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CSIRO FUTURES
www.csiro.au
The future of
Australian
sport
Megatrends shaping the sports
sector over coming decades
A consultancy report by CSIRO for the Australian Sports Commission
Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Lisa Wilhelmseder and Naomi Boughen
February 2013
CITATION IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CSIRO FUTURES
Hajkowicz, S.A., Cook, H., CSIRO advises that the information This research was jointly funded CSIRO Futures is a research team
Wilhelmseder, L., Boughen, N., contained in this publication and conducted by the Australian which conducts foresight and
2013. The Future of Australian comprises general statements Sports Commission and CSIRO. We strategy research for industry,
Sport: Megatrends shaping based on scientific research. The are grateful to all those individuals government and community
the sports sector over coming reader is advised and needs to be with expertise and knowledge of clients. The research team
decades. A Consultancy Report aware that such information may the sports sector who attended combines economics, geography,
for the Australian Sports be incomplete or unable to be used workshops, shared their knowledge technology foresight, social
Commission. CSIRO, Australia. in any specific situation. No reliance in interviews and participated science, management science and
or actions must therefore be in online forum discussions. other disciplines to describe future
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER made on that information without trends, shocks and scenarios. The
© 2013 Commonwealth seeking prior expert professional, team draws upon the breadth
Scientific and Industrial scientific and technical advice. and depth of CSIRO expertise.
Research Organisation and the To the extent permitted by law, For further information see:
Australian Sports Commission. CSIRO (including its employees and http://www.csiro.au/futures.
All rights are reserved. Except consultants) excludes all liability to
to the extent permitted by the any person for any consequences,
Copyright Act 1968, no part including but not limited to all
of this publication covered by losses, damages, costs, expenses
copyright may be transmitted, and any other compensation,
reproduced or copied in any arising directly or indirectly from
form or by any means without using this publication (in part or
the prior written permission of in whole) and any information
the owners of this publication. or material contained in it.
C The future of Australian sport
Executive Summary – Sports Megatrends
This report by CSIRO for the Australian A Perfect Fit
Sports Commission identifies six Individualised sport and fitness activities Government, 2010). Australians are
megatrends likely to shape the are on the rise (Standing Committee becoming more health conscious. We
Australian sports sector over the next on Recreation and Sport, 2010). People are increasingly playing sport to get fit,
30 years. A megatrend represents are fitting sport into their increasingly rather than getting fit to play sport.
an important pattern of social, busy and time-fragmented lifestyles
economic or environmental change. to achieve personal health objectives. From extreme to mainstream
Megatrends occur at the intersection Participation rates in aerobics, This megatrend captures the rise of
of multiple trends and hold potential running, walking, along with gym lifestyle, adventure and alternative
membership, have all risen sharply over sports which are particularly popular
implications for policy and investment
the past decade while participation with younger generations. These sports
choices being made by community
rates for many organised sports have typically involve complex, advanced
groups, industry and government.
held constant or declined (Standing skills and have some element of inherent
The megatrends are shown below Committee on Recreation and Sport, danger and/or thrill-seeking. They are
in an interlinked and overlapping 2010). People are increasingly opting also characterised by a strong lifestyle
Venn Diagram. This captures the to go for a run with headphones and element and participants often obtain
connection between the different a music player when the opportunity cultural self-identity and self-expression
forces potentially shaping the future. arises rather than commit to a regular through these sports. These sports are
organised sporting event. Expenditure likely to attract participants through
on healthcare as a proportion of generational change and greater
total expenditure has been, and is awareness via online content (e.g.
forecast to continue, rising (Australian YouTube, Facebook, Twitter). There
is strong viewer demand for extreme
sports videos on the internet and
television. These sports are also finding
their way into the Olympic Games;
A perfect fit with a recent addition being BMX
Personalised sport for
health and fitness cycling, introduced at the Beijing 2008
Olympics. International associations for
skateboarding and rock climbing are
Tracksuits to From extreme making substantial efforts to have these
business suits to mainstream
included as Olympic sports in the future.
Market pressures and The rise of lifestyle sports
new business models
New wealth, new talent More than sport
Economic growth and sports The attainment of health,
development in Asia community and overseas
aid objectives via sport
Everybody’s game
Demographic, generational
and cultural change
1
Sport for children and adults is an effective means for
reducing the rising rates of obesity and diabetes.
More than Sport Everybody’s Game New Wealth, New Talent
The broader benefits of sport are being Australia and other countries of the Population and income growth
increasingly recognised by governments, Organisation for Economic Cooperation throughout Asia will create tougher
business and communities. Sport can and Development (OECD) face an ageing competition and new opportunities for
help achieve mental and physical health, population. This will change the types of Australia both on the sports field and
crime prevention, social development sports we play and how we play them. in the sports business environment.
and international cooperation There are indications that Australians Asian countries are investing heavily
objectives (Cameron & MacDougall, are embracing sport into their old in sports capabilities and, especially
2000; Schmitz et al., 2004). Sport age. To retain strong participation in the case of China, have rapidly
for children and adults is an effective rates, sports of the future will need improved gold medal outcomes at
means of reducing the rising rates of to cater for senior citizens. They will the Olympics over recent decades
obesity and chronic illness. If managed also need to cater for the changing (Hong et al., 2005). As disposable
appropriately, it can be an effective cultural make-up of Australia. Australian incomes grow, the populations of
mechanism to help achieve social society has become, and will continue Asian countries are becoming more
inclusion for marginalised groups and to become, highly multicultural. interested in sport. This may create
reduce crime rates. Sport can also build Different cultures have different new markets for sports television,
bridges to other countries and achieve sporting preferences and recreation sports tourism, sports equipment,
overseas aid, peace, development habits. Sporting organisations will be sport services and sports events.
and foreign policy objectives. challenged with capturing the interest
and involvement of diverse cultures. Tracksuits to Business Suits
Market forces are likely to exert
greater pressure on sport in the
future. In some sports, elite athletes
have had considerable pay rises and
large sponsorship deals. This has not
occurred in other sports (McMillan,
2011). Sports with higher salaries may
draw athletes away from those with
lower salaries. Loosely organised
community sports associations are likely
to be replaced by organisations with
corporate structures and more formal
governance systems in light of market
pressures. The cost of participating
in sport is also rising and this is a
participation barrier for many people.
2 The future of Australian sport
contents
Executive Summary – Sports Megatrends 1
Introduction 4
Exploring the Future 5
A Perfect Fit 6
From Extreme to Mainstream 11
More than Sport 15
Everybody’s Game 20
New Wealth, New Talent 25
Tracksuits to Business Suits 31
Conclusion 36
References 37
3
Introduction
Australia loves sport. It has always been and will continue to be part of our
cultural identity. From playing catch in the backyard through to the Olympic and
Paralympic podiums the majority of Australians play, watch and enjoy sport.
Sport may be defined as ‘a human rugby, swimming, cycling, netball, The megatrends presented in
activity involving physical exertion sailing and many other sports Australia this document are based on:
and skill as the primary focus of the excels on the international stage.
activity, with elements of competition
◆◆interviews with 40 people with
Sport holds economic significance to long-standing involvement in the
where rules and patterns of behaviour
Australia. The sports sector directly sports sector, conducted from
governing the activity exist formally
employs 75,000 Australians, which November 2011 to January 2012;
through organisations and is generally
equates to one per cent of the total
recognised as a sport’ (Australian
workforce. Every year Australian
◆◆a review of industry reports,
Government, 2011). Over the course government reports and academic
households spend some $A8.4 billion
of a year, 82.3 per cent of people papers relating to Australian sport;
on sporting services and products.
aged 15 and over participated at least
once annually in physical activity for
The export of sporting goods has ◆◆analysis of datasets held by public
averaged $A442 million per year over and private sector organisations
exercise, recreation or sport (Standing
the past seven years (ABS, 2011e). relating to Australian sport;
Committee on Recreation and Sport,
2010). Participation rates for children The sports played in Australia, as well ◆◆the compilation and analysis of over
are also high. Almost two thirds of as how and why we play them, are 100 trends compiled through an
Australian children participate in changing over time. This will have social online forum with 89 participants
organised sport at least once a year and economic impacts. By understanding administered by CSIRO;
outside school hours (ABS, 2011g). possible future directions for Australian
sport, government, industry and the
◆◆A workshop involving 43 sports sector
In the international arena, Australia’s and related industries experts, held
community will be better placed
performance is outstanding. When in Canberra on 31 January 2012; and
to make strategic decisions.
countries are ranked in descending
order of Olympic gold medals Australia This report summarises the outcomes of
◆◆a workshop involving 22 experts
working on high performance sport,
is placed in the top ten. In cricket, a foresight project conducted by CSIRO
held in Canberra on 23 March 2012.
in partnership with the Australian Sports
Commission. The report describes six Limitations of this report concern
sports megatrends that may redefine the data used and the scope of the
the sport sector over the next 30 years. trends. Some data sources are based
on participation in any physical
A megatrend represents a substantial
activity as opposed to organised sport.
shift in social, economic or
Hence comparisons of data from
environmental conditions into the future
difference data sources, beyond the
with implications for decision-making.
comparisons made in this report, need
There is evidence that each megatrend
to be made with caution. Prominent
is already being felt. However, the full
factors such as technology, climate
impact of each megatrend will play
change and globalisation are relevant
out in coming decades. A megatrend is
to the future of sport in Australia.
based on the aggregation and synthesis
However, these have not been included
of multiple trends. A trend is a pattern
as separate megatrends. They are
of economic, social or environmental
considered cross-cutting factors that
activity supported by data and evidence
will impact all the megatrends.
that will change the way people live
and the products they demand.
4 The future of Australian sport
Exploring the Future
The purpose of this study is to inform decisions about Australian sport by constructing
a narrative about the future. However, the future is not known with certainty. In this
study evidence and imagination are balanced to construct a narrative of the future that
is both credible and insightful. To achieve this we use the concept of the ‘futures cone’
(Figure 1) to frame the study and identify sports megatrends.
The diameters of the circles in the important trends, and the limited outcomes in the probable space.
futures cone can be considered inversely ability for statistical forecasting of However, it avoids the speculative and
proportionate to the level of certainty those data, the probable cone is hard-to-substantiate nature of the
about the future. At the current point unlikely to permit novel or insightful ‘possible’ space. The plausible cone is a
in time the circle is a pinpoint because, descriptions of the sports futures. balance of evidence and imagination.
if we can access accurate data, we have
The largest circle is referred to as While probable, plausible and possible
perfect certainty. As we project into the
the ‘possible’. This captures every futures all have a valid role. This study
future we have three circles of increasing
event that could conceivably occur aims to reside within the plausible
diameter and decreasing certainty.
in the future. The problem with space. It means that evidence already
The smallest circle is referred to as working in the possible space relates exists for each megatrend currently
the ‘probable’. This relates to future to credibility. If decision-makers occurring. However, the megatrends
events that can be forecast using cannot see a solid evidence base they are projected to play-out to a
historical data series and statistical are unlikely to use these narratives greater extent in future decades.
inference. Predictions of rainfall when making important choices.
patterns, population growth and
In the centre of the futures cone is the
economic growth may fall into this
‘plausible’ space. This moves beyond
category. Given the limited availability
the narrow, and empirically derived,
of historic time-series data on many
Possible
Plausible
Now Probable
Figure 1 The futures cone.
Source: Adapted from Voros (2003)
and Hancock and Bezold (1994).
The future
5
A perfect fit PEOPLE are fitting sport into their increasingly busy and time- fragmented lifestyles to achieve personal health objectives. Participation rates in aerobics – running and walking as well as gym memberships – have all risen sharply over the past decade while participation rates for many organised and team sports, with the exception of soccer, have held constant or declined (Standing Committee on Recreation and Sport, 2010). This is partly because society is becoming highly health-conscious. Individualised sport and physical activity is on the rise. People are increasingly opting to go for a run with the headphones and a music player rather than committing to regular organised or structured sport. For such people the notion of winning is changing. They are more concerned with beating a personal time or fitness target than beating a competitor. Their sport is tailored to meet personal needs and health is a major driver. 6 The future of Australian sport
Rise of non-organised sport and
A perfect fit
75
physical activity. The elements of skill, Total participation rate (%)
physical exertion and competition are 70
present in both organised and non- 65
organised sport. However, organised
60
sports such as cricket, soccer or sailing
regattas occur at fixed times and 55
follow structured rules and procedures. 50
Organised sports are typically managed
by a sporting club with volunteers or 45
paid staff. They involve a greater level 40
of commitment from participants. In
35
contrast, non-organised sports such 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
as running or playing soccer on the Year
beach are unscheduled and flexible. Organised physical activity Non-organised physical activity
While participation rates in organised
physical activities have remained level Figure 2 The rise of non-organised physical activity, 2001-2010.
over the past decade, participation rates Source: Committee of Australian Sport and Recreation Officials (2011).
for non-organised physical activities
have grown (Figure 2) (Committee
of Australian Sport and Recreation Individualised sport. With the exception
110
120
Change in total participation rate (%)
Officials, 2011). Non-organised physical of outdoor soccer, non-team (individual)
activity has a much higher participation physical activities, such as walking 100
rate. Possible explanations are the and running, have grown since 2001 80
71
decreasing willingness of time- compared with team sports such as
60
53
constrained people to commit to
45
netball, golf and swimming, which have
44
structured sporting activities and a recorded lesser growth or declined 40
greater emphasis on recreation, health (Figure 3). A possible explanation is that 20
-24
and fitness as opposed to competition.
6
6
people are increasingly turning to sport
-5
to achieve personal fitness goals. A game
0 -6
itself, involving competition and team -20
Aerobics/fitness
Running
Outdoor soccer
Cycling
Walking
Bushwalking
Netball
Golf
Swimming
Tennis
play, might be less important. People -40
may be less willing to commit time
needed for training and match fixtures in
some team sports. The result is a rise of
individualised sport and physical activity.
Physical activity or sport
Figure 3 Change in total participation
rates (at least once per year) for physical
activities in Australia, 2001-2010.
Non-organised physical activity has Source: Standing Committee on
Recreation and Sport (2010).
a much higher participation rate.
7
Time fragmentation. Peoples’ calendars 7000
A perfect fit
are being more densely packed with
Total participants (’000) Walking
6000
immovable events and appointments. Aerobics/fitness
This means discretionary time available 5000 Swimming
for sport and leisure is fragmented. Cycling
4000
Evidence of time fragmentation comes Running
from Australian Bureau of Statistics 3000 Golf
surveys of time usage (ABS, 2011e). Time 2000 Tennis
is classified as ‘necessary’ (e.g. sleeping, Bushwalking
1000
eating), ‘contracted’ (paid work), Outdoor soccer
‘committed’ (e.g. collecting children 0 Netball
from school) or ‘free’ (e.g. socialising, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
sport). While necessary and free time of Year
an average person’s day have decreased Figure 4 Total participants in top 10 physical activities, 2001-2010.
from 1997 to 2006, the time spent on Source: Standing Committee on Recreation and Sport (2010).
contracted and committed activities
has risen from 39 per cent to 42 per
cent (ABS, 2011e). The more people are Health matters more to Australians 800
than ever before. The Australian 700 679.4
locked into committed and contracted
Government Treasury forecasts that 600
Income ($A)
activities the more time fragmented they
become. Consequently they seek, often health expenditure as a proportion 500
serendipitous, opportunities to play or of gross domestic product (GDP) 400
294.3
will nearly double over the next 40 300
watch sport that fit into a busy schedule.
years (Australian Government, 2010). 200
Less time playing, more time Healthcare accounts for two-thirds of 100
working. While time is becoming 0
the forecast increase in total spending 2000-01 2004-05
more fragmented people are also in the Australian economy over the
spending less time on recreation. Figure 5 Increase in the income
same period (Australian Government, of fitness centres in Australia.
Between 1997 and 2006, total recreation 2010). This is connected to a general Source: Australian Bureau
time decreased from 4:28 (hours: increase in the demand for health- of Statistics (ABS, 2009).
minutes) to 4:13 per day or 1:45 less related information about products
per week. By contrast, people have and services. Health is likely to feature
increased the amount of time spent to a greater extent in people’s choices 1000
Number of businesses
in paid work by six per cent from 3:16 about sport. We are not getting fit to 824
to 3:27 per day. Within the category 800 667
play sport, we’re playing sport to get fit.
of ‘recreation’, people are spending 600
less time playing sport and more time More gyms. There has been a significant
400
watching screens. The amount of time growth in the number of fitness centres
people spend engaging in ‘sport and (a 24 per cent increase) and their income 200
outdoor activities’ has decreased even (a 131 per cent increase) across Australia 0
more, by 30 per cent, from 27 minutes over recent times (figures 5 and 6). This 2000-01 2004-05
per day to only 19 minutes. Time indicates the growing demand for fitness Figure 6 Rise in the number of
spent on audiovisual entertainment services and awareness of health issues. fitness centres in Australia.
has increased by eight per cent from Source: Australian Bureau
2:10 to 2:20 per day (ABS, 2011e). of Statistics (ABS, 2009).
8 The future of Australian sportGrowth of the fitness industry. The Rising sales of fitness equipment. Social media to build and foster
A perfect fit
Australian fitness industry provides The appetite for fitness training is fitness opportunities. Telstra’s most
products and services to improve also reflected in the sale of fitness recent survey of mobile internet use
people’s fitness. Examples include equipment. The sale of fitness on smartphones found that in 2011
gyms, personal trainers, pools, exercise equipment outperformed all other social networking sites were the fifth
equipment, sports clothing, running commodities in the sports equipment highest service accessed, after search
shoes and nutritional supplements. market in 2004-2009 in Australia, engines, mail, weather, maps/directions.
According to IBISWorld (MacGowan, with total revenues of $A318.4 million, Daily access of social networking sites
2011) in 2011-12, the fitness industry equivalent to 24 per cent of the market’s through a smartphone has increased
had revenue of $A2.9 billion and its overall value (Datamonitor, 2010). from 31 per cent in 2010 to 41 per cent
7281 individual businesses generated in 2011 and is forecast to grow (Telstra,
Rising sales of lycra. The fitness trend
profits of $A229.6 million and wages 2011). A current trend in the fitness
has spurred growth in sports fashion
of $A1.2 billion. The industry is forecast sector is the use of social media to
sales. An example of the rise in sports
to grow revenue at the rate of 3.6 per build and foster sporting communities,
fashion comes from the Lorna Jane
cent per annum over the period 2012 such as the ‘UrbanRec’ Facebook group
stores. Lorna Jane opened her first
to 2017. Future growth in the industry or the ‘RunKeeper’ app. Social media
store in Brisbane CBD in 1990. By May
will be boosted by the government and create online communities through
2011 she had opened 104 stores across
societal focus on health and wellbeing. which people can engage in sport and
Australia, generating $A90 million in
communicate sporting preferences
Personalised gyms. Gyms have started 2010 (Mills, 2011). While providing new
to a wider audience. The involvement
to diversify to capitalise on the growing business opportunities, sportswear
of sporting clubs and government
demand for fitness experiences. One fashion may exclude those from lower
would facilitate better delivery
such trend is the rise of 24-hour access socioeconomic areas or particular age
of sporting services. Smartphone
gyms, such as ‘Anytime Fitness’, ‘Jetts’ demographics such as youth who cannot
communication technology is likely
and ‘Snap Fitness’. Another trend is afford sports fashion merchandise.
to play an important role in building
to offer the customer a personalised
Social pressures influencing fitness communities into the future.
experience. An example comes from
participation. Participation in sport is
‘Virgin Active’. The company has over 170 Emergence of active electronic
influenced by a number of factors.
clubs in the UK, Italy, Spain and South gaming. Technology advances have
Weight management, social interaction
Africa, with over 900,000 members allowed physical movement to be
and enjoyment are common motivators
(Virgin Active, 2012). The company’s first incorporated into electronic games. The
for participating in sport (Allender et al.,
Australian club opened in December Wii Fit allows a player to participate in
2006). Young girls in particular are
2008, followed by another four shortly yoga, strength training and aerobics.
motivated by concerns about
after. The company differentiates itself The Wii simulates sports such as
maintaining a slim body shape and
from other fitness clubs by offering a boxing, bowling, tennis and baseball.
conforming to popular ideals of beauty
tailored customer experience through The XT3 X-treme Sports Simulator
(Allender et al., 2006). At the same time,
its ‘Who are you?’ campaign. offers extreme sports such as skiing,
however, there is a growing perception
snowboarding and wakeboarding. These
Personal training. People are seeking that participation in sport in adolescence
electronic games break the mould of
personal trainers to meet their unique does not create a desirable image,
sedentary gaming, given that, based
health and fitness needs. In 2011 particularly for adolescent girls. A survey
on the calories expended, the physical
personal training held 19.8 per cent of of adolescent girls aged between 13 and
exertion required is comparable with
the market share in the fitness industry 15 revealed the perception that girls who
light to moderate physical activity
and is forecast to grow (MacGowan, participate in sport are more likely to be
(Mileham, 2008). On this basis, active
2011). This reveals consumer demand labelled as unfeminine (Slater &
electronic gaming is a growing
for personalised fitness solutions. Tiggemann, 2010).
alternative to organised physical
activity that may grow in popularity
and encourage new participants in
unorganised physical activity.
9Emerging questions
1. What investment needs to occur in and time-efficient path to physical 3. Is there an under-developed
A perfect fit
sports to ensure the fitness trend does and mental health. For many people opportunity to engage people in
not continue to grow at the expense of fitness and exercise is a substitute sport within working hours? People,
organised sport at a community level? for organised sport. A fit and healthy especially males, now spend
There is a possibility that, as people society is undoubtedly a good thing greater amounts of time at work.
increasingly visit the gym, run, walk and a high priority. The question Furthermore, a large and increasing
and exercise they drift away from for government, sports and society portion of their recreation time is
traditional organised sport due to time is what investment needs to occur spent watching television and internet
pressure. In addition to providing the to ensure the broader benefits of screens. Therefore, an effective
fitness and health benefits attainable organised sport are accessible to all. avenue for actively engaging people
through individual exercise pursuits, This could involve partnering with in sporting activity might be through
organised sport can help build life other bodies to provide these services. their work environment. This might be
skills and capabilities for adults achieved by employers encouraging
2. How can sports best adapt the rules,
and children and develop cohesive staff participation in sporting
venues, timing and management
communities. This is particularly events and making time available
of their sports to better suit time
important for children: they learn for sport during the working week.
fragmented lifestyles and a fitness
about winning and losing, the value The benefits to employers would
oriented consumer? One of the main
of teamwork and trying hard. High be a more physically and mentally
barriers to participation in organised
participation rates also increase the healthy workforce. This may lead to
sports is the unwillingness of people
athlete pool for high performance increased levels of productivity.
to commit sufficient time. As people
sport. However, gym membership,
pack more events into their calendars, 4. Is there opportunity for partnering
running, walking, aerobics and other
and spend more time at work and with other agencies to target
fitness-oriented activities might, in
more time travelling, they are less participation in under-represented
some instances, provide a more direct
able to commit to an organised sport. groups in society? There is evidence
Technology may also help organise that higher socioeconomic groups are
group-based sporting activities at more likely to hold gym membership
convenient times. For example, there (Hillsdon et al., 2007; Powell et al.,
are smart phone applications that 2006). The trend towards individual
allow individuals to register as part of fitness pursuits may occur at the
a sport (e.g. indoor soccer) network. exclusion of lower socioeconomic
Any member can propose a game at groups that do not traditionally
any time and place. If other members have high levels of participation in
also want a game they can respond, individual fitness pursuits. Children
and if teams are formed the game living in areas of lower socio-
can take place. There may be a need economic status with the most relative
for similar innovations for organised disadvantage are nine per cent less
sports to capture people’s time and likely to participate in organised
resources. Community sporting bodies sport, as compared with children who
could better facilitate initiatives that do not have a relative disadvantage
support the community structure and and come from a ‘mid-range’ socio-
engage better with an active society. economic status1 (ABS, 2012). There
may be opportunities for sporting
bodies to partner with health-
orientated non-sport-specific agencies
in order to target these groups and
ensure participation in sport and
physical activity across all groups.
1 TheSocio-economic Indexes for areas and a child’s parents’ employment status were used as a proxy to determine a socio-economic status.
Socio-economic status was divided into quintiles and ranging from the most disadvantaged (quintile 1) to the most advantaged (quintile 5)
and compared relative to quintile 3 (ABS, 2012).
10 The future of Australian sportFrom
extreme
mainstream
to
THIS megatrend captures the rise of adventure, lifestyle,
extreme and alternative sports, which are proving
particularly popular with younger generations. These
sports typically involve complex and advanced skills and
often have some element of inherent danger and thrill
seeking. Examples include skateboarding, kite surfing,
inline skating, freestyle BMX and rock-climbing. These
sports are also characterised by a strong lifestyle element
and participants often obtain cultural self-identity and
self-expression through their involvement. International
associations for adventure sports are working hard to
obtain inclusion in Paralympic and Olympics events.
11Rise of the alternative sports culture. 80
From extreme to mainstream
Portion of total employment (%)
Alternative sports started to gain 70
popularity in many countries during
60
the 1960s and 1970s (Wheaton, 2010). Services industries
It was a time which saw ‘many middle 50
Production industries
class participants embodying counter- 40
cultural philosophies, rejecting the 30
overly rationalised, technologised and
20
bureaucratised world of traditional
sport and embracing free, fun, 10
cooperative and individualistic activities’ 0
(Donnelly, 1988). While all action 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
sports are different, many also have Year
shared characteristics, including ‘anti- Figure 7 Proportion of all employed people in the services
establishment, individualistic and/or and production industries, 1984-2010.
do-it-yourself philosophies’ (Thorpe & Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, 2011d).
Wheaton, 2011). The past five decades
have seen unprecedented growth in
participation and visibility of action
sports in the public space (Breivik, 2010). Sedentary jobs. Over the last fifty years, From extreme to mainstream. Extreme
Traditionally, young, white, middle- and the Australian workforce has shifted into sports are finding their way into the
upper-class males have been the driving service-sector and knowledge-based Olympics, the most recent addition
force of action sports, but demographics jobs (Figure 7). The social, economic being BMX cycling, introduced at Beijing
are shifting (Thorpe & Wheaton, 2011). and cultural consequences of this shift in 2008. This resulted from concerted
will be felt over coming decades. Today efforts by the International Cycling
Growth in popularity. While the majority of Australian employees Union (ICU), partly with a view to
participation rates in some mainstream work in offices, shops and other service keeping younger generations connected
and organised sports have held constant environments. It is possible that sport to Olympic cycling events. There are
or declined over the past decade, is an increasingly important avenue for substantial efforts by other international
lifestyle sports have risen on the demand experiencing the innate human drive associations to have skateboarding and
(participation) and supply (industry) for adventure and thrills. Adventure rock climbing included as Olympic sports
side. It is estimated that over 150 million sports such as rock-climbing, white in the future. Often the extreme sports
people worldwide participate in action water rafting and kite surfing are well communities are split about whether
sports (Kellett & Russell, 2009). These positioned to deliver these experiences. competing in the Olympics is desirable
sports are gaining popularity among Adventure sports provide people or not (Thorpe & Wheaton, 2011). The
large segments of Generation Y (born with an opportunity to ‘break free’. debate in the skateboarding community
between 1978-1995) who connect to a is polarised. Some members-are pushing
counter-culture of irreverence, adventure hard for entry into the Olympics line-
and freedom of expression. The data on up. Others believe such formalisation
many of the lifestyle sports remain scant. contradicts the skateboarding culture
and philosophy. Given that the very
nature of lifestyle sports is characterised
by constant change and experimentation
with new forms of self- and sport-display
Today, the majority of Australian (Thorpe & Rinehart, 2010) inclusion in
mainstream competitions may threaten
employees work in offices, shops the integral aspects of such sports.
and other service environments.
12 The future of Australian sportA competitive advantage for Australia? Scuba diving. Scuba diving, one of the compared to the previous year. Another
From extreme to mainstream
The best winter Olympics ever for main adventure sports and recreational example is ‘Extreme.com’, a 24/7 channel
Australia was Vancouver, Canada in pursuits attracting international dedicated to extreme sports that is
2010. Lydia Lassila and Torah Bright won tourists to Australia, has experienced available through Sky and Virgin Media
gold medals in relatively new extreme significant growth over the past few pay TV. ‘Fuel TV’, part of FOX Sports
and lifestyle sports – aerial skiing and decades. The number of total worldwide Media Group was launched July 1, 2003
snowboard half-pipe. Adventure sports scuba certifications (as issued by one and is now available in more than 50
have proven popular with younger of the leading certifying agencies, countries (FOX Sports Digital, 2012).
generations of Australians and, if PADI - the Professional Association of
Sports injury rates. An indicator that
they are included in the Olympics and Diving Instructors) has increased more
people are pushing the boundaries
Paralympics to a greater extent, may than 400 times from 48 thousand
in sport comes from data on sports
be an area of competitive advantage. in 1970 to over 19 million in 2010.
injury rates. A Victorian study (Andrew
Skateboarding. Skateboarding is a The rise of the X Games. The ‘X et al., 2011) analysing data from 2001
lifestyle sport experiencing a rapid Games’ are considered the Olympics of to 2007, found the rate of injury due
surge in popularity. In May 2002 a action sports, blurring the boundary to participation in sport and active
‘teen’ marketing firm in the USA asked of a music festival and sporting event recreation had increased by 10 per
Generation Y who was the ‘coolest big- (Rinehart, 2000). A brainchild of the cent each year over the study period.
time athlete’. They placed skateboarding Entertainment and Sports Programming Off-road motorsports had the highest
star Tony Hawk ahead of mega sporting Network (ESPN), the X Games plays a rate of major trauma and death at
celebrities Michael Jordan and Tiger ‘significant role in the global diffusion 118.9 per 100,000 participants per
Woods (Wheaton, 2004). There are and expansion of the action sport year, and also showed a significant
more than 990 skate parks throughout industry and culture’ (Rinehart, 2000). increase in major trauma rates over
Australia. On average two skate parks The first X Games were held in the the study period (Andrew et al., 2011).
per week have been built in Australia summer of 1995 in Rhode Island, USA, The per-capita injury rate increases
since 2005, indicating growing demand featuring 27 events in nine categories may be indicative of people taking
(Kellett & Russell, 2009). Skateboard ranging from bungee jumping to greater risks in sporting activity.
fashion and skateboard equipment are skateboarding. Following the X Games
large and fast-growing industries. success the first Winter X Games were
launched in California in 1997, drawing
Kiteboarding. Memberships of the
38,000 spectators. They were televised
Australian Kitesurfing Association (AKSA)
in 198 countries and territories in 21
have quadrupled between 2002-03
different languages (Pedersen & Kelly,
to 2010-11 from 519 to 2130 members
2000). In 2011 the games were attended
(AKSA, 2008). In response to rising
by 114,200 people and watched by 39.7
popularity in May 2012 the International
million people from the US (ESPN, 2011).
Sailing Federation (ISAF) voted that
This increase of over 30 per cent over
kiteboarding be included at the 2016
four years demonstrates the popularity
Rio Olympics. However, on 10 November
of action sports with the youth market.
2012 the International Sailing Federation
reinstated windsurfing for the Rio New media. Embracing new media the
Olympics, and dropped kiteboarding, youth market uses to watch sports, the
with a 51% majority vote. The 2011 Winter X Games were streamed
International Kiteboarding Association over ESPN’s digital networks, ‘ESPN3.
indicates it will continue to work hard to com’ and ESPN’s ‘24/7’ which saw an
get the sport into the summer Olympics increase in watched hours by 30 per cent
(International Kiteboarding Association,
2012). This shows the closeness of
kiteboarding, and other adventure and
extreme sports, entering the mainstream
On average, two skate parks per week
and being accepted into international have been built in Australia since 2005
competitions. It also reveals the
contentious nature of these decisions.
indicating growing demand.
13Emerging questions
New endurance sports and 1. Are high performance investment 2. Are notions of “winning” changing and
From extreme to mainstream
communities. ‘Tough Mudder’ is a models adaptable enough to take what might be the impact? The 100m
rapidly growing company and sports advantage of changes to emerging Olympic and Paralympic sprint is an
movement. It manages an endurance sports such as skateboarding, rock unambiguous competitive event. The
event in which teams run through an climbing and surfing? These adventure fastest time wins; athletes spend years
18-to-20 kilometre extreme obstacle sports have high participation preparing for this single event. This
course containing challenges such as rates and attract large audiences. contrasts with adventure sports, which
mudslides, rope climbing, monkey bars They are especially popular with have a strong lifestyle and recreational
and more. The company website claims younger generations. For surfing, in component. In skateboarding, the style
to have engaged over 500 thousand particular, and other adventure sports of manoeuvres is important. Winning
participants (Tough Mudder, 2012) Australia has relatively high per capita in adventure sports may not always
since its first event on 2 May 2010 in participation rates and performs be as clear-cut as winning in track
Bear Creek, Pennsylvania. In Australia well in international competitions. and field events or other traditional
the inaugural Tough Mudder challenge In the Vancouver Winter Olympics sports. While the scoring of some
took place in Phillip Island, Victoria on Australia won gold in women’s traditional sports, like gymnastics and
31 March 2012. Tickets were sold out to snowboard halfpipe and aerial skiing. ice-skating, does take account of skill
15,000 participants (The Age Newspaper, Before other new adventure sports and flair, the sum of the component
2012) with prices ranging from $A90 to gain Olympic status there may be an scores determines who wins overall.
$A150 (Tough Mudder, 2012). The Tough opportunity for Australia to develop a Competitors and spectators in
Mudder philosophy on the company competitive lead on other countries. non-traditional sports may be less
website is about overcoming challenges The question for Australia is whether concerned with winning than with
and helping teammates, rather than it can move quickly to establish other qualities of the athlete such as
winning. The popularity of these events a competitive lead in adventure stamina, skill, concentration, focus
reveals a significant niche consumer sports which may find their way and flair. These changing notions of
segment and social demographic, into the Olympics in the future? winning may have implications for
seeking physically demanding endurance future competitions and how sport is
sports. Another example of an obstacle perceived generally. Perhaps future
course event held in Australia is “The public support may be garnered
Stampede”. Endurance events and from more than simply winning.
obstacle courses of this nature may The other qualities of sport may be
provide an alternative to conventional of equal or greater importance.
triathlon and marathon events.
Accessibility of extreme sports.
Extreme sports often have high
costs, both financial physical, given
the associated risk of participation.
The capital outlay for the material
equipment required for windsurfing,
for example, is significant enough to
exclude some participants on the basis
of salary (Dant & Wheaton, 2007).
Business magazines such as Forbes and
Business Week often feature articles
and columns on extreme sports (Baker
& Simon, 2002), an indication of the
socio-economic status of participants.
14 The future of Australian sportMore than
sport
SPORT is increasingly being used as a means for governments
and companies to achieve policy objectives. At federal, state
and local levels, governments are incorporating sport into
policies to tackle adult and childhood obesity, and improve
community wellbeing. Sport is also being used as a means of
building social capital in marginalised communities. Worldwide,
governments are using sport to improve international relations
and promote peace and prosperity. The future is likely to
see an increased focus on the broader benefits of sport.
15Obesity rates. One of the biggest
More than sport
Proportion of total population overweight (%) 80
challenges facing Australia and other
OECD countries is rising obesity rates.
This will be a major factor influencing 70
sports policy in coming decades.
Governments and companies are 60
increasingly turning to sport as a means
of addressing obesity. In Australia, one 50 Canada
in two people are overweight. The England
USA
proportion of people overweight is Spain
40 Austria
projected to rise a further 15 per cent
Italy
over the next 10 years (see Figure 8; Australia
(OECD, 2010). Data from Access 30 France
Economics show that in 2008 some 3.7 Korea
million Australians were obese. This is 20
forecast to rise to between 4.7 and 7.5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
million by 2028 in the baseline low-to- Year
high scenarios (Access Economics, 2006). Figure 8 OECD obesity trends and projections, 1970 – 2020.
Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2010).
Diabetes is on the rise. Diabetes is the
fifth leading cause of death in most
developed countries (OECD, 2011a) and sport participation at school accurately Sport may reduce crime rates.
is a major health problem in Australia. predicted lower adult body mass index The evidence of sport influencing
As discussed in more detail later in this (i.e. less overweight). Playing sport at a reduction in crime rates is more
chapter, sport has an important role school also increased the likelihood of anecdotal than empirical. However,
in dealing with this, as with obesity. In participating in sport in the future. the Australian Institute of Criminology
2010, 5.7 per cent of Australian adults (AIC) states that ‘with careful planning,
aged 20-79 were estimated to suffer Sport improves mental health. Mental
sport and physical activity have crime
type 1 or 2 diabetes. The OECD average health problems carry a huge economic
prevention potential’ (Cameron &
is 6.5 per cent. In 2010, Australian and social burden. There have been
MacDougall, 2000). The AIC provides
children aged 0-14 years were above many controlled studies into the benefits
many examples where the provision of
the average OECD incidence of type of sport and exercise in the clinical
sporting facilities has been linked to
1 diabetes of 16.9 cases per 100,000 treatment of mental disorders. These
reduced crime rates. One comes from a
population, with an estimated 22.4 cases studies overwhelmingly show that
program in Canning, Western Australia
per 100,000 population (OECD, 2011a). the sport/exercise group experiences
where young offenders maintained
better outcomes than the control group
Sport may help reduce obesity. Sport swimming pools and enrolled in
(Stathopoulou et al., 2012). For example,
for children is an effective means of scuba diving courses. The manager
a population study in Finland found that
reducing obesity in adulthood. This was of the centre reported that vandalism
individuals who exercised two to three
shown in a study in the United States and theft dropped by 85 per cent as
times a week experienced significantly
of 209 African American women and a consequence of the program. The
less depression, anger, stress and cynical
277 Caucasian women aged 18 to 39 AIC also reports that petrol sniffing
distrust compared with those who
(Alfano et al., 2002). The study examined and heavy drinking, as well as juvenile
exercised less frequently or not at all
the dietary records of the women and and adult property offences in some
(Hassmén et al., 2000). Another study
conducted a pen and paper survey remote communities have drastically
of 7100 people in Germany also linked
about their sport participation during reduced during sporting carnivals.
sport and physical activity to better
school. It was found that a history of More empirical research is needed
mental health (Schmitz et al., 2004).
to better understand the possibilities
for crime prevention through sport.
16 The future of Australian sportSport as part of preventative health Sport helps build international Sport for development and peace.
More than sport
strategies. In the 2010-11 Federal Budget, relations. The Australian Government Recent years have seen a rapid
preventative health was a major priority, is actively using sport to build relations expansion of international agencies
with funding specifically targeted with overseas countries and foster involved in the new social movement
towards anti-smoking campaigns, social and economic development. called ‘Sport for Development and
preventing binge drinking and diabetes The Australian Sports Outreach Peace’ (Kidd, 2012). Today there are 166
management. As part of this funding, Program (ASOP) is an Australian organisations around the world listed
$A262.7 million was committed towards Government program that uses sport on the ‘International Platform on Sport
increasing sport funding to encourage to build the capacity of individuals for Development’ maintained by the
participation in sport and active and organisations, through the use Swiss Academy for Development. These
recreation (Department of Health and of quality sport programs for social agencies are using sport to achieve
Ageing, 2010). This was followed by benefits. It is funded by the Australian social and developmental objectives.
the establishment of the Australian Agency for International Development One example comes from the slums
National Preventative Health Agency (AusAID) and delivered by the Australian of Nairobi, Kenya, where the Mathare
(ANPHA) in 2011. By 2015, ANPHA aims Sports Commission in partnership with Youth Sports Association uses soccer
to have achieved significant growth in in-country organisations. As part of as a means of achieving equality for
the number of workplaces and schools ASOP, a number of community-based women, greater school participation
that have incorporated healthy lifestyle Sport for Development programs are and protecting the environment. The
and health promotion programs into being delivered in the Pacific Islands, UNICEF humanitarian project ‘Open Fun
employment packages or the curriculum the Caribbean and India. ASOP delivery Football Schools’ teaches children in the
(ANPHA, 2011). Sport can go some in the Pacific Islands began in 2006. Balkan countries, the Trans-Caucasus
way in helping achieve these objects. In 2009 it received an additional in countries and the Middle East about the
There is likely to be an increasing role funding, not only to extend the program perils of landmines. In 2001 the United
for sports bodies and organisations until 2014 but expand into two new Nations created the position of special
in assisting governments to position countries (Tonga and Solomon Islands) advisor on Sport and Development for
sport in health agendas such as these. and enhance the programs in the Peace (UNOSDP, 2011). Sport features
existing five countries (Nauru, Kiribati, in several important United Nations
Fiji, Western Samoa and Vanuatu). documents, including the 2000
It also included a commitment to Millennium Declaration, the 2005 World
establish new partnerships between Summit Outcome Document and the
Sport is a universal Australian, regional and Pacific Island
sports federations in cricket, netball,
2010 Millennium Development Goals
high level meeting outcome document.
language that can bring rugby league, rugby union and
Sport features in government policy.
football (soccer). The total funding to
people together, no be provided over the eight years of
At federal, state and local levels,
there is evidence of sport featuring in
matter what their origin, activity up until 2013-14 is $A32 million.
government policy to achieve social
background, religious and economic objectives. For example,
the Western Australian Government
beliefs or economic status. has a policy statement on ‘Making
healthy choices easy’ (Government
Kofi Annan, United Nations of Western Australia, 2012). This
Secretary General contains a set of six priority actions
to improve the health of employees
through sport, physical recreation and
healthy lifestyles. ‘You’re in the Game’,
an initiative by the NSW Department
17of Communities, Sport & Recreation, Sport in schools. Prior to 2009 physical Policies to boost sport for children. The
More than sport
recognises the importance of sport in education was required for a minimum Australian Government’s Active After-
the inclusion of people with disabilities of two hours per week in primary and school Communities (AASC) program is
in the community. The program sets secondary schools. However, there a program for primary school children
out a framework to create a culture of was no measurement of delivery, nor with access to free sport and other
inclusion in sporting communities. was it mandatory. Under the National structured physical activity programs in
Education Agreement published in 2009 the after-school time slot of 3.00pm to
Sport features in non-sport sectors.
this requirement no longer applies. 5.30pm. The program aims to engage
The role of sport is no longer limited
Investigations by the Independent Sports traditionally inactive children in sport
to recreation and entertainment. Other
Panel in 2009 found participation in and other structured physical activities
sectors and industries are increasingly
sport and physical activity is usually left through a positive and fun experience,
engaging with sporting bodies as a
to the discretion of individual schools and develop a love of sport that inspires
means to connect to wider audiences.
and teachers to implement (Australian them to join a local sporting club. The
The Australian Football League (AFL),
Government Independent Sport Panel, program was launched in 2004 and
for example, has several partnerships
2009). Given that sports participation piloted in 21 schools (ASC, 2007). In 2010,
with health and community wellbeing
during adolescence is associated with 190,000 children from 3270 schools and
initiatives (AFL, 2011a). AFL is a supporter
higher levels of physical activity later after-school care centres participated
of the White Ribbon Foundation aimed
in life (Tammelin et al., 2003), boosting in the AASC program (ASC, 2010).
at eliminating violence against women,
participation through participation in
the ‘Ladder’ project, a joint project
schools is likely to help in achieving
between the AFL and the AFL Players’
a more active society later in life.
Association, is aimed at addressing
youth homelessness and the partnership
with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer
and Wellness Centre aims to raise
awareness and funds for the centre. 700
Number of persons employed (’000)
Decline in trained sports teachers.
Despite the mental and physical health 650
benefits of sport there is evidence 658.5
643.3
revealing decreasing prominence of
sport and physical activity in the school 600
curriculum. In 2009, the Independent
594.5
Sports Panel reported that there has
been a decline in the number of trained 550 558.4
teachers to deliver sport programs
(Australian Government Independent
Sport Panel, 2009). ABS data support this 500
statement: employment in this group 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
has been increasing from 2000 onwards,
Year
but started to decline in 2007. In 2010
there were 643,300 people employed Figure 9 Number of coaches, instructors or teachers, 2001-2010.
as coaches, instructors or teachers (58 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, 2010a).
per cent male, 42 per cent female), a 2.3
per cent decrease compared with 2007
(Figure 9) (ABS, 2011h).
18 The future of Australian sportEmerging questions
1. How do we ensure sport becomes part
of the solution curbing raising rates
of obesity and ongoing mental health
issues? Sport has been shown to
improve people’s mental and physical
health. Health expenditure in Australia
is rising rapidly. Diabetes and obesity
are also rising rapidly, and society is
becoming more aware of the impact
of mental health issues. These trends
may place a much stronger emphasis
on sport to help achieve health
outcomes. Given the contribution of
sport to physical activity outcomes
how do we ensure the inclusion of
sport in health policy in government,
corporate and community spheres,
and should be increasingly combined
with other incentives and health
solutions to ensure a holistic
approach to combating these issues.
2. How do we ensure sport participation
rates are sufficiently high to positively
impact Australians? The Australian
Government recommends adults
have at least 30 minutes of moderate
intensity physical activity every day
of the week (Australian Government,
Australians are not benefiting from of children’s leisure time. Given the
2012). A recent survey reveals that
active participation in physical activity benefits of sport and physical activity,
at least 72 per cent of the Australian
or sport. Is there a need to raise it may be questioned whether new
population aged over 15 years fail
levels of community participation models could be introduced, or
to meet this guideline because they
given the benefits that sport and increased effort through existing
participate in physical activity less
physical activity can provide? models is required, to bolster
than five times per week (Standing
engagement in these activities.
Committee on Recreation and Sport, 3. What are the correct models for
Throughout this study many anecdotes
2010). The survey also shows that 18 ensuring children are exposed to sport
were supplied by experts about the
per cent of Australians participate in the school setting? Children are
decline in sport and physical activity
in no physical activity, 13 per cent experiencing increasing amounts
in the school curriculum. Is there
less than once per week and 22 per of screen time, which is a sedentary
a need to reinvigorate sport and
cent one to two times per week2. activity. Sport and physical activity
physical activity in the school setting?
It is clear that a large number of have been declining as a proportion
2 Statistics
that identify the number of times persons participated ‘per week’ are calculated by dividing the number of times individuals
participated in physical activity for exercise, recreation or sport during the 12 months prior to interview by 52 (that is, number of weeks in a year).
This provides an average of the number of times persons participated ‘per week’ (Standing Committee on Recreation and Sport, 2010).
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