Becoming climate aware - Mobilizing capital to help meet climate change goals: an investor's perspective
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
For marketing purposes
For global professional / qualified /
institutional clients and investors
and US retail clients and investors.
Becoming
climate aware
Mobilizing capital to help meet climate change goals:
an investor’s perspective
January 2020
A collective responsibility
At UBS, we realize there is an urgent need to create a more cohesive and sustainable world. Climate
change and poor economic inclusion are two major challenges towards this objective. They both have a
clear framework outlining the extent of the challenge and required action: the Paris Agreement, and the
United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
For the past three years we’ve presented white papers to the WEF putting forward recommendations for
ways in which private capital can achieve the 17 SDGs1, while also outlining our own actions and pledges
in that regard. This year, our focus turns to the aims of the Paris Agreement and the orderly transition
toward a lower-carbon world.
The risks of climate change are an integral element of the duty of care that financial institutions have
toward their clients and beneficiaries. That’s why this year’s paper focuses on one of the four global
challenges to be discussed at Davos: ”How to address the urgent climate and environmental challenges
that are harming our ecology and economy”.
1 2017, Mobilizing private wealth for public good; 2018, Partnership for the goals; 2019, Awareness, simplification
and contribution.
2
As with the SDGs, our aim is to be a leading financial provider in enabling investors to mobilize private and
institutional capital targeting climate change mitigation and adaptation while supporting the transition to
a low-carbon economy.
We’re calling for collaboration across the public sector, business and academia to enhance and deepen
the understanding of climate change. We invite the financial community to join us in developing solutions
and approaches that help investors make climate-smart investments and close the climate finance gap.
By partnering with industry bodies we seek to amplify our message: the time to act on climate is now.
Axel A. Weber Sergio P. Ermotti
Chairman of the Board of Directors Group Chief Executive Officer
3
ubs.com/wef-2020 4
Authors
Kevin Arnold
Head of ICS Relationship Management,
UBS Investment Bank
Michael Baldinger
Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing,
UBS Asset Management
Phyllis Costanza
CEO UBS Optimus Foundation and
Head of UBS in Society
Mark Haefele
Global Chief Investment Officer,
UBS Global Wealth Management
Suni Harford
President,
UBS Asset Management
Special contribution
Huw van Steenis
Senior Adviser to the CEO and
Chair of the Sustainable Finance Committee,
UBS AG
Acknowledgements
Francis Condon, Gillian Dexter,
Christine Gugolz Kiefer
Sustainable and Impact Investing,
UBS Asset Management
5
Contents 7
UBS white paper for the Introduction: The climate challenge
World Economic Forum
Annual Meeting 2020
10
The great divide
The climate finance gap: We explore the extent of the climate finance gap,
looking at what is being spent compared to what might actually be needed
to transition toward a lower-carbon future.
14
The barriers to investment
What climate challenges do investors face? Many investors want to account
for climate change factors in their portfolios, but at the moment that’s proving
difficult. We consider some of the challenges they face, from regulatory
frameworks to data imperfections.
30
The investors’ perspective
How are investors tackling climate change? While many are concerned with climate
change, the way they approach it can vary. As one of the world’s largest wealth
managers, we highlight their differing perspectives.
38
Are you climate aware?
How should investors respond? We suggest an investor-led framework for
addressing climate change. In this chapter, we outline a three step model that
we believe will help investors:
– Lower their investment exposure to climate risk
– Increase their investment exposure to climate-related innovation and solutions
– Align their investments to the requirements of a lower-carbon economy
56
Looking to the future
At UBS we’re working toward a climate-smart future. That’s why we’re continuing
to develop products and solutions which will help our clients to do the same.
Introduction
The climate challenge
Scientists warn that without urgent have risen 1.5 percent per year over the the planet – including ours – will be
action, by 2100 our world will be last decade. At current trends, we’re catastrophic. The only solution is rapid,
warmer than at any other time in looking at global heating of between ambitious, transformative action by
human history2. If we don’t act now, 3.4 and 3.9 degrees Celsius by the end all – governments, regions, cities,
the result could be unprecedented and of the century. The impact on all life on businesses and civil society, all working
widespread environmental, societal together toward a common goal.”
and economic disruption.
1.5%
As we approach the fifth anniversary
Speaking at the opening ceremony of of the Paris Agreement, whether or
COP 25 in December 2019, Antonio not its targets can be met remains
Guterres, Secretary General of the unclear. Implementing current policies
United Nations, said: and commitments suggests average
temperatures will increase 3°C by the
“According to the latest Emissions Gap Greenhouse gas emissions end of this century. Do nothing and that
Report from the UN Environment have risen 1.5 percent per year figure rises to 4°C. Humans have never
Program, greenhouse gas emissions over the last decade lived in a world so warm.
2 IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global
greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and
efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte, et al.
7
Right now, a vast gulf exists Our Chairman is a signatory to the
European Financial Services Round
between the financial commitment Table’s statement in support of a strong,
ambitious response to climate change.
needed and the amount of Also, our Group CEO is a member of the
Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, an
capital actually deployed. informal network of CEOs convened
by the World Economic Forum and
committed to climate action. Our
But as scientific models improve, the is committed to closing that climate activities are underpinned by our climate
predicted outcomes are becoming finance gap. We believe we can do this strategy, designed to support our clients
starker. Demands are growing for global in two ways: through our own actions, and our firm in preparing for an
warming to be held, not just at 2°C, but and by developing products and services increasingly carbon constrained world.
at 1.5°C by 21003. that allow our clients to channel their
capital toward a climate-smart future. Many clients share our climate
Achieving the Paris goals demands commitment and want to use their
unprecedented levels of investment. But In 1989, UBS was the first Swiss bank capital in ways that can address a
right now, a vast gulf exists between the to appoint an environmental officer to warming world. This was a key finding
financial commitment needed and the help focus on sustainability goals. Four from a global survey of institutional
amount of capital actually deployed. years later we were one of the earliest asset owners that we conducted in
signatories to the United Nations 20193. Most European investors said
Climate and the business Environment Programme (UNEP FI), that within five years environmental
community and in 2016 we became a member factors could be playing a more
As one of the world’s largest managers bank of the Task Force on Climate- important role in their investment
of private and institutional wealth, UBS related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). processes than financial factors.
3 IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global
greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and
efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte, et al.
4 ESG: Do you or Don’t you? Responsible Investor and UBS Asset Management. June 2019.
8
Addressing the climate challenge We explore the underlying factors that As we’ve shown in previous papers
Against that backdrop this paper we believe are hampering investors’ submitted to the WEF6, we believe
addresses two key questions: ability to invest in a climate-smart way. that at the heart of any solution to
In response, we propose a pragmatic, the climate crisis sits the need for
1. Why are current investment levels so investor-led approach: one that goes collaboration. That is why we highlight
far short of what we need to reach beyond the de-carbonization of our own collaborations as well as our
the Paris Agreement goals? Many portfolios. One which recognizes that recommendations, and call for ever
investors want to direct their capital waiting for data to be perfected or greater collective efforts from finance,
toward a lower-carbon future. The legislation to be enacted only prolongs business, academia and policymakers
existence of that shortfall has been the delay, and placing faith in the to secure the transition toward a
widely discussed5, yet still it persists. emergence of economic growth with lower-carbon world.
net negative CO2 emissions could prove
2. How can asset owners invest in a misplaced. This is an approach that In this white paper we’re recommending
climate-smart future now? How do helps investors to be forward-thinking, a response from investors. One that we
they integrate known climate risks rather than rely solely on back- believe carries the potential to harness
within their investment decisions, ward-looking data. the power of private capital, at scale, to
identify and invest in products and more effectively tackle the challenges of
solutions that can contribute to a a warming world.
lower-carbon world, while staying
abreast of the regulatory and policy
developments that could put the We explore the underlying factors
world on track to meet the goals of
the Paris Agreement? In short, how that we believe are hampering
do they align their investments to a
climate-smart future? investors’ ability to invest in a
climate-smart way.
5 https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/ global-climate-finance-2019/
6 UBS: 2017, Mobilizing private wealth for public good; 2018, Partnership for the goals; 2019, Awareness, simplification and contribution.
9
Icebergs have two main impacts on climate. Iceberg production affects the mass balance of the
parent ice sheets, and melting icebergs can influence both ocean structure and global sea level.
10The great
divide
The climate finance gap:
How much is enough?
What level of investment would be needed to meet the low-carbon transition?
There’s a wide range of answers. As the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) noted, “While
there is no single estimate of the investment required to meet these goals [warming of
1.5°C], indicative, regional, and sectoral estimates show that the gap between existing
investment and what is needed represents an order of magnitude. … incremental
increases in climate finance flows will not deliver on these objectives”7.
7 https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/ global-climate-finance-2019/
11The great divide
Various bodies have estimated how much expenditure To fully de-carbonize, investments may need to be
different elements of the low-carbon transition might need. reallocated on an unprecedented scale
Across 2017 and 2018, total climate finance averaged just
1. Carbon Tracker, an independent financial think tank, USD 579 billion11. But just de-carbonizing one element of
calculated that the renewable energy opportunity could the mix – supply-side energy systems – means that level of
reach USD 1 trillion per annum 8. investment needs to increase five-fold.
2. CPI estimates suggest that just to transition the supply-side On the plus side, climate finance flows are rising. Average
energy systems could take an annual investment of annual tracked climate finance flows over the period
USD 1.6 trillion – USD 3.8 trillion between 2016 and 2050 9. 2017/2018, represented an increase of USD 116 billion (25%)
from 2015/2016. The rise reflected steady increases in
3. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Sustainable financing across nearly all investor types12.
Development Scenario points to an investment of
USD 1.6 trillion every year from 2025 to 203010.
25%
Compared to 2015/16, average annual
tracked climate finance flows over the
period 2017/2018 were up by 25%.
8 https://www.unpri.org/inevitable-policy-response/the-trillion-dollar-energy-windfall/4784.article
9 https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/ global-climate-finance-2019/
10 https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-model/sustainable-development-scenario
11 https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/ global-climate-finance-2019/
12 https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/ global-climate-finance-2019/
12The great divide
In-need sectors project strong returns. But still In 2019, UBS concluded an eighteen-month research project,
investment levels are falling short ESG: Do you or Don’t you? with Responsible Investor
The fact that a climate finance gap exists seems paradoxical. which surveyed institutional investors globally. One of the
In 2019, a comprehensive report from consultants Mercer most revealing findings was the importance placed on
modelled a wide range of outcomes arising from different environmental factors: the majority of European respondents
climate scenarios. They concluded that investing for a 2°C believed that within the next five years, these could outstrip
scenario is both an imperative and an opportunity13: financial factors in terms of materiality for their investments.
– An imperative, since, for nearly all asset classes, regions and A similar picture emerges among many wealth management
timeframes, a 2°C scenario leads to enhanced projected clients. The UBS 2019 Global Family Office report revealed
returns versus 3°C or 4°C and therefore a better outcome that among a range of investment trends, climate
for investors change is the single most supported cause, with 62% of
respondents reporting that they have invested in one or
– An opportunity, because although incumbent industries can more of the following: carbon footprint management,
suffer losses in a 2°C scenario, a low-carbon transition still wind or solar energy.
offers many notable investment opportunities.
In the next chapter, we explore some of the investment
Unsurprisingly, Mercer found that a 2°C scenario would lead barriers which are contributing to this climate finance gap.
to positive returns for renewable energy investment, and
negative returns for coal.
13 Source: Mercer “Investing in a time of climate change – the sequel”, 2019
13Climate change remains the most serious threat to the Great Barrier Reef. Sea temperatures are
on the rise and this trend is expected to continue, leading to an increased risk of mass coral
bleaching; gradual ocean acidification will increasingly restrict coral growth and survival.
14The
barriers to
investment
What climate challenges do investors face?
Where’s the risk?
The starting point for any investor thinking about climate change is the risk landscape.
Broadly speaking, climate risks are thought of as either:
– Physical: the damage to business continuity, asset values and productivity caused
by rising temperatures and the associated effects
– Transitional: the costs incurred in transitioning to a lower-carbon economy
15The barriers to investment
Climate-related risks
Physical risks Transition-related risks
Acute Chronic Policy and Technology Market Reputation
risks risks legal risks risks risks risks
Examples of Increased risk of Changes in climate Imposition of Investment and Uncertainty Stigmatization of
potential risks extreme weather and landscape, mitigation policies transition costs regarding consumer industry
events e.g. coastal areas or regulation to a low-carbon behavior, market
or rain forests and exposure to technology signals and supply Changes in consumer
litigation chain preferences and
Uncertainty of stakeholder
investment decisions expectations
Examples of Reduced revenue from negative impacts on Increase in operating Value loss of existing Reduced demand Reduced revenue
possible financial production facilities, sales and workforce and/or litigation costs assets due to decrease in
implications Increased costs from demand, production,
Increased operating, capital and insurance Forced capital Reduced demand for unexpected market capital availability
costs, as well as asset depreciation due depreciation due products and services changes in supply and employee
to damages to policies chains attractiveness
Costs of developing
and procuring new
technology
Source: Adapted and simplified from Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (2017a).
16The barriers to investment
All institutional investors have an
over-riding fiduciary duty to their
beneficiaries: ensuring they promote
and safeguard their interests.
2100 warming predictions
200
150
Global greenhouse gas emissions – GtC02e / year
Baseline 4.1–4.8˚C
100
50
Current policies 3.0–3.4˚C
Optimistic policies 2.9˚C
Historical Pledges and targets 2.6–2.9˚C
0 2.0˚C consistent
1.5˚C consistent
-50
'90 '00 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 2100
Source: Climate Action Tracker, September 2019.
17The barriers to investment
According to the World Meteorological
Association, the four years to 2018
were the hottest on record, due to
increasing greenhouse gas emissions . 14
The effects of global warming are already quite clear. According to the World Meteorological Association, the four years to
2018 were the hottest on record, due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs)14. After adjusting for inflation, annual
insured losses from catastrophic climate-related events have multiplied by a factor of 20 over the past 30 years, reaching an
annual average of USD 65 billion this decade15.
Global occurrences of extreme weather events
Floods Droughts
3,000 600
Number of droughts
Number of floods
2,000 400
1,000 200
0 0
1950–1966 1967–1983 1984–2000 2001–2018 1950–1983 1984–2018
Wildfires Extreme temperature events
400 500
400
Number of events
Number of wildfires
300
300
200
200
100
100
0 0
1950–1983 1984–2018 1950–1972 1973–1995 1996–2018
Source: The New Climate Economy, 2018.
14 World Meteorological Association: The State of the Global Climate in 2018, pub. March 2019.
15 Swiss Re Institute: Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2018: “secondary” perils on the frontline February 2019.
18The barriers to investment
The future of climate is hard to predict, especially when it comes to risk.
We think we’re facing four main challenges that are creating barriers for investors:
1 Regulatory
2 Investment
3 Data
4 Practical constraints
dynamics horizons imperfections on financial innovation
1. Regulatory dynamics measures. All of them are loosely working toward meeting the
Paris goals, but they’re aimed at different areas of the financial
It’s hard to manage global investments when countries markets and carry varying levels of ambition. In particular,
are setting very different climate change regulations, the absence of regulation in the US represents a significant
and at varying pace weakness in the web of climate-finance-relevant regulation.
All institutional investors have an overriding fiduciary duty to
their beneficiaries: ensuring they promote and safeguard their Particularly for large-scale institutional investors this presents
interests. Complying with relevant regulation is fundamental a problem. They’re global in their approach, therefore
but can be hard to achieve when regulatory frameworks are in different regulatory regimes, in different regions, all moving
a state of flux. at different speeds, can be hard to manage, especially when
trying to develop scalable financial solutions that can channel
Since the Paris Agreement, investors’ responsibilities to capital toward addressing climate change.
combat climate change have increased. However, looking at
the global regulatory landscape, we see a patchwork of
19Recent regulatory examples covered investment advice, independent low-carbon
It’s generally accepted that Northern Europe is the most indices and a green ‘taxonomy’. This is a list of business
advanced in terms of climate-related regulatory frameworks, activities considered in line with the transition toward a
but that’s not to say concerns don’t exist around the low-carbon economy. The taxonomy will also act as a
effectiveness, consistency and speed of implementation. disclosure framework. Discussions currently underway
include a requirement for institutions selling ‘green’ labeled
– France: The first to legislate in 2015 as part of its “energy funds or other investment products in the EU to disclose
transition for green growth” law. France’s comply-or-explain how those products align with the taxonomy.
green finance order requires investors operating in France
to report on integrating environmental, social and The recommendations are at the final stages of political
governance (ESG) factors into their investment processes, negotiations but several sticking points still exist. Although
identify the greenhouse gas emissions of their assets the Action Plan has advanced the agenda, critics have
and show how they’re contributing toward financing a suggested it remains too vague in its objectives. Many
low-carbon economy. experts are still unsure how its proposals can be enacted.
– The European Union: In March 2018, the European Beyond the EU, Canada and China have both passed legisla-
Commission (EC) adopted a Sustainable Finance Action Plan tion designed to improve transparency around ESG consider-
(the “Action Plan”)16 as part of its strategy to integrate ESG ations. Their efforts target investors and companies. Globally,
considerations in its financial industry policy framework the EU formed the International Platform on Sustainable
and mobilize finance for sustainable growth. Finance (IPSF) with China, India, Argentina, Chile, Canada,
Kenya and Morocco in October 2019. Collectively, they
The Action Plan’s focus is a set of recommendations for account for nearly half the world’s GDP and carbon emissions.
greater transparency. Last year the EU updated its non- They want to export a green taxonomy to other regions and
binding guidelines on non-financial reporting by companies countries, thereby harmonizing the rules on what constitutes
to include climate-related reporting. The guidelines also sustainable, or “green”, investment. As with similar frame-
works, the reception has been mixed.
16 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/green-finance_en
20The barriers to investment
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank By contrast, the US Department of Labor issued new
of San Francisco have each recently published research guidance in 2018. It targeted private sector employee benefit
highlighting the financial risks of climate change.17 But right plans and the integration of ESG factors in the investment
now the appetite for regulation at a national level seems low. process as it relates to their fiduciary duty. The guidance
acknowledged that evaluating ESG factors can form one
The views of fiduciary duty are changing when it comes aspect of a fiduciary’s duty, but reaffirmed the need to
to climate change prioritize the economic interests of beneficiaries19.
Regulators are grappling with the change in fiduciary thinking
needed to bring a long-term risk into the short-to-medium This illustrates the scale of the dilemma facing global
term investment lenses of pension funds and asset managers. investors – actions required in one jurisdiction can appear
As climate risks start to impact the wider economy, to conflict with actions required in another.
acceptance is growing that investment managers need to
incorporate those risks within their investment processes. Recognizing this uncertainty, The Principles for Responsible
Investment (PRI), the United Nations Environment Programme
The UK introduced new ESG regulations in 2019 requiring Finance Initiative (UNEP FI) and The Generation Foundation,
pension scheme trustees to update their statements of have just finalized a three-year project, Fiduciary Duty in
investment principles and show how they’re integrating ESG the 21st Century. One conclusion was that fiduciary duty
factors into their long-term strategic investment risks. Its includes the incorporation of ESG issues into investment
newly-published Green Finance Strategy18 clearly expects analysis and decision-making processes, consistent with
greater climate-related disclosure by large asset owners by investment time horizons20.
2022, in line with the TCFD recommendations.
17 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2019/march/climate-change-and-federal-reserve/ and
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20191108a.htm
18 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/green-finance-strategy
19 https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2018/05/02/department-of-labor-cautionary-tone-on-esg-related-activities/
20 Fiduciary Duty in the 21st Century, PRI, 2019 https://www.unpri.org/fiduciary-duty-in-the-21st-century-final-report/4998.article
21Bank of England smoothing the transition to a low-carbon economy By Huw van Steenis Senior Adviser to the CEO and Chair of the Sustainable Finance Committee, UBS AG Former senior adviser to Governor Carney on the Future of Finance The transition to a low-carbon economy poses both risks, and opportunities, for the economy and the financial sector. Investors, lenders and insurers don’t yet have a clear view of which companies will struggle, endure or prosper as the environment changes, regulations evolve, new technologies emerge and customer behavior shifts. Without this information, financial markets can’t price climate-related risks and opportunities effectively.
Moreover, the transition to a low-carbon managers, pension funds, insurers, credit where no further climate action is taken, a
economy will require large-scale reallocations rating agencies, accounting firms and scenario where early policy action delivers an
of capital and investments in infrastructure − shareholder advisory services. orderly transition to the targets set in Paris,
on some estimates more than USD 100 trillion and a third where late policy action leads
globally over the next decade. So far there has been enormous success to a disorderly and disruptive transition.
through voluntary reporting. In the past year,
It was with this context in mind that Governor almost 200 Japanese firms have joined the This way the Bank can help understand
Carney asked me to explore how the Bank TCFD, bringing Japan to the top of the TCFD if firms are “transition ready” for a lower-
of England (the Bank) could “promote the league table .22
carbon economy. The exercise should be
smooth transition to a low-carbon economy” likely to spur firms to develop additional risk
21
in the Future of Finance report . Governor But there are stragglers. That's why I agree management techniques for climate risks.
Carney, both through his leadership of the with Sir Chris Hohn, Managing Partner of The
Financial Services Board and at the Bank of Children's Investment Fund: all companies The overall results of the sector's resilience to
England, had catalyzed a number of world should look to disclose on a TCFD basis. climate-related risks will be published and are
leading initiatives. Hence I recommended the Bank should highly likely to impact how banks and insurers
champion mainstream financial reporting in think about the cost of capital to different
It is worth understanding the Bank’s ideas, the next few years, as well as enhanced projects in future − which will in turn be a
as these are being rapidly copied by other disclosures across the real estate sector. factor that investors will likely need to weigh
central banks and policy makers, and Consideration of the appropriate base line up over the coming years23.
are likely to shape market and investment and disclosure of firms’ strategies will be the
opportunities for investors. priority. The Bank plans to lead by example Since these measures have been announced
and become the first central bank to publish several other central banks have said they are
Mainstream climate change related its exposure on a TCFD basis. looking to copy them or team up to build
disclosures momentum. I expect 2020 will be pivotal in
The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Embed climate risk management terms of many other central banks launching
Disclosures (TCFD) has made important The financial sector can play a decisive role in similar initiatives − under the Network for
progress in creating a standard for decision mobilizing capital − if it understands the risks Greening the Financial System.
useful climate-related information. For me and develops the tools to manage them.
it is increasingly the gold standard upon TCFD is foundational but additional risk Bottom line
which so much is being built, and which all management tools and practices need to be The global energy sector and numerous
investors need to understand to make better developed. According to a recent survey from others are being reshaped as governments
informed decisions. the Bank of England, almost three-quarters look to shape movement to a lower-carbon
of UK banks are starting to treat climate system. For long-term investors, these
Catalyzed by the G20 and fashioned by the risks like other financial risks. present both investment risks and
private sector, the TCFD has established a opportunities. How central bank actions may
comprehensive and flexible framework for So the Bank intends to undertake a ground- influence the cost and availability of capital
corporate disclosure of climate-related risks breaking exploratory stress test of the largest will be one critical factor to understand
and opportunities. Current supporters control UK banks and insurers for climate risks in in the next few years as investors look to
balance sheets totaling USD 120 trillion. They 2021. The firms will be asked to model their make their portfolios more resilient to
include the world’s top banks, asset exposures to three climate scenarios: the climate change risk.
catastrophic business-as-usual scenario
Huw van Steenis
21 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2019/future-of-finance-report.pdf?la=en&hash=59CEFAEF01C71AA551E7182262E-
933A699E952FC
22 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/tcfd-strengthening-the-foundations-of-sustainable-finance-speech-by-mark-carney.
pdf?la=en&hash=D28F6D67BC4B97DDCCDE91AF8111283A39950563
23 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/future-financeThe barriers to investment
2. Investment horizons
Investment frameworks don’t currently address On the other hand, even though institutional investors often
long-term climate change trends carry obligations which extend across generations, evidence
Thinking about climate change in terms of time frame raises suggests some equity managers hold assets for an average of
two clear challenges. The first relates to the fact that while just 1.7 years25. That offers analysts little incentive to extend
climate change is generally accepted to be a long-term their projections.
risk, the actions needed to tackle it are short-term. For
investors this poses a fundamental problem. Put simply, The second challenge relates to the relative infancy of
existing short-term investment frameworks aren’t designed technologies being designed to capture climate change. Many
to capture long-term risks. are at a very early stage of development with a high degree
of uncertainty around future positive cash flows, which can
On the one hand, many analysts’ investment targets only prove a disincentive for many investors.
extend across one to three years, often based on historic
data. A lack of meaningful forward-looking company data Until this self-perpetuating loop is addressed the danger
is frequently blamed for compounding this short-term remains that climate risk cannot be accurately priced
analysis24 – something we discuss later in this paper. and effectively captured within the investment process –
Consequently, only risks that are expected to materialize a dilemma famously summed up by Mark Carney,
within that one to three year timeframe are likely to be Governor of the Bank of England, in his 2015 “Tragedy
assessed. of the Horizons” speech26.
24 All swans are black in the dark. How the short-term focus of financial analysis does not shed light on long-term risks. The Generation Foundation
February 2017, http://www.tragedyofthehorizon.com/.
25 All swans are black in the dark. How the short-term focus of financial analysis does not shed light on long-term risks. The Generation Foundation
February 2017, http://www.tragedyofthehorizon.com/.
26 Carney, M. 2015. Breaking the tragedy of the horizon—Climate change and financial stability. Accessed October 16, 2017.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/ publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech844.pdf.
24The barriers to investment
3. Data imperfections
It can be hard to assess investments because climate Investors have found it hard to accurately compare different
data is often complex, incomplete and fragmented sustainable investment instruments and single out the one
Private clients and institutional investors are both challenged best matched to their needs. And where sustainability
by the lack of standardized sustainability data. Ultimately, any measurement is more complex (such as assessing climate
framework is only as good as its data inputs. But, a lack of change risk and carbon footprints), the problem of data
well-founded quantitative risk metrics and forward-looking comparability is even harder for investors to overcome.
indicators from companies, makes it difficult to generate
meaningful outputs.
Private clients and institutional
investors are both challenged
by the lack of standardized
sustainability data.
25The barriers to investment
To mitigate this, we have developed a multi-vendor database Just 55% of companies in the MSCI ACWI index currently
for sustainable investment data, aggregating and filtering report on CO2 data27.
information to provide greater comparability between
sectors and regions. At the top of the list come Food According to findings from the Corporate Reporting Dialogue
and Beverage, as well as Health Care firms. Laggards, (CRD)28, most users of financial statements believe existing
unsurprisingly, include Infrastructure firms and Extractive disclosures lack information across all of the TCFD recommen-
and Minerals Processing companies. dations. The Bank of England commented that the growth in
potentially piecemeal disclosure schemes may slow adoption29.
Data around climate-related risk in particular is far from Additional information about frameworks and standards, and
perfect. We’ve already seen how incomplete and inconsistent better alignment between them, could help investors make
data sets can represent a major barrier for investors. more useful investment decisions.
European companies are climate leaders, while Middle Eastern companies lag
Climate leaders
8
6
4
2
0
Western Europe North America Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Asia ex-Japan Eastern Europe Middle East
Source: UBS, SASB, Sustainalytics, Trucost, CDP, 2019. Notes: MSCI ACWI constituents, weighted by share in index, SICS Sectors.
27 MSCI: Carbon Emissions Estimation. November 2019.
28 Corporate Reporting Dialogue “Driving Alignment in Climate-related Reporting”, 2019.
29 Future of Finance: Review on the outlook for the UK financial system (June 2019).
26The barriers to investment
Sectoral variations: thinking about the impact of climate For example, business model risks could emerge for fossil fuel
on different businesses producers (coal, oil and gas exploration and production),
Another way that investors can think about the impact of agricultural products, electric utilities, home builders, waste
climate change is to look at the ways it could affect different management and water utilities.
parts of the investment valuation. The Sustainability Accounting
Standards Board’s (SASB’s) Materiality Map® can be helpful as Even with the benefit of such frameworks and guidance,
it also recognizes how adaptable different sectors are likely to investors can still find it challenging to include such consider-
be. It categorizes risks across: ations within their asset allocation process. Our Investment
Solutions team is producing a white paper on the practical
– Business models aspects of strategic asset allocation within an ESG framework.
– Product design and lifecycle management It will investigate the implications of factors such as climate
– Transition risk measures change on investment returns. Are the expected returns of
– Physical risk measures asset classes with ESG overlays different from those of the
– Risk metrics comparable traditional asset classes; what other risks and
– Forward-looking indicators opportunities could an ESG focus highlight?
27The barriers to investment
4. Practical constraints on financial
innovation
Currently, larger institutional investors wanting to invest in commonly awarded by governments, aren’t always aligned.
clean energy are frustrated by a lack of financial products Other factors, like a lack of qualified labor, shortages of
suited to their asset allocation approach. In general, they’d available land and excessive bureaucracy compound the
rather allocate larger sums per transaction than the typical problem further still.
clean energy investment opportunity presently allows.
Solving that conundrum means developing more low- In terms of the regional need to abate carbon emissions,
carbon opportunities as well as a broader set of capital emerging markets represent the largest share of projected
market instruments. emissions growth31. However, levels of project-specific risks
in these locations, and the need to manage those risks,
New wind and solar projects have become more cost- can be magnified in ways that may exceed investors’
competitive than coal in most of the world, over quite a short risk tolerance.
period of time. Yet despite this investment model, renewables
still represent a modest share of global energy supply – in Other barriers to structuring of appropriate investable
2018, only 6% could be attributed to wind and solar30. instruments can be:
Practical barriers to scaling-up include the absence of local – Decision-useful data: even if it’s available, it can
legislative and regulatory frameworks. The timelines of be difficult to integrate and standardize across risk
corporate finance agreements put in place to fund new energy management, strategy, and client engagement functions
construction projects, and the 10-20 year concession contracts – Methodologies: they don’t always resolve fundamental
questions such as how to attribute emissions in financial
portfolios or how to set emissions reduction pathways
for sectors
30 IRENA, Renewable Energy Statistics 2018, International Renewable Energy Agency, 2018.
31 Climate Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets An IFC Analysis 2016 https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/59260145-ec2e-40de-97e6-
3aa78b82b3c9/3503-IFC-Climate_Investment_Opportunity-Report-Dec-FINAL.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=lBLd6Xq
28Our aim is to be a leading financial provider in enabling investors to mobilize private and institutional capital targeting climate change mitigation and adaptation while supporting the transition to a low- carbon economy.
Current practice
The
investors‘
perspective
How are investors tackling climate change?
30Rooftop gardens are a way of bringing greenery into a sterile space. They can be places
where plants and vegetables can be grown to support a sustainable lifestyle.
Given the barriers we’ve described, how are investors responding? Specifically, how
is the impact of climate change already playing out, and what are institutional and
private wealth investors doing to allocate their capital toward the transition to a
lower-carbon future?
We take a closer look at five distinct investor types and their current responses to the challenges of climate change:
Pension Central Sovereign Private Philanthropy
funds banks wealth funds wealth investors solutions
31Current practice: The investor’s perspective
Pension funds
Many pension funds and asset owners recognize climate change as one of the largest
systemic risks in their investment portfolios. But the lack of formalized methodologies
means integrating climate risk into the investment process can be challenging.
The following investor snapshots focusing on climate change. To comply HESTA (Australia) The fund’s Climate
illustrate how varied current pension with local regulation, it will publish a Change Policy objectives are designed
approaches are. TCFD aligned climate-related risk report to protect it from assets believed to be
in January 2020. It is working on several at the highest risk of becoming stranded
CALPERS (US) the Californian State quantitative models designed to assets, notably fossil fuels. Climate
retirement plan, is completing a carbon improve the analysis and understanding change risks and opportunities are
foot-printing of its public and private of how and where climate change could embedded within its investment and
asset classes. CALPERS has a substantial impact global capital markets. CALPERS decision-making process. The fund
engagement and advocacy program is one of the founders and steering regards itself as a universal and long-
committee members of the Climate term owner. It does not support an
Action 100+ engagement program. exclusion or divestment approach based
on climate change risks.
32Current practice: The investor’s perspective
Central banks
The climate concerns of central banks are similar to those of other large-scale
institutional investors, but their perspective is unique.
Climate change could pose a risk to Several climate-related policy initiatives The NGFS encourages its members
economic and inflation outlooks: both exist. The most important is the Central to lead by example, urging them to
core central bank responsibilities. Those Banks and Supervisors Network for integrate climate-related criteria in their
risks could be the physical impact of Greening the Financial System (NGFS). own operations.
extreme weather events, or the
economic disruption that transitioning Member institutions account for almost
toward a low-carbon business model half of global GDP and two-thirds of
might cause in the financial and systemically important banks and
corporate sector. insurers, currently not including the US.
The focus is two-fold:
– Supervisory and macro-prudential
tasks relating to financial and systemic
risk caused by climate change
– Better disclosure standards
33Current practice: The investor’s perspective
Sovereign wealth funds
Collectively, sovereign institutions manage approximately USD 20 trillion. Their fiduciary
duty covers many stakeholders, including the general public. Not surprisingly, because
their activities are often closely scrutinized many are starting to incorporate climate risk
into their mandates and investment frameworks.
The clearest argument for integrating national wealth is invested over the GPIF (Japan) the world’s largest pension
ESG and the materiality of climate risks long-term and diversified across fund recently carried out a study on
lies with the commodity-based sover- investment strategies grounded in the impact of climate change on its
eign wealth funds, which account for sound economic, social, environmental assets, which it published in September
roughly half of all sovereign assets and governance factors. 2019 – Analysis of Climate Change
globally. A rational economic case could Impacts on Portfolios. It also published
be made for these countries to extract Norges and Japan’s Government climate-related information for its
as many resources as possible from the Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) each first ESG report, structured in line with
ground while global demand remains illustrate ways that sovereign wealth the recommendations of the TCFD.
solid. But the global need to transition funds are addressing climate change. In October 2019, GPIF announced it
to a low-carbon economy poses a would join the Climate Action 100+
fundamental challenge that will Norges Bank Investment engagement program.
determine their future prosperity. This Management (Norway) manages the
is where the principles of sustainable assets of the Norwegian Government
investing meet prudent, long-term risk Pension Fund Global (GPFG). Since 2014
management: both aim to ensure it has clearly set out its expectations of
the ways in which companies should
approach the risks and opportunities
associated with climate change, as well
as the role of fossil fuel investments
within its fund.
34Current practice: The investor’s perspective
Private wealth investors
Private clients undoubtedly regard climate change as important. But our own research
and experience tell us it is one among a number of sustainability topics which matter
to them. They have deeply personal views on what is sustainable and their own
sustainability interests vary considerably.
A UBS Investor Watch Survey of over sustainable investment advice based on of sustainable investment content is
5,000 high-net-worth investors each private client’s individual affinities. important. A recent private client survey
revealed fifty-eight percent of ultra We have enhanced transparency on six that we conducted found that private
high net worth investors think that key sustainability topics to power this wealth clients often have divergent
sustainable investing will be the norm initiative. Attracting more than USD views of what matters most to them,
within 10 years. In aggregate, our 800m of client assets, the pilot has what they deem to be a sustainable
data shows that they’re most proved a major success that justifies business activity, and that they often
interested in tackling environmental the rollout of a full and permanent hold differing personal values. For
topics, including water, pollution and personalized sustainability investment example, while 45% of surveyed clients
waste, and climate change32. advisory offering. express a high affinity to ‘people’
topics, not every client agrees. 38%
Family offices reflected that senti- The first phase of its launch across our expressed a low interest in aligning
ment. 62% believe most of their global wealth management business their investments to this topic.
peers will invest sustainably by 2022. will begin in early 2020. Personalization
They expressed a level of frustration
though with the challenge of
accessing offerings with direct Private wealth clients have diverging views on what matters to them
impact. Like institutional investors,
Percent of clients expressing high affinity Percent of clients expressing low affinity
the lack of scalable solutions is a
80%
problem. According to the 2019
UBS / Campden Wealth Global Family
Office survey, 36% of respondents 60
say there are “not enough opportuni-
ties to invest in green technology.”
40
In its 2019 WEF Whitepaper,
Awareness, simplification, and
20
contribution33, UBS announced a pilot
program to deliver personalized
0
Climate Change Water Product and services People
Source: UBS Global Wealth Management, Client Based Insights 2019.
32 https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/our-approach/investor-watch/2018/return-on-values.html
33 https://www.ubs.com/microsites/wma/insights/en/investing/2019/tackling-worlds-urgent-challenges.html
35Current practice: The investor’s perspective
Philanthropy solutions
By developing three principles for effective climate philanthropy, we can help clients
use their capital to address climate change
Clients don’t just want investment where resources can do the most the all-important ways to remove
solutions, they’re eager to use risk good, our clients can give with more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere:
capital to address climate change confidence and make their philanthropic carbon capture and carbon dioxide
through their philanthropic efforts. UBS journey more rewarding. removal.
Optimus Foundation and the Climate
Leadership Initiative (CLI) have devel- Several sectors of the economy provide The scope and scale of impact for each
oped three principles for effective feasible opportunities for philanthropy of these sectors vary in every region of
climate philanthropy. In fact, CLI was to act as a vital catalyst to accelerate the the world. It’s essential to consider local
created by six of the top climate donors transitions needed to tackle climate contexts, priorities and opportunities to
this year with the goal of making it change. The key sectors are: strategically fund projects that stand to
easier for new philanthropists to learn, drive the most change. In China and
become connected to like-minded – Pollution free electricity/energy India, for example, it’s critical to
people and experts and collectively – Transport transition to clean fuels and power to
tackle the issue. – Buildings meet rising energy demands. In Brazil
– Industry/production and Indonesia, forest protection requires
Understanding how experts view – Food/farming urgent philanthropic support and
opportunities to solve the climate crisis – Natural landscapes/forests resources. And in the global effort to
is helpful as a frame for new donors. phase out coal, Southeast Asia is the last
They generally think of solutions Necessary changes include transitioning frontier for coal power plant demand
through the lens of three ‘dials’ to turn: to renewable energy sources; investing and development.
sector, geographic region and enabling in regenerative farming practices to
levers. By understanding how and ensure the global demand for food is
met sustainably; protecting forests and
grasslands; stopping powerful methane
from escaping into the atmosphere; and
36Current practice: The investor’s perspective
Regions: Seven are key to the solutions
Fossil transition and removal
Pollution-free electricity
Better buildings
EU
Clean production China
8%
19%
Sustainable food and farming
Landscape protection
USA
Transportation revolution 11%
India
13%
SE Asia
Africa
5%
Brazil 11%
4%
Source: CWF Analysis using Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) v. 5.1.3, October 2019.
37Salt marshes are coastal wetlands that are flooded and drained by salt water brought in
by the tides. A healthy salt marsh is a complex ecosystem delicately balanced between
the marine and terrestrial environments.
38Are you
climate
aware?
A climate-smart framework for investors
An investor-oriented approach
We’ve seen the extent of the challenges faced by all investors. How do they position
their investments or capital to make the transition toward a lower-carbon future?
Given the inherent uncertainties of climate change, can they be sure they’ve properly
captured the investment risks and opportunities? And how do they adjust to an
inconsistent and fluid regulatory environment?
39Are you climate aware?
While a lot is being done to invest for a lower-carbon world, Our methodology contains three key elements:
investors are signaling the need to be more ambitious and
move faster. Our own research has shown that allocators want – Portfolio mitigation: Lowering investment exposures
to use their capital in a climate-smart way and help close the to carbon risks
climate gap. – Portfolio adaptation: Increasing investment exposures
to climate-related innovation and solutions
De-carbonizing existing portfolios won’t be enough. Waiting – Portfolio transition: Aligning investments to the
for data to be perfected or legislation to be put in place only requirements of a lower-carbon economy
prolongs the delay, while placing faith in the ingenuity needed
to support economic growth with net negative CO2 emissions It is a pragmatic, flexible, investor-led approach. Minimizing
could prove misplaced. allocations to companies most negatively affected by climate
change should help to mitigate the downside risk, while
Investors need actionable tools and techniques: methodolo- increasing exposure to companies with climate-smart business
gies that guide them in a changing and uncertain world, models and offerings may maximize the upside opportunity.
providing greater certainties so they can allocate their capital By balancing each of these three elements investors can:
in ways that drive the low-carbon transition. And most
importantly, they need to be able to act today, not wait for – Achieve a holistic, forward-looking approach to tackling
tomorrow. the uncertainties and challenges of climate change
– Adjust one or more of the individual elements as
We recognize these shortcomings which is why we are circumstances change
proposing a methodology to help investors become fully – Have an opportunity to make better informed investment
‘climate aware’. Moving away from a dependence on decisions and use their weight of capital to influence
backward-looking data and toward a forward-looking change
model can help them to position their portfolio for a
climate-smart future. At any given point in time, investors can dial up or dial down
one or all of the three elements, to better balance their
climate risks and objectives.
A program of active engagement underpins the methodology,
which is essential. It looks to provide deeper insights to the
actions and progress which companies are making toward a
40Are you climate aware?
climate-smart future. Those insights mean that investors We call this combination of portfolio adjustment and active
can directly link the adjustments they make to investments engagement the ‘Climate Aware’ framework. It can serve as
in their portfolios to actions that investee companies are a blueprint for investors to address the historic challenges
taking to address climate change. Through this combination presented by climate change.
of portfolio strategy and collaborative engagement,
investors may have a significant impact on efforts to tackle
climate change.
A climate aware framework for investors
Portfolio adaptation
Increasing investment exposures
to climate-related innovation and solutions
A balanced
approach
We need a balanced
Portfolio mitigation approach to channel
Lowering investment capital toward a lower
exposures to carbon risks carbon future
Portfolio transition
Aligning portfolios to your
chosen climate glidepath
Source: UBS Asset Management. When we named the characteristics we deliberately borrowed from the scientific taxonomy of the low-carbon transition, as we believe these
terms are particularly relevant to our methodology.
41You can also read
