CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM - ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA'S NEW AFFLUENT CONSUMER CLASS - Oliver Wyman

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CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM - ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA'S NEW AFFLUENT CONSUMER CLASS - Oliver Wyman
CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM
ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA’S NEW AFFLUENT
CONSUMER CLASS

AUTHORS
Bernhard Kotanko, Partner
Jacques Penhirin, Partner
Cliff Sheng, Partner
Pedro Yip, Principal
Jasper Yip, Engagement Manager
CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM - ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA'S NEW AFFLUENT CONSUMER CLASS - Oliver Wyman
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Chinese mass affluent class is achieving          and dilemmas means that businesses
a new state of mind.                                  require a deeper understanding of
                                                      Chinese motivations to succeed in
Given China’s lucrative demographics,                 capturing opportunities.
the mass affluent class (individuals with
RMB 650,000 to 6 million investable                   To this end, we conducted a survey with
assets) will be the driving force in shaping          1,000 Chinese mass affluent consumers.
the Chinese consumer’s ‘New Normal’.                  This report shares our perspectives on the
A younger, more tech-savvy, and                       evolution and implications for businesses:
free-spending cohort than its Western
                                                      Chapter 1 highlights the shift in behaviours
counterparts, China’s mass affluent
                                                      towards wealth and lifestyle. Unlike ever
population is expected to more than double
                                                      before, the Chinese are growing comfortable
from 15 million in 2015 to 33 million in
                                                      with their finances and seeking to spend
2020. Wealth is accumulating rapidly with
                                                      more and invest more, rather than to
investable assets projected to increase from
                                                      harbour savings. Money is going towards
RMB 21 trillion in 2015 to RMB 45 trillion in
                                                      living better, not just having more.
2020. Personal consumption is expected to
experience double digit growth, eventually            Chapter 2 contrasts the optimism towards
accounting for over three-quarters of China’s         several dilemmas faced by the Chinese
total consumption by 2020.                            mass affluent class as they strive to
                                                      upgrade their quality of life. As Chinese
This paper aims to reveal the evolving                consumers reach for meaningful lifestyles
aspirations of the Chinese mass affluent              and experiences, the underlying foundation
class, and to contrast that with the                  of economic and social security is shaky.
limitations and dilemmas they faced.                  Discontent over cost of living is widespread
While pursuing higher values beyond                   and profound. Quality providers of wealth
material goods, they are still grappling with         management and basic welfare are still
basic needs. The paradox of aspirations               largely lagging.

                                 ASPIRATIONS                            DILEMMAS
 Savings                         It’s not just about savings            Rising incomes but perceived wealth
                                                                        is not necessarily increasing
                                 •• Savings is falling and more money
                                    is being allocated to investments   •• Insecurities about the future
                                    and consumption                        means savings is still a safe haven
                                                                           and unlikely to fall to western levels
 Investments                     Investor appetites are diversifying    Desire to broaden investing
                                                                        but untrusting of professional
                                 •• Investors are more rational
                                                                        money management
                                    and demand more balanced,
                                    diversified asset allocation        •• Without professional wealth
                                                                           management, wealth is mostly
                                                                           illiquid and consumption power is
                                                                           in deadlock
 Consumption                     Rise of the experiential consumer      Striving to ‘live well’ but still uneasy
                                                                        about basic welfare
                                 •• Consumers are seeking for
                                    meaningful experiences to           •• There is growing demand for
                                    elevate lifestyles                     upgraded options to social goods
                                                                           to improve well-being

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                       i
CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM - ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA'S NEW AFFLUENT CONSUMER CLASS - Oliver Wyman
Chapter 3 explains the opportunities      As the tastes of Chinese consumers and
under the new paradigms of the Chinese    investors mature, companies need to
consumer and investor. We summarise       be more creative and thoughtful in their
several new themes that shape the way     approach. Opportunities for businesses
forward for consumer businesses and       are abundant, but no longer ubiquitous.
wealth managers to succeed in a new era   Uncovering them requires closely following
of consuming and investing.               the changing desires of the new Chinese
                                          mass affluent class.

 THEMES FOR WEALTH MANAGERS               TACTICS TO DEPLOY
 Strengthen product supply                Enhanced product access and information,
                                          proprietary products
 Innovate with product design             Fund-of-funds, ETFs
 Sidestep trust issues                    Robo-advisory

 THEMES FOR CONSUMER BUSINESSES           TACTICS TO DEPLOY
 De-commoditise products                  Personalization, emotional marketing
 Align distribution strategy              Omnichannel integration, flagship stores, global
                                          Chinese strategy
 Shift to services                        Adjacent services, on-demand access

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                ii
CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM - ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA'S NEW AFFLUENT CONSUMER CLASS - Oliver Wyman
Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman   1
CHASING THE CHINESE DREAM - ASPIRATIONS AND DILEMMAS OF CHINA'S NEW AFFLUENT CONSUMER CLASS - Oliver Wyman
1. WHAT’S CHANGING: REACHING HIGHER

The evolution of China’s consumers                      However, with rising levels of affluence,
manifests itself in behaviours and attitudes            there is good indication that the Chinese
around wealth and lifestyle. Our research               mass affluent class is more assured about
shows that this new consumer class is                   the security of personal finances and
forging new patterns of saving, investing,              willing to look beyond savings. Despite
and consuming, to support a more                        the slowing growth of disposable income,
sophisticated and urbanized way of life.                they are optimistic about the future, with
                                                        58 percent of respondents perceiving that
                                                        disposable income would increase over
IT’S NOT JUST                                           the next 12 months. For those who can
ABOUT SAVINGS                                           afford it, the preference is overwhelming
                                                        to spend more rather than save more
China has long been seen as a savings-
                                                        (Exhibit 2). Our survey suggests that about
rich economy. The Chinese savings
                                                        two-thirds of incremental income would
rate, at 39 percent, is double that of
                                                        be funnelled into consumption, leaving
Singapore and almost 8 times that of the
                                                        a combined savings/investment ratio of
U.S. (Exhibit 1). Share of savings actually
                                                        about 30 percent which is materially lower
increased as household incomes rose. This
                                                        than the average Chinese savings rate of
phenomenon is not all surprising if savings
                                                        39 percent.
can be thought of as ‘purchasing peace of
mind for a what-if scenario’ – the more you
make, the more you can purchase.

Exhibit 1: Household saving ratio by country/city (% of household disposable income, 2015)1

        China                                                                                  39%

     Singapore                                            19%

       Taiwan                                           18%

South Korea                           7%

           US                    5%

           EU                 4%

         Japan      -1%

Source: OECD, Oxford Economics, Oliver Wyman analysis

1.    OECD, Oxford Economics, Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                         2
As financial needs evolve, they are also
saving in different ways. Investment                             Traditional savings is gradually shrinking to make
products are increasingly favoured over                          way for growing preferences towards more investing
traditional savings. Half of respondents                         and consumption.
have already increased allocation of income
towards financial products and/or Chinese
stocks, the top two categories, followed by
insurance top-up (Exhibit 3). Respondents
intend to allocate more incremental income
to investments than savings (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Allocation of additional income of RMB 10,000/month, 2016
% INCOME ALLOCATION                        % INCOME ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT

     10%         Savings (bank, cash)       Financial products/funds                                            7%
                                               Chinese stocks/shares                              4%
                                               Invest in own business                   2%
                                                    Housing in China                   2%
     20%         Investment                         Insurance top-up                 2%
                                                        Buying bonds                2%
                                                 Overseas investment           1%
                                                   Housing overseas 0%

                                           % INCOME ALLOCATION OF CONSUMPTION

                                               Holidays within China                                            14%
     67%         Consumption                       Holidays overseas                                    10%
                                                       Food and drink                                   10%
                                                       Personal items                             8%
                                                       Entertainment                         6%
                                                Children’s education                   4%
                                                     Household items                  4%
                                                     Cars or transport               4%
                                                Healthcare/medical                  4%
                                               Gifts to family/friends            3%
      3%         Others (e.g. debt)

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

Exhibit 3: Increase in investments across asset categories (% yes, 2016)

                     Financial products/funds                                                                   55%
              Invest in Chinese stocks/shares                                                                 52%
                  Housing (e.g. Larger house)                                                     38%
                              Insurance top-up                                           31%
Invest in your own business/friend’s business                                           31%
                                 Buying bonds                                    24%
        Overseas investment (Stocks/shares)                        13%
                          Housing in overseas                 9%

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                         3
INVESTOR APPETITES                                               also planning to do so more conservatively
ARE DIVERSIFYING                                                 (Exhibit 4). This preference is even stronger
                                                                 for those that are most confident about their
Investor mentalities are changing. The                           investing capabilities.
mindset of the past has been very short-
                                                                 The mass affluent class has dabbled across
sighted, and the Chinese tended to trade
                                                                 different investment vehicles and hold a
much more frequently than global peers,
                                                                 range of assets, with Chinese equities and
and some even viewed trading as a hobby.2
Having suffered vastly from stock market                         bank wealth management products still
volatility in recent years, investment                           being the most common (Exhibit 5). They
behaviour is tempering and there are                             are open to experimenting with financial
increasing doubts over the chase of                              innovations and have taken part in new
self-driven absolute returns, leading to                         Fintech vehicles such as online money
more appetite for balanced asset allocation                      market funds and peer-to-peer products.
and risk diversification. While our research                     Development of financial markets is seeing
shows that there is greater near-term                            new product options and investors are
preference to invest more, the Chinese are                       looking to rebalance portfolios.

Exhibit 4: Investment preferences in the next 12 months (% respondents, 2016)
                                                                                        Making more            Investing more   Increasing short-
                                                                                        investments            conservatively   term investment
        Increase                                   Make more
                 18%        31%         50%
    cash savings                                   investments
                                                                            Excellent              66%                 48%             42%

     Invest more                                   Invest more             Very good               61%              36%                43%
                     28%       34%        38%
    aggressively                                   conservatively
                                                                          Quite good            53%                 31%              34%
  Increase long-                                   Increase short-
                      33%       29%       38%                                 Neutral        38%                      41%             38%
term investment                                    term investment

                                                                              Self evaluation of
                         Neutral                                              investment knowledge

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

Exhibit 5: Penetration of different types of investment (% respondents, 2016)

                                    Bank savings                                                                     83%
             Bank wealth Management products                                                             64%
                         China stocks and shares                                                   58%
                                   Life insurance                                            51%
                   Bonds or fixed deposit savings                                   37%
                        Property that you lived in                                 37%
                       Gold/Silver commodities                                    35%
Mutual funds/other wealth management products                                     34%
              Investment in peer-to-peer lending                            27%
                    Property for investment only                          23%
                      Investments in businesses                     15%
                Overseas savings or investments             8%
                                           Others         4%

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

2. State Street Center of Applied Research Study

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                  4
Wealth management has emerged as a
professional service, but unlike mature                             Investment styles are becoming more rational and
markets the model is product-centric                                practical. Investors seek balanced asset allocation and
rather than advisory-centric. Online                                desire information, breadth of choice, product access, and
platforms are successfully catering to mass                         convenience at low costs.
affluent appetites by providing breadth of
product access across asset classes and
facilitating choices, while exploiting low-                         We observe tremendous potential in
cost distribution and efficient processing.                         categories associated with experiential
These platforms leverage big data to analyse                        events. New niches have sprung up and
investor preferences and risk appetites                             whole industries are evolving to ride the
to deploy targeted sales and marketing.                             trend. For example, the dining sector
For instance, Lufax and Ant Financial offer                         reached an income of RMB 2,910.5 billion
insurance, mutual funds, and quasi-fixed                            during the first ten months of 2016,
income products, and aspire to become                               representing a 10.9 percent year-on-year
“investing supermarkets”. The convenience                           increase and the first time with double-
of 24/7 access, fast transactions, and                              digit growth in 3 years4. Accelerated
diversified product selection available at low                      growth in dining is a phenomenon fuelled
product commissions fees are particularly                           by rising middle class and mass affluent
suited to investor preferences.                                     spending power, ironically while high-end
                                                                    restaurants have been troubled following
                                                                    the anti-corruption campaign. The dining
RISE OF THE
                                                                    industry is seeing emergence of more
EXPERIENTIAL CONSUMER                                               diversified restaurant options, demand for
Compared to many western societies,                                 ambiance and service personalization, and
the Chinese wallet is significantly more                            continued emphasis on food safety.
weighted towards spending on food and
clothing3. However, the last decades of                             The boom in travel and tourism is
rapid modernization have enabled Chinese                            another example of consumers seeking
consumers to achieve a degree of material                           meaningful experiences. Our recent
comfort, and now interests are shifting                             survey supports that Chinese travel
to higher needs for self-fulfillment. They                          growth will persist – amongst all
are becoming more fun-loving and less                               categories consumers are most willing to
infatuated with having more. Amongst                                spend additional income on travel, both
our respondents, about 60 percent of                                domestic and outbound (Exhibit 2). The
respondents have increased spending                                 Chinese are now more mobile than ever,
on entertainment (sports, cinema, etc.)                             with improved travel infrastructure, new
and domestic vacations, on par with food                            airport openings and development of
and personal items. Furthermore, about                              high speed rail, while coupled with rising
30 percent of additional income would be                            incomes. The destinations are highly
allocated to entertainment and holidays,                            varied, seeing growth across a range
exceeding the incremental spending on                               including ‘red tourism’, historic communist
personal and household goods.                                       sites, nature sites, and theme parks.

3. Euromonitor, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
4. National Bureau of Statistics of the Peoples Republic of China

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                    5
In our report “The Changing Face of the
Chinese Traveller”, we discussed that                       Consumers aren’t just buying more, they are buying
outbound travel is now more experience-                     differently as needs elevate. They are seeking to
driven than material-driven. While                          upgrade lifestyles and willing to spend more on
nearly all travellers would shop during                     meaningful experiences.
their trip, the predominant purpose for
travel is sightseeing, and recreation or
entertainment follows closely behind                        In our report “Mall or Nothing: Boom and
shopping as the third reason for travel.                    Bust”, we discuss the trend of new malls
                                                            dedicating more space for entertainment
Alongside the rapid growth of online                        and services over shopping, such as
channels, offline channels are positioned                   cinemas, dining, spas, hair salons,
to provide consumers with sought-after                      extended hours, etc. (Exhibit 6). Creating
physical experiences. The shift toward                      a one-stop destination and providing an
experiences in particular is demonstrated                   alluring experience gives consumers a
by the new model of Chinese shopping mall.                  reason to dwell in shopping malls.

Exhibit 6: Shopping mall tenant mix in select Shanghai malls (# brands, %)
              75                    127                   70                119
                   1%                                                             1%
                                          8%
                                                               14%
                   24%                                                            27%
                                          15%

                   28%                                         47%
                                          36%
                                                                                  39%

                                                                                           Grocery Retail

                                                                                           Service
                   47%
                                          41%                  39%
                                                                                  33%      Food & Beverage

                                                                                           Fashion/
                                                                                           Specialists Retail
          Laya Plaza            Fanhua Centre           96 Plaza         Thumb Plaza

                                                NEWER

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                    6
Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman   7
2. WHAT’S MISSING: CHALLENGINGS WITH
   MEETING THE DEMAND

Amidst the positive drive for higher spending   Furthermore, shifting demographics as an
and broader investing, certain tension points   aftermath of the 35-year one-child policy
exist. With rapidly rising wealth, the mass     means that the burden of family rearing
affluent class’s demands are becoming           is only growing. Currently there are 3.4
more sophisticated but socio-economic           working adults for every person aged over
developments have not always kept up to         60, but by 2030 the dependency ratio will
pace. We observe several dilemmas as they       decrease to 1.5. These factors have led
strive to upgrade their quality of life.        to a sense of financial insecurity which
                                                undermines their view of personal wealth.

RISING INCOMES, BUT
NOT PERCEIVED WEALTH                            Given the future uncertainty, many still view savings as a safe
                                                haven. While the savings rate is trending downwards, it is
Rapid economic development has brought
                                                unlikely to fall radically to match the western world.
about a dilemma, where despite rising
incomes many are uncertain about future
quality of life due to mounting expenses.       As a result, the level of income that
Though standard of living is increasing, the    defines wealth is a moving (and surging)
rate of improvement is tapering. According      target. Many people are unsure of how to
to our survey, expenditures have increased      qualify their own wealth status. In a 2015
across all categories, with food and drink      survey by Chinese Academy of Social
being ranked the highest and even more so       Sciences, only half of the respondents with
in Tier 1 cities.                               annual personal income of RMB 300,000
                                                consider themselves as middle class,
Urbanization is ushering people to higher
                                                though this income level already sits at the
tier cities and population density is
                                                99th percentile of the Chinese population
skyrocketing. The mass affluent class is
                                                and near the top end of our mass affluent
pressured by rising property prices and
                                                survey sample.
better housing is not always affordable.
Rising inflation and depreciation of the
currency also intensifies the situation.

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                 8
DESIRE TO BROADEN                                                professional advisory and unwilling to
INVESTING BUT                                                    pay for investment ideas and research,
                                                                 as fees are deemed high and not tied to
UNTRUSTING OF
                                                                 performance (Exhibit 8). Chinese investors
PROFESSIONAL                                                     are not ready for a fee-for-advice wealth
MONEY MANAGEMENT                                                 management model. A prior Oliver Wyman
Most of the money is self-managed. In fact,                      study revealed that advisory fees account for
the mass affluent class is fairly confident in                   less than 5 percent of total China wealth
their investing abilities. 62 percent of those                   management revenues, compared with
surveyed evaluated themselves as having                          about 30 percent in the United States. The
good or excellent investment knowledge                           wealth management industry is largely
(Exhibit 7). They are still sceptical about                      remained at a product selling oriented stage.

Exhibit 7: Self-evaluation on investment knowledge (% respondents, 2016)
                     2%                   1%

                                         10%

                                                                                62%
                                                            23%
       34%
                                                                                               evaluated with good
                                                                                or higher investment knowledge

                                                                                 Quite good           Very poor

                                                                                 Very good            Quite poor
                                   29%
                                                                                 Excellent            Neither good nor poor

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

Exhibit 8: Willingness to use professional investment support (% respondents, 2016)
                                                                                                                   Not pay           Use less
                                                                                              Making decision      for investment    sophisticated
    Use a professional                                   Make decision                        yourself             ideas/research    trading systems
                          28%      27%         45%
   investment advisor                                    yourself
                                                                                Excellent                54%                   46%            45%
          Pay for more                                   Not pay
           investment     29%       33%        37%       for investment        Very good               47%                33%               35%
       ideas/research                                    ideas/research
                                                                              Quite good              42%                     37%         29%
        Pay for better                                   Use less
    trading systems/        39%         28%     33%      sophisticated            Neutral              44%                    38%          33%
premium transactions                                     trading systems
                                                                                  Self evaluation of
                              Neutral                                             investment knowledge

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                       9
Volatility in domestic financial markets and                      invest globally. Our survey reveals that
currency depreciation has promoted interest                       59 percent of respondents are unwilling
in overseas investing for risk diversification.                   to invest overseas, primarily hindered by
Though the Chinese government has                                 lack of information and trusted advisors
introduced more controlled channels                               (Exhibit 10). Excess management fees and
in recent years (Exhibit 9), cross-border                         limited choice of distribution channels are
investment remains low. In part this is due                       the next concerns. Those investing overseas
to the uncertainties with the government’s                        are largely investors who view themselves as
wavering plans in liberating the capital                          highly competent; respondents that doubt
controls, while at core the Chinese are                           their capabilities tend to avoid cross-border
fundamentally unsure of how best to                               investing altogether.

Exhibit 9: Cross-border investment channels

            INVESTORS    •• Mainland retail and           •• Mainland retail and institutional investors         •• Mainland institutional investors who
                            institutional investors                                                                 satisfy the eligibility requirements
 MAINLAND

                                                                                                                 •• Mainland retail investors then
                  NEW (2015)                      NEW (2014)                                                        buy products issued by these
                                                                                                                    institutional investors

                              Mutual recognition
            CHANNELS                                                       Stock Connect                                              QDII
                           of publicly offered funds

            PRODUCTS     •• General equity funds,         •• Eligible stocks listed on the Main Board of         •• Depending on the categories of QDII
                            bond funds, mixed                the HK Stock Exchange                                  institutions, QDIIs may invest in
 OFFSHORE

                            funds, unlisted funds or                                                                −− Money market instruments
                            physical index-trading                                                                  −− Equity products
                            exchange traded funds
                            domiciled in Hong Kong                                                                  −− Mutual funds
                                                                                                                    −− Structured products
            QUOTA        •• Aggregate quota:              •• Aggregate quota: RMB 300 billion                    •• Each QDII is granted a specific quota
                            RMB 300 billion                  (US$ 48 billion)                                    •• No cap on the aggregate quota
                            (US$ 48 billion)              •• Daily quota: RMB 13 billion (US$ 2.08 billion)

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

Exhibit 10: Willingness to invest overseas (% respondents, 2016)

                                                               Lack of information flow                                       53%
                                                                                                                                             74%
                                                                        Lack of trusted                                 44%
            41%                                                   investment manager                                            57%
                                                             Excess management fees                                  39%
                                                                                                              29%
                                                                    Limited choices of                              37%
                                                                 distribution channels                  22%
                                                      Lack of diversity in product types                  26%
                                                                                                  14%
                                                          Biased recommendations by                        25%                                     Willingness to
            59%                                                   investment advisors             13%                                              invest overseas
                                   Yes                                                            13%
                                                                  Unsatisfactory return          11%
                                                                                           2%                                                      Unwilling to
                                   No                                      Don’t know       5%                                                     invest overseas
Willingness to invest overseas

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                                  10
Without uptake of professional investment
advisory, achieving strategic asset allocation                   With the lack of professional support in sourcing and placing
will be challenging for the mass affluent                        assets, wealth may well continue to be illiquid and the vast
class, whose financial sophistication is                         majority of consumption power may be stuck in deadlock.
generally still nascent. The situation is likely                 Product-centric offerings will gain better traction.
to be aggravated by the shortage of quality
financial assets available for investment in
the current market. Wealth structures are                        Academy of Social Sciences, 62.9 percent
already structurally imbalanced with heavy                       of the middle class felt that the level of
allocation towards illiquid, non-financial                       social welfare protection was too low and
assets. The China Household Finance Survey                       ineffective. The insufficient public safety
by the Southwestern University of Finance                        net is driving consumers to allocate money
and Economics suggests that the share of                         differently. These concerns extend to mass
allocation towards property investment                           affluent consumers. Our survey reveals that
is as high as 79.5 percent, whereas only                         future healthcare treatment is the top reason
10.8 percent are attributed to financial                         for setting money aside, and education
investments. The preference for property                         follows closely behind as the third reason
assets extends to overseas allocation. In                        (Exhibit 11).
the first 9 months of 2016, the accumulated
Chinese non-financial investment overseas   Concerns are about both affordable
was RMB 883 billion, representing           access and quality of service. Despite
53.7 percent year-on-year growth.5          the government pushing on healthcare
                                            spending, support to alleviate the financial
                                            burden is evidently inadequate. Patients
STRIVING TO ‘LIVE WELL’                     today have few financing options outside
BUT STILL UNEASY ABOUT their own pocket, as insurance and employee
BASIC WELFARE                               benefits are insufficient and subsidies
                                            or loans are not universally accessible.
While increasing spending towards affluent  Relative to mature markets, there is a clear
lifestyles, Chinese consumers are growing   discrepancy in resources allocated to
more acute with its demands around welfare. healthcare. China has 22 doctors for each
In a 2015 study conducted by the Chinese    10,000 in population, and only 30.6 percent

Exhibit 11: Reasons for investing (% respondents, 2016)

For the future health care treatment                                                                        49%
              Gain competitive edge                                                                   42%
                           Education                                                          38%
               New/bigger Housing                                                            37%
To save up for near-term purchases                                                          36%
                         Retirement                                                26%
                    No specific plans                 9%
            Wedding/wedding gifts                    8%
                              Others          4%

Source: Oliver Wyman Chinese consumer and investor survey 2016, Oliver Wyman analysis

5. Ministry of Commerce of People’s Republic of China press release (商务部召开例行新闻发布会), 18 October 2016

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                               11
of Chinese doctors have a Bachelor’s degree                  Similarly, those who can afford the expense
or higher – compared to 27 and 100 percent                   may look overseas for education. In 2015,
in the United States.6 Qualified doctors and                 over 500,000 students were studying
quality healthcare equipment is not only in                  abroad, representing a 13.9 percent increase
scarce supply but also highly concentrated in                from 2014, and this trend is accelerating.
the largest hospitals of the Tier 1 cities. There            It is an expensive option to study abroad
are vast capacity issues at the top hospitals                as over 90 percent of these students were
and waiting lists are extensive.                             self-funded.8 As wealth grows, sending
                                                             children overseas is becoming increasingly a
The scepticism towards the local quality                     viable option. Those who leave are now more
of care is fuelling a rising medical tourism                 inclined to come back – for every 10 overseas
market, which is growing at a faster rate                    students, 8 are returning after graduation in
than the tourism industry. A phenomenon                      2015 versus only 3 in 2006.9
that used to be seen amongst the Chinese
high-net-worth is now moving mainstream
amongst the mass affluent. Rising incomes
and growing information flow have enabled
the more affluent Chinese to consider                        The perception that the Chinese consumers will
overseas options for anything from wellness                  indiscriminately buy more goods is a myth. As they
services to medical care and treatment for                   search for ‘experience goods’ to elevate lifestyles, they
critical illnesses. The top 5 destinations,                  are at the same time seeking upgraded options to social
in order, are Japan, Korea, US, Taiwan,                      goods to improve well-being.
and Germany.7

6. Essence Securities research, 出境医疗风正起,新视野打开新格局
7. Ctrip
8. Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China
9. Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                            12
Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman   13
3. WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR BUSINESS

As Chinese mass affluent consumers                STRENGTHEN PRODUCT SUPPLY
embark on a new era of spending, it is
now the time to capture the opportunity.          Wealth managers will need a staged
For the first time in the last decade,            approach to evolve market demand towards
consumption momentum is accelerating              the investment advisory model of mature
but paralleled by cooling sentiments              markets (Exhibit 12). Unlike mature markets
around the economy. Selling today is              where there exists an abundant supply of
more challenging. Successful models               diversified products catering to various
are constantly being reinvented and new           levels of financial literacy and needs, China’s
opportunities are waiting to be unlocked.         investment products are less sophisticated
                                                  and more commoditised. Rather than
Promoting a spending economy involves             centering the offerings on advisory, Chinese
shifting the full Chinese wallet – releasing      wealth managers add value by providing
savings and balancing investments to free         access to unique products.
up liquidity and unleash spending power,
and developing consumer products and              Competitive advantage in the near term
services that fulfil maturing tastes. Alongside   will remain supply driven. Providing
policy changes to restructure the economy,        information to facilitate selection of
consumer businesses and wealth managers           vanilla products at low costs will be keys
can seize the opportunity to catalyse the full    to success. A next-stage catalyst will be for
potential of the Chinese consumer.                money managers to upgrade sourcing and
                                                  in-house product structuring capabilities.
                                                  This will enable customisation of investment
IMPLICATIONS FOR                                  products and develop proprietary assets as
WEALTH MANAGERS                                   an inimitable edge. Wealth managers can
                                                  further complement products with services
Wealth managers should consider                   to enhance the proposition, for example,
three themes to capture the emerging              providing tools for account administration
investing opportunity:                            and reporting.
•• Strengthen product supply
                                                  For example, Ant Financial started with
•• Innovate with product design
                                                  YuEBao, a money market product, to
•• Sidestep trust issues
                                                  provide users with interest on idle cash.
                                                  Later, it expanded offerings to include
                                                  mutual funds, insurance, ABS products
                                                  and more, which offered higher returns
                                                  to prevent loss of idle cash to other
                                                  channels. Top online wealth management
                                                  platforms are continually deepening their
                                                  understanding of customers and upgrading
                                                  capabilities to meet evolving demand.

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                       14
Exhibit 12: Stages of wealth management development in China

                                                                                               CHINA VM V3.0
                                                                                               Long-term: Similar
                                                                                               to mature markets
                                                                CHINA VM V2.0
                                                                Short to mid-term:
                                                                Future of China
                                  CHINA VM V1.0
                                  China Today

Investor                        • Seeks absolute return       • Wants diversification        • Seeks overall
characteristics                 • Believes their investment
                                                                (product types and origin)     portfolio/asset allocation
                                                                but lack knowledge
                                  ability is as good as                                      • Fully aware of
                                  professionals               • Still skeptical about          risk-return concepts
                                                                professional AMs

KSFs for FIs                    • Compete on scale:           • Provides access to           • Provides wide range of
                                  channel, # of RMs             − Information                  sophisticated products
                                • Manufacture high yield        − Vanilla product            • Truly customer-centric
                                  financial products          • Ensures low cost

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

INNOVATE WITH                                                  Another example is cross-border
PRODUCT DESIGN                                                 exchange-traded funds (ETFs), where the
                                                               funds can be structured to track a range of
An entry point to professionalising investing                  underlying offshore assets (bonds, stocks,
could be embedding the concept of strategic                    commodities, etc.) and deploy various
asset allocation into product design.                          investment strategies (hedging, leverage,
Fund-of-funds can be the launch pad for                        etc.). ETFs offer liquidity and transparency,
achieving asset allocation. These cater well                   while being cost effective. The Chinese ETF
to the mass affluent class’s overall passive                   market is still under-developed and under-
investment profile and can fulfil a range of                   penetrated, but our research suggests that
investment objectives at a small fraction                      interest is growing particularly with more
of traditional advisory fees. Fund-of -funds                   affluent households. Cross-border ETFs
are new concepts and highly anticipated                        can be executed through the QDII, Mutual
as hot products in 2017. More than 30 new                      Recognition of Fund schemes, as well as the
funds from Guangfa, China Universal Asset                      Stock Connects.
Management, Noah, and 18 other fund
management companies are being reviewed
in early 2017, and boast a rich product
selection, from diversified, to quantitative,
to retirement focused. Those that excel
at product development are likely to enjoy
first-mover advantage.

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                               15
SIDESTEP TRUST ISSUES                                        to more systematically and accurately
                                                             develop investor profiles and understand
Trust issues can be tackled through                          risk appetite. The model then creates
wealth management solutions that                             a match between the investors and
minimize reliance on individual advisors.                    products, based on a set of pre-developed
Robo-advisory offerings can provide                          but actively managed portfolios. Various
automated self-service tools for                             formats are emerging in China but yet to
investment research, portfolio                               reach tipping point with the mass affluent
construction and rebalancing, and                            class (Exhibit 13), with traditional financial
reporting. These are complemented with                       institutions such as Tianhong Fund and
light-touch advisory support via phone,                      Huatai Securities itching to venture
live chat, or email.                                         into the space.

A robo-advisor would help investors
build their portfolio according to a survey
of investment preferences. With more
data being captured, algorithms are able

Exhibit 13: List of major Chinese robo-advisory platforms

                                                     Product type
                   Global       China               Mutual   Govt    Comd./     U.S.      A-                  Minimum
Platform            ETF          ETF         QDII    fund    bond    Futures   shares   shares   Fee          inv. req.   Approach
Clipper                                                                                                                   Modern
                                                                                                 0.5%
Advisor                                                                                                       US$50 K     asset/portfolio
                                                                                                 of AuM
(蓝海智投)                                                                                                                    allocation theory
                                                                                                 0.5%
MiCai (弥财)                                                                                                    US$5 K      NA
                                                                                                 of AuM
Caigin
                                                                                                 0            US$500      NA
(财鲸)

                                                             Overseas investment                                          Modern
iToumi
                                                                                                 0            US$500      asset/portfolio
(宜信投米RA)                                                     – focused platforms                                          allocation theory
WQUANT                                                                                           Fee for                  3rd party providing
                                                                                                              0
(微量网)                                                                                            strategy                 trading strategy
ZiPeiYi
                                                                                                 NA           NA          NA
(资配易)
Innovane                                                                                         Member-
                                                                                                              0           Volatility pumping
(胜算在握)                                                                                           ship
                                                                                                                          Mean-variance,
JUAICAI                                                                                          20% of
                                                                                                              RMB 3 K     Black Litterman,
(聚爱财Plus)                                                                                        return
                                                                                                                          Risky Parity
Danjuan                                                                                          0.5%
                                                                                                              RMB 10 K    NA
(雪球蛋卷基金)                                                                                         of AuM

                                                                                                                               Product focus

Source: China Securities, Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                 16
IMPLICATIONS FOR                                  For example, Chanel marketers are
                                                  masterful at storytelling. In China, Chanel
CONSUMER BUSINESSES
                                                  has leveraged exhibition tours with special
We see three themes that would differentiate Chinese elements (“Culture Chanel” and
businesses in the new consumer era, and           subsequently “Little Black Jacket”), and its
accordingly a set of tactics to deploy:           movie “Coco before Chanel” to showcase the
                                                  legend of Coco Chanel and a tale of heritage.
•• De-commoditise and emotionalize
                                                  The story of Coco is inspirational – it is
      your proposition
                                                  about her view of the world and how she
•• Align distribution strategy
                                                  moved mountains to revolutionize the
•• Shift to services
                                                  fashion industry. Coco’s identity has an
                                                  elusive appeal with customers as it taps into
DE-COMMODITISE                                    dreams around strength, prestige, and a life
AND EMOTIONALIZE                                  philosophy. With a compelling narrative,
YOUR PROPOSITION                                  Coco’s legacy has created an emotional
                                                  connection with customers.
Brands need to craft propositions
that highlight experience building and
non-commodity offerings. Consumers                ALIGN DISTRIBUTION STRATEGY
are more interested in buying ‘personal
signifiers’ – items that ‘make others feel        In the increasingly dynamic and fragmented
good about me’. One tactic to deploy is           retail environment, selling ‘experience’ has
personalisation. An example of this would be profound implications for distribution models.
NIKEiD, which enables customers to create         Delivering an integrated omnichannel
their own Nike gear online by selecting shoe      experience requires broadening experience
colour, design and performance features. The building across the full customer journey,
enhanced customisation not only created a         all segments, and from physical to digital
tailored product, but also lifted Nike’s profit   touchpoints. We already see this from
margin by channelling customers directly          ecommerce retailers moving offline, including
to the online sales platform and eliminating      a prominent US$2.6 billion plan from Alibaba
the conventional retailer. With the aid of        to take department store chain Intime private.
technology, customisation can be executed         Online platforms are experimenting with
at low costs while leveraging existing product physical formats to remove friction points
lines to bring added experience.                  in the shopping journey by providing the
                                                  necessary tactile experience (e.g. product
Marketers should create memorable                 trial) and in-person engagement (e.g. personal
and magnetic experiences to entice the            touch). The winners are not simply treating
consumer. This will require a new focus on        brick-and-mortar as showrooms, but instead
creativity. ‘Sell dreams’, and not substance.     creating an end-to-end high-touch to virtual
It is not just about the product, but             brand experience while using sophisticated
interesting, imaginative experiential events      digital systems such as automatic check-out,
activated by the product that speak to the        dynamic pricing, and in-store data tracking
aspirational status (e.g. luxury) and desired     to enrich and embed online-offline analytic.
lifestyle (e.g. travel). ‘Sell empathy’ for goods Alibaba has also advanced a strategic
that speak to insecurities around personal        partnership with Bailian Group, which has
and family welfare.                               4,700 stores across 200 Chinese cities, to
                                                  enhance technology and analytic leveraging
                                                  the joint O2O platform.

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                      17
Despite growing uptake of online sales,          the best at offering the Chinese perspective.
shoppers can be brought back into                Finally, richer data and enhanced technology
brick-and-mortar, but store activation will      paves way for new ways to follow the trail of
require creativity. Stores need to facilitate    the travelling Chinese consumer. Analysis
imaginative experiences to make the trip         of transactional and digital footprint data
worthwhile. Flagship stores could be             can generate deeper insights for improved
positioned as experience centres for             customer targeting.
the brand. Burberry’s 3-storey flagship
in Shanghai’s Jing An district creates a
theatrical brand experience through              SHIFT TO SERVICES
multi-sensory digital technology, including      Players who traditionally think of
audiovisual experiences with 40 video            themselves as consumer package goods
screens and 130 speakers in-store, and use       (CPG) companies or retailers should
of radio-frequency identification on select      consider adjacent services that reinforce
clothing to trigger display of runway and        what they traditionally sell. Reinventing the
product videos on fitting room mirrors that      proposition can be a means to strengthen a
are screens when activated. More recently,       position in the current category or advance
the new Shanghai flagship store of DJI, a        a position into an entirely new market.
producer of drones, features a flight cage for   Anheuser-Busch InBev, a global leader in
drone demonstration, a gallery showcasing        beer brewing, is cultivating China’s demand
aerial images, and a projection screen to        for expensive craft beer. While planting
showcase the brand story.                        its craft brands in Chinese distribution
                                                 networks, it has also recently acquired a
As consumers shop more and more                  stake in Boxing Cat Brewery, a budding
overseas, brands need to follow their            craft brewer in China.
customers and develop a ‘Chinese
strategy’ and not just a ‘China strategy’.       The proposition can be transformed by
Our survey shows that brands are still lacking   selling on-demand access rather than the
the ability to provide a tailored shopping       product itself. Nothing can be more Chinese
experience for Chinese travellers. 47 percent    than buying a bike, but even this is becoming
of respondents are dissatisfied with the         a service rather than a product. With the
lack of willingness to speak Putonghua and       vast penetration of mobile, bike sharing
43 percent are unhappy about the level           applications such as Mobike have taken off.
of Putonghua fluency when shopping in            They enable the convenience of identifying
overseas retail stores. Aside from service       and accessing a nearby bike anywhere and
quality, business units need to be re-aligned    anytime, and the flexibility of drop-off at
to tailor the Chinese strategy for overseas      many parking spots right by destinations – all
retail – the overseas team is not likely to be   enabled by mobile GPS and mobile payment.

                                            * * *

In the end, there is real evidence that the Chinese mass affluent class will deliver to
the promise of a bigger spending economy. The new consumer class will behave much
differently from its western counterparts. Winners will be the ones that ride the tailwinds
of change and understand the deep motivations and desires of the Chinese consumer.

Copyright © 2017 Oliver Wyman                                                                     18
ABOUT OLIVER WYMAN
Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. With offices in 50+ cities across nearly 30 countries, Oliver Wyman
combines deep industry knowledge with specialised expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organisation
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operations and risk profile, and accelerate their organisational performance to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver Wyman
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