Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank

Page created by Danielle Warner
 
CONTINUE READING
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
Phnom Penh         Siem Reap   Sihanoukville

Cambodia

                                               knightfrank.com/research
Real Estate
Highlights - 1st half 2020
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
E C O N O M I C S N A PS H OT

   ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Cambodia’s GDP growth is expected to decline sharply during 2020 but
forecast to bounce back in 2021

At the beginning of 2020, no one could             However, in contrast to developed
have predicted the turn of events                  countries, Cambodia’s economy is
                                                                                                  ROSS WHEBLE
that unfolded during the first half of             forecast to bounce back in 2021 (figure 2),
                                                                                                  Country Head
2020. According to the World Health                with GDP growth projections from the
Organisation (WHO), it was first made              World Bank, Asian Development Bank
aware of the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan,           and International Monetary Fund
China on 31 December 2019 and issued its           ranging between 5.7% to 8.5% for 2021.         “in contrast to developed countries,
first Disease Outbreak News report on 5                                                           Cambodia’s economy is forecast
January 2020.                                      This strong economic recovery will             to bounce back in 2021 (figure 2),
                                                   be underpinned by the fiscal and               with GDP growth projections from
Since that announcement, the number                monetary responses implemented by              the World Bank, Asian Development
of Covid-19 cases globally reached a               the Cambodian Government, namely: 1)           Bank and International Monetary
staggering 10.2 million as at the end of           scaling up of existing social protection       Fund ranging between 5.7% to 8.5%
June 2020 and was declared a global                schemes through cash transfers to poor         for 2021.”
pandemic by WHO on 11 March.                       and vulnerable households, 2) tax relief for
                                                   the tourism and manufacturing sectors,
In response to the outbreak, countries             3) retraining programmes for unemployed        Whilst the short term outlook
around the world went into various levels          workforce , 4) wage subsidies for              remains unclear, with the full
of lockdown bringing the global economy            suspended workers, 5) property ownership       effects of Covid-19 yet to be felt
to a virtual halt.                                 transfer tax exemption on properties           in the global and local economy,
                                                   valued below US$70,000, 6) capital             the medium term outlook for
This had a significant impact on                   injection for the Rural Development and        Cambodia remains positive,
Cambodia’s economic performance                    Agriculture Bank, 7) establishment of a        supported by Cambodia’s strategic
during H1 2020; according to the World             new SME bank, 8) improving ease of             location within ASEAN and
Bank, this was largely felt through three          doing business.                                Southeast Asia, its open door
key channels: tourism, exports and                                                                policy on foreign investment and
foreign direct investment.                         The monetary policies introduced by            growing domestic consumption.
                                                   the central bank included a reduction in
Cambodia has strong economic linkages              banks’ reserve requirement, postponing
with Countries that have been severely             the implementation of the Capital
impacted by Covid-19 (figure 1) which              Conservation Buffer, cutting interest
has decimated demand for garment                   rates on negotiable certificates of
exports to the US and the EU and brought           deposits and reducing the Liquidity
tourism to a standstill.                           Coverage Ratio.

Figure 1: Top 5 markets for exports, tourists & FDI origin
                                                                                                  Figure 2: 2020 GDP Growth Forecasts
                                                                                                       2020         2021
             Exports                         Tourism                       FDI Inflows
                                                                                                   %
                                                                                                  10
       US            26.80%          China         32.60%             China            40.00%
                                                                                                   8
                                                                  Hong Kong,                       6
      EU             25.00%         Vietnam        12.90%                               10.90%
                                                                   PRC SAR                         4

                                                                                                   2
     Japan             7.70%        Lao PDR         6.90%         Korea, Rep.           7.80%
                                                                                                   0

    Canada             6.20%        Thailand        6.20%          Singapore             7.10%    -2

                                                                                                  -4
      UK               6.10%       Korea, Rep.      4.90%             Japan             6.20%                 IMF          ADB           WB

                                                                                                  Source: International Monetary Fund,
     ROW             38.20%            ROW         36.50%             ROW              28.00%     Asian Development Bank, World Bank

Source: World Bank

                                                                          2
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H O F F I C E S E CTO R

                                                                             PHNOM PENH
Key findings
                                                                  OFFICE SECTOR
As at H1 2020, Phnom Penh’s
aggregate supply of office space           Average occupancy rate for both centrally-owned and strata-title
stood at 588,710 sq m of net lettable      offices across all grades declined to 77%, largely due to the unabated
area (NLA), a y-o-y increase of 27%        supply of new office. Surprisingly, there was a minimal impact from
from H1 2019.                              the Covid-19 pandemic despite severely impacting the global financial
                                           and real estate markets.
The first half of 2020 alone saw the
completion of 10 office buildings across   Supply and Demand                                           Four Grade C offices entered the supply
Grade B and C, contributing a total NLA                                                                during H1 2020 namely Rise Commercial
of 71,666 sq m for both centrally-owned    The cumulative supply of office space                       (2,100 sq m), OSK Building (7,000 sq m),
and strata-title offices.                  stood at 588,710 sq m of NLA following the                  Royal K Plaza (7,950 sq m) and The Link
                                           completion of 10 office buildings during                    Office III (1,440 sq m), all of which are
Conversely to the global office            the first half of 2020, eight of which are                  centrally-owned. There was no new stock for
trend, Phnom Penh’s office sector          centrally-owned buildings and two strata-                   Grade A office completed during this period.
appeared shielded from the full            title buildings.
adverse effects of the Covid-19                                                                        The continuous additions further
pandemic as witnessed in other             The cumulative supply of office space                       reinforced Grade B’s domination with
major cities.                              increased by 71,666 sq m to 588,710 sq                      51% of the overall supply, followed by
                                           m of NLA, an increase of 13.8% since                        Grade C with 40% and Grade A with 9%.
Although leasing activities reduced        the end of 2019 and a y-o-y increase of
with weakened occupier sentiment,          27% from 2019. The supply is expected                       Two strata titled office buildings
rentals for Phnom Penh’s centrally-        to more than double over next two years                     completed, namely The Legacy and
owned offices remained resilient and       with an additional 211,372 sq m NLA of                      KVBC Business Centre, contributing
stable across all grades, with no mass     centrally-owned offices and 447,798 sq m                    an NLA of 20,099 sq m whilst centrally
foreclosures or rent reliefs evident       NLA of strata-title offices, assuming all                   owned office building contributed 51,567
whilst average occupancy rates             projects complete as scheduled.                             sq m of NLA.
recessed to 77% largely due to the
incoming office supply.                    Of the new stock, 55,276 sq m NLA were                      An additional 124,997 sq m NLA of office
                                           of Grade B offices whilst the remaining                     space is expected to come online by the
With the increasing number of office       16,390 sq m were Grade C offices. Notable                   end of 2020.
completions, it is anticipated that        Grade B entries were TK Central (14,366
owners of strata-title offices will        sq m), The Helix Office (2,000 sq m) and                    By the end of 2020, most of the supply coming
likely be more flexible, especially in     The Legacy Tower (14,742 sq m). Other                       online will be strata-title offices comprising
terms of rental rates and minimum          additions were AMASS Central Tower                          87,689 sq m NLA whilst the remaining 337,308
tenure to secure a tenant for their        (7,511 sq m), The Point (9,200 sq m) and                    sq m will be centrally-retained offices, all
unit, thus creating a more competitive     KVBC Business Centre (5,357 sq m). TK                       of which are Grade A and B.
landscape against landlords of             Central (Toul Kork) and The Helix Office
centrally retained offices.                (7 Makara) are both centrally-owned                         Taking into account the 659,170 sq m NLA
                                           whilst The Legacy Tower and KVBC                            in the pipeline for future completion, the
                                           Business Centre are strata-title and                        cumulative office supply will snowball to
                                           located in Chroy Changva.                                   1,247,880 sq m post 2020. The current split
                                                                                                       of centrally-owned and strata-title offices

                                              Figure 3: Existing supply by District
                                                                                                       was 83% and 17%, respectively, however
                                                                                                       this is set to equalise post 2022, once all
                                                                                 Daun Penh 26%
                                                                                 7 Makara 19%          monitored projects complete as scheduled.
                                                                                 Chamkarmon 21%
                                                                                 Beung Keng Kong 16%
                                                                                                       The ratio of centrally-owned and strata-title
                                                                                 Toul Kork 7%
                                                                                                       offices, upon completion of all monitored
                                                                                 Chroy Changva 4%
                                                                                 Sen Sok 6%            projects will be 56% and 44%, respectively.
                                                                                 Mean Chey 1%
                                                                                                       89% of the future incoming supply is Grade
The Helix Office, Phnom Penh                 Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                       A whilst the remaining 11% is Grade B.

                                                                             3
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H O F F I C E S E CTO R

With the sizeable incoming supply, the         reduce overheads to alleviate cash flow                               for offices remained resilient and
office market is anticipated to self-          difficulties. Expansion and relocation                                relatively flat since the end of 2019.
correct as it finds its equilibrium in         plans of corporates were generally placed                             Grade A, B and C offices command
terms of demand and rental.                    on hold until the situation improves.                                 rentals ranging between US$30 to US$39
                                                                                                                     per sq m per month, US$21 to US$23 and
The wise, city centre location remained        However, unlike the global office market,                             US$14 to US$15, respectively (exclusive
the most densely populated location            where compassionate reliefs and tenants                               of service charges and tax).
with offices, accounting for 89% of the        foreclosures were widespread, Phnom
overall stock whilst the remaining 11%         Penh’s office sector appeared isolated                                The newly completed centrally-retained
is in suburban. Distribution within the        from the full brunt of this pandemic                                  Grade B and C offices are available for rent
city centre comprised Daun Penh (26%),         other than reduced leasing activities.                                ranging between US$16 to US$24 per sq m
Chamkarmon (21%), 7 Makara (19%), Boeung       The above notwithstanding, the office                                 per month (exclusive of service charges
Keng Kang (16%) and Toul Kork (7%).            sector outlook over the short to medium                               and tax) whilst the strata-title offices are
                                               term is still generally one of oversupply.                            available for sale starting from US$2,500
Chamkarmon to overtake Daun Penh with          Average occupancy rates for both                                      per sq m of the NLA.
majority office concentration in the future.   centrally-owned and strata title offices
                                               was recorded at 77%, a decline of 4.2                                 Office Sector Outlook
Although the CBD is located in Daun            percentage points since the end of 2019.
Penh, Chamkarmon is set to replace             Grade A and C centrally retained offices                              Co-working space and serviced offices
its dominant spot post 2022, upon              commanded an occupancy rate of 80%,                                   were the main components impacted
completion of all monitored projects           whilst Grade B declined to 75%, largely                               by the pandemic. Challenged to stay
as scheduled, comprising 26% of the            due to the sizeable new office supply and                             open, some operators temporarily closed
overall office location distribution.          weakened absorption rate.                                             as many people tried to avoid group
                                                                                                                     meetings and to practice social distancing.
The existing geographic office                 Owners of strata-title offices expected to                            However, operators are still optimistic on
distribution of suburban comprised             increase flexibility to entice tenants.                               the future outlook of the co-working and
Chroy Changva (4%), Sen Sok (6%) and                                                                                 serviced office market once the pandemic
Mean Chey (1%).                                Most MNCs halted expansion and                                        improves within the region.
                                               relocation plans in H1 2020 leading
The only new launch noted during the           to a standstill in transactional                                      Despite Cambodia having successfully
first half of 2020 was Central Capital         activity. Furthermore, with a sizable                                 avoided any major fallout from the
Tower, which is a Grade B strata-title         development pipeline, owners of                                       COVID-19 outbreak – no evident
office, contributing about 24,800 sq m of      strata-title offices will be pressured                                lockdowns and cases remained low,
NLA to our monitored basket.                   to increase flexibility with rental                                   its economy was still impacted by the
                                               and tenure, in order to compete with                                  economic fallout its neighbours and
Occupancy rates of centrally-owned             centrally-owned offices.                                              the region. This has resulted in firms
offices continued to face downward                                                                                   holding off decision making and re-
pressure whilst strata-title offices           Prices and Rental                                                     strategising their corporate real estate
recorded an uptick.                                                                                                  needs. This softer sentiment will put
                                               Despite the oversupply situation                                      pressure on rents, further compounding
Centrally-owned offices recorded an            which is further exacerbated by the                                   the impending supply hitting the market
average occupancy rate of 80.8%, a 5.3         unprecedented Covid-19 crisis, rentals                                in the coming years.
percentage points drop whilst strata-title
offices recorded an average occupancy
                                                  Figure 4: Cumulative Supply by Year and classification
rate of 59.3%, a 5.4 percentage points                 Grade A               Grade B         Grade C         Total
increase, since H2 2019.                          1,400,000
                                                  1,200,000
                                                  1,000,000
The unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic
                                                    800,000
severely hampered leasing activity
                                                    600,000
during the first half of 2020. The                  400,000

pandemic, which caused lockdowns                    400,000
                                                              -
and restricted movements globally has
                                                                                                                                                                  20 st
                                                                         09
                                                                   08

                                                                                                                                                     f
                                                                                  10

                                                                                                             14

                                                                                                                          16

                                                                                                                                              19
                                                                                                                                        18
                                                                                                       13
                                                                                              12

                                                                                                                    15

                                                                                                                                 7

                                                                                                                                                             f
                                                                                        11

                                                                                                                                                     20

                                                                                                                                                                       f
                                                                                                                                                           21

                                                                                                                                                                 Po
                                                                                                                                  1

                                                                                                                                                                    22

disrupted the global economy leaving
                                                                  20

                                                                        20

                                                                               20

                                                                                       20

                                                                                             20

                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                  20

                                                                                                                         20

                                                                                                                               20

                                                                                                                                      20

                                                                                                                                             20

                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                  Source: Knight Frank Research
many corporates no choice but to

                                                                              4
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H R E TA I L S E C T O R

                                                                PHNOM PENH
Key findings
                                                         RETAIL SECTOR
The cumulative retail space was
recorded at 351,046 sq m NLA as at      Following the announcement of Covid-19 pandemic by World Health
H1 2020, a y-o-y increase of 4% over    Organisation (WHO) as a “Global Pandemic” , consumer spending
the same period of 2019.                and business sentiment weakened significantly. Many workers chose
                                        to return and stay home until the situation improved, leading to a
Three new community malls officially    significant footfall decline during March and April of 2020.
opened their doors contributing a
total 11,792 sq m NLA to the overall    Supply and Demand                                         by a number of well populated Boreys.
retail supply; namely Samai Square,                                                               Extending to a NLA of 2,342 sq m,
TL Sky Mall and Khalandale Mall.        Supply in Phnom Penh increased by                         this community mall is the first in the
                                        11,792 sq metres NLA. The cumulative                      district to offer a modern retail format
During H2 2020, an additional 107,946   supply space stood at 351,046 sq m NLA                    and comprises food & beverage retail,
sq m NLA will enter the supply stream   as at H1 2020.                                            hypermarket and a cinema under the
of retail space, spread across seven                                                              operator of Prime Cineplex.
projects.                               Three additional community malls were
                                        opened during the first half of 2020                      During H2 2020, an additional 107,946
To contain the spread of the Covid-19   namely; Samai Square, TL Sky Mall and                     sq m of NLA of retail supply spread
outbreak, the Cambodian government      Khalandale Mall.                                          over eight projects is scheduled to come
has relentlessly advised the public                                                               online in Phnom Penh, if all monitored
against unnecessary travel and to       Samai Square opened during the first                      projects launched or under construction
apply social distancing measures.       quarter of 2020 and contributed 1,650                     are completed on schedule. Between 2021
Mall operators stepped up on            sq m to the monitored retail supply.                      and 2022, the cumulative supply will
hygiene measures which includes         This new community mall provides                          double with an additional 370,000 sq m
temperature screening and hand          additional diversified venues to the Toul                 NLA coming online.
sanitation at entrances.                Kork district populace. Khalandale Mall
                                        opened during the second quarter of                       Although the current ratio of retail space
Non-essential retailers in prime        2020, contributing 7,800 sq m NLA to the                  between the city centre and suburban
shopping malls were instructed by       overall supply. Khalandale Mall is directly               stood at 65:35, this distribution is set to
operators to temporarily reduce         opposite the existing Eden Garden                         transform as 68% of the new supply in
operating hours whilst some food &      community mall, providing additional                      the pipeline will be focused in suburban
beverage retailers have taken their     diversified venues in Daun Penh.                          districts whilst the remaining 32% is in
own initiative to cease operation or                                                              the city centre.
observe social distancing measures      TL Sky Mall is located in Porsenchey
by serving only take-away / delivery    District and is strategically surrounded
services.

                                          Figure 5: Phnom Penh Supply and Demand of Retail Space
                                             Supply (LHS)        Vacancy Rate (RHS)
                                            Sq. m.                                                                                          %
                                           1,00,000                                                                                        35

                                                                                                                                           30
                                           800,000
                                                                                                                                           25
                                           600,000                                                                                         20

                                                                                                                                           15
                                           400,000
                                                                                                                                           10
                                           200,000
                                                                                                                                           5

                                                 0                                                                                         0
                                                       2010    2011   2012 2013     2014 2015   2016 2017 2018   2019 2020f 2021f 2022f

                                            Source: Knight Frank Research
Khalandale Mall, Phnom Penh

                                                               5
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H R E TA I L S E C T O R

Sen Sok and 7 Makara districts still        between US$27.00 to US$30.00 per sq m                               began restructuring to strengthen their
comprise the most retail space in Phnom     of NLA (excluding service charges and                               online presence.
Penh with 26% and 24% of the overall        tax). However, rentals for secondary
share, respectively. This is followed by    grade malls remained unchanged at                                   Moving forward, shopping mall
Chamkarmon and Daun Penh representing       US$21.00 to US$29.00 per sq m of NLA.                               operators are expected to step up
21% and 15%, respectively. The remaining                                                                        on hygiene measures and sanitation
14% of retail space is spread over Boeung   The Covid-19 outbreak caused retail                                 practice with mall entrances guarded
Keng Kang, Toul Kork, Mean Chey,            footfall to suffer as the majority of                               for body temperature scan and hand
Porsenchey and Chbar Ampov.                 shoppers avoided crowded areas                                      sanitisation for incoming shoppers.
                                            and stayed home to conform to the                                   Additionally, technological innovations
The retail trading environment globally     government and WHO’s social distancing                              with a focus on reducing contact
has transformed subsequent to the           advice. The situation was further                                   between people will be a top priority.
Covid-19 pandemic, Cambodia included.       exacerbated when travel restrictions were
Since the announcement by the WHO,          implemented globally which reduced                                  The pandemic led to a ‘new norm’ for
the Cambodian government has taken          tourist arrivals tremendously.                                      the retail sector. The typical shopping
a number of measures necessary to                                                                               habits have transformed with visitations
curb the spread of this outbreak. Non-      With leasing activity put on hold, it                               to shopping malls and hypermarkets
essential businesses involving close        is anticipated that operators will be                               being more direct and purposeful rather
physical contact such as cinemas, KTVs,     providing additional incentives to entice                           than window shopping. Also, at times
pubs and bars were ordered to shut until    tenants to their shopping mall.                                     of uncertainty, consumer spending will
further notice.                                                                                                 also moderate as consumers will be
                                            As a result of the pandemic and reduced                             cautious especially on big ticket items,
As the outbreak worsened, governments       footfall, relief assistance was also                                leading to lower business turnover.
of other countries began implementing       provided on a case-by-case basis by                                 For non-essential items, retailers will
“movement control” or “lockdown”            landlords to existing tenants.                                      inevitably be faced with consolidation
or “circuit breaker” measures to curb                                                                           and closures as they re-allocate
the spread. These measures restrict all     Retail Sector Outlook                                               resources and operations. To prevent
citizens and anyone residing in those                                                                           major retail closures, landlords and
countries from non-essential travel for     Despite continuity of operations,                                   shopping mall operators will be expected
a fixed span of timeframe. Although         shopping malls were not operating at full                           to work hand-in-hand with existing
the retail footfall reduced enormously      capacity due to the government’s strict                             retail tenants to ensure sustainability
during the months of March and April,       social distancing measures. Cinemas                                 and maintain occupancy levels.
the retail sector in Phnom Penh was not     were shuttered whilst F&B retailers
as severely impacted compared with          found not adhering to the government                                With the supply expected to double up
its regional neighbours as Cambodia’s       operation guidelines were ordered to                                by 2022, shopping mall operators will
government restriction imposed were         close. Online retail appeared to be the                             be required to constantly adapt to the
minimal.                                    silver lining from this pandemic as it                              dynamic retail environment to remain
                                            became the preferred options, and many                              competitive and to entice tenants.
The overall occupancy rate slipped to       F&B consumers and fashion retailers
85%, a 0.3 percentage points drop as
compared with occupancy rates noted             Figure 6: Distribution of Existing Retail Space by District
during the end of 2019, underpinned by
strong F&B and entertainment retailer
take up rates noted in Samai Square and
                                                                                                              Daun Penh 15%         Chbar Ampov 3%
Khalandale Mall. TL Sky Mall however
                                                                                                              7 Makara 24%          Mean Chey 5%
is located in the suburban area and                                                                           Chamkarmon 21%        Chbar Ampov 3%
recorded an occupancy rate of 66%                                                                             Boeung Keng Kang 3%   Porsenchey 1%

during its first quarter of opening.                                                                          Toul Kork 2%
                                                                                                              Sen Sok 26%

Prices and Rental

Subsequent to the peak of the outbreak,
rentals for prime grade shopping malls          Source: Knight Frank Research
registered a slight decline, ranging

                                                                        6
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H H OT E L S E CTO R

                                                                         PHNOM PENH
Key findings
                                                                   HOTEL SECTOR
The global tourism industry was one
of the hardest hit sectors following        Hospitality sector left exposed as tourism industry took a plunge in
the outbreak of Covid-19. This led to a     incoming passenger arrivals stemming from travel restrictions and
64.6% year-on-year decline in tourist       lockdowns imposed by global governments to contain the Covid-19
arrivals to Cambodia during the first       global pandemic.
half of 2020.
                                            Supply                                                            of the overall market share) followed
Average hotel occupancy rates and ADRs                                                                        by Chamkarmon (22%), Boeung Keng
during H1 2020 plummeted by 33% and         Three hotels namely Anik Palace Hotel,                            Kang (11%), Chroy Changva (9%) and 7
25% respectively, over H1 2019.             Poulo Wai Hotel & Apartment and                                   Makara (8%). The remaining hotels are in
                                            Aurea Central Hotel, officially opened                            Toul Kork, Mean Chey and Porsenchey
The existing supply of hotels in Phnom      and contributed 392 keys to the overall                           districts.
Penh increased to 11,727 keys despite       Phnom Penh hotel supply during the
the temporary and permanent closure         first half of 2020.                                               Despite the new additions, the category
of many establishments.                                                                                       distribution remained the same with
                                            As at H1 2020, the cumulative supply                              Midscale & Economy (3-star) dominating
Until global travel restrictions are        of hotel rooms in Phnom Penh rose to                              the existing supply (50%). Luxury &
relaxed, the hospitality sector will        11,727 keys, an increment of 392 keys over                        Upper Upscale (5-star) and Upscale &
remain challenging and we will              three new hotels; Anik Palace Hotel (129                          Upper Midscale (4-star) hotels had equal
continue to see operators shift focus to    keys), Aurea Central Hotel (98 keys) and                          market share at 25%.
the growing domestic market.                Poulo Wai Hotel & Apartment (165 keys).
                                            Anik Palace Hotel is an Upscale & Upper                           Two hotels were added to our monitored
To cushion the impact, the Government       Midscale hotel whilst the other two are                           future hotel pipeline during the first
of Cambodia in collaboration with the       within the Midscale & Economy segment.                            half of 2020; Hotel Nikko Phnom Penh
National Bank of Cambodia launched a                                                                          (201 keys) and The Khom Hotel (130
series of monetary and fiscal policies to   In addition, Lumiere Hotel comprising 88                          keys), both of which are Upscale & Upper
assist tourism stakeholders including       keys, an Upscale & Upper Midscale hotel in                        Midscale (4-star).
tax exemption and increased liquidity       Daun Penh district was officially rebranded
for affected businesses.                    to Lyve Inc Hotel during Q2 2020.                                 Hotel Nikko Phnom Penh is located in
                                                                                                              Chamkarmon District whilst The Khom
                                            Daun Penh remained the district with                              Hotel, which is under the Autograph
                                            the highest concentration of hotels as it                         Collection of Marriott International
                                            encompasses the CBD and the Phnom                                 is located in Daun Penh District. Both
                                            Penh riverside tourist belt.                                      hotels are scheduled to complete and
                                            Daun Penh comprised 4,444 keys (38%                               commence operation by 2022.

                                               Figure 7 : Cumulative Hotel Supply by Year
                                                  Cumulative Supply              New Supply
                                                 No.
                                              Rooms
                                              22,000
                                              20,000
                                               18,000
                                              16,000
                                              14,000
                                               12,000
                                              10,000
                                               8,000
                                               6,000
                                               4,000
                                               2,000
                                                    0
                                                            2011    2012       2013   2014    2015   2016   2017   2018    2019   2020f   2021f   2022f    Post
                                                                                                                                                          2022f
                                               Source: Knight Frank Research
Lyve Inc Hotel, Phnom Penh

                                                                         7
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H H OT E L S E CTO R

Towards the end of 2020, four additional                                Figure 9 : Average ADR, Revpar & Occupancy Rate for Phnom Penh Hotels

hotels are expected to open their doors                                        ADR (LHS)        RevPar (LHS)      Occupancy (RHS)

if the projects complete as scheduled,                                  US$                                                                                                    %
                                                                        180                                                                                                    60
contributing an additional 556 keys to
                                                                        160
the overall supply, including the much                                                                                                                                         50
                                                                        140
anticipated Hyatt Regency which has
                                                                        120                                                                                                    40
completed construction work and is                                      100
                                                                                                                                                                               30
slated to open by H2 2020.                                               80
                                                                         60                                                                                                    20

Between 2021 and Post 2022,                                              40
                                                                                                                                                                               10
approximately 7,143 keys are expected                                    20
                                                                           -                                                                                                   0
to be added to the hotel supply, a large                                                 2016                  2017             2018             2019            2020
proportion of which is contributed by
                                                                         Source: Knight Frank Research/STR
Naga World 3 in Chamkarmon district.
If all monitored projects complete as
scheduled, the cumulative supply of                               and February ranging between 47% to                                  The international travel bans which are
hotels in Phnom Penh will rise to 19,426                          50%. As the outbreak worsened during                                 being implemented to varying degrees
keys representing an increase of 66% over                         March, and travel bans accelerated in                                across the globe, coupled with fear of the
the existing supply.                                              regional countries, occupancy rates                                  highly contagious Covid-19 virus, will
                                                                  declined to 20% by June 2020.                                        continue to hamper the performance of
Occupancy rate and average                                                                                                             the hotel sector over the short term.
room rates                                                        Due to the low occupancy level, the
                                                                  Ministry of Tourism reported that                                    To cushion the impact and prevent a
Visitor arrivals to Cambodia plunged                              approximately 324 hotels had requested                               further closures, the government has
64.6% year-on-year during the first half                          for temporary suspension nationwide,                                 worked hand-in-hand with the National
of 2020 as countries around the world                             at least until the situation improves.                               Bank of Cambodia and launched a series
battled with the Covid-19 pandemic.                               Between January and June 2020,                                       of monetary and fiscal policies to assist
                                                                  the ADR for Phnom Penh across all                                    tourism stakeholders including tax
The severe disruption of the tourism                              classifications declined sharply, by 37%                             exemptions and increased liquidity for
sector, which stemmed from global                                 as hotels which continued operations                                 affected businesses/hoteliers.
travel restrictions imposed by global                             either slashed their room rates or offered
governments, has directly impacted the                            extended monthly stays at low rates.                                 Additionally, travel bans on incoming
hospitality sector in Cambodia.                                                                                                        foreigners were lifted towards the end of
                                                                  Hotel sector outlook                                                 H1 2020 and replaced with mandatory
Average hotel occupancy rates and                                                                                                      requirements such as health certificates,
Average Daily Rates (ADR) during H1                               Whilst quarantine measures are still                                 insurance and medical/quarantine
2020 in Phnom Penh plummeted by                                   in place, tourist arrivals will remain                               deposits which became a barrier of entry
33% and 25%, respectively, over H1 2019.                          depressed and hoteliers will face                                    for foreign tourists.
The year began with relatively healthy                            decreasing RevPar over the short term
occupancy rates recorded during January                                                                                                The Covid-19 global pandemic
                                                                                                                                       continued to bring much uncertainty

  Figure 8: International Tourist Arrivals to Cambodia
                                                                                                                                       and the recovery period of the hotel
      2015            2016           2017           2018         2019             2020                                                 sector is unclear depending on the

    No. Tourists                                                                                                                       longevity of the outbreak or until
   800,000                                                                                                                             a viable vaccine is established and
   700,000                                                                                                                             global travel restrictions relaxed. The
  600,000                                                                                                                              hospitality sector is likely to remain
   500,000
                                                                                                                                       challenged and hoteliers are expected
  400,000
                                                                                                                                       to shift focus to the growing domestic
   300,000
                                                                                                                                       tourism market over the short term.
   200,000
   100,000
          0
                   Jan    Feb     Mar       Apr     May    Jun      Jul         Aug      Sep     Oct     Nov      Dec

   Source: Tourism Statistics Department, Ministry of Tourism

                                                                                                8
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H S E R V I C E D A PA R T M E N T S E C T O R

                                                                          PHNOM PENH
Key findings
                                                SERVICED APARTMENT
                                                                                        SECTOR
Two new serviced apartments namely
Lyzones Tower and 85 SOHO Premium
Serviced Residences, contributed
192 units to the cumulative serviced          Average occupancy rate of serviced apartments contracted to 61%, a
apartment supply in Phnom Penh.               y-o-y decrease of 18 percentage points over the same period during
                                              2019. Although advertised asking rates remained stable, landlords
Knight Frank’s basket was updated with        increased flexibility with tenancy terms and lengths of stay
a number of newly identified serviced
apartment taking the cumulative supply
of serviced apartments in Phnom Penh          Supply                                                              Additional units were also added to the
to 6,577 units spread across 167 blocks.                                                                          Mid-tier segment with the completion of
                                              Two new serviced apartments within                                  85 SOHO Premium Serviced Residences.
Mid-tier serviced apartments                  the High-end and Mid-tier segments                                  Located within part of the Axis
dominated the existing supply with            contributed 192 units to the overall                                condominium development, this block
a slight uptick of the overall share to       supply during H1 2020.                                              contributed 108 units to Sen Sok district.
57%, followed by High-end (23%) and
Affordable (21%) units.                       In addition, Knight Frank’s basket has                              Despite the new entries spread across
                                              been updated with four newly identified                             other districts, Boeung Keng Kang
Travel restrictions implemented by            projects, taking the total existing serviced                        District still commanded the largest
governments to contain the Covid-19           apartment supply to 6,577 units spread                              market share at 34% of the overall supply,
global pandemic outbreak have limited         across 167 projects.                                                followed by Chamkarmon (17%), Daun
accessibility of incoming foreigners                                                                              Penh (17%), Toul Kork (11%), 7 Makara
and expatriates, thus causing                 During the first half of 2020, the operator                         (10%), Chroy Chongva (6%), Sen Sok (4%)
downwards pressure on the serviced            of Lumiere Residence, a High-end                                    and Mean Chey (1%).
apartment sector occupancy rates as           serviced apartment comprising 166 units
it contracted to 61%; a y-o-y decrease        in 7 Makara District, was replaced with a                           Approximately 56% of the overall supply
of 18 percentage points over the same         new operator and rebranded to Lyve Inc                              is categorised as Mid-tier whilst the
period during 2019.                           Hotel & Residence.                                                  remaining 23% is High-end and 21% is
                                                                                                                  Affordable. The city centre continues to
                                              The newly completed High-end serviced                               be the sought-after location for serviced
                                              apartment, Lyzones Tower, contributed                               apartments. Approximately 89% of the
                                              84 units to Boeung Keng Kang District.                              existing supply is located within city
                                                                                                                  centre districts whilst 11% are located in
                                                                                                                  suburban districts.

                                                  Figure 10: Cumulative Supply of Serviced Apartments (2009 - 2020f)
                                                     Existing Supply      New/Added Supply

                                                   No. Units
                                                 9,000
                                                 8,000
                                                  7,000
                                                  6,000
                                                  5,000
                                                  4,000
                                                  3,000
                                                  2,000

                                                  1,000
                                                      0
                                                             2009      2010   2011    2012    2013    2014     2015    2016   2017   2018   2019   2020f   2021f

                                                  Source: Knight Frank Research
Lyzones Tower, Phnom Penh

                                                                          9
Cambodia Real Estate Phnom Penh Siem Reap - Knight Frank
P H N O M P E N H S E R V I C E D A PA R T M E N T S E C T O R

An additional 1,371 serviced apartments                       Occupancy                                                           Serviced Apartment
have been identified and will be added                                                                                            Sector Outlook
to the supply over the next two years,                        The overall occupancy rate was
reflecting an increase of 21%, assuming                       impacted by the onset of Covid-19,                                  The full impact of Covid-19 on the serviced
all identified projects complete as                           contracting to 61%, a y-o-y decrease                                apartment sector is largely unknown as it
scheduled.                                                    of 18 percentage points over the same                               will depend on the scale of the outbreak
                                                              period of 2019.                                                     and also government travel restrictions.
Rental
                                                              Demand for serviced apartments                                      The increased supply of condominiums
Asking rentals for serviced apartments                        is mainly driven by tourists and                                    and serviced apartments, the repatriation
remained resilient despite the increased                      expatriates. The bleak situation due                                of expatriates stemming from the Covid-19
competition from condominiums and                             to the Covid-19 pandemic forced                                     pandemic and the entries of hotels in
hotels.                                                       governments around the world                                        the city offering extended stay have all
                                                              to impose travel restrictions and                                   adversely impacted occupancy rates for
The significant increase in the supply                        lockdowns to contain the spread of the                              serviced apartments.
of new condominiums has intensified                           outbreak.
competition among serviced apartment                                                                                              Towards the end of the first half of
operators. In addition, the lack of                           The outbreak caused many expatriates                                2020 the government lifted travel bans
tourists due to Covid-19 and global                           in Cambodia to return to their                                      that were imposed on six countries
travel restrictions has pressured hotel                       countries of origin via repatriation                                and also relaxed entry requirements
operators to offering long-term stay at                       flights and also prevented incoming                                 into the Kingdom. Despite the above
heavily discounted rates.                                     foreign workers. This led to the average                            actions, incoming tourist arrivals are
                                                              occupancy rate falling to 61% during the                            expected to remain depressed which will
Despite the increased competition,                            first half of 2020.                                                 negatively impact on demand for serviced
advertised asking rentals remained                                                                                                apartments over the short term.
resilient with High-end rents averaging                       By segment, High-end apartments were
US$21 per sq m over the net lettable area,                    impacted the most, with the average                                 However, there are now some green shoots
Mid-tier rents averaging US$13 per sq                         occupancy rate recorded at 42% whilst                               emerging, as businesses that temporarily
m and Affordable rents averaging US$7                         Mid-tier and Affordable units recorded                              closed begin to slowly re-open, enticing
per sq m. However, serviced apartment                         occupancy rates of 68% and 74%                                      foreign business owners back to Cambodia,
landlords and operators were more                             respectively.                                                       and office expansions of MNCs that were
open to negotiation in terms of rentals                                                                                           put on hold are becoming active again.
and shorter tenancy duration. Other                           Location-wise, Chamkarmon, Boeung
incentives offered were free months stay                      Keng Kang, Daun Penh and Toul Kork                                  The short term outlook of the serviced
with yearly tenancy, free cleaning, free                      districts all recorded the highest                                  apartment sector remains cautious. In
internet, free cable TV and so on.                            occupancy rates averaging between 61%                               general, rentals and occupancy rates will
                                                              to 63% whilst 7 Makara, Chroy Changva                               remain under pressure if the longevity of
                                                              and Sen Sok were slightly lower ranging                             this outbreak is prolonged which could
                                                              between 51% to 58%.                                                 lead to acquisition opportunities.
                                           Figure 16: Cumalative Supply of Land Housing Units (2009-2021f)

  Figure 11: Existing supply by District                          Figure 12: Monthly asking rents for high-end units by Quarter
     Chamkarmon 18%                7 Makara 10%                       1Bed          2Bed          3Bed
     Boeung Keng Kang 34%          Daun Penh 17%                   US$
     Toul Kork 10%                 Chroy Changva 6%               4,000
     Sen Sok 4%                    Mean Chey 1%
                                                                  3,500

                                                                  3,000

                                                                  2,500

                                                                  2,000

                                                                 15,000

                                                                  1,000
                                                                         Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

  Source: Knight Frank Research                                   Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                         10
P H N O M P E N H C O N D O M I N I U M S E CTO R

                                                                  PHNOM PENH
Key findings
                                          CONDOMINIUM SECTOR
The cumulative supply of
condominiums was recorded at              Although demand for condominiums weakened with the onset of the
21,935 units across 77 condominium        Covid-19 global pandemic, new launches and prices remained resilient
developments as at the end of H1          and there was a noticeable increase in the number of domestic buyers
2020. There were six new project
completions.
                                          Supply and Demand                                    increasingly popular residential district,
After reconfiguration of Knight Frank’s                                                        Chroy Changva.
condominium classification , the          The first half of 2020 saw the completion
current ratio of High-end and Mid-tier    of six condominiums (2,699 units) and                UK Condo is within Toul Kork District
units in the city stood at 65% and 35%,   10 new off-plan launches (3,712 units).              and Sky Tree is within Russey Keo
respectively.                                                                                  District, both of which are established
                                          Amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, six new                residential districts. The remaining new
Growing domestic demand for               condominiums were completed during the               completions are spread across Sen Sok
condominiums helped to off-set            first half of the year, lifting the cumulative       and Mean Chey districts.
the declining demand from foreign         condominium supply in Phnom Penh up
investors subsequent to the Covid-19      to 21,935 units (including the balance units         Although Chamkarmon remains the
outbreak.                                 within Star City which has been completed)           district with highest concentration of
                                          spread across 77 projects; a y-o-y growth of         condominiums, the latest incoming new
Developers and market players             25% from H1 2019.                                    entries spread across various districts
remained unwavering during these                                                               have reduced its overall share to 33%,
testing times with 10 new off-plan        To reflect the overall increase in                   followed by Sen Sok (19%), 7 Makara (12%)
condominium projects launched during      residential prices in Phnom Penh, Knight             and Chroy Changva (11%). The remaining
the first half of the year                Frank’s condominium classification                   districts Boeung keng Kang, Toul Kork,
                                          has been reconfigured; the Affordable                Daun Penh, Chbar Ampov, Russey Keo
To cushion the impact of Covid-19 and     segment now comprises units priced                   and Mean Chey all recorded less than
stimulate investment activities, the      up to US$1,000 per square metre of net               10% share each.
Government of Cambodia exempted           saleable area (NLA), Mid-tier units are
transfer taxes on property valued below   priced between US$1,001 to US$2,500 per              Despite the economic turbulence caused
US$70,000 until the end of 2020.          square metre of NLA. Properties selling              by the outbreak of Covid-19 during Q1
                                          above US$2,500 per square metre of NLA               2020, developers remained unwavering
                                          are categorised as High-end.                         and 10 new off-plan condominium
                                                                                               launches were recorded.
                                          The ratio of existing condominium supply
                                          now stood at 65:35 for Mid-tier and High-            Eight of the launched projects are Mid-
                                          end, respectively. To-date, there are still          tier namely Leedon Heights (1,190 units),
                                          no existing Affordable units.                        Garden Residency 2 (369 units), Phnom
                                                                                               Penh Galaxy Garden (1,140 units), Parc 21
                                          The six completed Mid-tier                           Residence (132 units), AKJ Bright Pearl
                                          condominiums were UK Condo (224                      (286 units), Grand Central (800 units),
                                          units), Highland Condominium (213                    The Golden World (864 units) and Grand
                                          units), Mekong View Tower 6 (262 units),             Condo 7 (142 units).
                                          Paramount Residence (400 units), Sky
                                          Tree (268 units) and Axis Residence (432             The only two High-end condominiums
                                          units). Additionally, the remaining 800              launched are namely Go Home Residence
                                          units of the 1,600 units in Star City have           (448 units) and Le Conde’ BKK1 (1,040 units).
                                          also been completed this quarter.
                                                                                               Despite the weakening global economic
                                          Both Mekong View Tower 6 and Highland                outlook which caused many corporates
Sky Tree, Phnom Penh                      Condominium are located within the                   and businesses to reduce non-essential

                                                                  11
P H N O M P E N H C O N D O M I N I U M S E CTO R

employees and implement salary                                                          largest market share of condominiums                                 Meanwhile, Le Conde’ BKK1 is sited in
reductions, the condominium sector                                                      at 20%, followed by Sen Sok (18%), Chroy                             Boeung Keng Kang District. Comprising
showed little sign of a setback, with                                                   Changva (15%), Mean Chey (12%) and                                   1,040 units, it is a large scale High-end
on-going projects continuing as                                                         Toul Kork (11%).                                                     project positioned as being the country’s
scheduled. Over the next three years, if                                                                                                                     first smart home project with high-tech
all the monitored launched projects are                                                 Inevitably, the Covid-19 pandemic                                    voice recognition technology from China
completed as scheduled, the cumulative                                                  took a toll on the sales rate of both                                tech giant, Xiaomi. Developed by Wangfu
supply of condominiums in Phnom                                                         High-end and Mid-tier condominiums.                                  Guo Ji Property Development, the prices
Penh is projected to surge up to 75,447                                                 The restrictions of international                                    start from US$2,800 per square meter
units post 2023 which is equivalent to a                                                travel directly impacted demand for                                  over the net saleable area.
244% growth if compared to the current                                                  condominiums. The average sales rate
number.                                                                                 of monitored projects moderated to 5%,                               Condominium Sector Outlook
                                                                                        from 7% during H2 2019 and 15% during
The worsening outbreak of the Covid-19                                                  H1 2019.                                                             The travel restrictions under the “new
pandemic has adversely impacted the                                                                                                                          normal” raises a concern for developers as
financial, manufacturing, logistics,                                                    Prices and Rental                                                    the Cambodian condominium market is
automobile, tourism and hospitality                                                                                                                          currently underpinned by foreign demand.
sectors. This has led to an economic                                                    Average selling price continued rising
uncertainty and an increase in                                                          relentlessly despite the onset of Covid-19                           The condominium sector is clouded with
unemployment in many countries as                                                       pandemic; corrections yet to be evident.                             uncertainty as the impact of the Covid-19
corporates and businesses consolidate                                                                                                                        pandemic continues to unfold. However,
and look to reduce operational                                                          Although price corrections were still                                although sales rates began to show signs
expenditure.                                                                            not evident, a number of developers                                  of distress, price corrections were still not
                                                                                        began offering flash discounts to                                    evident, save as for temporary discounts,
As the condominium market is still                                                      entice purchasers and to improve sales                               rebates and free gifts offered by
mainly driven by foreign purchasers and                                                 rates. However, the average selling                                  developers as incentives for new buyers
investors, the magnitude of impact is                                                   price of new launches as advertised by
yet to be determined, depending on the                                                  developers during the first half of 2020                             The global economic uncertainty has
longevity of the outbreak. In addition,                                                 was recorded at US$2,138 per sq m over                               reduced offshore purchases as investors
buyers are adopting a wait-and-see                                                      the net saleable area; a 15% increase over                           adopt a wait-and-see approach and
approach towards investments and home                                                   the second half of 2019.                                             International travel restrictions implemented
purchases due to the uncertain economic                                                                                                                      have further exacerbated the situation by
repercussions post Covid-19.                                                            Notable projects included Leedon                                     obstructing incoming expatriates to the
                                                                                        Heights, located in Sen Sok and                                      country, leading to an even more reduced
Despite surging land prices,                                                            comprising 1,190 condominiums,                                       demand for condominiums.
condominiums in city centre locations                                                   and Go Home Residence, a High-end
are more sought-after and preferred,                                                    condominium in Toul Kork. It is a                                    The softening of investment activity
encouraging developers to continue                                                      36-storey residential project developed                              and concerns over surplus supply in the
selling projects in Chamkarmon District.                                                by NEC Development Corporation                                       pipeline will only weigh down investors
Over the next three years, taking into                                                  comprising 448 units and priced on                                   sentiment and the general outlook for
account all newly launched and on-going                                                 average at US$2,635 per sq m over the net                            the condominium sector is cautious,
projects, Chamkarmon will retain the                                                    saleable area.                                                       subject to the right product positioning,
                                                                                                                                                             location and price range.

  Figure 13: Sales of Newly Launched Condominium units by Quarter                                                        Figure 14: Cumulative Supply of Condominium units (2009-Post2023)
                                                      Average Price
     Unites Launched            Unites Sold                                                                                Existing         Incoming Supply
                                                      USD per sq m
 10,000                                                                                                  3,000           80,000
   9,000
                                                                                                         2,500
                                                                                                                         70,000
   8,000
                                                                                                                         60,000
   7,000
                                                                                                         2,000
   6,000                                                                                                                 50,000
   5,000                                                                                                 1,500           40,000
  4,000
                                                                                                         1,000
                                                                                                                         30,000
   3,000
   2,000
                                                                                                                         20,000
                                                                                                         500
   1,000                                                                                                                 10,000
      0                                                                                                  0                    -
            Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4   Q1   Q2
                                                                                                                                  09

                                                                                                                                       10

                                                                                                                                              11

                                                                                                                                                   12

                                                                                                                                                        13

                                                                                                                                                             14

                                                                                                                                                                  15

                                                                                                                                                                       16

                                                                                                                                                                            17

                                                                                                                                                                                 18

                                                                                                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                                                                                                           20

                                                                                                                                                                                                 f

                                                                                                                                                                                                      f

                                                                                                                                                                                                           f

                                                                                                                                                                                                                f

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         f

           2017   2017   2017   2017   2018   2018   2018   2018   2019   2019   2019   2019 2020 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                20

                                                                                                                                                                                                     21

                                                                                                                                                                                                          22

                                                                                                                                                                                                               23

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     23
                                                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                                                                  20
                                                                                                                                                        20

                                                                                                                                                                                 20
                                                                                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                                  20

                                                                                                                                                                                                     20

                                                                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                                                               20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20
                                                                                                                                                                                                20

  Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                          Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    st
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Po

                                                                                                                 12
P H N O M P E N H L A N D E D H O U S I N G S E CTO R

                                                                                PHNOM PENH
Key findings
                                             LANDED HOUSING SECTOR
12 new housing projects contributed
3,369 units to the monitored existing        Consumer spending and home buyer sentiment was curtailed during
supply, taking the cumulative supply to      the first half of 2020 resulting in a significant drop in the sales rate of
59,301 units as at the end of H1 2020.       new launches

11 off-plan housing projects were            Supply and Demand                                        All three landed housing segments
launched during the first half of 2020,                                                               inched forward in tandem. Mid-tier
dominated by Chip Mong Group. Grand          The rapid growth of landed housing supply                housing still accounted for the majority
Phnom Penh, which was sold to Chip           continued unabated despite the Covid-19                  of supply with 30,221 units (51%),
Mong Land towards the end of 2019,           outbreak; cumulative existing stock stood                followed by High-end with 22,348 units
launched a new phase in May 2020.            at 59,301 units as at the end of H1 2020.                (38%) whilst the remaining 6,732 units
                                                                                                      (11%) were Affordable.
The total cumulative supply of landed        Whilst the Covid-19 pandemic has
houses in Phnom Penh is projected            negatively impacted the global economy,                  Location-wise, Sen Sok remained the
to increase to 78,066 if all projects        including the real estate sector, it did not             dominant district with the most landed
complete as scheduled.                       deter developers from launching 11 new off-              houses (25% of the overall supply),
                                             plan housing projects in Phnom Penh.                     followed by Dangkor (13%), Russey Keo
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused                                                                      (12%), Kamboul (11%), Mean Chey (10%),
global economic uncertainty and toned        Although there were supply-side disruptions              Chbar Ampov (8%), Chroy Changva
down consumer spending, specifically on      on the import of construction materials in               (7%), Porsenchey (7%), Prek Pnov (3%).
big ticket items. Thus, sales rates of new   Cambodia, 12 new housing projects were                   Chamkarmon, Daun Penh and Toul Kork
launches were placed under pressure,         completed, delivering 3,369 units to the                 made up the remaining 4%.
declining to 16% during H1 2020.             existing stock. A few notable completions
                                             were The Park Land 598 (360 units), The                  The total future supply of landed housing
The total cumulative supply of landed        Park Land 271 (316 units), The Woods, a                  in Phnom Penh scheduled for completion
housing in Phnom Penh is projected to        Natha Residence (12 units) Borey Vimean                  between the second half of 2020 and
increase to 78,066 units by post 2022.       Phnom Penh P8 (600 units), Elite Town 3                  post 2022 was recorded at 18,765 units
                                             (147 units), Mekong Royal Phase 2 (172 units)            across 59 developments as at the end of
Sen Sok is the most landed housing           and New World Kour Srov (870 units).                     H1 2020. The majority (72%) of the total
concentrated district with 25% of the                                                                 future supply comprises units within the
total supply on the market.                  With the new additions during H1 2020,                   Mid-tier category, followed by Affordable
                                             the existing supply of landed housing was                (24%); the remaining units (4%) are
                                             recorded at 59,301 units spread across 154               within the High-End category.
                                             developments. Of the overall supply, 96%
                                             (57,009 units) are located in suburban areas             Due to higher land costs in the city centre,
                                             whilst the remaining 4% (2,292 units) are                with only a small percentage of the
                                             within the city centre.                                  population being able to afford the higher
                                                                                                      end projects that have been launched in

                                                 Figure 15: Distribution of Existing Landed Housing
                                                                                                      Phnom Penh, all of the future incoming
                                                 Supply by District                                   housing projects are located in suburban
                                                                                                      areas. Dangkor comprises most of the
                                                                                                      incoming stock with 27%, followed by
                                                                                 Chamkarmon 2%        Kamboul with 16%, Mean Chey with 14%
                                                                                 Daun Penh 1%
                                                                                 Toul Kork 1%         and Chbar Ampov with 11%. The rest are
                                                                                 Sen Sok 25%
                                                                                 Russey Keo 12%
                                                                                                      distributed in Sen Sok, Russey Keo, Chroy
                                                                                 Chroy Changva 7%     Changva, Prek Pnov and Porsenchey.
                                                                                 Chbar Ampov 8%
                                                                                 Mean Chey 10%
                                                                                 Porsenchey 7%
                                                                                 Prek Pnov 3%
                                                                                                      Year 2020 started off robustly with eight
                                                                                 Dangkor 13%          project launches, mostly within the Mid-
                                                Source: Knight Frank Research    Kamboul 11%
The Woods, a Natha Residence, Phnom Penh
                                                                                                      tier segment. Notable launches during

                                                                            13
P H N O M P E N H L A N D E D H O U S I N G S E CTO R

the first quarter of 2020 included Chip                                                  consumption dropped to near record lows,                                    The repercussions of the Covid-19
Mong 50M (435 units), Borey Chea Ry The                                                  and purchases of big ticket items were                                      pandemic have been felt globally, and
Green Ville (600 units), Chancastle (119                                                 placed on hold which tempered home-                                         the short term outlook remains cloudy.
units), Borey CT Villa (18 units) and Borey                                              buying momentum. The overall sales rate                                     Unemployment has risen in Cambodia
Galaxy 11 (150 units).                                                                   for landed housing dipped down to 16%,                                      as many hotels, restaurants and garment
                                                                                         from 34% recorded during H2 2019.                                           factories temporarily or permanently
However, towards the end of the first                                                                                                                                closed their doors and Cambodia’s GDP
quarter, after the announcement by the                                                   Prices and Rental                                                           growth is expected to contract during
World Health Organisation (WHO) of                                                                                                                                   2020 compared with growth of 7%
Covid-19 as a global pandemic, lockdowns                                                 Average selling price across all segments                                   recorded in 2019.
and movement controls circled from                                                       continued accelerating, uplifting from
country to country as local governments                                                  $830 during H2 2019 to $1,131 per sq metre                                  During H1 2020, consumer spending
implemented measure to contain the                                                       over the gross floor area during H1 2020.                                   and consumption declined significantly
outbreak. The global financial, real                                                                                                                                 subsequent to the Covid-19 outbreak,
estate, aviation, hospitality, logistics and                                             Although the repercussions of the                                           particularly for big ticket items.
manufacturing sectors were severely                                                      Covid-19 pandemic impacted all real                                         The market uncertainty and rising
impacted as global mobility stagnated.                                                   estate sectors, landed housing remained                                     unemployment led to a subdued home
Investment activities plummeted and                                                      a sought-after purchase, whether for                                        buyers sentiment. Launches during
unemployment rose, leading to a decline                                                  owner occupation or investment, driven                                      end of March and April were noted
in home-buying sentiment. Only three new                                                 by the strong domestic market.                                              to achieve poor sales rate, however,
launches were recorded during the second                                                                                                                             developers remained optimistic and
quarter of 2020; Borey Cheam Tech (170                                                   The landed housing sector saw a 36%                                         began providing additional discounts
units), Borey Uptown (127 units) and Chip                                                uplift in average pricing, largely due                                      and attractive payment plans to entice
Mong Grand Phnom Penh City (176 units).                                                  to additional launches by Chip Mong                                         prospective home buyers.
                                                                                         Land and Peng Huoth, both of which are
Chip Mong Grand Phnom Penh City                                                          prestigious and well-known developers                                       Although the home-buying momentum
was formerly owned by Grand Phnom                                                        with units priced $1,000 per square meter                                   was temporarily dampened during
Penh International City (GPPIC), a                                                       onwards. With a generally low household                                     the first half of 2020, there remains a
joint venture between LYP Group and                                                      debt ratio and healthy gearing ratio by                                     severe shortage of landed housing when
Ciputra Group. It is an on-going mixed                                                   most home owners, price corrections are                                     compared with the growing household
development currently comprising an                                                      unlikely over the shorter term outlook                                      formation rate.
18-hole golf course surrounded by landed                                                 as demand for landed housing will
housing on 250-hectares of land. Upon                                                    be continuously underpinned by the                                          Due to Cambodia’s restriction on
acquisition, Chip Mong launched its new                                                  domestic market.                                                            foreigners owning landed properties, the
phase which includes landed housing                                                                                                                                  landed housing sector is driven mainly
and a Central Park, with its ground                                                      Landed Housing Sector                                                       by the domestic market which is more
breaking commenced in May 2020.                                                          Outlook                                                                     sustainable over the medium to long
                                                                                                                                                                     term. The widely proclaimed V-Shaped
The global economic fallout caused                                                       Optimism observed among house builders                                      Recovery is expected and applicable to
by the Covid-19 pandemic and rising                                                      and developers; new projects continuously                                   the landed housing sector and the sector
unemployment have impacted all real                                                      launched and on-going projects to                                           remains one of continued optimism.
estate sectors. Consumer spending and                                                    complete as scheduled.

   Figure 16: Cumulative Supply of Landed Housing Units (2009-2021f)                                                      Figure 17: Existing Supply by Location and Classification
     Existing Supply                 Incoming Supply                                                                          Affordable               Mid-tier              High-end
                                                                                                                          10,000
   9,000
                                                                                                                          9,000
   8,000
                                                                                                                          8,000
   7,000                                                                                                                  7,000
   6,000                                                                                                                  6,000
                                                                                                                          5,000
   5,000
                                                                                                                          4,000
   4,000
                                                                                                                          3,000
   3,000                                                                                                                  2,000
   2,000                                                                                                                  1,000

   1,000                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                    ng                                                                                                        r    l
                                                                                                                                  eu g         on       ara        nh       Ko
                                                                                                                                                                               rk       ok        eo
                                                                                                                                                                                                         ng
                                                                                                                                                                                                            va     v
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 po Che
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        y        y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               he Pno
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      v
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ko   ou
                                                                                                                                Bo Kan     arm       ak         Pe       ul          nS        yK     ha       Am ean       nc           ng amb
      0                                                                                                                                           7M         un                   Se       sse                           rse Pre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   k  Da
                                                                                                                                        mk                Da          To                Ru         y C hbar           Po
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             K
                                                                                                                                 ng Cha                                                         ro               M
           2009 2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020 2020f 2021f 2022f Post              Ke                                                            Ch        C
                                                                                                             2022
  Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                           Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                                                    14
SIEM REAP H1 2020 REVIEW

                            SIEM REAP H1 2020 REVIEW

Overview                                                   entertainment centres and drinking           easing international tourist restrictions
                                                           establishments were ordered to cease         by lifting the initial ban on foreigners
Siem Reap is major tourism city in                         operations until further notice forcing      from a number of countries with high
Southeast Asia and is home to the world-                   many retailers and shops to shutter.         level of infection. The ban was then
famous Angkor Archaeological Park. This                                                                 replaced with new measures which
has underpinned steady growth in tourist                   The drop in international tourist arrivals   required all incoming international
arrivals during the past five years, with                  placed significant pressure on hotel         tourists to deposit US$3,000 upon arrival
Siem Reap consistently welcoming over 2                    occupancy rates in the city, forcing         to cover expenses for compulsory hotel
million international tourists annually.                   many hotels and guesthouses to begin         quarantine, food, medical and Covid-19
                                                           reducing operational expenses by             tests and treatments along with a
Tourism remains the main driver of                         cutting workforces and salaries, whilst      compulsory medical insurance certificate
the economy in Siem Reap Province,                         many suspended operation, including a        with a minimum coverage of US$50,000.
supporting many local businesses.                          number of international hotel chains.
However, towards the end of 2019, the                                                                   Looking at the residential sector, the
number of international tourists arrivals                  Indirectly, the absence of international     impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
began on a downward trajectory. The                        tourists in Siem Reap has also impacted      moderated demand during H1 2020,
worsening of the Covid-19 pandemic                         the retail sector with much reduced          however, developer selling prices
in early March 2020 decimated tourist                      footfall, causing many businesses to         remained resilient, albeit with discounts
arrivals to Siem Reap which severely                       temporarily or permanently close. On         offered to prospective purchasers.
impacted the local economy.                                top of that, guidelines to restrict the      Despite the slowdown, developers
                                                           number of customers, compliance to           remained upbeat on the residential
The spread of this highly contagious                       social distancing measures and generally     sector. One notable launch during the
outbreak forced many governments                           the public’s fear of contracting the virus   first half of 2020 was Rose Apple Square,
around the world to began implementing                     further worsened retail footfall.            a mixed development comprising
lockdowns and restricting incoming and                                                                  condominiums, co-living apartments,
outgoing tourists.                                         Although the global restrictions began       strata-title offices and co-working spaces.
                                                           easing towards the end of H1 2020,
Although Cambodia only underwent                           international tourism activities remained    Other on-going projects in the pipeline
a brief lockdown period, restricting                       subdued with the global economic outlook     which were unaffected include The Sky
domestic provincial travel in April, the                   uncertain amidst rising job losses.          Park, ST Premier Residence, Bakorng
lack of international tourists and the                                                                  Village, Borey Tourism City, SSC
unprecedented global disruption sent the                   The latest data from Ministry of             Residence, Angkor Grace and various other
tourism and hospitality sector in Siem                     Tourism revealed that the number of          smaller-scaled landed housing projects.
Reap grinding to a halt leaving most of                    international tourists visiting Angkor.      All the listed projects were scheduled for
its tourist attractions and entertainment                                                               completion between H2 2020 and 2022.
streets eerily empty.                                      Archaeological Park during the first half
                                                           of 2020 declined by 68% compared with        Evidently, there are various on-going
Under the government’s guideline                           the same period in 2019. Towards the         infrastructure improvements in and
to contain the outbreak, all schools,                      end of H1 2020, the government began         around Siem Reap, notably the new
                                                                                                        international airport, new outer ring

   Figure 18: Siem Reap International Tourist Arrivals Y-o-Y % Change by Month (January to June 2020)
                                                                                                        roads, road rehabilitations, upgrades to
    0%                                                                                                  the water supply system, improvements
    -20%                                                                                                of the western causeway of Angkor Wat,

    -40%
                                                                                                        conservation of Tonle Sap lake and
                                                                                                        improvements along National Road 6.
    -60%

    -80%
                                                                                                        These continuous efforts by the
    -100%
                                                                                                        government enhances accessibility
    -120%
               January           February      March             April           May            June    to/from Siem Reap, promoting both
                                                                                                        international and domestic tourism,
   Source: Ministry of Tourism
                                                                                                        whilst also driving economic growth.

                                                                                  15
SIEM REAP H1 2020 REVIEW

                       HOTEL SECTOR

The declining tourist arrivals through Siem            Apsara Angkor Resort & Conference                  to guests to comply with the government’s
Reap International Airport towards the                 announced its temporary suspension after           enforced virus prevention measures.
end of year 2019 was further exacerbated               two decades of operations to undergo
by the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. As              extensive renovation works. A number of            No new hotels inaugurated during the
the outbreak worsened during Q1 2020,                  other operators also took this opportunity         first half of 2020. The ratio of hotel
governments around the world began                     to undertake much needed refurbishmemt             segment also remained the same as
implementing lockdowns and restricting                 and renovation works to their hotels.              at the end of 2019 with 64% of the
international travel to contain the chain of                                                              overall supply being Upscale & Upper
infection. According to the latest tourism             As at H1 2020, the total existing supply           Midscale,23% were Luxury & Upper
data released by the Ministry of Tourism,              of hotel rooms remained the same since             Midscale hotels and the remaining 13%
Cambodia, the cumulative incoming                      the end of H2 2019 at 12,148 keys . This           were Midscale & Economy.
arrivals and international tourist arrivals            aggregate includes the aforementioned
plummeted by 75% and 69%, respectively,                hotels that suspended operations either            The bleak outlook of Siem Reap’s
during the first half of 2020 when                     permanently or temporarily. During the             hospitality sector caused by the global
compared with the same period in 2019.                 first half of 2020, approximately 25% of           outbreak has derailed many expansion
                                                       the hotels in our monitored supply were            plans for hotel operators with no new
The lack of tourists and decline in hotel              operational, with most operators limiting          operator agreements signed. The much
occupancy rates and room rates led to                  the number of available rooms.                     anticipated 158-room Luxury & Upper
a number of operators permanently                                                                         Upscale, Angsana Siem Reap under
closing their doors. The latest tourism                Heightened hygiene and sanitation policies         Banyan Tree Holdings, which was
data by the Ministry of Tourism recorded               were noted across all hotels including             initially scheduled to open by H1 2020
approximately 172 hotels under temporary               temperature checks and hand sanitizers             has now rolled over to H2 2020.
suspension and 18 hotels shuttered,                    placed strategically around hotels. Most food
equating to 78% of the overall hotel and               & beverage and recreational facilities (spa,       Data from STR during revealed an average
guesthouse supply in Siem Reap.                        swimming pool, sports) remained off-limits         occupancy rate of 38.5% which is a 24.5
                                                                                                          percentage points decrease compared over
                                                                                                          the same period of 2019 for Luxury, Upper
   Figure 19: International Tourist Arrivals by months between H1 2019 and H1 2020
                                                                                                          Upscale & Midscale rooms. Starting off
      H1 2019       H 12020
                                                                                                          vigorously during January with an average
     300,000

     250,000
                                                                                                          of 61.5%, it slid during February and March

     200,000
                                                                                                          to 41.8% and 12.7%, respectively.
     150,000

     100,000                                                                                              Conversely, ADRs reported an
      50,000                                                                                              increase of 3.8% during Q1 2020 as a
           0                                                                                              result of various hotel closures and
                    January      Ferbruary     March           April          May           June
                                                                                                          room limitations as operators reduce
   Source: Ministry of Tourism
                                                                                                          operation costs to stay afloat.

    Outlook:
    Towards the end of June 2020, the Government of Cambodia lifted the ban on incoming foreigners from specific countries with high level of
    infection. In addition, the tax exemption for tourism-related industries was prolonged to July 2020 for affected businesses, provided by the
    government to ease the burden of hoteliers and to prevent a cascade of closures.

    By the end of H1 2020, incoming tourists showed no sign of improvement as countries around the world entered into different stages of
    the Covid-19 outbreak cycle. Although Cambodia reported a very low level of infection rate, the absence of incoming international tourists
    continues to place significant pressure on profitability for operators. The lackluster commercial activities surrounding the tourist belt of
    Siem Reap town led to a continuous cascade of business closures.

    Amidst the global economic uncertainty and until a vaccine is found, the tourism sector will continue to be challenged and the path to
    recovery for Siem Reap’s hotel sector will be heavily reliant on domestic tourism.

                                                                             16
You can also read