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Changing
Populations
November 2018 | Issue 3
Issue 8 July 2021
Covid-19 could cause Family patterns of Sandwich
historically low levels immigrants and generation feels the
of childbearing in the their descendants pressure during the
UK in the UK coronavirus pandemic
Contents
Welcome 3
Covid-19 could cause Family patterns of
historically low levels of immigrants and their
childbearing in the UK 4 descendants in the UK 6
Helping ONS improve Sandwich generation feels
population estimation 8 the pressure during the
coronavirus pandemic 9
CPC Director on ITV News New ABM course materials
coronavirus podcast 11 available 12
FemQuant 13 New projects and funding 14
CPC webinars 15 Researcher spotlight 16
PhD spotlight 19
www.cpc.ac.uk
Welcome Facts and Figures
January 2021 – June 2021
W
elcome to this edition of PRESENTED TOOK PART IN
17 17
Changing Populations. We
are now over a year into
the pandemic, and CPC research
continues apace to understand its PAPERS ONLINE EVENTS
effects.
The CPC Modelling strand members
have been working with ONS on HOSTED MENTIONED IN
13 290
new methods to overcome the
challenges of missing data resulting
from the coronavirus pandemic.
Find out how Professor Peter CPC WEBINARS NEWS AND
Smith and his team are innovating MEDIA OUTLETS
research methods on page 8.
34
On page 4, we explain Professor And finally, we meet some of the
Ann Berrington’s forecasts of the research team in our researcher
UK’s fertility in the context of the spotlight, with Professor Athina
pandemic, and what the projected Vlachantoni celebrated as part of
PUBLICATIONS
trends could mean for society as a the UN’s Women in Science Day,
whole. A popular topic in the media and Dr Joanne Ellison discussing
in recent months, declining birth her PhD journey, see page 16.
rates can be a cause for alarm for
many different reasons, from the
opportunities for young people to
fulfil their childbearing intentions, to
As always, I hope you enjoy finding
out more about our research
activities. If you have any questions
464,600
TWITTER IMPRESSIONS
being able to adequately support an or comments, please email
ageing population in the future. cpc@southampton.ac.uk
Indeed, research from our team
investigating societal ageing has
highlighted the pressures faced by
I wish you a good summer!
Professor Hill Kulu
3,366,521
WEBSITE HITS
the ‘sandwich generation’ during CPC Co-Director
the pandemic, and how many
people are providing informal care
for older loved ones as well as
supporting grown-up children or
caring for younger children, read
more on page 9. Upcoming events:
With my colleagues on the
MigrantLife project, I have been 6 July: Emerging Researchers in Ageing: BSG
examining how partnerships and pre-conference event
childbearing patterns change for 7 July: British Society of Gerontology Annual Conference
immigrants and their descendants For further details
in the UK. You can read about our about our events,
7 July: Social Policy Association Annual Conference
findings on page 6. please visit
7 July: 18th annual IMISCOE Conference www.cpc.ac.uk/
CPC members continue to provide activities/full_events_
16 July: CPC Webinar - Maarten Bijslma calendar
comment and speak about our
research across the media. 16 July: Webinar - The demography of COVID-19 and older To keep up-to-date with
Professor Jane Falkingham OBE, people in low and middle-income countries our latest news, events
CPC’s Director, has appeared and publications, visit
in news shows and podcasts in 23 July: CPC/CRA Webinar – Yazhen Yang www.cpc.ac.uk,
recent months, speaking about follow us on Twitter
demographic changes and CPC’s 6 September: CPC session on Statistical Demography at
the Royal Statistical Society Conference @CPCpopulation and
Covid-19 research. Facebook. For all the
6 September: FemQuant Conference - Beyond the binary latest CPC news and
We celebrated International comment, visit our
variable: Feminist quantitative analyses of gendered
Women’s Day in March, taking ‘Centre for Population
inequalities
a closer look at the careers of Change in the news’
Professors Jane Falkingham and 14 September: The British Society for Population Studies page on Scoop.it!
Jackie Wahba and how they have Conference www.scoop.it/topic/
contributed to the advancement of centre-for-population-
science in their respective fields. 5 December: International Union for the Scientific Study
change
of Population International Population Conference
02 03
Covid-19 could cause
historically low levels of
childbearing in the UK
Levels of childbearing in all the countries of the UK were declining even before
the pandemic. The impact of Covid-19 could mean a further fall in fertility rates to
historically low levels.
R
esearchers will not know the true impact of the The Office for National Statistics (ONS) provisional estimate
Covid-19 pandemic on fertility rates in the UK between of the total fertility rate (TFR) for England and Wales, based
2021 and 2023 until data become available. Using on the first three quarters of 2020, suggests that fertility
previous knowledge of how ‘economic shocks’ affect society, rates had fallen to historically unprecedented low levels even
the research team created ‘what if’ scenarios to test how the before the pandemic. The provisional TFR of 1.6 children
pandemic might affect the number of babies born in the UK, per woman for England and Wales is lower than that seen
and whether we will be facing a baby boom, or a baby bust. during the 1930s or 1970s. The researchers highlight that any
impact of Covid-19 on fertility rates must be viewed in this
Having considered four scenarios of how the Covid-19 already unusual context.
pandemic might affect individuals at different ages, three
out of four of the scenarios showed an expected fall in The research team put forward a number of mechanisms
the number of births over the next three years. If these through which the pandemic could affect childbearing,
scenarios play out, it will lead to significantly fewer births according to the age of the individual and the presence of
each year compared with the pre-pandemic period. children. For people under the age of thirty, most of the
mechanisms exert a depressing effect on childbearing.
The research team, led by Professor Ann Berrington, Some possible reasons include a lack of socialising because
examined fertility trends in the UK as part of the ESRC of lockdowns, and more economic uncertainties caused by
FertilityTrends project. They found that fertility rates are the fallout of the pandemic. Historical evidence on fertility
persistently lower in Scotland than in England and Wales, rates following the 2008 recession from other Northern and
and consistently higher in Northern Ireland but, in all Western European countries suggests that it is young people
countries of the UK, fertility rates have been declining for all who are most likely to see a decline in rates of childbearing.
age groups. This is true even among older women in their
late thirties and forties, among whom fertility had previously Among those who already have at least one child, and
risen due to more women at older ages having children after among older couples who are more stable in their housing
previously delaying their childbearing. and financial situations, there are a number of pandemic-
www.cpc.ac.uk
related issues that could result in them having fewer children.
These could include, for example, concerns about the Further reading
reduced support from health services or family and friends
during the pandemic. There are also ways the pandemic Recent trends in UK fertility and potential impacts of
might increase the likelihood of people having more children. the Covid-19 pandemic (CPC Working Paper 95)
For example, couples had more time to spend together
at home during lockdowns, or unemployment may have Covid ‘baby bust’ fears as fertility rate falls to record
provided people with an opportunity to step back from their low (The Telegraph)
careers to start a family or have another child.
Britain’s falling birthrate will damage our society – and
Professor Berrington comments: “Our examination of some it’s not just Covid to blame (The Guardian)
of the potential mechanisms through which the pandemic
could affect childbearing suggests that recent declines in Lockdown baby boom may be on the way as NHS
fertility rates could well be accelerated by the Covid-19 antenatal bookings rebound (The Guardian)
pandemic. The projected Total Fertility Rates from our four
scenarios provided a range of possibilities, however three out Generation childless: Has Covid caused a baby bust?
of four of the scenarios suggested fewer births.” (The Telegraph)
She continues: “The observed number of births could move The Guardian view on declining birthrates: there may
even further below the 2018-based ONS National Population be trouble ahead (The Guardian)
Projections (NPPs). These factors will need to be considered
by ONS when making the next set of NPPs, and by policy Child-free by choice (BBC Radio 4 PM)
making groups and service providers when planning post-
pandemic recovery.” The women who decided they don’t want children
during the pandemic (Refinery29)
She adds: “The differences we have seen across all four
scenarios, and the possible cumulative effects of the Covid-19
pandemic on childbearing rates in the UK, could have
significant implications for service provision across the UK.”
04 05
Family patterns of
immigrants and their
descendants in the UK
Dr Júlia Mikolai and Professor Hill Kulu have been studying the interrelationship
between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and their
descendants in the UK. They have found that family patterns have remained
relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts. Here we take a
closer look at some of the emerging research from the MigrantLife project.
I
n many European countries, the share of immigrants history approach, which allows for the joint analysis of
and their descendants has increased. In the UK, for repeated partnership and fertility transitions and the
example, the share of foreign-born individuals has incorporation of different ‘clocks’. No previous study has
grown from 8 per cent of the population in 2004 to 14 been done in this way.
per cent in 2019 (Office for National Statistics, 2019).
Demographic research on immigrant families in Europe The findings show that partnership and fertility behaviors
has also grown significantly over this period. Whether among European immigrants and their descendants are
immigrants exhibit partnership patterns similar to the similar to that of natives (defined as UK-born with two
native-born, and whether and how partnership patterns UK-born parents): many live together first and then have
differ across migrant generations, have become key children and/or marry. Those from South Asian countries
questions of this research. tend to marry first and then have children. Women from
the Caribbean region have the most varied partnership
Previously, studies have analysed partnership changes and fertility patterns: some have births outside unions,
and fertility separately, but in their recent study, Dr some form a union and have children afterwards.
Mikolai and Professor Kulu have used a multistate event-
www.cpc.ac.uk
Dr Mikolai comments: “Family patterns suggesting an increasing diversity of example. It is unclear whether these
have remained relatively stable across European societies. variances reflect cultural diversity or
migrant generations and birth cohorts. Our socioeconomic inequalities; and whether
findings highlight that families in the UK CPC Co-Director, Professor Hill Kulu, is the it is a temporary phase in the long-term
come in all shapes and sizes. Policymakers project’s lead: “Support from the European cultural and economic integration or rather
need to recognise this diversity and Research Council provides the opportunity a sign of persisting socio-ethnic segments
develop policies that will support the well- to answer one of the fundamental within British society.”
being of different families.” questions in migration research in
industrialised countries – whether the You can follow updates from the project on
This research forms part of the current differences observed between Twitter @MigrantLife_ERC
MigrantLife project which investigates immigrants and natives in employment,
how employment, housing and family housing and family patterns are short-
trajectories evolve and interact in the lives term outcomes in a long-term process
of immigrants and their descendants in of cultural and economic integration, or Further reading
the UK, France, Germany and Sweden. It rather reflections of different pathways
also examines how differences in societal and outcomes for immigrants and their The intersection of partnership and
context, early life and critical transitions descendants.” fertility trajectories of immigrants
shape life histories. The project aims to and their descendants in the United
show whether differences between and He continues: “The intra-group variation Kingdom: A multilevel multistate
within immigrant and minority groups in marriage patterns among the Caribbean event history approach (MigrantLife
vanish over time or rather persist, population in the UK provides a good Working Paper 3)
First comes marriage or first comes
carriage? Family trajectories for
immigrants in Germany (MigrantLife
Working Paper 4)
Family behavior of migrants: An
Family patterns have remained relatively stable across overview (MigrantLife Working
migrant generations and birth cohorts. Our findings Paper 2)
highlight that families in the UK come in all shapes and sizes.
Interaction between childbearing
Policymakers need to recognise this diversity and develop and partnership changes among
policies that will support the well-being of different families. immigrants and their descendants:
An application of multichannel
sequence analysis to longitudinal
data from France (MigrantLife
Working Paper 1)
06 07
Helping ONS improve
population estimation
CPC researchers have been informing the new methodology used by the Office for National
Statistics (ONS), by helping them to adapt to the challenges of measuring changes in the UK
population during the Covid-19 pandemic. Understanding how the population is changing is a
crucial part of the work of ONS. Their statistics inform decision-makers in the central and local
government, and provide the public with an overview of our population.
important insights on the size and age
structure of the UK using the latest
available data. These provided an initial
view of how the population was changing
in the year to mid-2020, which includes
the first part of the pandemic. Counter
to some external expectations that the
population fell, these estimates showed
the UK population grew – by around
0.5% – although this did mark one of the
smallest increases seen on record. In
the official population estimates released
on 25 June 2021, we estimated that the
UK population in the year to June 2020
was 67.1m, an increase of 0.4% over the
past year which is the slowest growth
since 2001. The effect of the pandemic on
mortality can largely explain the slowing of
the growth rate between 2019 and 2020.”
The latest official ONS population
M
embers of CPC’s Modelling flows based on administrative data. These estimates for mid-year 2020, providing
strand, including Professors Peter estimates will ultimately feed into official more detailed statistics on the size and
W F Smith and Jakub Bijak, Dr UK population estimates, and will help structure of the population by age, sex and
Erengul Dodd and Dr Jason Hilton, have transform migration statistics based on local area, are now available on the ONS
been meeting with ONS to advise on administrative data in the future. website.
measuring uncertainty in population and
migration estimates, and on assessing Professors Smith and Bijak and Drs Dodd
the impact of shocks, for example the and Hilton, along with CPC associate,
Covid-19 pandemic, on mortality forecasts. Professor Jon Forster, also worked with Further reading
The study team have also met with the the ONS to develop state-space models to
ONS and Public Health England (PHE) to estimate UK international migration and to Meeting the challenges in
discuss their work using the ONS weekly make innovative use of the available data population estimation (National
mortality statistics to estimate excess sources and methods. The methods and Statistical, ONS blog)
mortality due to Covid-19. They have been findings were published in the ONS report
comparing current PHE methods with a ‘Using statistical modelling to estimate Population estimates for the UK,
novel, dedicated method of estimation UK international migration’, with the England and Wales, Scotland and
developed at the CPC. provisional modelled estimates suggesting Northern Ireland: mid-2020 (ONS
that the total net migration was negative Population Estimates)
Alongside this, the CPC team have been from April to June 2020, with more people
working on methodology to estimate leaving the UK than arriving. Still, the How many people live in the UK?
migration without an International findings also emphasised large uncertainty (National Statistical, ONS blog)
Passenger Survey (IPS). The IPS collects around these numbers and trends, since
information about passengers entering it is not possible to accurately quantify Using statistical modelling to
and leaving the UK, and has been international migration during that estimate UK international migration
running continuously since 1961, but unprecedented period. (ONS Working Paper)
was suspended between March 2020
and January 2021 due to the coronavirus Richard Pereira, Head of the ONS Centre Early indicators of UK population
pandemic. The CPC study team have been for Ageing and Demography, commented: size and age structure: 2020 (ONS
investigating short-, mid- and long-term “In April, we published early indicators Population Estimates)
solutions to estimating UK migration of the UK population, which provided
www.cpc.ac.uk
Sandwich generation feels
the pressure during the
coronavirus pandemic
The sandwich generation – those supporting both children and parents – are facing heightened
emotional and financial pressures during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to CPC and Centre
for Research on Ageing researchers.
A
s our population ages, it is to experience increased stress and and more specifically the ‘sandwich
increasingly common for people, family conflict than those whose living generation’, finding that, even before
particularly in mid-life, to be arrangements have not changed. In their Covid-19 they faced emotional and
supporting older children, while also previous international research, they also financial pressures, and diminishing social
providing informal care for family or found that in China, “the state remains interactions. This has been made worse
friends. These dual-carers often provide predominantly dependent on the family for by the pandemic, with the Carers Trust
informal care for others as well as the delivery of care for older people and stating that “coronavirus has significantly
carrying out paid employment. The infants”, with Chinese mid-life individuals exacerbated burnout among unpaid
Covid-19 pandemic has intensified the aged 45–64 potentially being ‘sandwiched’ carers.”
responsibilities of these individuals, and between providing care to older
brought new challenges for those ‘in the parents/parents-in-law and/or younger An April 2020 Carers UK survey into the
middle’. grandchildren. We are now seeing this experiences of over 5,000 current and
trend in other countries across the world. former unpaid carers found that “the
Research by Professors Maria Evandrou, coronavirus crisis is having a profound
Jane Falkingham, Athina Vlachantoni and Around 7 million (or one in ten) people in impact on carers’ lives. Many of those who
Dr Min Qin found that people whose living the UK are informal carers, according to responded were providing very high levels
arrangements have changed because of the Carers Trust. CPC has been carrying of care, or juggling care in complex lives.”
the Covid-19 pandemic are more likely out research into the pressures on carers A follow-up report in October 2020 found
08 09
that 4 in 5 unpaid carers were providing
more care than before the pandemic,
with more than half of carers seeing their
physical health impacted by caring through
the pandemic, and 64 per cent saying their
mental health has worsened.
With this upsurge in pressure on carers,
CPC researchers are working to unpick
the impact of coronavirus. One area
they are investigating is how living
arrangements have changed due to
pandemic lockdowns. Where people were
only providing occasional care and support
before the pandemic, they may have been
unexpectedly placed in a situation where
they are living, albeit temporarily, with
those they care for. Or it may be more
difficult to provide care due to lockdown
restrictions and having to live apart with
very little contact to protect those who are
vulnerable and shielding.
Further reading
Why the ‘sandwich generation’ is so
Younger people were more likely than older people to have stressed out (BBC Worklife)
changed their living arrangements – this has usually meant
moving back in with their parents. These households were Changing living arrangements and
family conflict in lockdown (CPC
more likely to report higher levels of stress. Policy Briefing 58)
Social participation and health
outcomes among carers in Great
Britain (CPC Policy Briefing 47)
Informal caring in mid-life and its
The findings show that younger people respite services outside the home could economic consequences (CPC
were more likely than older people to add further challenges for carers. Among Policy Briefing 46)
have changed their living arrangements carers, time, energy and finances are the
– this has usually meant moving back main barriers to social participation. A 2019 Who cares? Continuity and change
in with their parents. These households survey by Carers UK found 72% of carers in the prevalence of caring, and
were more likely to report higher levels reported mental health problems and 61% characteristics of informal carers, in
of stress. This in turn has important said they had physical health problems as England and Wales 2001- 2011 (CPC
implications for public health and wider a result of caring. However, further CPC Working Paper 68)
policy as prolonged periods of stress can research has found that social participation
lead to serious health problems. can potentially alleviate the adverse Changing living arrangements,
effects of care provision. family dynamics and stress during
There is also a gendered aspect to the lockdown: evidence from four birth
caring responsibilities faced by many in While Covid-19 may have narrowed the cohorts in the UK (SocArXiv)
mid-life. People in mid-life who have caring options for carers to socialise, a positive
responsibilities are more likely to reduce outcome is that the pandemic has begun Time for care: exploring time use
the amount of paid work they do so that to normalise flexible working. This could by carers of older people (Ageing &
they can provide care if they are female, increase understanding of the pressures Society)
single, are in lower paid employment, have carers are under from employers, families
poor health themselves and have frequent and friends. “I’ve always found that Caught in the middle in mid-life:
contact with their parents. “In general, we effective policy tools are the ones that provision of care across multiple
know women are more likely to provide give individuals real choice,” reflects generations (Ageing & Society)
more intensive personal care to older Professor Vlachantoni. “Looking to the
relatives than men, with men providing future, my hope is that employers and Intergenerational flows of support
support for practical tasks including the government will recognise the often between parents and adult children
finance and gardening,” explains Professor ‘hidden’ life outside of the workplace, in Britain (Ageing & Society)
Vlachantoni. where many people are juggling multiple
caring responsibilities, and create policies Caring behind closed doors:
The isolation caused by lockdown and working conditions which support Forgotten families in the coronavirus
restrictions may also be disproportionately individuals in their roles, and ultimately outbreak (Carers UK)
impacting carers. Not being in a position support our ageing society as a whole.”
to socialise or access local support or Caring Behind Closed Doors: six
months on (Carers UK)
www.cpc.ac.ukCPC Director on ITV News
coronavirus podcast
Last year, we reported on a CPC study that found the Covid-19 pandemic has caused sleeping
difficulties for women with young children, key workers and people of Black, Asian and
minority ethnic heritage. The study, initially carried out in 2020 during the first four months of
the pandemic, has since been widely reported and cited across news articles, stemming from
its coverage in The Guardian in July 2020 in the article ‘Coronavirus lockdown caused sharp
increase of insomnia in UK’. The project’s lead, CPC Director, Professor Jane Falkingham OBE,
appeared on the ITV News podcast ‘Coronavirus: What you need to know’ in February 2021
to discuss the research further with presenter, Lucrezia Millarini, and James Wilson – aka The
Sleep Geek - a sleep behaviour and environment expert.
C
onducted by Professor Falkingham The study team have been examining
and a team from CPC and the further waves of the Understanding Further reading
Centre for Research on Ageing, Society COVID-19 survey to understand
the analysis used survey data from the the continuing effects of the pandemic Who’s been losing sleep during
Understanding Society COVID-19 Study on sleeplessness and plan to update their lockdown? (CPC Policy Briefing 55)
collected between April and July 2020. findings in the coming months.
It was then compared with survey data Sleepless in Lockdown: unpacking
collected in 2018/19. The first lockdown led You can listen to the recording wherever differences in sleep loss during the
to a rise in the number of people suffering you get your podcasts, including Apple coronavirus pandemic in the UK
sleeping problems from one in six (15.7%) Podcasts and Spotify - or listen using the (medRxiv)
of the sample to one in four (24.7%). ITV News web player.
The study revealed that sleep loss is ‘Sleepless in Lockdown’: unpacking
affecting more people during the Covid-19 differences in sleep loss during the
pandemic, reflecting rising stress levels coronavirus pandemic in the UK (The
due to anxieties about health, financial Lancet SSRN)
consequences, changes in social life and
daily routine, all of which may affect sleep. Coronavirus lockdown caused sharp
Sleep deprivation can have knock-on increase of insomnia in UK (The
effects for physical and mental health. Guardian)
As Professor Falkingham says in the COVID-19: mental health and
podcast: “It’s the combination of factors, wellbeing surveillance report’ (Public
so if you’re a woman, from a black or Health England)
minority ethnic group and with small
children, you are three times more likely to Coronavirus (COVID-19): impact on
suffer sleep loss.” children, young people and families -
evidence summary September 2020’
Speaking about potential causes of anxiety (Scottish Government)
and stress leading to sleep loss, Professor
Falkingham commented: “As we moved
into the summer, those differentials
[around anxiety about getting ill or dying
from Covid-19] seemed to narrow a bit,
and actually it was the combination of
home schooling and home working that
really seemed to kick in. It was actually
very stressful to be doing all of those
things. For many women in particular, if
they were caring for children during the
day, and then they’re doing their work,
they’ve displaced their activities. So
they’re actually starting to creep into doing
activities late at night.”
10 11New ABM course
materials available
Materials for our virtual short course - ‘Agent-based modelling for social science research’ - are
now available on the NCRM website. Last year, CPC researchers worked with colleagues at the
Universities of Southampton and Rostock to deliver our first virtual training course, aiming to
familiarise participants with the most recent advances in building, analysing and documenting
agent-based models of social processes. In collaboration with the National Centre for Research
Methods (NCRM), we recently made the videos available online to all for free.
T
he content includes videos,
presentations and supporting
materials, such as slides, transcripts
and reading lists. The course is aimed
particularly at PhD level students and
early career researchers, with some prior
experience with coding and interest in
computational modelling in social science.
During the course, participants will
cover aspects related to the choice of
modelling language and environment,
tailoring models for specific research
purposes, statistical analysis of model
results and key principles of experimental
design, inclusion of realistic cognitive
assumptions in models, and documenting
the modelling endeavours by using a
variety of approaches.
In Block 1, Jakub Bijak, Martin Hinsch and
Andre Grow introduce Modelling, Agent-
Based Modelling (ABM) and the Treatment
of Time in ABM. In Block 2, Sarah Nurse,
Jakub Bijak, Jason Hilton and Toby
Prike cover Data Quality Assessment,
Model Analysis UQ and Psychological
Experiments. In the final Block, Andre
Grow and Adeline Uhrmacher explore
Documentation of Agent-Based Models
and Provenance for Simulation Studies.
The course was organised as a part of
the research project Bayesian Agent-
Based Population Studies, funded by
the European Research Council (ERC)
under the European Union’s Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme (grant
agreement 725232).
Course materials
Agent-based modelling for social
research (NCRM website)
Keynote lecture on ABM with Alexia
Fürnkranz-Prskawetz (Youtube)
www.cpc.ac.ukFemQuant:
Bringing together
feminist research
and quantitative
methods
CPC researcher Dr Heini Väisänen is one of the coordinators of
FemQuant, a network of researchers across the social sciences,
along with the co-founders Dr Rose Cook and Dr Jenny Chanfreau,
as well as Dr Sara Rose Taylor and Ms Youngcho Lee.
like to problematise how much of current
quantitative research tends to operationalise
‘gender’ as a binary variable with male and
female representing fixed and oppositional
classification. Please visit the FemQuant
website for registration details.
Dr Väisänen is well placed to act as coordinator
of the network; her research focuses on
sexual and reproductive health and rights in
different parts of the world. She is affiliated
with the fertility and family strand of CPC. She
works as a researcher at the Institut National
d’Etudes Démographiques (INED, France),
and as a part-time Lecturer in Social Statistics
and Demography within the Faculty of Social
T
he goal of the FemQuant network is to Sciences at the University of Southampton.
explore the ways in which researchers One of her research projects focuses on the
are using feminist theory and link between health literacy and safe use
motivations in current quantitative, empirical of misoprostol for abortion in Nigeria. The
research across the social sciences, including study explores whether health literacy was
sociology, economics, demography, social associated with being able to use misoprostol
policy, psychology, health, and international to end a pregnancy safely and successfully
relations. The network is a collaborative and in Lagos state, Nigeria, where abortions are
supportive space where the difficulties, legally only allowed to save a woman’s life.
tensions and complexities inherent in The findings were recently published in the
combining feminism and quantitative methods journal ‘Studies in Family Planning’ and on the
can be explored and debated. FemQuant blog.
The network produces blogs, reading lists, In June, she was awarded the BSPS Early
and hosts events including a monthly webinar Career award 2021 and will give a plenary as
series. They welcome blog post submissions the winner at the upcoming BSPS conference
on feminist or gender-related research using in September.
quantitative research methods. They are also
hosting a one-day virtual conference (via Zoom)
on 6 September 2021, inviting researchers
Register for FemQuant events through
to discuss and debate the possibilities of
the Eventbrite page or keep in touch by
a feminist quantitative social science, and
joining the FemQuant mailing list and
to learn from each other’s successes and
following their account on Twitter and
difficulties in integrating feminist theory with
the hashtag: #FemQuantSeminar.
quantitative methods. In particular, they would
12 13New projects
and funding
Professor Brienna Perelli- Infrastructure supported by the European families, maintaining partnerships, and
Commission. Over the past 20 years, making decisions about childbearing.”
Harris, Dr Olga Maslovskaya the GGP has collected survey data in 25
and Professor Ann countries in Europe and beyond. She continues: “The UK GGS will fill a gap
Berrington at the University The GGP has recently launched a new in internationally comparable information
of Southampton have round of surveys, called GGS2020, to about early adulthood and mid-life (ages
been successful in gaining understand how families have been 18-59), which will complement and
ESRC funding for a new changing over the past two decades. The supplement existing UK data sources.
survey has the flexibility to implement Current data sources do not capture the
project which aims to better UK-specific questions, for example complexity of family events, or miss those
understand how young and attitudes towards Brexit. The UK GGS data born throughout the late 1970s, 80s, and
mid-life adults in the UK are collection will also be a unique resource 90s who have been experiencing the
transitioning to adulthood, for understanding how people are coping most intense employment and family
forming partnerships and with the fall-out from the virus, as well as changes, or underrepresent lone mothers,
families, and coping with the longer-term impact on demographic separating, and blended families. The UK
behaviour. therefore lacks a comprehensive source
recent economic, social, and of data to examine families in the new
political uncertainty. Professor Perelli-Harris comments: “Family millennium; our new project will address
life in the UK has been rapidly changing these shortfalls and enable us to examine
To achieve this, the study team will collect over the past decades. At the same time, emerging social challenges.”
high quality data using the UK Generations economic and political uncertainty has
and Gender Survey (GGS), part of a global increased, impacting employment stability Besides data collection, the project will
data collection infrastructure focused on and social mobility. The recent Covid-19 include a methodological work package
population and family dynamics. epidemic has placed an unprecedented to provide insights into the accuracy of
strain on families, by limiting economic online data collection, allowing for design
This project proposes to collect the UK resources, reorganising how families and implementation improvements. There
version of the nationally representative, care for their children, and temporarily will also be a demographic work package
longitudinal GGS, which has never before halting social life. Young adults have been focussing on reproductive intentions,
been conducted in the UK, omitting the particularly hard hit, with a higher percent fertility treatments, miscarriages, and
UK from many cross-national comparisons. facing unemployment, difficulties with abortions throughout Covid-19, shedding
The GGS is one of the main outputs of housing, and economic precarity. These light on whether the UK will experience a
the Generations and Gender Programme new conditions raise questions about how baby boom or bust.
(GGP), an international Research young and middle-aged adults are forming
Professor Alison Bowes at Professor Bowes said, “Older people are their real-world feasibility. DesHCA has a
integral to DesHCA and their health is at unique opportunity to feed directly into the
the University of Stirling its heart. We know that people’s homes UK and Scottish Government City Region
is leading a new project can make the experience of cognitive Deal for Central Scotland (Stirling and
called ‘Designing homes for changes more difficult, or can enable Clackmannanshire), providing groundwork
healthy cognitive ageing continuing inclusion and a sense of self- for local housing developments. The focus
(DesHCA)’. The aim of the worth and self-esteem. of this is sustainable, lifetime health,
project is to identify scalable community and economic development,
“This project brings together a which addresses deprivation and
and sustainable design multidisciplinary team involving inequality.
improvements to homes stakeholders from all areas of housing
which provide support for provision, including people experiencing Professor Bowes added, “DesHCA’s aim
healthy cognitive ageing, ageing and cognitive change, architects is to identify home design improvements
enabling us, as we age, and designers, housing experts, planners, which enable people to continue living
to continue living in our builders and housing providers, to identify in their preferred environments through
housing innovations that can support living changes such as significant cognitive
preferred environments as better for longer with cognitive change.” impairment and dementia diagnoses.
we experience cognitive
change. The project will design and build virtual “In the longer term, the project will guide
and real living spaces that will act improvements to existing housing and
DesHCA is funded by the UKRI Industrial as demonstrators and test-beds for provide tools for future developers to
Strategy Challenge Fund under the Healthy innovations to support healthy cognitive inform their decisions about housing, with
Ageing Social, Behavioural and Design ageing. These designs will be evaluated a view to meeting the needs of the world’s
Research Programme. from stakeholder points of view, then ageing population.”
considered at a larger scale to examine
www.cpc.ac.ukCPC webinars
The 2020/21 CPC webinar series got off to a flying start, with many embracing
the new online format and all webinars being well-attended.
Since the start of the new semester in
October 2020, we have hosted 18 CPC
webinars from our sites in Southampton
and Scotland. We have welcomed
speakers from across the globe, and
we have been able to welcome more
attendees than before with travel no
longer a barrier to attendance. Most of
the webinars are now available to watch
again on our YouTube channel, so do take
a look if you missed out or would like to
see the presentations again.
Webinars
Carl Schmertmann, Florida State
University
Estimating total fertility from the shape Ben Wilson, Stockholm University and Monica Alexander, University of Toronto
of the age pyramid: Bayesian models and London School of Economics A Bayesian cohort component projection
applications Understanding the lives of immigrants model to estimate adult populations at the
and their descendants: From selection to subnational level
Matthias Studer, University of Geneva adaptation
The link between previous life trajectories Rory Coulter, UCL
and a later life outcome: A feature Tom Alexis and Cecilia Macintyre, A new look at the geography of housing
selection approach Scottish Government careers in Great Britain
Developing linkage ready data on Looked
Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Vienna After Children for a new data linkage Sylwia Åukasik, Adam Mickiewicz
Institute of Demography infrastructure in Scotland University, and Jakub Bijak, University
An agent-based modelling approach of Southampton
to account for social interactions in Dominique Green, University of St Paleodemography of Black Sea Scythians
demography. This keynote seminar formed Andrews
part of the short course on Agent-based Reconsidered disadvantage in the United Jamie Pearce, University of Edinburgh
modelling for social research which ran in States: An intersectional analysis
the autumn semester. Lifecourse of Place: how environments
This was a CPC Athena Swan webinar
throughout life can support healthy ageing
held jointly with FemQuant.
Alice Reid, University of Cambridge
Peter Eibich, Max Planck Institute for
Britain’s first demographic transition: an Michaela Benzeval, University of Essex
Demographic Research
integrated geography Understanding Society COVID-19 Study
Does retirement affect voluntary work
provision?
Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for
University Demographic Research and University
Utilizing population register data to of Washington
understand socioeconomic determinants Studying health and migration using
of COVID-19 mortality: The case of Our upcoming webinars are listed
social media: Tools for survey participant on our events calendar, and you can
Sweden recruitment complement digital trace data follow us on Twitter and Facebook
for the latest updates. And if you are
Yoann Doignon, UCLouvain, Centre for Cecilia Vindrola, UCL unable to attend the live sessions,
Demographic Research do subscribe to our YouTube channel
Carrying out rapid qualitative research
The spatial diffusion of nonmarital during a pandemic: Emerging lessons to be alerted when our new videos
childbearing in Belgium (1968-2017) from COVID-19 become available.
14 15Researcher spotlight
CPC member Athina For others, the worry and uncertainty impact of our research work on society.
Vlachantoni celebrated for coupled with new caring responsibilities or This was one of the top three highlights
living arrangements have caused stress, of my career so far. Belonging to a team
UN’s Women in Science Day leading to lack of sleep and possible also helps when we are not successful,
long-term physical and mental health because we can reflect on what we can
implications. improve together, and come back stronger,
whether it is an article or grant rejection.
Professor Vlachantoni has been at the And I love working with students – literally
forefront of many of these new studies every single time I teach, I am learning
as a member of CPC and the Centre for something new.
Research on Ageing at the University of
Southampton. As we have seen earlier in What is it like being a woman in science
this edition, her research examines the – and what has changed since you
roles of those in the ‘sandwich generation’ started?
- those supporting both children and I am a woman in social science, which I
parents – as well as unpaid carers and how think is quite different from being a woman
we can support people through longer in the natural sciences. I have been part
lives and the intergenerational exchanges of all-women teams, and part of teams
that are happening as a result. Below we where I was the only woman. I genuinely
find out more about her career and what it think that individuals’ personalities and
means to be a woman in science. ways of working are more important than
their gender.
Welcome Athina, can you please explain
your role? I think probably the only difference, and it’s
CPC member, Professor Athina I am Professor of Gerontology and Social a big one, is that I have seen more women
Vlachantoni, is a Professor of Gerontology Policy at the University of Southampton. openly juggling their work with caring
and Social Policy at the University of Gerontology is the study of ageing over responsibilities, and being more vocal
Southampton. In February, she was the life course, and social policy is about about their rights and challenges. Men do
interviewed by the Southampton Daily individuals’ and families’ needs in society a lot of caring too, but they are less vocal
Echo as part of the celebrations for the and how the welfare state can address about it, and I think that’s something that
United Nations’ (UN) International Day of them. My day-to-day work is a combination has been changing since I started.
Women and Girls in Science. of teaching, research and administration. I
teach postgraduate students and supervise I also think that social sciences are far less
Set up by the UN in 2015, 11 February PhD students. hierarchical than when I started, there is
marks the annual celebration of the critical more space for established views to be
role women and girls play in science and I work alone and with colleagues to challenged, and that’s a good thing.
technology. The day also recognises that examine key research questions in several
women and girls continue to be excluded areas related to areas like informal care What advice would you give to any
from participating fully in science, with provision, health inequalities, pension young girl or woman looking to get into
women making up less than 30 per cent protection among minority ethnic groups, the field?
of researchers worldwide. According to intergenerational support and social care. My key piece of advice would be to speak
UNESCO data (2014 - 2016), only around to people who are one step ahead in their
30 per cent of all female students select And I have a number of senior career (as opposed to a decade ahead), in
STEM-related fields (science, technology, administrative roles, for example I order to get different views about what is
engineering and mathematics) in higher am Director of Programmes for the needed for that next step.
education. The aim of marking this day is Department of Gerontology, and also
to help achieve full and equal access to Director of a partnership between What are the costs and what are the
and participation in science for women and Southampton, Brighton and Portsmouth benefits? This is especially important at key
girls, and further realise gender equality Universities, which awards MSc and PhD points of the life course when one’s career
and the empowerment of women and scholarships every year. has to be juggled alongside other things,
girls. like investing in a relationship, trying for
What do you love most about the work a family or caring for different people in
This year’s theme for Women in Science you do? one’s family.
Day was Women Scientists at the forefront There are two bits of my work that I
of the fight against Covid-19. Many of really like, and both of them have to do
our CPC researchers have changed their with working with other people. I love
research focus since the start of the This interview is an excerpt from an
working with colleagues, for example in
coronavirus pandemic, investigating what article in The Southern Daily Echo,
research. Being part of a research team
the pandemic restrictions have meant published 11 February 2021.
means that the team collectively draws
for UK families. Covid-19 lockdowns on different people’s strengths, and that’s
have seen families living in ways never really rewarding when we are successful.
before experienced. For some, more For example, one of the teams I work with
time together seems to have improved was recently awarded a national prize by
relationships between partners and the Economic and Social Research Council,
with their children, providing a welcome who fund much of our research, for the
positive outcome from the crisis.
www.cpc.ac.ukJackline Wahba OBE is a Professor of Economics at the
International Women’s University of Southampton and one of the leading voices on
Day 2021 the economics of migration. She was awarded an OBE for
services to Economic Policy in the Queen’s Birthday Honours
International Women’s Day is an for 2020.
annual celebration of the social,
economic, cultural, and political
achievements of women, held measurement of international student
annually on 8 March. The theme migration in government statistics.
of the UN’s International Women’s
Day for 2021 was “Choose to In 2020, Professor Wahba was part of
Challenge”, representing the need a research team from CPC that won
to challenge global gender bias the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize for
and inequality. Outstanding Public Policy Impact. The
award recognised the Centre’s outstanding
At CPC, we are dedicated to contributions to public policy which
empowering women in STEM have improved estimates of the current
(science, technology, engineering, and future population of the UK. These
and mathematics) to achieve their improvements have provided national
goals and to highlight research that and local policymakers, planners and
can improve the lives of women businesses with better evidence for
around the world. policies and services.
From our female-led senior Since 2012, Professor Wahba has
management team, to lobbying Professor Wahba has overcome gender used her expertise as a member of
policymakers about issues that barriers to lead in a male dominated the government’s Migration Advisory
disproportionately affect women, subject. Through her ground-breaking Committee (MAC). The MAC is an
we hope to balance gender research, she has highlighted the independent public body that advises
inequality. Issues affecting women contribution of migrants, both in the the government on migration issues and
do not exist in a vacuum but destination country and also in their is sponsored by the Home Office. She
impact all aspects of our society. country of origin. Her work has been has also advised national governments
By highlighting gender imbalances, instrumental in shaping the narrative and international organisations, including
we can ensure policymakers are around the positive role of migrants and the World Bank, the Organisation for
equipped with the knowledge to migration. Economic Development and Co-operation,
improve society for everyone. the International Labour Organisation, the
Since achieving her PhD in Economics International Organisation for Migration,
To celebrate this year’s from the University of Southampton, the European Training Foundation and
International Women’s Day, we she has remained with the University the European Commission. She was
focussed on the achievements throughout her academic career, building also recently elected as a member of the
of CPC Director, Professor Jane her scientific standing as well as that of Council of the Royal Economic Society.
Falkingham OBE, and CPC’s the University’s economics department.
migration strand joint co-ordinator, Her cutting-edge research on the As well as a professor for the University
Professor Jackline Wahba OBE. economics of migration has highlighted of Southampton, Jackie is a member of
Both have been recognised as the value of skilled migrants to the UK the ESRC Centre for Population Change, a
Officers of the Order of the British and other nations alongside the vital research fellow of the Economic Research
Empire (OBE), a prestigious award role remittances play in the well-being Forum (ERF), the Centre for Research &
as part of the British honours of those ‘left behind’. Most recently, Analysis of Migration (CReAM) and the
system, recognising people who Professor Wahba has been working with IZA Institute of Labour Economics. She
have made achievements in the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is also a member of the Expert Advisory
public life or who have committed and Universities UK (UUK), helping them Board for the Migration Observatory at the
themselves to serving and helping to understand the post-study intentions University of Oxford.
Britain. of graduating international students.
This work has helped to refine the
16 17Much of the research undertaken
as part of CPC focusses on
issues affecting women – here
is a selection of some our recent
research:
Jane Falkingham OBE is a Professor of
Demography and International Social Policy at the Gender attitudes and practices among married
and cohabiting parents
University of Southampton. She is also Dean of
the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Compared to married counterparts, cohabitors
tend to be more liberal in their attitudes towards
Southampton, and Director of the ESRC Centre for gender roles. However, cohabiting households
Population Change. She was awarded an OBE for also tend to be less affluent and therefore
services to Social Science in the Queen’s Birthday they often have no choice in how they divide
Honours for 2015. household responsibilities due to expensive
childcare or employment conditions.
Teenage pregnancy
Declining rates of teenage pregnancies in
England are related to local areas experiencing
less youth unemployment, growing Black
or South Asian teenage populations, more
educational attainment, unaffordable housing, and
a lack of available social housing.
Households where the woman is the sole
earner are significantly poorer
The ESRC research project ‘Female Breadwinner
Families in Europe’ has been shedding light
on the economic characteristics of female-
breadwinner couples using data from the
Luxembourg Income Study.
Estimating fertility
Through her research, Professor the gender and class barriers Fertility is the most important of the three
Falkingham has changed the she has faced; she grew up in components for determining global population
discourse on women and older a single parent household in a change. Demographers have known for decades
people. Her work has actively deprived area and has gone on to that the total fertility rate, a measure used to
highlighted the positive role women have an esteemed career, holding calculate the number of children a woman would
play in society as daughters, leadership roles at a Russell Group have in her lifetime, has been declining around
mothers, partners and employees, university. She spent the first 21 the world.
as well as demonstrating the often years of her academic career at the
overlooked contribution of older London School of Economics and
people. Political Science (LSE). She joined Furlough makes couples’ relationships
the University of Southampton in stronger
Her work pursues a multi- 2002 as a Professor, becoming The UK government’s furlough scheme has
disciplinary research agenda Head of the School of Social allowed many couples the time and flexibility for
combining social policy and Sciences in 2010 and Dean of the a better work-life balance, strengthening their
population studies, and spanning Faculty of Social Sciences in 2014. relationships.
both developed and developing She is a part of the UK Research
countries. Much of it focusses on and Innovation (UKRI) Executive Covid-19 spells trouble for millions of couples
the social policy implications of Committee as a member of the as study finds unemployment damages
population ageing and demographic Economic and Social Research relationships
change, and what this means Council, and a Fellow of the
Spells of unemployment can damage romantic
for the distribution of social and Academy of Social Sciences and
relationships in both the short- and long- term,
economic welfare. the Royal Society of Arts. In 2018
and are particularly disruptive for women.
she was elected President of the
As well as studying UK population, European Association of Population
she is also involved in wide- Studies (EAPS). She was President Abortion as telemedicine consultation
reaching international research of the British Society for Population During the Covid-19 epidemic, the UK
including projects on ageing and Studies between 2015 and 2017. government temporarily approved the use of
resilience in the slums of Nairobi, medication abortion (that is, inducing an abortion
poverty and transition in Central In 2020, Professor Falkingham using mifepristone and misoprostol pills) at home
Asia and on migration and the and her team from CPC won the after a telephone or online consultation with a
wellbeing of children and older ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize for clinician. CPC researcher Heini Väisänen is part of
people ‘left behind’ in China and Outstanding Public Policy Impact. the team of abortion research experts who have
South Africa. The award recognised her work researched that the introduction of telemedicine
as Director of CPC since 2009, has been beneficial and should be continued.
Professor Falkingham’s career and the Centre’s outstanding
story is particularly inspiring given contributions to public policy.
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