Brexit Update #8 3 Sept 2019 - Ian Wright CBE, Chief Executive - Food and Drink Federation
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Brexit Update #8 3 Sept 2019
Ian Wright CBE, Chief Executive
What we’ll cover today
• Previously, on Brexit…
• What happens next???
• Update on preparations for no-deal
You can send questions during the webinar (either just for me to see, or for everyone to see)
Otherwise, email me at any time: ian.wright@fdf.org.uk
Since our last webinar
Date Event
BBC story on food and drink industry calling for competition law
7 Aug
protection in the event of no-deal.
8 Aug FDF attends Michael Gove business roundtable at 10 Downing St
Jeremy Corbyn writes to opposition leaders and senior MPs asking them
15 Aug
to support him leading a government of national unity.
18 Aug Leaked ‘Operation Yellowhammer’ document in Sunday Times.
Stephen Barclay (DExEU) announces that UK ministers and officials will
20 Aug
stop attending most EU meetings.
21 Aug HMRC announces auto-enrolment in EORI scheme
Since our last webinar
Date Event
Boris Johnson visits Germany to meet Angela Merkel + France to meet
21 - 22 Aug
Emmanuel Macron
‘Church House Declaration’:160+ cross-party MPs (exc. Con) pledge their
27 Aug
support to stop No Deal Brexit “Using whatever mechanism possible”
Boris Johnson announces intention for prorogation (suspension) of UK
28 Aug
Parliament
Legal attempts to challenge suspension launched at the High Courts in
29 Aug
London and Belfast, and Scotland's highest civil court
1 Sept Rebel Conservative MPs threatened with removal of whip
2 Sept Government launches public campaign 'Get ready for Brexit’
Government ‘Get Ready’ Campaign
Since our last webinar
• The PM urged MPs not to vote for
‘another pointless Corbyn delay’. If
they do, it would, “plainly chop the
legs out from under the UK position".
• Said there were "no circumstances" in
which he personally would ask
Brussels to delay Brexit.
• Negotiators must be allowed to get on
with their work, "And without an
election. Without an election. I don't
want an election and you don't want
PM’s Statement: 2 Sept 18:00hrs an election,"
Since our last webinar
European Union (Withdrawal(No.6)) Bill
• If, by 19 October the government hasn’t had a deal
approved or a no deal approved, the PM must ask for an
extension to 31 January 2020.
• If either a deal or a no-deal motion is passed between 19
October and 31 October, the PM can change or withdraw
the request.
• If the EU proposes a different extension date, the PM must
agree to the proposal within 2 days…unless MPs reject the
proposal in a vote.
• PM can still agree to a different extension.
• If the extension is agreed, the government has to publish a
report on negotiation progress by 30 November. This has to
be approved by MPs within 5 days.
• If it is amended or rejected, another report has to be
published by 10 Jan 2020.
• There will be another report at least every 28 calendar days
starting on 7 Feb 2020 until an agreement with the EU is
reached “or until otherwise indicated by a resolution of the
Draft Bill to stop No-Deal Commons”
Forthcoming events
Date Event
3 Sept UK Parliament returns from recess + PM updates Parliament
“Rebel Alliance” MPs attempt to take control of order paper for
3 Sept tomorrow (4 Sept) using Emergency Debate – whether they win or
fail shapes the week…
Prime Minister’s Questions
Fast-tracked HMT ‘Spending Round’ announcement by Sajid
Javid
4 Sept
Potential passage of EU Withdrawal No.6 Bill begins. Bill may be
able to pass both Houses within 1 or 2 days.
Forthcoming events
Date Event
If Parliament passes ‘rebel’ legislation, PM may call for a General
Election. Can only proceed if 2/3 of MPs support the motion.
4 or 5 Sept
Not clear whether Labour would support this.
IF ‘REBELS’ CAN’T SEIZE THE AGENDA…
9 - 12 Sept Parliament is prorogued
14 - 17 Sept Liberal Democrat Party Conference
21 - 25 Sept Labour Party Conference
29 Sept - 2 Oct Conservative Party Conference
13 - 15 Oct SNP Conference
Forthcoming events (if…)
Date Event
14 Oct State Opening of Parliament & Queen’s Speech
17 - 18 Oct European Council meeting, Brussels
21 - 22 Oct MPs vote on Queen’s Speech
24 Oct Likely earliest date for a General Election
31 Oct Legal default for UK to leave the EU
1 Nov New European Commission starts its term of office
Last date for UK to leave EU (before six year budget round
May 2020
begins)Reminder: What Could Stop No-Deal?
A DEAL
• Parliament votes through an amended Withdrawal Agreement.
• PM insists there is ‘encouraging progress’ on a deal.
LEGISLATION REQUIRING AN EXTENSION
• Rebels to seek to pass the European Union (Withdrawal(No.6))
Bill this week.
THE FALL OF THE GOVERNMENT
• Government loses a vote of no confidence and an alternative
government (led by Jeremy Corbyn or someone else) takes over,
seeks an extension and calls a General Election.The Parliamentary arithmetic • There are 650 MPs. • 11 MPs don’t vote by convention or choice (Speaker & deputies plus Sinn Fein MPs). • Government therefore needs 320 votes for a majority. • (Subtract two tellers from each side to count the votes and 318 is the magic number in an actual division). • There are 310 voting Conservative MPs, plus 10 DUP MPs making 320. • In the event of a tie, the Speaker has the casting vote.
The Parliamentary arithmetic of a deal
• On each occasion that a no-deal Brexit was put to the House of Commons, it
received no more than 164 votes. Where can Boris Johnson look for 154 more
votes?
• DUP(10) 10
• Labour 4
• 4 voted for no-deal in June
• 30 have made pro-Brexit noises but only 10 have voted that way
• Conservatives 290 (max)
• 150 have actively voted for no-deal,
• More than 30 have voted against no-deal or said they would
TOTAL 304?The Conservative Conundrum
For those Conservatives opposed to no-deal the conundrum is this:
• “I would only vote to bring down my own party’s government as a last resort.”
• Many would have wished to wait to see the outcome of the EU Summit on 16 October.
However,
• By taking the ‘nuclear’ option to prorogue and then threaten removal of the whip, the
PM has forced anti-no deal Conservatives to take a stand earlier than they wished,
risking:
• Deselection as a candidate (although some have announced they are standing
down)
• Expulsion from the party
“You have to judge between your own personal interests and the national interest,
and the national interest has to come first”
Rt Hon David Gauke MP, 1 September 2019All roads point to a General Election
• If Parliament is successful, PM could move a motion to call a ‘people versus
Parliament’ election.
• However, 2/3 of MPs will need to vote for it – and there is no guarantee
Labour will:
• Former PM Tony Blair has warned the party about falling into Boris’s “elephant trap.”
• But the party has called for a GE many times in the last few years – will look silly if they do
not support
• Public polling shows Conservative support increasing – and the PM’s personal
polling rising but the 2017 election looms over this decision.
• Predicting voting behaviour is difficult – how successful will the mooted
‘remain alliance’ be?The complexity of the numbers
Credit: Iain Anderson from Cicero GlobalSo what happen next? My current guesses 1. MPs are successful today in seizing the agenda and legislate for an extension and/or to avoid a no deal departure on 31 October. 2. Boris rejects this and calls for a ‘who governs?’ election ASAP. 3. The Conservative Party fights the election on a no-deal platform – if they win, the Government presses on with a no deal departure, possibly slightly delayed by a few weeks. 4. If they don’t, then we could see all manner of scenarios.
Our clear advice to members
• No-deal is more likely today than AT ANY TIME.
• We must all use the little time left to prepare to the very best of our ability.
• NB preparedness, not readiness; we can never be ‘ready’ for no-deal
• Companies must not only secure their own preparations, but satisfy themselves that
their supply chains (up and down) have prepared.
• We, at FDF, will step-up our own work on this; demanding answers to the questions
that remain unanswered; convening the wider industry; providing practical advice and
guidance.
• If there is an election, we will build on our recent and highly successful Plan for
Growth document to set out a clear manifesto for food and drink manufacturing.UK temporary import tariff
Temporary tariffs for 12 months:
• majority of F&D set to zero, with no tariffs on goods moving from RoI to NI
• exceptions: beef, lamb, pork, poultry, some dairy, sugar
• lower/no tariff on 88% of agrifood products currently “protected” by EU MFN tariffs
• tariffs removed on £3bn of non-EU imports
• however, £7bn of imports from EU would now face tariffs
• changes possible e.g. if imports surge or fail to arrive
FDF is calling on Government to clarify how it will consult on a permanent approach
An announcement is expected this week from Government on the
temporary tariff following discussion in Cabinet on Monday.FDF UK trade policy priorities We are clear that Government should focus all efforts on: 1. Agreement with EU on trade (no tariffs and generous Rules of Origin) 2. Continuity agreements with all existing preferential trade partners 3. Minimising disruption from customs procedures and SPS checks etc 4. EU regulatory body membership/strong mutual recognition with new UK equivalents
FDF UK trade policy priorities When those priorities have been secured... 1. Resources can be diverted by Government/industry to future UK trade deals 2. Consultation to establish a dedicated food and drink trade policy underpinned by firm Government commitments that: • no weakening of health/safety/environment protections • food and drink standards not a bargaining chip in negotiations
Trade agreement continuity
Not possible Significantly off track Off track On track (with risks)
28 agreements with 38 countries 13 agreements with 38 countries
Algeria Albania Georgia Andean Community
Andorra Bosnia & Herzegovina Ivory Coast Cariforum EPA
Japan Cameroon Jordan Central America
San Marino Canada Kosovo Chile
Singapore East African Community EPA Lebanon Eastern and Southern Africa EPA
Turkey Egypt Mexico Faroe Islands
Vietnam Ghana Moldova Iceland and Norway
Montenegro Morocco Israel
Southern African Customs Union +
North Macedonia Liechtenstein
Mozambique
Serbia Tunisia Pacific EPA
Ukraine Palestinian Authority
South Korea
SwitzerlandLatest on individual deals
• Central America: agreed 18 July (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama)
• South Korea: agreed 10 June
• Andean Community: agreed 15 May (Colombia, Ecuador, Peru)
• Continuity deals: FDF working with Defra/DIT on simple guidance on F&D
• Majority of F&D trade off track/not possible: 54% of imports and 66% of exports
• Continuity agreements may include significant changes:
e.g. Switzerland: 67% of existing F&D imports and 54% of F&D exports excluded!
• FDF is working with Defra to produce F&D guidance on every agreementFeedback required FDF is seeking input on: 1. Impacts of a two-day border delay for imports of short shelf life products and ingredients. 2. Priorities and day one requirements in any negotiations with the EU to mitigate a no-deal Brexit. Contact luke.hindlaugh@fdf.org.uk if you can assist. Input will be anonymised.
‘Freedom of movement will end 31/10’ – will it? What’s technically true? • EU law covering Freedom of Movement in the UK will end • This means that UK nationals going to the EU will have to comply with each individual member states arrangements for immigration and mobility • However, Freedom of Movement has been transferred into UK law • Until new legislation is passed repealing this, EU citizens will still have freedom of movement into the UK • According to the Institute for Government, it is ‘close to impossible’ that this can be changed by October 31st
‘Freedom of movement will end 31/10’ – will it? What’s not being changed? • EU citizens will still be able to cross the UK border freely with an EU passport or national ID card • EU citizens in the UK before Brexit will still be able to apply to the EU Settlement Scheme on the same basis as before
‘Freedom of movement will end 31/10’ – will it? What is being changed? • The new government are going to change the previous government’s plan for EU citizens arriving after Freedom of Movement ends (i.e. European Temporary Leave to Remain) • New plans are to be set out ‘soon’ • Changes to the previous government’s plans might include: • How long EU citizens arriving after Brexit can get a one-off visa for (previously 3 years) • The costs of getting a one-off visa (previously approx. £65) • Potential for even further reduced inflow of EU citizens post-Brexit if immigration offer is made more expensive for less benefit
Food and drink regulation • Many items are still unclear e.g. health marks, status of Protected Geographical Indicators, Organic certification etc. • FDF is pushing for clarity • Businesses advised to prepare as they did prior to 29/3/19 • We should not assume that agreements made previously will turn out the same way this time – back to square one • FDF will hold a full update for Food Safety and Science Steering Committee members by conference call on 17/9/19.
FDF Brexit Roadmap Key guidance for members on the FDF Brexit Roadmap includes: • Settled Status toolkit • Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP) • Essential actions for importers and exporters • Calculating no-deal tariffs • Latest state of play on FTA continuity Further useful info can be found on www.brexitfoodhub.co.uk
Brexit Essentials, 25 September 2019
Brexit Essentials –
No Deal Preparations
25th September 2019, FDF Office, LondonYou can also read
