BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CRISIS: THE SARS-COV-2 PANDEMIC AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT STRATEGY - A GUIDELINE FOR ACTION
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Beyond the immediate crisis: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and public transport strategy A Guideline for Action
Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
The Mobility Institute Berlin (mib) is a consulting and research firm supporting the
transformation of urban mobility. Our activities are driven by one mission: To make cities more
liveable by enabling more likable mobility. Together with our clients from politics,
administrations, private and public companies, we develop clear visions for a sustainable future
of the mobility sector. Based on such visions, we formulate strategies and implementation
roadmaps. Our work is evidence-based, building on systematic data analytics and innovative
tools. Furthermore, we believe that proactive change management is key to successful
transformation. It is our conviction that public transport is the backbone of a comprehensive
sustainable mobility system that also includes pedestrians, cyclists, cars and new mobility
services.
Authors
Dr. Jörn Richert
Head of Consulting
jri@mobilityinstitute.com
Irene Cobián Martín
Business Development Manager
irc@mobilityinstitute.com
Samuel Schrader
Business Development Manager
sas@mobilityinstitute.com
Publisher
Mobility Institute Berlin (mib)
mib Mobility GmbH
Neue Schönhauser Straße 20
10178 Berlin
Contact:
info@mobilityinstitute.com
http://www.mobilityinstitute.com
© mib, 2020
Version 1.02i
1Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SARS-CoV-2ii has shocked the world. Urban mobility is no exception. #stayathome is not only
trending on social media, it is what most people do. With passenger numbers down by up to
95% in some European cities, public transport has been hit especially hard. Public transport
authorities and companies are doing everything they can to tackle the immediate operational
challenges that the crisis is confronting them with.
As we move from immediate crisis into the next phase of the pandemic, however, longer-term
strategic considerations come to the fore. This paper aims to clarify the medium- and longer-
term effects that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will have on urban mobility and public transport
strategy. We build on our reading of the most recent scientific debates on the pandemic, expert
mobility and public transport knowledge, and targeted interviews with public transport
operators, authorities and experts as well as with new mobility players.
Our major findings are:
The Pandemic Mobility Behavior Public Transport Strategy
The current crisis is only the While mobility demand will Beyond the current crisis
beginning. The SARS-CoV-2 rebound after the initial management, public
pandemic might last for crisis phase, it is likely to transport authorities and
several years. remain below pre-crisis companies need to
levels at least throughout formulate long-term
We are approaching a
the calibration phase. strategies.
second pandemic phase.
This calibration phase might Given the back-and-forth of It would be a mistake to
last until the second half of restrictions, mobility sideline or halt strategic
2021. demand will remain volatile initiatives just because they
throughout the calibration do not directly contribute
Until then, we might
phase. to crisis management.
experience repeated
infection waves and a back- Given its comparatively We find that five particular
and-forth between periods high perceived (and actual) initiatives have a crucial
of more and less restrictive infection risk, many people role to play in navigating
counter measures. might continue to avoid the pandemic in the years to
public transport over the come.
A full lift of restrictions
coming months.
remains unlikely until the These initiatives are public
pandemic concludes. For People are likely to get used transport offer expansion,
this to happen, an effective to a more flexible way of multi-modal integration,
vaccine needs to be choosing different trans- simple and flexible pricing,
developed and widely port modes from day to day. digitalization and building
distributed. agile organizations.
2Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
The pandemic: Crisis, calibration, and conclusion
It seems plausible that the SARS-CoV-2 It is important to note, however, that a lot
pandemic will last for several years: about SARS-CoV-2 still remains unclear.
Even though infection numbers make
In an initial crisis phase, governments across
Europe have tried to suppress the spread of
SARS-CoV-2 by substantially restricting Suppression Mitigation
social and economic life. These measures Set of strategies that reduce Set of strategies to slow the
the average number of spread of the virus and to
were essential in preventing an uncontrolled follow-on infections from an avoid overburdening the
spread of the virus. It is important to infected person (repro- public health system. Not
understand, however, that they mark the duction number, also called necessarily intending to
R) to below 1. bring R below 1.
beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
rather than its end.
Box 1: Strategies to fight SARS-CoV-2
Many countries are already approaching a
second, calibration phase that might last headlines every day, their reliability is low
until the second half of 2021. While given the great differences in testing across
measures are going to be relaxed during this geographies. With respect to the virus itself,
phase, we are likely to see continuing efforts furthermore, we do not yet fully understand
to mitigate the spread of the virus, such as the effect of rising temperatures on
softer forms of social distancing or a reproduction, the potential for future
continuing ban of large public events. mutations, or transmission pathways
Moreover, it is likely that we will experience beyond direct human contact.iii It is also
recurring waves of infections, during which unclear if existing drugs might be effective
more restrictive measures will have to be re- in treating COVID-19 or when a vaccine will
installed. be available. Political, economic, and societal
reactions to the virus bear additional
The pandemic will enter a conclusion phase
uncertainty.
only after a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine becomes
widely available. Even then, however, we Given these uncertainties, other scenarios
will not return to “pre-crisis normal”. SARS- are plausible too. A worst-case scenario, for
CoV-2 might never be defeated entirely, and example, might assume an unstopped (or
we might continue to see shorter and locally unstoppable) spread of SARS-CoV-2 and
specific mitigation or even suppression. some form of economic or even political
Moreover, the pandemic might lead to collapse. While such development cannot be
lasting changes in terms of the degree of ruled out entirely, the magnitude of
digitalization of peoples’ lives (e.g. home problems that society would face in this
office and e-learning) as well as with respect scenario is likely to render the future of
to hygiene norms and mobility behaviors. public transport a secondary concern.
A best-case scenario, in contrast, would
A pragmatic approach to scenarios suggest that SARS-CoV-2 would be
The introduction of this chapter outlines eradicated quickly, for example through an
what we consider a plausible scenario on unexpectedly speedy development of a
how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic might vaccine.iv In hindsight, the current crisis
evolve. Based on our best understanding of would look like a very dramatic but short-
epidemiological and virological research and lived interruption from an otherwise
debate, we further explore this scenario constant story.
throughout the chapter.
3Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Figure 1: Outlook on the potential development of the SARS-CoV- 2 pandemic
The strategic implications of such scenario sized enterprises are running into cash-flow
for urban mobility and public transport problems, putting their employees on short-
would be limited. We will nevertheless come time working or furlough, or laying them off
back to the best-case scenario when entirely.
discussing the strategic implications of
Furthermore, current measures might have
SARS-CoV-2. In the following, however, we
substantial negative effects on peoples’
focus on exploring a scenario that deals with
physical and psychological health.
the potentially severe challenges posed by
Consequently, the pressure to relax the far-
SARS-CoV-2.
reaching restrictions is growing.
Stage 1: Crisis
Stage 2: Calibration
Despite the sad news coming out of
After the initial crisis response, we are likely
Northern Italian hospitals and other parts of
to move into a prolonged calibration phase.
the continent, it is important to stress that
The challenge throughout this phase will be
Europe has – for now – avoided the risk of
to calibrate the response to SARS-CoV-2 in
an unchecked pandemic. Following the
a way that balances epidemiological
Italian lock-down of March 9, 2020, the
concerns with economic and societal
great majority of European countries
necessities. While this balancing act will
significantly restricted freedom of
result in a relaxation of restrictions, this will
movement and social interaction. For now,
most likely not mean a return to pre-crisis
these measures seem to be effective in
life.
suppressing (see box 1)v the spread of SARS-
CoV-2.
Back-and-forth between mitigation and
Most European citizens seem to go along suppression increases volatility
with government regulations and guidelines.
A sense of urgency and solidarity is widely Calibration is likely to take the form of a
shared. Homeschooling and home office back-and-forth between phases of
have become a part of the daily life in many mitigation and suppression. When infection
households across the continent. numbers are falling, the current suppression
strategy could be substituted by mitigation
Large parts of the economy have been shut strategies. Such mitigation would allow a
down. Despite the swift reaction of states return to a more normal social and economic
across Europe and the European Union – life. Two recent simulations suggest that
announcing support and guarantee schemes mitigation would still reduce social contacts
worth trillions of Euro – small and medium- by 25-40%. Even though this reduction is far
4Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
less radical than those 70-75% that the about their legitimacy and proportionality
simulations assume for suppression phases, arise and the economic situation worsens.
a move to mitigation would not mean a full Consequently, this might lead to policy
lift of restrictive measures.vi responses that are suboptimal from an
epidemiological standpoint, particularly in
Moreover, recurring waves of infection are
countries or regions facing elections.
possible. Suppressive measures might be re-
introduced whenever the numbers of new
critical COVID-19 cases exceed certain Continuous economic struggle and uncertainty
thresholds. Indeed, already today, countries about public spending
like Japan, Taiwan and Singapore are While economic activity may well pick up
experiencing what might be the onset of a during the calibration phase, ongoing
second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections. restrictions and recurrent periods of
The relative length of the suppression and suppression will create further challenges
mitigation periods is hard to foresee. One of for small and large businesses alike. The
the abovementioned simulations suggests revenue potential of cafes and restaurants,
that, over the coming months, it might be for example, might be reduced significantly
necessary to keep up suppression for by upholding social distancing rules.
roughly two thirds of the time.v Given the A swift economic recovery seems unlikely
inherent uncertainty of the current under these conditions, and unemployment
situation, however, this is but one rates might stay higher than before the
prediction. crisis. It remains unclear if and when
The concrete number, length, and intensity economies could return to a growth path.vii
of future infection waves remains unknown. Depending on pre-crisis conditions, the
It will depend on a variety of factors, such as severity of the crisis, and crisis response,
the impact that higher temperatures will developments might well look very different
have on the virus, potential mutations that from country to country.
might have an impact on the virus’ Furthermore, economic performance could
reproduction rate, the actual number of force states and municipalities to re-
infected individuals, the development of consider their spending practices.
critical care capacity in hospitals, Governments are facing a dual challenge:
innovations in the treatment of COVID-19, Economic rescue measures demand massive
new testing methods and practices, and the funds and, at the same time, lowered
effectiveness of quarantine and social economic activity and consumption result in
distancing measures as well as the reduced tax income. Under these
compliance with them. circumstances, states and municipalities will
be forced to re-prioritize their spending.
Reduced compliance and heated societal
debate might result in non-optimal measures Structural shift towards digitalization with
While most people in Europe have complied respect to work, education, and leisure
with initial restrictive measures, the fear of On a more structural level, finally, the
the virus might wear off, giving way to prolonged calibration phase might result in
growing crisis fatigue. As a result, the degree helping the digitalization of life to break
of compliance with restrictive measures through. By digitalization we mean the shift
might diminish. This, in turn, would increase from physical interaction to virtual
the risk of new infection waves. interaction in all parts of life, e.g. work,
Moreover, society is likely to become education, and leisure. The longer the
increasingly critical of restrictions, as doubts calibration phase lasts, the more likely it will
5Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
be that even hesitant individuals get used to handshakes, for example, are not certain to
home office, e-learning and videocalls with survive the pandemic. Extensive
friends. handwashing, sneezing into one’s elbow, or
wearing face masks in certain situations
Stage 3: Conclusion might also be here to stay.
The development of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine Altogether, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will
will be the game changer, signaling the start likely impact our lives for the years to come.
of a conclusion phase. 70 vaccine projects As the three presented phases show, the
are currently under way and some initial pandemic is likely to change its character
progress has been made.viii Nevertheless, over time. The transition between phases
vaccine candidates will have to go through will possibly take the form of gradual shifts
animal testing, clinical trials, and approval, rather than sudden changes. Moreover,
which takes time. Current estimates by the infection dynamics – particularly
World Health Organization (WHO) and throughout the calibration phase – might
experts suggest that it might take around 18 look very different from country to country,
months before a vaccine will be readily as they depend on political decisions and
available.ix societal compliance with restrictive
measures.
Even though a few vaccine projects have
skipped the animal testing stage and already Despite these remaining uncertainties,
started small-scale human trials, the 18- however, the three phases help us to clarify
month timeline continues to appear the implications of SARS-CoV-2 for urban
ambitious. As Peter Hotez, a leading expert mobility and public transport. We will
on infectious disease and vaccine explore these implications in the following
development at Baylor College of Medicine, chapters.
puts it, developing a vaccine in 18 months
might be possible only if “all stars align”.x
Production and dissemination might take
additional time. xi The resulting delay might
depend on production capacities at the time
of approval, the country in which the vaccine
is developed, and arrangements to share it
among states. In addition, limited availability
might require a sequenced approach to
vaccination. High-risk individuals and
employees in highly exposed occupations
may be vaccinated first, while the broader
public would have to wait until enough
vaccine doses are available.
Both economically as well as societally, the
conclusion phase will signal a slow recovery.
However, some aspects of life might have
changed forever. First, the abovementioned
digitalization is likely to remain, having an
impact both on the structure of the
economy as well as on daily habits and
routines. Furthermore, new societal norms
are likely to stick. Welcoming hugs and
6Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Mobility behavior: Demand, volatility and modal choice
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will have public transport is likely to regain
substantial effects on mobility behavior in popularity when the epidemic concludes,
the coming years. Overall, mobility demand the growing taste for flexibility might
is likely to rebound after a radical drop remain one of the longer-term implications
during the crisis phase. However, ongoing of SARS-CoV-2.
restrictions and fear of infection are likely
to keep overall demand way below previous Stage 1: Crisis
levels throughout the calibration phase. A
substantial recovery of demand becomes With the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis,
more likely towards the conclusion of the mobility demand has dropped radically
pandemic. Even then, notwithstanding, the across Europe. In Germany, for example,
increasing popularity of home office, e- nationwide mobile phone tracking data
learning and similar activities might leave suggests that the average daily travel
overall demand below pre-crisis levels. distances shrank by 47% between late
February and late March 2020.xii
We might furthermore see a substantial
increase in demand volatility, particularly Moreover, the data shows a clear shift in
in the calibration phase in which recurring transport modes (see figure 3). Cycling has
waves of infection might require renewed turned out to be the transport mode of the
periods of virus suppression (see box 1, moment with its modal share more than
previous chapter). tripling. The modal share of walking almost
doubled and that of cars increased by
In terms of modal choice, finally, crisis roughly 10%. The modal share of public
phase observations might suggest a shift transport, in contrast, decreased by about
from public transport towards individual one third.
forms of transportation. At the same time,
however, it is by far not clear if this effect Further data shows that, in major German
will be long-lasting. cities as well as in capitals across Europe,
public transport demand shrank by roughly
Furthermore, we might find that people 75 to 95% (see figure 4).xiii
adapt to the overall volatility throughout
the calibration phase and become
increasingly flexible in choosing their
preferred mode of transportation. While
Figure 2: Outlook on the mobility behavior during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
7Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Figure 3: Development of modal split in Germany from End of February to End of March, 2020
Figure 4: Volume of Apple Maps directions requests per city relative to January 13, 2020
8Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Interestingly, the case of Germany shows Berlin, for example, finds that public
that public transport was not affected transport use might be responsible for
evenly by the crisis. While all modes roughly 10% of overall infections.xvi
experienced a loss of ridership, buses lost
A simulation study on a hypothetical
riders roughly proportionally to the overall
influenza epidemic in New York City, in
decline in mobility demand. Trains, in
contrast, suggests only roughly 4% of
contrast, were hit much harder (see figure
infections occurred in the subway system
3, right side). This phenomenon has also
while around 30% occurred in households,
been observed by the Institute for
roughly 25% in schools and approximately
Transportation and Development Policy
9% at the workplace.xvii A plausible
(ITDP). The organization hypothesizes that
explanation for the lower infection number
users tend to favor buses over the use of
when compared to the Berlin study might
metro lines due to perceived difficulties to
be the New York study’s exclusive focus on
uphold social distancing in underground
subways rather than the entire public
spaces.xiv
transport system.
New urban mobility services also reacted
A third, comparable simulation explores a
drastically to the crisis: Berlin-based ride-
hypothetical influenza pandemic in Beijing.
sharing service Berlkönig, for example,
The study suggests that a closure of public
closed its regular service and focused on
transport might reduce the number of
transporting medical staff free of charge
hospitalized influenza cases by 20%.
instead. Similarly, the car sharing service
Nevertheless, this number is likely to
Share Now started to offer special rates for
overestimate the effect of public transport
personnel in critical positions (for example,
for methodological reasons.xviii
medical and essential services staff). E-
scooter sharers, such as Lime, stopped their
operations altogether. People tend to overestimate the risk of public
transport, but then ignore their own advice
Interlude: Scientific insights on pandemics and While the actual risk of infection is one
public transport thing, perceived risk and behavior is quite
another. Indeed, empirical studies on
When exploring the effect of the pandemic
previous epidemics, such as SARS (2002–
on future mobility demand, studies on
2003) and A(H7N9) (2013–2017) or
previous epidemic and pandemic events
pandemics, such as the Swine flu (2009–
help shedding some light on potential
2010)xix, show a rather ambiguous picture.
developments – particularly when it comes
to public transport. On the one hand, public transport tends to
feature high up on the list of places to avoid
Clear infection risk in public transport, but during times of high risk of infection. When
unclear impact on overall infections asked about precautionary measures in
case of a hypothetical influenza pandemic,
While there remains some controversy, Europeans ranked public transport as the
science suggests that public transport riskiest place to be (56% of respondents).
usage increases the risk of infection with Moreover, 79% of respondents reported
acute respiratory infections or influenza- they would themselves avoid public
like-illnesses.xv transport.xx
It is still somewhat unclear, however, how However, this high attention does not
large the overall effect of infections in necessarily translate into action. In Hong
public transport is. The early version of a Kong, the link between risk perception and
simulation on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in action was surveyed during the combined
9Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
occurrence of the second epidemic wave of that it took roughly 28 days until all
the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus and the “residual fear” had passed and passenger
winter peak of seasonal influenza in 2014. numbers were back to normal.xxv Similar
When asked about their strategies to patterns of fresh and residual fear were
reduce risk of infection, roughly 60% of also observed in Hong Kong during the
respondents suggested to avoid public SARS pandemic.xxvi
places and public transport. However, only
7% did actually do so.xxi
Taken together, these scientific findings
Studies from the UK and Spain report
suggest three things: First, given the actual
similar patterns. UK citizens were
risks of infection, adapting one’s modal
interviewed around two weeks after the
choice is a viable way of managing risk
Swine Flu had reached the UK in April
exposure. Second, stated risk perceptions
2009. While around 48% of respondents
and intended avoidance strategies do not
either strongly agreed or tended to agree
necessarily translate into action. Published
that reducing public transport use would be
numbers that merely display intended
an effective response to the virus, only
behavior should thus be taken with a grain
2.8% had actually reduced their use of
of salt. And third, those people who do
public transport.xxii In another study on risk
avoid public transport seem to do so
avoidance behavior during the 2009–2010
because of reported infection numbers
Swine Flu pandemic in Spain, only circa 3%
rather than reported deaths. After avoiding
of respondents reported that they did
public transport, it takes them roughly a
actually avoid public transport to reduce
month to get fully back to normal – in case
risk of infection.xxiii
no further critical developments occur.
Fear-induced public transport avoidance With these insights in mind, we now turn to
decreases over time exploring mobility behavior throughout the
calibration phase.
Finally, what does science tell us about
rebound effects after a crisis? A study
Stage 2: Calibration
about the impact of the SARS epidemic in
Beijing shows that public transport usage Mobility demand is likely to increase
collapsed by over 60% at the peak of throughout the calibration phase as
infections in April 2003. While infection restrictive measures are relaxed, crisis
numbers approached zero during the fatigue grows, and the immunity within the
second half of May 2003, it took until early population slowly increases. Yet, mobility
July for ridership to roughly get back to demand might remain well below pre-crisis
normal.xxiv levels, at least in the earlier stage of the
calibration phase. Within the context of a
A SARS study conducted in Taipei suggests
struggling economy, ongoing
that this pattern can be explained by a
unemployment would keep on depressing
combination of what the authors call “fresh
mobilty demand, and so would a persistent
fear” and “residual fear”. The study found
degree of digitalization of social life.
patterns similar to those in Beijing. They
found out that initial drops in ridership Demand volatility is likely to increase
were proportional to the number of newly substantially during the calibration phase
published SARS cases. Importantly, the as a result of the back-and-forth between
drop in passengers was proportional to suppression and mitigation measures (see
reported infections and not to the reported preceeding chapter). Moreover, parts of
deaths. This immediate “fresh fear” effect society could be inclined to
would then tail off over time. Results show overcompensate the periodical loss of
10Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Transportation modes have distinct risk profiles
Schematic evaluation of infection risk perception per transport mode
Increasing level of perceived risk
Ride sharing
Public transport
Ride hailing
E-Scooter sharing
Car sharing
Scooter-/ Bike sharing
Private vehicles
Perceived infectionrisk
Through people: Operator Passengers
Figure 5: Comparison of risk perception per transport mode Through surfaces: Outdoors Indoors Critical
mobility whenever measures are relaxed, and subjective risk perception. Users could
further adding to demand volatility. swiftly switch from public transport to
private car or bike – and back.
With respect to modal choice, public
transport may continue to suffer. After the
current virus outbreak has been brought Stage 3: Conclusion
under control, residual fear is likely to In the conclusion phase, mobility demand is
linger on for several weeks. Only as residual likely to rebound closer to pre-crisis levels.
fear wears off, higher-risk modes of Most restrictive measures will be relaxed,
transportation might become attractive and new behavioral (and maybe legal)
again. An indicative comparison of norms will reinstate trust. Wearing face
transport modes shows the relatively high masks in public transport, for example,
risk associated with public transport use could be one of such trust-building
(see figure 5) This suggests that public behaviors. Vaccination-induced immunity
transport would become an increasingly will furthermore reduce the fear (as well as
viable option only when residual fear has the actual vulnerability) of broad parts of
mostly vanished. society.
Under these conditions, public transport At the same time, some factors might
would profit from longer time spans prevent demand to go fully back to pre-
between infection waves. Should infection crisis levels. Depending on the economic
waves come in rapid succession, in contrast, situation, we might continue to see higher-
it would be difficult for public transport to than-previous unemployment in some
regain significant amounts of passengers. countries. Moreover, an overall higher
Besides, given the high degree of volatility degree of digitalization is likely to be one of
throughout the calibration phase, people the long-term effects of the crisis.
might want to re-evaluate their modal Particularly in the area of work and
choice on a weekly if not daily basis, education, this might have a long-term
depending on the current crisis situation effect on mobility demand. Indeed, in a
survey among German employees, roughly
11Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
two thirds of the respondents stated that popularity in the long term, whereas private
they would like to work from home more car use may stay about the same (see figure
frequently in the future.xxvii Preliminary 6). The data also shows that changes in the
results of a study surveying employees in use of public transport might be the most
the UK show similar results. 29% of pronounced. Only 52% of respondents
respondents across all age groups would stated their use of public transport would
want to re-balance time between home stay the same. However, the coming change
office and physical offices in the long term. must not necessarily be a negative one.
17% of respondents would even want to While 19% of respondents suggested they
work from home entirely. The authors would use public transport less frequently
suggest that this might result in a 20-25% in the future, roughly the same amount of
decrease in overall commutes.xxviii people (17%) might use public transport
even more than before the crisis.xxix
Demand volatility is likely to
be driven by two
counteracting effects – one
increasing volatility, the other
one reducing it. First, an
occasional recurrence of local
surges in SARS-CoV-2
infections might provoke the
reinstallation of restrictions
for those parts of society not
yet immune to the virus.
Secondly, current experiences
with more flexible work
arrangements might not only
affect the overall number of
commuters. They might also
serve as a catalyst for more
flexible working hours in the Figure 6: Change of transport mode usage after the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.xxixxxix
longer run. Such flexibility
might reduce peak demand and help to Additionally, it is likely that some
distribute passengers more evenly across behavioral changes might stick. Public
the day, for example, when people decide to transport companies and authorities might
work from home in the morning, commute be confronted with increased expectations
to work during lunch break and spend the regarding flexibility (e.g. in pricing schemes)
rest of the day in the office for meetings. and multi-modal integration after
passengers have gotten used to these
Finally, the overall modal share of public features throughout the calibration phase.
transport is likely to recover throughout
the conclusion phase. Public transport will Overall, urban mobility will change a lot
continue to profit from new behavioral and across the different phases of the
legal norms, and immunity will make the pandemic. It is important to note that the
use of public transport less risky. While developments explored here assume no
some suggest that the private car might be explicit strategic measures taken by public
the big winner of the SARS-CoV-2 transport authorities and companies. In the
pandemic, available data seems to next chapter, we explore what the latter
contradict this assumption. A recent survey can do to improve the position of public
among German citizens suggests that only transport throughout the pandemic.
cycling and walking might significantly gain
12Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Public transport strategy: The importance of core initiatives
Public transport authorities and companies
“Nobody was prepared for this” - Public Transport
are doing everything they can to tackle the
Operation Manager in Southern Europe
immediate operational challenges that the
SARS-CoV-2 crisis is confronting them
Such scenario remains a possibility. It is
with. For example, they increased the
thus important to stress that the strategic
cleaning and disinfection of vehicles and
initiatives explored in this chapter are
stations, took further actions to protect
”future-proof”, meaning that they will bring
staff and passengers, and implemented new
substantial benefits both in a best-case
occupancy limitations to enable social
scenario as well as in a scenario focused on
distancing.
challenges.
These measures are essential immediate
In some cases, their added value might be
reactions to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. As
different across scenarios. Take the case of
we move from the crisis phase to the
public transport offer expansion, for
calibration phase of the pandemic,
instance: In the best-case scenario, this
however, longer-term strategic
strategy remains essential to promote
considerations come to the fore.
public transport and thereby makes urban
In this chapter, we explore these longer- mobility more accessible and sustainable. In
term considerations. While some people the scenario that focuses on the challenges
question the long-term viability of public of the pandemic, it is just as important.
transport, we find that it remains the However, particularly during the next two
essential backbone of urban mobility. years, its major value added will not
necessarily lie in winning new customers,
It is important, moreover, to continue but in two other aspects: Letting previous
pushing for a transformation of the sector. customers back into the system while
Major strategic initiatives should not be adhering to social distancing, and providing
sidelined or halted. On the contrary, we direct and city-specific economic stimuli
find that these initiatives – namely through associated infrastructure projects.
expanding the public transport offer, multi-
modal integration, simple and flexible
There is no alternative to public transport as
pricing, pushing digitalization and building
the backbone of urban mobility
agile organizations – have a crucial role to
play in navigating the pandemic in the years Urban mobility has faced fundamental
to come. challenges way before the SARS-CoV-2
pandemic, such as overwhelming
We build the following discussion based on
congestion and climate and air quality
the insights generated in the preceding two
concerns. Public transport has been a key
chapters. We furthermore conducted circa
factor in tackling these challenges. But
20 interviews with public transport
given the grave impact of the SARS -CoV-2
operators, authorities and experts as well
pandemic, should we reconsider the
as with new mobility players from across
strategic importance of public transport in
Europe as well as from East Asia, the
urban mobility?
Middle East and Latin America.
To put it simply: No. There is no alternative
As suggested previously, this paper focuses
to public transport in urban mobility.
on a scenario that zooms in on anticipated
Indeed, many people have announced the
challenges. Nevertheless, we also briefly
great comeback of the private car.
discussed a potential best-case scenario.
13Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Considering the varying risk profiles across car ownership would overburden public
transport modes (see figure 5, previous urban space.
chapter), such suggestion might seem
plausible. However, the survey data Expanding the public transport offer remains
presented in the previous chapter does not fundamental
show clear evidence that people are going
to avoid public transport in the longer run. But does it make sense to expand the public
It is thus likely that the demand for public transport offer? Here, too, the answer is
transport services will persist. yes. Expanding offer remains an essential
strategy for the future of urban mobility. In
“Right now, we are convincing people to stop using public pre-pandemic times, this strategy was
transport, and afterwards we will need to convince them to important for the aforementioned reasons:
come back” - Public Transport Organization Coordinator in fighting congestion as well as air pollution
Eastern Europe and climate change. SARS-CoV-2 does not
change the importance of this agenda.
Moreover, attractive public transport is
However, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic adds
also essential when considering the
further reasons for expanding public
continuing or even growing pressure on
transport. In the short term, these reasons
urban public space. Figure 7 presents a
primarily concern the bus system, since it is
thought experiment showing the effect on
likely that the customers’ preference for
public space that a radical reduction of
buses over trains and trams will persist
public transport would have. Building on
until residual fear tails off substantially.
the crisis-phase modal shift previously
Nonetheless, strategic considerations with
presented, the figure assumes a
respect to rail-based modes of
hypothetical halving of public transport’s
transportation should not be disregarded,
modal share in the post-pandemic future. It
since they remain essential for urban
furthermore assumes that roughly half of
mobility in the long run.
this share shifts to private cars. The result
quickly shows how such a growth in private
Pre-crisis space requirements of transport modes Hypothetical post-crisis space requirements
Relative space requirements, Berlin example Based on assumption that public transport modal share is halved
Additional space taken up by cars
Figure 7: Representation of relative space used by vehicles and people. Infrastructure is not considered. Variation between maps is based on
hypothetical change in modal split: Pre-crisis based on 2018 Berlin modal split, hypothetical post-crisis assuming that modal share of public
transport decreases by 50%, and the modal shares of cars, bikes and walking go up by 7.5%, 4% and 2% respectively. Shared assumptions:
Constant overall mobility demand, based on assumption that mobility demand p.c. might approach pre-crisis levels in the conclusion phase and
cities are likely to grow further. Constant occupancy of 1.3 individuals per car and 40 individuals per bus. Constant space requirements of 1 sqm
per pedestrian, 2 sqm per biker, 10 sqm per car and 30 sqm per bus.
14Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
“Keeping social distancing with a growing number of Multi-modal integration creates flexibility and
passengers is a real challenge in public transport” - Public responds to customer preferences
Transport Planning Lead in Latin America
The integration of new mobility services
into a multi-modal mobility offer is another
The following are key aspects of offer
field of essential strategic action. Over
expansion strategies in times of the SARS-
recent years, new mobility services have
CoV-2 pandemic:
expanded radically. Shared cars, bikes, and
• Some degree of social distancing is different kinds of scooters are now widely
likely to persist, at least until the available across cities, and so are ride
second half of 2021. This reduces hailing and sharing services.
the number of users that public If and how these services contribute to a
transport can bring on board. Thus, sustainable and effective urban mobility
more capacity will be needed to ecosystem is intensely debated. Ride hailing
accommodate those passengers providers such as Uber and Lyft, for
who will come back as soon as
example, have been proven to create more
suppressive measures are lifted. congestion.xxx E-Scooters have also been
• The pandemic provides a critical blamed for being unsafe, taking up public
window of opportunity for offer space and lacking economic and
expansion. The current situation environmental sustainability.
might make things possible (e.g.
pop-up bus and bike lanes) that Nevertheless, public transport is beginning
would otherwise not have seemed to explore areas of cooperation with some
viable. The pandemic thus provides
a chance to implement measures “We strongly believe in Mobility-as-a-Service and flexible
and run trials that could become services, but mass transit needs to be the backbone” -
permanent in the longer run. Public Transport Organization Vice President in Northern
• Thinking some months ahead, Europe
furthermore, expanding public
transport can function as direct and new mobility players such as on-demand
city-specific economic stimuli. This ride sharing services. These services follow
is particularly true for a business model closer to that of mass
infrastructure projects, such as new, public transport, using larger vehicles to
dedicated bus lanes, new bus stops pool multiple passengers.
or whole new metro lines.
Examples for cooperation include Berlin’s
Importantly, infrastructure design
public transport provider BVG, who teamed
will need to take into account the
up with ViaVan to create the ride sharing
longer-term potential for recurrent
service Berlkönig. In another example, the
social distancing measures.
municipality of Sant Cugat, in the Barcelona
• Finally, particularly train and metro
province, worked with on-demand mobility
projects are very long-term. While
provider Shotl to connect neighborhoods to
they start stimulating local
train stations. In the context of the SARS-
economies from the beginning of
CoV-2 crisis, MOIA – another ride sharing
construction, their effect on urban
provider – began cooperating with the
mobility needs time. Even if the
Hamburg Transport Association (HVV) to
pandemic goes on for several years,
take over certain night services.
it is likely to be defeated for the
most part by the time those projects In some cases, public transport companies
that are now in planning would start have gone even further by integrating
operating. several mobility services into one combined
15Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
offer. Within its Jelbi App, BVG offers mobility players are suffering from
public transport, its Berlkönig offer, as well the pandemic too. This might
as shared cars, bikes and different kinds of increase their willingness to discuss
a more thorough integration into
“Our multi-modal offer helps us to rebuild trust in public city-wide collaboration schemes
transport and to flexibly react to crisis developments” – that do not exclusively focus on
Public Multi-Modal Platform Chief in Norther Europe clustering their services and assets
in city centers.
scooters that are operated by cooperation • In the long term, multi-modal offers
partners. Jelbi also provides initial evidence might become even more
of the advantage of such multi-modal important. As discussed in the
platforms in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 previous chapter, the pandemic is
pandemic. Between January and April likely to have a sustained effect on
2020, the app experienced a 90% decline in customer preferences. Users’ thirst
public transport bookings. At the same for flexibility is likely to last beyond
time, however, the booking of shared the crisis. In the longer run,
services increased by 6% with a focus on therefore, passengers might simply
shared bikes. These figures point towards come to expect a much higher
the essential value added by multi-modal degree of multi-modal integration
integration in navigating the SARS-CoV-2 from their public transport
pandemic: providers.
• Multi-modal integration can help
public transport to generate Simple and flexible pricing creates customer
customer loyalty by keeping them trust
within their own public-transport- Pricing is an essential and contested
centric ecosystem/app even in component of public transport services.
volatile times. Within this eco- The 365-EUR ticket introduced in Vienna
system users can move from the bus has led to much debate. Luxemburg even
to shared cars or bikes when made public transport entirely free of
infection numbers rise. More charge. While attractive for passengers,
importantly even, they can move these initiatives have also generated
back to bus and train just as quickly criticism: They would be expensive for
when infection risk decreases. authorities and companies, might not make
• Moreover, multi-modal solutions people leave their cars at home, and would
can help to reduce the not be effective without a parallel
abovementioned demand pressure expansion of public transport offer and
on bus systems throughout the quality.xxxi
calibration phase. When bus
occupancy reaches the limits Other cities, such as London, have chosen
induced by social distancing, for another way by installing pay-as-you-go
example, passengers could be asked ticketing systems. The London system
to move from buses to shared bikes includes automatic payment caps that kick
or scooters. Such strategy would in when certain daily or weekly limits are
ensure continuous mobility while reached. Without having to engage in a
reducing infection risks. debate about free public transport, such
• Moreover, the SARS-CoV-2 flexible pricing systems can substantially
pandemic opens a crucial window of help to navigate the SARS-CoV-2
opportunity for negotiating multi- pandemic.
modal integration. Many new
16Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
Indeed, in Hong Kong, the local Octopus vehicles and stations in times of
Card system has been leveraged to take higher risks of infection.
quick action to counter the effect of the • In the longer run, such flexible
SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Operators pricing schemes can be merged with
extended the validity of digital public the multi-modal integration
described above, allowing for
“One centralized payment platform that can process innovative mobility-as-a-service
transactions immediately across different modes is solutions that might generate new
essential to acknowledge people’s value of time” – Mobility business opportunities for the more
Smart Card Payment Expert in East Asia progressive public transport
companies.
transport passes within the system, and the
government has increased transportation Digitalization holds great potential to support
subsidies by reimbursing one third of fare the transformation of public transport
payments as soon as passengers spend over
200 Hong Kong Dollars a month on the Digitalization comprises a variety of
system. Aggregated statistical data phenomena that range from the growing
generated within the Octopus system is general importance of doing things online,
furthermore used to cooperate with the through the development of new, often
Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong app-based business models, to the rise of
Kong, in researching to contain the spread cloud computing, big data analytics, and
of the pandemic. artificial intelligence. These themes have
been on the top of the economic and
More broadly speaking, simple and flexible
pricing schemes can help in navigating the “Embracing innovation, including digitalization, will be key
SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in several ways: to the survival of public transport” - Public Transport
Strategic Planner in Southern Europe
• As the Hong Kong example shows,
digital pricing models can be
adopted quickly to reward political agenda for years.
passengers for their loyalty, be it in Digitalization also holds great potential for
terms of prolonging the validity of public transport, both with respect to user
tickets or giving them discounts on interaction as well as to the improvement
future purchases. of internal processes and operations.
• Simple and flexible pricing schemes However, the sector is embracing the full
can help generating customer trust. potential of digitalization only slowly.
Given the risk of new infection
waves throughout the calibration As outlined in the previous chapters, the
phase, monthly or even annual pandemic is already pushing digitalization
public transport tickets become in various areas, such as working and
unattractive. Riding on individual learning from home. For public transport
tickets, in contrast, is more authorities and companies, however,
expensive. Simple pricing schemes digitalization has a much larger potential
and payment caps can re-assure than simply allowing for work from home:
passengers that they will always use
• Digitalization is a fundamental
the most favorable fare.
building block of multi-modal
• Intelligent and dynamic pricing
integration and simple and flexible
could furthermore be used to
pricing schemes, as highlighted
influence travel flows and thus
above. Flexible pricing, for instance,
regulate the crowdedness of
builds on ridership analytics,
17Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
automatically assigning and capping Agile organizations are faster and more
fares, and undertaking automatic effective in crisis response and transformation
payment processes. All these
The term “agile” refers to a specific working
demand a high degree of
style that originates in software
digitalization.
development but has gained traction in a
• Online ticketing, more generally,
much wider range of activities and
significantly reduces infection risks.
organizations by now.xxxii It highlights self-
It helps users to avoid interaction
directed work in small, cross-functional
with physical surfaces, tickets and
teams. Such work is structured in
cash when purchasing or validating
consecutive iterative cycles (sprints) and
tickets. In buses, this effect is
prioritizes the fast testing of prototypes
particularly high when compared to
over long-term, waterfall-style project
a situation where tickets are
management.
purchased directly from the driver.
• Direct and real-time communication Here, we use the term “agile” in a somewhat
is another key advantage of digital broader sense to refer to an organization
channels. Mobile push notifications, that is capable of making fast and well-
for example, efficiently update informed decisions, that can quickly adapt
passengers on changes in risk levels to the apparent volatility throughout the
and public transport service. pandemic, and that can implement
• Data analytics and AI tools, initiatives in a target-oriented and fast way.
furthermore, can help generating
systematic and near-real-time Building such organization might not have
information about occupancy, travel been a major priority for most public
flows and system bottlenecks. On transport companies and authorities until
one hand, such data can inform now. However, as the preceding chapters
passengers about the crowdedness show, the public transport sector will
of different routing options, helping confront an unprecedented level of
them to make informed travel volatility. It is likely that it will have to
decisions. On the other hand, it can handle great fluctuations in passenger
help operators to adapt their numbers, changing safety and hygiene
services and reduce the occurrence regulations, a higher volatility in the
of bottlenecks. workforce, and potential bankruptcies or
• Finally, internal operations and impediments of 3rd party service providers
workflows also profit from process and suppliers.
digitalization, big data analytics and In such a situation, it is essential to be agile
AI. These help to analyze, visualize in the sense outlined above. Moreover, an
and handle increased volatility in, agile organization is much more likely to
for example, human resources, effectively and quickly pilot the initiatives
operations and maintenance as well discussed in this chapter so far:
as in procurement. In HR, for
example, dynamic workforce • A crisis reaction team can help to
planning can help avoiding short- constantly monitor the pandemic
term driver shortages. It can also and to design, prioritize and kick off
assist in tracing infection dynamics initiatives to respond to the changes
among employees and thus help to and challenges identified. Four
contain follow-on infections. things help to ensure the
effectiveness of such team: A direct
report to senior management,
clearly defined interfaces with
18Beyond the immediate crisis – A guideline for action
strategy, operations, and other core helping them to create the
departments, access to data conditions under which they can
analytics, and capacities for effectively reach their goals.
scenario-planning as a tool to • Furthermore, systematically
anticipate potential future analyzing and redesigning core
developments and increase processes, such as the planning of
preparedness. new bus lines, can free up essential
• Agile teams, following the more resources and increase the speed of
specific working methods outlined an organization substantially. Such
above, can help greatly in redesign should leverage new
implementing the strategic digital tools and have a radical focus
initiatives discussed so far. They can on the final outcome of a process.
also help implementing short-term • Finally, for organizations that have
operational adjustments made long operated in a rather steady-
necessary by the pandemic - for state environment, it is key to
example the installation of pop-up accompany the above initiatives
bike or bus lanes. Building on agile with active change management.
teams means to focus on concrete Willing employees might embrace
and applied pilot projects, bring new ways of working. However,
these into action quickly, and learn more reluctant employees also need
and adapt on the way. to be brought on board, since they
• An overarching Project will need to apply new processes
Management Office (PMO), closely and interact with more agile teams.
related to the crisis reaction team, To win these employees over,
can help oversee ongoing projects, leadership commitment and a
track progress, and intervene in communication of early successes
case expectations are not met. It is and improvements are crucial.
essential that the PMO takes a Moreover, employees need to be
proactive role in engaging with convinced of the value of new
project teams, challenging them on processes, and they need to be
the quality of their outputs and trained to apply them.
19i
Version 1.02 contains additional information on SARS-CoV-2 (see ii) and “fresh” and “residual” fear in
the Mobility Chapter, including minor visual adaptions
ii
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. A new type of coronaviruses, causing the disease
COVID-19.
iii
For initial tests in this regard see:
Alex W H Chin et al., “Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Environmental Conditions,” The Lancet Microbe, April
2020, 1–1.
iv
Matthias Horx, “Die Welt Nach Corona: Wie Wir Uns Wundern Werden, Wenn Die Krise Vorbei Ist,”
Kress News, March 19, 2020.
v
N. Ferguson et al., “Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19
Mortality and Healthcare Demand,” Report, March 16, 2020.
vi
Patrick GT Walker et al., “Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and
Suppression” (Imperial College London, March 26, 2020).
vii
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Martin Reeves, and Paul Swartz, “Understanding the Economic Shock of
Coronavirus,” Harvard Business Review, March 27, 2020.
viii
The number of projects reflects WHO official figures as per
“DRAFT Landscape of COVID-19 Candidate Vaccines” (WHO, April 11, 2020).
ix
“Meeting of Top Scientists Underway to Slow Coronavirus Spread,” UN News, February 11, 2020.
x
Robert Kuznia, “The Timetable for a Coronavirus Vaccine Is 18 Months. Experts Say That’s Risky,” CNN,
April 1, 2020.
xi
Shawn Radcliffe, “How Long Will It Take to Develop a Vaccine for Coronavirus?,” Healthline, January
30, 2020.
xii
Data by courtesy of MOTIONTAG. Numbers compare last week of February to last week of March
2020. MOTIONTAG uses smartphone sensor- and location-data, complemented with 3rd party data, to
generate insights on movement patterns and transportation modes.
xiii
Measured through the number of direction requests in Apple Maps. Data available at
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility
xiv
“Post-Pandemic, Chinese Cities Gradually Reopen Transport Networks,” Institute for Transportation
and Development Policy, March 26, 2020.
xv
Some studies find no indication of or only ambiguous evidence for such increased risk:
Joy Troko et al., “Is Public Transport a Risk Factor for Acute Respiratory Infection?,” BMC Infectious
Diseases 11, no. 1 (December 2011): 16.
Alma J Adler et al., “Incidence and Risk Factors for Influenza-like-Illness in the UK: Online Surveillance
Using Flusurvey,” BMC Infectious Diseases 14, no. 1 (December 2014): 232.
Caroline Guerrisi et al., “Participatory Syndromic Surveillance of Influenza in Europe,” The Journal of
Infectious Diseases 214, no. suppl_4 (December 1, 2016): S386–92.
Annie Browne et al., “The Roles of Transportation and Transportation Hubs in the Propagation of
Influenza and Coronaviruses: A Systematic Review,” Journal of Travel Medicine 23, no. 1 (January 2016).
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