Chamber News DCCI Review December 2019 - Dhaka Chamber of Commerce ...
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Editorial Note DCCI Review December 2019 Capital shortfall The capital shortfall that 12 banks are reported to have pressure on the banks to maintain the capital-to-risk been mired in suggests that the issues of proper loan (weighted) assets ratio at 12.5 per cent, keeping to the pricing have largely remained ignored. This also suggests Third Basel Standards, or Basel III. a poor focus on issues of non-performing loans and Many bankers think that an increase in the amount of non- their recovery. The 12 banks are reported to be faced performing loans is the main reason for the weakening with about Tk 176.58 billion in capital shortfall, as of capital base of the banks that has resulted in the capital September 2019. After the April-June quarter that year, it shortfall at hand. Bangladesh Bank data show that the was 11 banks that had faced about Tk 160.01 billion in amount of loans in default has increased by 23.83 per capital shortfall. Reports in January 2019 show that only cent, or Tk 223.77 billion, in the first nine months of nine banks — six state-owned and three private — faced 2019, taking the amount of non-performing loans to capital shortfall. Tk 1,162.88 billion in September 2019 from Tk 939.11 The 12 banks in question are Community Bank billion in December 2018. Bangladesh, which was not on the list of the previous Economists as well as bankers have, therefore, come quarter, Sonali Bank, ICB Islami Bank, Janata Bank, Agrani to blame the government’s flawed policies such as Bank, Bangladesh Krishi Bank, Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan the introduction of loan rescheduling on easy terms Bank, Bangladesh Commerce Bank Ltd, AB Bank, BASIC and a lenient approach towards large, especially Bank, Rupali Bank and the National Bank of Pakistan. wilful, defaulters as major reasons for an increasing Of the beleaguered banks, the capital shortfall in amount of non-performing loans. It is believed that the Bangladesh Krishi Bank stands at Tk 90.78 billion, the announcement of the loan rescheduling policy and its highest, against its capital-to-risk (weighted) asset of Tk subsequent adoption sent out a wrong signal that the 186.21 billion; the second highest of shortfall is in the government goes easy on loan recovery. While defaulters state-owned Sonali Bank, with Tk 20.56 billion against willing to repay their loans may have stopped so doing, its capital-to-risk (weighted) asset of Tk 568.64 billion. new borrowers might have chosen to follow suit. Even Community Bank Bangladesh, set up in 2019, faces Capital shortfall, considered a serious issue as it weakens Tk 27 million in capital shortfall. Although the remaining bank’s resilience, erodes depositor’s confidence and 46 banks have managed to maintain an adequate capital other partners in the banking sector, and even outside, against their risk (weighted) assets, putting up a capital feel insecure in dealings with such banks. While capital surplus of Tk 142.47 billion, the 12 banks with capital shortfall stops banks from running with efficiency, it shortfall have put at risk the banking sector on the whole. also adds to the operating cost and reduces profitability. The banks at hand have failed to maintain the minimum Partners outside the country may not feel confident about capital adequacy ratio, which is critical in ensuring such banks and letters of credit opened with such banks that they have enough cushion to absorb a reasonable may not be honoured in some cases. Inter-bank borrowing amount of losses before they become insolvent and lose also becomes dearer for banks facing capital shortfall. depositor’s funds. The overall capital-to-risk (weighted) If the problem of capital shortfall is not attended to, early assets ratio in the banking sector declined to 11.65 per and in earnest, the existences of the banks may be at stake, cent, as of September 2019, from 11.73 per cent three finally leading to bankruptcy. Banks should, therefore, months before. shore up the issues of any drastic increase in loans and The capital-to-risk (weighted) assets ratio in the banking advances, asset quality, restructuring non-performing sector, however, increased to 11.41 per cent in March loans with less than required down payment and no 2019 from 10.5 per cent in December 2018. The protection against non-performing loans in disguise to Bangladesh Bank has, in such a situation, mounted improve on the situation r 3
BUSINESS KALEIDOSCOPE Entrepreneur…Intrapreneur…and ‘Ultrapreneur’ Electricity tariff hike move- challenges private sector prosperity Energy is the much needed resource for all economies The current reserve and supply of natural gas looks slim across the world. Affordable and uninterrupted energy is and downward. We are undergoing 1000 MMCFD gas critical for industrial, trade development and economic supply shortage. Despite electricity production capacity growth cycle of Bangladesh. Energy related economic increase, the gas based power generation plants are operations enshrining power generation, transport, underperforming and electricity production trend remains industry, commercial activities, fertilizer and domestic unutilized. On the other hand, many gas intensive consumption largely depend on natural gas. Power industry investment is not expanding as expected due to sector is the largest natural gas user followed by industry primary energy shortage. and captive power in terms of consumption. It is worth To meet the soaring gas demand, Government entered into mentioning that with the gas shortage, power generation import regime of expensive Liquid natural gas. Initially, capacity reached to 22500 MW brining almost 92% 1000 MMCFD was planned to import and against that people under electricity network. 600 MMCFD is being imported to ease the gas demand. Our industry to GDP ratio reached 35.14% with 23.01% In this circumstance, 32.8% gas tariff hike was made in manufacturing sector contribution indicates efficient 2019 to adjust the incremental gas tariff. Since natural energy use and manufacturing expansion. Indeed, the gas is in the backward linkage of electricity production, incremental power generation trend helped to a large the gas tariff may impact the power generation cost and extent our economic growth evidencing 8 percent growth supply. regime. Bangladesh is going through the economic Ahead of long-held vision of economic graduation by transition towards economic graduation into a developing 2024, emergence into 28th largest economy by 2030 and country and during this phase sustainable power supply UN SDG achievement, our investment to GDP ratio need and tariff are inevitable. Private and public sector account to be enhanced around 40% from current ratio of 31% for 55% and 45% respectively of total power generation with double digit GDP growth. To meet these investment of country as of now though the situation may change targets, we need to obtain energy security. According due to deep engagement of private sector. to revised Power Sector Master Plan (PSMP), the power 4
BUSINESS KALEIDOSCOPE demand will be increased to 27.4 GW in 2030 and Taking this entire private sector and economic state into 51 GW in 2041 to steer our game-changing economic account, hereafter some observations on power sector visions. development and relevant issues are forwarded: Against the escalating power production cost, all bulk • Coal reserve of Bangladesh is 7962 Million Mt and retail electricity distributors and transmission equivalent to 70 TCF gas and this coal needs to be companies claim the rationale of electricity tariff hike to used as an alternative cheaper fuel to produce power balance operation cost. In the brief electricity tariff hike to rationalize the cost of power production and add initiative, we have found that estimated 129924 million leverage in fuel mix. As a fuel importing country, KWh electricity will be procured in 2020. As the main we have to rationalize power production cost using producer and distributor, BPDB claimed that in bulk tariff alternative fuel mix. level loss in selling price incurred ranging from TK. 1.50 to TK.2.28 per KWh through their bulk sale to distribution • Combined cycle power plants are more efficient companies and system loss remained within 7%. BPDB for Bangladesh. Using combined cycle additional also claims total distribution expense shortage around TK. electricity can be produced by 10-15%. All government 526 million with operation cost. plants need to be remodeled to combined cycle power plants for operational efficiency. Dual fuel peaking All other distribution and transmission companies also plants may be used. The declining trend of legacy gas demanded tariff hike as they are dependent on purchase also threatens power generation cost and stimulate from BPDP. PGCB claimed 50% transmission tariff hike power purchase tariff. as their transmission network is not strong and sufficient enough to support entire supply system. As a whole, BPDP • Off-shore blocs need to be allocated for new seismic claimed tariff loss of TK. 8560 crore. Different Private survey and exploration works to improve gas supply. sector stakeholders i.e. industry, consumer associations And, Local Exploration and Production companies also raised deep concern on the potential impact of tariff need to be well-equipped technically and financially hike in public hearing as plan of electricity tariff hike to better function gas production. within 6 month time of gas tariff hike is a big blow to • Long-term and predicable energy tariff needs to be local industry. determined for the greater interest of investment and 9. 82% lowest Private sector credit flow in a decade, economy and to keep the electricity tariff minimum. consistent fall in capital machinery import and export • New transmission and distribution lines need to be trade indicate investment slump across the country. This expedited and private sector can be engaged in these proposed electricity hike will affect our competiveness initiatives. both in home and global market. Almost all power intensive manufacturing industries may be adversely • IPP and RPP agreements can be revised and made affected especially SME sector, steel re-rolling, textile timely and reduced corporate tax rate can be offered sector may face average 5% to 8% production cost height. to support them instead of huge subsidy. Especially, Small and medium business using 50 to 100 Kwh power will be severely affected. Echoing the pro-business promise of the Government, private sector would like In a cross-country power tariff scenario, Bangladesh has to urge for low cost energy an advantage in competitive tariff with USD 0.09 cent supply and innovative compared to Thailand, Indonesia, India and Pakistan as solutions to rationalize the one of the salient strength of investment attraction which power tariff. Indeed, low cost will no longer be existent. This tariff hike will slim the relocation of sunset industries from Japan, Korea and and uninterrupted electricity China, hurt the massive infrastructure work, export supply is the enabler of private competiveness and low cost-of-living and doing business. investment led economic There has been tariff escalation in several occasions since growth towards long-cherished 2010 and if this hike continues we will lose our position economic vision of being a from global competiveness map. developed country by 2041. President’s Pick of the Month 5
Chamber News DCCI Review December 2019 Shams Mahmud elected DCCI President for 2020 DCCI holds 58th AGM Shams Mahmud N K A Mobin FCA, FCS Mohammad Bashiruddin President Senior Vice-President Vice-President Shams Mahmud has been elected also on the Board of Directors Bangladesh. He has been the President of the Dhaka Chamber of of the Bangladesh Textile Mills’ government-nominated director Commerce and Industry for 2020 Association, the Dutch-Bangla on the Biman Bangladesh Airlines while NKA Mobin, FCA, FCS and Chamber of Commerce and Ltd board since 2016. Mobin is a Mohammad Bashiruddin have been Industry and Vice-President of the member of the Gulshan North Club, elected Senior Vice-President and Bangladesh-Philippines Chamber of the Uttara Club, the Baridhara Club Vice President respectively for the Commerce and Industry. He received and the Kurmitola Golf Club. His 2020 tenure. the National Gold Export Trophy in expertise covers top management 2011–12, 2012–13 and 2013–14 and leadership, financial management The new Board of Directors took over the Silver Export Trophy in 2017–18. and project management skills, ERP charge at the 58th annual general He was awarded the Highest Export solutions and company secretarial meeting of the DCCI held in its Award by the Bangladesh Textile practices. auditorium on December 23, 2019. Mills Association in 2010–11. The newly elected Vice-President The newly elected directors are The newly elected Senior Vice- Mohammad Bashiruddin was born Arman Haque, Md Shahid Hossain, President NKA Mobin is the in a respected Muslim family in Old Md Zia Uddin, Monowar Hossain Managing Director and CEO of Dhaka in 1962. Bashir is involved and Engr Shamsuzzoha Chowdhury. Emerging Credit Rating Ltd and has in food and bakery business, The newly elected President Shams been engaged in credit rating of agribusiness, real estate development, Mahmud is an eminent and leading corporate business houses, banks and import and restaurant chain. He is business entrepreneur in the textile financial Institutions and insurance the Managing Director of Capital and apparel sector. Mahmud is a business since 2009. He completed Agro Aqua Enterprise Ltd, Capital Capstone Fellow of the National his BBA and MBA in finance from the Siraj Centre Shopping Mall, Canary Defence College. He is the Managing University of Dhaka. He completed Ltd and Digital Agro Industries Ltd. Director of Shasha Denims Limited, his triple EMBA from Stockholm He is also director of Capital Shasha Garments Limited, Shasha Business School, Sweden, the Confectionery, Capital Consortium Spinning Ltd. and Shasha Textiles National University of Singapore and Ltd and Bamboo Castle Fast Food Limited. INSEAD in France. Shop. He is a member of the Rugby He is the Honorary Consul of He is currently the Vice-President Federation and former executive the Federal Democratic Republic and fellow member of the Institute committee member of Dhaka Samity r of Ethiopia in Bangladesh. He is of Chartered Accountants of 6
Chamber News DCCI Review December 2019 Skills development must to tackle automation job cut DCCI holds seminar on skills development Minister for Labour and Employment Begum Monnujan Sufian, MP (fourth from left) speaking at a seminar on “Future Skills Development Required for Bangladesh” held on December 7. Principal Secretary, Prime Minister’s Office Md. Nojibur Rahman (fourth from right), DCCI President Osama Taseer (third from left), President, Bangladesh Employers’ Federation Kamran T. Rahman (second from left), Senior Vice President of BGMEA Faisal Samad (right), Additional Director General of Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training Sheikh Rafiqul Islam (second from right), Chairman of BSCIC Md. Mostaque Hasan (third from right) and Member of National Skills Development Authority Mohammad Rezaul Karim (left) were also present. The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce sector alone creates around 32.52 polytechnic institutes and allowed and Industry organized a seminar on percent of jobs. the private sector to come forward “Future Skills Development Required to establish more such institutes. He said that traditional job for Bangladesh” on December 7, She said that according to ILO, two requirements will no longer be 2019 at the Sonargaon Hotel, Dhaka. million fresh educated young people eligible and the criteria will be enter the job market every year. But The Minister for Labour and replaced with the knowledge of to accommodate them in this 4IR Employment Begum Monnujan technology, 4IR, robotics, internet of things, big data, etc. “To create a transition period, “We have to train Sufian, MP was present as chief guest skilled work force that will be able them and develop their skills. while Md Nojibur Rahman, Principal Secretary, Prime Minister’s Office was to take the challenges of 4IR, we Our academic curriculum cannot present as guest of honour. Kamran T must create an industry-academia create skills for jobs.” She said Rahman, President of the Bangladesh collaboration from now and without that the manufacturing sector was Employers’ Federation, was present any delay.” gradually adopting technology which as special guest. He also said, “Our NRBs send may cut jobs but it will create more $16.42 billion and contribute to innovative jobs as well. The outgoing DCCI President Osama Taseer in his welcome address said, our economy but countries such as Md Nojibur Rahman urged the “In Bangladesh, we have a work India, Mexico and the Philippines formulation of a needs-based force of 63.5 million young people earn more remittances through their curriculum coming out of the who contribute to our economic skilled work force.” Future jobs will traditional system of education to development.” He also said that have more high-tech orientation. “We cater to the demand of the industry. the Fourth Industrial Revolution has need to give significant importance The world is going fast and adapting changed the dynamics of employment to re-skilling and up-skilling to ready to newer technological shift, so “We generation. He said 6.58 percent of our work force for future jobs.” should not waste our time.” He said the total work force were engaged in Begum Monnujan Sufian said that the that according to a2i, 5.5 million the industrial sector and the apparel government had established a few people in five sectors, which is 47 7
Chamber News DCCI Review December 2019 percent of the total work force, may General of Bureau of Manpower, The Fourth Industrial Revolution has lose their job because of automation Employment and Training Sheikh already started. “We do not need by 2041. “Skills development, re- Rafiqul Islam and BSCIC Chairman to worry about any job cut because skilling, up-skilling, technology Md Mostaque Hasan also spoke as the 4IR like other revolutions that we adaptation, training and research and panel discussants. saw in the past will create more job development are some of the main opportunities. areas where we should focus now.” The BSCIC chairman said that the The agriculture sector is vast which agency would establish 50 industrial We just need to formulate a will create more job opportunities parks by 2030. Faisal Samad technology-based curriculum and but it needs to be modernized. underscored the importance of proper arrange technology-based training, training for female apparel workers and skills development of the existing Kamran T Rahman, President of the to create leadership qualities among workers.” Bangladesh Employers’ Federation, them. Sheikh Rafiqul Islam urged said that 80 percent of jobs are created DCCI Vice-President Imran Ahmed more budget to conduct research and in the industrial sector. He also offered the vote of thanks. development both in the public and stressed the need for diversification private sectors. of potential exportable items rather DCCI Directors Engr Akber Hakim, depending solely on apparel. He also Mohammad Rezaul Karim, Member Alhaj Deen Mohammad, Enamul said that skilled work force is one of of the National Skills Development Haque Patwary, Kh Rashedul the main components that can attract Authority, presented the keynote Ahsan, KMN Monjurul Hoque, Md foreign direct investment. paper. He said that 60 percent of total Rashedul Karim Munna, Mohammad Senior Vice-President of the BGMEA work force in the apparel sector will Bashiruddin, Nuher L Khan and SM Faisal Samad, Additional Director come under automation by 2041. Zillur Rahman were present r DCCI donates blankets to cold-hit people The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry under its CSR programmes donated warm clothes and blankets, as it does every year, to social organizations and trade bodies for their distribution among the distressed suffering cold across the country. The outgoing DCCI President Osama Taseer handed over the clothes and blankets to representatives of the Dinajpur Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Nilphamari Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Lalmonirhat Chamber of Commerce DCCI President Osama Taseer (fourth from left) seen handing over warm cloth to President and Industry, the Chapainawabganj of Dinajpur Chamber of Commerce & Industry Suja Ur Rob Chowdhury (fifth from left) on Chamber of Commerce and Industry, December 14. DCCI Vice President Imran Ahmed (fifth from right), Directors Shams Mahmud Anjuman Mafidul Islam, Dhaka (sixth from right), Mohammad Bashiruddin (third from left), Hossain A Sikder (fourth from right), Alhaj Deen Mohammad (third from right), Enamul Haque Patwary (left), former Senior Mohanagar Samity, Dhaka Shilpa Vice President Alhaj Abdus Salam (second from left), former Vice Presidents M Abu Horairah Malik Samity, Mizbah-ul Ulum (second from right) and Absar Karim Chowdhury (right) are seen in the picture. Madrasha, Moitree Sangha, Hossai Ali-Hasna Welfare Foundation, etc. DCCI Vice-President Imran Vice-President Alhaj Abdus Salam, Ahmed, Directors Shams Mahmud, and former Vice-Presidents M Abu The DCCI President called on all Mohammad Bashiruddin, Hossain Horairah, Absar Karim Chowdhury well-to-do people of society to stay A Sikder, Alhaj Deen Mohammad, were present r beside the cold-hit distressed people. Enamul Haque Patwary, former Senior 8
Article Chamber News DCCI DCCI Review Review December December 2019 2019 Transfer of ownership of export bill M S Siddiqui of title affects the parties’ rights in the event of total or Legal Economist partial loss and damage or destruction of the goods. These e-mail: mssiddiqui2035@gmail.com are regulated by the “Incoterm’’ issued by International I n international trade, two important transfer of Chamber of Commerce and accepted and adapted by all ownership facilitate cross border trade. On transfer stakeholders involved in international trade. is for consignment and another is the payment or The other part of the sales contract is the consideration or consideration of the contract for export. payment for of the consignment. The payment to be made The transfer of ownership of consignment is specified by cash in advance, deferred payment for specified time in the sales contract very explicitly. The cross border and specific instrument of payment such as open account, sales contract certain specific points of products, origin, documentary collection/cash against documents, or letter price, form and date of payment, delivery period, etc. of credit, revolving letter of credit etc. The right over the The transfer of ownership of consignment is the point of payment also transferable. In all export transactions risk accrued of payment. is a major consideration which needs to be minimised in all business dealings. The transfer ownership takes at a point of time and place as agreed following the international law and practice. Some exporters, particularly smaller operations need In cross border trade, it is specified in the international immediate cash after export/ sale on the other hand buyer sale contract by statements like: Seller and buyer agree /importer benefited of delay of the payment. These two that (a) title for the contact of goods will pass to the different option are well supported by Invoice discounting buyer when the consignment have been shipped from the or sale of Invoice to any FI or finance company. The best seller´s premises (ex-works), (b) that title for the contact of solution is Bill discounting or Invoice sale. goods will pass to the buyer when they have been handed over to forwarding agent at port of shipment (FOB) and These FIs provides collection service or purchase / title will transfer while boarded on transport at certain discount Export Bills under L/C to allow exporters to use port (C&F)”, or (c) tile will remain unchanged until the the money before actually receiving payment or before consignment reached the country of destination and sale the payment due date from an overseas buyer. by the importer /distributor (Consignment sales). The FI and third-party financial company acting as International trade has another contract between the the collector of directly from the buyer of goods/ Exporter and shipping (transport) company. This contract services — when the invoice is due. The option enables reflected in the bill of loading (B/L) issued by Shipping the business owners to finance immediate working company or their agent. International bill of loading are capital needs or improve cash flow situation by availing air waybill, ocean bill of lading, rail bill of loading or credit based on bill discounting / account receivables. truck bill of loading considering the mode of transport. Such a short term loan is unlike traditional bank loan. The The document also includes Invoice, certificate of origin, traditional bank loan has many formalities and usually packing list and others as per contract. should be secured by mortgage of property or other In case of shipment by sea, there are two types: a straight valuables. In case of bill discounting, the FI facilitate bill of lading, which is non-negotiable, and a negotiable the service to recover of bill from overseas buyer since or shipper’s order bill of lading. The ownership of Bangladesh Foreign Exchange regulating act 1947 make the consignment also transferable through transfer of the exporter liable for recovery of foreign exchange of all ownership of B/L. The negotiable B/L can be bought, exports. Exporter must ‘get’ the payment within 4 months sold, or traded while the goods are in transit. Transfer of export as per law. 9
Article Chamber News DCCI Review DCCI Review December December 2019 2019 The payment terms of sales contract usually have terms of deferred payment. The exporter can discount the documents of payment for immediate payment. There are many methods of the Invoice discounting is a different way of obtaining an advance on invoices by discounting or complete transfer of right over payment against the Invoice. Most of the Financial Institutions are providing discount of Invoice to their customers. Many overseas institutions also pay advance to exporter and take the responsibility of collection of payment on non-recourse basis. In that case the ownership of invoice transferred to the financing company. whether by way of damages or otherwise, shall vest in This transaction is a modern financial product of Banks, the transferee, whether such notice of the transfer as in Non-Bank Financial Institutions and international trade hereinafter provided be given or not. finance companies. Their transaction agreement has The Financial trading companies operating in Bangladesh three parties. The FI pay to the exporter advance against were dealing such transaction without explicit law or document and collect documents from the buyer. These policy of legality of transfer of right over the invoice. The international companies or financial institution extend conservative foreign exchange law has indirect restriction the advance against ownership of Invoice. They use the on many transactions of foreign currency of modern days. legal right over Invoice as security. They may even take Bangladesh Bank have filled up the legal gap through legal action against buyer /importer for enforcement of the FE circular no 43 dated 17 November 2019 titled original sale contract between exporter and importer for “Discounting of direct or deemed export bills – transfer payment etc. of right”. The laws and policies of Bangladesh were silent about It has granted general permission for assigning rights to the such transfer of ownership on Invoice. Under section 3 dues at maturity of a usage bill of export from Bangladesh of the Transfer of Property Act, 1882, an actionable claim in favor of a license bank / financial institution abroad includes a claim to an unsecured debt. But there is no by paying usance bill in full, final and without recourse. interpretation whether Invoice or Bill receivables are The circular also referred to the instruction at paragraph considered actionable claim. 25, Chapter 8 of Foreign Exchange Transactions (GFET), There is no definition of movable property in Transfer of 2018, which also allowed the overseas correspondent Property Act, 1882. Movable property has been defined in institutions under subsection (b) stating that The ADs may the General Clauses Act,1897 to mean ‘property of every arrange fund against the discounting of usnace bills in description except immovable property’. The Registration foreign exchange through their own OBUs/correspondent Act, 1908 defines movable property to include property banks, financial institutions abroad or international of every description except immovable property, but financing Institutions. The overseas correspondent should including standing timber, growing crops and grass. include the international financial trading companies who are playing an import role in global export trade Section 130 of the Transfer of Property Act, 1882 provides finance. that, the transfer of an actionable claim whether with or without consideration shall be effected only by the The policy will facilitate export finance and also easy execution of an instrument in writing signed by the collection of outstanding export bill and boosts export of transferor or his duly authorized agent, shall be complete the country. and effectual upon the execution of such instrument, and thereupon all the rights and remedies of the transferor, 10
National Economy DCCI Review December 2019 SMEs significant contributor to growth The economic growth and sustainable development of a country by a large measure depends on SME development. Speakers made the observations at the 23rd International Conference for SMEs on “Achieving Inclusive and Sustainable Goal Through SME 4.0 by Promoting SMEs” in India recently. The World Association for Small and Medium Enterprises organised the event, supported by the MSME ministry of India, at the WASME International Secretariat, Film City, Noida. Zillur Rahman and Associate Editor the backbone of a country and the Senior Chief Executive of Ministry of of Economic Times Pranbihanga economic growth and sustainable Business and Enterprise Mauritius AN Borpuzari were present and also development of a country depends Oozeer inugurated the conference spoke. on SMEs development. as chief guest and addressed the opening session which was followed WASME Secretary General Dr Gyan The 23rd ICSME was aimed at by WASME Excellence Award Prakash Agarwal gave the welcome promoting SME development session. address while its Senior Advisor initiatives and integrating it with the Shailendra Kumar presented the 2030 agenda of achieving Sustainable India’s State Minister for Health keynote. Development Goals (SDGs) set by and Family Welfare Ashwini Kumar the United Nations. The conference Choubey attended the WASME In his address Zillur Rahman, also comprised six technical sessions on Excellence Award session. Besides, Director of Dhaka Chamber of economy, strategy, technology, work Ambassador of Mauritius to Germany Commerce and Industry, presented force of SME 4.0 and UN’s SDG. Kheswar Jankee, Director of United the SME status of Bangladesh Founding Chairman of KCC Group Nations ESCAP Dr Nagesh Kumar, and stated how the SMEs could Dr Sharad Kohli moderated the Vice-President (chief in Bangladesh) contribute more to development of programme r of the World Association of SMEs SM different countries. He said SMEs are Apparel sector lashed by giant waves A tale of two halves sums up best to restructure their capital product diversification. Even after how the garment sector, Bangladesh’s expenditure, operating expenditure four decades, the country’s garment main export earner, fared in 2019. and supply chain. “Then they will sector is still stuck in basic items: still In the first six months of the year, have a very good future,” he added. 73 percent of the shipments consist apparel shipments fetched $17.05 of T-shirts, trousers, sweaters, formal But the general sentiment of experts billion. And the trend continued shirts and jackets. and analysts is that the slowdown into fiscal 2019–20, which began in apparel shipment is a reflection There has been a slow graduation on July 1. But from August exports of the waning competitiveness of towards value-added and high-end started dipping and the trend appears Bangladesh’s garment industry. garment items for upscale customers to be continuing. Yet $13.09 billion was received between July and For instance, Bangladesh’s apparel in the Western world. Bangladesh is November, down 7.74 percent year- exports dropped 6.67 percent still lagging behind in production of on-year. between July and October whereas technical and smart clothing items, its closest competitor Vietnam’s grew due to which it could not tap into the “I consider this is a correction,” 6.41 percent. global market for hospital clothing, said David Hasanat, chairman and school uniforms and armed forces, managing director of Viyellatex Vietnam is honing in on Bangladesh’s worth billions of dollars. Group, a leading garment exporter. position as the world’s second largest Companies can take this opportunity apparel supplier by focusing on Garment exporters and sector analysts 11
National Economy DCCI Review December 2019 though blamed the strength of the “It was a happening year for the But looking ahead, garment local currency against the US dollar garment industry,” said Rubana Huq, manufacturers are expecting a better as the main reason for declining president of the Bangladesh Garment year in 2020. “It’s difficult to project shipments from Bangladesh. Manufacturers and Exporters’ the trend since the global market Association, adding that the year saw looks volatile due to the emergence One US dollar now exchanges of a number of factors,” Huq said. a number of positive developments. for Tk 85. Another reason for diminishing shipments is over- The end to the deadlock to the The EU-Vietnam free trade agreement, reliance on traditional markets, Accord’s phase out from Bangladesh the strategic move by China to offset the impact of punitive tariff by which can be construed as laziness and formation of the national lowering prices and the emergence or complacency. Shipments to the safety monitoring regime the ‘RMG of new sourcing destinations are traditional markets of the US, the EU Sustainability Council’ were major becoming sources of concern for and Canada are on the wane due to breakthroughs. Bangladesh r economic slowdown there. “Our journey to sustainability But the emerging markets are continued with pride,” she said, Govt plans single-digit providing a ray of hope: garment adding that the number of green interest rate exports to non-traditional markets factories crossed 100, 25 of which grew to nearly $7 billion from were platinum LEED-certified. Some The Bangladesh Bank is set to raise somewhere between $400 million 500 more are waiting for certification. the loan-deposit ratio by 1 more percentage point as it plans to reduce and $500 million in 2008. But despite all investments made the interest rate for the manufacturing India, China and Japan are showing in workplace safety, compliance, sector and increase lendable fund of big potential, with shipments to the implementation of new wage structure banks. At the same time, the finance Fareast Asian nation crossing $1 and green industrialisation the unit ministry is taking a measure to bar billion. The government’s 4 percent price did not see much improvement. government entities from seeking incentive for shipments to new export The unit price to the EU and the US more than 6 percent interest rate on destinations accelerated the process. increased 2.22 percent and 5.57 deposits from banks. percent respectively in the first 10 The concerted moves come as part of The US-China trade war can be a boon months of 2019 and yet the price the government’s efforts to give a shot for Bangladesh as China has been level remains significantly lower on a in the arm to the embattled banking losing its export orders. However, five-year comparison, she said. sector. Notices on the two would be in this case, Bangladesh will have to improve the business climate and The price of apparel imported by the issued very soon, Finance Minister productivity at the factory level. In US from Bangladesh between January AHM Mustafa Kamal said. The loan- the near future, duty concessions and October was down 2.20 percent deposit ratio is now 85 percent for in international trade will vanish as from five years earlier, according to regular banks and 90 percent for the country is set to graduate from the Office of Textiles and Apparel. Islamic banks. the least-developed bracket to the The same happened for EU: 1.94 In other words, for every Tk 100 of developing bracket. percent, according to Eurostat. deposit regular banks can lend Tk 85. But soon, they will be able to give out Tk 86 and Islamic banks Tk 91.This will cause a surge in loanable funds by about Tk 10,000 crore, Kamal said. The central bank will also issue a notice to cap the interest rate on manufacturing loans, which is set to go down to single digit in a couple of days.The development comes after the central bank formed a seven- member committee earlier this month to come up with ways to bring 12
National Economy DCCI Review December 2019 down the interest rate to single digit “The production cost in the apparel accounts are expected to be worked as per an instruction from the finance sector increased by 30 percent in the up within the next couple of days, he ministry. last four years. Similarly, the export added. For developing countries a earnings have continued a downward budget deficit is not unusual as the Banks now charge interest rates trend in recent period,” she said. government needs to spend big on between 12 percent and 14 percent for industrial loans, which manufacturers The move will help manufacturers building infrastructure to shore up deem excessive.The committee set up new industrial units and future economic activities. headed by its Deputy Governor SM expand the existing ones, said The government meets the gap Moniruzzaman submitted a report Rubana, also the managing director between income and expenditure to the finance ministry and the BB of Mohammadi Group. But banks are through domestic and foreign board on December 24, based on in a panic because of the single-digit borrowing obtained as loans or which the notices will be issued. interest rate as it will hit their profit. grants.But keeping the deficit within The lift in loan-deposit ratio is a “Every bank will see a profit decline 5 percent is recommended, and is positive move of the government, Zaid ranging from Tk 150 crore to Tk in fact considered international best Bakht, a member of this committee 200 crore per year because of the practice. and chairman of Agrani Bank, said. implementation of the lower rate,” said Syed Mahbubur Rahman, In Bangladesh, when the budget Banks’ loanable funds will increase chairman of the Association of is drafted a 5 percent deficit is as a result and their cost of funds will Bankers, Bangladesh, a forum of projected. The actual deficit turns out come down too. Their profit margin managing directors of private banks. to be about 4 percent every year as will not reduce significantly due to “The economy will get a boost but the ministries and divisions fail to use the single digit interest rate as banks banks will fall into a crisis,” said up their allocated funds. will get benefits from the central bank and the government, Bakht said. Rahman, also the managing director Finance Minister AHM Mustafa of Mutual Trust Bank r Kamal acknowledged that revenue About 50 percent of the government deposits will be kept in private banks growth was slow. and the interest rate will be 6 percent, Budget deficit goes over “But the government’s expenditure Kamal said. This will bring down the 5pc boundary also increased for the implementation banks’ cost of funds r Budget deficit, which is when of some mega infrastructure projects. spending exceeds revenue, is set It was capital expenditure, which Industrial loans to cross the sensible perimeter of 5 will ultimately bring benefits to the percent of the GDP in fiscal 2018–19 economy,” he said. As a result, budget Businesspeople welcomed the for the first time in 12 years on the deficit could not be contained to the central bank’s initiative, saying the back of ebbing collections of the tax previous limit. measure will give a shot in the arm administrator. Revenue collection of the industrial sector, giving them grew 10.67 percent last fiscal year “But, this is a one-off,” he said, adding respite from the burden of higher against the target of about 46 percent, that the deficit will be restricted within interest rates.But bankers and experts according to provisional data of the 5 percent this fiscal year as revenue expressed their concern and said National Board of Revenue. But, data is expected to grow.Last fiscal year it would have a negative impact on from the Comptroller and Auditor coincided with the national elections, the banking sector as lenders will General office shows that the growth so the government’s spending from shy away from disbursing loans to was less than 10 percent. its own funds was higher than from the industrial sector due to the lower foreign sources, said another finance As per the finance division’s interest rate. ministry official.This also had an provisional data, the budget deficit last fiscal year was 5.2 percent. “In effect in raising the budget deficit, he “The decision to bring down the the end, it may be even bigger,” added. lending rate would help export- oriented industries to mitigate said a finance ministry official upon Fiscal deficit in 2018-19 increased existing crisis,” said Rubana Huq, condition of anonymity. due to both revenue shortfall and president of the Bangladesh Garment It takes at least six months to work expenditure increases, said Zahid Manufacturers and Exporters’ out the actual deficit after the Hussain, former lead economist of Association. conclusion of the fiscal year. The final the World Bank’s Dhaka office. 13
National Economy DCCI Review December 2019 Usually, shortfall in expenditures containers to the total handled till In the last one year, investors’ stock buffers the revenue shortfall relative 8am on December 21, when the value lost Tk 81,494 crore, or 19.40 to the budget target, thus keeping the target was achieved r percent, pulling the overall market deficit below the original 5 percent of capitalisation down to Tk 338,493 GDP budget target. crore. Stock investors haunted by “Last fiscal year was an exception trust deficit, liquidity crisis “The capital market was moribund to this trend and it is most likely to and stock investors lost confidence Stock investors passed a very continue this fiscal year as well” r disappointing year in 2019 as the because of macroeconomic situation, market was largely down by lack listing of low performing companies, Ctg port on world’s ‘three of confidence, liquidity crisis and and a lack of corporate governance in regulatory challenges, dwarfing the listed companies,” said Mizanur millionaire’ list many measures that the government Rahman, a stock market analyst. The Chittagong port has made it to took to prop it up. In the last three to four months, the the list of ‘three millionaire ports’ In the beginning, the market showed current account deficit widened club in the world by handling 30 signs of hope on the back of political because of the rise of government lakh twenty-foot equivalent units calmness aided by the peaceful expenditure and stagnant revenue of containers this year. There are 60 national elections in December 2018, earnings, said Rahman, also a such seaports in the world. policy consistency and stable macro- professor of the accounting and Earlier, the Bangladeshi port was economic indicators.The benchmark information systems department at index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange ranked 64th in the list of the world’s top the University of Dhaka. surged 8.87 percent to 5,950 points 100 container handling seaports by within a month. “So, the central bank had to sell a the maritime world’s internationally recognised Lloyd’s Marine Survey But the following 11 months were huge amount of US dollars to save the and Consulting.The calculations of upsetting, as the DSEX gave up taka from exchange rate fluctuation container handling were recorded 1,531.18 points, or 25.73 percent, to that ultimately created liquidity from January 1 to December 22 this fall to 4,418.83 at the end of the year, pressure in the market.” year, said Md Omar Faruk, secretary the lowest in three and a half years. Turnover, an important indicator of Professor Rahman said many of the Chittagong Port Authority. companies were listed in the last the market, averaged Tk 900 crore The addition of modern equipment, daily in January but it fell to Tk 300 few years but they performed poorly. including new gantry cranes, and crore in the end. Investors bought these shares at increased capacity of the port have higher prices but did not get higher The round-the-year liquidity crisis helped the CPA a lot to achieve dividends. in the banking sector, sell-offs of the glory, he said. Most of the foreign investors and some policy There was a huge crisis of corporate containers were handled at New changes were largely to blame. These governance in the banking and non- Mooring Container Terminal and all created a huge confidence crisis banking financial sector. As a result, Chittagong Container Terminal. The among the investors, bringing down non-performing loans rose and the two contributed more than 17 lakh their investment. capital adequacy ratio suffered, spooking investors’ confidence. The NPLs stood at Tk 116,288 crore in September, which was 11.99 percent of the total outstanding loans in banks. Throughout the year, bank and NBFIs said they did not have enough funds to invest in the stock market. Some institutional investors reduced investment in the market. But financial institutions with funds suffered from a lack of confidence. 14
National Economy DCCI Review December 2019 As of January, the excess liquidity 9 percent interest rate, just by making 2019 growth is something to in banks stood at Tk 67,642 crore, 2 percent down payment. rejoice about down 11.45 percent from that a Rescheduling is a global practice The economy has faced a number of month earlier and 13 percent year- and helps businesses when they are new challenges on its business and on-year, according to data from the in dire straits, Rahman said.“But, central bank. In February, it dropped fiscal fronts in 2019, even though many of our lenders are using the to Tk 63,921 crore. The situation the political atmosphere has been tool to mitigate their problems on a deteriorated further later. As a result, peaceful, according to economists temporary basis. the private sector credit growth and businesses.The new challenges dropped to a six-year low of 11.29 As a result, a good amount of are hefty borrowing from the banking percent last fiscal year r rescheduled loans turn into defaulted system by the government, fall in ones frequently,” said Rahman, also export receipts, continued pick-up in the managing director of Mutual inflation rate and declining import of Loan rescheduling hits Trust Bank. He said rescheduling raw materials. new high usually goes up in keeping with the rising trend of NPLs. “So, we should Besides, the economy also confronted Banks rescheduled a record amount check NPLs on a mandatory basis to a number of major problems such as of defaulted loans in the first nine contain the stressed assets.” soaring non-performing loans in the months of 2019 as part of their efforts banking sector and slow collection to contain bad debt and manage The rescheduling of defaulted hefty profit, albeit artificially. loans will allow banks not to keep of revenues and poor private sector provisioning, meaning they will be credit growth in the year 2019.The Between January and September, capital market passed another bad able to show higher profits, a central non-performing loans amounting to year, in terms of market capitalisation, banker says. Tk 31,175 crore were regularised, turnover and investors’ confidence. the highest on record even for a The relaxed policy on rescheduling single year.The previous record was has given a wrong signal to the But the GDP recorded a healthy set in 2018, when banks rescheduled financial sector and may create 8.15 percent growth in the fiscal Tk 23,210 crore. a moral hazard, said Mustafizur year 2018-19. Professor Dr Shamsul Rahman, a distinguished fellow of Alam, member at the General But the record amount of loan the Centre for Policy Dialogue, a Economics Division at the ministry rescheduling has failed to rein in the think-tank. of planning, said that Bangladesh has upward trend of defaulted loans for Many good borrowers may feel been attaining “impressive growth” want of corporate governance in the discouraged to repay their loans on over the past four years. banking sector, analysts said. time because of the easy repayment “To my mind, GDP growth rate, As of September, cumulative defaulted policy, he said.A reform programme loans stood at Tk 116,288 crore, up increase in broad money and should have been taken to improve other indicators have been playing 23.82 percent from December last the financial health of banks, he year. The rescheduling of loans will an important role in economic said, adding that the latest initiative transformation of Bangladesh,” said escalate in the October-December will rather undermine the corporate quarter because of the relaxed policy Dr Alam a senior secretary. governance. offered by the central bank, said Syed He, however, acknowledged that the Mahbubur Rahman, chairman of the “The record amount of rescheduling rate of inflation had been increasing Association of Bankers, Bangladesh, will hit banks’ profitability as funds over the past four months eroding a forum of private banks’ managing remain stuck for long because of the tool,” Rahman said. “Banks could real income.He, however, said: “The directors. have earned a good income and four months cannot be representative Keeping to a High Court instruction, profit if they had recovered the funds for the entire year.” the central bank had earlier extended on time. This also would have given Dr Alam underscored the need for the deadline for defaulters several them chances to provide fresh loans.” conducting proper reforms in the times to have their NPLs rescheduled under the relaxed policy. The last The large amount of rescheduling capital market.“This is complex deadline was October 20.Under the indicates that banks will face market and it needs policy that should policy, defaulters got the opportunity liquidity crisis in the days ahead, be adopted very carefully.” Mustafa to regularise their loans for 10 years, said Salehuddin Ahmed, a former K. Mujeri, executive director at the including one year’s grace period, at governor of the central bank r Institute for Inclusive Finance and 15
National Economy DCCI Review December 2019 Development, said the symptoms The Bangladesh Bank made the percent in 2018. The BB, however, that the economy faced in 2019 point observations in its “quarterly” report. expressed its optimism that workers’ to “stagnation”. “Some headwind stemmed from remittance would help maintain the slowed down export and import current trend of the economic growth Stagnation is a situation in the growth due to shrinking global rate which has already crossed 8.0 economy where the output falls amid economic growth” may have a percent mark. rising inflation. The inflation has been rising but the official statistics shows negative impact on the country’s “But strong remittance inflow the gross domestic product growth economic expansion outlook for the can minimize some risks through at an 8.15 percent in the fiscal year financial year 2020, said the central buoyancy in the domestic activities,” 2019. bank publication. it added. Inflow of remittances The report reviewed the economic jumped around 23 percent in the first Dr Mujeri, who had served as chief development in the first quarter five months of the current fiscal year economist at the country’s central (July–September) and highlighted the over that of the same period of last bank, said that the banking sector has possible trend of the economy in the fiscal. suffered its worst period in 2019 due to large default loans.Dr Mujeri was upcoming days. The data relating to The central bank, however, cautioned critical of the high bank borrowing, different economic indicators are, about the rise in inflationary pressure. arguing that the banking sector does however, now available beyond the first quarter. “Although food inflation moderated not have adequate money to feed to 5.30 percent in September 2019 over Tk 5.23 trillion budget. Exports from Bangladesh declined by from 5.40 percent in June 2019 with 7.60 percent in the first five months of “Such type of borrowing by the the falling prices of rice and pulses, the current fiscal year while imports government is risk-free investment the possibility of the second-round dropped by 3.20 percent in July- for banks but it shrinks the investment effects arising from high prices of October. The central bank linked the opportunities for private sector some food items such as onion, reduction in external trade growth borrowers,” Dr Mujeri said.The fish and vegetables warrants close with the slowdown in global trade as country’s productive sector seems to attention,” it said. well as the economy. be facing a slump as raw materials The World Trade Organisation has The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics imports have declined notably in the already projected that global trade data showed that food inflation outgoing year. volume would shrink 2.60 percent in reached 6.41 percent in November According to the Bangladesh Garment this year. “Headline inflation is likely 2019 while the same shrank by 3.0 Manufacturers and Exporters’ percent in 2018. The International to face upside risks in the near term Association president Rubana Huq: Monetary Fund said global growth arising from crop loss resulted from “The year was not a pleasant one for this year “recorded its weakest pace” recent cyclonic storm ‘Bulbul’,” the export as growth had been faltering since the global financial crisis a central bank report added. throughout the year and had a nose decade ago. dive in the latter half.” The annual average inflation rate The IMF projected 3.0 percent was 5.49 percent in September “Slowdown in private sector credit growth of the global economy in which inched up to 5.56 percent in growth has also become a concern the outgoing year which was 3.60 November r as it hit a record nine-year low,” said Abul Kasem Khan, former president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry r Slower external trade may impact growth The slowdown in its external trade might hurt the country’s pace of economic growth in the current fiscal year. But a robust growth of workers’ remittance is likely to act as counterweight in this regard. 16
SAARC News DCCI Review December 2019 AFN 3-4b get out of use each year Each year, 3–4 billion afghanis, the Afghan currency or AFN, get out of use each year. Although the Afghan currency is made purely of cotton and has the capacity of being folded up to 3500 times, the wrong use of it by the residents makes it get out of use in a short time, the central bank said. “The Afghan money has the highest physical quality in the region, but annually 3 to 4 billion Afghanis get out of use because of the wrong use. To print an Afghani, 3.5 Afghanis will cost,” said Shafiqullah Shafiq, the central bank for not raising awareness from the central bank, in the past operating deputy of the central bank. among people regarding this issue. decade, more than 58 billion Afghanis Meanwhile, economists blame the This comes as based on the statistics got out of use. r Fuel price increases in Kabul Compared with the previous years, and non-banks incurred a loss of Nu performing loans with 26.97 percent, the fuel price increased by 20 1.19B for the same reasons. The loss followed by trade and commerce percent to 25 percent, said the Kabul in June this year was recorded at Nu with 24.03 percent and housing with residents. They want the government 1.49B. 12.28 percent. to obviate the people who sell at a This is according to the financial Compared with September 2018, high price. sector performance review of the non-performing loans in September This comes as the Afghanistan Chamber central bank, which also reveals increased by Nu 10.27b, with the of Commerce and Investment known service and tourism sector as the non-performing loans share of the as ACCI confirmed and added that the highest defaulter.The services and services and tourism increasing to main reason for this increase is the tourism sector recorded the highest 30.5 percent. high demand of people. non-performing loans, which is obvious considering the sprouting Non-performing loans are considered “We have invited the sellers to ACCI numbers of hotels and travel a bad loan, in which the debtor has and encouraged them to keep the businesses. not made the scheduled payments prices as low as possible because of the beyond 90 days. Some banks have low economy of our people,” said Jan Analysis on the loan classification even stopped providing loan in these Agha Noori the ACCI spokesperson. of the financial sector indicated sectors in urban and western region He added that this problem is that both loans and non-performing temporary and will be solved soon. since the number of hotels has grown loans have increased by Nu 20.78B Every year, in cold seasons, the price manifolds r and Nu 8.89B respectively. Records of fuel in Kabul rises r of sectoral non-performing loans indicate that service and tourism has Bhutan’s FDI sector registers Bhutan loses Nu 2.5b for NPL, the highest share with 31.12 percent, slower growth high interest expense followed by trade and commerce The country recorded a slight decline with 21.51 percent, production and The financial sector in Bhutan in the number of foreign direct manufacturing with 11.53 percent has suffered a loss of Nu 2.54B in investment projects coming in with and housing with 11.4 percent. September this year due to increased only 12 projects approved as of interest expense and non-performing Even in March, service and tourism November. In 2018, 16 foreign direct loans. In March 2019, both banks had the highest share of non- investment projects were approved. 17
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