Black Lives Matter - Post-election Survey | December 8, 2020
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Black Lives Matter – Post-election Survey | December 8, 2020
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1Trump's gains with Black men carried down ballot
and hurt Dem Senate candidates
Black male support for Republican candidates
If Black men turned out and supported Dem
senate candidates like Black women, they 19%
would’ve won
17% 93,457 votes
347,841
Ossoff 13%
would've gained…
5
68
3,
+7
10%
243,057
Cunningham
would’ve gained…
-8
19,772 votes 7%
2,4
62
5%
95,112 88,098 10,995 votes 2%
Perdue leads
Tillis won by just…
2014/ 2016 2020 2021
by just…
Trump Perdue Tillis
NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA
Source: BlackTrack by HIT Strategies post-election Poll, CNN Exit Polls, Data for Progress Election Night Project, BLM and HIT pollingTrump's gains with young Black voters also cost
Dem Senate candidates in close elections
95%
If under 45 Black voters turned out and supported
89%
Dem senate candidates like over 45 Black voters, 84% 83% 93%
they would’ve won 87%
78% 79%
161,570
Ossoff would've
gained…
Cunningham
would’ve gained… 123,016
95,633
86,667
Tillis won 15% 15%
Perdue leads
by just… by just…
9%
4%
11% 13%
9%
5%
18-29 30-44 45-64 65+
Biden Trump
Democratic Senate Candidate Republican Senate Candidate
NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA
Source: BlackTrack by HIT Strategies post-election Poll, NYT Exit Polls, Data for Progress Election Night Project8
Research Methodology
1. Explore reactions to Georgia election & recount to determine how it is shifting the political consciousness of Black Georgians.
Objectives 2. Determine motivating factors that pushed Black Georgians to vote or not vote.
3. Explore what messages would motivate Black Georgians to vote in the January 5, 2021, run-off election.
Sample Black voters in Georgia
Party ID
These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by
Size N = 484 HIT Strategies on behalf of Black Lives Matter. This survey
consisted of 500 voters in Georgia, who voted and did not
vote in the November general election. The survey was 20%
conducted via text-to-web and phone. The survey fielded
from November 24 –December 8, 2020, and the margin of
error is +/- 4.4% with a confidence level of 95%.
2%
Geo Georgia
78%
Democrat Republican OtherBlack voters are well positioned to flex9
Key Findings – Post-election Survey their power in the Georgia run-off
84% Believe their votes have the power to change
their communities
90% Care a great deal who wins the Senate run-off
elections
95% Name ID for both Warnock and Ossoff is near
universal
91% Would vote for Warnock and Ossoff if the
election were today
84% Plan to cast their votes before Election Day12
Run-Off Strategic Audiences
Infrequent Black Voters Black Non-voters Black Trump Voters Frequent Black voters
20% of GA Black voters in the 43% of eligible Black voters in GA 16% of Black voters in GA voted 33% of Black voters have voted in
2020 general election did not did not vote in the 2020 general for Trump and Republicans down the past 3 general and/or
vote in 2016 election election ballot municipal elections
These surge voters remain These non-voters remain These super voters are primarily
extremely engaged in the run-off disengaged and need to be These voters already appear to be women over age 45 and all voters
and do not need to be convinced convinced that the outcome will abandoning Purdue and Loeffler over age 65 and do not require
of this election's urgency impact their lives (3% support) but need to be much engagement to vote in the
convinced that a Dem Senate run-off
improves their lives.
Message Guidance:
How to vote (dates + process) Message Guidance: Message Guidance Message Guidance
Black Legislative Agenda Black Legislative Agenda
Black Power (Heroes Act, George Floyd (Heroes Act, George Floyd Nothing…put these resources
Criminal Justice Act, Preexisting Criminal Justice Act, Preexisting somewhere else
Black Legislative Agenda Conditions Act) Conditions Act)
How to vote (dates + process) Note: Black power message could
be demobilizing for these voters1 Political Climate 2 Run-off Election 3 Voting Process 4 Voting Values 5 Message Building 6 Shift Measurement
16
Most important issues facing Georgia remain
unchanged
What are the THREE (3) most important issues facing the state of Georgia today?
Racism and Discrimination 74%
Health Care 71%
Economic Inequality 69%
Criminal Justice Reform 45%
Voter Suppression 40%
Total Men Women Under 50 Over 50
Racism and Discrimination 74% 73% 76% 76% 73%
Health Care 71% 73% 69% 70% 71%
Economic Inequality 69% 65% 73% 69% 70%
Criminal Justice Reform 45% 41% 49% 48% 42%
Voter Suppression 40% 47% 34% 36% 44%19
Favorability – Georgia Senate Candidates
Dec 5: Rate how you feel about some people and organizations using a scale from 0 to 10.
Raphael Warnock 83% 7% 5% 5%
Jon Ossoff 82% 8% 5% 5%
David Perdue 6% 8% 80% 6%
Kelly Loeffler 5% 8% 77% 10%
Oct 15: Rate how you feel about some people and organizations using a scale from 0 to 10.
Raphael Warnock 69% 13% 6% 12%
Jon Ossoff 69% 13% 11% 7%
David Perdue 11% 14% 69% 6%
Kelly Loeffler 5% 10% 68% 17%
Pro (6-10) Neutral (5) Anti (0-4) Never Heard/No Opinion1 Political Climate 2 Run-off Election 3 Voting Process 4 Voting Values 5 Message Building 6 Shift Measurement
26
Black voters recognize their political power in
GA
No matter how frequently you vote, how much power do you feel that your vote has to change your community?
Total 74% 10% 11% 5%
Male 78% 9% 9% 4%
Female 72% 11% 14% 4%
Under 50 66% 12% 15% 7%
Over 50 83% 7% 8% 2%
Extremely powerful (8-10) Somewhat powerful (6-7) Not very powerful (3-5) Not powerful at all (0-2)27
Black Georgians care about the run-off election
Would
Would you
you say
say that
that you
you care
care aa good
good deal
deal about
about who
who wins
wins What is the most important reason for you to vote in the run-off election?
the
the upcoming
upcoming U.S.
U.S. Senate
Senate races
races in
in Georgia?
Georgia?
3% To elect Rev. Raphael Warnock to the U.S Senate 33%
1%
5%
To give Democrats control of the United States Senate 28%
It is our civic duty to vote/our ancestors fought for the
right to vote
28%
To elect John Ossoff to the U.S. Senate 24%
To fire Republican Senator David Purdue 16%
To strip Republicans control of the United States Senate 15%
90%
To fire Republican Senator Kelly Loffler 14%
Care a good deal Care a little bit To continue the process of turning Georgia blue 13%
Don’t care that much Don’t care at all
To advance a Black agenda 8%
To elect the first Black Senator from Georgia 7%28
Warnock and Ossoff are both consolidating
Black voters from GOP candidates
If the January 5, 2021, run-off election were held today, would you vote for…?
Democrat Raphael Warnock 90% Total Male Female Under 50 Over 50
Raphael Warnock 90% 91% 89% 87% 93%
Republican Kelly Loeffler 2%
Kelly Loeffler 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Undecided 6% Other 8% 7% 10% 11% 5%
Would not vote 2%
Democrat Jon Ossoff 90% Total Male Female Under 50 Over 50
Republican David Perdue Jon Ossoff 90% 91% 89% 89% 90%
2%
David Perdue 2% 2% 3% 2% 3%
Undecided 6%
Other 8% 7% 8% 9% 6%
Would not vote 2%
-13% reduction in support for GOP candidates since Nov 31 Political Climate 2 Run-off Election 3 Voting Process 4 Voting Values 5 Message Building 6 Shift Measurement
30
Majority of Black Georgians plan to vote early
How do you plan on voting in the upcoming January 5, 2021, run-off election for U.S. Senate?
52%
32%
10% 1% 2% 4%
Voting in person early, Voting in person on Voting absentee by Other Will not vote DK/REF
before January 5 January 5 mail
Total Men Women Under 50 Over 50
Voting in person early, before January 5 52% 52% 53% 52% 52%
Voting in person on January 5 10% 13% 8% 11% 9%
Voting absentee by mail 32% 30% 34% 30% 33%
Other 1% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Will not vote 2% 1% 2% 2% 1%
DK/REF 4% 5% 3% 3% 5%34
High Confidence in Fair and Accurate General
Election | Gender and Age
How confident are you that the Georgia general election was conducted fairly and accurately?
2% 1%
3% 2% 2% 2%
2%
4% 2% 4% 6% 2%
3% 4%
4% 10%
16%
17% Under Over
19%
Total Men Women
24% 50 50
Very confident 74% 78% 71% 63% 84%
Somewhat
17% 16% 19% 24% 10%
confident
84%
74%
78% Not very
71% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2%
63% confident
Not confident
4% 3% 4% 6% 2%
at all
DK/REF 2% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Total Male Female Under 50 Over 50
Very Confident Somewhat confident Not Very Confident
Not confident at all Dk/Ref1 Political Climate 2 Run-off Election 3 Voting Process 4 Voting Values 5 Message Building 6 Shift Measurement
36
Health care bills are two of the top three “very
important” bills to these respondents
How important are each of these bills for you when thinking about sending Democrats Warnock and Ossoff to the Senate to get this legislation passed?
Legislation Definitions
Violence Against Women’s Act 91%
Violence Against A bill provides resources for the investigation and
Women’s Act prosecution of violent crimes against women
Protecting Americans with Preexisting
90% Protecting Americans
Conditions Act with Preexisting A bill that protects Americans from being denied
Conditions Act insurance because of a preexisting condition
Strengthening Health Care and Lowering
Prescription Drug Costs Act
90% Strengthening Health
Care and Lowering A bill that ensures Obamacare is not repealed
Prescription Drug easily and that prescription drugs are affordable for
George Floyd Justice in Policing Act 87% all
Costs Act
George Floyd Justice A bill that ensures corrupt police are no longer
John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement in Policing Act
87% protected by their departments
Act John Lewis Voting This bill prevents states from implementing voter
Rights Advancement suppression techniques like voter roll purging and
Heroes Act (Coronavirus relief) 87% Act gerrymandering
Heroes Act A bill that provides relief to Americans and small
businesses impacted by coronavirus
Paycheck Fairness Act 77%
Paycheck Fairness A bill that punishes employers for retaliating
Act against employees for sharing wage and salary
Climate Action Now Act 70% information
Climate Action Now A bill that requires the president to meet the
Act criteria of the Paris Agreement on climate change
Bipartisan Background Checks Act 66% Bipartisan
Background Checks A bill that ensures that people who are prohibited
Act from gun possession cannot obtain a gun38
Messaging | Top Tier
[POSITIVE MESSAGE – POWERFUL VOTER] – Black voters are
the most powerful voters in Georgia. Because we stood Total 72%
together in historic turnout in this election, Georgia voted for
Men 71%
a Democrat for president for the first time since 1992,
delivering the defeating blow that ended Donald Trump’s Women 74%
72%
presidency. Now we have a chance to finish the job in the Under 50 68%
run-off election by electing Raphael Warnock and
Jon Ossoff to the U.S. Senate and flip control to Democrats Over 50 76%
so that our communities can finally get the resources we Shifted to more powerful 52%
need.
[POSITIVE – MESSAGE – REPRESENTATION] The United
States Senate is the most powerful law-making body in Total 70%
America and yields incredible power over the lives of every
Men 70%
American. That is why it is so important for us to elect more
Senators that reflect the diversity of America. As one of the Women 71%
most diverse states in America with one of the youngest 70%
populations, Georgia is uniquely positioned to send the Under 50 67%
3rd Black man and the 2nd millennial ever elected to the
Over 50 73%
United States senate. Black voters in Georgia have the power
to make the United States Senate look a lot more like Shifted to more powerful 66%
America.FT RA D
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