BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN GERMANY ENERGY STORAGE AND CHARGING STATIONS - APRIL 2018 - GTAI
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BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN GERMANY ENERGY STORAGE AND CHARGING STATIONS APRIL 2018 Tobias Rothacher Energy, Environment & Resources www.gtai.de
Business Opportunities in Germany 1. Residential Energy Storage 2. Charging stations 3. Digitalization / Smart Homes 4. How Germany Trade & Invest supports you © Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 2
From PV Grid-Parity to Battery-Parity in 2018
Saving energy costs while becoming 60-80% energy independent
Anticipated development of electricity costs for PV and PV+Battery
(2010 – 2020, in EUR/kWh¹)
0.50
Prognosis
0.45
PV+storage is cheaper than socket price.
0.40 Customers get 60-80% independent.
0.35
0.30
0.25 PV-energy is cheaper than socket price.
Customers get 30-40% independent.
0.20
0.15
0.10
Electricity cost for PV Electricity costs for PV+Battery ² Electricity price for households (2.5-5 MWh/a)
Note: ¹ Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kWh/kWp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs. ² based on 5,000
cycles, C2, 87% efficiency. Sources: Own calculation; System Prices: BSW 2016; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices: BDEW 2017; Electricity Prices 2017-
2020: own estimate at 0.29 EUR/kWh.
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 3
Potential annual income with PV storage in 2017
Based on 250 storage cycles per year and 0.08€ value per stored kWh
for industrial, 0.16€ for private – value rising every year
Potential annual income for PV storage for the year 2017
(in EUR per Usable kWh, based on Feed-in tariffs and electricity prices in 2017)
Higher PV own-consumption, industry
Higher PV own-consumption, industry, w/o Feed-in tariff From 2021, @ 0.20 €/kWh
Higher PV own-consumption, private
Higher PV own-consumption, private, w/o Feed-in tariff From 2021, @ 0.30 € value per stored kWh
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Industrial: FIT: 10 ct./kWh, Electricity price: 20 ct./kWh, Storage system efficiency: 85% => Value per stored kWh = 20 ct./kWh – (10 ct./kWh / 0.85) = 8.24 ct./kWh
Private: FIT: 12 ct./kWh, Electricity price: 30 ct./kWh, Storage system efficiency: 85% => Value per stored kWh = 30 ct./kWh – (12 ct./kWh / 0.85) = 15.88 ct./kWh
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 4
Gigantic PV-battery retrofit potential
More than 1 million existing PV systems could add storage from 2021
Private PV-Systems exiting Feed-in tariff Commercial PV-Systems exiting Feed-in tariff
(Number of systems, < 30 kWp) (Number of systems, > 30 kWp and < 750 kWp)
250,000 250,000
200,000 200,000
150,000 150,000
100,000 100,000
50,000 50,000
0 0
2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Source: Federal Network Agency, BSW, 2017
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 5Falling battery prices make storage profitable
End-customer prices of Li-systems have halved within the past 4 years
End-user system prices for private PV-batteries in Germany
(in € per Usable kWh, incl. VAT, excl. Installation)
4000
-12% p.a.
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
Too
500 few
data
0
Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li Pb Li
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017
Standard Deviation
Source: RWTH Aachen 2017 (Monitoring Report for KfW storage program)
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 6PV-Batteries in Germany: Strong market growth
23k systems sold in 2016. 30k expected for 2017.
PV-battery systems installed in Germany
(Number of systems, cumulated)
• CAGR [2013; 2016]: 113%
100,000
• KfW supported systems
90,000
2016 (approx. 44% of
80,000 market):
70,000 o 6.8 kWh avg. usable
60,000 capacity
50,000 o 92% lithium, 8% lead-acid
40,000 o 57% AC-connected, 43%
30,000 DC
20,000 o 88% came with new PV,
10,000
12% were retrofited with
old PV system
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: *estimates; Source: KfW, 2016, RWTH 2017, BSW 2017
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 7Still: Enormous potential for further growth
Only 3.7% of rooftop PV systems in Germany are equipped with a
battery today – by 2030 it could be well over 80%.
Rooftop PV Systems vs. PV-battery systems
(Number of systems, 2013 – 2016)
1,500,000 Number of rooftop PV Systems Number of installed PV-batteries
1,250,000
1,000,000
750,000
500,000
250,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: „rooftop PV“ is referring to PV systems < 30 kWp
Sources: Federal Network Agency 2017, BSW 2017, RWTH Aachen 2017
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 8New electricity tariff models for Prosumers
New tariff and service models for PV/Storage clouds emerging
ESS Manufacturers Utilities
Sonnen Eon
sonnenFlat Solar Cloud
DEV ENBW
Senec.CLOUD Solar Plus
Lichtblick
Schwarm-
E3/DC
Batterie
ZERO Beegy
beegyLIVE
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 9Business Opportunities in Germany 1. Residential Energy Storage 2. Charging stations 3. Digitalization / Smart Homes 4. How Germany Trade & Invest supports you © Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 10
Sector coupling: strong growth for Electric Vehicles
Only 0.73% of newly registered vehicles were Plug-in Hybrids or
Battery Electric Vehicles in 2016
Electric Vehicles (PHEV + BEV) in Germany
(Number of vehicles, 2011 – 2016)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Dez 11 Dez 12 Dez 13 Dez 14 Dez 15 Dez 16
Sources: IEA 2017, BDEW 2017
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 11…and for Public Charging Stations
Acute demand for public charging stations. These will potentially also
be equipped with batteries – as well as with smart grid technologies
Electric Vehicles (PHEV + BEV) vs. Public Charging Stations
(Number of units, 2011 – 2016)
90,000 Electric Vehicles Public Charging Points
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Dez 11 Dez 12 Dez 13 Dez 14 Dez 15 Dez 16
Sources: IEA 2017, BDEW 2017
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 12Charging stations in Germany: +200% in 2016
With the strongest annual growth rate in EV charging stations
worldwide, Germany is starting to fill it’s huge demand gap.
Charger stock by country (AC and DC chargers)
(Number of units)
160,000
2015 2016 +140%
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000 +28%
+46%
+5%
40,000 +222%
+25% +49%
+26% +20% +36%
20,000
0
Sweden Canada Norway United France Germany Japan Netherlands United China
Kingdom States
Source: IEA 2017
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 13Business Opportunities in Germany 1. Residential Energy Storage 2. Charging stations 3. Digitalization / Smart Homes 4. How Germany Trade & Invest supports you © Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 14
Digitalization: The new Smart Grid
Future generation centers will be far from current load centers.
Germany needs to adapt its power structures and expand its grid.
[MW]
2014-
2024
[MW] [MW]
Power balance 2014 Power balance 2024
Source: Bundesnetzagentur 2016
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 15The German Smart Meter Roll-Out just started
Potential for 3 million new smart meters starting in 2017.
From 2020 further 47 million. Thereof only ~150k installed today.
Smart Meters to be rolled out until 2032
(Number of units)
60,000,000
Producers (CHP & Renewable Energy plants >7 kW) Consumers > 10 MWh/a Consumers < 10 MWh/a
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Source: BMWI 2016
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 16Digitalization behind the meter: Smart Buildings
Market for Building Energy Management Systems and smart
domestic appliances will more than triple within the next 3 years.
Turnover of Smart Home devices in Germany
(in Million €)
Home Entertainment Comfort and Light Energy Management Networking and controls Security Domestic appliances
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Statista 2018
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 17Business Opportunities in Germany 1. Residential Energy Storage 2. Charging stations 3. Digitalization / Smart Homes 4. How Germany Trade & Invest supports you © Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 18
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© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 19Germany Trade & Invest
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Strategy Decision Implementation
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opportunities site visits permits
• Competitor profiling • Cost factor assessment • Support in negotiating with
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specific location factors • Information on tax & legal issues • PR support
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authorities, and service
providers
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 20Case Study: Skeleton Technologies from Estonia
“The highly interconnected R&D infrastructure and the pool of trained
professionals are the ideal basis for our facility” (Taavi Madiberk, CEO)
Company profile Project data
• Founded 2009 in Estonia • Investment: EUR 10 million
• Industry: Energy Storage • Production of ultra-caps
• Target group: B2B • USP: Superior energy and power density
• Products: ultra-caps and tailor-made storage modules (5.4V to 128V) • New employees: 110 by the end of 2015
• R&D location in Tartu, Estonia • First contact with Germany Trade & Invest: Ecosummit 2012
• Manufacturing in Dresden, Germany • German openings: Berlin (HQ) and Dresden (Production)
Milestones Products
Sep 2009 1 Company formation
Jun 2012 2 Introduction of new SkelCap series
ultracapacitor family ranging from 2.47
to 12.53 kW
Apr 2013 3 Raised €2,2 million in Round A financing
2014 4 Start of production in Germany
© Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de 21CONTACT US!
We power your expansion
Energy Storage – Photovoltaics – Smart Buildings
Anne Bräutigam Tobias Rothacher
Senior Manager Senior Manager
T +49 (0)30 200 099-223 T +49 (0)30 200 099-225
anne.brautigam@gtai.com tobias.rothacher@gtai.com
Friedrichstr. 60 Friedrichstr. 60
10117 Berlin 10117 Berlin
Germany Trade & Invest is the economic development agency of the Federal Republic of Germany. The company helps create and secure extra employment
opportunities, strengthening Germany as a business location. With more than 50 offices in Germany and abroad and its network of partners throughout the world,
Germany Trade & Invest supports German companies setting up in foreign markets, promotes Germany as a business location and assists foreign
companies setting up in Germany.
Supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy on the basis of a decision by the German Bundestag.
© Germany Trade & Invest
All market data provided is based on the most current market information available at the time of publication.
Germany
© GermanyTrade
Trade&&Invest
Invest accepts no liability for the actuality, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided. www.gtai.de 22You can also read
