Continental Overview: Influence of regional and international bodies reasserts itself Featured Analysis: North Korea's African inroads come to an ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Continental Overview: Influence of regional and
international bodies reasserts itself
Featured Analysis: North Korea’s African inroads come
to an end
Informed Insights: The prospects for conflict-resolution
in Libya
Country-specific analyses across all 5 African regions
A UN patrol in the eastern
Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC)
An In On Africa (IOA) Publication AUGUST 2016 EDITION
ISSN 2311-6943
AFRICA WIDE LETTER FROM FOUNDING EDITOR
4 Continental Overview: Influence The eventful month of July 2016 provided
of regional and international bodies varied and intriguing developments in conflict
reasserts itself and conflict resolution on the often-conflicted
African continent. South Sudan’s tumult grew
9 Featured Analysis: North Korea’s from a local trouble to a continental concern,
African inroads come to an end and was the main topic of the African Union
(AU) Summit in Rwanda in July. The AU is
18 Monitoring Economies: Too big called upon to play an ever more intricate role
to fail: South Africa’s strong economic in restoring peace to conflicted areas, and
fundamentals eclipse election-year faces its toughest challenge in South Sudan
conflict should AU troops be deployed there. ACM
will pursue each development and, as always,
24 Informed Insights: The prospects contextualise whatever occurs within recent
for conflict-resolution in Libya – An history, the region and Africa itself. It is this
ACM interview with Arsalan Alshinawi method of placing even minute occurrences,
from a hijacked ship in the Gulf of Guinea to
REGIONAL ANALYSIS 9 the flight of a refugee family from Burundi,
into a broader historical and social matrix that
characterises ACM’s analysis.
29 North Africa: Tunisia’s spirit of
The month of July brought new wrinkles
rebellion has a dark side that spawns
to the decades-old sagas of such African
terrorists
autocrats as Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir and
36 East Africa: Netanyahu’s diplomatic Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe. The story arc
of international players on the continent like
mission turns the tide on Africa’s
Israel and North Korea saw new chapters
relationship with Israel
written, with Israel cementing relationships
43 West Africa: Additional with African partners while North Korea
saw historic relations unravel. While these
peacekeepers in Mali a good start to fix
stories are fascinating in their own right,
the troubled mission
50 Central Africa: The Democratic
24 they are better appreciated within an even
larger story arc, that of post-independence,
post-Cold War Africa. International relations
Republic of Congo is the latest African
are shifting with new realities. Economic
country whose fate is tied to a leader’s
and environmental challenges are sufficient
ambitions
for most African leaders to look anew at
59 Southern Africa: Zimbabwe’s past alliances. Britain’s departure from the
European Union is one such development
domestic opposition to Mugabe’s rule
that is prompting foreign policy reviews in
intensifies
many African capitals.
BACK PAGES As always, we benefit from reader response
50
to report content. We welcome contributions
from analysts who have thoughts on African
67 ACM Countries in Focus: conflict and conflict resolution issues. Please
Burkina Faso & Niger contact us.
71 Final Analysis: Time for the world to Ufundze kahle! (“Read well!”)
hold Rwanda’s government accountable
for repressive policies at home and
destabilising practices in Central Africa
James Hall
80 Featured ACM Partner: Oxpeckers Founding Editor, ACM
Email: james@inonafrica.com
August 2016 Edition
81 Coming Up in ACM Tweet ACM on any issue:
@hallaboutafrica
71
82 Publication Information
Cover photo courtesy MONUSCO/Sylvain Liechti/Flickr
PUBLISHER Jonathan Mundell FOUNDING EDITOR James Hall ASSOCIATE EDITOR Kyle Hiebert CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS Catherine Akurut,
Isaac Ogbodu, Abdi Jama Ghedi, Israel Kodiaga, Graham Lee, Mohammed Maoulidi, Conway Waddington PRODUCTION COORDINATOR Claire
Furphy RESEARCH ASSOCIATES Diego Ali, Fidelis Okonkwo, Pawel Tverskoi COMMERCE COMMENTARIES Mohammed Maoulidi INVESTOR
INSIGHTS Adam Choppin COPY EDITING Dominique Gilbert, Liezl Stretton DESIGN Hayley Dodrill
For best viewing of ACM, switch the page display of your PDF reader to Two-Page view, and enable “Show Cover Page in Two Page View”
2 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd
NORTH AFRICA
EGYPT | Government efforts to eradicate ISIS in the Sinai are
bearing results, but a fixation on stifling freedoms is grating on civil society. On
4 August, the Egyptian military released a statement claiming that it had killed
the leader of ISIS’ Sinai branch along with 45 other ISIS fighters in airstrikes
near el-Arish. Meanwhile, Egypt’s leading association of Muslim scholars
derided the Ministry of Religious Endowments for issuing stock sermons to
imams to supposedly help dial back extremist messaging.
MOROCCO | Despite deciding to apply for re-admission into the African
Union (AU), comments from King Mohammed VI during a nationally-televised
address on 31 July show that Rabat remains loathe to relinquish its claim of
ownership over the Western Sahara. Morocco is the only African nation that
does not belong to the AU, after having left in 1984 in protest of the AU’s ruling
that the Sahrawi peoples should have sovereignty over the disputed territory.
WEST AFRICA EAST AFRICA
THE GAMBIA | Retrograde despot Yahya UGANDA | President Yoweri Museveni
Jammeh is purging his regime of anyone that could appears to have shredded the last legal obstacle
emerge as a political opponent or prove that he has preventing him from staying in power for life. Following
personally bankrupted the nation. On 8 August, a US- the repeal of a cap on presidential terms in 2005,
based activist news network run by members of the Museveni’s ruling party passed a motion on 2 August
Gambian diaspora reported that Jammeh is now even abolishing presidential age limits. Museveni can now run
bypassing his infamous intelligence agency to pursue for re-election in 2021 when he will be 76 years old – a
personal vendettas against top government officials. year older than the previous limit allowed.
NIGERIA | Steadily losing territory and now contending SUDAN | Protracted conflicts in Blue Nile, Darfur and
with a splintering of allegiance to changing leadership,
South Kordofan regions have inched closer to resolution.
terror group Boko Haram is reaching for whatever
leverage it can still muster. A new video released on 14 On 8 August, a coalition of rebel factions and political
August showed some 50 of the Chibok schoolgirls held opposition groups signed an AU-brokered roadmap to
captive since April 2014; a masked militant alleging peace agreed to by Khartoum in March 2016. Next steps
numerous girls had been killed by Nigerian airstrikes involve the two sides negotiating terms for a permanent
against the group – a claim debunked by analysts – and ceasefire and allowing humanitarian groups to increase
demanding scores of imprisoned Boko Haram fighters be aid to communities blighted by years of fighting.
released in exchange for the girls’ freedom.
CENTRAL AFRICA SOUTHERN AFRICA
BURUNDI | The government remains defiant MOZAMBIQUE | Fresh attempts at
as international bodies are ratcheting up pressure on reconciliation between civil-war era foes followed their
President Pierre Nkurunziza to work toward a solution to typical pattern of one step forward, one step backward.
the country’s political quagmire. Burundi’s government Internationally-mediated peace talks between the
deemed invasive a resolution by the UN Security Council ruling Frelimo party and the armed opposition, Renamo,
on 29 July authorising a 228-strong police force to be resumed on 8 August amid reports that Renamo militants
deployed to the country; while four Burundian lawyers had that same day razed a health centre and government
that fed the UN evidence of torture, executions and buildings in a village in the northern Niassa province.
forced disappearances by security forces have been
threatened with disbarment. BOTSWANA | Frustrated youths – who comprise 70%
of Botswana’s jobless – are beginning to demand action
August 2016 Edition
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (CAR) | On 26 over the bleak future they envision for themselves in the
July, the UN extended the mandate of its effective country’s commodity- and tourism-dominated economy.
– if controversial – peacekeeping force in the CAR A small protest held by unemployed graduates in front
(MINUSCA) until November 2017. Without discounting of parliament buildings in Gaborone on 8 August was
the raft of sex abuse allegations levied against troops violently broken up by police.
attached to the mission, since being deployed in
September 2014 MINUSCA has been vital in preventing
the CAR from being sundered by civil war and sectarian
bloodshed.
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 3
AFRICA WIDE CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW Table of
Contents
Influence of regional and international
bodies reasserts itself
In July, wayward African nations were under pressure from continental and international bodies
to reform deviant ways and curb aggression or face the consequences; including sanctions
and the imposition of peacekeepers. At this time of economic uncertainty and international
terrorism, international cooperation is a foundation for a required multinational response.
Only power-hungry despots remained oblivious to – or defiant of – global interconnectivity.
The African Union (AU) was showing more resolve to AU intervention in Burundi was again mooted, and AU
move beyond a society of African leaders prioritising peacekeepers may be the solution to South Sudan’s
one another’s privileges and survival by laying the toxic, violence-producing political environment. The
foundation for the type of secure and prosperous UN and the West also challenged African despots, as
continent that the AU was founded to achieve. Africa’s authoritarian allies abroad, China and Russia,
August 2016 Edition
Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir. In July 2016, the International Criminal Court (ICC) referred the governments of both
Djibouti and Rwanda to the UN for hosting Bashir and flouting an ICC warrant for his arrest. The Sudanese dictator has been
indicted by the ICC for war crimes committed since 2009.
Photo courtesy Al Jazeera English/Flickr
4 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd
Table of
Contents CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW
were forced into less engagement in the continent by
those countries’ economic reversals. China was also
AFRICA WIDE
exposed for several nefarious business and military
dealings with African countries.
North Africa: Balancing security with freedoms
No longer content with his country’s diplomatic
isolation from many former allies, King Mohammed
VI of Morocco on 18 July requested to re-join the
AU from which, 32 years earlier, in 1984, Morocco
departed in protest of the body’s admission of
Western Sahara as a sovereign country. Morocco
has long declared the territory as its own. The issue
remains unresolved, but Rabat found its exclusion
untenable at a time when continental solidarity is
useful for trade and security benefits.
Tunisia acted on international intelligence that 5,000
Tunisians have been recruited by the Islamic State
(ISIS) and curtailed cross-border travel for many
citizens, and surveyed some who had returned from
overseas (see ‘Tunisia’s spirit of rebellion has a dark side
that spawns terrorists’, page 29). In Egypt, continuing
government violations of civil liberties in the name of
thwarting terrorism grew extreme. In July, all Muslim
clerics were told to read at weekly services a sermon
written by a writer on the state payroll. Arrest
awaited clerics who departed from the prepared text
or who used their own sermons. Perhaps to distract
from the growing controversies that his increasingly-
repressive policies have engendered domestically,
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on 21 July suggested
that his country initiate an intervention to “break the
deadlock” in the Middle East peace process.
Perhaps to distract from the
growing controversies that his
increasingly-repressive policies have
engendered domestically, President
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on 21 July
suggested that his country initiate an
intervention to “break the deadlock”
in the Middle East peace process.
ISIS fighters disguise faces as they pose for photograph.
August 2016 Edition
Mounting intelligence reports of Tunisians having returned
home after fighting for ISIS in the Middle East has Tunisian
authorities scrambling to understand the country’s outsized
problem with radicalisation.
Photo from Dabiq, ISIS’ English magazine
All images used by ACM are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike/NoDerivs agreements – http://bit.ly/K9eh9h & http://bit.ly/RaejCi.
Images are not endorsed by their source nor modified and all graphics are original ACM creations using data from the source credited, unless stated otherwise.
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 5
CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW Table of
Contents
East Africa: Cynicism sparks
South Sudan violence
AFRICA WIDE
In South Sudan, neither leader
of the two main rival factions
competing for power, President
Salva Kiir or Vice-President Riek
Machar, seemed sincere about
the observation of an August
2015 peace accord. Some 300
people have been killed in
clashes between government
and Machar’s rebel group. On 26
July, after Machar had already
left the capital, Kiir moved to
replace Machar with military
General Taban Deng. While South
Sudanese are fleeing the renewed
violence – 3,000 refugees arrived A Cameroonian soldier at the opening of US-sponsored military exercises in Douala.
in Uganda during the weekend of Concerted operations against Boko Haram by militaries in the Lake Chad Basin
22-23 July – the country is also have shown some progress against the jihadists in 2016.
Photo courtesy US Army/Wikimedia Commons
home to 264,000 refugees from
the Democratic Republic of Congo
(DRC), Sudan and other countries, @hallaboutafrica West Africa: Islamic insurgency
whose lives are endangered by intensifies in Mali, stagnates in
South Sudan rebels’ rejection
the factional fighting. As the AU of AU troop deployment may
Nigeria
summit commenced in Rwanda be a ploy to ensure no foreign troops
in July with South Sudan leading if they break pledge to support Kiir’s On 21 July, Mali began a three-day
the discussion agenda, Machar government mourning period to commemorate
proposed that the only way the lives of 17 soldiers gunned
that the bloodshed would cease In contrast, long festering down when two Islamic terrorists
would be a “third force” asserting animosities were salved in East attacked a military base. Some 35
order on the country. The AU Africa when Israel’s Prime Minister soldiers were wounded in the 19
might provide such a force, or a Benjamin Netanyahu conducted a July raid, which prompted a se-
multilateral agreement might be four-nation visit to rewrite African- curity review. The large country’s
put into place, assuming there Israeli relations (see ‘Netanyahu’s wide and sparsely-inhabited spac-
is international will to impose a diplomatic mission turns the tide on es make counter-insurgency meas-
peace that can only be temporary. Africa’s relationship with Israel’, page ures difficult, and the security sit-
Like Somalia’s pirates awaiting 36). The trip ended with Ethiopia uation has deteriorated markedly
the departure of the international and Kenya calling for Israel to be since 2015 (see ‘Additional peace-
naval force patrolling the country’s granted observer status in the AU, keepers in Mali a good start to fixing
coast so that the interrupted countering the historic blockage the troubled mission’, page 43).
business of commandeering ships of Israel’s AU observer status by
and kidnapping crewpersons Algeria representing North African By contrast, the army and gov-
can resume, South Sudan’s rival Arab interests, and by South ernment of Nigeria insisted that
powers will continue to fight Africa, which has taken upon itself its counter-insurgency is making
until a truly home-grown power the role of Africa’s champion of the headway against the local jihadist
August 2016 Edition
compromise is created. No will cause of Palestinian statehood. group, Boko Haram. These asser-
for compromise is evident; and in The two other countries visited by tions are often ridiculed by polit-
July, European countries as well as Netanyahu, Rwanda and Uganda, ical observers who note that the
Ethiopia and some African nations will also likely back Israel at the terrorists seem to be able to strike
withdrew their nationals from AU. Beyond that accomplishment, at will. However, Boko Haram’s
South Sudan. Continuing armed genuine thawing of the diplomatic theatre of operations has steadi-
conflict is certain for South Sudan ice between Africa and Israel was ly dwindled in size since President
for the immediate future. accomplished. Muhammadu Buhari assumed
6 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd
Table of
Contents CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW
office in 2015 and Cameroon Kabila of the DRC will use failures the DRC by supporting the rebel
stepped up its own operations in the constitution to address cer- movement there. Against a July
AFRICA WIDE
against the group. On 21 July, tain election issues to also remain report accusing the Kagame gov-
Nigerian military personnel freed in office. Kabila may not be able ernment of human rights abus-
80 schoolgirls from their Boko to run for a third term, but he can es, state spokespersons mount-
Haram captives in Borno State, postpone elections until 2017 ed a defence that attacked the
giving hope to parents of many (see ‘The Democratic of Republic of Washington-based originator of
hundreds more kidnapped girls Congo is the latest African country the report, Human Rights Watch,
that their abduction need not be whose fate is tied to a leader’s ambi- for “irresponsible activism.” Such
permanent. tions’, page 50). deflections are the final refuge of
guilty human rights abuses, much
Central Africa: National leaders The naiveté of some like champions of Sudan’s indict-
take advantage of their power Central African ed war criminal President Omar
constitutions, which al-Bashir, who defend him by at-
The naiveté of some Central assume that the tacking the International Criminal
African constitutions, which as- processes of democracy Court (ICC) that seeks justice for
sume that the processes of de- will proceed smoothly, Bashir’s victims by putting him on
mocracy will proceed smoothly, did not factor in trial. The smokescreen does not
did not factor in politicians’ am- politicians’ ambitions. change facts or culpability, how-
bitions. Consequently, President ever, and sooner or later Rwanda’s
Paul Kagame of Rwanda seems government will be held accounta-
to be envying President Pierre ble for its domestic and cross-bor-
Nkurunziza of Burundi in the lat- Rwanda was hit by another der crimes (see ‘Time for the world
ter’s successful manipulation of damning report from an interna- to hold Rwanda’s government ac-
his constitution to extend his stay tional organisation months af- countable for repressive policies at
in power. While Kagame is weigh- ter the UN again provided proof home and destabilising practices in
ing his options, President Joseph that the country is destabilising Central Africa’, page 71).
August 2016 Edition
Members of the DRC’s diaspora in Toronto, Canada, protest Joseph Kabila’s election victory in 2011, announced after
Kabila’s government repealed laws requiring a run-off vote. Kabila is seeking a loophole to retain
power ahead of the DRC’s elections slated for November 2017.
Photo courtesy catchphotography/Wikimedia Commons
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 7
CONTINENTAL OVERVIEW Table of
Contents
Southern Africa: As Mugabe’s public appearances could not help When the International Monetary
political troubles mount, his but wonder when the hulking Fund (IMF) announced in July that
AFRICA WIDE
irrelevance becomes apparent military officials who flanked him Nigeria’s economy would contract
would turn on him, perhaps mo- in 2016 to growth of -1.4%,
In Zimbabwe in July, the band tivated by economic mismanage- South Africa with its weak 0.9%
of domestic mercenaries called ment that is delaying army per- projected growth seemed closer
“war veterans” – who from the sonnel payments, and escort the to regaining the spot as Africa’s
1990s enforced President Robert former liberation leader offstage leading economy. Already in July,
Mugabe’s land theft policies with permanently. South Africa regained the number
violence – turned on their erst- two spot from Egypt. However,
while leader. Mugabe has become South Africans were not feeling
a “dictator,” said his former en- South Africans were prosperous and contented as key
forcers. Coming at a time when not feeling prosperous municipal elections set for August
Harare and Bulawayo were closed and contented as key promised to rewrite the country’s
by anti-government protests and municipal elections set political landscape, which has
the first sustained and widespread for August promised to stagnated under the scandal-
groundswell of anti-Mugabe ac- rewrite the country’s plagued ruling party, the African
tivities were writing a new page in political landscape, National Congress (ANC) (see
the country’s history, the 92-year- which has stagnated ‘Too big to fail: South Africa’s strong
old despot seemed isolated and under the scandal- economic fundamentals eclipse
frail (see ‘Zimbabwe’s domestic op- plagued ruling party. election-year conflict’, page 18).
position to Mugabe’s rule intensifies’,
page 59). Observers of Mugabe’s
WIGGET ON AFRICA FOR ACM
August 2016 Edition
8 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd
Table of
Contents FEATURED
CONTINENTAL ANALYSIS
OVERVIEW
AFRICA WIDE
North Korea’s African inroads come
to an end
A UN panel calling Namibia out on breaking international sanctions by making military
deals with Asia’s pariah state, North Korea, has wider implications. African countries can no
longer blindly do what they want and laugh at international law without consequences.
The bilateral advantages were too rights record, North Korea is sub- insane but is sufficiently ruthless
tantalising for African countries to ject to ever more strenuous sanc- to execute family members. Since
resist or for North Korea to with- tions aimed at hindering its nu- 2006, the UN Security Council
stand exploiting. Condemned in clear and military ambitions. The (UNSC) has passed five major
the international community as a country is ruled by tyrannical Kim resolutions aimed at countering
rogue nation with a horrid human Jong-un, who may or may not be North Korea’s nuclear programme.
August 2016 Edition
A nationalist dance performance during North Korea’s annual Arirang Mass Games in Pyongyang.
Photo courtesy (Stephan)/Flickr
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 9
FEATURED ANALYSIS Table of
Contents
North Korea will go to any lengths to get what it aging autocratic Yoweri Museveni who is determined
wants, in this case, nuclear weapons and interconti- to remain President-for-Life. However, a sentiment
AFRICA WIDE
nental missile delivery systems for those bombs that toward greater democracy in these countries makes
will ensure that Pyongyang gets whatever it wants in previous links with North Korea untenable. The con-
perpetuity. A foreign policy based on lies, insults, bel- tinent’s more advanced democracies like Botswana
licosity and threats has unnerved the country’s im- broke off relations with Pyongyang years ago. Even
mediate neighbours and disturbed the superpowers Museveni can be swayed by a better deal. On 29
of the People’s Republic of China and the US. May 2016, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye’s
state visit to Kampala climaxed with the achievement
Four African countries in particular, Ethiopia, the of her mission, when she announced that Uganda
Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda, have lead- had broken off all military ties with Pyongyang. South
erships that seem not to care about the prospect of Korea’s aid package proved more attractive.
a nuclear-armed North Korea, nor about the millions
of North Koreans oppressed by the Kim military re- With Namibia as the final likely holdout, Africa will,
gime. The fulsome descriptions of a “strong friend- within the year, sever remaining ties with North Korea.
ship between development partners,” that African However, damage has been done. North Korea has
heads of state and diplomats use to praise their re- been made stronger and more dangerous through
lations with Pyongyang refer to a relationship with the hard cash earned through its erstwhile African
a regime, not a silent and powerless Korean people. allies like Ethiopia. While African nations may claim
African despots in the past would feel at home with to have purged themselves of Pyongyang contacts,
Kim’s governance. However, Ethiopia, the Republic they are still accountable for UN sanctions violations
of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda are evolving toward dating from 2006. Reckoning is under consideration
representational democracies, albeit fitfully to be by the UNSC.
sure, and, in the case of Uganda, dragging along the
North Korea has been made
stronger and more dangerous
through the hard cash earned
through its erstwhile African allies.
North Korea and African leaders share a disdain
for UN sanctions
While South Korea’s President Park was in Uganda,
a top official of the North Korean regime, Kim Yong-
nam, was visiting nine Sub-Saharan nations with
assurances that military and trade treaties would be
fulfilled despite the pressure of mounting sanctions
on his country. Kim’s dictatorship has forged close
ties with the ipso facto dictatorship of President-for-
Life José Eduardo Dos Santo’s Angola and Teodoro
Obiang’s Equatorial Guinea, as well as the incipient
dictatorships of Pierre Nkurunziza’s Burundi and
Joseph Kabila’s Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Secret dealings intended to avoid UN inspection allow
for commodities and hard currency, as well as desired
August 2016 Edition
mineral commodities, to enrich North Korea. The
four countries’ strongmen have long scoffed at the
danger of international sanctions. Dos Santos bought
a small fleet of naval patrol boats from North Korea
in 2011, five years after UN sanctions specifically
forbade member states from giving or receiving
A mural of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un at an art exhibit “assistance relating to the provision, manufacture or
outside of Lyon, France. maintenance of arms and related material.”
Photo courtesy Thierry Ehrmann/Flickr
10 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) LtdTable of
Contents FEATURED ANALYSIS
AFRICA WIDE
North Korea has a history of selling weapons to autocratic regimes. Above: A North-Korean-built artillery gun deployed
by Iran during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). Below: Mobile missile launchers on display during annual celebrations marking
the end of the Korean War.
August 2016 Edition
Photos courtesy Uri Tours/Flickr; Albert F. Hunt/US Marines Corps/Wikimedia Commons
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 11FEATURED ANALYSIS Table of
Contents
For years Africa’s despots have shown undisguised
contempt for the UN’s ethical and human rights A reason emboldening any African
AFRICA WIDE
policies. Meanwhile, these rulers have demanded as leader to defy international sanctions
their due humanitarian assistance that spares their and wring from North Korea any
treasuries from having to spend money to keep benefits it can is the practice of
populations educated, fed and healthy but frees the African Union (AU) of picking
their own funds to finance security arms to oppress and choosing which international
political oppositions. Pyongyang has capitalised accords it wishes to follow.
on this cynicism, and is doing well by appealing
to leaderships’ anti-democratic sentiments. UN
investigators revealed in May 2016 that Kabila had Namibia’s reasons for retaining ties with North
purchased a consignment of pistols from North Korea are more sentimental
Korea in 2014 and hired North Korean instructors
to train and in fact augment DRC police and Kabila’s While it is hard to find affection for North Korea’s
own presidential guard. As he prepares to hold onto murderous regime, Namibia has managed to
power by manipulating another term of office despite decompartmentalise its views on the Kim regime
a constitutional term limit that states his time is up, by honouring the African practice of having long
Kabila is using Pyongyang military aid to prepare for memories for friends of the past. During the War
any uprising that may occur when he makes his power of Independence against the white descendants of
grab. To such a leader, UN sanctions are toothless German colonialists in the 1980s in the then South
talk, while North Korea offers material support. West Africa, the liberation army, the South West Africa
Nkurunziza feels the same attraction to Pyongyang, People’s Organisation (SWAPO), enjoyed the material
only with more impetus. The West is just awakening support of Pyongyang. North Korea subsequently
to Kabila’s ambitions, which are reversing the DRC’s leveraged a payback that included giving discounted
progress toward democracy that earned the West’s
praise in 2011, but has been wary of Nkurunziza’s
actions since he precipitated an incipient civil war in
2014 by unconstitutionally extending his own stay
in power.
A reason emboldening any African leader to defy
international sanctions and wring from North Korea
any benefits it can is the practice of the African Union
(AU) of picking and choosing which international
accords it wishes to follow. The setting aside of
countries’ obligations to the International Criminal
Court (ICC) in the Hague is the most ubiquitous
example of abandoning obligations and ethics
for political expedience. In July, the ICC referred
Djibouti and Uganda to the UNSC for discipline
following the refusal of both countries to surrender
Sudan’s dictator and indicted war criminal, Omar
al-Bashir. Bashir’s victims are never mentioned by
his defenders, most notably Museveni of Uganda
and South Africa’s increasingly autocratic President
Jacob Zuma. However, by thwarting the ICC, African
governments hope to divert any possibility that they
August 2016 Edition
will be held accountable for their own human rights
abuses. For countries that wish to retain lucrative
relations with Pyongyang, the defiance of the ICC
offers a welcome template. Former president of Namibia, Hifikepunye Pohamba, on
a SWAPO campaign billboard in 2004. Payback for North
Korea’s support for SWAPO during Namibia’s liberation
struggle has been Namibian government tenders and
Namibia’s neutrality on North Korean censures at the UN.
Photo courtesy Bries/Wikimedia Commons
12 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) LtdTable of
Contents FEATURED ANALYSIS
deals on construction work by has close links with North Korea’s and as such, worthy of solidarity
North Korean firms and North principal military construction firm, with African countries. Namibia is
AFRICA WIDE
Korean armaments to Windhoek the euphemistically named Korea also showing wilful ignorance of
in exchange for neutral treatment Mining Development Trading Pyongyang’s well-publicised and
at the UN. Namibia has regularly Corporation (KOMID). Windhoek therefore impossible-to-ignore
abstained from votes condemning surely knew of these ties, and crimes against humanity.
North Korea’s human rights consequently, that dealings with
records. Mansudae is a violation of UN
prohibitions of any dealings of a The alliance between
In June, Namibia’s Deputy military nature with Pyongyang. some African countries
Prime Minister Nandi-Ndaitwah This relationship between Namibia and North Korea
Netumbo visited Pyongyang and KOMID via Mansudae may was forged from
on a mission believed to have prompt the UN special panel that the selfishness and
been undertaken to prepare scrutinises North Korea’s business cynicism that bedevils
North Korea for a lessening of dealings with the rest of the world many African nations’
relations. If so, Netumbo was set to refer Namibia to the UNSC. foreign policies.
straight by his hosts, and upon his
return announced the opposite Pattern of violating international
of a cessation of ties. Rather, he law Kim Jong-un runs his country the
assured, “While Namibia remains way ISIS would run any nation
committed to the implementation The alliance between some it might control, as an absolute
of all UN sanctions resolutions, African countries and North Korea dictatorship maintained by a
the warm diplomatic relations was forged from the selfishness reign of terror where the people
with the DPRK (the Democratic and cynicism that bedevils many are broken and starved so that
People’s Republic of Korea) will be African nations’ foreign policies. leadership may exult in its own
maintained.” What does Uganda’s autocratic power. African governments that
President Museveni care if forge toxic relations with this
However, Namibia faces a North Korean weapons cause regime will remain tainted until
dilemma. A UN panel of experts destruction in Japan or his trade they are held accountable for their
has raised flags regarding the with Pyongyang facilitates an dealings. Meanwhile, overtures
work of North Korean military invasion of South Korea, as long as from South Korea to sway African
contractors in the country. The his own regime materially benefits? nations to shift diplomatic ties
North Korean construction This unattractive solipsism was on are set to continue, offering
firm Mansudae is best known display in Ethiopia, Namibia and inducements for change that
for erecting such Windhoek Rwanda long after it was revealed African governments are likely to
landmarks as the Independence that North Korea is not just another accept.
Museum and the new State struggling Third World country
House. However, the company oppressed by Western powers
INVESTOR INSIGHTS:
By flaunting UN sanctions against North Korea, African regimes are engaging in what any economist would clearly
regard as rational behaviour in line with the incentives laid out for these governments. These regimes certainly deserve
scorn for their wilful hypocrisy to cash the cheques for international assistance while disregarding the rules of those
same cheque-writing institutions. But until these sanctions become meaningfully enforced through the withdrawal of
membership privileges and/or material aid from the UN or other multilateral bodies, no rational incentive-maximising
August 2016 Edition
government should be expected to curtail their engagement with North Korea. In the experience of international
sanctions against Iran, global enforcement was ultimately left to the US and, to a lesser extent, to the European
Union (EU) to punish companies, individuals and governments for their violations of those sanctions. So far, the US
government has seemingly not prioritised the extraterritorial application of its North Korean sanctions programme
in the same way as it did for Iran, but with a change in the US administration imminent, chances increase that some
African regimes may find themselves on the wrong end of investigations and sanctions from the US Treasury. – A.C.
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 13inonafrica.com
Leading Africa’s conflict analysis
ACM Founding Editor, James Hall
Some ACM subscribers include:
ACM is produced by In On Africa PHONE
Phone: + (27) 81 011 1011
ONLINE
Email: jonathan@inonafrica.com
Web: www.inonafrica.com
ADDRESS
30 Judith Road
Emmarentia, 2195, Johannesburg, South AfricaTable of
Contents FEATURED ANALYSIS
ANGOLA
ACM ANALYSIS IN BRIEF | North Korea’s African inroads come to an end 5 August
AFRICA WIDE
Some large African countries have tried to retain lucrative ties with North Officials meet delegation from
Korea with secret dealings and open dismissals of their obligations as UN North Korea pushing to renew
member states. The days of deception are apparently over, with the UNSC bilateral cooperation. The delega-
about to take action against violators of sanctions against Pyongyang and tion included North Korea’s depu-
South Korea dangling its own inducements.
ty foreign minister, Sin Hong-chol,
Key points: who asserted North Korea’s un-
assailable right to simultaneously
• Djibouti and Uganda have been referred to the UNSC for disciplinary pursue nuclear technology and
action for violating military sanctions against North Korea, and Namibia economic development. The meet-
may be next ing came just days after Angola
• Burundi and the DRC are known to have secret dealings with North
submitted a proposal to the UN
Korea as those country’s power-hungry leaders look to Pyongyang for
Security Council (UNSC) specify-
assistance that the West is withholding
• South Korea is on a diplomatic offensive offering North Korea’s African ing how Angola would implement
allies an attractive alternative to an alliance with Pyongyang the UNSC’s sanctions imposed
against North Korea in March as
a consequence of North Korea’s
RELEVANT READING ... fourth nuclear rocket test launch
in January 2016. Angola’s action
plan mentions bans on exports of
‘Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution
1874 (2009)’ fuel and mineral products to North
The panel’s latest report to the UNSC details North Korea’s Korea, as well as more vigorous in-
continued evasion of sanctions, including trade in arms and related spections and monitoring of cargo
materiel and the provision of training for police and paramilitary planes and vessels transiting to and
units on the African continent - http://bty.link/40v from Pyongyang. The action plan is
the first Angola has submitted, de-
‘The two Koreas and Africa in the 21st century’
The Centre for Chinese Studies commentary examines how North spite three previous rounds of UN
and South Korea have made inroads in Africa, while simultaneously sanctions being slapped on North
fending each other off - http://bty.link/40u Korea in 2006, 2009 and 2013.
However, the 5 August meeting is
the second meeting between the
countries’ officials in four months.
A visit by North Korean officials to
Luanda at the end of March 2016
focused on what Angolan state
media described as “sharing expe-
riences” in public order and securi-
ty. Although trade and cooperation
between the nations has ebbed
over the past decade as a result of
beefed-up UN sanctions, Angolan
state media regularly describes a
healthy relationship between the
two, invoking rosy descriptions of
North Korea’s support for Angola
August 2016 Edition
post-independence. Angola’s sub-
mission of an action plan to the
UNSC is encouraging, but the noto-
riously corrupt and repressive gov-
ernment of President José Eduardo
dos Santos is likely to disregard the
sanctions if North Korea can offer
enough incentive to do so.
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 15FEATURED ANALYSIS Table of
Contents
NORTH KOREA AND
AFRICA WIDE
An investigative report from a UN Panel of
Experts released in July 2016 documented
how North Korea has been effective in evading
sanctions against the country. North Korea
AFRICA: A RECENT
continues to use the international financial
system, airlines and container shipping routes HISTORY OF
ILLICIT TIES
to trade in prohibited items, such as trading
arms and related material to Africa. North
Korea also continues to provide training for
police and paramilitary units in Africa in nations
with whom it has had long-standing ties.
GREEN PINE ASSOCIATED CORPORATION
– Known simply as Green Pine, the
corporation was first linked to North
Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile
programmes in 2012.
• Has customers in Africa and Asia,
including states that use Green
Pine to evade sanctions
• Procures arms and related material
from the US and Europe, routing
shipments through Asia
• Taken control of the Korea Mining
Development Trading Corporation
(KOMID), North Korea’s primary
arms dealer
• Responsible for roughly half of
North Korea’s weapons exports
• Specialises in production of maritime
vessels, weapons systems and
August 2016 Edition
providing related expertise
• Known to embed company
representatives in North Korea’s
foreign embassies and consulates
16 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) LtdTable of
Contents FEATURED ANALYSIS
REPORTS BY UN MEMBER STATES OF SANCTION VIOLATIONS
INVOLVING NORTH KOREA AND AFRICAN NATIONS
AFRICA WIDE
ERITREA | MAY 2012
UN Panel of Experts reopens
EGYPT | FEBRUARY 2013 investigation into arms deals between
Anonymous UN member state Eritrea and North Korea based on a report
reports shipment of Scud missile spare from the UN’s Monitoring Group on Somalia and
parts from Beijing to Cairo arranged between Eritrea discovering evidence of Green Pine
North Korean company Ryongsong Trading Co providing “military and technical support”
Ltd and MODA Authority International Optronic, to Eritrea’s Department of Governmental
an Arab optical and electronics systems Garages.
company. Shipment listed purpose of use
as for commercial fishing storage
and processing.
SIERRA LEONE | JULY 2012
Shipping vessel South Hill 2
belonging to North Korea’s Ocean ETHIOPIA |
Maritime Management Company 1980S TO LATE 2007
(OMM) first record in service under UN investigates ties between
Sierra Leone registry. Ethiopia-based Homicho Ammunition
Engineering Corporation and North Korea’s
Mining Development Trading Corporation.
Ethiopia admits North Korean assistance in the
ANGOLA | JULY 2011 development of Homicho. Addis Ababa home to
Shipments of equipment branch of Korea Pugang Trading Corporation
relating to Mandume-class – a subsidiary of Korea Ryonbong General
military patrol boats from Vienna Corporation, a designated company
to Luanda arranged by a Green for military procurement and
Pine representative serving as a sales.
diplomat at the North Korean
embassy in Luanda.
UGANDA |
DECEMBER 2015
Ugandan officials confirm that
45 North Korean nationals involved
NAMIBIA | 2005 Government informs in providing security training to police
UN Panel that it maintained weapons and and paramilitary forces. Media reports
arms contracts with North Korea up until 2005, from Uganda report that 400 police
including involving North Korea in the construction of officers trained by North Korean
the Windhoek munitions factory from 2002 to 2005. instructors since April 2015.
NAMIBIA | SEPTEMBER 2014
August 2016 Edition
Satellite imagery shows construction of military base
at Leopard Valley still ongoing after the Pyongyang-
based Mansudae Overseas Projects construction
company first advertised the project in 2010.
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 17AFRICA WIDE MONITORING ECONOMIES Table of
Contents
Too big to fail: South Africa’s strong
economic fundamentals eclipse
election-year conflict
South Africa’s democracy that serves as a template for Africa’s emerging democracies faces political
setbacks that are causing consternation within the local business community. However, foreign
investors looking at the long term and bigger picture feel that the country’s overriding qualities
justify cautious optimism.
South Africa’s municipal elections governance enjoyed since the Freedom Fighters (EFF). Given the
of August 2016 have been the New South Africa emerged in ’94 ANC’s widespread popular sup-
most transforming polling since has been challenged as never be- port, the 2016 local elections were
the country became democratic in fore by the main opposition par- theirs to lose, and the losses that
1994. The ruling African National ty, the Democratic Alliance (DA), were indeed incurred in munici-
Congress’ (ANC) hammerlock on and the upstart radical Economic pal governments were the result
August 2016 Edition
South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma at celebrations for the South African Social Security Agency (SASSA),
19 July 2016. South Africa’s economy remains promising in spite of Zuma’s scandal-prone tenure that has prompted a
weakening of the national currency, the rand.
Photo courtesy GovernmentZA/Flickr
18 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) LtdTable of
Contents
MONITORING ECONOMIES
of the self-inflicted wounds of a most of 2015 to ZAR 19 in March bullet in December 2016 when
liberation movement that had lost 2016 before eventually settling at Moody’s and other rating agencies
AFRICA WIDE
its way. While ostensibly champi- ZAR 14 in August 2016. again consider the country’s econ-
oning the poor, increasingly during omy, and perhaps also find it im-
Zuma’s reign, the ANC showed a @hallaboutafrica pervious to the political hijinks and
primary interest in its own internal Tourism into Southern Africa greedy ways of Zuma’s ANC.
agenda rather than a legislative up big 19% because weak
and executive programme focused SA rand against dollar, Euro makes The South African economy’s
holidays cheap in rand currencies
on national needs. This might be countries
positives outweigh the
expected given the limitations of country’s political negatives
the political manipulator who runs
the party, President Jacob Zuma. South Africa is, of course, the ex-
While Zuma’s operatives managed The move signalled perimental Petri dish that Africa
to divert the prosecution of their to the business is studying intently. Can a racial
chief for corruption, the price was community that minority government that built a
high. Government has spent ZAR Africa’s most developed thriving economy out of oppres-
1 billion (US$ 68.5 million) on legal economy is being run sion be replaced with a majority
fees to defend Zuma from a med- by government as government that can resist the
ley of charges. a personal fiefdom temptations of entitlement and au-
of an ANC cabal. thoritarianism (as often displayed
Added to this is a bevy of scan- by Zuma) and keep the economy
dals that surround the successor afloat? The consequences of fail-
to the idealistic throne of South And yet, the financial servic- ure most certainly include con-
Africa’s human rights-oriented es and investment firm Capital flict situations. These are likely to
government established by Nelson International took a long distance manifest as strikes by civil servants
Mandela. During the elections, look at South Africa from its base and private sector employees, in-
Zuma evoked Mandela to sway on the Isle of Man. The firm con- creasing service delivery protests
voters not to abandon the ANC. cluded that South Africa pessimists the likes of which frequently turn
However, the modestly-living have got it wrong when they write violent, riots in townships directed
Mandela would never countenance off the country as reverting to the toward foreigners and the prolifer-
hugely expensive state spending same type of liberation party dic- ation of ethnic and tribal organisa-
on a government official’s private tatorship that has squandered the tions promoting the fragmentation
residence and the usurpation of riches of Angola, Mozambique, of a country that in many ways is
executive power by Zuma’s bil- Zimbabwe and other Southern the ‘United States of Africa’, com-
lionaire pals from India, the Gupta African states. South Africa’s eco- prised of dozens of ethnicities and
family. The Guptas accomplished a nomic fundamentals are not only eleven official languages.
virtual coup d’état, choosing cab- steady, they are strong, Capital
inet ministers – who would boost International stated in July. Only The negatives considered by such
their business ventures – who the prospect of continuing drought investment advisors as Capital
would then be approved by Zuma. that has impacted the key agricul- Investment and the market ana-
When the incumbent finance min- tural sector and triggered food in- lysts of the publisher of the ACM,
ister refused to bail out South flation can upset the economy in In On Africa (IOA), amongst oth-
Africa’s money-haemorrhaging a basic way, and weather forecast- ers, are daunting:
state airline run by Zuma’s cronies, ers predict that the devastating El
Zuma fired him and found as a re- Niño weather phenomenon that • Declining gross domestic prod-
placement an unknown sycophant. brought a rain-diminished 2015- uct (GDP) largely due to less
The move signalled to the business 2016 has passed. exportation to China, South
August 2016 Edition
community that Africa’s most de- Africa’s partner in the trade
veloped economy (yes, Nigeria’s A look at these economic fun- block BRICS (Brazil, Russian,
economy is larger but it is all crude damentals explains why South India, China and South Africa)
oil exports) is being run by govern- Africa’s government-issued bonds • Declining production in many
ment as a personal fiefdom of an were not downgraded to junk – if not all – industries
ANC cabal. The value of the rand status in June. Furthermore, • Rising interest rates inhibiting
plummeted, going from ZAR 10 these fundamentals may allow business growth
to a US dollar on average through government to dodge the junk bond • The impact of severe drought
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 19AFRICA WIDE MONITORING ECONOMIES Table of
Contents
Johannesburg city centre. Johannesburg’s robust banking and finance centres are the envy of the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Photo courtesy Andrew Moore/Flickr
Political uncertainly is not listed from cloaked in the darkness that • First world infrastructure
because due to the subjective South African pessimists believe • First world banking and
nature thereof, it is less easily has shrouded the country like an financial institutions
quantifiable than the four points eclipse in recent years. • Good track record in fiscal
above. Surveys sampling members management and financial
of the South African business discipline
community usually reflect South Africa’s picture • No default events (on bonds
pessimistic results because of is still definitely or loans) since 1983
political considerations. Bearing shaded by challenges • SA remains the gateway to
witness to government scandal and and crises but is far Southern African countries
being subjected to government from cloaked in the • Comparative stability in the
mismanagement on the ground on darkness that South supply of electricity
a regular basis, business people’s African pessimists
grumbling is reflected in their believe has shrouded These factors, and not the failures
downbeat survey responses. the country like an of the ANC government, are
eclipse in recent years. considered by rating agencies and
Away from the trauma of traffic are the reason that South Africa
jams brought on by street protests has not seen its government
August 2016 Edition
and the spectacle of Zuma’s bonds downgraded in 2016.
rapacious doings that fill countless Economists call them “convincing The value of a reliable electricity
newspaper columns and TV and positive factors,” and for South supply cannot be underestimated
radio programmes, South Africa’s Africa there are six that are of by an investor desirous of opening
picture is still definitely shaded essential interest to foreign a factory in Africa. South Africa’s
by challenges and crises but is far investors: infrastructure is ‘first world’, and
20 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) LtdTable of
Contents
MONITORING ECONOMIES
offers quick access to dozens True, Zuma replaced Finance
of nearby secondary markets. Minister Nhlanhla Nene with a The South African
AFRICA WIDE
Banks dominate the South African political hack when Nene refused Reserve Bank and
economy, but with their power to compromise government’s successive Ministers of
they have developed sophisticated finances. However, the ensuing Finance have displayed
financial institutions essential to uproar from the public, media and admirable financial
businesses. business sector was so deafening responsibility, which
to even the tone-deaf Zuma and is why the country
Self-correction has saved ANC that a competent former has never defaulted
South Africa’s economy from finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, on a bond or loan.
political manipulation and ruin was soon reinstated in the post.
The ANC fought to keep state
A particular item on the list of spending free-flowing to upgrade In July 2016, the International
South Africa’s convincing positive Zuma’s farm and anything else that Monetary Fund (IMF) amended
factors may seem laughable to might enrich him, going so far as downward its 2016 growth
South Africans who bemoan to abrogate the constitution. The forecast for South Africa from
government spending on Zuma’s Constitutional Court ruled against 0.6% projected in May to a barely
farm and legal bills: “good track the ANC government, providing perceptible 0.1%. The forecast
record in fiscal management the type of check on executive was touted by economists
and financial discipline.” And and legislative excess required as more credible than the
yet, the South African Reserve for the smooth functioning of any government treasury’s forecast
Bank and successive Ministers of democracy. The Court’s actions of 0.9% growth. One reason
Finance have displayed admirable were hailed as having saved South was that the United Kingdom’s
financial responsibility, which Africa’s democracy as well as its (UK) vote to exit the European
is why the country has never economy by proving that in South Union (EU) could have a negative
defaulted on a bond or loan. Africa, the law is paramount. impact on South African trade.
August 2016 Edition
A group of minstrels dance through Cape Town’s historic Bo-Kaap district for Carnival celebrations. Attractive tourist
destinations and diverse, vibrant cultures are South African assets that will outlast any momentary leadership crisis.
Photo courtesy South African Tourism/Flickr
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 21AFRICA WIDE MONITORING ECONOMIES Table of
Contents
2016
LARGEST SECTORS BY GDP
AFRICA COUNTRY BENCHMARK REPORT
20.3% 16.8% 14.8% 13.2% 5.9%
FINANCE & PUBLIC WHOLESALE MANUFACTURING OTHER
REAL ESTATE ADMIN & RETAIL SERVICES
GDP GROWTH RATE
5%
4%
3% 3.2%
2% 2.2% 2.2%
1% 1.5% 1.3%
South
0%
Africa’s 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
national POPULATION AGE BREAKDOWN
performance
ranked 7th
35.6%
among 11.6%
15.8%
54 African 35%
nations in
IOA’s Africa
Country 0-17 18-24 25-49 50+
Benchmark
KEY OPPORTUNITIES KEY CONCERNS
Report
• Coal, gold, other minerals, oil • Electricity outages plague
and a wealth of other natural businesses
August 2016 Edition
resources • Significant economic inequity
• Beautiful country with varied leading to social unrest
environments has well- • Affirmative action programmes
developed tourism sector limiting immigration of skilled
• Constantly improving new workers
You can access the full report, infrastructure and advanced
for free, here: http://www.
inonafrica.com/download/2995
technological society
22 Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) LtdTable of
Contents
MONITORING ECONOMIES
However, projections have to be borne out by performance. SOUTH AFRICA
Consequences of unpredictable events always appear. For example, 11 August
AFRICA WIDE
the Citrus Growers Association (CGA), which provides the UK with
36% of its grapefruit and 27% of its oranges annually, predicts an International currency traders
upswing in exports because the UK will be free of onerous EU fruit celebrate South Africa’s municipal
inspection standards that the CGA says unreasonably blocks imports. election results. International
investors’ delight with the results
Self-correction of political and social crises is likely to save the young of South Africa’s local elections on
democracy’s massive economy. The positive fundamentals are not 3 August has become evident, with
going to disappear soon. For these reasons, investors remain bullish the rand rising in value from 15/14
on the country, and Africa’s other emerging democracies will con- to the US dollar prior to the polls to
tinue to look to South Africa as both a political and economic role 13.34 a week later, and indications
model. that the currency’s value could rise
even further. The election polling,
which was considered free and well-
conducted – a testimony to the
ACM ANALYSIS IN BRIEF | South Africa’s strong economic
strength of the country’s 22-year-
fundamentals eclipse election-year conflict
old democratic institutions – was
While South Africa’s business community is downbeat regarding the widely hailed as the most important
country’s economic viability, rating agencies and foreign financial non-presidential election since
analysts, while cautious about South Africa’s political challenges, are democracy was installed in 1994.
much more positive. The reason for this optimism is the advanced The African National Congress (ANC)
economy’s fundamentals like sound financial institutions, a fiscally-
lost to the opposition Democratic
responsible treasury and good infrastructure.
Alliance (DA) and other opposition
Key points: groups control of such key cities as
the hotly contested Nelson Mandela
• South Africa’s massive market of 54 million people is the gateway Bay that includes the country’s
to secondary markets of regional nations and is an ideal location for automobile-manufacturing hub and
export-driven investment
the large seaport of Port Elizabeth,
• South Africa’s courts, media and public opinion have provided the
democracy’s self-correcting mechanisms against corruption and
and the capital, Pretoria. The ANC
mismanagement in governance is also being placed in the unfamiliar
• Africa’s emerging democracies seek to emulate not just South position of having to form a coalition
Africa’s superior infrastructure but its democratic institutions that government in Johannesburg, the
have functioned to keep positive economic fundamentals in place country’s economic and financial
centre. Prior to the elections, local
and international fear was that South
RELEVANT READING ... Africa’s fabled liberation party would
follow the model of other liberation
‘South Africa latest outlook shows urgent need for policy reforms’ parties throughout Africa, growing
The IMF suggests the need to address infrastructure bottlenecks fat at the expense of the general
and prioritising reforms that will boost growth and create jobs population and national economy.
- http://bit.ly/2adg3I9 While the ANC did retain control of
‘Twenty years of South African democracy’ many key municipalities, the party’s
Freedom House presents the findings of its extensive focus group political hegemony appears to have
study exploring citizens’ views of human rights, governance been broken, as South Africa’s
and the political system in South Africa - http://bty.link/41k electorate asserted an unprecedented
will for political diversity to meet the
August 2016 Edition
country’s mounting economic and
social challenges. The link between
global faith in South Africa’s economy
and the bungling, corruption and
ineffectiveness that has hobbled
South Africa’s governing ANC party
has been on vivid display following
the municipal elections.
Africa Conflict Monitor | In On Africa (Pty) Ltd 23You can also read
