BACKGROUND COEU TOPIC A: UPDATING EU-UK ECO-NOMIC AGREEMENTS IN THE WAKE OF BREXIT - IMUNA
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BACKGROUND CoEU
GUIDE
Topic A: Updating EU-UK Eco-
nomic Agreements in the Wake
of Brexit
Topic B: Developing a Unified
2 0 2 1 Policy on Machine Learning and
Smart Systems
Email: info@imuna.org
Phone: +1 (212) 652-9992
Web: www.nhsmun.org
Secretary-General Greetings, delegates!
Maura Goss
My name is Erik Novak, and it is my utmost honor to be the committee director for the Council
Directors-General
of the European Union for NHSMUN 2021 Session I. Sophia and I have been looking forward to
Rose Blackwell
our upcoming debate. I have always admired the European Union and work to promote inter-state
JJ Packer
camaraderie at a level unseen elsewhere in the world. I believe that its overall success hints that per-
Conference Services haps human civilization is greater than the sum of its parts. The year 2020 has likely been the most
Hannah Lilley intense, unpredictable, and uncompromising of many of our lives, and often the best way to digest
Alisa Wong
such dense experiences is through mutual “blood, toil, tears and sweat,” to borrow from Churchill.
Delegate Experience Overall, I am deeply committed to forwarding MUN as an education tool globally, and I am excited
Akanksha Sancheti for each of you to see the rich opportunities the conference presents.
John Wood
I am originally from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, but I am currently a freshman at Duke University study-
Global Partnerships
Sofia Fuentes ing electrical and computer engineering, mathematics, and economics. That said, uniting technolog-
Salmaan Rashiq ical progress with international relations stands as one of my central passions. Thus, it is no wonder
that MUN has become a central tenet of my extracurricular slate. This is my second year on staff,
Under-Secretaries-
General having been the Assistant Director for the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Jon Basile (UNCTAD) last year. Besides NHSMUN, I am involved with other MUN projects such as most
Ankita Bhat WIMUN conferences, Duke’s MUN conferences, and a few conferences in Brazil. Additionally, I
Beatriz Circelli maintain several back-end technologies for MUN Impact and created several new projects as their
Caitlyn Johnson main technology lead.
Patrick Leong
Kathy Li With careful consideration, Sophia and I settled upon two topics that are challenging, engaging,
Pablo Maristany de relevant, and rewarding. For Topic A, the aftermath of Brexit presents the greatest challenge to the
las Casas EU vision yet, and therefore the greatest challenge to what the EU symbolizes as the largest eco-
McCall Olliff political supranational union in the world. For Topic B, the philosophical underpinnings of artificial
Abolee Raut intelligence pose one of the greatest challenges we face as a civilization today, as this powerful tech-
Pranav Reddy
nology’s growing potential, both constructive and destructive, has few comparisons in our global
Clare Steiner
technology base. In learning both topics, delegates will be stretched to juggle competing interests,
Ann Williams
limited budgets, and political ideology, all while taming a slew of exceptions and nuances.
The time for youth empowerment is now. As tomorrow’s soon-to-be leaders, we will rise to meet
the challenges of this moment in time by exposing ourselves to the pressing concerns of today and
emulating the work of complex government structures. We will build this earth with such quality it
will make our ancestors envious and our descendants proud.
It is time to shine, delegates!
Erik Novak
erik.novak@imuna.org
Council of the European Union
Session I
Email: info@imuna.org
Phone: +1 (212) 652-9992
Web: www.nhsmun.org
Secretary-General Dear Delegates,
Maura Goss
Welcome to NHSMUN 2021! My name is Sophia Zhukovsky, and I am honored to be your Direc-
Directors-General
tor of the Council of the European Union (CoEU) for Session I. My co-Director Erik and I have
Rose Blackwell
worked extremely hard to craft the best possible experience for our delegates, starting with thor-
JJ Packer
oughly researched and highly detailed background guides. We hope that this document will inform
Conference Services you about some of the most pressing issues facing Europe today and inspire you to delve deeply
Hannah Lilley into this simulation of a crucial EU institution. I cannot wait to see the directions you all will take
Alisa Wong
this debate in and the committee experience we will create together.
Delegate Experience
Akanksha Sancheti Allow me to introduce myself! I am a third-year student at the State University of New York at
John Wood Stony Brook, also known as Stony Brook University. I study Political Science and Environmental
Humanities, which has allowed me to explore not only politics and sustainability in their respective
Global Partnerships
Sofia Fuentes spheres but also the intersections of these topics, particularly through environmental activism and
Salmaan Rashiq policy. I am originally from Stony Brook, New York, but just because NHSMUN takes place close
to home does not mean I don’t take every opportunity to travel and explore. One big constant in
Under-Secretaries-
General my life has been Model UN. I attended my first Model UN meeting on a fateful Friday in my fresh-
Jon Basile man year of high school because I saw a flyer for it in the hallway, and I have not stopped loving it
Ankita Bhat since. After attending NHSMUN for three years as a delegate, I knew I had to apply to staff. I’ve
Beatriz Circelli since worked as an Assistant Director for the Committee on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice
Caitlyn Johnson (CCPCJ), and last year I served as a Director for the United Nations World Tourism Organization
Patrick Leong (UNWTO). This year, I am beyond thrilled to re-join staff as your Director for the CoEU. Model
Kathy Li UN has changed my life in more ways than I thought possible, and I love being able to share it with
Pablo Maristany de
such talented, dedicated, and creative people like my fellow staffers, and you guys, the delegates!.
las Casas
McCall Olliff After so, so, so much research, CoEU is proud to present to you the topics for this committee:
Abolee Raut Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit, and Developing a Unified Policy
Pranav Reddy
on Machine Learning and Smart Systems. These are complex topics that encompass many social,
Clare Steiner
economic, and political factors. However, there is no doubt that with preparation and critical think-
Ann Williams
ing, you will be more than prepared to tackle them and find innovative solutions that pave a path
forward. I encourage you to use this Background Guide to engage yourselves in these topics and
then go beyond the document to supplement it with your own research. By the time NHSMUN
comes around, we’ll have a committee full of experts that can handle anything. If there’s anything
2020 has taught us, it’s that the world can change in the blink of an eye. That’s part of why these
topics feature the ideas of preparedness and adaptability. NHSMUN is a place not only to debate
for a few days and go home, but to develop new interests, skills, and connections that you will
continue to carry with you after you leave. I absolutely cannot wait to see you all there. Good luck!
Best wishes,
Sophia Zhukovsky
sophia.zhukovsky@imuna.org
Council of the European Union
Session II
CoEU 4| Table of Contents Table of Contents A Note on the NHSMUN Difference 5 A Note on Research and Preparation 7 Committee History 8 Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit 9 Introduction 10 History and Description of the Issue 11 Current Status 21 Bloc Analysis 27 Committee Mission 29 Developing a Unified Policy on Machine Learning and Smart Systems 31 Introduction 32 History and Description 33 Current Status 47 Bloc Analysis 53 Committee Mission 56 Research and Preparation Questions 58 Important Documents 59 Works Cited 62
CoEU
A Note on the NHSMUN Difference |5
A Note on the NHSMUN Difference
Esteemed Faculty and Delegates,
Welcome to NHSMUN 2021! Our names are Rose Blackwell and JJ Packer, and we are this year’s Directors-General. Thank
you for choosing to attend NHSMUN, the world’s largest and most diverse Model United Nations conference for
secondary school students. We are thrilled to welcome you to our conference in March!
As a space for collaboration, consensus, and compromise, NHSMUN strives to transform today’s brightest thinkers into tomor-
row’s leaders. Our organization provides a uniquely tailored experience for all in attendance through innovative and accessible
programming. We believe that an emphasis on education through simulation is paramount to the Model UN experience, and this
idea permeates throughout NHSMUN.
Debate founded on strong knowledge: With knowledgeable staff members and delegates from over 70 countries, NHSMUN
can facilitate an enriching experience reliant on substantively rigorous debate. To ensure this high quality of debate, our staff
members produce extremely detailed and comprehensive topic overviews (like the one below) to prepare delegates for the com-
plexities and nuances inherent in global issues. This process takes over six months, during which the Directors who lead our
committees develop their topics with the valuable input of expert contributors. Because these topics are always changing and
evolving, NHSMUN also produces update papers intended to bridge the gap of time between when the background guides are
published and when committee starts in March. As such, this guide is designed to be a launching point from which delegates
should delve further into their topics.
Extremely prepared and engaged staff: The detailed knowledge that our directors provide in this background guide through
diligent research aims to spur critical thought within delegates at NHSMUN. Before the conference, our Directors and Assistant
Directors are trained rigorously through copious hours of exercises and workshops to provide the best conference experience
possible. Beyond this, our Directors and Assistant Directors read every position paper submitted to NHSMUN and provide
thoughtful insight on those submitted by the feedback deadline. Our staff aims not only to tailor the committee experience to
delegates’ reflections and research but also to facilitate an environment where all delegates’ thoughts can be heard.
Emphasis on participation: The UN relies on the voices of all of its Member States to create resolutions most likely to make
a dramatic impact on the world. That is our philosophy at NHSMUN too. We believe that to properly delve into an issue and
produce fruitful debate, it is crucial to focus the entire energy and attention of the room on the topic at hand. Our Rules of
Procedure and our staff focus on making every voice in the committee heard, regardless of each delegate’s country assignment
or skill level. However, unlike many other conferences, we also emphasize delegate participation after the conference. MUN
delegates are well researched and aware of the UN’s priorities, and they can serve as the vanguard for action on the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, we are proud to also connect students with other action-oriented organizations to en-
courage further work on the topics.
Focused committee time: We feel strongly that interpersonal connections during debate are critical to producing superior com-
mittee experiences and allow for the free flow of ideas. Ensuring policies based on equality and inclusion is one way in which
NHSMUN guarantees that every delegate has an equal opportunity to succeed in committee. We staff a very dedicated team
who type up and format draft resolutions and working papers so that committee time can be focused on communication and
collaboration.
Educational emphasis, even for awards: At the heart of NHSMUN lies education and compromise. As such, when NHSMUN
does distribute awards, we de-emphasize their importance in comparison to the educational value of Model UN as an activity.
CoEU 6| a noTE on ThE nhsMUn DiffErEnCE NHSMUN seeks to reward schools whose students excel in the arts of compromise and diplomacy. More importantly, we seek to develop an environment in which delegates can employ their critical thought processes and share ideas with their counterparts from around the world. We always prioritize teamwork and encourage our delegates to engage with others diplomatically and inclusively. In particular, our daises look for and promote constructive leadership that strives towards consensus, as delegates do in the United Nations. Realism and accuracy: Although a perfect simulation of the UN is never possible, we believe that one of the core educational responsibilities of MUN conferences is to educate students about how the UN System works. Each NHSMUN committee is a simulation of a real deliberative body so that delegates can research what their country has said in the committee. Our topics are chosen from the issues currently on the agenda of that committee (except historical committees, which take topics from the appropriate time period. This creates incredible opportunities for our delegates to do first-hand research by reading the actual statements their country has made and the resolutions they have supported. We also incorporate real UN and NGO experts into each committee through our committee speakers program and arrange for meetings between students and the actual UN Permanent Mission of the country they are representing. No other conference goes so far to deeply immerse students into the UN System. As always, we welcome any questions or concerns about the substantive program at NHSMUN 2021 and would be happy to discuss NHSMUN pedagogy with faculty or delegates. Delegates, it is our sincerest hope that your time at NHSMUN will be thought-provoking and stimulating. NHSMUN is an in- credible time to learn, grow, and embrace new opportunities. We look forward to seeing you work both as students and global citizens at the conference. Best, Rose Blackwell and JJ Packer Directors-General
CoEU
A Note on Research and Preparation |7
A Note on Research and Preparation
Delegate research and preparation is a critical element of attending NHSMUN and enjoying the conference’s intellectual and
cosmopolitan perspective. We have provided this Background Guide to introduce the topics that will be discussed in your com-
mittee. This document is designed to give you a description of the committee’s mandate and the topics on its agenda. We do not
intend to represent exhaustive research on every facet of the topics. We encourage and expect each of you to critically explore
the selected topics and be able to identify and analyze their intricacies upon arrival to NHSMUN in March. Delegates must be
prepared to intelligently utilize your knowledge and apply it to your country’s unique policy.
The task of preparing for the conference can be challenging, but to assist delegates, we have updated our Beginner Delegate
Guide and Advanced Delegate Guide. In particular, these guides contain more detailed instructions on how to prepare a
position paper and excellent sources that delegates can use for research. Use these resources to your advantage—they can help
transform a sometimes-overwhelming task into what it should be: an engaging, interesting, and rewarding experience.
An essential part of representing a state in an international body is the ability to articulate a given state’s views in writing. Ac-
cordingly, NHSMUN requires each delegation (the one or two delegates representing a country in a committee) to write a posi-
tion paper for both topics on the committee’s agenda. In delegations with two students, we strongly encourage each student to
participate in the research for both topics, to ensure that both students are prepared to debate no matter what topic is selected
first. More information about how to write and format positoin papers can be found in the NHSMUN Research Guide. To sum-
marize, position papers should be structured into three sections, described below.
I: Topic Background – This section should describe the history of the topic as it would be described by the delegate’s coun-
try. Delegates do not need to give an exhaustive account of the topic background, but rather focus on the details that are most
important to the delegation’s policy and proposed solutions.
II: Country Policy – This section should discuss the delegation’s policy regarding the topic. Each paper should state the policy
in plain terms and include the relevant statements, statistics, and research that support the effectiveness of the policy. Compari-
sons with other global issues are also appropriate here.
III. Proposed Solutions – This section should detail the delegation’s proposed solutions to address the topic. Descriptions of
each solution should be thorough. Each idea should clearly connect to the specific problem it aims to solve and identify potential
obstacles to implementation and how they can be avoided. The solution should be a natural extension of the country’s policy.
Each topic’s position paper should be no more than 10 pages long double-spaced with standard mar-gins and font size. We
recommend 2-4 pages per topic as a suitable length. The paper must be written from the perspective of the country you are
representing at NHSMUN 2021 and should articulate the policies you will espouse at the conference.
Each delegation is responsible for sending a copy of its papers to their committee Directors via myDais on or before 19 Febru-
ary 2021. If a delegate wishes to receive detailed feedback from the committee’s dais, a position must be submitted on or before
29 January 2021. The papers received by this earlier deadline will be reviewed by the dais of each committee and returned prior
to your arrival at the conference.
Complete instructions for how to submit position papers will be sent to faculty advisers via the email submitted at registration.
If delegations are unable to submit their position papers on time, they should contact us at info@imuna.org as soon as possible.
Delegations that do not submit position papers to directors will be ineligible for awards.
CoEU 8| Committee History Committee History The European Union (EU) is a supranational organization of 27 European countries, which operates as a cohesive economic and political bloc. The EU is perhaps most well-known for successfully creating an open single market system across Europe, which allows for the free flow of goods and people in its member countries. Along with this, the Union also creates laws to pro- mote peace and cooperation throughout the continent. To legislate European law, the EU uses four institutions: the European Commission, the European Council, the Council of the EU, and the European Parliament. The Commission submits its propos- als to the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union (CoEU), which rejects or approves the legislation. As such, the CoEU focuses on adopting binding, macroscopic, and long term legislation. For example, the CoEU votes on the long term budget goals of the entire 166 billion euros of the EU, and negotiates them every seven years, with the new plan set to be voted on in December 2020. This committee will simplify the multi-institutional nature of the Union by approaching the CoEU more similarly to a standard MUN committee, with only a few minor modifications. Founded in 1957, the Council of the European Union was the principal legislative body of the European Coal and Steel Com- munity, which consisted of France, West Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. The creation of a com- mon market to pool coal in steel aimed to reinforce a cohesive Europe, making another war between France and Germany “not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible.” While limited to solely matters regarding coal and steel production, the council would grow its jurisdiction in the Merger Treaty, replacing similar legislative bodies like the Council of the Euratom and the Council of the European Economic Community. The council required unanimous decisions, as outlined in the frameworks of the European Communities. The unanimity requirement was abolished after the “Empty Chair” Crisis in 1965, where the French delegation abstained from Council meetings to impede implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy that was negative to France’s interests. Following the crisis, the 1966 Luxembourg Compromise extended the basis for decision making to qualified majority voting and limited the unanimous voting only for situations of common interest due to unanimous voting impracticality. A qualified major- ity is reached when 55% of the member states (at least 15 out of 27) vote in favor, and the states in favor contain at least 65% of the total EU population. In our committee, we will base percentages off of the populations calculated on the first day of debate. As mentioned before, NHSMUN’s simulation of the CoEU will diverge slightly from real-life protocols. We will only be meeting once for three days as opposed to formal CoEU meetings that take place once a month to once every four months, depending on the council. This committee will not simulate the multi-institutional nature of the Union, but rather approach the Council of the EU similar to a standard MUN committee. That is to say, at NHSMUN, the CoEU will be passing legislation directly into law based on the decisions made in the committee as opposed to the Commission being the primary writer of legislation. The decisions that the committee makes must be carefully considered because what is passed will affect the entire EU.
CoEU
NHSMUN 2021
Topic A:
Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit
Photo Credit: George Hodan
10|TI opic A: Updating
ntroduction
EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit
Introduction
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) held a nationwide referendum, asking the question:
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European
Union?”1 51.89 percent of voters chose to leave the EU, initiating the process that later became
known globally as Brexit.2 This changed the nature of the EU-UK relationship and the positions
of both parties on the global stage. The vote not only led to a political withdrawal from the bloc, a
process without precedent since its inception, but also presented a monumental challenge in paving a
way forward. On January 23, 2020, four years after the historic referendum in 2016, the UK officially
left the EU and entered into the transition period to discuss the terms of their new relationship.3
The UK was formerly a prominent EU member state and will continue to be the EU’s single largest
trading partner despite no longer belonging to the group.4 During this transition period, the objec-
tive is to enter into a new trade agreement that will implement new and financially favorable terms
for both parties. The final form of this agreement—or whether or not one will even be reached—is
currently unclear. After this period, the EU and the UK must continue to work together to protect
their economic relationships and close political relationships.
There are many areas of consideration in developing econom- needs is required to prevent trade losses and subsequent dam-
ic policy going forward. As EU member states, it is important age to global markets.
to understand the current nature of the EU-UK economic
Furthermore, the outcome of the transition period will come
relationship and how it is anticipated to change. The EU is
to restructure how trade takes place, as the parties debate is-
the largest single-market area globally, so it will be necessary
sues like free and fair competition for UK and EU businesses.8
to determine the future access of the UK to this market and
Conflict resolution, resource access, partnerships over justice
its activity.5 The EU Single Market allows for the free move- and security, and many other shared areas have also come to
ment of “goods, services, capital, and people” between EU light as relevant subjects in the negotiation process.9 Further-
member states, which is why this decision is incredibly im- more, there continues to be uncertainty over the model for
portant to both parties.6 The main contested points to this a future trade deal, whether it will take the form of a ‘hard’
end are the payment of tariffs or taxes imposed on imported deal administered under the regulations of the World Trade
and exported goods, as well as the free exchange of goods Organization (WTO) or a “soft” deal that ensures sustained
and services across the new border.7 Providing for an updated participation in the European Economic Area (EEA).10 The
EU-UK economic relationship that incorporates both parties’ Council of the European Union (CoEU) must take the ini-
1 David Allen Green, “The Tale of the Brexit Referendum Question,” Financial Times, August 3, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/
b56b2b36-1835-37c6-8152-b175cf077ae8.
2 Green, “Tale of Brexit.”
3 Tom Edgington, “What Is the Transition Period?,” BBC News, January 31, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50838994.
4 Matthew Ward, “Statistics on UK-EU Trade,” House of Commons Library, December 16, 2019, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/
research-briefings/cbp-7851/#:~:text=The%20EU%2C%20taken%20as%20a,%25%20of%20all%20UK%20imports).&text=A%20sur-
plus%20of%20%C2%A381,billion%20on%20trade%20in%20goods.
5 “Trade,” European Union, last modified June 11, 2019, https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/trade_en.
6 Maryse Godden, “What is the EU single market, will the UK leave it after Brexit and what will Thresa May’s Brexit policy mean for it?,”
The Sun, April 9, 2019, https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2568231/brexit-theresa-may-eu-single-market/
7 Joe Mayes, “U.K Post-Brexit Trade Plan Cuts Tariffs, Highlights EU Risk,” Bloomberg, May 19, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/
articles/2020-05-19/u-k-sets-out-post-brexit-tariffs-plan-cutting-import-duties.
8 “Transition Period,” European Commission, accessed June 5, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forg-
ing-new-partnership/brexit-brief/transition-period_en.
9 Chris Morris, “Brexit Trade Deal: What Do the UK and the EU Want?” BBC News, February 27, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/
news/51357589.
10 John Curtice, “Do Voters Want a Hard or Soft Brexit?,” The UK in a Changing Europe, February 12, 2020, https://ukandeu.ac.uk/do-
voters-want-a-hard-or-a-soft-brexit/.Topic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit
History and Description of the Issue |11
The ballot was given to voters in the Brexit referendum.
tiative in coordinating a comprehensive plan for the EU in rounding the UK’s decision to leave the EU. Reviewing this
the post-Brexit relationship. CoEU member states should be timeline will help delegates understand how the referendum
equipped with a thorough knowledge of the Brexit timeline, came to pass and its future implications. This knowledge will
its important events and documents, the objectives of both constitute the basis of discussion for the CoEU.
the EU and the UK, and, ultimately, the possibilities for fu-
While Brexit was recently completed in 2020, the process had
ture direction. The CoEU’s objective is not to conduct the
been in development for several years. The idea of the UK
actual negotiations with the UK, but rather to formulate the
leaving the EU first gained traction in public discourse in Jan-
response of the EU to the withdrawal and provide for a path uary 2013, when then-Prime Minister (PM) David Cameron
forward in its relationship with the UK. Therefore, the focus proclaimed his support for a referendum on the future of the
of the debate should be on implementing the EU strategy UK’s membership in the EU.11 This was later officially incor-
after the conclusion of Brexit. porated into his government’s platform and presented to the
European Council in 2015.12 Between 2015 and 2016, the EU
and UK began to hold official discussions on the future rela-
History and Description of the Issue
tionship of the EU and UK, while the UK prepared to hold
its nationwide referendum.13 After pushing for years for the
A Brief Overview of Brexit
referendum to be held, then-PM David Cameron advocated
Constructing a new relationship post-Brexit will require a for remaining within the bloc after he was able to negotiate
thorough knowledge of the events leading up to and sur- better terms for UK membership with the EU in 2016.14 The
11 Nigel Walker, “Brexit Timeline: Events Leading to the UK’s Exit From the European Union,” House of Commons Library, June 10, 2020,
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmtreasy/1819/1819.pdf.
12 Walker, “Brexit Timeline,” 6.
13 Walker, “Brexit Timeline,” 6.
14 Krishnadev Calamur, “The Brexit Campaign: A Cheat Sheet,” The Atlantic, June 23, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/
archive/2016/06/uk-brexit-guide/482730/.12|TH opic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the
istory and Description of the Issue
Wake of Brexit
deal included a “special status” for the UK, which confirmed
existing exemptions, including non-participation in the euro-
zone.15 Another facet to this deal included new limits to wel-
fare access for EU migrants.16 However, since the referendum
was to continue as planned, the deal was ultimately unable to
slow the progression of Brexit. Heated debates between the
“Vote Leave” and “Stronger In” campaigns took place, with
the former pushing to reallocate the UK’s financial contribu-
tions to the EU for domestic priorities.17 The latter pushed
to promote the benefits of membership in the bloc, such as
collective security among member states.18 Finally, on June 23,
Anti-Brexit demonstrators gather in London
2016, the UK held its referendum, which resulted in a slim
voted to leave the EU to make room for new political lead-
majority of voters electing to leave the EU.19
ership that would guide the UK through the unprecedented
CoEU member states should also be familiar with the Brexit process of withdrawing.22 He was succeeded by Theresa May
timeline as it pertains to the body. Because of its unique and the same year, who had also previously advocated to remain
important functions, the CoEU has played an indispensable in the EU but promised to see the process through regard-
role in the withdrawal process. This role began in 2017 when less and provide a comprehensive vision for the future of the
the CoEU formally authorized the start of the Brexit negotia- UK.23 Theresa May was able to work with the EU to craft a
tions and issued directives that would serve as a mandate for withdrawal deal but struggled to garner sufficient consensus
the European Commission to carry out the talks.20 In January within the UK government to implement the plan into law.24
2018, a new set of directives was issued that would outline Her deal was rejected three times in Parliament, causing her
the EU position during the transition period that would come to resign in 2019 before the Brexit process could be complet-
after Brexit, and by the end of the year, a Withdrawal Agree- ed.25 Boris Johnson, a previous political rival of David Cam-
ment was produced that formalized this position. The pro- eron within their Conservative Party and longtime advocate
cess to ratify the agreement began in 2019 and was formally of leaving the EU, assumed the position of Prime Minister
in 2019 and remains in this position today.26 While there were
concluded at the start of 2020, when the transition period
fewer shifts in European leadership, recent changes have be-
began.21
come important to Brexit. President of the European Com-
The Brexit period was marked by several leadership changes mission Jean-Claude Junker and President of the European
in both the UK and EU that correspondingly affected the Council Donald Tusk oversaw the majority of the Brexit pe-
course of the process. David Cameron resigned after the UK riod from 2014-2019.27 Jean-Claude Junker had publicly stat-
15 “Eurozone Fast Facts,” CNN, last modified January 21, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/09/world/europe/eurozone-fast-facts/
index.html; “Cameron Secures Special Status for UK in EU,” Al Jazeera, February 19, 2016, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/
cameron-secures-special-status-uk-eu-160219223309449.html.
16 “UK Special Status in EU.”
17 Calamur, “The Brexit Campaign.”
18 Calamur, “The Brexit Campaign.”
19 Walker, “Brexit Timeline,” 7.
20 “Brexit - Consilium,” Council of the European Union, last modified March 6, 2020, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-uk-
after-referendum/.
21 “Brexit - Consilium.”
22 “PM-In-Waiting Theresa May Promises a ‘Better Britain’,” July 11, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36768148.
23 “PM-In-Waiting.”
24 “Theresa May Resigns Over Brexit: What Happened?,” BBC News, May 24, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48379730.
25 “Theresa May Resigns.”
26 “Boris Johnson Becomes the UK’s New Prime Minister,” BBC News, July 24, 2019, https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/49081103.
27 “Brexit: Donald Tusk Tells European Union to Approve Deal,” BBC News, November 24, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-
politics-46330380.Topic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit
History and Description of the Issue |13
ed his opposition to Brexit on several occasions, and by the examine the nature of current EU-UK economic interactions
conclusion of his term expressed his regret over spending so to determine the future relationship between both parties.
much of his tenure dealing with the process.28 Donald Tusk
The EU and UK are significant partners in trade and eco-
had also urged the UK to stop Brexit but later pushed for the
nomic activity, which means that there are many factors to
EU to approve the Brexit deal so that the withdrawal could
consider in future negotiations. The EU as a whole is cur-
move forward.29 In 2019, German politician Ursula von der
rently the UK’s single largest trading partner, accounting for
Leyen was elected as the head of the European Commission,
45 percent of UK exports in goods and services (totaling
and Belgian politician Charles Michel became President of
USD 359.8 billion) and 53 percent of imports (totaling USD
the European Council (not to be mistaken for the CoEU, the
441.4 billion) in 2018.34 As a member of the EU, the UK was
presidency of which is rotated between member states).30 The
not required to pay EU tariffs, and so tariffs have become
timely leadership changes in the executive branches of the EU
a point of contention. In May 2020, the UK announced its
created a new team of officials to see through the conclusion
post-Brexit plan for tariffs, which reduced significant tariffs
of the withdrawal and shift focus onto the post-Brexit rela-
on imports to the UK.35 These rules replaced the current EU
tionship—particularly by bringing renewed emphasis to the
tariff plan that the UK abides by, but if no trade deal were
EU’s trade priorities.31
reached, they would result in “substantial increases in costs
for businesses” to exchange goods for both the EU and the
Current Economic Relationship and Anticipat-
ed Changes UK.36 This is because trade between the EU and UK would
revert to WTO rules requiring costly new tariffs on exported
Since the establishment of the EU, the economic functions goods and additional customs checks.37 In addition to tariffs
of the UK have been defined by its membership in the bloc. on goods, service trade also represents an important compo-
The EU has the responsibility of coordinating trade policy nent of trade negotiations. The EU accounts for 41 percent
across all of its members, making it the largest single-market of all service exports from the UK, making it the single largest
area in the world. As a result, the body wields significant in- market for UK services.38 These services include financial and
fluence in regional and international trade negotiations.32 The professional services, tourism, transportation, and IT, among
CoEU plays an important role in this process by authorizing others.39 Because EU tariffs do not restrict these services, they
all negotiations and providing guidance on the objectives of are instead under the control of national regulations such as
future trade policy.33 However, the UK’s historic vote to leave the issuing of licenses or immigration restrictions.40 Due to
the EU has left both parties with the significant task of estab- the changing economic relationship of the UK to the EU,
lishing a new trade policy between them and, subsequently, a both parties will have to take into consideration future regula-
new economic relationship. Therefore, it is important to first tions on the substantial amount of goods and services that
28 “Brexit: Donald Tusk.”
29 “Brexit: Donald Tusk.”
30 Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Milan Schreur, “E.U Leadership Shake Up: The Most Consequential, and Controversial, Things to Know,”
New York Times, September 10, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/10/world/europe/eu-margrethe-vestager-european-commission.
html; “The Presidency of the Council of the EU,” Council of the European Union, accessed July 19, 2020, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/
en/council-eu/presidency-council-eu/.
31 Gridneff and Schreur, “E.U Leadership.”
32 “Trade,” European Union.
33 “Policy Making,” European Commission, last modified November 7, 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/policy-making/.
34 Ward, “Statistics on UK-EU Trade.”
35 Mayes, “U.K Post-Brexit Trade Plan.”
36 Mayes, “U.K Post-Brexit Trade Plan.”
37 Bryce Bachuk, “How Britain and the EU Would Trade Under WTO Rules,” The Washington Post, February 3, 2020, https://www.washing-
tonpost.com/business/how-britain-and-the-eu-would-trade-under-wto-rules/2020/02/03/1470a694-467c-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.
html.
38 Ilze Jozepa, Matthew Ward, and Daniel Harari, “Trade in Services and Brexit,” House of Commons Library, December 20, 2019, http://
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8586/CBP-8586.pdf.
39 Jozepa, Ward, and Harari, “Trade in Services and Brexit,” 4.
40 Jozepa, Ward, and Harari, “Trade in Services and Brexit,” 4.14|TH opic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the
istory and Description of the Issue
Wake of Brexit
are exchanged between them annually. The EU member states updating the existing EU-UK economic relationship to reflect
will also need to look at their respective trade relationships to both parties’ needs is sure to maintain close political and eco-
UK goods and services to better understand how these inter- nomic ties and prevent more damaging scenarios. Since the
actions will change, and which restrictions—or lack thereof— CoEU is responsible for providing directives for all EU ne-
they will choose to advocate for. gotiations, all member states have a responsibility to establish
these agreements’ terms based upon the positions of both the
The EU-UK relationship continues to evolve as Brexit devel-
EU and the UK.
ops, thus presenting unique challenges given that no member
state has ever left the EU. Since the Brexit negotiations are Another consideration for the Brexit negotiation process is
presently ongoing, and no conclusion has yet been reached, it the projected impacts on EU dynamics. The UK’s departure
is difficult to make conclusions about the full effects of this from the EU is not expected to substantially undermine the
changed relationship; similarly, changes for individual states overall trading ability of the EU on the world stage in terms of
are unclear due to the supranational character of the EU as a its agreements with other non-EU states, since it already has
trading power.41 However, examining current trends can help such a significant influence.45 Its position is aided by the many
estimate the impacts on various trading abilities of the EU standing trade deals the EU has with close economic allies,
and the UK. As service trade is an integral part of the UK’s such as Canada and Japan, that are not set to be re-negotiated
export system, the UK is a significant proponent of trade lib- due to Brexit.46 Nonetheless, the EU member states should
eralization (the removal or reduction of trade barriers such consider how dynamics will shift within the bloc, as this will
as tariffs).42 Without the UK, future EU policy is anticipated be relevant to the terms which will be established by the body.
to become “more restrictive,” resulting in more defined trade For instance, the UK’s withdrawal is expected by most EU
regulations and greater emphasis on the terms of the service- forecasters to have asymmetric impacts, meaning that not all
industry trade during negotiations.43 It is important to com- EU countries will be affected in the same way.47 Moreover,
mit to close cooperation and provide the clearest path for- the withdrawal process will require input from the entire
ward possible regarding what this new relationship will look EU27 (the remaining 27 EU member states).48 The European
like. This will become necessary to mitigate economic losses, Committee of the Regions identifies six particular sectors as
which are predicted in the wake of Brexit. A 2017 World Bank important determinants of exposure to post-Brexit vulner-
study presented to the European Parliament estimated, “Trade abilities: transport vehicles, machinery, electronics, textile and
between the UK and the EU would decline under all scenar- furniture, vegetables, foodstuff and wood, and chemicals and
ios ranging from -6 percent to -28 percent for trade in value plastics.49 These sectors were identified by the Committee as
added; the less deep the agreement on the future relations, the a starting point for policymakers to look at regarding the re-
more the trade in value added is expected to decrease.”44 In gional effects and dynamics of the withdrawal.50 To charac-
effect, more definitive agreement terms should result in better terize their post-Brexit stance, EU states should look at the
economic outcomes and a more stable economic relationship most important sectors in their economies, including but not
for both parties. While certain losses are expected to occur, limited to these sectors, and how they function within the EU
41 Hubert Zimmermann, “Brexit and the External Trade Policy of the EU,” European Review of International Studies 6, no. 1 (2019): 27-46,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26781230.
42 Zimmermann, “Brexit and External Trade Policy,” 32.
43 Zimmermann, “Brexit and External Trade Policy,” 32-33.
44 Carmen Christina Cîrlig and Laura Puccio, “The Future Partnership Between the European Union and the United Kingdom,” Eu-
ropean Parliamentary Research Service, September 2018, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/628220/EPRS_
STU(2018)628220_EN.pdf.
45 Zimmermann, “Brexit and External Trade Policy,” 41.
46 Zimmermann, “Brexit and External Trade Policy,” 41.
47 François Levarlet et al., “Assessing the Impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU on regions and cities in EU27,” European Commission
of the Regions, 2018, https://cor.europa.eu/Documents/Migrated/news/impact-brexit.pdf.
48 Levarlet et al., “Assessing the Impact,” 10-11.
49 Levarlet et al., “Assessing the Impact,” 10-11.
50 Levarlet et al., “Assessing the Impact, 55.Topic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit
History and Description of the Issue |15
and the UK. There may be competing interests that will have others.53 The transition period has two basic outcomes based
to be considered during debate. on whether or not a trade deal is reached. The negotiations
could result in a trade deal that comes into effect immediately
Additional points to consider in these dynamics are the re-
after the 11 months. If no deal is reached, trade will automati-
spective stances on the EU27 budget. The UK contribution
cally revert to default WTO regulations, which require tariffs
to the EU budget is estimated to be USD 8.8 billion and will
on goods exported from the UK that the country is currently
have to be accounted for through increased contributions by
exempt from as part of the EU Single Market.54 Any other un-
member states, further spending cuts by the same, or an ap- resolved areas of negotiation would similarly proceed under
proach that combines both of these measures.51 The CoEU’s WTO terms until a deal is eventually reached.55 While most
objective will not be to propose a new EU budget, but rather economic activity during the transition period is functioning
to guide the future relationship for its members. Therefore, in the same way, several key changes are important to note.
it is necessary to be aware of the economic changes that are The UK is considered a “third country,” meaning it is no lon-
anticipated as they will come to shape regional and individual ger a member state and, as such, is not participating in other
stances. EU states will have to consider their respective eco- EU negotiations, the European Parliament, or any other EU
nomic priorities and roles within the EU after the withdrawal bodies such as the European Atomic Energy Community.56
is completed. However, the UK is still subject to EU law and the Court of
Justice of the European Union during the transition period.57
Outlining the Transition Period The many bodies related to the EU are relevant because the
The transition period’s timeline, including its major dates and UK’s access to and participation in important EU institutions
stated objectives, is crucial to understanding the objectives and mechanisms past this period will become another point
of the withdrawal process and what they mean for the future of negotiations between the EU and the UK.
EU-UK relationship. The transition period refers to the span Negotiations have largely gone according to schedule thus far,
of 11 months, starting with the UK’s exit from the EU on Jan- but the timeline remains very challenging. In February 2020,
uary 31, 2020. During this time, the UK must still abide by the both the EU and the UK approved mandates for the post-
rules and regulations of the EU.52 Because the negotiations Brexit negotiations to officially begin this process, although
are continuously evolving, it is important not only to follow several EU officials expressed difficulties in making these ar-
these developments but also to understand how they shape rangements within the time determined by the UK govern-
the outcome of this period. Since the CoEU plays an impor- ment.58 By March, this free trade agreement was set as the
tant role in shaping EU economic policy, it will also need to priority in these negotiations. Both parties stated their goal
respond to the outcomes of the negotiations once they have to have “quota-free, tariff-free trade in goods.”59 June 2020
concluded and play an active role in carrying out the negoti- was the last month to request an extension, which the UK
ated terms. Policymakers are also seeking to address matters government stated they would not do.60 Within June 2020, a
including data sharing and security, access to mutual resources virtual summit between EU and UK leaders and policymakers
such as fishing waters, and migration restrictions, among many was planned to track progress and address the next steps in
51 Gabriel Felbermayr et al., “Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy,” European Network for Economic and Fiscal Policy Re-
search, November 4, 2017, https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/EconPol_Policy_Report_04_2017_Brexit.pdf.
52 Edgington, “Brexit: Transition Period.”
53 Edgington, “Brexit: Transition Period.”
54 Edginton, “Brexit: Transition Period.”
55 Edginton, “Brexit: Transition Period.”
56 “Transition Period.”
57 “Transition Period.”
58 “Brexit: EU Ministers Agree UK Trade Talks Mandate,” BBC News, February 25, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51623444.
59 James Blitz, Jim Brunsden and Laura Hughes, “Brexit Timeline: Key Dates in the UK’s Divorce From the EU,” Financial Times, December
18, 2020, Accessed June 14, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/64e7f218-4ad4-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b.
60 Blitz, Brunsden, and Hughes, “Brexit Timeline.”16|TH opic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the
istory and Description of the Issue
Wake of Brexit
the process.61 No other alterations were made to the timeline, travel freely between the EU and the UK.66 Finally, it con-
despite indications from EU policymakers that the disruption tains provisions on Ireland, Cyprus, and Gibraltar, given their
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic would make reaching a unique relationships with both parties and the desire to pro-
conclusive deal much more difficult.62 The deadline for a full tect economic interests in these areas.67 The second important
trade deal was set for late November 2020, after which the UK document is the Political Declaration, which accompanied
would default to WTO rules because no deal could realistically the Withdrawal Agreement, and outlines the withdrawal pro-
be reached.63 It is important not only to be aware of these cess’s stated goals and the post-Brexit future.68 The document
key dates but also the outcomes which will result from them aims for a strong and flexible trade agreement “with a com-
and how these outcomes will affect the future relationship be- prehensive and balanced Free Trade Agreement at its core,
tween the two parties. Whether or not a comprehensive deal is law enforcement and criminal justice, foreign policy, security
reached between the UK and EU, it is expected that negotia- and defence, and wider areas of cooperation.”69 Part II of
tions will continue as both the EU and the UK seek to move the Declaration outlines the economic objectives with regards
past the transition period. Thus, this evolving situation will to partnership, goods, tariffs, regulation, customs, checks and
require a consistent evaluation from member states. controls, and many other crucial components of the relation-
ship, including energy policy and access to fishing waters.70
Several important documents are relevant to the transition
This document is an important beginning point in familiar-
period and the months following its conclusion. These docu-
izing oneself with the Brexit process because it outlines EU
ments will not only shape the entire negotiation process but
policy as a whole bloc that all EU states must abide by. The
will come to define the EU-UK relationship in the future, and
third important document is the EU mandate, which autho-
thus should shape all future debate on the topic. The first im-
rized the negotiations at the start of the transition period and
portant document is the Withdrawal Agreement, which details
details the steps towards “as close as possible a partnership
the legal terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, including
with the United Kingdom.”71 This mandate outlines the core
political rights and provisions for the EU’s and UK’s institu-
EU values in general economic arrangements and more spe-
tions.64 While the entire document is substantial, it will not be
cific concerns ranging from transportation standards and en-
necessary for debate to know the exhaustive legal definitions
ergy to environmental sustainability and defense.72 Thus, this
it contained. Nevertheless, it will be helpful to understand the
document will help identify the foremost priorities of the EU
purposes of this document as well as the topics which it cov-
in building a future relationship. These documents collectively
ers. The Withdrawal Agreement establishes the withdrawal
form the basis for the negotiations and provide indispensable
process’s terms and governance, outlines the financial settle-
guidance following the conclusion of the Brexit process.
ment owed by the UK, and terminates current arrangements
so that new terms can be negotiated.65 It also addresses the
Options and Directions for a New Trade Deal
EU citizens’ rights, specifically those currently living in the
UK, by protecting their existing freedoms to live, work, and Concerning the trade deal, which is the number one priority in
61 Blitz, Brunsden, and Hughes, “Brexit Timeline.”
62 Adler, “War of Deadlines.”
63 Blitz, Brunsden, and Hughes, “Brexit Timeline.”
64 “The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement,” European Commission, accessed June 15, 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-
united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en.
65 “The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, European Commission.
66 “The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, European Commission.
67 “EU-UK Withdrawal.”
68 European Commission, Political Declaration, 2-3.
69 European Commission, Political Declaration, 2.
70 European Commission, Political Declaration, 6-15.
71 Council of the European Union, Directives For The Negotiation of a New Partnership with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Addendum No. 1 Rev. 3 (Brussels, 2020), accessed June 15, 2020, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st05870-ad01re03-en20.
pdf.
72 Council of the European Union, Directives For Negotiation, 2.Topic A: Updating EU-UK Economic Agreements in the Wake of Brexit
History and Description of the Issue |17
the withdrawal negotiations, there are numerous options both
sides are preparing for. These will come to define the working
relationship going forward. The options can be framed in sev-
eral different ways to make sense of the possible outcomes.
The first possible framing of these options is commonly
known as a “hard” or “soft” Brexit. A hard Brexit would en-
tail a withdrawal from the EU Single Market without any par-
ticular arrangements made to preserve this relationship, as the
UK would instead operate under WTO regulations and tariffs
on goods.73 A soft Brexit would mean that the UK continues
to participate in the Single Market and abide by its laws, pos-
sibly through participation in the European Economic Area
(EEA).74 However, this is not necessarily a strict option, since
there is the potential for an arrangement such as the Customs
Union that allows for free trade within the EU in exchange for
applying a tariff on goods outside of the EU.75 This spectrum
A map of the European Single Market with EU member states in dark blue and non-
can be thought of as a choice between a stricter deal for the member states participating in the Single Market in light blue
UK that does not include them in EU trade policy or a lenient the Single Market and the Customs Union, a position then
deal that allows them to preserve their current relationship adopted by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, although at
following the withdrawal. While public opinion in the UK ap- this time of negotiations, the terms of this are not yet guar-
pears to be in favor of more participation in the Single Market anteed.77 There remains the possibility that these terms may
as opposed to less (a “softer” Brexit), the EU is opposed to change to reflect an already-existing arrangement of several
allowing this full participation without a guaranteed adherence different non-member states. For instance, the UK may stay
to EU regulations and the preservation of free movement of in the Single Market and leave the Customs Union, as Norway
labor between the UK and EU.76 While both parties have ad- did.78 Options that allow the UK to leave the Single Market
vocated for a close economic and relationship, the terms of are those similar to that of Turkey, which negotiated its own
this relationship have yet to be decided concerning the partici- Customs Union with the EU, or that of Canada, Switzerland,
pation of the UK in its current economic status. and Ukraine, which negotiated free trade agreements with the
Another possible framing of choices is one that utilizes coun- EU.79 If the UK and EU are not able to agree upon terms for
try-based examples to illustrate additional options for the UK. any of these particular arrangements, then the UK will de-
If the UK is to model itself after any of these particular prec- fault to WTO rules. While a WTO arrangement is not inher-
edents in its future relationship with the EU, then all follow- ently problematic, it would dramatically change the EU-UK
ing agreements are likely to follow the same, and therefore, relationship by imposing tariffs on goods such as cars and
the country situation could factor into the debate. Former agricultural products where there previously were none.80 The
Prime Minister Theresa May advocated for the UK to leave UK would not be permitted to change these tariffs without
73 Anond Menon and Brigid Fowler, “Hard or Soft? The Politics of Brexit,” National Institute Economic Review , no. 238 (2016): 4-12, accessed
June 17, 2020, https://www.jstor.org/stable/44396749.
74 Menon and Fowler, “Hard or Soft?,” 7.
75 Menon and Fowler, “Hard or Soft?,” 8.
76 Curtice, “Do Voters Want?.”
77 “The Options for the UK’s Trading Relationship With the EU,” Institute for Government, January 16, 2017, https://www.instituteforgovern-
ment.org.uk/explainers/options-uk-trading-relationship-eu.
78 “The Options for the UK.”
79 “The Option for the UK.”
80 Chris Morris, “Brexit: What is the ‘No Deal’ WTO Option?,” BBC News, June 16, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45112872.You can also read
