Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention
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REPORT
Comprehensive Study on the
Economic and Social Benefits
of Fire Prevention
François Delorme
Dave Waterhouse
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project originated from an exchange of ideas with Ms. Chantal Bibeau, Division Head of Prevention, Service de sécurité incendie de Laval (Laval Fire Services), on enhancing fire prevention. We thank her for being the first driving force behind this study. The Service de sécurité incendie de Laval (SSIL) (called the Laval Fire Services in this document), the service incendie de la MRC de La Matapédia (called the MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services in this document), the Quebec Ministry of Public Security and the Association des gestionnaires en sécurité incendie et civil du Quebec (AGSICQ) (called the Quebec Association of Fire and Civil Safety Manager in this document) collaborated closely in the development of the mandate and the financing of this study. We warmly thank these organizations for their trust and their vision. We must also mention the invaluable research work contributed by the following individuals: Ms. Camille Lajoie, Bachelor degree in economics and a master’s candidate in Applied Economics. She is completing a mandate at the National Research Council of Canada. Ms. Dominique St-Hilaire, fire prevention inspector, Laval Fire Services and Mr. André Verreault, fire prevention firefighter, MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services, for mining and cleaning the data from their respective fire services. Also, Ms. Myriane Desjardins and Ms. Juliane Jalbert, both fire prevention inspectors at the Laval Fire Services. We also extend our gratitude to the following individuals for their invaluable support in the current study: For the Laval Fire Services: Mr. René Daigneault, retired Director, Mr. Patrick Taillefer, Director and Ms. Véronic Maheu, Fire Prevention Chief. For the MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services: Mr. Ghislain Paradis, Director. For the Quebec Ministry of Public Security: Mr. Dany Lechasseur, Fire Safety Advisor, Analysis, Consulting and Inspection Team, Fire Safety Service. Mr. Sylvain Mireault, Director General of the Quebec Association of Fire and Civil Safety Manager and Co-Presidents Mr. Jean Melançon and Mr. Jean Bartolo. Ms. Hélène Simard, linguistic reviser and Mr. Dominic Blais, graphic designer. We would also like to highlight the essential contribution of community organizations and volunteers who provide relief to disaster victims, such as the Canadian Red Cross and Urgence sociale Laval (called Laval Social Emergency in this document). These organizations generously collaborated in the data collection for this study. We also want to mention the forecasters of the Laval Fire Services and the MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services, to whom we owe the demonstrated results in this study, thanks to their rigorous work and professionalism. In closing, our thoughts go out to our respective families. Without their unwavering support, this study could not have been completed. ISBN No: 978-2-9817536-8-7 Copyright: Association des gestionnaires en sécurité incendie et civile du Québec (AGSICQ) Publication August 2nd 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Association des gestionnaires en sécurité incendie et civile du Quebec
(AGSICQ) (Quebec Association of Fire and Civil Safety Managers) and
the Quebec Ministry of Public Security joined forces to produce a study
whose objective is to promote overall fire prevention, by demonstrating
the economic and social benefits for citizens.
For this study, two fire services volunteered as case studies; these included the Laval Fire Services and the MRC de La Matapédia
Fire Services.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 1
The study concluded that it is statistically shown that a 1% investment increase in fire prevention produces the following results:
1% investment increase in fire prevention
Part 1
Average
Economic benefits: Part 2
investment value
preservation of average Social benefits
equivalent to 1%
property value
• Number of evacuees - type 1 (- 24 h) ↑ 3,3%
• Number of evacuees - type 2 (+ 24 h) ↑ 2,9%
Laval Fire Services
$2 267 ↑ 0,5% = $130M • Number of injured civilians ↑ 0,3%
(2006-2019)
• Number of deaths ↓ 0,8%
• Number of injured firefighters ↓ 0,9%
• Number of evacuees ↑ 0,2%
MRC de
La Matapédia Fire • Number of injured firefighters ↓ 0,1%
$341 ↑ 0,3% = $37M
Services • Regional labour market ↑ 10%
(2006-2019)
• Median income for the region ↑ 3%
Note: The average values of investments devoted to prevention are respectively $226,719 for the SSIL and $34,140 for the fire department of the MRC de La Matapédia.
It has now been demonstrated that fire prevention efforts have convincing and proven economic and social benefits for the safety
of citizens.
For each fire service studied, the amounts invested in fire prevention generate demonstrated value for citizens, by preserving property
assets and having a direct impact on the economic and social variables, such as deaths, injuries, regional employment and median
income. The economic impact of prevention investments is undeniable, predictable, sustainable, and the results are spread over a long
period of time with consistency.
In conclusion, it is risky to establish a unduly simple relationship between the desire to increase prevention investments funded by cuts in
intervention capacity or vice versa. What can be perceived as a duality by elected officials or the members of the fire services themselves,
must be considered as the complementarity of a service prior to the emergency call and following this call. This complementarity does
exist and will always exist, so that each fire service benefits from risk coverage and optimal service, for the safety of the population and
corporate citizens.
2 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention
Table of contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2 Objective of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3 Scope and Limits of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
4 Introduction of the Two Sample Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
5 Literature Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
6 Part 1: Measurement of the Economic Benefits of Fire Prevention in Disaster Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
6.1 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
6.2 Data for the Laval Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
6.3 Results for the Laval Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
6.3.1 Statistical Report for the Laval Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
6.3.2 Economic Benefits for the Laval Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
6.4 MRC de La Matapédia Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
6.5 MRC de La Matapédia Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
6.5.1 MRC de La Matapédia Statistical Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
6.5.2 Economic Benefits for the MRC de La Matapédia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
7 Part 2: Measurement of the Economic and social Impact of Fire Prevention Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
7.1 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
7.2 Data for Laval Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
7.3 Results for Laval Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
7.4 Results for the MRC de La Matapédia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
7.5 MRC de La Matapédia Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
8
Exploratory Section: Additional Calculation of the Economic Benefits of Prevention and
the Operations of a Fire Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
8.1 SCILL Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
8.2 QTN: Ratio of Property Saved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
9 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
10 Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
I. Abbreviations and acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
II. Sample Fire Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
III. Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
IV. Detailed Description of the Variables Used . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
V. Description of the Methodology Used to Calculate the Economic and social Impact of Fire Prevention . . . . . . . . 61
VI. Definition of Types 1 and 2 Evacuees for Part 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
VII. Comparative Analysis of the Various Studies on the Economic Impact of Operational Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
VIII. Statistical Value of Human Life and an Evacuee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 3
INTRODUCTION
1. Introduction
For a long time, fire services of all types have been considered an
expensive essential service, a kind of compulsory insurance that
all societies can or must afford to protect the lives, property and
environment of the community. The challenge is then to understand
which strategic orientations enable the fire service to achieve its mission
in the most efficient way possible, taking into consideration the risks
to be covered in a territory.
The evolution of fire services is closely linked to the evolution Not all fire services have the same resources. Also, fire prevention
of built heritage, technological risks and the needs of society in initiatives are undertaken locally, such as the implementation of
general. As things change more quickly than the fire service can building and operating codes, frequent home prevention visits or
adapt, it can question which activities will have the greatest added fire station open houses where safety advice can be shared with
value with regards to its mission. citizens. Organizations with more resources can implement more
sophisticated prevention initiatives, such as developing disaster
In all areas of society, prevention has been shown to reduce prediction models with deep learning algorithms, which lead to
the risk of unsafe behaviour, risk of damage or failures leading more effective risk management across the entire territory served
to unfortunate events. For example, the risk of cardiovascular and renders the planning prevention actions more effective.
disease can be reduced through prevention, by educating people
as early as possible about the effects of poor lifestyle habits, such Appropriate fire prevention investments make it possible to
as poor diet and physical inactivity. Prevention campaigns to raise anticipate that when a fire occurs in a building, individuals can
awareness relating to the effects of drugs, fatigue and drinking escape, firefighters can intervene in a safe manner and the
and driving, combined with coercive measures, have been fire, to use this disaster as an example, has a more limited
considerably effective in reducing the number of road deaths in destructive power. From the design and construction of a building,
Quebec, despite the increased number of vehicles. including its management and the behaviour of its inhabitants,
fire prevention is taken into account at all levels to ensure
The Quebec Ministry of Public Security and the Quebec public safety. Fire prevention extends beyond the building’s
Association of Fire and Civil Safety Managers wanted to safety measures because it also takes into consideration human
demonstrate that the added value of fire prevention initiatives behaviour, which can be responsible for a fire. Human reaction
extends well beyond the amounts invested, because they have to a disaster is an important aspect to consider when prevention
a concrete, measurable and consistent impact over time. activities target the public, regardless of their socio-demographic
characteristics.
In the field of fire and life rescue in general, the more
interventionist North American model is achieving its goals and It should be noted that decision-making regarding the orientations
fulfilling the mission of fire services in general. However, the of fire prevention programs and regulatory updates begins with
global trend demonstrated in research work published in the a rigorous and well-documented investigation process in case
World Fire Statistics1Bulletin and already adopted by some public of disasters. This step makes it possible to build an essential
administrations (notably South Korea and Japan) is increasingly database for decision-making.
towards a model that promotes action prior to an emergency call,
that is, at the prevention stage.
1 See the literature review in Appendix III.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 5
In this study, we focus on resources and activities related This study therefore radically changes the paradigm of fire
to disaster prevention, from an overall risk mitigation prevention as a whole. The results suggest that investing in
perspective; prevention helps to limit the number of fires pre-disaster prevention creates a net positive benefit in
in residential buildings and reduce the loss of human life reducing the number of fires, deaths and injuries, and
and injuries to citizens and responders. this, despite the increase in built heritage and population
over time.
Part 1 of this study focuses on what fire prevention can preserve,
even in advance of the occurrence of disasters in buildings. Firefighters in fire stations who intervene on the front line
Part 2 measures the economic and social impact of prevention will always be required in the event of disasters and medical
activities, which can reduce the number of deaths and increase emergencies. The economic benefits of the operational activities
the number of evacuees in a residential building fire. An of fire services have repeatedly been demonstrated, calculated
exploratory section was added; it constitutes a complement and evaluated. It is undeniable that the mission of firefighters and
to the calculation of the economic benefits related to the fire the variety of means to achieve it will evolve over the years, and
services’ activities. This additional calculation is the result of the economic benefits of their interventions will remain significant
research and discussions with subject matter experts. This for the community being served.
section highlights other possible methodologies that can be used
to calculate the added value of the fire services’ prevention and
response activities.
6 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
2. Objective of the Study
The fundamental question which we want to address in this study is the
following: what are the economic and economic and social consequences
or benefits of fire prevention investments?
These consequences appear through various initiatives tailored to 2.1 Differences between Economic
the context of each fire service, and which enable individuals to and Social Benefits
evacuate a burning residential building. These initiatives reduce
the number of deaths while influencing human safety behaviour. This study focuses on a number of economic variables,
We want to demonstrate that investment in pre-disaster selected for their relevance to the issue being studied and to
prevention generate a net positive benefit which reduces the the municipalities in the sample. In the two cases studied, these
number of fires and deaths, despite an increase in built heritage variables include:
and the population of the cities studied.
• Value of the built heritage for a given territory
To reach this objective, we decided to split the current study
• Total value of building permits issued for a given territory
into two parts, using the Laval Fire Services and the MRC de
La Matapédia Fire Services as case studies; the latter constitutes • Residential building fires
a more representative sample of all fire services in the province
Regarding the economic and social variables, these are
of Quebec in terms of its size, constitution, resources and risk
defined as possible indicators of a population’s well-being. These
diversity.
variables relate to both the social and economic areas, as well
The first part of the study seeks to measure the economic value as the relationships that binds them. This study combines the
of fire prevention, for a municipality, in the reduction in disasters social elements deemed relevant for the study, in addition to an
in residential buildings only2. economic dimension. These variables include:
The second part focuses on the evaluation of the economic and • Evacuees
social consequences of investments in fire prevention able to • Injured individuals
reduce the impact on the economic and social variables identified
as being relevant, in the case of a residential building fire. • Deceased individuals
• Life expectancy
The exploratory section is intended to be a summary of the
other measurements and methodologies discovered in the course • Average income
of our research, and which make it possible to determine the • Air quality
economic and social benefits of fire prevention activities. This
• Unemployment
section presents only the outcome of research already completed,
but it does not, however, apply the methodologies to the two case • Active population
studies in question. • Employment
2 When granting the initial mandate, two options were considered for the first part; the first part was to measure the economic value of fire prevention for a
municipality in the overall reduction of disasters. The second part was to measure the economic value of reducing the rate of work accidents and firefighters’
fatalities, by fire prevention in the reduction of disasters. Although work accidents and firefighters’ casualties represent a significant cost to fire services, the local
databases specific to the two fire services in our sample were found to be insufficient. This deficiency forced us to set aside this part of this study, although it
seemed promising, in terms of economic results, for a fire service.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 9SCOPE AND LIMITS OF THE STUDY
3. Scope and Limits of the Study
Scope Limits
The first part of the study focuses on demonstrating that Similar to any other rigorous study, and in order to ensure that we
investing in prevention initiatives are bearing fruit, despite the conduct a large-scale groundbreaking study without reference to
increase in the number of residential buildings over time, for such an exercise in the world, it is essential to rely on robust and
a given territory. If no prevention initiative were implemented, reliable data. The data-gathering process, which lacks consistent
it would be logical to assume that the fire rate (total number standardization across fire services in general, made data mining
of fires in relation to the total number of residential buildings), and cleaning difficult. For lack of consistency or robustness,
would increase proportionately to the increased number of some aspects of this research had to be put aside.
buildings, over time. This premise does not take into account
the obsolescence of the built heritage which gradually increases For some of the cities studied in Quebec, fire prevention
the risks, the introduction of all types of new technological risks investments are largely linked to the adoption of fire safety
in buildings, or the economic context which can, among other cover plans3. For budgetary or other issues, fire services make
things, increase fires of criminal origin. investments in fire prevention in a sporadic and non-linear
manner over time. We therefore sometimes need to rely on
So why is the number of fires continuously decreasing, since the averages over time.
cities studied see the number of residential buildings increase
over the years? The declining rate in the number of fires in Discretionary prevention initiatives implemented by each
proportion to the variable increase in the number of residential city’s fire service vary and are tailored to suit local needs. The
buildings varies according to several factors, including the effectiveness of these initiatives is a caveat that this study did not
economic context of each city studied. The type of building and take into account. The disparity between these initiatives forces
the materials used are also factors that could cause the data us to stick to purely budgetary data, proportionately to the fire
to vary. service’s total budget.
For example, the construction of 20 single-family homes in a Regulations governing building construction (active/passive
neighbourhood takes longer to complete and results in lower prevention) and their application may be of variable geometry
housing density as opposed to a condominium building with among the cities studied, depending on whether there is little or
250 apartments. This example shows the undeniable scope no standardization or clear political orientation. These differences
of the protective measures offered by fire prevention through are in addition to factors influencing the variance of the results on
regulations, and which helps make buildings safer with active and the economic impact, depending on the region studied.
passive measure to protect the public.
We also noted some disparities in counting the number of
In the second part, with improved protection for residential evacuees of a residential building fire, in both the intervention
buildings (active and passive prevention) and the efficiency report by the fire officers and the voluntary organizations that
of prevention activities by the local fire service (discretionary provide relief to the victims.
prevention), we focus our attention on reducing fatalities, injuries
Statistically speaking, the size of the sample somewhat limits
and evacuating citizens and firefighters in the case of a fire. This
the ability to draw conclusions indicating very strong long-term
is when prevention has an economic impact on economic and
trends. Our data sampling dates back to the adoption of the
social variables as lives are saved, injuries are less serious
first fire safety cover plans in the early 2000s for the two fire
or avoided.
services studied. With a database going back further in time,
we could have carried out a more in-depth analysis which would
certainly have made it possible to identify more robust causal
links with the adoption of regulations or the implementation of
a discretionary prevention program.
3 https://www.securitepublique.gouv.qc.ca/securite-incendie/ssi/schema-risques.html
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 11INTRODUCTION OF THE TWO SAMPLE FIRE SERVICES
4. Introduction of the Two Sample
Fire Services
In this study, these are the two sample fire services:
Laval Fire Services and MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services.
The historical, territorial and demographic characteristics of these two municipalities, as well as the profile of the two fire prevention
services are described in Appendix II.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 13LITERATURE OVERVIEW
5. Literature Overview
To help us define our methodology and be consistent with the
best possible references in the field, we sought comparative and
complementary studies of the same nature. We opted to consider as a
reference studies focusing on different aspects of prevention, whatever
the field concerned.
Appendix III contains a literature review of the studies and reports which helped us build the methodology of the current study. A wide
range of research fields were considered to ensure that we address all perspectives that are coherent with and relevant to the objective of
this study. Some reports provided good cost-benefit analyses of investments in prevention and intervention measures.
This literature overview revealed that several studies were conducted on the economic benefits of fire prevention initiatives
before ours, but using national data, for lack of more local data such as is being used in this study. The analysis of a specific
fire prevention organization, for a single territory, is to our knowledge, a first with regard to the subject studied.
In addition, several documents and research studies focused mainly on the economic benefits of the intervention of firefighters or rather on
research to identify major trends over time on material losses and on the cost-benefit analysis of fire prevention.
This literature overview reveals a strong willingness to examine the issues related to the economic repercussions, in all forms, of a fire
service’s activities (material losses, preservation of lives, loss of natural resources, deaths, injuries, preservation of businesses, etc.).
Also of interest is the fundamental role that standardization can have in compiling the real impact of intervention and prevention, thus
highlighting the vital role of the fire services.
The search for a tool to achieve this seems to be a common goal for all the researchers consulted. The studies compiled here are just
steps in that direction.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 15PART 1: MEASUREMENT OF THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF FIRE PREVENTION IN DISASTER REDUCTION
6. Part 1:
Measurement of the Economic
Benefits of fire Prevention in
Disaster Reduction
The starting point of this analysis, which aims to demonstrate the
economic benefits of fire prevention, is based on the orientations of the
Quebec Ministry of Public Security relating to fire safety, published in
May 2001 and still currently in force in Quebec4.
The Minister suggests a fire risk management model, with the main emphasis on “risk analysis so as to identify preventive measures
designed to reduce the likelihood of a fire occurring (reduction of the occurrence).
The first objective suggested by the Ministry to reduce the damage attributable to the fire is the following: “Considering the proven
effectiveness of the preventive measures in the fight against fires, place the responsibility of protecting the citizens and the heritage
against the fire using, on a priority basis, approaches and preventive measures.”
Note that three national studies5 provided the methodological starting point. They made it possible to better define the macroeconomic
variables to be considered, making them adaptable to a more local context, namely for a single territory to be protected.
There are many different consequences resulting from fires and a multitude of methods can be used to categorize the investment
components and costs in fire prevention.
Investments and costs can be broken down into three categories:
1 Anticipated investments: are mainly investments incurred for the protection and for preventive measures implemented by or for the
benefit of potential victims;
These investments are generally broken down into seven components:
• Building fire safety;
• Fire safety measures at the level of structures and infrastructure;
• Education and training in fire safety;
• Administration of the insurance policies;
• Fire safety of consumer goods;
• Research in the field of fires;
• Equipment maintenance and safety measures in the field of fires.
4 https://www.securitepublique.gouv.qc.ca/securite-incendie/publications-et-statistiques/orientations-securite-incendie.html
5 “Total Cost of Fire” studies of Canada, the United States and Australia, referenced in APPENDIX III.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 172. Costs in terms of consequences: these are the costs 6.2 Data for the Laval Fire Services
incurred as a result of a fire and of property, individuals and
private companies being exposed to fire. Here is the description of the variables following the Laval Fire
Services data mining:
Here are the six components that make up these costs:
• Cost of injuries caused by fire; The first variable considered for the final calculation of the
study combines data related to investments in discretionary,
• Loss of built heritage;
active and passive fire prevention:
• Losses in turnover;
• Costs of environmental damage; Discretionary prevention
• Costs in terms of cultural heritage; Between 2006 and 2019, data on the evolution of Laval Fire
• Peripheral economic costs. Services’ fire prevention investments were gathered for Laval Fire
Services’ investments in discretionary fire prevention activities.
3. Intervention costs: these are costs associated with We added the investments associated with each initiative in
extinguishing a fire and subsequent clean-up. person time and material (residential visits by firefighters,
awareness sessions in daycares, newcomers to the territory,
• Fire service response costs;
play for grade 5 students, fire station open house, national fire
• Costs relating to volunteer firefighters; prevention week, City of Laval firefighters’ celebration event,
• Costs of private fire services. research program on the causes and circumstances of fires).
These investments and costs represent an exhaustive inventory
Active and passive prevention
of monetary data related to prevention and fires. In our opinion,
fire services do not have reliable and sufficiently old data for all 1. Investments in safety measures for a building: since
of these components, which would ensure a greater reliability in these investments are difficult to calculate on an individual
such an approach, at least in Quebec or in Canada. basis for each construction, we consulted organizations
knowledgeable in these investments, namely the Régie du
In the light of this observation, we concluded that with the data
bâtiment du Quebec (Quebec agency responsible for the
currently available, an adapted methodology could provide
Building Act) and the National Research Council of Canada.
us with fairly solid results. This would allow us to develop a
methodology capable of providing results which fairly accurately Based on our research results, the methodology we chose
demonstrate the economic benefits of fire prevention activities. was to assign an average value to the investment in fire
prevention of 2.5% of the total building cost. This value,
The following section presents the data used in our study. multiplied by the total value of building permits per year,
enabled us to calculate the annual value of investments
in security measures for buildings. (approximately 0.5%
6.1 Methodology
in buildings residential up to 4% of high-risk industrial
Four variables were used in this analysis. They are used to buildings). This value, multiplied by the total value of building
measure the total investment in fire prevention, that is, what a permits per year, enabled us to calculate the value of
fire service has invested over time for all fire prevention activities investments in security measures for buildings. However,
in order to reduce the loss of human and material life. this data, combined with discretionary investments in
prevention, does not significantly contribute to creating a
It was difficult to convert the methodology used with national robust causal link with the drop in the number of fires.
data from the reference studies, in order to develop a more
local calculation approach for a single fire service, in a specific
jurisdiction. What we call “fire prevention investments” are
sometimes defined as the costs of fire prevention initiatives of the
two sample fire services. The detailed description of the variables
is presented in Appendix IV.
18 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention2. Investments in the security of structures and The second variable is the number of residential building
infrastructure: two factors prevented us from obtaining fires for the territory served. We were able to rely on a 13-year
convincing data ensuring a reliable calculation of these sampling, from 2006 to 2019.
investments. First, following the same references as in
number 1, we were not able to draw a clear-cut conclusion The third variable is the value of the built heritage or the real
on the percentage to be used for this calculation. Second, estate value of all the buildings in the territory served. We
the very unequal value of infrastructure projects, according were able to date back to 1999, and therefore rely on a 20-
to our definition of this category, makes the calculation year sampling.
exercise risky.
The fourth variable is the total annual value of building
For example, projects to replace underground water network permits. We were able to date back to 2000, and therefore rely
pipes and building a viaduct fall under the same category of on a 19-year sample.
infrastructure as a tunnel, but do not require the same safety
measures, which is why no conclusion on these investments 6.3 Results for Laval Fire Services
could not be drawn.
Laval Fire Services’ investments in fire prevention have increased
3. Administration of residential building fire insurance claims: significantly over the years, due in particular by the increase in
no robust data could be found. resources related to fire prevention (implementation of activities
for citizens, inspections, personnel recruitment, etc.).
4. Fire safety features in everyday consumer goods: no robust
data could be found. From $6,573 in 2002, investments in prevention rose to
5. All research undertaken in fire safety by the public and $383,607 in 2019, an average annual growth of 27.0%.
private sectors: no robust data could be found.
6. Fire safety equipment maintenance: no robust data could
be found.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 196.3.1 Statistical Report for Laval Fire Services
An inversion of Laval’s historical fire curve occurred as of 2015.
1. There is a positive relationship between prevention investments and the preservation of built heritage, while observing a decrease
in the number of fires.
2. The Laval Fire Services increased its investments in fire prevention by 12% per year from 2006 and 2019; this allowed for the
preservation of the built heritage, which experienced an annual increase of 6.5% during these same years.
3. There was an average annual 2.4% decrease in the number of fires from 2006 to 2019, representing a cumulative decrease of
26.7% over 12 years6.
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019
400 450,000
350 400,000
300 350,000
300,000
250
250,000
200
200,000
150
150,000
100 100,000
50 50,000
0 0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Fires (left scale)
Investments (right scale)
The evolution of the property assessments VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019
400 40,000,000,000
350 35,000,000,000
300 30,000,000,000
250 25,000,000,000
200 20,000,000,000
6 150
The percentage was calculated using the compound annual rate. 15,000,000,000
100 10,000,000,000
20 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention
50 5,000,000,000
0 0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19Investments (right scale)
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Fires (left scale) Property assessments (right scale)
The evolution of the property assessments VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019
400 40,000,000,000
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS property assessments between 2006 and 2019
350 35,000,000,000
450,000 40
300 30,000,000,000
400,000 35
250 350,000 25,000,000,000
30
300,000
200 25
20,000,000,000
250,000
20
150 200,000 15,000,000,000
15
150,000
100 10,000,000,000
10
100,000
50 50,000 5
5,000,000,000
0 0
0 0
20 14
20 15
20 16
20 17
20 18
20 019
20
20 07
20
20 09
20 10
20 11
20 12
20 13
20
20
26
2
2
20
20
20
20
20
2
2
2
2
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0
07
08
19
10
11
12
00
0
0
0
0
0
06
8
Prevention investments in $ (left scale)
Fires (left scale) Property assessments (right scale)
Property assessments in $ Billions (right scale)
The evolution of the number of fires VS the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
400 900
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS property assessments between 2006 and 2019
350 800
450,000 40
300 700
400,000 35
600
350,000
250 30
300,000 500
200 25
250,000 400
150 20
200,000 300
15
150,000
100 200
100,000 10
50 100
50,000 5
0 0
0 0
20
20
202
202
2020
2020
20201
20201
20 014
20 015
20 16
20 17
20 8
20 9
2
2
20
20
20
20
2
2
0080
0091
1010
1111
12 2
13 3
14
15
16
17
18
19
0
0
060
070
1
1
6
7
8
9
Fires (left scale)
Prevention investments
Construction in $ in
permit value (left scale) (righ scale)
$ Millions
Property assessments in $ Billions (right scale)
Comprehensive
The evolution of the number Study
of fires VS theonvalue
the Economic and Social
of building Benefits
permits of Fire Prevention
between 2006 and| 21
2019
400 900
350 800Decrease in number of fires, despite the increase in built heritage and prevention investments.
(the data presented on the 2 axes have been transformed into logarithms, to allow the visualization of the three curves on the
same graphs)
Changes in the number of fires, investment in fire prevention and the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
2.60 9.00
2.55 8.50
8.00
2.50
7.50
2.45
7.00
2.40
6.50
2.35
6.00
2.30
5.50
2.25 5.00
2.20 4.50
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
19
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Fires (left scale)
Prevention investments (right scale)
Value of building permits (right scale)
22 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention300 30,000,000,000
250 25,000,000,000
200 20,000,000,000
150 15,000,000,000
6.3.2 Economic Benefits for Laval Fire Services
100 10,000,000,000
Our statistical analysis shows that investments in fire prevention have a significant economic benefit on a number of variables.
50 5,000,000,000
For the period from 2006 to 2019, Laval’s annual prevention investments averaged $227,719. For the same period, the preservation
0
of built heritage, net of losses due to fires, stands at $ 25 billion on average. 0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Our statistical results show that on average, over the period from 2006 to 2019, a 1% increase in prevention
Firescontributed
investments (approximately $2,270) (left scale)to an increase in Property assessments
net property value of 0.5%,(right scale) an increase
representing
of $130 million.
Of course, there are other factors that explain the performance of the property assessment. The current exercise does not intend to identify
all the factors that explain the increase in Laval’s property assessments, but it is undeniable that investments in fire prevention have
statistically contributed to the increase observed between 2006 and 2019.
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS property assessments between 2006 and 2019
450,000 40
400,000 35
350,000 30
300,000
25
250,000
20
200,000
15
150,000
100,000 10
50,000 5
0 0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
06
07
08
19
10
11
Prevention investments in $ (left scale)
Property assessments in $ Billions (right scale)
The evolution of the number of fires VS the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
400 900
350 800
300 700
600
250
500
200
400
150
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 23 300
100 200
50 1006.4 MRC de La Matapédia Data The second variable is the number of residential building
fires for the territory served. We were able to rely on a 13-year
Here is the description of the variables following the data mining sampling, from 2006 to 2019.
of the MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services:
The third variable is the value of the built heritage or the
The first variable considered for the final calculation of the property value of all the buildings for the territory served.
study combines data related to investments in discretionary, We were able to date back to 1999, and therefore rely on a
active and passive fire prevention: 20-year sampling.
Discretionary Prevention The fourth variable is the total annual value of building
permits. We were able to date back to 2006, and therefore rely
From 2006 to 2019, data on the progress of fire prevention on a 13-year sample.
investments at the MRC de La Matapédia were collected for
investments in discretionary fire prevention activities. We
added the investments associated with each initiative in person
6.5 MRC de La Matapédia results
time and material (residential visits by firefighters, daycare Our statistical analysis shows that investments in fire prevention
awareness program, information sessions in primary schools have a significant economic impact on a number of variables.
and residences for seniors, training on the use of portable
fire extinguishers, open houses at fire stations and public The MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services’ prevention investments
education). totalled $27,242 in 2006, and increased to $47,962 in 2019,
representing an average annual increase of 4.8%.
Active and passive prevention
1. Similar to the Laval Fire Services, we chose as a
methodology to assign an average value to the fire
prevention investments of 2.5% of the total cost
of constructing a building. This value, multiplied by
the total value of building permits for a year, enabled us
to calculate the annual value of investments in security
measures for buildings.
2. Investments in safety for structures and infrastructure:
two factors prevented us from obtaining convincing data
ensuring a reliable calculation of these investments. First,
following the same references as in number 1, we were
not able to draw a clear-cut conclusion on the percentage
to be used for this calculation. Secondly, the very unequal
value of infrastructure projects, according to our definition
of this category, makes the calculation exercise risky.
3. Administration of residential building fire insurance claims:
no robust data could be found.
4. Fire safety features in everyday consumer goods: no robust
data could be found.
5. Total research undertaken in fire safety by the public and
private sectors: no robust data could be found.
6. Fire safety equipment maintenance: no robust data could
be found.
24 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention6.5.1 Statistical Review of the MRC Matapédia
An inversion of the historical fire curve for the MRC Matapéria occurred as of 2011.
1. As indicated in the following charts, there is a positive relationship between prevention investments and the preservation of built
heritage, while observing a decrease in the number of fires.
2. The increase in fire prevention investments by the MRC de La Matapédia Fire Services was 4.8% per year from 2006 to 2019; this
allowed the preservation of the built heritage, which experienced an annual increase of 5.5% during this period.
3. The number of fires decreased annually from 2006 to 2019, going from 56 to 43, an average annual decrease of -2.2%
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019
in 13 years7.
60 60,000
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019
50
60 50,000
60,000
40 40,000
50 50,000
30
40 30,000
40,000
20
30 20,000
30,000
10
20 10,000
20,000
0 0
10 10,000
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0 0
Fires (left scale) Prevention investments in $ (right scale)
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Fires (left scale) Prevention investments in $ (right scale)
The evolution of the property assessments VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019
60 1,600
The evolution of the property assessments VS the number of fires between 2006 and 2019 1,400
50
60 1,600
1,200
40 1,400
50 1,000
30 1,200
800
40
1,000
600
20
30 800
400
10 600
20 200
0 400
0
10
200
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0 0
Fires (left scale)
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Property assessments in millions $ (right scale)
7
Fires (left scale)
The percentage was calculated using the compound annual rate.
Property assessments in millions $ (right scale)
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 25
The evolution of the number of fires VS the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
60 18
The evolution of the number of fires VS the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019Fires (left scale)
Property assessments in millions $ (right scale)
The evolution of the number of fires VS the value of building permits between 2006 and
60
The evolution50
of the number of fires VS the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
60 18
40 16
50
30 14
40 12
20 10
30
8
20
10 6
0 4
10
2
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
0 0
06 2
07 20
08 201
09 2013
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Fires (left scale)
01
06
07
08
09
11
14
15
16
17
18
19
0
2
Fires (left scale) Building permits value in millions de $ (right scale)
Building permits value in millions de $ (right scale)
Decrease in number of fires, despite the increase in built heritage and prevention investments.
(the data presented on the 2 axes have been transformed into logarithms, to allow the visualization of the three curves on the same
graphs)
Changes in the number of fires, investment in fire prevention and the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
hanges in the number of fires, investment in fire prevention and the value of building permits between 2006 and 2019
1.80 7.50
7.50
1.70 7.00 7.00
1.60 6.50 6.50
6.00 6.00
1.50
5.50 5.50
1.40
5.00 5.00
1.30 4.50 4.50
1.20 4.00 4.00
1.10 3.50
3.50
3.00
1.00 3.00
20
20
20
20
20 00
20 20
20 20
20 2
20
20
20
20 2
20 13
20 014
06
07
08
09
10 6
11 07
12 0
1300
1240
125
16
17
18
19
2
2
20
2
20
20
20
20
20
0
0
1
11
1
15
16
17
18
19
8
9
0
Fires (left scale)
Building permits value (rightFires (left scale)
scale)
Building
Prevention investments (right scale) permits value (right scale)
Prevention investments (right scale)
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS property assessments between 2006 and 201
60,000 The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS prop
26 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits
50,000 60,000of Fire Prevention
40,000 50,000
30,0007.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
6.5.2 Economic Benefits for the MRC de La Matapédia
4.00
Once again, our statistical analysis shows that investments in fire prevention have a significant economic impact on a number of variables.
3.50
For the period from 2006 to 2019, the MRC 3.00
de La Matapédia’s Fire Services’ prevention investments averaged $37 0008. For the same
period, the preservation of built heritage, net of losses due to fires, stands at $ 37 million on average.
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Our statistical results show that on average over the period from 2006 to 2019, a 1% increase in prevention
investments led to an increase in net property value of 0.3%, an increase of $37M.
ght scale)
ight scale)
Similar to Laval’s Fire Services, other factors influence the performance of property assessments. As we pointed out earlier, the current
exercise is not intended to statistically explain the cause of the property assessment variation, but instead wants to validate whether the
investments in fire prevention have statistically contributed to the increase observed between 2006 and 2019.
The evolution of investments in fire prevention VS property assessments between 2006 and 2019
60,000 1,600
1,400
50,000
1,200
40,000
1,000
30,000 800
600
20,000
400
10,000
200
0 0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
06
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Prevention investments in $ (left scale)
Property assessments in millions $ (right scale)
8 We deliberately excluded the observation for 2006 with regard to prevention investments, which was characterized by extremely low data compared to the entire
sample.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 27PART 2: MEASUREMENT OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF FIRE PREVENTION INVESTMENTS
7. Part 2: Measurement of
the Economic and social Impact of
Fire Prevention Investments
In the literature review of this study, several documents address the
economic and social aspects of the subjects being addressed. In this study,
we wanted to address this aspect by considering that beyond the scope
of prevention investments relating to the construction and operation of
residential buildings, there are benefits in terms of reducing the number
deaths and injuries and increasing the number of evacuees.
To develop our methodology, two questions guided us when we 7.1 Methodology
started our reflection, to properly target the avenues to be taken
and to identify the relevant economic and social variants for this The methodology of Part 2 is a little more complex than
exercise: the one applied in Part 1. We have identified three stages
through which we obtain results enabling the establishment
1. Is there a link between prevention investments (costs) and of convincing statistical relationships between fire prevention
the economic and social environment? investments and the economic impact on the community.
2. What is the link between prevention investments (costs) and Appendix V presents the complete methodology developed to
certain relevant economic and social variables that would calculate the social and social impact of fire prevention, and
allow fire prevention to have a global economic influence? in particular to properly identify the evacuees in the case of a
residential building fire.
Two types of factors contribute to determining the economic and
social benefits of a situation or a subject which we have taken Where data was available, we were able to separate the types
into account in this study: of evacuees into two categories (types 1 and 2), depending
on whether they were evacuated from their home in less
Endogenous factors: these are factors over which we have no
than 24 h (type 1) or in more than 24 h (type 2). The reasons
control, but which vary depending on the exogenous factors. In
and the process that explain this distinction are contained in
a residential building fire addressed in this study, the following
Appendix VI.
factors are considered to be exogenous: individuals evacuated,
injured, dead, number of calls, regional employment and It is important to mention that data permitting, in order to set
median salary. a monetary value for injured individuals (value of the economic
benefit in dollars) a reliable and recognized value for individuals
Exogenous factors: these are predetermined factors over
slightly injured or seriously injured must be determined. Based
which the fire service exercises control, such as investments in
on our research, only one reference shed light on this type
active and passive prevention (standards and regulations) and
of assessment.
discretionary prevention. Considering these two types of factors
through the eyes of someone working inside a fire service is
quite different than from the point of view of an elected official or
a taxpayer.
Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire Prevention | 29The Quinet Report9, published in France in 2013 and referenced by Ms. Cécile Canouet in her study “Valorisation économique de l’activité
opérationnelle des sapeurs-pompiers” (Economic valuation of firefighters’ operational activities) (see the literature review in Appendix III),
establishes the reference values to be used in France:
• Statistical value of a human life (SVHL): 4,4 M$ CAN (2013)
• Value of a serious injury: 15% of the SVHL
• Value of a light injury: 2% of the SVHL
Although we were strongly tempted to use these values to measure the monetary value of the impact of the prevention investments on
evacuees and individuals seriously or lightly injured, since there is a lack of studies on the subject, we did not feel comfortable using them.
According to the methodology used on the basis of our research and the available data, it is reasonable to conclude that with the
contribution of a simulated 1% increase in a fire service’s prevention investments, we could logically obtain the following expected
statistical relationships:
Social variables Active/passive prevention Discretionary prevention
Evacuees - type 1 + +
Evacuees - type 2 + +
Injured civilians + +
Deaths - -
Injured firefighters - -
7.2 Data for Laval Fire Services There is a statistical relationship between investment in active/
passive prevention and the reduction in the number of dead
All data on evacuees used for the Laval Fire Services originate citizens and injured firefighters: for each 1% increase in
from an analysis of data from three different sources: prevention investments, the number of dead citizens
decreases by 0.8% and the number of injured firefighters
1. Firefighters’ intervention reports; decreases by 0.9%.
2. Data from the Laval Social Emergency, an organization
which provides relief to disaster victims; Further analysis reveals a cause-and-effect relationship between
discretionary prevention investments, which acts mainly on
3. Data provided by the Red Cross, which offers disaster the behaviour of individuals, and the number of evacuees of
victims relief in addition to Laval Social Emergency. types 1 and 2, for the period from 2006 to 2019. The results
suggest that each 1% increase in discretionary prevention
7.3 Results for the Laval Fire Services investments generates a 3.3% increase in the number of
type 1 evacuees and a 2.9% increase in type 2 evacuees.
Laval Fire Services’ statistical analysis provides interesting
results for active/passive prevention and discretionary prevention
activities. However, it does not suggest a significant correlation
between discretionary prevention investments, on the one hand,
and the number of injuries among firefighters or the number of
deaths.
9 uinet E. (2013), L’évaluation socio-économique des investissements publics, Commissariat général à la stratégie et à la prospective, France, 354 p.
Q
https://www.strategie.gouv.fr/sites/strategie.gouv.fr/files/atoms/files/cgsp_evaluation_socioeconomique_29072014.pdf
30 | Comprehensive Study on the Economic and Social Benefits of Fire PreventionOur empirical results do not lead us to conclude that there is a robust macroeconomic relationship between prevention investments,
employment and median income in the Laval region.
For the Laval Fire Services, a simulated increase of 1% allowed us to obtain the following statistical relationships:
Social variables Active/passive prevention Discretionary prevention
Evacuees - type 1 Not significant (=0) +3,3 %
Evacuees - type 2 Not significant (=0) +2,9 %
Injured civilians Not significant (=0) +0,3 %
Deaths -0,8 % Not significant (=0)
Injured firefighters -0,9 % Not significant (=0)
In summary, the simulated 1% increase in prevention Further analysis reveals a cause-and-effect relationship between
investments produces the following results: prevention investments and the number of evacuees for the
period from 2006 to 2019. The results suggest that each
• 3.3% increase in the number of type 1 evacuees; 1% increase in prevention investments generates a 2%
• 2.9% increase in the number of type 2 evacuees; increase in the number of evacuees.
• 0.3% increase in the number of civilian injuries; Likewise, the employment rate in the region also seems to
• 0.8% decrease in the number of deaths; be strongly correlated with prevention investments for the
same period.
• 0.9% decrease in the number of injured firefighters.
There is a strong and robust macroeconomic relationship
between prevention investments and employment in the MRC
7.4 Results for the MRC de La Matapédia de La Matapédia. Empirical results suggest that each 1%
Fire Service increase in prevention investments generates a 10%
The statistical analysis of the MRC de La Matapédia suggests increase in regional employment (approximately 60
interesting results in terms of prevention. Although it does not additional jobs).
show a significant correlation between prevention investments,
on the one hand, and the number of injured firefighters or the Our statistical analysis also revealed a very strong correlation
number of deaths, on the other hand, there seems to be a between prevention investments and the median income for the
favourable positive statistical relationship between the MRC de La Matapédia, from 2006 to 2019. A 1% increase
prevention investments and the number of evacuees. in prevention investments generates a 3% increase in
median income for the MRC10.
As the baseline data was not from the same database as for the
Laval Fire Services, we determined that there would be only one
type of evacuee rather than two.
10 According to the Institut de la statistique du Québec (Quebec Statistical Office), the regional median income was $36,500 in 2019.
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