AusNet Electricity Services Pty Ltd - Electricity Distribution Price Review 2022-26 Part I & II
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AusNet Electricity Services Pty Ltd Electricity Distribution Price Review 2022-26 Part I & II Submitted: 31 January 2020
AusNet Services About AusNet Services AusNet Services owns and operates key regulated electricity transmission and electricity and gas distribution assets located in Victoria, Australia. These assets include: • A 6,685 kilometre electricity transmission network that services all electricity consumers across Victoria; • An electricity distribution network delivering electricity to approximately 737,000 customer connection points in an area of more than 80,000 square kilometres of eastern Victoria; and • A gas distribution network delivering gas to approximately 710,000 customer supply points in an area of more than 60,000 square kilometres in central and western Victoria. AusNet Services’ vision is to create energising futures by delivering value to our customers, communities and partners. For more information visit: www.ausnetservices.com.au Contact This document is the responsibility of the Regulated Energy Services division of AusNet Services. Please contact the indicated owner of the document below with any inquiries. Charlotte Eddy Manager Economic Regulation AusNet Services Level 31, 2 Southbank Boulevard Melbourne Victoria 3006 Tel: (03) 9695 6000 REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 2 / 69
AusNet Services Contents Table of Contents Highlights ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 Executive summary ..................................................................................................................................... 9 The Customer Forum: putting customers at the heart of developing our plans ............................................ 9 How we are delivering improved affordability for customers ....................................................................... 10 How we are delivering better experiences and services for customers ...................................................... 12 How we are supporting the energy sector transition and unlocking solar exports for the benefit of all customers ..................................................................................................................................... 13 How we are delivering improved safety for customers ................................................................................ 15 Details of the 2021-22 to 2025-26 revenue proposal .................................................................................. 15 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 19 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 21 1.1 Structure of this Regulatory Proposal .......................................................................................... 21 1.2 Presentation of cost information .................................................................................................. 22 1.3 Supporting documentation ........................................................................................................... 22 Part I – Customer Engagement, Findings and Feedback ...................................................................... 23 Key Points.................................................................................................................................................... 24 Part I structure ............................................................................................................................................. 24 2 Customer Forum ........................................................................................................................ 25 2.1 Customer Forum trial ................................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Role and objectives of the Customer Forum................................................................................ 27 2.3 AER role in the Customer Forum trial .......................................................................................... 28 2.4 Scope of negotiations................................................................................................................... 28 2.5 Key outcomes of the first round of negotiations with the Customer Forum ................................. 29 2.6 Key outcomes of the final round of negotiations with the Customer Forum ................................ 31 2.7 Positive outcomes of the Customer Forum process .................................................................... 32 3 Understanding our customers’ views ...................................................................................... 35 3.1 Key points .................................................................................................................................... 35 3.2 Customer research and engagement activities ........................................................................... 35 3.3 Customer Consultative Committee and Consumer Challenge Panel .......................................... 40 3.4 Supporting documentation ........................................................................................................... 40 4 Customer and stakeholder views ............................................................................................. 42 4.1 Feedback on key issues............................................................................................................... 42 4.2 Feedback on Draft Proposal ........................................................................................................ 43 4.3 Summary of customer research studies ...................................................................................... 46 4.4 How we are responding to customer views ................................................................................. 50 Part II – Improving customer experience ................................................................................................ 52 5 Improving customer experience ............................................................................................... 53 Key Points.................................................................................................................................................... 53 Part II Structure ........................................................................................................................................... 53 REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 3 / 69
AusNet Services Contents 5.1 Customer Satisfaction Incentive Scheme (CSIS) ........................................................................ 53 5.2 Agreed customer experience initiatives for immediate action...................................................... 54 5.3 Post 2020 proposed customer experience initiatives .................................................................. 62 REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 4 / 69
AusNet Services Glossary Glossary Abbreviation Full Name AARR Aggregate annual revenue requirement AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator AER Australian Energy Regulator AMS Asset Management System ASIC Australian Securities and Investments Commission BAU Business-as-usual CBD Central Business District CAM Cost Allocation Methodology capex Capital Expenditure CCP Consumer Challenge Panel CESS Capital Efficiency Sharing Scheme CGS Commonwealth Government Security DGM Dividend Growth Model DNSP Distribution Network Service Provider EAM Enterprise Asset and Works Management EBSS Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme EGWWS Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services EPA Environment Protection Authority ERP Enterprise Resource Planning Platform ESC Essential Services Commission ESMS Electricity Safety Management Scheme ESV Energy Safe Victoria EUAA Energy Users Association of Australia FMECA Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 5 / 69
AusNet Services Glossary Abbreviation Full Name GDP Gross Domestic Product GFC Global Financial Crisis GIS Gas Insulated Switchgear GST Goods and Services Tax IAP2 International Association of Public Participation ICT Information and Communication Technology IT Information Technology KPIs Key Performance Indicators LMA Linking Melbourne Authority MAR Maximum Allowed Revenue MTFP Multilateral Total Factor Productivity MVA Mega Volt Amps NEL National Electricity Law NEM National Electricity Market NEO National Electricity Objective NER National Electricity Rules NGO Non-Government Organisation NIST-CSFCI National Institute of Standards and Technology Cyber Security Framework for Critical Infrastructure NPV Net Present Value NSP Network Service Provider OH&S Occupational Health and Safety Opex Operating and Maintenance Expenditure PCRs Protection & Control Requirements PPIs Partial Performance Indicators PTRM Post Tax Revenue Model PV Present Value REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 6 / 69
AusNet Services Glossary Abbreviation Full Name RAB Regulatory Asset Base RCM Reliability Centred Maintenance repex Replacement expenditure RIN Regulatory Information Notice RPP Revenue and Pricing Principles SAIP Smart Aerial Image Processing SAUR Shared Asset Unregulated Revenues SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition STPIS Service Target Performance Incentive Scheme VCR Value of Customer Reliability WPI Wage Price Index REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 7 / 69
AusNet Services Highlights Highlights Bills cut by Under our proposal our customers will receive an average $110 cut (in real $110 per terms) to their electricity distribution network bill at the start of the regulatory customer period. In addition, residential and small business customers would pay $30 less on average for their annual metering bill. Business hours remote disconnection and reconnection fees will also be abolished saving customers $750,000 each year. Service levels have not been compromised to achieve this cut. Customers AusNet Services has engaged more extensively and closely with customers involved than ever before to develop our plans. Elements of our plans have been directly in our agreed with an independent Customer Forum as part of a ground-breaking trial. plans The Customer Forum has negotiated on around 40% of the forecast revenue for standard control distribution services and all revenue for metering services. The AER will consider these agreements as part of its review of our proposal. Customer AusNet Services has agreed a number of initiatives with the Customer Forum service to improve service delivery including: more frequent and accurate benefits are communication during outages; giving large customers and Councils a being dedicated point of contact in our organisation; making it easier for customers delivered to get compensation if we have accidentally damaged their equipment and continuing to improve the support our call centre provides to customers. We have also proposed stronger incentives to improve customer satisfaction. Investment in AusNet Services has obligations to minimise the risk electricity assets present safety to both the public and its employees. This proposal includes expenditure for improvements the ongoing installation of technology to reduce the risk of powerline-related will continue bushfires. The technology, known as Rapid Earth Fault Current Limiter or REFCL, is being installed in selected high bushfire risk areas. We are Our customers are part of the major energy system transition that is underway. supporting Customers are adopting a range of new technologies that are changing how they the energy use our network, especially rooftop solar. Around 20% of our customers currently system have solar and this is forecast to increase by approximately 60% to 225,500 transition customers by 2026. More wind farms and other generators are also connecting to our network. This means the electricity transport service that we provide has changed from a one-way to a two-way service. We will need to invest to manage and support these new electricity sources for the benefit of all customers (both those with solar and those without). To do this we are proposing modest network expenditure and innovation expenditure. Customers and their advocates that we have spoken to support the proposed expenditure to allow solar exports onto our network and modest innovation investment to prepare for, and assist, this change. A proposal AusNet Services’ proposal offers sustainable price outcomes for customers that balances while improving their experience, delivering safe and reliable services and conflicting ensuring long-term stable cashflows to fund the business. AusNet Services pressures has sought to moderate prices by cutting costs, absorbing step changes in operating expenditure, continuing to invest in demand management and taking a conservative approach to investing in network augmentation to support solar. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 8 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary Executive summary This proposal is about our customers, what they need and want now and in the future. It is about where we need to improve and how we intend to deliver those improvements. Our customers rely on us to provide an affordable, safe and reliable electricity supply. We say this with confidence because AusNet Services has developed its plans with our customers in a way that is ground-breaking for our industry. In an Australian first, we have appointed a Customer Forum specifically to represent our customer base and negotiate on their behalf as this proposal was developed. As part of this process we have spoken with an unprecedented number of our customers. This has included over 4,700 conversations with individual customers and advocates. The Customer Forum has also spoken directly to many more. The messages from our customers have been clear. They say: • Many of us are struggling just to pay the bill – affordability is our number one concern; • Proactively communicate important information – particularly during outages, when we want to connect or when we need a claim or complaint resolved; • Reliability and safety is our baseline expectation – don’t compromise on this; and • We are changing the way we want to generate, share and use electricity – AusNet Services needs to support us including to export our solar electricity. This proposal sets out in detail how AusNet Services has responded to our customers’ preferences in our plans for the electricity distribution network for the regulatory period commencing on 1 July 2021 and ending on 30 June 2026 and the revenue that will be required to deliver those plans. The Customer Forum: putting customers at the heart of developing our plans We have worked intensively with the Customer Forum all the way through the process of developing our proposal. The Customer Forum members were chosen in an independent and rigorous process for their diverse and complementary skills and experience, their ability to credibly represent the perspectives of our customers, their understanding of consumer issues and their analytical ability. The Customer Forum Chair is a former Consumer Affairs Minister for Victoria, with other members bringing skills in vulnerable customer support, customer research, finance and community leadership. The Customer Forum has negotiated directly with our business to develop key parts of our plans. The Customer Forum has negotiated on: • Around 40% of the forecast revenue for standard control distribution services, including the majority of operating expenditure (opex) case and 7% of capital expenditure (capex) case; and • All revenue for metering services. We are the first Australian utility to work with a Customer Forum and this successful trial has been oversighted by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER), Energy Networks Australia (ENA) and Energy Consumers Australia (ECA). As we set out below, this process has had a material and beneficial impact on our plans and how we will deliver services to our customers going forward. To allow customers and their advocates an opportunity to have a say, we also released a draft proposal almost a year in advance of submitting our plans to the AER. We actively engaged on these plans through a series of ‘deep dive’ workshops and targeted surveys in response to questions raised. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 9 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary How our proposal responds to customer views and the significant benefits customers will receive as a result are outlined below. Customer Forum Standing (left to right): Greg Camm (Forum member), Tom Hallam (General Manager Regulation, AusNet Services), Deirdre Rose (Principal Economist, AusNet Services), Helen Bartley (Forum member), Charlotte Eddy (Manager Economic Regulation, AusNet Services). Seated (left to right): Tony Robinson (Forum Chair), Dianne Rule (Forum member), John Mumford (Forum member). How we are delivering improved affordability for customers Our customers are concerned about the affordability of electricity. Responding to this, electricity distribution charges are forecast to fall significantly. At the start of the new regulatory period, revenue per customer will fall by $110 or 12% from 2020 (calendar year) to 2022 (financial year), and then will only increase by inflation. This reflects proposed revenue which is $64 million or 2% less than the revenue we expect to earn in the five years from 2016 to 2020. Revenue per customer ($, Real $Jun 2021) Source: AusNet Services. Note: Jan to June 2021 is presented on an annualised basis. The revenue reduction is in part due to lower interest rates and a range of decisions made by the AER (including the 2018 Rate of Return Instrument, the regulatory tax review, and the 0.5% opex productivity adjustment for electricity distributors). These changes combined with lower bond rates has reduced forecast revenue for 2022-26 by around $420 million. However, the revenue reduction also reflects the substantial cost savings made by our business and agreements with the Customer Forum to moderate or absorb costs. We estimate total forecast expenditures for 2022-26 are around $490 million below what our regulatory allowances would have been if we had not made efficiency improvements in the current period. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 10 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary In addition, residential and small business customers will pay $30 less ($2021) on average for their annual metering bill and AusNet Services has abolished business hours remote disconnection and reconnection fees. This is one less irritant at a stressful time when our customers are moving house or business location and one of the many benefits now being delivered by smart meters. A typical small business customer can expect to save $62 on their annual bill, while a typical large commercial or industrial customer could expect to save anywhere between $1,120 to $8,889. This is complemented by a new initiative working with retailers to ensure our largest business customers are automatically placed on the cheapest network tariff appropriate to their usage. This has already saved some customers close to $14,500 off their annual bill. Finally, our critical peak tariff delivers substantial savings automatically to those business customers who can lower their demand on the electricity system at times of extreme demand. The proposal results in a falling value of the Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) per customer, reducing the cost burden on future customers. This is due to lower capital expenditure and the accelerated depreciation of assets that are either no longer in service or have inappropriately long lives currently assigned. RAB per customer ($, Real $Jun 2021) Source: AusNet Services. Note: Jan to June 2021 is presented on an annualised basis. These actions will help ensure that Victorians continue to enjoy the lowest electricity bills in Australia over the longer-term, while simultaneously helping manage cash flows for investors under a regulatory regime that provides for negative profits (NPAT) in the short-term. Despite these revenue cuts, AusNet Services will continue to maintain safe and reliable services and meet all of our regulatory obligations. In addition to maintaining the quality of these core services we have agreed with the Customer Forum to: • Improve customers’ experience of our services; • Invest prudently to unlock the benefits exports solar to all customers; and • Undertake modest innovation to support the energy system transformation that our customers want. Our business is also investing to meet our bushfire risk management obligations and to protect our customers and network from increasing cyber security threats. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 11 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary How we are delivering better experiences and services for customers AusNet Services has agreed a range of initiatives to improve customer experience outcomes and we are not waiting for our next regulatory period to commence. Action is already well underway and is delivering for our customers. This has included implementing an improved online solar connection application tool and dedicated staff to support large customers and communities. We are also committing to continue to improve outcomes for customers with actions between now and the end of the forthcoming regulatory period (in June 2026). To hold ourselves accountable, we will track progress on these commitments through an annual public report. Aside from modest investments in new information systems to improve our communications with customers, AusNet Services is not seeking more funding from customers to deliver these improved outcomes. We will do this by reprioritising existing budgets. Backing our commitment, we are also proposing a new customer satisfaction incentive scheme aimed at performance on four key customer interactions – communication and management around planned and unplanned outages, connections and complaints. Further detail in customer experience improvements being delivered to customers is provided below. How we propose to improve customer experience REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 12 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary How we propose to improve customer experience (cont.) How we are supporting the energy sector transition and unlocking solar exports for the benefit of all customers In the past, customers only purchased or ‘imported’ electricity from large scale generators that were remote from their homes, offices, factories and businesses. Now, a growing number of customers are also using solar panels to generate their own electricity, with surplus amounts of generation being ‘exported’ into the network. If managed well, these exports benefit all customers through lower pollution, less carbon emissions and lower electricity market prices as the exported solar displaces higher marginal cost electricity generators (such as coal and gas). Over 140,000 of our customers already have solar installations and we forecast that this number is forecast to be around 225,500 by 2026, or around a 60% increase. Also, with the size of solar systems getting larger, the solar energy produced is forecast to double in size. By 2030 it is expected close to half our customer base will have some combination of solar panels, batteries or electric vehicles. The map below shows that the level of solar penetration varies across our network. However, there are areas of our network with solar penetration greater than 27% (the red areas on the map), which is as high as areas in South Australia and Queensland. This transformation of the energy system is changing the way our network operates and the nature of the services we must provide, because electricity now flows from customers back into the network, as well as flowing to customers from the network. Solar generation, batteries, smart appliances, energy management systems and electric vehicles are putting the customer at the centre of the electricity supply industry. Our network must adapt to meet our customers’ changing needs and enable customers to export electricity to their neighbours. This increase in the size and quantity of solar is creating voltage management challenges on our network. Voltage rises, if not managed, can damage customers’ appliances (for solar and non- solar customers). High voltage can also cause solar systems to shut off. One way of managing this problem is to prevent customers from connecting solar to the network or exporting their solar energy onto the network. Neither of these solutions are acceptable to customers. Our proposals incorporates a way to allow more solar in a network at an acceptable cost. Customer research and engagement consistently indicates that customers want our business to invest to support the changing ways in which they wish to use our network, particularly to support solar exports. Our proposal seeks to do this in a prudent way, making smart use of technology and modest network upgrades, that do not impose high costs and forecasts both solar and non- solar customers will benefit through a reduction in the wholesale market price. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 13 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary Residential solar penetration in our network by postcode Note: The chart groups the penetration level into five equal parts (or quintiles). Source: AusNet Services. Supported by our customers and agreed with the Customer Forum, we are proposing to invest $43 million ($2021) to allow more solar exports onto our network and maintain the quality of supply to all our customers. This will fund voltage compliance expenditure, augmentation to allow additional exports where economic and dynamic management capability. The average bill impact is $0.60 per annum per residential customer and $5.83 per annum per business customer. This expenditure will deliver a range of benefits for customers: • Voltage compliance: addresses the adverse voltage impacts that would otherwise be experienced by 228,000 customers; • More customers will be able to install rooftop solar and export uninterrupted: the proposal is expected to support the exports of an additional 70,000 solar customers; • Lower wholesale electricity prices: Unlocking low cost solar generation will displace coal and gas generators and reduce wholesale costs for all customers; and • Cleaner environment: Greater utilisation of the population of rooftop solar will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. AusNet Services has also proposed a modest program of innovation expenditure of $7.5 million ($2021) to be oversighted by customer representatives which also focuses on energy transformation and better supporting the integration of rooftop solar and other forms of distributed energy resources (DER)1. The innovation projects will be additional to, and are not dependent on, the DER capex spend. The innovation expenditure level and proposed governance and knowledge sharing arrangements have been agreed with the Customer Forum. The innovation expenditure will be squarely focussed on maximising the benefits of the energy transition. It would add to the limited funding of projects under the Demand Management 1 As described by the Energy Security Board, DER are “resources located on the distribution system that generate, manage demand, or manage the network”. This can include rooftop solar, battery storage, electric vehicles and vehicle to grid services, solar hot water, other generators, smart appliances such as air conditioners or pool pumps, energy efficiency, heat pumps, energy management systems such as microgrid controller and standalone power systems (SAPS). Source: ESB DER Integration Workplan, October 2019. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 14 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary Incentive Allowance, for which AusNet Services’ projects have won prestigious industry awards2. The proposed expenditure will allow research and development to be undertaken into technologies where benefits to customers are expected to be longer term or to require further exploration. DER integration is complex and will evolve over time as more mature market arrangements develop for DER. DER network and market integration will ultimately involve a suite of solutions and technologies to provide efficient solutions for customers. The innovation program will contribute to finding and testing possible solutions. How we are delivering improved safety for customers In partnership with the Victorian Government, AusNet Services is currently installing new technology to reduce the risk of powerline-related bushfires. The technology, known as Rapid Earth Fault Current Limiter or REFCL, is being installed in selected high bushfire risk areas. The Victorian Government’s Powerline Bushfire Safety Taskforce expects REFCLs could further cut powerline-related fires in Victoria substantially. Currently nine of the 22 REFCLs to be installed by 2023 are operating and successfully reducing bushfire risk for customers. We will finish installing this technology by early 2023. Installation of REFCLs across our network and reduction in fire start since 2006 Source: AusNet Services. This program and other past investment in the safety of our network are having material benefits for our customers. Details of the 2021-22 to 2025-26 revenue proposal As noted above, AusNet Services’ plans deliver improved services for reduced revenue in the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regulatory period. The figure below shows our forecast of required real revenue over the current and forthcoming period (as well as the six month extension to our current regulatory period (from January to June 2021). Required revenue is forecast to be $3,186 million ($2021) for the 2022-26 period which is $64 million or 2% lower than actual expected revenue in the five years 2016 to 2020. 2 Including the 2019 Innovation Award from the Clean Energy Council for our Networks Renewed Project. The same award was won for the Mooroolbark Mini Grid trial in 2017. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 15 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary Total revenue requirement ($m, Real $Jun 2021) Source: AusNet Services. Note: Jan to June 2021 is presented on an annualised basis, The figure below shows the proposed changes in the cost elements compared to our current period revenue allowance. Changes in the revenue building blocks ($m, Real $Jun 2021) Source: AusNet Services. The reduction in the return on capital and the tax allowance reflect the changes made by our regulator and lower interest rates. As mentioned earlier, the regulatory depreciation reflects that we are fully depreciating assets which are either no longer in service or have inappropriately long lives assigned to them. The incentive payments are rewards that our business expects to earn under the regulatory framework for being more efficient in the current 2016-20 regulatory period. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 16 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary As explained further below, we are proposing lower net capex than in the current regulatory period. In agreement with the Customer Forum, we are also proposing a lower opex allowance that reflects a doubling of the AER’s 0.5% productivity adjustment to over 1%. Capital expenditure We are proposing total net capex (i.e. capex excluding customer contributions) of $1,478 million ($2021) over the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regulatory period. This is 21% lower than our expected net capex over the 2016-20 regulatory period. Net capex requirement ($m, Real $Jun 2021) Source: AusNet Services. Note: Jan to June 2021 is presented on an annualised basis, The scope of the Customer Forum’s negotiation on capex covered asset replacement expenditure (repex) and network augmentation (augex) major projects and Distributed Energy Resource (DER) augex, accounting for around 7% of total net capex. Our 2022-26 regulatory proposal builds on the outcomes we are achieving in the current regulatory period, where we are outperforming the AER’s expenditure targets while maintaining reliability for customers and delivering programs to improve community safety by reducing bushfire risk. Targeting safe and reliable energy provision to our customers is the basis of our 2022-26 regulatory proposal. We are achieving this by maintaining our ageing network and appropriately managing asset failure risk. This is forecast to require $543 million ($2021), which is 14% higher than the expected repex in the current regulatory period of $476 million ($2021).3 Recognising that affordability is the primary concern for most of our customers, we have agreed with the Customer Forum to delay some of our major repex projects. We have done this only where the increase in reliability risk is small. Our approach has resulted in significant savings for customers – a significant (27%) fall from our preliminary forecasts discussed with the Customer Forum and a 3% fall from our Draft Regulatory Proposal published in February 2019. We are therefore now proposing major project repex of $75.7 million ($2021). Our augmentation capex (augex) proposal – capital needed to expand network capacity, including that associated with DER – is forecast to be $92 million ($2021). This is over a third lower (39%) 3 This information is presented on a basis that allows like-for-like comparison following some changes in cost categorisation. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 17 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary than the augex we expect to incur in the current regulatory period and is largely driven by more limited peak demand growth in our network. Included in our augex proposal is the following expenditure agreed with the Customer Forum: • $8 million ($2021) for a major augmentation project to expand the capacity of the Clyde North zone substation; and • DER augex of $43 million ($2021). The Information and Communications Technology (ICT) proposal of $165 million (excluding advance metering ICT used by the distribution business) is 12% lower than the ICT capex expected in the current regulatory period.4 The ICT investment will provide the capability to manage and operate our network assets more efficiently and will help us deliver outcomes that our customers and the Customer Forum have told us they value in customer service improvements and supporting solar exports. Finally, the capex expenditure forecast includes completing the delivery of the REFCL bushfire safety program. Operating expenditure AusNet Services has listened to customers and worked with our Customer Forum to develop an operating expenditure proposal that balances our obligation to provide safe and reliable electricity supply with the affordability concerns of customers. The efforts to reduce costs, and the collaboration with our customers, results in a forecast of total opex of $1,222 million ($2021) over the 2022-26 (FY) regulatory period.5 This is 5% lower than our opex allowance in the current (2016-20) regulatory period (shown in the blue line). Total operating expenditure requirement ($m, Jun 2021) Source: AusNet Services. Note: Jan to June 2021 is presented on an annualised basis 4 The AMI ICT capex is forecast to be $16 million ($2021) over the 2022-26 period. 5 This forecast opex does not include debt raising costs, consistent with the basis we negotiated with the Customer Forum. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 18 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary We have brought our operating cost base down Over the last three years, AusNet Services has undertaken a ground-up cost efficiency program which is delivering lasting cost savings for customers. A combination of smarter work practices, new workforce contracts and a continual focus on cost management has delivered these savings. This is allowing us to control costs, even while our customer base and obligations are growing. We have agreed with the Customer Forum to offer double the ongoing cost savings being sought by the AER. Specifically, we have agreed to substantially outperform the AER’s productivity setting of 0.5% per annum in the forthcoming regulatory period. AusNet Services has agreed to self-fund the cost of some new business obligations and operational needs over the 2022-26 regulatory period amounting to $21 million and implying a productivity improvement of 1%. The self-funded costs include: • The forthcoming increase in the superannuation guarantee (from 1 July 2021). This is forecast to save customers $6.5 million over the 2022-26 regulatory period; • Increases in our bushfire insurance. This is forecast to save customers $7 million over the 2022-26 regulatory period; • A demand management solution at Cranbourne Terminal Station. This is forecast to save customers $1.5 million; • Compliance with new Environmental Protection Act obligations. This is forecast to save customers $1 million; and • The majority of necessary costs of transitioning to cloud-based IT systems. This is forecast to save customers over $5 million. Nonetheless, substantial new obligations, our growing customer base and more sophisticated use of data mean that some increases in our future opex are required The substantial new obligations that are being imposed on our business by governments and regulators in the next regulatory period relate to market settlement, cyber security and bushfire safety. Meeting these obligations (at an efficient cost) will add $14 million to our opex proposal. As well, our increasingly sophisticated use of our smart meter fleet is allowing us to run the network more efficiently, but to reflect this usage we have allocated a greater amount of the costs to distribution services, which has added $30 million to opex, but will reduce metering costs (and hence metering charges to customers) by the same amount. Even with new obligations and growth, our overall opex forecast is 5% below the approved allowance in our current five-year regulatory period. The Customer Forum has agreed the forecast represents value for money The Customer Forum considers that in the context of the proposed reduction of revenue per customer of $110 per annum,6 taken together with other expenditure savings, the opex proposal appears to represent overall value for money. Conclusion AusNet Services believes its regulatory proposal best serves the long-term interests of its customers. The proposal balances delivering on the immediate needs of the network, its customers and the community with a longer term vision for the network in the context of a transitioning energy system. 6 This reduction of $110 per annum is achieved across the entire regulatory proposal. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 19 / 69
AusNet Services Executive Summary The process we have been through to put our customers at the heart of our proposal is evident in the final outcome. We have agreed initiatives with the Customer Forum to improve customer experience outcomes and to address customers’ affordability concerns. As a result of our new regulatory approach involving the early publication of a draft proposal and the negotiation with the Customer Forum, significant elements of this Regulatory Proposal have already been subject to much greater scrutiny than would ordinarily be the case. In our view, the process has ensured that our expenditure and service plans comply with the Rules requirements and can be approved by the AER. The Customer Forum has agreed that the overall Proposal represents a value for money proposition that balances the interests of customers and investors. It nonetheless recognises that out of scope matters and many technical issues rightly remain subject to the scrutiny of the AER. AusNet Services has committed to honouring the outcomes of the negotiations with the Customer Forum, including the headline price cuts, throughout this 15-month review process. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 20 / 69
AusNet Services Introduction 1 Introduction This regulatory submission sets out AusNet Services’ proposal for its electricity distribution network for the next regulatory control period, which commences 1 July 2021 and runs through until 30 June 2026. 1.1 Structure of this Regulatory Proposal Under the National Electricity Law (NEL) and the National Electricity Rules (the Rules), the AER is responsible for the economic regulation of electricity distribution services. In accordance with the Rules, the AER conducts a periodic review to determine our revenue requirements and other matters relating to the provision of regulated electricity distribution services. For the previous electricity distribution price review, AusNet Services’ revenue was determined for the five calendar years from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020. The Victorian Government is proposing to extend the current regulatory period by a further six months to 30 June 2021. Accordingly, this document is our Regulatory Proposal for the period commencing on 1 July 2021 and ending on 30 June 2026 (the 2022-26 regulatory period). The proposal is accompanied and supported by: • An overview paper, which provides a plain-language summary and explanation of our Regulatory Proposal; • A tariff structure statement and an explanatory paper, which describe our proposed tariff structures and the rationale for our approach; • Completed templates and supporting information as required by the Rules and the AER’s Regulatory Information Notices (RIN); and • Appendices, supporting documents and models, which are cross-referenced in this document. These include: o a document that sets out proposed revenues for the extension to the current regulatory period from 1 January 2021 to 30 June 2021 (Appendix 1A); and o A document setting out related party arrangements (Appendix 1B). This regulatory proposal is structured in four parts: • Part I explains our ground-breaking approach to customer engagement involving negotiation with a Customer Forum. It also explains how this Regulatory Proposal takes account of the views of our customers including the feedback we received on our Draft Regulatory Proposal published in February 2019; • Part II outlines the significant agreements reached with the Customer Forum on initiatives to improve customer experience; • Part III focuses on Standard Control Services, which are the distribution network services that our customers require each day. This part of the proposal contains: an overview of our operating environment and network characteristics; demand and customer number forecasts; our expenditure plans; our approach to innovation; and our revenue requirements. We also set out the impact of our Regulatory Proposal on customers’ annual bills; and • Part IV explains our Alternative Control Services proposals, which are more customer specific services and include metering, public lighting and ancillary network services such as connection services. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 21 / 69
AusNet Services Introduction 1.2 Presentation of cost information The actual and forecast expenditure in this proposal reflects our cost allocation methodology, as approved by the AER, and is consistent with: • AusNet Services’ capitalisation policy, which remains unchanged from the current regulatory period; and • The application of the AER’s incentive schemes that encourage cost and service efficiencies over time. In terms of the financial data presented in this submission, it should be noted that: • All monetary values presented exclude GST; • Unless stated otherwise, monetary values are presented in June 2021 dollars (shown as $2021); • Where data is presented in nominal terms, an inflation forecast of 2.45 per cent per annum has been applied; and • Numbers in tables may not add up due to rounding. In accordance with the Rules, we also confirm that our expenditure forecasts do not contain any costs arising from transactions with related parties. 1.3 Supporting documentation AusNet Services’ regulatory proposal has been prepared with reference to the following documents: • Appendix 1A – Cost Allocation Methodology; • Appendix 1B – Service Classification Proposal; • Appendix 1C - Extension period revenues (1 January 2021 - 30 June 2021); and • Appendix 1D - Related Party Arrangements. Further supporting material, which is specific to individual aspects of the proposal, are listed in the relevant sections of the proposal document. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 22 / 69
AusNet Services Part I - Customer Engagement, Findings and Feedback Part I – Customer Engagement, Findings and Feedback REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 23 / 69
AusNet Services Part I - Customer Engagement, Findings and Feedback Key Points The key points in Part I are: • To build a truly customer-focused, modern energy business, we have: o Committed considerable additional resources to undertake more engagement and research that has broadened and deepened our understanding of customers’ needs and expectations; o Challenged our business to reflect identified customer needs and expectations in our future strategies and plans in negotiation with a Customer Forum. This has given customers more powerful representation and input to our plans; and o Issued a Draft Proposal to get direct feedback before finalising our plans and consulted on the Draft Proposal in a series of ‘deep dive’ workshops. • AusNet Services’ engagement approach and negotiation with the Customer Forum is innovative and an Australian first. We are confident that this process has delivered better outcomes for our customers. • Sharing our draft plans with stakeholders and the AER so early in the process and listening to their feedback in developing this formal submission means that the AER will be reviewing a submission that has already had the benefit of extensive customer input and scrutiny. • This has resulted in a Regulatory Proposal which is tailored to delivering improved outcomes for our customers in accordance with their preferences. Part I structure Part I is structured as follows: • Chapter 2 explains the role and objectives of the Customer Forum and the scope of the negotiations that have taken place with the Customer Forum during the development of this Regulatory Proposal. • Chapter 3 sets out our extensive customer research and engagement process undertaken to gain insights into our customers’ views and expectations. • Chapter 4 summarises what we have heard from customers on their views and expectations and how we are responding in this proposal, as agreed with the Customer Forum. This chapter concludes Part I by explaining why we are confident that this Regulatory Proposal satisfies the Rules requirements and should be approved by the AER. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 24 / 69
AusNet Services Customer Forum 2 Customer Forum 2.1 Customer Forum trial In an Australian first, AusNet Services has undertaken a trial to negotiate elements of our proposal with an independent Customer Forum. We established the Customer Forum in March 2018 and have worked with the Forum intensively since then. The Forum is led by a former Consumer Affairs Minister for Victoria, The Hon. Tony Robinson. The trial is testing the New Reg model developed by the Australian Energy Regulator (AER), Energy Consumers Australia (ECA), and Energy Networks Australia (ENA) to better incorporate consumer preferences into regulatory decisions. AusNet Services is pleased to be the first Australian utility trialling the NewReg process. The most significant departure from traditional practice is that the Customer Forum negotiates aspects of the regulatory proposal in advance of lodgement with the AER. The Customer Forum researches consumer preferences and has direct engagement with consumers and brings this perspective to the negotiation process. This ensures the proposal is built directly on customer feedback and preferences. The trial has required an unprecedented level of transparency in the development of our plans to enable the Customer Forum to have meaningful input on our approach as well as the proposed outcomes. It also means that in practice many aspects of this proposal have already received significant customer scrutiny. The Customer Forum consists of a Chairperson and four members. The Customer Forum members were chosen in an independent and rigorous process, including through consultation with Energy Consumers Australia and the AER. The members were selected for their diverse and complementary skills and experience; their ability to credibly represent the perspectives of customers; their understanding of consumer issues; and their analytical ability. The independence and legitimacy of the Customer Forum members was of primary importance in the selection process. Members were required to be fully independent of AusNet Services and capable of credibly representing the perspective of the breadth of AusNet Services’ customers. Members of the Customer Forum could not: • Be currently employed or engaged by AusNet Services or the Australian Energy Regulator; • Have criminal convictions; • Have been disqualified from acting as a director; or • Have undertaken activities deemed to have had major adverse consequences for consumers. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 25 / 69
AusNet Services Customer Forum The skills sets sought as part of the recruitment process are shown below. Capabilities Specific skills/qualifications Numeracy (and ability to explain to others) Credibility to represent the customer Economics perspective (including vulnerable Law (commercial/consumer) customers) Engineering Negotiation Consumer rights advocacy Communication Market research Analytical skills Communications Flexibility and willingness to develop new skills Agriculture/business Chairing skills (for Chairperson) The Customer Forum members are: Tony Robinson (Chair): Experienced consumer advocate and former Victorian Minister for Consumer Affairs. Helen Bartley: Experienced market and social researcher with specific experience in customer engagement processes for utilities. John Mumford: Experienced consumer advocate and financial counsellor. John and his family run a small beef cattle and hazelnut farm in South Gippsland and is a customer of AusNet Services. Greg Camm: Experienced financial sector executive and former Director of Yarra Valley Water, which pioneered the Citizens Jury process in the water sector. Dianne Rule: Broad experience across education, publishing, politics and community projects. Left to right: Dianne Rule (Forum member), Greg Camm (Forum member), Tom Hallam (General Manager Regulation, AusNet Services), Tony Robinson (Forum Chair), Helen Bartley (Forum member), John Mumford (Forum member). The Customer Forum is empowered to negotiate and agree elements of our Regulatory Proposal. To assist the Customer Forum, there is scope for the Forum toinitiate its own research. The Customer Forum process has been open for scrutiny with relevant information published on our website including the information presented to the Forum and an overview of the Forum’s customer and stakeholder engagement activities. Many stakeholders have had the opportunity to observe and engage with the Customer Forum including the AER, the Victorian Department of REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 26 / 69
AusNet Services Customer Forum Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP), the AER’s Consumer Challenge Panel, AusNet Services’ Customer Consultative Committee, and a variety of customer advocates. 2.2 Role and objectives of the Customer Forum In June 2018, the Customer Forum, AusNet Services and the AER finalised the Memorandum of Understanding, which set out the respective roles and expectations of the parties, and formalised the Customer Forum’s governance arrangements.7 The Memorandum of Understanding set out the scope of negotiations between the Customer Forum and AusNet Services and how this must work within the National Electricity Law and Rules. It also established the following objectives for the Customer Forum: • To understand and represent to AusNet Services the perspectives and preferences of AusNet Services’ customers; • To understand AusNet Services’ business, including the company’s revenue requirements; • To identify elements of the Regulatory Proposal which the Customer Forum agrees or does not agree are in the long-term interest of AusNet Services’ customers; • To negotiate with AusNet Services with a view to securing, as far as possible, a Regulatory Proposal in the long-term interest of AusNet Services’ customers; • To provide input into AusNet Services’ customer research program; • To assist in preparing the engagement reports; and • To understand and operate within the constraints of the regulatory framework established by the National Electricity Law, the National Electricity Rules and the applicable regulatory instruments developed by the AER. With these objectives in mind, the Customer Forum has analysed our plans and challenged our thinking in several important areas. In negotiating with us, the Customer Forum has also taken into account the findings from available customer research and its own direct engagement with our business and customers. In particular, the Customer Forum obtained its own additional evidence by8: • Requesting additional information, including complaints data from AusNet Services, the AER and other agencies, such as the Essential Services Commission and the Energy and Water Ombudsman Victoria, to clarify policy and regulatory matters. • Undertaking independent field visits throughout AusNet Services’ region to directly gather evidence of issues affecting customers, and interviewing customers and their representatives such as Members of Parliament and local council officers. The Customer Forum developed case studies from some of these visits. • Initiating and contributing to the design and targeting of additional market research following identification of key knowledge gaps, particularly in relation to business customers. • Holding a series of meetings with customer advocates and stakeholders. 7 A revised MOU was published in August 2019 to extend the length of the trial period given the six month delay to the submission of the Victorian electricity distributors’ regulatory proposal. The six month delay was due to the Victorian Government change to the regulatory periods. 8 Customer Forum, Interim Engagement Report, 6 February 2019, page 10. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 27 / 69
AusNet Services Customer Forum • Observing focus groups run in five locations within AusNet Services’ region and all the ‘deep dive’ workshops on aspects of our Draft Regulatory Proposal. This additional evidence assisted the Customer Forum in evaluating information provided by AusNet Services and others. 2.3 AER role in the Customer Forum trial As well as having a role in establishing and overseeing the Customer Forum trial, the AER provided the Forum with the technical and economic support it required to be an effective counterparty to AusNet Services during the negotiation process. The role of AER staff in assisting the Forum includes: • Providing information and advice to the Forum, such as by: o Identifying and raising issues with the Forum and AusNet Services in Forum meetings; and o Responding to questions from the Forum. • Agreeing which issues are within the scope of negotiations between the Forum and AusNet Services and advising on the boundaries of the negotiation. It is important to note that the AER is not a party to the negotiations. The negotiation process is between AusNet Services and the Customer Forum. The AER has not ‘pre-approved’ any matters in this proposal, prior to its formal submission to the AER. 2.4 Scope of negotiations AusNet Services, the Customer Forum and the AER agreed on which parts of our proposed distribution network business plans would be subject to negotiation. We recognised that not every aspect of our plans can be negotiated. Some aspects of our plans are set by regulatory bodies and cannot be changed, such as what we must do to reduce the risk of bushfires. The figure below shows the scope of negotiation with the Customer Forum. Figure 2-1: Scope of customer forum negotiations Note: *AER assisting Customer Forum by providing information and independent advice. †Not in scope of the AER’s assistance to the Customer Forum. REGULATORY PROPOSAL 2022-26 31 JANUARY 2020 28 / 69
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