Brexit Monitor Results - Business beyond Covid-19 May 2020

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Brexit Monitor
Results
Business beyond Covid-19

May 2020
 As the global health pandemic continues,
 what news of business sentiment surrounding
 the UK's future trading prospects post-Brexit?
2                                                                                               Brexit Monitor Results

Brexit Monitor
How is the middle market faring as the UK battles through one of
the most uncertain and volatile economic, societal and operating
environments since the global economic crisis of 2008/09?

RSM’s Brexit Monitor offers a snapshot of business sentiment as
the UK prepares to negotiate a deal with the EU and against the
backdrop of the challenges presented by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Methodology
The survey carried out by YouGov is based on 322 interviews with C-suite
respondents from middle market firms (with turnovers between £30m and £300m)
across manufacturing (50), financial services (57), technology, media and telecoms
(TMT) (51), construction (50), consumer (58) and other markets (56).

There were at least 30 respondents in each region: London, South, Central,
North East and Yorkshire, North West and Scotland.

Sectors have been weighted to be equal within each region so as to ensure that
regional results are not being driven by any one sector in particular. Construction
figures for Wave 7 have been weighted to be equal to the average turnover sizes
reported by all respondents.

Fieldwork was completed between 5 March 2020 and 23 March 2020.

Chart percentages may exceed 100 per cent due to rounding.

Key

    MAN     Manufacturing                                       LDN      London
    FIN     Financial services                                  STH      South
    TMT     Technology, media and telecoms                      CEN      Central
    CON     Construction                                        NW       North West
    CSM     Consumer                                            NEY      North East and Yorkshire
                                                                SCO      Scotland
33                                                                                                         Brexit Monitor Results

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                                                            that most middle
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  longer term.

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                                                                           deliciur?
                          A third of firms have scaled back on recruitment in
                          preparation for a no deal scenario and a similar number have
                          put IT projects on hold.

                        40 per cent of financial services and TMT companies believe
                        that the proposed points-based system of immigration will
                        make it easier to recruit people.
4                                                                                                Brexit Monitor Results

Overview

Q What effect do you believe the UK exiting the EU will have on your
  company and the UK economy over the next two years?

    Strong positive
             effect                    Brexit Monitor – INDEX by All sectors (over next 2 years)
               200                 Calculation: strong positive = 200, weak positive = 150, no effect =
                                             100, weak negative = 50, strong negative = 0

                                                                     113
                         105                           108                                                       104
                                        98                                              99
          No effect      102                                         107                              90
                                                       100
                100                     94                                              95
                                                                                                                  93
                                                                                                      90

                                                                                             My Company     UK Economy
    Strong negative
             effect      Q3           Q4              Q1              Q2               Q3             Q1         Q2
                 0
                        2017         2017            2018            2018             2018           2019       2020

Sentiment on the impact of exiting the EU has
risen since the last survey into positive territory,
and for the first time since Q2 2018. The tracking
index on the UK economy rose to 104 points,
                                                             “    In March businesses broadly felt emboldened
                                                                 by the results of the December general election,
                                                                  but this ‘Boris’ bounce in sentiment proved to
                                                                   be a brief interlude. The full economic effects
the highest for two years. The company index                      of Covid-19 will clearly alter how mid-market
increased to 93 points but still remains negative
and generally lower than when this survey began.
                                                                 businesses view their prospects, and that of the
                                                                      economy, in the short to medium term.
                                                                                                                       “
                                                              – Simon Hart
                                                                RSM Partner, International
5                                                                                              Brexit Monitor Results

Q What impact do you think the UK exiting the EU will have
  on the UK economy in the next two and five years?

    Two years                                                Five years

                               +3%                                                                 +6%

                                     +28%                                                                  +26%

                                           -2%                                                               -13%

       +21%                                                        +30%

      +28%                                                        +26%
                                                 -9%                                                                +10%

                    Strong negative -20%          Weak negative -19% to -6            No effect -5 to 5%

                                  Weak positive +6 to +19%           Strong positive +20%

Over the short term most regions are positive                Over a five-year period, London believes that
about the impact exiting the EU will have on                 they will see a positive impact. The only region to
the economy. Only Central and London regions                 maintain a negative sentiment in the long term is
continue to feel pessimistic about having left.              the Central region.
6                                                                                                         Brexit Monitor Results

Q What effect do you believe the UK exiting the European
  Union will have on your company in the next two years?

                    Sentiment since 2017 over impact of Brexit over two years by sector

    140

    130

    120

    110

    100

    90

    80

    70
          Aug/Sept 2017   Nov/Dec 2017   Feb/Mar 2018   May/June 2018    Aug/Sept 2018     Jan/Feb 2019      Mar-2020

                                   MAN           FIN         TMT             CON            CSM

Despite a points increase since the last survey,
the TMT sector remains the most pessimistic
having previously been one of the more
optimistic of the sectors. The manufacturing
                                                                   “      The way the tech and manufacturing sectors
                                                                           have seen their prospects evolve since our
                                                                            survey began really stand out. When we
                                                                          started this exercise nearly three years ago,
sector has followed a similar pattern. In contrast,                         both sectors stood out as the UK’s most
the construction industry has seen a big fall                            optimistic areas of industry. How times change.
in confidence since the last survey but still                            Both sectors will now be hoping for a change in
remains the most positive sector, along with
financial services.
                                                                         fortunes, not just economically but in terms of
                                                                            favourable policy as the lockdown eases.
                                                                                                                            “
                                                                        – Simon Hart
                                                                         RSM Partner, International
7                                                                                                     Brexit Monitor Results

Q What effect do you believe the UK exiting the European
  Union will have on your company in the next two years?

                   Sentiment since 2017 over impact of Brexit over two years by region
    140

    130

    120

    110

    100

    90

    80

    70
          Aug/Sept 2017 Nov/Dec 2017   Feb/Mar 2018   May/June 2018   Aug/Sept 2018    Jan/Feb 2019      Mar-2020

                             LDN          STH          CEN            NW         NEY            SCO

Across the country opinion was split on how leaving the EU would impact businesses. The Southern
region has gone from among the most pessimistic when the survey began to the most optimistic and
along with the North West, the only regions to be net positive overall. Since the last survey, optimism
has grown the most in the North East and Yorkshire region. Scotland remains the least optimistic
region after the largest fall in the last 12 months.
8                                                                                                    Brexit Monitor Results

Q What effect do you believe the UK exiting the European
  Union will have on the UK’s future relations with each of the
  following over the next two years?

                                    Impact on international relations with other nations

       European Union

         United States

                China

       Commonwealth

                         0%   10%      20%       30%     40%      50%         60%       70%        80%       90%     100%

                               Strong negative    Weak negative   No effect     Weak positive      Strong positive

45 per cent of businesses feel pessimistic about
future relations with the EU. In contrast there
is a shift to positivity over future relations with
the US and the Commonwealth.
                                                                  “    We may well see another shift in sentiment
                                                                       towards each of these trading groups in the
                                                                      short term, not least due to the fast evolving
                                                                       dynamics and challenges presented by the
                                                                        global health pandemic. Negotiations with
                                                                      the US for a future FTA also kicked off in May
                                                                        – a lot’s at stake for both sides, and these
                                                                      6-weekly meetings will fuel differing views on
                                                                                      future prospects.
                                                                                                                            “
                                                                  – Simon Hart
                                                                      RSM Partner, International
9                                                                            Brexit Monitor Results

Q How well is the government representing the views of the
  middle market in their negotiations with the European Union?

       Sector                                                                            Region

MAN                                                                                               LDN

FIN                                                                                               STH

TMT                                                                                               CEN

CON                                                                                                   NW

CSM                                                                                               NEY

                                                                                                  SCO

      0%   10%   20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%     10%    0%

                                         NET well        NET poorly

The manufacturing sector does not feel that they are being well represented by the government.
However, the construction, TMT, and financial services businesses feel positive about their
representation. As do businesses in the North West, North East and Yorkshire, and the Southern
regions. Scotland in contrast continues to feel that it is not being well represented.
10                                                                                                                    Brexit Monitor Results

No deal scenario

Q What impact, if any, would the UK’s failure to negotiate a trade deal
  have on your business’s expected turnover?

                                 Overall                                                               Financial Services

                                                                                                                           26%
                                             30%                                  32%                    30%                                      30%
     36%
                             35%                                       35%

             26%                                      33%                                       32%                                   41%

            Wave 7                                     Wave 8                                 Wave 7                                  Wave 8

             Disadvantage          Neutral           Advantage                                 Disadvantage     Neutral           Advantage

                            Construction                                                                Manufacturing
                      18%
                                                                   26%                                                      25%
                                                                                  30%

                                         42%

                                                                                                          46%                                      47%
                             16%
     61%

                                                                 31%                                                            28%
                                                                                        22%

            Wave 7                                     Wave 8                                 Wave 7                                  Wave 8

             Disadvantage          Neutral           Advantage                                  Disadvantage    Neutral           Advantage

                             Consumer                                                                           TMT

                                               22%
                           26%                                                    30%                                                             30%
                                                                                                          36%             34%
     41%
                                                                       44%

                                               29%
                     29%                                                                      34%                                           32%

            Wave 7                                     Wave 8                                 Wave 7                                  Wave 8

             Disadvantage          Neutral           Advantage                                 Disadvantage     Neutral           Advantage

Overall, there has been no change to the percentage of firms                 26 per cent. However, they continue to be the only sector
who see no deal as a disadvantage (35 per cent in both waves)                to see a no deal as an advantage.
but those seeing it as an advantage overall has decreased
                                                                             Consumer businesses have shifted overall from seeing no
from 36 per cent to 30 per cent in the last 12 months.
                                                                             deal as an advantage to a negative. Previously the feeling
Construction firms are more negative in this wave than in                    was 41 per cent positive and 26 per cent negative. Now 44
previous waves – those who see the advantage of a no                         per cent of the sector see it as a negative and only 22 per
deal are down from 61 per cent to 42 per cent and those                      cent feel positive.
who see it as a disadvantage are up from 18 per cent to
11                                                                                                                           Brexit Monitor Results

Q What impact, if any, would the UK’s failure to negotiate a trade deal
  have on your business’s expected turnover?

                                  Central                                                                          North West

                           27%                                                                                                      29%
                                                31%                                 29%                       30%                                              30%

                                                                         38%
     48%

                          19%
                                                            25%                                  38%                                            41%

                 Wave 7                                     Wave 8                              Wave 7                                          Wave 8

                  Disadvantage        Neutral           Advantage                                Disadvantage            Neutral          Advantage

                                  London                                                                            Scotland
                                                                                                                                          15%
                                                  27%                               27%

     42%
                                39%
                                                                                                                   44%                                          47%
                                                                         45%

                                                                                                                                   38%

                                                      28%                                 25%
                   16%

                 Wave 7                                     Wave 8                              Wave 7                                          Wave 8

                  Disadvantage        Neutral           Advantage                                Disadvantage            Neutral           Advantage

                   North East and Yorkshire                                                                         Southern

           24%                                                                                               23%                                          20%
                                                                        30%
                                                                                    33%                                            34%
                                                38%

                                46%

           32%                                                                                                                                           44%
                                                                  29%                                  40%

                 Wave 7                                      Wave 8                             Wave 7                                          Wave 8

                  Disadvantage        Neutral           Advantage                                Disadvantage            Neutral          Advantage

The Central region has seen a big shift in sentiment.                          In contrast the North East and Yorkshire region is more
Previously 48 per cent thought that a no deal Brexit would                     positive now than in previous waves, with a drop in those
be an advantage, but this has dropped down to 31 per cent.                     seeing no deal as a disadvantage down from 46 per cent to
                                                                               30 per cent and those seeing an advantage growing from 24
London has also seen a big drop in those seeing no deal as
                                                                               per cent to 38 per cent.
an advantage, down from 42 per cent to 27 per cent. The
majority however have swung to neutral.
12                                                                                                         Brexit Monitor Results

No deal scenario

Q Have you had to scale back or put on hold any other aspects of your
  business in preparation for a ‘No Deal’ scenario?

                              Aspects of business put on hold in preparation for no deal

       60%

       50%

       40%

       30%

       20%

       10%

        0%
             Infrastructure      IT projects   Recruitment       Product       Mergers and     Remuneration      Employee
               investment                                      development     acquisitions    for employees    engagement
                                                                                                                 activities

                          Manufacturing        Financial services   TMT       Construction      Consumer       ALL

Almost three in ten businesses have scaled back
on areas of their business in preparation for a no
deal scenario with IT projects (32 per cent) and
recruitment (32 per cent) being the most likely
                                                                    “     Middle market firms had done much to scale back
                                                                          already, but a more extreme and protracted form
                                                                            of contraction and consolidation is likely in the
                                                                           short term. How passive, conservative or brave
areas impacted.                                                             firms choose to be in the medium to long term
                                                                          will depend not only on the sectors in which they
Half of manufacturing firms have put product                              operate, but on their agility in the way that they
                                                                           prepare for future change. Just how businesses
development on hold and over half of TMT
                                                                           look to reactivate and reimagine their operating
businesses (51 per cent) have scaled back on                                   environments post-lockdown, whilst also
IT projects. Construction and manufacturing
firms are most likely to have scaled back on
                                                                             considering, strategizing and investing in the
                                                                                      ‘new normal’ will be crucial.
                                                                                                                                “
infrastructure investment (39 per cent).
                                                                      – Simon Hart
                                                                          RSM Partner, International
13                                                          Brexit Monitor Results

Five-point plan

Our five-point plan considers the far-reaching impact for many businesses,
bringing risk through uncertainty, but also creating new opportunities.

             Regulation and compliance              Financial planning and forecasting
             Maintaining compliance                 Forecasting the impact of
             with changing regulatory               decisions and price shock
             frameworks will be crucial to          uncertainty will be crucial to
             enabling a business to continue        maintaining business continuity.
             to operate and trade across the
             EU and non-EU countries as
             they do now.

             Trade                                  People and talent management
             Businesses need to consider the        Changes to UK immigration policy
             potential impact of increased          will have a profound effect and
             customs duties, greater                businesses should be thinking
             regulation causing delays to           about how they will continue to
             the movement of goods and              recruit and retain the right people
             services, and the effects on           to maintain business continuity
             cash-flow.                             and make the most of Brexit
                                                    opportunities.

             Business management
             Avoiding disruption to core
             operations and maintaining
             business continuity will require
             careful planning and may involve
             restructuring the business or
             acquiring additional entities in
             different jurisdictions.
14                                                                                     Brexit Monitor Results

Q Which of the following external shocks or events, if any, do you think
  pose the greatest potential risk to your business?

                              Wave 7                                              Wave 8

         21%                               17%                        25%                         20%
          Global                            Data                      Pandemics                  UK failure to
        recession                         breaches                                                negotiate
                                                                                                    a deal

         15%                               15%                         18%                         15%
     Foreign currency                    Depreciation                   Global                 Foreign currency
       fluctuations                      in value of £                recession                  fluctuations

                          15%                                                        15%
                        Fluctuation in                                               Chinese
                         commodity                                                  economic
                            prices                                                  downturn

Unsurprisingly, pandemics appear at the top of           deal as their biggest concern. A global recession
the list but still only a quarter of businesses feel     appeared lower down the list of concerns in
that this was the biggest risk in the future. It         this wave, but the concern around a Chinese
must be noted that the full impact of Covid-19           economic downturn has increased.
had perhaps not yet been fully realised by the
majority of respondents who will likely have             Other big concerns in the last wave around data/
completed the survey just prior to the UK                cyber, commodity prices and terrorism are less of
lockdown. One in five businesses note the                an issue this quarter.
UK government’s failure to negotiate a trade
15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Brexit Monitor Results

Q What actions, if any, has your business taken since the
  general election in December 2019?

                                                                                          Actions taken since the general election

     50%
     45%
     40%
     35%
     30%
     25%
     20%
     15%
     10%
      5%
      0%
                           non-EU markets
           Expanded / looking to expand into

                                                 employment legislation

                                                                               supplier contracts

                                                                                                         workers’ status

                                                                                                                              customer contracts

                                                                                                                                                          technical notices

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   subsidiaries or branches

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   export duties with the EU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  operations outside UK

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 and efficiency
                                                                                                                                                                                Lobbied the government

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Increased local recruitment
                                               Reviewed immigration and

                                                                          Reviewed / adjusted EU

                                                                                                    Reviewed existing EU

                                                                                                                           Reviewed / adjusted EU

                                                                                                                                                    Reviewed government’s

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Established or establishing EU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Adjusted for potential import /

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Moved / plan on moving

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Measures to increase productivity

                                                  Manufacturing                                           Financial services                                         TMT                                 Construction                                     Consumer                                        ALL

Following the general election in December, the                                                                                                                               Overall, more businesses are likely to have
construction sector has been far more active                                                                                                                                  expanded, or looked to expand, into non-EU
than any other sector, with almost half of                                                                                                                                    markets. The consumer sector is particularly
businesses in the industry having taken time to                                                                                                                               likely to have taken this option with 40 per cent
review immigration and employment legislation,                                                                                                                                of businesses having taken action in this area.
existing EU workers’ status, and EU supplier
contracts. The construction sector is also the
most likely to have established EU subsidiaries or
branches in the last few months.
16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Brexit Monitor Results

Q What actions, if any, has your business taken since the UK departure
  from the European Union on 31st January 2020?

                                                                                   Actions taken since the 31st January

     60%

     50%

     40%

     30%

     20%

     10%

     0%
                           non-EU markets

                                                 employment legislation

                                                                               workers’ status

                                                                                                      supplier contracts

                                                                                                                              customer contracts

                                                                                                                                                                       duties with the EU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              subsidiaries or branches

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           operations outside UK

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 technical notices
           Expanded / looking to expand into

                                                                                                                                                                                                Lobbied the government

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Increased local recruitment
                                               Reviewed immigration and

                                                                          Reviewed existing EU

                                                                                                 Reviewed / adjusted EU

                                                                                                                           Reviewed / adjusted EU

                                                                                                                                                    Adjusted for potential import / export

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Established or establishing EU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Moved / plan on moving

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Reviewed government’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and efficiency
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Measures to increase productivity

                                                  Manufacturing                                        Financial services                                                     TMT                                 Construction                                  Consumer                                               ALL

Manufacturing businesses are most likely to have                                                                                                                                             The construction sector is most likely to have
acted since the UK left the European Union at                                                                                                                                                taken measures to increase productivity and
the end of January. 53 per cent have reviewed                                                                                                                                                efficiency in the last two months.
immigration and employment legislation and 48
per cent have expanded or looked to expand into
non-EU markets.
17                                                                                                           Brexit Monitor Results

Q Thinking about the UK government’s proposed points-based system,
  which of the following views, if any, come closest to yours?

                           What is your view on the proposed points-based system?

      100%
       90%
       80%
       70%
       60%
       50%
       40%
       30%
       20%
       10%
        0%
                 Overall         Manufacturing      Financial services          TMT              Construction            Consumer

                             The new system will make it more difficult for my organisation to hire the people we need
                             The new system will have no impact on my organisation’s ability to hire
                             The new system will make it easier for my organisation to hire people we need

Overall, the feeling on the government’s proposed                   Across the sectors, 39 per cent of TMT and 36
points-based system is split, with 29 per cent                      per cent of financial services businesses believe
believing it will make hiring easier, 24 per cent                   the new system would make it easier for them
believing it will make hiring more difficult and 40                 to hire. In contrast, 31 per cent of consumer
per cent being neutral.                                             businesses and 28 per cent of manufacturing
                                                                    business think it will make hiring harder.
18                                                              Brexit Monitor Results

Q Which of the following, if any, do you feel are the most detrimental
  effects of being unable to retain staff?

                 42%                                  44%
                Hiring costs                        Training costs

                                    37%
                                  Reputational
                                     cost

                 46%                                  41%
                Productivity                         Morale cost
                   costs
19                                                                                                                                                               Brexit Monitor Results

Contact us
Simon Hart
Lead Brexit partner
T: 0203 201 8000
simon.hart@rsmuk.com

Ed Dewar
Senior PR Manager
T: 0203 201 8145
ed.dewar@rsmuk.com or
pressoffice@rsmuk.com

Sarah Plastow
NIS Research Manager
T +44 (0)20 8648 8048
sarah.plastow@rsmuk.com

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