Climate Finance: The Case of Nicaragua - Dr. Paul Oquist Nicaragua Member of the Standing Committee of Climate Finance for Latin America and the ...
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Climate Finance:
The Case of Nicaragua
Dr. Paul Oquist
Nicaragua
Member of the Standing Committee of Climate Finance
for Latin America and the Caribbean
Manila, Philippines, 16 July, 2013 1
EXPANSION AND CONVERSION OF THE
ENERGY MATRIX: 25% RENEWABLE IN 2007 TO
90% IN 2020
Non renovables: 10%
No renovables: 6%
6,000
FUEL OIL, 10.2%
Biomass, 4.2%
5,000 Wind, 9.8%
FUEL OIL, 6.4%
Biomass, 5.1%
Wind, 12.1%
4,000
Generación eléctrica (GWH)
Non renewable: 64%
Geothermal, 27.5%
Renewable: 90%
Renovables: 94%
3,000
Non renewable:
Geothermal, 35.7%
DIESEL OIL, 8.0%
FUEL OIL, 64.2%
75%
2,000
FUEL OIL, 66.6%
Hydro, 47.3%
Renewable: 36%
Biomass, 6.8%
Wind, 6.6% Hydro, 40.7%
1,000
Renewable:
Biomass, 8.4% Geo, 14.3%
25%
Geo, 6.1%
Hydro, 10.8% Hydro, 8.0%
-
2007 2012 2017 2022
NICARAGUA'S ENERGY PROJECTS
SOLAR PANELS
MICRO AND SMALL
GEOTHERMAL HYDROELECTRIC
San Jacinto-Tizate (72MW) PROJECTS FOR
Casita-San Cristóbal
ISOLATED AREAS
(35MW)
(107MW; US$ 585.59 mill) TUMARÍN HYDROELECTRIC
PLANT, RAAS
253 MW; US$ 1,100 Billion
(2018)
San Jacinto-Tizate
Other Hydroelectric Projects:
Solar Project in La
Larreynaga(17.2 MW, US67.9 mill)
Trinidad, Diriamba Hydropantasma (12MW, US$37.4 mill)
El Diamante (5MW, US$13.4 mill)
Eolo (Rivas) (44MW,
(34MW, US$118.7 million)
US$105.9 mill)
Blue Power (Rivas)
(40MW, US110mill)
ALBA Rivas (Rivas)
(40MW, US$87 mill) 3
(124 MW; US$ 302.9 million)
BIOMASS
• Projects based on agribusiness plants
residues :
• Sugarcane
• Oil palm (oil)
• urban waste
Net
Present generation in
contribution 2012
Ingenio Nicaragua Sugar
Estate 30 MW 77.3 MW
Ingenio San Antonio 30 MW 48.5 MW
• CASUR –Benjamín Zeledón Sugarmill
(2015): 24MW; US$24.8 millons
• Montelimar Sugarmill (2016): 30MW;
US$27.8 millons
2012-2016: 54MW* y US$52.6 Millones
*on season
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN HYDROPOWER
Centrales en Operación
-Santa Bárbara
-Centroamérica
-Las Cañas
-El Sardinal
-El Wawule
-Siempre Vivas
-Salto Grande
Proyectos en Construcción
-Pantasma
-Larreynaga
-Tumarín
Proyectos con Licencia
- Salto Y-Y
- Piedra Puntuda
- El Diamante
Proyectos Candidatos
-Boboké
-Copalar Bajo
-Consuelo
-Pajaritos
-La Estrella
-Valentín
-Piedra Fina
-Brito
-CorrienteSan
Volcán Casitas Lira Cristóbal. Fuente: INETER
5
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL ESTIMATED AT 1,500 TO 2,000 MW
6
WIND POTENTITAL IN NICARAGUA
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN
WIND PROJECTS
MAP OF SOLAR RADIATION IN NICARAGUA
Increase in the coverage of electricity
Rural Electrification by Extension of Networks
service in Nicaragua (%)
90
85.1
83.1
85 81.6 Noth Sector1
WesternSector
79.4 600 projects
700 projects
80
75.4
RAAN & RAAS 120
75 72.4 projects
68.5
70
65.6
63.4
65 Eastern Sector
60.4 640 projects
60 57.6
Managua 200
55 projects
50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 South Sector
360 projects
Standardization of electrical service
North 90 (14%)
West 100 (16%)
Settlements
Sites in studies
RAAN & RAAS 18 (3%)
for Small
Hydroelectric
Managua 360 (56%)
Plants (SHP)
Oriente 22 (3%)
South 40 (7%)
9
SAVING BY REDUCING OIL IMPORTS FOR ENTRY
OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS
2013-2020
6,000,000 700.0
600.0
5,000,000
500.0
4,000,000
400.0
3,000,000 Barriles
300.0 Millones US$
2,000,000
200.0
1,000,000
100.0
0 0.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020• Brasil presenta la puntuación
más alta con 2.64.
• Nicaragua ocupa el segundo
lugar con una puntuación total
2.13, en gran medida debido a
que encabezó la lista en
términos de inversiones en
energía limpia y disponibilidad
de microcréditos verdes.
• Panamá fue tercero con una
marca de 1,97, gracias a un
importante esfuerzo en la
gestión de las emisiones de
gases de efecto invernadero y
por tener un marco facilitador
acogedor.
11Global Climate Risk Index GERMANWATCH
12CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND LOSSES
NIÑA-NIÑO ALTERNATION Agricultural losses 2005-2010
• 2005: Niña. Damages and losses.
392,000 ha. Planted areas lost
• 2006: Niño. Losses by drought 9% of the total area planted
• 2007: Niño Transition. Drought in the US$ 206.3 million, equivalent to 2.68%
first crop, rainfall deficit in June and of GDP
July.
• 2007: Niña. Losses due to excessive
moisture. ECLAC on Tropical Depresion12-E
(October 2011)
• 2008: Niña. Rainfall excess and floods. • 148,530 people affected, including 16
• 2009: Niño. Losses and damages in deaths
second crop. • US$ 445.4 million, equivalent to 6% of
GDP, in damages
• 2010: Niña. Losses due to rainfall • Nicaragua requires US$ 1,963.1 million
excess. for rehabilitation, reconstruction and
• 2011: Tropical Depresion12E adaptation
13PETROCARIBE MECHANISM
Nicaragua has a guaranteed supply
BANK OF ALBA
(Venezuela)
100% of its oil needs, with 25
years deferred payment with two-
year grace period and 2% interest
than half of the oil bill.
CORRESPONDEN With half deferred funds invested
T BANK OF ALBA
(CARUNA R.L) 62% in socio-productive projects
that stimulate the economy and
allow the returns to amortize
payments in the form and time.
The other 38% is used to fund
social projects not returnable, fully
or partially.Cooperación Venezolana a Nicaragua
Cooperación Venezolana en el marco del ALBA-
TCP (millones de dólares)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Anual 184.9 461.0 443.0 533.0 609.3 765.6
Acumulado 184.9 645.9 1,088.9 1,621.9 2,231.2 2,996.8
Cooperación Venezolana en el marco del ALBA-TCP
(millones de dólares)
900
800 765.6
700
609.3
600
533.0
500 461.0 443.0
400
300
184.9
200
100
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fuente: BCNINVESTMENT PORTAFOLIO
US$ 10.9 BILLION IN 2012-2016
ELECTRONICS
MANUFACTURING MINING EXPLORATION
US$ 600 MILLION US$ 359.4 MILLION
TOURISM OIL EXPLORATION
US$ 555 MILLION US$ 353.6 MILLION
TELECOMUNICATIONS PORTS US$ 281 MILLION
US$ 2,018.3 MILLONES
AGROINDUSTRY
REFINERY “SUPREME US$ 334.3 MILLION
DREAM OF BOLÍVAR”
HIGHER ECONOMIC FREE ZONES
US$ 3,880.4 MILLION
GROWTH TO REDUCE
US$ 644.6 MILLION
EXPANSION AND POVERTY AND
TRANSFORMATION OF ERADICATE EXTREME OTHERS
THE ENERGY MATRIX POVERTY US$ 121 MILLION
US$ 1,742.0 MILLION
THE GRAND INTEROCEANIC CANAL OF NICARAGUA US$ 40 BILLION:
Wet and Dry Canal, Airport, Railway, Free Zones in the Caribbean and Pacific, and Pipeline 16INVESTMENT PORTAFOLIO
US$ 9.8 BILLION IN 2012-2016
ELECTRONICS
MANUFACTURING MINING EXPLORATION
US$ 600 MILLION US$ 359.4 MILLION
TOURISM OIL EXPLORATION
US$ 555 MILLION US$ 353.6 MILLION
TELECOMUNICATIONS PORTS US$ 281 MILLION
US$ 2,018.3 MILLON
AGROINDUSTRY
REFINERY “SUPREME US$ 334.3 MILLION
DREAM OF BOLÍVAR”
HIGHER ECONOMIC FREE ZONES
US$ 3,880.4 MILLION
GROWTH THAT
US$ 644.6 MILLION
EXPANSIÓN AND CONTRIBUTES TO
TRANSFORMATION OF ERADICATE EXTREME OTHERS
THE ENERGY MATRIX POVERTY US$ 121 MILLION
US$ $ 1,742.0 MILLION
THE GRAND INTEROCEANIC CANAL OF NICARAGUA US$ 40 MIL MILLONES:
Wet and dry Canal, Airport, Railway, Free Zones in the Caribbean and Pacific, and Pipeline 17SUPERCARGUEROS DOMINARÁN EL COMERCIO
MARÍTIMO MUNDIAL
Se proyecta que los buques post-
Panamax representarán el 30% del
tota de buques 2030; y 62% de la
capacidad total de TEUs de la flota de
portacontenedores en ese momento.
US Army Corps of Engineers, 2012
18BUQUES DE CONTENEDORES DEL TIPO
MAERSK TRIPLE E
• 400 metros de largo , 59 metros de ancho y 73 metros de altura
• Calado demasiado profundo para canal de Panamá y otros puertos en
América.
La principal limitación
de Panamá para una
ampliación mayor es la
falta de agua.
Ambas vías, Panamá y
Nicaragua serían
complementarias.
DISEÑO DE BUQUE MAERSK TRIPLE E
19INTEROCEANIC GRAND CANAL OF NICARAGUA: MAIN ECONOMIC IMPACTS
EXPECTED IN NICARAGUA
Nicaragua's Economic Growth with and without Canal FORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN NICARAGUA 2012-2018
16 Nicaragua (con Canal)
(Percentage Points) 15.1
5th year (2018) 1,927,527
14 Nicaragua 12.6 2,000,000
• More formal jobs than
12 10.8 10.7 1,800,000 casual ones. 1,608,402
+1,264,535
10 9.2 1,600,000 • 51.10% in 2018
• 20.79% in 2012 1,303,783
+945,410
8 1,400,000
5.0 5.4 5.2 1,200,000 1,018,581
6
+640,791
4.5 4.7 4.9
4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 848,630
3.6 1,000,000
4
+355,589
800,000 623,458 662,992
+185,638
2
600,000
0
400,000
-2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
+6.3 +10.4 +7.7 +6.7 +5.2 200,000
-2.2
-4 Source: PEF, IMF & Own estimates -
Begins 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
construction General Poverty in Nicaragua Extreme Poverty in Nicaragua
(Percentage points) (Percentage points)
The increase in revenue, would be a source of funding to 403.583 people out of
The multiplier effect
general poverty by
fight poverty. 2018
will further reduce
extreme poverty in
later years
2013 2018
2012 Estimated Projected
income US$ Income
16.46% of GDP 1,897.40 US$ 4,081.25 353.935 people
million million out of extreme
poverty by 2018
+115.10% more than 2013
We are working with ECLAC to estimate the effects of the Grand Interoceanic Canal on all sectors of the Nicaraguan economy, on
20
Central America and South America.COMPANIES CONTRACTED BY HKND
HKND
CHINA RAILWAY
CONSTRUCTION
CORPORATION
LIMITED (CRCC)
ENVIRONMENT BANK OF ALBA
MCKINSEY & AL RESOURCES
MULTILATERAL BANKS CO. MANAGEMENT
(ERM)
HKND
Eutelsat McLarty
OTHERS IN FUTURE, WHEN PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS
FEASIBILITY STUDIES ARE HARBOUR
COMPLETED KIRKLAND & GROUP
ELLIS LLP.
PRIVATE INVESTMENT
BANK
21MODEL BASED ON CHRISTIAN VALUES, SOCIALIST IDEALS AND SOLIDARITY PRACTICES
CAPACITY BUILDING
RECOVERING RESTORATION
VALUES KNOWLEDGE AND OF RIGHTS
OVERCOMING BUILDING
VICIOUS SKILLS FOR VIRTUOUS
TRAINING AND
CIRCLES DEVELOPMENT SCIENCE, CIRCLES
SKILLS
DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY AND AND INNOVATION
LANGUAGES
POVERTY AND
INEQUALITY
REDUCTION PROGRAMS,
CITIZEN POWER CAPITALIZATION
AND PUBLIC AND SUBSIDIES
PARTICIPATION
MACROECONOMIC
STABILITY AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH WAGE
GRAND ALLIANCE CONSENSUS; 1
WORKERS- DIGIT INFLATION;
PRODUCERS AND HIGH RESERVES,
ENTREPRENEURS FREE EXCHANGE
-GOVERNMENT AND DEBTS
REDUCTION
SOCIAL COHESION
AND DYNAMIC,
POSITIVE
JOB CREATION PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS
INVESTMENT CHALLENGE:
CHALLENGE: LOWER COST OF LIVING CLIMATE ENERGY INVESTMENTS WORLD
CLIMATE
CHANGE
PUBLIC SAFETY INFRAESTRUCTURE ECONOMY
PROTECTION OF MOTHER EARTH AND
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 22Good recovery in
2010 and economic
growth in 2011 and
2012
• Economic growth Nicaragua leading economic
above 5% in 2011 and growth in Centralamerica
2012
1 digit inflation High export growth: Investment record: More
+19% in 2012/2011 than 3 times that in 2006
Exports doubled between
2012 and 2006 23Fiscal stability
Increased work
High International Reserves: 2.4 times
the monetary base, allows free exchange
Sustainable fiscal deficit Constant reduction of
and currency stability national debt
Formal employment Fewer unemployment
More work: 48.2% more
growth: 52.8% more people
than in 2006
registered than in 2006 24SURVEY OF COST OF LIVING IN WORLD: MANAGUA,
NICARAGUA (POSITION 213) THE CITIES WITH THE
SECOND LOWEST COST OF LIVING
25THE BEST PUBLIC SAFETY IN CENTRAL AMERICA
8.8 (Global Rates-WHO)
26 (Latin American Rates – UNDP)
Homicide Rates in Central America
91.6
(per 100,000 inhabitants)
84.0
69.2 2011 2012
Nicaragua is the second safest country in Central
America and the third in Latin America (Indicators: 38.5
34.0
armed conflict, organized crime, kidnapping, etc.) 30.0
Fuente: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 2012 Security 18.0
15.4
Risk Report 12.6
11.0 10.0
8.9
Honduras Guatemala El Salvador Panamá Nicaragua Costa Rica
Vehicular theft in Central America Fuentes: UNODC; OEA; Policía Nacional
8,095
7,334
2010 2011
5,475 5,222
3,800
3,130 2,811
1,035
366 720 387 272 In 2012, vehicular theft
in Nicaragua continues
Guatemala Honduras Costa Rica El Salvador Panamá Nicaragua to low at 218 vehicles
26
(30% less than in 2011)THANK YOU
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