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PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW BRISBANE 1group.com.au
FROM THE DIRECTORS
The Brisbane residential property market has been tipped to be a strong performer in
the next three years, with pre COVID-19 predictions tipping market values could
increase by up to 20 per cent. However, other asset classes are somewhat less stable,
with the office sector booming in 2019 and now facing hardship, while the retail asset
market has declined by 38 per cent since the 2017 peak. We expect Brisbane to have
‘markets within markets’ as it often does, especially in comparison to Melbourne and
Sydney where location and supply dynamics are not as critical
The Queensland economy has performed strongly over the past few years. The Gross State
Product (GSP) of Queensland increased by 3 per cent in the financial year ended June 2019,
with a total GSP of $335.7 billion per annum, up nearly $16.1 billion on the previous year.
The city of Brisbane itself had a Gross Regional Product (GRP) rate of 2.6 per cent for the
year ended June 2019, with a total GRP of $117 billion, up nearly $6.5 billion on the
previous year.
Further, ABS figures show that Queensland’s State Final Demand grew by just 0.6 per cent
in the year to March 2020, a year on year decline of 0.7 per cent. This result was on the
back of a reduction in household consumption (down 0.5per cent in the March quarter) and
business investment (down 5.9 per cent for the year). Business investment was down prior
to the COVID-19 pandemic due to uncertainties in both the global and domestic economy,
and these trends have since been exacerbated by the pandemic, which is discouraging
businesses from committing to major new investment decisions.
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lock-down have already resulted in significant
increase in the unemployment rate. In February 2020, unemployment in Queensland stood
at 6.3per cent, a modest increase on the 6per cent rate recorded a year ago. However, the
rate increased markedly in the space of just two months to stand at 7per cent in April
2020, with the likelihood that this will continue to increase in coming months.
The lock-down means the economy will likely experience subdued growth and significantly
increased unemployment during 2020. The economic recession resulting from the pandemic
has already impacted the rental market and short term property sales, but the long term
affect of the pandemic induced recession on the property market will depend on how
quickly the Australian economy takes to recover.
Overall, thanks to the combination of massive infrastructure spending, low interest rates,
strong inter-state migration, and decent affordability, the Brisbane market should be one of
the strongest performing markets in Australia as the economy recovers from the COVID-19
pandemic induced recession.
Tal Eloss Julian Muldoon
Director Director
1Group Property Advisory 1Group Property Advisory
3
KEY STATS KEY POINTS
2019/20 2018/19 Change 1. Brisbane residential markets are 5. Brisbane itself had a Gross
tipped to perform strongly over Regional Product (GRP) rate of
the next three years, with pre 2.6% for the year ended June
Queensland Gross State 3% 2.75% +0.25% COVID-19 predictions at a 20% 2019, with a total GRP of $117
Product (growth rate) increase in values. billion, up nearly $6.5 billion on
the previous year.
2. Brisbane experienced a
Queensland Gross State $335.7b $319.6b +$16.1b
population growth of 1.43% in 6. A combination of the recent
Product (total value - billions) the year to December 2019. bushfires and the COVID-19 lock-
Brisbane Gross Regional 2.6% 3.4% -0.8% down means the economy is
3. The QLD State Final Demand likely to experience subdued
Product (growth rate) growth and significantly
grew by 0.6% to March 2020.
Brisbane Gross Regional $177.0b $170.5b +$6.5b increased unemployment during
4. Gross State Product (GSP) of 2020, which may affect the
Product (total value - billion)
Queensland increased by 3% in forecast figures.
Brisbane Population 2,406,000 2,372,000 +1.43% the financial year ended June
2019, with a total GSP of $335.7
Unemployment 7.0% (April 6.1 % +0.9% billion per annum, up nearly
2020) (April $16.1 billion on the previous
6.3% (Feb 2019) +0.3% year.
2020) 6.0% (Feb
2019)
Queensland State Final 0.6% (March 1.3% -0.7%
Demand (percentage change) 2020) (March
2019)
Sources: ABS, ABC, Economy.id.com.au Sources: ABS, Population Australia, Queensland Treasury, Economy.id.com.au
5 Brisbane Market Update Brisbane Market Update 6
MAJOR PROJECTS
The Queensland State Government, St Lucia to West End Green Bridge;
Australian Federal Government and Brisbane Breakfast Creek Green Bridge; and
City Council are investing $49.5 billion in Bellbowrie Green Bridge.
infrastructure projects, including:
8. The proposed $2 billion Brisbane Live
arena, comprising an integrated transport
1. A total of $5.4 billion to fund the Cross and entertainment precinct at Roma Street,
River Rail. This is Queensland’s biggest
including a 17,000 seat entertainment
infrastructure project and includes a venue. The development may include
10.2km rail line which runs from Dutton residential towers and the State
Park in Brisbane’s Southern Suburbs to
Government is looking to the private sector
Bowen Hills in the northern suburbs. The to partially fund the project.
line will include a 5.9km tunnel under the
CBD and will see the delivery of four new
underground rail stations at Boggo Road,
Woollongabba, Albert Street and Roma There are also a number of significant private
Street. The project will create around sector developments in the pipeline, including:
7,000 construction jobs and is due to be
completed by 2024. 1. The $3.6 billion Queen’s Wharf
development, covering a total of 12
2. A total of $944 million for the Brisbane hectares of land and comprising 390,000
Metro high frequency bus rapid transit sqm of floor space comprising four hotels,
system involving the construction of two 2,000 residential apartments, a casino, and
lines totaling 21 kilometres plus 18 50 bars and restaurants. The development
stations. The project is jointly funded by will be delivered by Far East Consortium,
the Federal Government ($218.5 million) Star Group and Chow Tai Fook.
and Brisbane City Council ($644 million)
2. The $2.9 billion RNA Showgrounds being
3. A total of $1.1 billion for construction of a developed by Lend Lease in Bowen Hills,
new Brisbane Airport Runway, due to be comprising 340,000 sqm of residential,
completed by mid 2020. commercial and retail space.
4. A total of $177 million for construction of 3. The $1 billion Brisbane Quarter precinct to
the Brisbane International Cruise Terminal, be developed by Taiwanese backed
due to be completed by October 2020. Shayher Group.
5. A total of $110 million for construction of 4. The $2 billion Millennium Square
a new ferry terminal at the Howard Smith redevelopment, which will transform News
Wharves precinct. Corp’s existing four hectare base in Bowen
Hills into a state-of-the-art multimedia hub,
6. A total of $70 million to upgrade existing residential and lifestyle precinct.
ferry terminals along the Brisbane River by
2022, including redevelopment of the 5. The $2.1 billion Eagle Street Pier precinct
South Bank Ferry Terminal. to be developed by Dexus, including two
office towers, public open space and a
7. A proposal to spend $550 million building retail precinct.
five new green bridges across the Brisbane
River, including Kangaroo Point Green
Bridge; Toowong to West End Green Bridge;
Sources: www,therealestateconversation.com.au; www.urbandeveloper.com.au
7 Brisbane Market Update Brisbane Market Update 8
RESIDENTIAL
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic hitting Australia in March 2020, property
commentators were tipping the Brisbane residential market to be a star performer
over the next three years, with BIS Oxford Economics tipping growth of up to 20
per cent. There were predictions of a 7 to 9 per cent increase in values during
2020, with the median house price tipped to reach as high as $620,000. Further,
the unit market was also tipped to perform strongly with predictions of a 6 per
cent rise in values.
The Brisbane market hasn’t always been a strong performer, and has had four
periods of decline in the past 30 years. The most recent period of decline
saw a drop in values of 10.6 per cent between 2010 and 2012. However, the
market has steadily improved, with CoreLogic noting that the Brisbane market
is now at peak following seven years of annual price growth for houses. The
market performed steadily in the past year, with the median house price in
Brisbane increasing by 3.5 per cent to $557,714 in the year ended March
2020.
Brisbane’s apartment market is not as strong as the housing market, but
grew marginally by 1.3 per cent from March 2019 to March 2020, with an
average median price of $386,427. However this remains 11.1 per cent
below the peak for Brisbane unit values recorded in 2010. This is due to the
large number of apartments completed during 2015 and 2016, which
suppressed values due to over-supply. However, with fewer new
developments in the pipeline, unit values should stabilize or start to increase
in coming years.
With an average net population increase of 23,000 residents per year,
Brisbane is experiencing significant population growth. The state of
Queensland – and by implication the city of Brisbane - is less likely than NSW
or Victoria to be impacted by the COVID-19 induced downturn in overseas
migration as most of the population increase has been from inter-state
migrants, with Queensland recently passing Victoria to hold the mantle for
the highest number of net inter-state arrivals. The strong population growth
means that some 8,825 new dwellings will need to be constructed to meet
the demand. At present the construction pipeline is insufficient to meet the
demand generated by inter-state migration. The recent and predicted future
growth of Brisbane’s residential market is due to the market benefitting from
a combination of strong population growth, lower median house values
compared to Sydney and Melbourne, a steadily performing state economy,
low interest rates, a relative lack of housing supply and Brisbane’s appeal as a
highly liveable city.
9 Brisbane Market Update
RESIDENTIAL The strongest performing suburbs in the Brisbane metro area during 2019 were the housing markets in Fig Tree Pocket (30.2 per cent growth), Auchenflower (23.1per cent), Windsor (22.1per cent), Wilston (17.5 per cent), Yamanto (15.6 per cent), Northgate (13.3 per cent), Gordon Park (12.2 per cent) and Hamilton (11.5 per cent). The weakest performing markets were the unit markets in Ipswich (-22.8 per cent), Logan (-15.3 per cent) and Brisbane CBD (-3 per cent). Despite stable rental vacancy rates of 2.5 per cent across the Brisbane metro area, some areas have been hard hit in the last few months due to the COVID- 19 pandemic. For example, Brisbane’s CBD has seen rental vacancies increase from 3.9 per cent in February 2020 to 8.9 per cent in May 2020. Weekly median rental rates across the Brisbane metro area have remained stable year on year, at $450 per week for houses and $400 per week for units. While the long term prospects for Brisbane’s residential market remain strong, the COVID-19 pandemic may result in short term decline in market values and more modest longer term growth than the figures predicted above. The pandemic is likely to see the market decline in the short term, with the Commonwealth Bank predicting that Brisbane values could decline by 5 to 7 per cent. The impacts of COVID-19 on the market can be seen in a reduction in new listings to about 25 per cent lower than what they normally would be at this time of the year. This reduction in supply levels is actually likely to help protect housing values until confidence returns to the market. Market values are also likely to be cushioned by record low interest rates and mortgage relief measures, both of which are likely to reduce the likelihood of significant forced mortgagee sales as the economic recession takes hold. The ability of the market to recover will depend on the severity of the recession and how long it takes for the Australian economy to return to a semblance of normality. 11 Brisbane Market Update
KEY STATS KEY POINTS
Metric 2020 2019 Change 1. Median house prices increased by 6. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,
3.5% to $557,714 compared to residential values were predicted
Median Dwelling $557,714 (Mar $538,194 3.5% March 2019. to increase by 7 to 9% in 2020
and by 20% over the next three
Prices 2020) (Mar 2019)
2. Median dwelling price increased years.
House Prices $506,553 (Mar $490,830 3.1% by 3.1% to $506,553 between
2020) (Mar 2019) 2019 and 2020. 7. Brisbane’s rental vacancy rates
remain stable year on year at
Apartment Prices $386,427 (Mar $381,403 1.3% 3. Median apartment price 2.5%.
2020) (Mar 2019) increased by 1.3% to $386,147
between 2019 and 2020. 8. Despite stable rental vacancy
Median Weekly Rental $450 (Jan $450 (Jan 0% rates across the Brisbane metro
– houses 2020) 2020) 4. Strongest performing suburb was area, some areas are hard hit by
Fig Tree Pocket with 30.2% the COVID-19 pandemic.
Median Weekly Rental $400 (Jan $400 (Jan 0% growth rate, followed by Brisbane’s CBD has seen rental
Auchenflower with 23.1% vacancies increase from 3.9% in
– Units 2020) 2020)
growth rate, Windsor with 22.1% February 2020 to 8.9% in May
growth rate and Wilston with 2020.
Vacancy Rate 2.5% (May 2.4% (May 0.1%
17.5% growth rate.
2020) 2019)
9. Median weekly rental prices have
Mortgage Arrears 1.79% (Feb 2.06% (May -0.27% 5. Weakest performing suburbs remained stable year on year.
(delinquency rate) 2020) 2019) were the unit markets in Ipswich
(-22.8%), Logan (-5.3%) and
Brisbane CBD (-3%).
Sources: CoreLogic | Domain | Rent.com.au| SQM Research
Hunter Galloway | BIS Oxford Economics
13 Brisbane Market Update Brisbane Market Update 14
COMMERCIAL MARKET
Brisbane’s office markets are performing strongly, with more than $2 billion in sales
recorded in the year to May 2020 for the first time since 2012. Further, there has
been a slight decline in office vacancy rates from 13 per cent in January 2019 to
12.7 per cent in January 2020. This upswing in market confidence is due to
attractive yields compared to the Sydney and Melbourne markets, falling vacancy
rates, low interest rates, and strong investment in infrastructure which is making
Brisbane an attractive place to invest.
2019/2020 2018/2019 Change
Total Office Sales $2,619m (17 $1,895 (23 sales) +$724m (-6
sales) sales)
Overall Vacancy Rate 12.7% (Jan 2020) 13%(Jan 2019) -0.3% YOY
Premium Grade 3.2% (Jan 2020) 10.4% (Jan 2019) -7.2%
Vacancy
A Grade Vacancy 13.7% (Jan 2020) 11.7% (Jan 2019) -2%
B Grade Vacancy 14.3% (Jan 2020) 20.8% (Jan 2019) -6.5%
C Grade Vacancy 16.6% (Jan 2020) 15.3% (Jan 2019) +1.3%
Total Stock 21% (Jan 2020) 13.7% (Jan 2019) +7.3%
Yields (prime) 2,260,280 sqm 2,227,017 sqm +33,263 sqm
Yields (secondary) 5.95% 6.15% -20 basis points
(-0.20%)
Prime Net Face Rents 7% 7.25% -25 basis points
(prime) (-0.25%)
Prime Net Face Rents $781 per sqm $760 per sqm +2.8%
(secondary)
Incentive Level (prime) $618 per sqm $600 per sqm +3%
Incentive Level 35% 35% 0%
(secondary)
KEY POINTS
1. Total CBD Stock of 2,260,280 7. Net face rents increased slightly
sqm, an increase of 33,263 in twelve months to February
sqm. 2020.
2. Total sales value of $2,619 8. Prime incentives have decreased
million from 17 sales in year to slightly since 2019.
May 2020 compared with
$1895 million from 23 sales in 9. Investor demand for office
year to May 2019. assets in Brisbane is picking up.
Several factors are attracting
3. Largest sale was for 400 George investors to Brisbane, including:
St, sold to Cromwell Property
Group for $524.8 million in • Attractive yields compared
September 2019. This was to Sydney and Melbourne
followed by Central Plaza Two, markets;
66 Eagle Street, sold to Deka • Low interest rates;
Australia Management One Pty
Ltd for $365.7 million in • The appeal to investors of
December 2019. the State and Local
governments investing
4. Overall vacancy was 12.7%, a heavily in infrastructure.
slight decrease from the 13%
recorded a year previously.
5. A total of 79,500 sqm in office
space has been absorbed by the
market over the past two years,
resulting in lower vacancy rates.
6. There is more than 100,000
sqm of office space due to come
online after 2021, which may
put upward pressure on vacancy
rates.
Sources: Cityscope | Property Council | Savills | Knight Frank
Brisbane Market Update 18
INDUSTRIAL MARKET Queensland’s Industrial markets are experiencing declining vacancy rates, strong demand for new space, a high percentage of sales of more than $10 million and tight supply of both new land and existing properties. This is partly because of Queensland’s increasing population, which has led to a high level of domestic consumer demand. Therefore, there is strong demand from industry to invest in advanced new generation distribution facilities to meet the logistics challenges posed by a growing population. However, the supply of prime logistics properties remains tight. This, along with strong investment in infrastructure developments, is contributing to the robust demand for Queensland industrial properties by both investors and tenants. All these factors combined are resulting in strong demand from institutional investors who are driving up land value rates as they snap up englobo land and infill development opportunities. 19 Brisbane Market Update
KEY STATS
2019/2020 2018/2019 Change
Net Face Rent (per $132 $118 +11.86%
sqm) (+$14)
Yield 5.88% 6.38% -0.6%
Incentive Level 15% 12.2% +2.8%
Land Value $320 per sqm $312 per sqm +2.4%
KEY POINTS
1. Net face rents have increased 4. Vacancy rates trended
significantly, up by nearly 12%, downwards in 2019 and there is
driven by limited supply and limited supply of quality space in
increased demand. well located areas.
2. Yields have tightened from 5. The pipeline for new
6.38% to 5.88% due to tight developments over the next few
supply of available properties. years shows that institutional
investors have secured a
3. There is a strong appetite number of pre-commitments
among buyers for premium allowing them to commit to
grade properties above $10 developing the new generation
million and a tightening of supply state-of-the-art automated
in the more affordable end of facilities. The largest single pre-
the market. Sales above $10 commitment for new space is
million accounted for around from Coles for a new 66,000
24% of all industrial sales in sqm distribution facility at
2019. Redbank.
Sources: Charter Keck Cramer | Savills | Knight Frank
Brisbane Market Update 22RETAIL MARKET In common with other capital cities, the retail sector in Brisbane faces some significant challenges including the growth of on-line retail, depressed consumer confidence, and a trend towards non-discretionary spending. Brisbane also faces relatively high unemployment and slow employment growth. The Reserve Bank and Federal Government have been providing stimulatory economic conditions to promote business and consumer sentiment across Australia, but the retail sector continues to face challenges. The retail sector as a whole across Australia faces challenges in adapting and transitioning from the old bricks & mortar economy to the new economy combining on-line retailing with bricks & mortar consumerism. Despite these challenges, Queensland recorded the strongest retail sales growth in Australia, with retail sales growing by 4.7 per cent in the twelve months to December 2019, well above the national average of 2.7 per cent. This is due to the lower cost of living compared to Sydney and Melbourne which allowed for greater discretionary spending by Queensland’s population, thus benefiting retailers in the state. 23 Brisbane Market Update
KEY STATS
2019 2018 Change
Average Yields – 5.25% 5.25% 0
Regional Centres
Average Yields – 6.8% 6.8% 0
Neighbourhood
Centres
Average Yields – 6.9% 6.7% +0.20
Sub-Regional Centres
Large Format Retail 7.4% 7.2% +0.20
Yields
KEY POINTS
1. According to ABS National Retail 5. Neighbourhood shopping centres
Online Trade report from August represented 28% of retail asset
2019, online retail currently transactions in 2019, with Sub-
accounts for 6.2% of total retail Regional shopping centres
trade. accounting for 24%of all retail
transactions.
2. Largest transaction was the sale of
Stockland Cleveland, a 6. Regional and sub-regional centres
Neighbourhood Shopping Centre at are experiencing tough trading
78 Middle Street, Cleveland for conditions due to greater exposure
$103 million in May 2019. This was to discretionary retailing, such as
followed by Mt Ommaney Centre, a fashion and department stores and
Regional Centre at 171 Dandenong are more exposed to footprint
Road, Mount Ommaney, which sold rationalization by the larger chain
for $94.5 million in November stores – for example Myer and
2019. David Jones have both reduced
their footprint across the country’s
3. Queensland recorded the strongest regional and sub-regional centres.
retail sales growth in Australia
during 2019. Retail sales grew at 7. A total of 175,000 sqm of retail
4.7% in year to December 2019, space is currently under
which is above the national average construction and due to be
of 2.7% and the five year average completed by 2022. A further
of 3.1%. 340,000 sqm of approved retail
space is in the pipeline beyond
4. The number of retail asset 2022.
transactions in Brisbane retail
market has declined by 38% over
the 2017 peak.
Sources: Savills | Colliers
25 Brisbane Market Update Brisbane Market Update 26MEDICAL
There seven transactions of medical centres with a total value of $2,691,591 This compares with seven transactions with a total value of $4,832,000 in the
within the Brisbane CBD, Brisbane Fringe and South Brisbane areas in the twelve months ending May 2019:
twelve months ending in May 2020:
1. Face Value Dental, Unit 16, 138 Albert Street, Brisbane – sold for
1. Barrett & Wright Dental Laboratories, Unit 17, 25 Mary Street, Brisbane – $800,000 in October 2018 to the Duff Family Superannuation Fund.
sold for $798,591 in November 2019 to a private investor.
2. Two vacant medical suites at Units 39 & 40, 201 Wickham Terrace, Spring
2. Werner Sauer Oral Design, Unit 41, 1 Park Road, Milton – sold for Hill – sold in one line for $387,000 in November 2018 to a private
$650,000 in February 2020 to a private investor. investor.
3. Molesmart, Unit 10, 201 Wickham Terrace, Spring Hill – sold for $190,000 3. DNA Qld, Unit 57, 201 Wickham Terrace, Spring Hill – sold for $165,000 in
in July 2019 to Ekidna Superannuation Pty Ltd. July 2018 to a private investor.
4. A medical suite occupied by Dr Dana Wainwright and Dr Robert 4. A medical suite occupied by Dr Gary Larder, Unit 63, 201 Wickham
Wainwright, Unit 70C, 201 Wickham Terrace, Spring Hill – sold for Terrace, Spring Hill – sold for $360,000 in June 2018 to a company owned
$470,000 in March 2020 to a private investor. by Dr Gary Larder.
5. A medical suite occupied by Dr Alexander Evans and other doctors at Unit 5. My Life My Health Medical, Unit 5, 155 Wickham Terrace, Spring Hill – sold
32, 445 Upper Edward Street, Spring Hill – sold for $190,000 in August for $620,000 in December 2018 to a private investor.
2019 to a company partly owned by Dr Alexander Evans.
6. Three medical suites sold as part of the sale of units 5 to 16, 113
6. The Lucy Rose Clinic, Unit 102, 101 Wickham Terrace, Spring Hill – sold Wickham Terrace, Spring Hill – sold in one line of 11 lots for $1,000,000 in
for $230,000 in February 2020 to a private investor. February 2019 to Ozi Super Pty Ltd.
7. Chinatown McWhirters Medical Centre, Unit 239, 38 Warner Street, 7. The Sharp Clinic, Unit 1, 39 Cordelia Street, South Brisbane – sold for
Fortitude Valley – a 50 per cent interest sold for $163,000 to a private $1,500,000 in November 2018 to a private investor.
investor.
Source: RP Data
27 28
Brisbane Market Update Brisbane Market UpdateCO-WORKING
1. Brisbane has the third highest concentration of co-working spaces in
Australia after Melbourne and Sydney.
2. There are 55 co-working spaces within the Brisbane metro area, of which
26 are located within the Brisbane CBD.
3. Compared with Sydney or Melbourne, there is a noticeable trend for co-
working spaces in Brisbane to be located within the CBD. Co-working space
occupies 46,463 sqm of the office space within the Brisbane CBD, which
equates to 2.1 per cent of the total space.
4. The largest co-working space in Brisbane is the WeWork space at 310
Edward Street, with 7,000 sqm across three levels.
Source: Charter Keck Cramer | Coworker.com
29 Brisbane Market Update Perth Marketing UpdateABOUT US
1Group Property Advisory provides a bespoke
offering to ensure you achieve the best possible
result when making a commercial or residential
acquisition through purchase or lease. We believe
that finding the right property is just as important
as avoiding the wrong one.
Directors, Julian and Tal, share decades of property
investment experience themselves and have
enjoyed the satisfying results that come from a
well researched and astutely negotiated property
purchase. The team of experts they have built
around them are all committed to the same vision:
to be the most trusted people in real estate.
Get in touch with us to discuss your residential and
commercial property investment goals.
Tal Eloss
P 1300 788 368
M 0433 333 033
E tal@1group.com.au
Julian Muldoon
P 1300 788 368
M 0401 664 777
E julian@1group.com.au
31 Brisbane Market Update 32P 1300 788 368 SYDNEY
F 1300 788 369 MELBOURNE
BRISBANE
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