Coronavirus und CEE: Wirtschaftsausblick im Zeichen der Viruskrise - Briefing für den BVMW - Bundesverband mittelständische Wirtschaft Dipl. Vw ...
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Coronavirus und CEE: Wirtschaftsausblick im Zeichen der Viruskrise Briefing für den BVMW - Bundesverband mittelständische Wirtschaft Dipl. Vw. Andreas Schwabe, MBA, CFA, Raiffeisen Bank International, Wien 28 Mai 2020, 16:00 MESZ
CE: COVID-19 rather contained – partly in SEE
Fewer deaths per million inhabitants in CEE region Cases per 100.000 mostly below DE and AT
450
600 580 425 412
546 400
545 375
500 350
437 325
300
400 275 254
250
304 225 217
300 200 184 188
175
150 139
129
200 125
97
100 85
74
101 75 59 55 50
47 39
100 72 50 37 35 28 28
64
5252 50 46
30 272727 25 23 19 25
17 1615 11
5 0
0
Austria
Czechia
Belarus
Bosnia a.H.
Hungary
Bulgaria
Turkey
Estonia
Serbia
Poland
Russia
Slovakia
Greece
Germany
Romania
Croatia
Ukraine
Kosovo
Albania
Germany
USA
Romania
Kosovo
Ukraine
Albania
Italy
Czechia
Serbia
Spain
France
Turkey
Poland
Russia
Bulgaria
Greece
Slovakia
Austria
Hungary
Estonia
Croatia
Bosnia a.H.
Belarus
UK
As of 27.05.2020
Source: ECDC, Worldometers.info, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 2Low case numbers, restrictive measures, exit plans
F a t a lit ie s S ho ps / C ult
C o nf irm e d C a s e s pe r T ested T e s t e d pe r D e a t hs pe r B o rde r
Co untry pe r c a s e s S c ho o ls ure ( e xc e pt R e s t a ura nt s
cases 10 0 ,0 0 0 pe rs o ns 10 0 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 re s t ric t io ns
( %) ba s ic ne e d)
Unit e d S t a t e s 1,745,911 530 15,877,027 4822 31.0 5.8 partly clo sed clo sed clo sed partly clo sed
R us s ia 379,051 258 9,701,280 6612 2.8 1.1 clo sed clo sed clo sed clo sed
clo sed
o pening up to o pening up to o pening up to
G e rm a ny 181,895 219 3,952,971 4764 10.3 4.7 (o pening mid-
states states states
June)
kindergarten and o pen under
o pen under new
P o la nd 22,600 60 824,774 2172 2.7 4.6 clo sed lo wer classes new sanitary
sanitary rules
o pen rules
B e la rus 39,858 420 499,249 5266 2.3 0.5 o pen o pen o pen o pen
A us t ria 16,541 185 427,372 4775 7.5 4.0 partly clo sed o pen o pen o pen
clo sed (A pr 24: 1st grade o f basic
C ze c hia 9103 86 424,423 3989 3.0 3.5 o pen o pen
o pening) scho o ls o pen
small sto res
R o m a nia 18,791 96 410,000 2100 6.3 6.5 clo sed clo sed clo sed
o pened
Uk ra ine 22,382 53 322,746 771 1.6 3.0 clo se clo sed clo sed clo sed
cpeninglo sed
S e rbia 11275 162 229,485 3292 3.4 2.1 clo sed o pen o pen
(o fro m 18.05)
clo sed (with o pen (except
H unga ry 3816 39 174,011 1783 5.2 13.3 clo sed o pen
exceptio ns) B udapest)Mobility Indicators – CEE coming back to live*
16.02.2020 01.03.2020 16.03.2020 01.04.2020 16.04.2020 02.05.2020 16.05.2020
Austria
Germany
Italy
Western Europe
Spain
United Kingdom
France
Czechia
Hungary
CE Poland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Bosnia and H.
Bulgaria
SEE Croatia
Romania
Serbia
Belarus
EE
Estonia
United States
South Korea
Other
Singapore
Turkey
Sweden
Norway
Northern Europe
Denmark
Finland
* Red represents less mobility, green represents more mobility as compared to the baseline.
Methodology: Principal component scores were used to create this heatmap, holidays were removed from the analysis.
Data on Russia not available. Baseline Google Mobility Data: 03.01.2020 – 06.02.2020, Baseline Apple Mobility Data:
13.01.2020
Sources: Apple, Google, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 4GDP: SK & CZ HAVE SUFFERED A DEEP SLUMP IN Q1
PL, HU, RO, BG held up relatively well
3
2.7
2 2.4
% yoy % qoq 1.9 2.0
1 1.6
0 -1.5
0.3 0.3
-1 -0.5 -0.4
-0.8
-2 -2.2
-3 -3.2
-3.9
-4 -3.6
-3.8
-5 -5.4
-6
Euro area
Russia
Slovakia
Czechia
Ukraine
Poland
Bulgaria
Romania
Hungary
Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 5GDP: Slump determined by some key characteristics
Real GDP (% yoy) 2019e 2020f 2021f ▪ Countries with the strongest /
Poland 4.1 -4.5 4.2 longest restrictions on economic
Hungary 4.9 -3.5 5 activity are at the bottom of the
Czech Republic 2.5 -7.6 6.6
list (e.g.: FR, IT).
Slovakia 2.3 -6 5
Central Europe 3.6 -5.1 4.9 ▪ Small / open economies with
Croatia 2.9 -8.5 3 strong integration in international
Bulgaria 3.4 -6 4 supply chains are particularly
Romania 4.1 -7 4.5
affected (e.g. AT, CZ, SK).
Serbia 4.2 -4 4.5
Bosnia a. H. 2.6 -5.2 3.3 ▪ Countries with a high share of the
Albania 2.2 -4 4
tourism sector are strongly
Kosovo 4.1 -3.5 4
affected (e.g.: HR, GR)
South-East Europe 3.7 -6.4 4.1
Russia 1.3 -4.9 2.8 ▪ Countries with fundamental
Ukraine 3.2 -5 3 weaknesses / economic
Belarus 1.2 -4.5 -0.5 imbalances have a difficult
Eastern Europe 1.5 -4.9 2.7 starting position (e.g.: RO)
Germany 0.6 -5.9 4.2
Austria 1.6 -7.2 5.9
Estonia 4.3 -7.5 7.9
Euro area 1.2 -6.5 4.9 Note: Forecast for Estonia from IMF (April 2020), else
own forecast
USA 2.3 -5.3 5.3 Source: National sources, IMF, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 6Both fiscal and monetary policy turns expansionary
Monetary policy easing by cutting key Comparison of fiscal packages in CEE (pp of
rates (ex HU) and other measures GDP)
35
Ukraine (8) -5.50
30
Turkey (8.75) -3.25 25
25.2
Czechia (0.25) -2.00 20
Poland (0.5) -1.00 15
16.8
Belarus (8.75) -1.00 10 15.0 6.4 3.5
9.2 2.0
Serbia (1.5) -0.75 5 9.8 2.8 0.5
7.5 7.6 7.0 1.5
3.9 3.0 4.5 4.6 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.1
0 2.4 2.0 2.3 0.7
1.5 0.7
1.3 2.1
0.6
Russia (5.5) -0.75
Romania (2) Rate cuts 2020
-0.50
Hungary (0.9) 0.95
Guarantees and payment deferrals, etc.
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 Direct support from state budget
Note: Current key rates in brackets. Source: Reuters, national sources RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
• Contrary to earlier crises we see strong monetary easing also in EM, including CEE. Not only rates are slashed
(except for HU), but also QE measures like bond buying introduced (HU, PL, RO, HR). Untested QE measures may
also backfire on financial markets. More rate cuts to come in Russia and Ukraine as well as in Romania and Serbia.
• Substantial fiscal packages let fiscal deficits and public debt in CEE rise, depending on the package and the
available fiscal space. Poorer countries already turned to IMF/IFI for external support, as IMF reacting quickly.
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 7COVID-19 possible future trends, mixed impact on CEE
Potential trend Impact on CEE
Positive for CE and parts of SEE in case of
De-Globalisation (near-shoring, regionalisation)
European regionalisation trend
Push for more Digitalisation Opportunity for CEE given IT outsourcing
Less mobility in work/tourism, less remittances Clearly negative for some CEE countries
Problematic for fiscally weaker countries,
Higher public debt burden & new taxes
competitive edge of CE region?
Risk of less competition/growth in states with
Stronger role of the state in the economy
weak institutions
Weaker countries in SEE/EE may have more
Stronger disparities in CEE region
difficulties to catch up
Mainly Russia/Belarus to suffer, lower trend
More permanent energy price weakness
growth rather 1% vs 2%
If EU to look rather inwards, possibly negative for
CEE & EU relations Western Balkans / Ukraine (despite recent
support packages)
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 8BACKUP SLIDES May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 9
Stress scenarios: What if the pandemic takes longer to fight?
Real GDP development in case of
• We also estimated downsides scenarios on
Czech Republic (2019=100)
harsher COVID-19 shocks:
105
• “COVID-19 ongoing”: If the pandemic crisis
100 is prolonged into early 2021 (e.g. by a second
wave), the recovery is interrupted/delayed by
95 2-3 quarters.
• States would unlikely revert to full lockdown
90 measures, being better prepared by then
opting for “smart(er)” containment measures.
85
• Still could take much longer to return to 2019
levels. An additional loss of estimated 5 pp of
80
GDP would be only recovered over several
years with partial permanent losses.
75
• “COVID out of control”: Though, even more
2015
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
negative scenarios where we would see even
BASE CASE
S1: COVID-19 out of control almost no economic recovery on a 2-3 year
S2: COVID-19 on-going horizon are highly unlikely in our view.
Source: Reuters, national sources RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 10New Infections
Europe vs. Asia vs. CEE
New infections in selected countries New infections in selected countries
China ex Hubei 1 = Jan. 23; South Korea 1 = Feb. 21; Italy 1 = Feb. 26; Czechia 1 = Mar. 09; Poland 1 = Mar. 15; Slovakia 1 = Mar.
Germany 1 = Mar. 5; Spain 1 = Mar. 6; Russia 1 = Mar. 18 19; Romania 1 = Mar. 15; Hungary = Mar. 21; Austria = Mar. 9
14000 1200
11.102
12000
1000
10000
New confirmed cases
800
New confirmed cases
8338
8000
600
6000
400
4000
2000 200
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
Days since outbreak reached 100 confirmed cases Days since outbreak reached 100 confirmed cases
China (excl. Hubei) South Korea
Italy Germany Austria Czech Republic Poland
Spain Russia Slovakia Romania Hungary
Source: ECDC, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 11Timeline loosening restrictions Covid-19 in CE
Plans with
Country Sector Current State H1 April H2 April H1 May H2 May
unspecified date
Closed/Parks and
Border/public space Closed/restricted partially closed
forests open
Schools Closed Kindergartens open Schools
Poland
Open under Libraries, museums, public
Shops/Culture Closed
sanitary rules events < 50 people, gyms
Restaurants Closed Hotels and restaurants
Closed (Outbound travel Public space: Small
Border/public space Larger groups
allowed) groups allowed
Czech Schools Closed
Republic Large shops (June), larger
Shops/Culture Closed (with exceptions) Small shops Larger shops, Gyms All shops and services
events
Outdoor seating Restaurants without
Restaurants Closed All restaurants
opened conditions (June)
Border closed/ no public
Border/public space
space restrictions
Schools Closed In June full functioning
Slovakia Selected shops
Up to 300m2
In June full functioning
Shops/Culture Closed (with exceptions) opened/
opened
no cultural events
Without direct
Outdoor seating
Restaurants Closed contact/through In June full functioning
opened
windows
Borders partly
Border/public space Closed/restricted
closed/opened
Schools closed Schools open
Austria Large
Shops/Culture Closed (with exceptions) Small shops
shops/hairdressers
Hotels/
Restaurants closed
Restaurants open
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 12OIL MARKET: Demand shortfall pressures prices
90
80
70
60
50
50 45
40 35
30
25
20
10
Jun-19
Jun-18
Jun-20
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Brent USD Forward Curve Base Scenario
Source: Refintiv, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH as of 06.05.2020 01:03 PM GMT
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 13CEE: FX market and forecast overview
CEE FX was oversold after the coronavirus shock and
vs. EUR current* Jun.20 Dec.20
bounced back with the announcement of stimulus and
Poland PLN 4.55 4.47 4.45
the gradual opening of major economies from the
lockdowns. Hungary HUF 350.39 353.00 347.00
Czech Rep. CZK 27.54 27.00 26.00
Although we remain cautious in the short-term, we think Romania RON 4.83 4.90 5.00
that EM FX trades still on the cheap side and should
Croatia HRK 7.56 7.55 7.65
stabilise until June.
Serbia RSD 117.58 117.70 118.00
Recent PMI releases support our dire growth estimates. Russia RUB 79.43 87.69 80.23
These economic numbers got partially reflected in the Ukraine UAH 28.97 29.97 30.51
value of the exchange rates. Belarus BYN 2.64 3.11 3.05
Switzerland CHF 1.05 1.06 1.09
CEE market FX spot rates lost about 8-9% ytd (CZ, PL, HU,
RU, UA), which stands in contrast to the decline in the US USD 1.08 1.11 1.13
Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 amounting to 13- vs. USD current* Jun.20 Dec.20
14% and to Romania and Croatia hardly losing any Russia RUB 73.41 79.00 71.00
ground on the FX side (down about 1-2% ytd). Ukraine UAH 26.77 27.00 27.00
Belarus BYN 2.44 2.80 2.70
However, prior to the GFC of 2008 there were significant
Turkey TRY 7.03 6.90 6.80
macro-financial imbalances in CEE, which is not the
case today. China CNY 7.09 7.00 6.80
Source: Bloomberg, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 14Another systematic shock with consequences on FX
FX spot performance per year CEE FX was oversold after the coronavirus
(index starts at 1) shock and bounced back with the
1.1 announcement of stimulus and the gradual
opening of major economies from the
lockdowns.
1.05
Although we remain cautious in the short-term,
we think that EM FX trades still on the cheap
1 side and should stabilize until June.
Recent PMI releases support our dire growth
0.95 estimates. These economic numbers got
partially reflected in the value of the exchange
rates.
0.9
CEE market FX spot rates lost about 8-9% ytd
(CZ, PL, HU, RU, UA), which stands in contrast to
the decline in the Great Financial Crisis (GFC)
0.85
of 2008 amounting to 13-14% and to Romania
and Croatia hardly losing any ground on the FX
0.8
side (down about 1-2% ytd).
12 02 04 06 08 10 12
However, prior to the GFC of 2008 there were
CEE FX Av. 2008 CEE FX Av. 2011 significant macro-financial imbalances in CEE,
CEE FX Av. 2020 which is not the case today.
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 15Manufacturing PMI in April show strong hit in CE-3*/RU
60
49.4
55
50
45
40.3
40.9
40
36.3 33.4
35 33.5
33.8 32.6 31.3
30
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19
Russia Manufacturing CE-3 avg. China (Caixin) Turkey
* CE-3: PL, CZ, HU; Source: Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 16Public debt overhang leading to higher taxes
Debt increase 2020 preliminary estimates (% of GDP) • After the financial crisis, public debt in
the euro rea rose by 16pp to GDP. So far,
140 14
12.8 12.7 we estimate a hike of almost 10pp
12.8
120
10.9
12 • But the rise could become easily steeper
10.3
with some expecting debt to rise by 15-
100 8.4 10
8.9 20pp in developed markets - depending
80 7.3 8
on the difficulties to restart the economy
6.9 4.5
4.5 • CEE countries will be no exception with
60 6
5.1 5.1 hard hit countries like Croatia seen to
increase public debt by more than 10pp,
40 4
which may drag on growth in CEE.
20 2 • However, we see also a strong variation,
0.0 0.0 with some countries like Russia not
0 0
willing/required to taker on substantially
new debt!
• Moreover, the crisis may impact tax
levels (low in CE) and structure (wealth
2019 2020e Corona hit (pp, right scale)
taxes?), which yet not known effects
Source: National Sources, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 17CEE: Eurobond market overview
EM FCY bond market risk re-pricing (bp)*
1000
Argentina Lehman
Brazil
800
Covid-19
600
400
200
0
May-01 Jul-04 Sep-07 Nov-10 Jan-14 Mar-17 May-20
Global CEE
* Spread in basis points, EMBI Global indices; CEE = CE+SEE+EE+Turkey; Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 18CEE MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE – DECREASING TABOOS
UNCONVENTIONAL
CONVENTIONAL AMMUNITION
QE QE-LIKE
Cum. 200bp rate cuts recently; cut of Further cuts to CCyB and
Czech National Legal foundations for QE laid, but CNB Higher frequency of repo operations (3x instead
counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB) RRR; QE and FX
Bank (CNB) announced to use QE only as emergency tool. of 1x per week).
to 1%. interventions; LTROs.
MP tightening via introduction of 0.90% Corp. bond purchases (max. maturity 20y and Repo operations: easing of collateral rules (corp. HUF fragility to not allow
Hungarian 1w depo and hike of o/n lending rate to MNB participation up to HUF 50 bn). MBS QE re- loans with 30% haircut eligible). New fixed-rate for rate cuts, but
National Bank 1.85%. 1w tenor added to HUF-creating starts; HGB QE set at initial HUF 1000 bn or 4.4% of covered loan program with unlimited liquidity for extension of LTRO access
(MNB) FX swaps (1m-12m tenors); RRR cut to HGBs oustanding but can be lifted to up to 33%. up to 5y with access extended to local open- to further market players
0%. Focus 3y+ tenors. Partly direct debt monetization. ended funds. imaginable.
Further RRR, but base rate
Govt bond purchases (POLGB) - NBP already
cuts unlikely; corp bond
National Bank 100 bp base rate cut to 0.50% and RRR actively buying, partly direct debt monetization;
Re-launch of repo operations. buying and/or HU-style
of Poland (NBP) cut to 0.5%. buys also other state guaranteed bonds. Details
repo colleteral rules
intransparent.
easing.
Govt bond purchases (ROMGB), BNR started
Further reduction of
National Bank buying most recently; details not published, but
50bp rate cut; lowering of RRR to 8%; RRR/CCyB, but also rates
of Romania purchased amounts likely low so far. QE and FX Stepped-up repo operations.
CCyB; FX interventions. amidst stepepd-up FX/QE
(BNR) intervnetions as balancing act / dilemma in terms
interventions.
of FX.
Govt. bond purchases (HRK, EUR-linked): HNB
Croatian Re-launch of FX interventions (cum. EUR bought three times so far in cum. amount of HRK
Ongoing 5y LTRO; EUR 2 bn swap line with ECB Further RRR cuts;
National Bank 2.5 bn sold to banks so far); cut in RRR to 13.82 bn or EUR 1.82 bn equivalent (~10.5% of total
until end-2020, possibly longer. stepped-up LTROs.
(HNB) 9%. outstanding). Romania-style dilemma: QE vs FX
interventions.
National Bank 75bp rate cut to 1.50% in Mar/Apr; Intensified repo operations; new 2w and 3m Further rate and CCyB
of Serbia (NBS) CCyB; ongoing FX interventions. fixed-points FX swaps provide cheap funding. cuts: LTRO/QE less likely.
Rate cuts to 5.25% per
After -175bp between mid-2019 and end-2020 (current:
Central Bank of Recent push for more active participation of big
Feb-2020, short pause and recently 5.50%). Corp. bond QE;
Russia (CBR) state-owned banks in OFZ primary market.
resumption by -50bp; CCyB; USD selling. OFZ QE if foreign mass
liquidations.
National Bank 1000bp rate cuts since Q3 2018, 300bp Reintroduction of 1y and 5y refinancing Further rate cuts to 7.00%
of Ukraine (NBU) in Mar to 8.00%; CCyB; FX interventions. operations and to CCyB possible.
most important measures in green Source: National Central Banks, ThomsonReuters, Bloomberg, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 19CE-3 & SEE-3: Corona-hit vs. GFC hit*
CE-3* SEE-3*
Real GDP (% HH cons. (real, % GFCF (real, % Real GDP (% HH cons. (real, % GFCF (real, %
yoy) yoy) yoy) yoy) yoy) yoy)
0 0
-2
-3
-4
-6
-6
-9
-8
-12
-10
-12 -15
2009 2020e 2009 & 2010 2020e
* CE-3: CZ, HU, SK (GDP weighted); SEE-3: RO, BG, HR (GDP weighted); for SEE scale capped at -15, aggregated 2009/2010 GFCF drop at -35(!)%;
Source: RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
• For core CE/SEE markets 2020 hit in GDP components possibly more similar to the 2009 hit; or the
aggregated 2009/2010 hit (e.g. in SEE-3, a region that suffered heavily from a longer-lasting
stagnation following the GFC)
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 20Risk notifications and explanations Warnings ▪ Figures on performance refer to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator for future results and the development of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service. This is particularly true in cases when the financial instrument, financial index or securities service has been offered for less than 12 months. In particular, this very short comparison period is not a reliable indicator for future results. ▪ Performance of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service is reduced by commissions, fees and other charges, which depend on the individual circumstances of the investor. ▪ The return on an investment in a financial instrument, a financial or securities service can rise or fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. ▪ Forecasts of future performance are based purely on estimates and assumptions. Actual future performance may deviate from the forecast. Consequently, forecasts are not a reliable indicator for future results and the development of a financial instrument, a financial index or a securities service. Any information and recommendations designated as such in this publication which are contributed by analysts from RBI’s subsidiary banks or from Raiffeisen Centrobank (“RCB”) are disseminated unaltered under RBI’s responsibility. A description of the concepts and methods used in the preparation of financial analyses is available under: www.raiffeisenresearch.com/concept_and_methods Detailed information on sensitivity analyses (procedure for checking the stability of potential assumptions made in the context of financial analyses) is available under: www.raiffeisenresearch.com/sensitivity_analysis Disclosure of circumstances and interests which may jeopardise the objectivity of RBI: www.raiffeisenresearch.com/disclosuresobjectivity May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 21
Risk notifications and explanations
The distribution of all recommendations relating to the 3 months prior to the publications date (column A), as well as the distribution of
recommendations in the context of which services of investment firms set out in Sections A (investment services and activities) and B
(ancillary services) of Annex I of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council (“special services”) have been
provided in the past 12 months (column B).
Column B
Column A
Basis: Recommendations for financial instruments of all
Investment recommendation Basis: All recommendations for all
issuers, for which special services were rendered in the
financial instruments (last 3 months)
last 12 months
Buy recommendations
48.1% 37.0%
Hold recommendations
35.5% 14.8%
Sell recommendations
16.4% 48.1%
Detailed information on recommendations concerning financial instruments or issuers disseminated during a period
of 12 month prior to this publication (acc. to Art. 4 (1) i) Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of
9.3.2016) is available under: https://raiffeisenresearch.com/web/rbi-research-portal/recommendation_history
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 22Disclosure
Western government bonds
Outright: Recommendations concerning financial instruments or issuers Spread: Recommendations concerning financial instruments or issuers (disseminated during a
(disseminated during a period of 12 month prior to this publication), which period of 12 month prior to this publication), which differ from recommendations made in this
differ from recommendations made in this publication with a publication with a recommendation horizon of 1-4 months
recommendation horizon of 1-4 months
Issuer AT-DE FR-DE IT-DE ES-DE IE-DE PT-DE DE-DE SI-DE
DE US
Issuer
Maturity segment 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y 10Y-10Y
Maturity 2Y 5Y 10Y 2Y 10Y
segment 11/04/2019 Buy Hold Hold Buy Hold Sell Sell Hold
22/03/2019 Sell Sell Sell Hold Hold 03/05/2019 I I I Hold I I I I
24/05/2019 I I I I I I Hold I
10/05/2019 I Sell Sell I I
31/05/2019 I I I I I I Sell I
31/05/2019 Sell Sell Sell I I 07/06/2019 Buy Hold Hold Hold Hold Sell I Buy
21/06/2019 Sell Sell Hold Buy Buy 14/06/2019 I I I I I I I Hold
21/06/2019 I Buy I I Buy I Sell Buy
09/08/2019 I I Sell Hold Hold
28/06/2019 I I I I I Hold I I
30/08/2019 Sell Sell Sell Hold Hold 19/07/2019 I Hold I I Hold I I Hold
02/08/2019 I I Sell Buy I I I I
13/09/2019 Sell Sell Hold I I
09/08/2019 I I I I Buy I I I
11/10/2019 I Hold I I I
30/08/2019 Buy Hold Hold Buy Buy Hold Sell Hold
18/10/2019 I Buy Buy I I 13/09/2019 I I I I I I Sell I
20/09/2019 I I Buy I I I I Buy
06/12/2019 Sell Hold Buy Buy Buy
11/10/2019 I I I I I I Hold I
31/01/2020 I Sell Hold Hold Hold 08/11/2019 I I I I Hold I I I
25/02/2020 I I I Hold Hold No No No No No No No
06/12/2019 recommen recommenda recommenda recommenda recommenda recommenda Hold recommenda
28/02/2020 Sell Sell Sell I I dation tion tion tion tion tion tion
12/12/2019 Buy Hold Buy Hold Hold Hold I Buy
10/03/2020 I I I Hold Hold
31/01/2020 I I Hold I I I I I
19/03/2020 Sell Hold Buy I I
20/02/2020 Hold I I I I I I I
20/03/2020 I I I Hold Buy 28/02/2020 Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Sell Buy
27/03/2020 I I Sell Sell I I I I
03/04/2020 I I I I Hold
24/04/2020 I I Hold Hold I I I I
I ... no change
I ... no change
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 23Disclosure:
Government bonds CEE, Local currency bonds
Local currency government bonds: Recommendations concerning financial instruments or issuers (disseminated during a period of 12 month prior to this publication), which differ from recommendations made in this publication*
CZ HU PL RO RS RU TR
Date 2y 10y 2y 10y 2y 10y 2y 10y 2y 10y 2y 10y 2y 10y
21/01/2019 H H S S H B S S H H S S H H
01/03/2019 H H S S H B H H H H S S B I
21/03/2019 H H S S B B H H B B S S I B
03/04/2019 I I H H I I I I I I I I I I
12/04/2019 I I I I I I I I I I I I H H
30/04/2019 I I I I I I I I I I H H I I
02/05/2019 H H H B B B H H B B H H I I
29/05/2019 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
28/06/2019 B H H I H B S S I I H H I I
14/08/2019 I I I H I I I I I I I I I I
28/08/2019 I I I I I I H H I I I I I I
05/09/2019 H H H H B B I I I I B B I I
19/09/2019 H H H H B B H H B B B B B B
16/10/2019 I I I I I I I I I I I I H H
25/10/2019 I I I I I I I I I I I I B I
31/10/2019 B B I I I I S S I I I I I B
13/12/2019 B B H H B B S S B B B B H H
06/02/2020 B B H H H H H H B B B B I I
* recommendations based on absolute expected price performance in LCY and FX performance vs EUR (recommendation for EUR-based investors) for the short-term horizon (~ 1-4 months); B: Buy, H: Hold, S: Sell, I: no change; Source: RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 24Disclosure:
Government bonds CEE Sovereign Eurobonds
Sovereign Eurobonds: Recommendations concerning financial instruments or issuers (disseminated during a period of 12 month prior to this publication), which differ from
recommendations made in this publication*
BG BY CZ HR HU KZ LT
Date EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD
21/03/2019 H - - H H - H H H H H H H H
02/05/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
29/05/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
19/06/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
26/06/2019 I - - B I - I I B I B I I I
05/09/2019 I - - H I - S S H I H I I I
19/09/2019 H - - H I - S S H H H H H H
16/10/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
25/10/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
31/10/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
28/11/2019 I - - I I - I I I I I I I I
13/12/2019 I - - I I - H H I I B B I I
06/02/2020 I n.r. n.r. I I I I I I I H H I I
10/03/2020 I n.r. I I I I I I I I S S I I
* recommendations based on absolute expected performance, i.e. expected spread change for the short-term horizon (~ 1-4 months); B: Buy, H: Hold, S: Sell, I: no change, n.r.: no recommendation; Source: RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 25Disclosure:
Government bonds CEE Sovereign Eurobonds
Sovereign Eurobonds: Recommendations concerning financial instruments or issuers (disseminated during a period of 12 month prior to this publication), which differ from
recommendations made in this publication*
MK PL RO RS RU TR UA
Date EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD EUR USD
21/03/2019 H - H H B B - H B B B B I B
02/05/2019 H - I I H H - I H H H H I I
29/05/2019 I - I I I I - I I I B B I I
19/06/2019 I - I I I I B I I I I I I I
26/06/2019 B - B I I I I I I I I I B I
05/09/2019 I - H I B B H I B B I I I I
19/09/2019 B - H H B B H H B B B B B B
16/10/2019 I - I I I I I I I I H H I I
25/10/2019 I - I I I I I I I I B B I I
31/10/2019 H - I I S S I I I I I I I I
28/11/2019 I - I I I I I I I I I I H H
13/12/2019 I - I I I I I I H H H H B B
06/02/2020 I n.r. I I H H I I I I I I I I
10/03/2020
I n.r. I I I I I I S S I I H H
* recommendations based on absolute expected performance, i.e. expected spread change for the short-term horizon (~ 1-4 months); B: Buy, H: Hold, S: Sell, I: no change, n.r.: no recommendation; Source: RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH
May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 26Disclaimer Disclaimer Financial Analysis Responsible for this publication: Raiffeisen Bank International AG („RBI“) RBI is a credit institution according to §1 Banking Act (Bankwesengesetz) with the registered office Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, Austria. Raiffeisen RESEARCH is an organisational unit of RBI. Supervisory authority: As a credit institution (acc. to § 1 Austrian Banking Act; Bankwesengesetz) Raiffeisen Bank International AG is subject to the supervision by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA, Finanzmarktaufsicht) and the National Bank of Austria (OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank). Additionally, RBI is subject to the supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB), which undertakes such supervision within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), which consists of the ECB and the national responsible authorities (Council Regulation (EU) No 1024/2013 - SSM Regulation). Unless set out herein explicitly otherwise, references to legal norms refer to norms enacted by the Republic of Austria. This document is for information purposes and may not be reproduced or distributed to other persons without RBI’s permission. This document constitutes neither a solicitation of an offer nor a prospectus in the sense of the Austrian Capital Market Act (Kapitalmarktgesetz) or the Austrian Stock Exchange Act (Börsegesetz) or any other comparable foreign law. An investment decision in respect of a financial instrument, a financial product or an investment (all hereinafter “product”) must be made on the basis of an approved, published prospectus or the complete documentation for such a product in question, and not on the basis of this document. This document does not constitute a personal recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments in the sense of the Austrian Securities Supervision Act (Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz). Neither this document nor any of its components shall form the basis for any kind of contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is not a substitute for the necessary advice on the purchase or sale of a financial instrument, a financial product or advice on an investment. In respect of the sale or purchase of one of the above mentioned products, your banking advisor can provide individualised advice suitable for investments and financial products. This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the analysis has obtained exclusively on the basis of his/her client relationship to a person. Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, RBI deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances regarding its accuracy and completeness. May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 27
Disclaimer In emerging markets, there may be higher settlement and custody risk as compared to markets with established infrastructure. The liquidity of stocks/financial instruments may be influenced, amongst others, by the number of market makers. Both of these circumstances can result in elevated risk in relation to the safety of investments made in consideration of the information contained in this document. The information in this publication is current as per the latter’s creation date. It may be outdated by future developments, without the publication being changed. Unless otherwise expressly stated (www.raiffeisenresearch.com/special_compensation), the analysts employed by RBI are not compensated for specific investment banking transactions. Compensation of the author or authors of this report is based (amongst other things) on the overall profitability of RBI, which includes, inter alia, earnings from investment banking and other transactions of RBI. In general, RBI forbids its analysts and persons reporting to the analysts from acquiring securities or other financial instruments of any enterprise which is covered by the analysts, unless such acquisition is authorised in advance by RBI’s Compliance Department. RBI has put in place the following organisational and administrative agreements, including information barriers, to impede or prevent conflicts of interest in relation to recommendations: RBI has designated fundamentally binding confidentiality zones. These are typically units within credit institutions, which are isolated from other units by organisational measures governing the exchange of information, because compliance-relevant information is continuously or temporarily handled in these zones. Compliance-relevant information may fundamentally not leave a confidentiality zone and is to be treated as strictly confidential in internal business operations, including interaction with other units. This does not apply to the transfer of information necessary for usual business operations. Such transfer of information is limited, however, to what is absolutely necessary (need-to-know principle). The exchange of compliance-relevant information between two confidentiality zones may only occur with the involvement of the Compliance Officer. May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 28
Disclaimer SPECIAL REGULATIONS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND (UK): This document does not constitute either a public offer in the meaning of the Austrian Capital Market Act (in German: Kapitalmarktgesetz; hereinafter „KMG“) nor a prospectus in the meaning of the KMG or of the Austrian Stock Exchange Act (in German: Börsegesetz). Furthermore this document does not intend to recommend the purchase or the sale of securities or investments in the meaning of the Austrian Supervision of Securities Act (in German: Wertpapieraufsichtsgesetz). This document shall not replace the necessary advice concerning the purchase or the sale of securities or investments. For any advice concerning the purchase or the sale of securities of investments kindly contact your RAIFFEISENBANK. Special regulations for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK): this publication has been either approved or issued by Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI) in order to promote its investment business. Raiffeisen Bank International AG, London Branch is authorised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. This publication is not intended for investors who are Retail Customers within the meaning of the FCA rules and should therefore not be distributed to them. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitute or are to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy (or sell) investments. RBI may have affected an Own Account Transaction within the meaning of FCA rules in any investment mentioned herein or related investments and or may have a position or holding in such investments as a result. RBI may have been, or might be, acting as a manager or co- manager of a public offering of any securities mentioned in this report or in any related security. SPECIFIC RESTRICTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This document may not be transmitted to, or distributed within, the United States of America or Canada or their respective territories or possessions, nor may it be distributed to any U.S. person or any person resident in Canada, unless it is provided directly through RB International Markets (USA) LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer (‘RBIM’), and subject to the terms set forth below. SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND CANADA: This research document is intended only for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards that may be applicable to research documents prepared for retail investors. This report was provided to you by RB International Markets (USA) LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer (‘RBIM’), but was prepared by our non-U.S. affiliate, Raiffeisen Bank International AG (RBI). Any order for the purchase or sale of securities covered by this report must be placed with RBIM. You can reach RBIM at 1177 Avenue of the Americas, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10036, 212-600-2588. This document was prepared outside the United States by one or more analysts who may not have been subject to rules regarding the preparation of reports and the independence of research analysts comparable to those in effect in the United States. The analyst or analysts who prepared this research (i) are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) in the United States, and (ii) are not allowed to be associated persons of RBIM and are therefore not subject to FINRA regulations, including regulations related to the conduct or independence of research analysts. May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 29
Disclaimer The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of RBI only as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable by RBI, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by RBI or its affiliated companies or any other person as to the report’s accuracy, completeness or correctness. Securities which are not registered in the United States may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to U.S. persons (within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act of 1933 [the ‘Securities Act’]), except pursuant to an exemption under the Securities Act. This report does not constitute an offer with respect to the purchase or sale of any security within the meaning of Section 5 of the Securities Act and neither shall this report nor anything contained herein form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This report provides general information only. In Canada it may only be distributed to persons who are resident in Canada and who, by virtue of their exemption from the prospectus requirements of the applicable provincial or territorial securities laws, are entitled to conduct trades in the securities described herein. EU REGULATION NO 833/2014 CONCERNING RESTRICTIVE MEASURES IN VIEW OF RUSSIA’S ACTIONS DESTABILISING THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE Please note that research is done and recommendations are given only in respect of financial instruments which are not affected by the sanctions under EU regulation no 833/2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended from time to time, i.e. financial instruments which have been issued before 1 August 2014. We wish to call to your attention that the acquisition of financial instruments with a term exceeding 30 days issued after 31 July 2014 is prohibited under EU regulation no 833/2014 concerning restrictive measures in view of Russia's actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine, as amended from time to time. No opinion is given with respect to such prohibited financial instruments. INFORMATION REGARDING THE PRINCIPALITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN: COMMISSION DIRECTIVE 2003/125/EC of 22 December 2003 implementing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards the fair presentation of investment recommendations and the disclosure of conflicts of interest has been incorporated into national law in the Principality of Liechtenstein by the Finanzanalyse- Marktmissbrauchs-Verordnung. If any term of this Disclaimer is found to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable under any applicable law, such term shall, insofar as it is severable from the remaining terms, be deemed omitted from this Disclaimer; it shall in no way affect the legality, validity or enforceability of the remaining terms. May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 30
Imprint Information requirements pursuant to the Austrian E-Commerce Act Raiffeisen Bank International AG Registered Office: Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna Postal address: 1010 Vienna, POB 50; Phone: +43-1-71707-0; Fax: + 43-1-71707-1848 Company Register Number: FN 122119m at the Commercial Court of Vienna VAT Identification Number: UID ATU 57531200 Austrian Data Processing Register: Data processing register number (DVR): 4002771 S.W.I.F.T.-Code: RZBA AT WW Supervisory Authorities: Supervisory authority: As a credit institution (acc. to § 1 Austrian Banking Act; Bankwesengesetz) Raiffeisen Bank International AG is subject to the supervision by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA, Finanzmarktaufsicht) and the National Bank of Austria (OeNB, Oesterreichische Nationalbank). Additionally, RBI is subject to the supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB), which undertakes such supervision within the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), which consists of the ECB and the national responsible authorities (Council Regulation (EU) No 1024/2013 - SSM Regulation). Unless set out herein explicitly otherwise, references to legal norms refer to norms enacted by the Republic of Austria. Membership: Austrian Federal Economic Chamber, Federal Bank and Insurance Sector, Raiffeisen Association Statement pursuant to the Austrian Media Act Publisher and editorial office of this publication: Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Vienna Media Owner of this publication: Raiffeisen RESEARCH – Verein zur Verbreitung von volkswirtschaftlichen Analysen und Finanzmarktanalysen Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Vienna Executive Committee of Raiffeisen RESEARCH – Verein zur Verbreitung von volkswirtschaftlichen Analysen und Finanzmarktanalysen: Mag. Peter Brezinschek (Chairman), Mag. Helge Rechberger (Vice-Chairman) Raiffeisen RESEARCH – Verein zur Verbreitung von volkswirtschaftlichen Analysen und Finanzmarktanalysen is constituted as state-registered society. Purpose and activity are (inter alia), the distribution of analysis, data, forecasts and reports and similar publications related to the Austrian and international economy as well as financial markets. May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 31
Imprint Basic tendency of the content of this publication: Presentation of activities of Raiffeisen Bank International AG and its subsidiaries in the area of conducting analysis related to the Austrian and international economy as well as the financial markets. Publishing of analysis according to various methods of analyses covering economics, interest rates and currencies, government and corporate bonds, equities as well as commodities with a regional focus on the euro area and Central and Eastern Europe under consideration of the global markets. Producer of this publication: Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Am Stadtpark 9, A-1030 Wien Editor: Andreas Schwabe; RBI Vienna; Completed: 28/05/2020, 15:00 PM CEST; First dissemination: 28/05/2020, 16:00 PM CEST May 20 Please note the risk notifications and explanations at the end of this document 32
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