Australia's changing climate - Climate Change in Australia
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Australia’s changing climate
Our climate is changing and this will affect most of us in some way during our lifetimes. Changes that are currently occurring include rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, sea level rise and ocean acidification. Further climate change is expected due to increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Climate research is essential in our efforts to quantify future risks and opportunities, slow the continuing emissions and adapt to the impacts associated with a warmer world. Changes to the climate will have substantial impacts on water resources, coasts, infrastructure, health, agriculture, fisheries and biodiversity. Effective emissions reduction efforts and climate change adaptation together will bring important benefits: social, environmental and economic risks will be lower; new opportunities can be exploited; and fresh thinking about climate resilience will stimulate innovation.
Global climate change
OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE
We have a good understanding of the climate system • Changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations have
and what drives change. Climate variability and change been caused by human activities.
are influenced by natural factors such as the El Niño
• It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions and solar output,
dominant cause of the observed global warming since the
as well as human factors that have increased atmospheric
mid-20th century.
concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols and
changed the land-surface. Key points from the latest global • Human influence has also been detected in warming of the
assessment1 of observed and future climate change include: atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.
1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented
over decades to millennia.
• The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of
PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen and the
• Continued net emissions of greenhouse gases will cause
concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. further warming and changes in all components of the
• The surface global warming was 0.85 °C in the period climate system. For the period 2081–2100, relative to
1880–2012 (Figures 1 and 2), and 2015 was the warmest in 1986–2005, expected changes include:
the instrumental record. – Global warming of 0.3 °C –1.7 °C under a low emissions
• During 1901–2010, global average sea level rose by 190 mm. scenario2 through to 2.6 °C –4.8 °C under a high emissions
Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal scenario 3.
expansion from warming together explain about 75% of the – Sea level rise of 0.26 to 0.55 m under a low emissions
observed sea level rise. scenario through to 0.45 to 0.82 m under a high emissions
• It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has scenario.
decreased and the number of warm days and nights has – More and longer heat waves.
increased on the global scale.
– More intense and more frequent extreme rainfall over
• It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet
large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. tropical regions.
• There are likely more land regions where the number of
heavy precipitation events has increased than where it
has decreased.
1
Mean annual temperature anomaly (°C)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
–0.6
–0.4
–0.2
0
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.25
1.5
1.75
2.5
-0.6
-0.8
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 FIGURE 2 Change in mean annual surface temperature between
1901 and 2012, showing warming over almost all regions. Trends
FIGURE 1 Global mean surface air temperature 1850 to 2015 (bars), significant at the 10% level are shown by plus symbol, areas
shown as the anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 average, with an with insufficient data are white (source: IPCC 2013) 4 .
11-year running average (black line) showing variability about an
upward overall trend (source: UK HadCRUT4)4 .
1
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group 1 Fifth Assessment Report, 2013
2
RCP2.6 – see page 3
3
RCP8.5 – see page 3
4
Figure 1 and 2 use the UK Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit Temperature series version 4
(UK HadCRUT4) dataset, plus symbols in Figure 2 show where changes are statistically significant
| 1
Climate variability and change in Australia
over the past 100 years 5
TEMPERATURE temperatures and about 5 to 1 for • Annual-average rainfall in many
night-time minimum temperatures. regions of southern and eastern
• Australian average surface air Australia has decreased since the
temperature has increased by around • Many heat extremes have been shown
1950s, particularly in southwest
1 °C since 1910 (Figure 3), with warming to be much more likely due to human
Western Australia (Figure 5).
over most areas since 1950 (Figure 4). influence, including numerous heat
records set from 2013 onwards. • Annual-average rainfall increased in
• In recent decades, months warmer than much of northern Australia since the
average have occurred more often than RAINFALL 1950s (Figure 5).
months colder than average.
• Atmospheric circulation has changed, • Decreases in heavy rainfall have
• Heat waves have increased in duration, partly due to human influence: in some tended to occur in southern and
frequency, and intensity in many regions. seasons the edge of the tropical zone eastern Australia, while increases have
• Since 2001, the number of extreme and the weather band in southern occurred in northern Australia.
heat records in Australia has Australia known as the ‘storm track’
have both moved south. In other words, • Heavy daily rainfall has accounted
outnumbered extreme cool records for an increased proportion of total
by about 3 to 1 for daytime maximum the tropics are expanding.
annual rainfall over an increasing
fraction of the Australian continent
1.5 since the 1970s.
SNOW
Mean annual temperature anomaly (°C)
1
• Average snow depths have decreased
at a number of Australian sites since
0.5
the 1950s.
0 FIRE WEATHER
• Extreme fire weather days have
-0.5
increased at 24 out of 38 Australian
sites in 1973–2010.
-1
SEA LEVEL
-1.5
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
• From 1966 to 2009, Australian average
sea level rose at a rate of about
FIGURE 3 Australian mean annual surface air temperature anomalies (bars), shown as the 1.4 mm/year.
anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 average, with an 11-year running average (black line)
showing variability but an upward overall trend (source: Bureau of Meteorology).
°C/decade
0.60 50.0
0.40 40.0
0.30 30.0
0.20 20.0
0.15 15.0
0.10 10.0
0.05 5.0
0.00 0.0
-0.05 -5.0
-0.10 -10.0
-0.15 -15.0
-0.20 -20.0
-0.30 -30.0
-0.40 -40.0
-0.60 -50.0
FIGURE 4 Trend in annual mean temperature (°C/decade) from FIGURE 5 Trend in annual-average rainfall (mm/decade)from 1950–2015,
1950–2015, showing warming over most of the continent showing an increase in rainfall in much of the north and a decrease in
(source: Bureau of Meteorology) 6. many southern areas (source: Bureau of Meteorology, see website for
other time periods).
5
For more information, see www.bom.gov.au, www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
and State of the Climate (2016)
6
Both Figure 3 and 4 use the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network
– Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset, see www.bom.gov.au
2 | AUSTR ALIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE
Australian climate projections for
the 21st century
ABOUT CLIMATE The climate we experience for a given 3. Climate response – the range of
future period depends on three main possible changes in the climate system for
PROJECTIONS factors: each RCP given our current understanding
Projections use the latest climate of how processes and feedbacks react
1. Natural climate variability – this is
science to provide detailed pictures to emissions. Scientists use computer
always present year-to-year (e.g. the
of plausible future climates. They are models of the climate system to simulate
El Niño Southern Oscillation) and
not predictions, but they illustrate the climate response to different RCPs.
decade-to-decade, and this will
the effect of different scenarios of These global climate models are based
continue as the underlying climate
human activity, including demographic on the laws of physics and are verified
changes (see box below).
change, economic development and against historical climate records.
technological advances. They assist us in 2. Greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions Simulations from 40 different models give
understanding the likely impact of future – explored using Representative a range of possible climate responses.
socio-economic pathways on the climate Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The RCP
system. The main place to find extensive number refers to the amount of extra Australian climate change projections
information on Australian climate radiative impact on the climate system account for these three factors,
projections is the website: by the end of the century. All the RCPs presenting a range of results for a
www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au are quite similar up to 2030, but grow given climate variable, region, year and
increasingly different after that (Figure 6): scenario from different global climate
models and additional dynamical and
• RCP8.5 (high) – little global action to statistical downscaling. Results in Figures
reduce greenhouse gas emissions 7–10 and Table 1 show the range of
• RCP4.5 (medium) – strong global possible change from different models
action to reduce emissions towards and the effect of different emissions
end of century scenarios (which becomes marked by
2090). Figure 7 shows the projected
1000 RCP2.6 • RCP2.6 (low) – changes in average temperature in
RCP4.5 ambitious global action Australia relative to past temperatures.
900
to reduce emissions It also indicates United Nations
CO2 concentrations (ppm)
RCP8.5
800 Framework Convention on Climate
Observed Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement
700
targets (2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming
600 since the pre-industrial era). Note these
targets have been converted to the
500 FIGURE 6 Carbon dioxide relevant thresholds for Australia (2.4 °C
concentrations from global
observations and for three and 1.8 °C) and warming to the baseline
400 RCPs in the 21st century, period has been subtracted, giving the
showing an increase values of 2.05 °C and 1.45 °C.
300 proportional to human
1950 2000 2050 2100 emissions7.
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Warming of the climate system over However, the climate has always varied are combined with natural variability,
the past century is a well-established from year to year and from decade to there are periods of rapid change and
fact, and the long-term trend in surface decade, and always will. This is due to periods of little change. For example,
temperature is clear for the globe drivers of natural variability such as the global warming trend in Figure 1
(Figure 1) and for Australia (Figure 3). the El Niño Southern Oscillation, shows periods of rapid warming from
A good indicator of heat in the climate volcanic eruptions, and variations on 1910–1940 and 1970–2015, separated by a
system is the temperature of the oceans: the sun’s output. In addition to natural period of little change. Trends calculated
since 1971, 90% of the extra energy variability, increases in greenhouse over short periods, such as 10–20 years,
accumulated in the climate system gases and aerosols due to human are very sensitive to the choice of start
has gone into the oceans, and the activities contribute to global warming and end years.
temperature of the upper 700 m and other climatic trends. Since trends
of the ocean has risen.
7
Adapted from Van Vuuren D, et al. 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5–31
| 3
CONFIDENCE IN THE of evidence. Ratings range from very that accounts for uncertainty and risk.
high to low, depending on the amount Projections with high or very high
PROJECTIONS of evidence and the level of agreement confidence can be used to develop
Confidence in the direction and range between the different lines of evidence. management decisions, whereas
of projected change is key information projections with low to medium
when viewing and using climate The confidence ratings are important confidence require a more cautious
projections. Confidence ratings have considerations when using the approach, with more emphasis on
been derived for different climate projections for adaptation and flexible management, monitoring and
variables, regions, emissions scenarios mitigation activities. These activities general building of climate resilience to
and time periods, based on five lines must use a decision-making framework an uncertain future.
CLIMATE
MODEL RESULTS High agreement High agreement High agreement
Limited evidence Medium evidence Robust evidence
CONFIDENCE SCALE
MODEL PROCESS
EVALUATION UNDERSTANDING
Medium agreement Medium agreement Medium agreement
Limited evidence Medium evidence Robust evidence
OBSERVED
DOWNSCALING
TRENDS
AGREEMENT
Low agreement Low agreement Low agreement
Limited evidence Medium evidence Robust evidence
CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT
EVIDENCE (type, amount, quality, consistency)
Lines of evidence used to assess confidence. Table used to assign confidence ratings.
4 | AUSTR ALIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE
Australian climate projections at a glance
TEMPERATURE DROUGHT FIRE WEATHER OCEANS
• Australia’s average temperature • The time in drought will increase • Southern and eastern Australia are • Sea levels will continue to rise
will increase, with more hot over southern Australia, with projected to experience harsher throughout the 21st century and
extremes and fewer cold a greater frequency of severe fire weather (high confidence). beyond (very high confidence).
extremes (very high confidence). droughts (high confidence).
• Oceans around Australia will
warm and become more acidic
(very high confidence).
• There is medium confidence that
SNOW long-term viability of corals will
RAINFALL EVAPORATION AND be impacted and that there will
SOIL MOISTURE
• There will be a decrease in be harm to marine ecosystems.
• In southern Australia, winter and snowfall, an increase in the
spring rainfall is projected to • A projected increase in melting of snow that does fall
decrease over the whole century evaporation rates will contribute and thus reduced snow cover
(high confidence), although to a reduction in soil moisture (high confidence).
increases are projected for in southern Australia (high
Tasmania in winter (medium confidence).
confidence).
• In northern Australia, substantial
changes to wet-season and
annual rainfall is possible over EXTREME EVENTS
the century, but there is low • Extreme rainfall events that
confidence in the direction of HUMIDITY lead to flooding are likely to
future rainfall change.
• There is high confidence that become more intense (high
inland humidity will decrease confidence).
• Southwest Western Australia in winter and spring as well as
has already seen reductions in
annually, and there is medium
• The number of tropical cyclones
rainfall due to human influence, is projected to decrease but
and further drying in winter confidence in declining relative with a greater proportion
is a particularly confident humidity in summer and autumn. of intense cyclones (medium
projection. confidence). Higher sea levels Projections of change are for all
and rainfall intensity will affect scenarios, with greater change
their impact. under higher scenarios.
6
Model range Model range
Climate model median Climate model median
5 2050s: the 2013
Observed Australian Australia’s climate model
Australia’s temperature anomalies from 1950–2005 (˚C)
temperature data (example series) record is a cool year
under medium or
4 high emissions
3
RCP8.5
2013 was 23 °C,
Australia’s
Target from Paris agreement 2 °C global warming warmest year
2 on record
Aspirational target from Paris agreement 1.5°C global warming
RCP4.5
1 1938 was 22 °C
RCP2.6
0
−1
Observed data, plus climate model Projected
−2 simulations of the historical period
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
FIGURE 7 Australian mean annual surface warming in the past and for future emissions pathways. Series
are relative to the 1950–2005 average: brown is observations 8 , shading is the range of 20-year averages
from up to 40 climate models, thick lines are the median of the models, purple is a simulation from
Australia’s community climate model (ACCESS) showing what a future time series may look like for high
emissions including year-to-year variability. Global warming targets from the Paris Agreement are shown
8 relative to pre-industrial temperature and converted to a relevant temperature band for Australia.
Bureau of Meteorology ACORN-SAT
| 5
Some of the largest projected climate Frost risk days 35 °C days
change impacts will be felt through Current
2030
changes to extreme weather. For Perth 2090 RCP 4.5
example, an increase in extremely 2090 RCP8.5
hot days (Figure 8) will lead to greater
energy demand for air conditioning,
Canberra
more black-outs, more heat-related
deaths, increased fire risk and transport
disruption. Fewer extremely cold 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80
nights will lead to reduced energy Days per year Days per year
demand for heating, less cold-stress,
less frost-damage to crops, less snow FIGURE 8 Projected changes in the annual-average number of frost risk days (nights
and reduced yield for stone fruit and below 2 °C) and days over 35 °C for Perth and Canberra stations relative to the 1981–2010
apples. period for 2030 (where emissions scenarios are similar), and for 2090 for medium and
high emissions. The graph shows a reduction in cold extremes and an increase in hot
extremes with time, proportional to the emissions scenario.
Annual total rainfall varies substantially
from year to year. Rainfall is projected
to increase in some areas and seasons, Historical Projected Simulations
and decrease in others, and in some 60 10−90% of years 10−90% of years RCP8.5 60
10−90% of 20 year trend 10−90% of 20 year trend RCP4.5
areas substantial change is possible
Rainfall change in % of 1950–2005
Median Median NatVar
but the direction of change is unclear. 40 AWAP example Model 40
Projected changes are generally larger
for the higher emissions scenarios. 20
20
Southern Australian rainfall is
projected to decrease, mainly in the
cooler months, but with some regional 0 0
exceptions. Substantial increase
or decrease is possible in northern –20 −20
Australia, but more research is needed
to understand which is more likely. –40 −40
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Future Pathways
FIGURE 9 Southern Australian rainfall variability and change relative to the 1950–2005
average. Observations9 (brown) show the substantial variability experienced. The range
between 40 climate model results (coloured bands) shows large variability but with a
projected decrease simulated by most models. The dark line gives the central estimate
of models. Lighter shading indicates year-to-year variability. An example of Australia’s
climate model (ACCESS-1.0) shows what an actual time series may look like, with year-
to-year variability. Bars to the right show the range at 2090 relative to 1986-2005 for
natural variability only, medium emissions and high emissions.
Historical Projected Simulations
60 10−90% of years 10−90% of years RCP8.5 60
10−90% of 20 year trend 10−90% of 20 year trend RCP4.5
Rainfall change in % of 1950–2005
Median Median NatVar
40 AWAP example Model 40
20 20
0 0
–20 −20
–40 −40
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Future Pathways
FIGURE 10 Northern Australian rainfall variability and change, showing ongoing large
variability and an uncertain projection – substantial increase or decrease is possible.
Details as for Figure 9.
9
Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) data, see www.bom.gov.au
6 | AUSTR ALIA’S CHANGING CLIMATE
TABLE 1 Projected climate changes by 2090, relative to 1995, averaged Regions
over the four regions shown in the map: Northern, Southern, Eastern Eastern Australia
and Rangelands for RCP8.5 (purple), RCP2.6 (Yellow), or where RCP2.6
Northern Australia
results are not available, RCP4.5 (blue). Results are the range of change
from the available climate models (the 10–90% range, so excluding Rangelands
the 10% outliers), emphasising the range of possibilities rather than a Southern Australia
single ‘best estimate’.
See www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au for more information
SOUTHERN EASTERN NORTHERN RANGELANDS
Annual temperature 2.7 to 4.2 °C 2.8 to 5 °C 2.7 to 4.9 °C 2.9 to 5.3 °C
0.5 to 1.4 °C 0.6 to 1.6 °C 0.5 to 1.6 °C 0.6 to 1.8 °C
Sea level rise Geelong Newcastle Darwin Port Hedland
0.38 to 0.82 cm 0.46 to 0.88 cm 0.41 to 0.85 cm 0.40 to 0.84 cm
0.22 to 0.53 cm 0.22 to 0.54 cm 0.22 to 0.55 cm 0.22 to 0.55 cm
Annual rainfall -26 to 4 % -25 to 12 % -26 to 23 % -32 to 18 %
-15 to 3 % -19 to 6 % -12 to 3 % -21 to 3 %
Summer rainfall -13 to 16 % -16 to 28 % -24 to 18 % -22 to 25 %
-22 to 6 % -20 to 13 % -16 to 4 % -22 to 8 %
Autumn rainfall -25 to +13 % -33 to 26 % -30 to 26 % -42 to 32 %
-17 to 11 % -25 to 15 % -18 to 11 % -26 to 18 %
Winter rainfall -32 to -2 % -40 to 7 % -48 to 46 % -50 to 18 %
-9 to 4 % -24 to 9 % -32 to 13 % -31 to 12 %
Spring rainfall -44 to -3 % -41 to 8 % -44 to 43 % -50 to 23 %
-23 to +4 % -26 to 11 % -32 to 13 % -32 to 15 %
Evapotranspiration 8 to 17 % 9 to 18 % 8 to 17 % 6 to 16 %
2 to 5 % 3 to 7 % 2 to 6 % 0 to 4 %
Extreme rainfall (20-year average 5 to 30 % 13 to 45 % 3 to 65 % 8 to 42 %
recurrence interval) 1 to 19 % 0 to 28 % 0 to 31 % 4 to 20 %
Fire weather – days over McArthur Baseline: 2.8 Baseline: 1.2 Changes less clear Changes less clear
forest fire danger index 50 5.3 3.2
3.8 1.9
RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP4.5
USING CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
Climate projections can be used at the It is important to seek guidance from The National Climate Resilience and
global, national or local scale to address experts to find information that is fit Adaptation Strategy11 provides a
a range of questions about climate risks for purpose. number of examples in which climate
and opportunities. Different levels of projections have been used to assess
detail are useful for different activities There are several steps and numerous impacts and guide decision-making.
and stakeholders: inputs when assessing climate risks
and opportunities. Information is
• Simple qualitative statements are needed about current climate and
sufficient for raising awareness. projected climate change, but also
• Quantified ranges of change in climate exposure (what is at risk) and
specific climate variables can be the adaptive capacity (what can be done
used in impact assessments. to reduce risk). Various risk assessment
frameworks10 are available. The aim
• Interactive web-based tools allow is to develop robust “adaptation
people to explore information in
pathways”, where different actions
different ways.
are implemented depending on when
• Tailored climate products and services critical thresholds are crossed.
may be needed for specific decisions.
10
http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/modelling-and-projections/using-projections/impact-assessment/
11
https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/strategy
| 7
Climate impacts in Australia
Extreme weather and climate events more than 2000 homes, burnt about in climate, sea level, atmospheric carbon
significantly affect the vulnerability of 430,000 hectares, and cost about dioxide and ocean acidity are projected
our economy, society and environment. $4.4 billion12 . to have substantial negative impacts on
Some changes to extreme events have water resources, coasts, infrastructure,
already been observed in Australia –
• The floods in eastern Queensland in health, agriculture and biodiversity 16.
early 2011 cost more than $5 billion in
notably an increase in fire weather,
lost revenue, and the loss of 33 lives12 . Some communities and sectors in some
record-breaking temperatures and
heatwaves. Understanding the causes of • Heatwaves in 2013 (Australia’s hottest locations have the potential to benefit from
individual extreme events is difficult, and year), 2014 and 2015 had substantial projected changes in climate and increasing
is a field of active research.12 impacts on infrastructure, health, atmospheric carbon dioxide, for example:
electricity supply, transport and
• High sea surface temperatures have agriculture 12 . • Reduced winter mortality for people,
repeatedly bleached coral reefs in crops and livestock.
north-eastern Australia since the late • From November 2015 to January 2016,
South Australia’s Pinery bushfires • Reduced energy demand for winter
1970s and more recently in Western heating in southern parts of Australia.
Australia. The 2016 bleaching event (26 November), the Sydney tornado
was the most severe on record and (17 December), the Great Ocean Road • Increased forest growth in cooler
affected most of the reef 13. bushfires in Victoria (26 December) and regions, except where soil nutrients or
the bushfires in Western Australia’s rainfall are limiting.
• Widespread drought in southeast south west (8 January) cost $515 million
Australia (1997–2009) resulted in in insured losses15 . • Increased spring pasture growth in
substantial economic losses14 . cooler regions.
• The June 2016 storm that lashed
• The southeast Australian heatwave Ongoing research into how the climate
Queensland, NSW, Victoria and
in late January 2009 resulted in 374 is changing at a regional level is critical
Tasmania caused significant flooding
more deaths in Victoria than would be to identify both the challenges and
and coastal damage, with insurance
expected normally 12 . opportunities associated with climate
losses of $235 million 15 .
change, and to inform management and
• The Victorian bushfires in early The frequency and/or intensity of such policy decisions.
February 2009 killed 173 people and events is projected to increase in many
more than 1 million animals, destroyed locations. Without adaptation, changes
Managing climate change through
adaptation and mitigation
Adaptation and mitigation are MITIGATION processes, greater use of sustainable
complementary strategies for reducing transport and enhanced carbon uptake
and managing the risks of climate Substantial emissions reductions over in the landscape.
change. Mitigation seeks to reduce the next few decades can reduce
net emissions to limit the extent of climate risks in the 21st century and
beyond, increase prospects for effective
ADAPTATION
climate change, while adaptation
helps individuals, communities, adaptation, reduce the costs and Adaptation can involve gradual
organisations and natural systems deal challenges of mitigation in the longer transformation with many small steps
with those consequences of climate term, and contribute to climate-resilient over time, or major transformation with
change that emissions reduction pathways for sustainable development. rapid change. There are engineering and
cannot help us avoid. built-environment solutions, institutional
Mitigation actions include enhancing solutions, technological solutions and
energy efficiency, greater use of ecosystem-based solutions.
renewable energy, improved industrial
12
ACCSP brochure on Weather extremes and climate change: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/climatechange/resources.shtml
13
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority: http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/media-room/coral-bleaching
14
van Dijk AIJ, et al., 2013. The Millennium Drought in in southeast Australia (2001–2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources,
ecosystems, economy, and society. Water Resources Research, 49, p 1040-1057
15
Insurance council of Australia. 2016 media releases. www.insurancecouncil.com.au/media-centre
16
Reisinger, A. et al., 2014. Australasia. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Barros, V.R., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1371-1438.
8 | AUSTR ALIA’S CHANGING CLIMATETOOLS emissions, vulnerability to climate Australia needs a strong foundation
change impacts and tolerance for risk. in policies, laws, institutions and
Decision-support tools are useful Some actions, such as energy-efficient investments in research and technology to
for assisting decision and policy building design, water conservation and further reduce greenhouse gas emissions
makers to assess the climate urban greening, have mitigation and and build the resilience of communities,
risks in their region or sector, adaptation benefits. the economy and the environment.
and to inform the development
of climate ready plans and
adaptation strategies. For
example:
• The National Climate Change
Adaptation Research Facility
is working closely with
Adaptation
governments, businesses, and
communities around Australia
solutions
to develop CoastAdapt17,
an online tool to help local
governments and other
relevant organisations
understand and manage the
risks associated with sea level
rise, storm surges and other
coastal hazards.
• CSIRO’s AdaptNRM18 tool
provides support for natural
resource managers to develop
climate-ready plans.
• The AdaptWater19 tool quantifies
the risk associated with climate
change and extreme weather
events to water utility assets.
The tool performs cost-
benefit analyses on proposed
adaptation options to inform
planning and investment
decisions.
The National Climate Resilience
and Adaptation Strategy20 sets
out how Australia is managing
the risks of a variable and
changing climate. It identifies
a set of principles to guide
effective adaptation practice and
resilience-building, and outlines
a vision for a climate-resilient
future.
As the strategy highlights, the
best mix of climate change
adaptation, resilience-building
and emissions reduction
policies varies from country to
country depending on emissions
intensity, the cost of reducing
17
https://www.nccarf.edu.au/content/coastal-tool-overview
18
http://adaptnrm.csiro.au/
19
https://www.nccarf.edu.au/localgov/case-study/adaptwater%E2%84%A2-online-climate-change-analysis-tool
20
https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/adaptation/strategy
| 9For further information:
CSIRO Enquiries Bureau of Meteorology
1300 363 400 climate.helpdesk@bom.gov.au
+61 3 9545 2176
enquiries@csiro.au
www.csiro.au/enquiries
© 2016 CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology. To the extent No reliance or actions must therefore be made
permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part on that information without seeking prior expert
of this publication covered by copyright may be professional, scientific and technical advice. To the
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