Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in New Zealand - for WSP and the Helen Clark Foundation
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Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in New Zealand for WSP and the Helen Clark Foundation July 2021
Authorship This report has been prepared by Senior Economist Brad Olsen, with input from Chief Forecaster Gareth Kiernan. Email: Brad.Olsen@infometrics.co.nz All work and services rendered are at the request of, and for the purposes of the client only. Neither Infometrics nor any of its employees accepts any responsibility on any grounds whatsoever, including negligence, to any other person or organisation. While every effort is made by Infometrics to ensure that the information, opinions, and forecasts are accurate and reliable, Infometrics shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of the client’s decisions made in reliance of any report provided by Infometrics, nor shall Infometrics be held to have given or implied any warranty as to whether any report provided by Infometrics will assist in the performance of the client’s functions.
3 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Table of contents
Executive summary ........................................................................ 4
Changing migration trends in NZ ...............................................5
Migration boom in last decade ............................................................................................... 5
Not as many shifting to NZ as thought ................................................................................ 6
Who’s coming and going? .........................................................................................................7
Slightly elevated NZ citizen arrivals….................................................................................... 8
…but a collapse in NZ citizenship departures ..................................................................... 8
Understand those coming home ................................................9
Younger people moving back to New Zealand .................................................................. 9
Opportunities and challenges.................................................... 10
How do we keep the people we have? ................................................................................ 10
How to we attract others into New Zealand? ..................................................................... 10
What does this mean for cities and regions? ..................................................................... 10
Appendix ......................................................................................... 114 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Executive summary
As part of WSP and the Helen Clark Foundation’s Welcome Home: Meeting the
Expectations of the Returning Kiwi Diaspora event, Infometrics has produced an analysis
of New Zealand’s recent migration trends to help inform discussions.
• Net migration into New Zealand has fallen from around 50,000pa over the five
years prior to COVID-19 to under 10,000pa.
• Although nearly 135,000 people have gone through MIQ over the last 12
months, total migrant arrivals only totalled around 39,000.
• Non-New Zealand citizens have been the key driver of this overall fall in net
migration, with net migration for this group falling from an inflow of around
60,000pa to an outflow of 10,000pa.
• New Zealand citizen arrivals have turned positive for the first time in at least
four decades, with net inflows of around 20,000pa.
• Migrant arrivals of New Zealand citizens have increased slightly, but the
key driver of higher net New Zealand citizen migration is lower departures
from New Zealand, with departures falling from between 40,000-50,000pa
to below 9,000pa.
• New Zealanders not leaving have been a key trend since COVID-19.
• Google Trends show higher interest in moving to New Zealand.
• Returnees to New Zealand have generally been younger than 40 years old
• Importantly, nearly a quarter (24%) of returnees would leave New Zealand
if the global COVID-19 situation improved.5 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Changing migration trends in NZ
Net migration has been an important part of New Zealand’s economic story throughout
the last decade. But with borders closed, and the world still grappling with a devastating
COVID-19 pandemic, changes have emerged in New Zealand’s migration trends.
This brief report will detail those previous migration flows, analyse how things have
changed, and examine what future challenges may be in store for New Zealand.
Migration boom in last decade
In brief, migration flows into New Zealand include people who are moving to New
Zealand permanently or for a sustained period of time. Stats NZ defines migrants as
people who remain in New Zealand for 12 of the following 16 months after they arrive
here. Migration flows into New Zealand are driven by a range of groups, including for
work, education, and a variety of other purposes.
Migration trends throughout the second half of the 2010s saw a sustained rise in net
migration into New Zealand. Between 2015 and 2018, New Zealand’s net migration held
above 50,000pa, in contrast to the period following the Global Financial Crisis and 2011
Christchurch earthquake when New Zealand experienced a net outflow of people (see
Graph 1).
Graph 1
Net migration has boosted the population New Zealand
Net migration, annual runninng totals
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
COVID-19 substantially altered migration patterns. Many people who entered New
Zealand in 2019 and who were expected to have left throughout 2020 weren’t able to
leave due to the loss or international air connections and closure of New Zealand’s
borders. This trend meant that net migration into New Zealand soared to nearly
92,000pa over the 12 months to March 2020, before collapsing to below 10,000pa in
early 2021.
The shift in migration flows has also changed expectations for parts of the New Zealand
economy. Fewer net migrant arrivals mean some firms are struggling without access to
skilled migrants. Future trend growth in economic activity could also be more muted
without the strong population growth seen over previous years.6 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Monthly net migration shows the boost in migration towards the end of 2019 and into
early 2020, before monthly net flows fell by 90% or more (see Graph 2).
Graph 2
From around 6,000 to below 500 per month Monthly net migration
Net migration per month, migrant arrivals minus departures
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
18 19 20 21
Overall, monthly net migration fell from an average of around 6,000 per month over the
five years prior to COVID-19 affecting the numbers, to below 500 per month since April
2020.
Not as many shifting to NZ as thought
Since COVID-19 hit, considerable focus has been paid to the apparent influx of New
Zealanders back into the country.
Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) data from MBIE shows over 140,000 people
have been through MIQ since late March 2020 (see Graph 3).
Graph 3
Return to home base Since 26 March 2020
Cumulative total of people through MIQ
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21
However, this data requires closer scrutiny, with a large number of “returning” New
Zealanders being people who were overseas for short-term travel, OEs, or who would
have otherwise still been returning to New Zealand at some stage soon. MIQ data shows
that for the 12-month period to the end of April 2021, 135,000 people had completed7 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
MIQ. Stats NZ migration estimates show total migration arrivals of just over 39,000 over
the same 12-month period (see Graph 4).
Graph 4
Arrivals and departures have plunged Total Arrivals
Migration estimates by direction, annual runninng totals Total Depart
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
To put the current migration inflow in context, annual migrant arrivals into New Zealand
had previously been sitting at around 140,000pa between the end of 2015 and mid-
2019. Arrivals rose rapidly in late 2019 and early 2020 to above 180,000pa, as people
arriving in New Zealand were reclassified as migrant arrivals as the borders closed and
they couldn’t leave as intended.
Who’s coming and going?
Net migration by citizenship shows two key trend changes since COVID-19 has affected
migration trends. Net non-New Zealand citizen migration has been the main driver of
the plummet in overall net migration, falling from a COVID-induced peak inflow of
nearly 80,500pa to an outflow of nearly 10,000pa (see Graph 5).
Graph 5
Non-NZers fall, NZ citizen migration rises Net NZ
Net migration, annual runninng totals, by citizenship Net Non-NZ
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
However, of greater focus is the rise in net migration of New Zealand citizens into New
Zealand since COVID-19 started to influence the figures. For the first time in at least four8 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
decades,1 net New Zealand citizen migration has turned positive, rising to a peak of
around 23,000pa in the latter stages of 2020, and currently sitting at around 15,000pa.
Slightly elevated NZ citizen arrivals…
All these trends help get to the crux of migration flows of New Zealanders into and out
of the country. Essentially, New Zealand citizenship migration arrivals have remained
fairly steady at between 28,000 and 40,000pa until late 2019.
New Zealand citizenship migrant arrivals then rose to a peak of nearly 47,000pa in
March 2020, before steadily falling to under 25,000pa in recent months (see Graph 6).
Graph 6
Not a lot of New Zealanders are leaving NZ Arrivals
Migration by direction and citizenship, annual runninng totals NZ Departs
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
…but a collapse in NZ citizenship departures
However, the biggest shift in New Zealand citizen migration flows citizens has been in
departures. Between 2014 and mid-2019, migrant departures of New Zealand citizens
have remained steady at around 40,000-50,000pa. However, since COVID-19 has
affected migration flows, New Zealand citizen departures have fallen to below 9,000pa.
1Migration data using the 12/16-month rule is available from Stats NZ back to 2001. However, migration data based
on arrival and departure card intentions also shows persistently large outflows of NZ citizens back to 1979, with the
only periods where the net outflow was below 10,000pa in 1983-84 and 1990-94.9 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Understand those coming home
Although Infometrics’ analysis shows that the number of New Zealanders moving home
isn’t as large as many people might expect, migration into New Zealand will remain a
key part of New Zealand’s population future. Google Trends data shows that the interest
in moving to New Zealand remains at elevated levels (see Graph 7).
Graph 7
Greater interest in moving to New Zealand
Interest over time, 12-month average. 100 = peak popularity
60
50 Move to New Zealand (Google Trends)
40
30
20
10
0
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Caution is needed in reading too much into Google Trends. Higher levels of interest in
moving to New Zealand has not closely tracked actual migration outcomes over time.
However, the higher interest at present is worth noting, as it highlights a potential
greater level of willingness to consider moving in a post-pandemic world.
Younger people moving back to New Zealand
A survey by MBIE of arrivals through MIQ provides a snapshot of who is moving back to
New Zealand. The provisional findings of the Survey2 (between 1 August 2020 and 9
January 2021) are shown in the Appendix (p11), but key points include:
• 55% of returnees were aged between 18 and 39 years
• 38% have lived outside of New Zealand for more than five years
• 37% have a new job in New Zealand, but 35% are not in paid work
• 39% are in Auckland, followed by 14% in Wellington
• Only 21% own or partly own the place they’re living in
• 24% would leave New Zealand if the global COVID-19 situation improved.
2MBIE (2021). The Survey of New Zealand Arrivals. MBIE. Retrieved from
https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/fact-sheets/COVID-19-MBIE-Survey-of-NZ-Arrivals-results-dashboard-1-
Aug-2020-to-9-Jan-2021.pdf on 28 July 2021.10 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Opportunities and challenges
Infometrics analysis of migration trends reveals several opportunities and challenges as
New Zealand moves ahead.
How do we keep the people we have?
Migration trends show not as many migrants are departing New Zealand since the
COVID-19 pandemic hit. With borders closed, and New Zealand’s response to COVID-19
regularly being ranked among the best in the world, this trend isn’t surprising. But with
the world starting to reopen, there is a risk that migrant departures rise significantly as
people in New Zealand again start to consider living and working overseas.
• Opportunity: Ability to keep more New Zealanders in New Zealand
• Challenge: Risk of losing New Zealanders overseas
How to we attract others into New Zealand?
Just as importantly, as New Zealand’s border eventually reopens to the world too, there
is a question over how to best use the strong brand that New Zealand has gained since
COVID-19 hit. This brand could be used to attract both New Zealanders overseas back
as well as new migrants into New Zealand. But with the rest of the world reopening and
economic activity starting to return towards normal, competition for skilled migrant
workers could be fierce, making it difficult for New Zealand to retain skilled staff and
their families.
• Opportunity: Ability to attract overseas New Zealanders back, and attract
overseas skilled migrants into New Zealand
• Challenge: Risk of strong competition globally for skilled migrants
What does this mean for cities and regions?
Previous Infometrics analysis shows that COVID-19 has lifted the incidence of working
from home and increased internal migration into more regional and provincial parts of
New Zealand.3 With affordability and lifestyle considerations becoming more important,
regional centres have experienced a greater level of interest from businesses and
workers about relocating to these areas, alongside a wider talent pool of remote
workers, both of which have positive implications for economic activity in the regions. In
contrast, larger cities and urban centres will need to redefine how they keep and attract
workers and business offices into their areas.
• Opportunity: Ability for regional areas to attract more businesses and workers
• Challenge: Urban centres and cities may find it harder to attract talent
3Olsen, B (2020). Kiwis shifting from cities to the regions. Infometrics. Retrieved from
https://www.infometrics.co.nz/kiwis-shifting-from-cities-to-the-regions/ on 28 July 2021).11 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
Appendix12 Coming home, or not leaving? Changing migration patterns in NZ – June 2021
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