Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook - Q3 2020 - Aberdeen Standard ...
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For professional investors only, in Switzerland for Qualified investors only – not for use by retail investors or advisers. Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook Q3 2020
02 Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook “The global contraction triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has been unprecedented, but we think the recovery has already begun.” Economic outlook Executive summary • Unprecedented shock; strong but partial rebound. The global • The global contraction triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has contraction triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has been been unprecedented, but we think the recovery has already unprecedented, but we think the recovery has already begun. begun. The reverse ‘J’ scenario remains our economic base Our colleagues at Aberdeen Standard Investments Research case – i.e. a deep recession with a drawn out recovery and Institute (ASIRI) now expect a peak-to-trough global contraction permanent loss in output. That said, we now see the risks around our base case as being balanced (versus skewed to the of 13% over the first half of 2020, before a rapid but partial downside previously). rebound in the second half of the year. Over the course of 2020 as a whole, we now forecast an average contraction of 7.4% • All investment styles for non-listed real estate in Asia-Pacific (from -9.2% previously) for the global economy. This still leaves (APAC) registered negative returns during the first quarter of the global economy some way below where it was headed on its 2020. This represents the first time returns have been negative pre-crisis growth trend (Chart 1). We expect a 7.8% increase in since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We expect total returns global gross domestic product (GDP) next year (from +9.3% to remain under pressure in the near term. We forecast an previously), before a moderation into 2022 (+4.1%, from +5.2% average total return of just -0.3% per annum (p.a.) for the previously). Among the major economies in APAC, ASIRI has region over the next three years and expect greater divergence in performance among sectors. We expect raised the 2020-21 GDP forecasts for Japan (+0.4 percentage outperformance in industrial properties and multifamily rental points (%pt) and +0.1%pt, respectively), but kept the forecasts for apartments in Tokyo to be balanced by underperformance in India unchanged. In China, we raised the 2020 GDP forecast by the retail sector. On a risk-adjusted basis, we believe the real 2.3%pt, but cut the 2021 and 2022 forecasts by 1.8%pt and estate market in Japan remains relatively attractive 0.8%pt, respectively. within APAC. • Risks around our base case are now balanced. The reverse ‘J’ • Despite the unprecedented contraction in economic activity, scenario remains the economic base case for our colleagues at pricing for core real estate has remained surprisingly firm. ASIRI – i.e. a deep recession with a drawn-out recovery and This is especially the case for office properties in Seoul and permanent loss in output. That being said, we now see the risks industrial properties, in general. For investors who are able to around our base case as being balanced (versus skewed to the venture out slightly on the risk spectrum, we think a core-plus downside, previously). We had originally thought that a or a light value-added strategy may offer a better risk-reward longer-lived economic shock with a ragged ‘W’-shaped recovery, proposition (there is a higher likelihood of securing softer as second waves emerge and lockdowns are re-imposed, was a entry prices for assets with more leasing risks), compared with greater risk than a sharp ‘U’-shaped recovery. We still think that a a core strategy. That said, we do not rule out the possibility of ‘W’-shaped recovery is a key downside risk and we are concerned more core opportunities surfacing over the next 12 months – about virus hotspots in Latin America, and parts of the US and particularly if new waves of infection were to force extreme China. Our most recent judgement, however, is that better news lockdowns to be re-imposed, causing greater volatility in the on the research and production of an international vaccine have economy and financial markets. increased the probability of a mass vaccine being available • We believe important differences between cities need to be earlier than the 12-18 months incorporated in our base case. considered when assessing the long-term impact of flexible Consequently, we have attached a higher probability to upside working arrangements on offices. For instance, we think the risks in our base case scenario. adoption of flexible work arrangements could be slower in • China: industrial production back to pre-Covid level, but retail Japan and the impact on office demand may be more limited compared with other markets. As such, we think there could sales and real fixed asset investments (FAI) lag. Industrial be opportunities for more discerning investors to pick up production in China climbed 1.5% month-on-month (m-m) in good-quality assets in these markets if investor sentiment for May – slower than the 2.2%m-m growth in April and lower than offices were to become overly bearish. consensus forecast (+4.4% year-on-year (y-y), versus consensus +5% y-y). On the other hand, retail sales gained 5.4% m-m in May (from +11% m-m in April) and FAI increased 4%m-m during the month (from +7% m-m in April). The official data suggests industrial production has now largely caught up with its pre-coronavirus trend, but retail sales and FAI are still around 8% lower than what they were back in January. Importantly, the pace of recovery appears to have moderated. Liquidity conditions have loosened significantly since February. Total social financing gained 12.5% y-y to RMB3.2 trillion in May, which represents a slight acceleration from the 12% y-y pace in April. It also beat consensus expectations of RMB3.1 trillion. Credit growth has been strong for the past three months, but there have been reports that not all credit is going to support business activities. For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook 03 While Beijing remains concerned about the risks building in months have demonstrated that there are many job functions China’s financial system, risks of further Covid-19 outbreaks that can be satisfactorily performed away from the office. could still motivate further loosening of its monetary Westpac, for instance, is reportedly reconsidering the need for policy stance. thousands of technology staff to be in its major city offices. • Japan: domestic resilience. The fall in Japan’s machinery orders It has witnessed productivity increase among its developers and accelerated to -12% m-m in April (from -0.4% m-m in March) but major projects have been delivered successfully by home-based this was mostly led by external machinery orders (-21.6% m-m, teams during the lockdown in Australia. The troubles at WeWork from -1.3% m-m in March). In terms of the labour market, have cast doubt over the business model of flexible workspace nominal cash wages fell by 0.6% y-y in April (from +0.1% y-y in operators, especially since the health crisis is likely to reverse the March), with the drop in overtime payments being the biggest trend of higher office density. Nonetheless, we think it is likely drag on income. The unemployment rate was hardly changed at that more companies will work with flexible workspace 2.6% in April (versus 2.5% in March). Despite the crisis, ASIRI operators over the longer term to cater for increasingly volatile expects the labour market in Japan to remain relatively tight, spatial needs and to reduce their fixed office with the unemployment rate likely to peak at just 3.4% by the lease commitments. middle of the year. Japan has beefed up the Employment • …while the near-term outlook is mixed. We forecast the Adjustment Subsidy Program it has been running since the average prime grade A office rent in APAC to decline 2.1% per 1970s, expanding eligibility and increasing the benefits paid to annum (p.a.) over the next three years (from +1.8% p.a. in the last furloughed workers. This should help dampen the three years; Chart 2). Among the key APAC office markets, we are unemployment cycle. On the flipside, we think there is potential more positive about offices in Singapore and Tokyo, while most for wage deflation to return. It appears our view is underscored cautious in Hong Kong. We forecast prime grade A office rents in by the latest labour market data. Singapore to rise 1.3% p.a. over the next three years (from +9.5% • Australia: the hard work may have just begun. It appears p.a. in the last three). The Singapore office market entered the Australia is once again having a relatively good crisis, at least in crisis with fairly robust fundamentals, in our view. The prime terms of the impact of the virus itself, where local transmission grade A vacancy rate was 4.1% at the end of 2019 (versus an has almost ended. The federal government and the central bank average of 6.5% in the past 10 years) and new supply scheduled are also doing their part, with the former launching a historically for completion in 2020-22 represents just 8% of the end-2019 large support program and the latter launching quantitative stock (versus an average of 9.3% in the past 10 years). easing (QE). However, our colleagues at ASIRI believe that the Importantly, the bulk of the new completions in 2020 has been hard work has only just begun, with the over-levered household committed. We expect the withdrawal of stock for sector likely to remain a drag on growth for many years to come. redevelopment under the central business district (CBD) incentive scheme and the potential relocation of some firms Chart 1: Global GDP (level) forecast, indexed to 100 in the fourth currently in Hong Kong to provide additional support for the quarter of 2019 market. A similar case can be made for the Tokyo office market. 110 The prime grade A vacancy rate was just 0.6% at the end of 2019 and new supply in 2020-22 represents just 10.4% of end-2019 105 stock (with the bulk of the 2020 new supply already committed). We forecast prime Grade A office rents in Tokyo to be stable 100 (+0.1% p.a.) over the next three years (from +3.5% p.a. in the past three). 95 • APAC retail: structural challenges exacerbated by Covid-19. Among the key property sectors, retail properties (along with 90 hotels) have been the hardest hit by the Covid-19 crisis. Policy makers have reacted quickly with temporary measures aimed at 85 helping retailers tide over the crisis. In Singapore, for instance, 3Q21 1Q21 4Q21 2Q21 3Q22 1Q22 4Q22 2Q22 3Q20 4Q20 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 rent relief equivalent to four months of rent (evenly shared Global Trend between the government and landlord) is given to small and Source: Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute; June 2020. medium retailers that have suffered a fall in revenue of at least 35% on account of the crisis. The temporary relief is unable to Real estate occupier trends address the structural challenges faced by brick-and-mortar • APAC offices: flexibility will be key focus in the longer term… retail, though, many of which have been exacerbated by the We believe the Covid-19 crisis has accelerated trends that were crisis. According to PayPal Australia, customer sign-ups tripled already underway prior to the pandemic. Flexibility is the key pre-pandemic levels to almost a third of the Australian focus in terms of working arrangements and workspace population during April. Importantly, the surge in new users in solutions. In terms of flexible work arrangements, the last three April included a 65% y-y jump in Australians aged 50 and above. Slower consumption, an accelerated loss of market share from For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
04 Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook “We expect keen investor interest to anchor lower yields, despite the softer rental outlook in the near term.” offline shopping to online, and thinning retailer margins Chart 2: Net rental change (% y-y) continue to be the three key headwinds faced by retail properties. We forecast the average prime retail rent in APAC to 25 fall by 6.3% p.a. over the next three years (from -1.1% p.a. in the 20 past three years). 15 10 • APAC industrial: long-term secular trends remain most 5 favourable. It appears the operational performance of industrial 0 properties has held up relatively well during this crisis. For example, rent collection for industrial properties in Australia -5 during the month of May was 75%, on average. This compares -10 with 67% across all property sectors, based on data from -15 Re-Leased. We expect the secular trends accelerated by the -20 3Q11 1Q11 3Q15 3Q13 3Q12 1Q15 3Q16 1Q17 3Q18 1Q13 1Q12 1Q16 1Q18 3Q19 3Q17 3Q10 1Q19 1Q20 1Q10 3Q14 1Q14 pandemic to underpin occupier demand over the longer term. These include an acceleration in migration from offline to online APAC offices APAC retail APAC industrials shopping, as well as potential changes in supply chain Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aberdeen Standard Investments, June 2020. management (on-shoring and re-shoring of manufacturing capabilities, higher-than-usual inventories). While the long-term Investment trends secular trends remain favourable for the sector, we expect some • Transaction values: investment activity during the first half of tenants to face solvency issues and for leasing demand to be 2020 is on track to fall by 45% y-y. The latest data from Real more cautious in the near term. We forecast the average prime Capital Analytics (RCA) suggests the total transaction value of industrial rent in APAC to fall by 0.8% p.a. over the next three investment properties in APAC (excluding development sites) is years (from +1.5% p.a. in the last three). Among the key markets on track to register a 50% y-y decline in the second quarter of in APAC, we are relatively positive on logistics properties in 2020, which would represent a bigger y-y fall compared with the 41.6% in the first quarter of 2020. This is not a surprise, in our China’s tier-one cities, as well as the primary Australian cities of view, considering mobility restrictions in many markets were Sydney and Melbourne. We are particularly interested in significantly tightened only from late-March/early-April. This last-mile logistics in urban locations. would take the total tally for the first six months in 2020 to about • Tokyo multifamily rental apartments: tight labour market to USD46 billion, or 45% lower than during the same period last remain a key support for demand. Covid-19 has seemingly had year. This would also represent the lowest level of investment a limited impact on the multifamily rental apartment market activity in APAC during the first half of a year since 2010 (but still within the 23 wards of Tokyo. According to the latest data from significantly better than the market in the first half of 2009 Kantei, market rents for rental apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards during the GFC – Chart 3). In terms of geographical markets, gained an average of 5.6% y-y in April and May, despite the South Korea was the best performer in the first half of 2020 pandemic. This follows an average 6.4% y-y and a 4.3% y-y (-20.4% y-y), while Singapore (-89.5% y-y) and Hong Kong (-85.5% increase in the first quarters of 2020 and 2019, respectively. y-y) were the worst. By sectors, residential properties were the The market is concerned that potential labour market weakness most actively transacted in the first half of 2020 (-5.8% y-y), while in Japan could negatively impact demand for rental apartments retail properties had the biggest decline in activity (-62.8% y-y). in Tokyo. We expect market rental growth to slow, but we think • South Korea: record office prices achieved despite Covid-19. investors should not be overly pessimistic. Our view is that the Travel restrictions appear to have turned the focus of domestic unemployment rate in Japan is likely to remain relatively low, capital in South Korea back home. Domestic institutional and potentially peaking at just 3.4% by the middle of the year. private investors accounted for 62% (versus an average of 55% in While wage deflation could return, we note that this has the past 10 years) and 24% (versus an average of 18% in the past historically been a lesser driver of demand compared with the 10 years) of acquisitions, respectively, during the first half of unemployment rate. For instance, market rents for rental 2020. Consequently, record prices have been set, especially in apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards have climbed 1.9% p.a. over the the office market. Young City in Yeongdeungpo-gu, for instance, past 10 years, while the overall vacancy rate has steadily declined has been sold at a yield of just 4.4%, which is reportedly the from 7% to 2.2% over the same period. This coincided with a lowest achieved for a decentralised office asset in Seoul. Also, the Hyundai Marine and Fire Insurance Building has reportedly consistent fall in the unemployment rate to just 2.5% as of April secured a record price of KRW34 million per pyung (3.3 per (versus 5.1% 10 years ago). Nominal wages in Japan, on other square metre (sqm)) in Gangnam, which represents a premium hand, have remained largely static throughout this period of 11.5% above the previous record of KRW30.5 million set by (average +0.2% p.a.) with occasional wage deflation. We forecast Samsung C&T Building in the third quarter of 2018. While we are the average market rent for Tokyo’s rental apartments to gain cautious about the near-term outlook for office rents in Seoul 1.6% p.a. over the next three years (from +3.6% p.a. in the (-1.6% p.a. over the next three years, versus. +0.3% p.a. in the last three). past three), we expect the above-average yield gap of 2.7%pt (versus the average 2.5%pt for APAC offices) to remain relatively attractive to investors. 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Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook 05 • Industrial properties: keen investor interest to anchor lower High Yield (HY) Index was 2.09% and 8.16%, respectively. yields. Beside residential properties, investment activity in While the IG and HY OAS are still 89 basis points (bps) and 324 industrial properties has also held up relatively well year to date bps higher than their respective levels at the beginning of the (-10.6% y-y in the first half of 2020). This is not surprising given year, they have tightened by 57 bps and 325 bps, respectively, the long-term secular trends that are favourable for the sector. from end-March levels when market sentiment was at its worst. One of the closely watched transactions in APAC during the second quarter of 2020, for instance, was the sale-and-leaseback Chart 3: Transaction values for investment properties in APAC deal that involved four Aldi distribution warehouses in Australia. (excluding development sites; USD million) The portfolio was first put up for sale in February, with an 100000 indicative price of AUD700 million, which reportedly translated into an initial yield of just 4.3-4.4%. The sale attracted interest 80000 from several institutional investors and, while the eventual winning bid is 7.4% below the initial indicative price (AUD648 60000 million), it remains a robust price considering the pandemic. Also, new capital is being raised to be deployed into the 40000 Australian logistics property sector. Arrow Capital Partners, for instance, is reportedly creating a new AUD1 billion fund with 20000 Cerberus Capital Management to invest in logistics and industrial properties in Australia. This follows the launch of another AUD1 0 billion fund by ESR Cayman in late-March, which also targets the 1H11 1H08 1H13 1H09 1H15 1H12 1H19 1H07 1H16 1H17 1H18 1H10 1H20* 1H14 sector. We expect keen investor interest to anchor lower yields, despite the softer rental outlook in the near term. Japan China Australia S Korea HK Singapore India Others * Preliminary estimate • Listed equity fund-raising: Australian real estate investment Source: Real Capital Analytics, Aberdeen Standard Investments; June 2020 trusts (REITs) recapitalised balance sheets after a recovery in share prices. On average, the share prices of listed real estate Performance and risk outlook investment trusts (REITs) in APAC have gained 10.8% since the • Non-listed real estate: first negative returns since GFC. lows at the end of March. Accordingly, the average price-to-book The Asian Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate (P/B) multiple has rerated to 1.1x (from just under 1x as at the Vehicles (ANREV) published its quarterly index for the first end of March). Managers of listed REITs have therefore quarter of 2020 on 17 June and the all-funds index returned capitalised on this window of opportunity to bolster balance -1.36% in the first quarter of 2020 (from +2.52% in the fourth sheets by raising fresh equity from investors, especially in quarter of 2019). This is the first time since the GFC that returns Australia. The amount of new equity raised by Australian REITs have been negative. All styles registered negative returns during (A-REITs) to date in the second quarter of 2020 is just under the quarter: core funds -0.93% (from +2.03% in the fourth USD1.8 billion, compared with only USD240.6 million in the first quarter of 2019), value-added funds -2.83% (from +6.59% in the quarter of 2020. The bulk of the new equity raised during the fourth quarter of 2019), and opportunistic funds -4.35% (from second quarter of this year was represented by the AUD1.4 +1.47% in the fourth quarter of 2019). The negative core return billion raised by the retail landlord Vicinity Centres in early June, was principally driven by lower capital values (-1.69% in the first following preliminary valuations that pointed to a loss of 11-13% quarter of 2020, from +1.02% in the previous quarter; Chart 4), in portfolio value. A similar write-down took place earlier in April although the income return also narrowed to just 0.76% during for retail properties held by the GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre the quarter (from 1.01% in the fourth quarter of 2019). Fund (-11%). We expect the structural challenges facing retail Japan-focused funds are the only ones that registered a positive properties in Australia to translate into further downside in return during the quarter (+0.65%, versus +9.5% the capital values in the near term (-9.7% p.a. over the next three quarter before). years, from +2% p.a. in the past three). • Listed real estate: performance since February aligned to • Debt funding: credit conditions have improved since the end of fundamentals. Based on the share prices of the major listed March. In terms of bank financing to real estate, outstanding REITs by sector in APAC as at 15 June, share prices of hotel REITs bank loans to the real estate sector in Japan gained 3.2% y-y to have fallen the most (-23.3%) since the end of February before JPY82.5 trillion as at the end of March, according to recent data the coronavirus-triggered market correction. This is followed by from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Importantly, new loans to retail REITs (-16.5%) and office REITs (-14.8%). On the other hand, corporate real estate entities increased 2.1% y-y to JPY2.8 trillion industrial REITs (+3.7%) and residential REITs listed in Japan in the first quarter of 2020, which represents the highest level (-0.9%) have seen relatively less drawdown. The performance is since the second quarter of 2009. It appears banks are still keen more or less aligned with the anticipated impact from the on lending to the real estate sector in Japan, despite the BOJ’s Covid-19 crisis on the fundamentals of the respective sectors. concern over the higher real estate loans to GDP ratio. Liquidity conditions have also loosened in the public debt market. As at the 15 June, the option-adjusted spread (OAS) of the Bloomberg Barclays Asia USD Investment Grade (IG) Bond Index and the For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
06 Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook “Concerns over the long-term prospects of offices may create opportunities in selected markets.” • Total returns to remain under pressure in the near term. • …but that does not rule out potential core opportunities in the We expect total returns for non-listed real estate in APAC to next 12 months. After all, it has been just three months since the remain under pressure in the near term. We forecast an average global pandemic took a turn for the worse in late-March. Real total return of -0.3% p.a. for the region over the next three years estate capital values in APAC have historically lagged the stock (versus +8% p.a. in the past three) and we expect greater market by nine months, on average. If new waves of infection divergence in performance among the sectors. We expect were to force extreme lockdowns to be re-imposed, this would outperformance in industrial properties (+6.5% p.a.) and cause greater volatility in the economy and the financial markets. multifamily rental apartments in Tokyo (+6% p.a.) to be balanced by underperformance in the retail sector (-6.5% p.a.). On a • Concerns over the long-term prospects of offices may create risk-adjusted basis, we believe the real estate market in Japan opportunities in selected markets. The last three months have remains relatively attractive within the APAC context (we demonstrated that there are many job functions that can be estimate total returns over the next three years of +2% p.a.). satisfactorily performed away from the office. Given the expectation that the crisis will accelerate the adoption of flexible • Macro uncertainties remain the biggest risks. The uncertainties work arrangements by companies, investors are therefore in the macro environment continue to pose the biggest risks to concerned over the long-term demand outlook for office space. our base case forecasts. This is especially if extreme lockdowns We think there are important differences between cities that were to be re-imposed across multiple major markets, causing greater economic and financial volatility amid persistently need to be considered in assessing the long-term impact of depressed activity. Potential policy mistakes, coupled with a flexible work arrangements on offices. For instance, we think the greater viral persistency than currently envisaged, could result in adoption could be slower in Japan (60% of its workforce still the speed of recovery being slower than what we currently reported for work at the office during the state of emergency) expect in our base case. Also, a re-escalation in tensions and the demand for office space there may be less affected between the US and China, and other geopolitical risks, is likely compared with other markets. As such, there could be to complicate the macro picture for the APAC markets. opportunities for more discerning investors to pick up good-quality assets in markets, such as Japan, if investor Chart 4: Composition of core returns (%) sentiment for offices were to become more bearish. 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 3Q11 1Q11 1Q13 1Q12 3Q15 3Q12 3Q13 3Q09 1Q15 1Q19 1Q18 3Q19 3Q08 1Q09 1Q10 3Q17 3Q18 1Q07 3Q10 1Q16 1Q17 1Q08 3Q16 1Q20 3Q07 3Q14 1Q14 Capital return (%) Income return (%) Source: ANREV, Aberdeen Standard Investments; June 2020. Investment themes • Core pricing has remained surprisingly firm… This is especially the case for office properties in Seoul (where record prices have been achieved in Gangnam) and industrial properties, in general. We expect investors to increasingly narrow their focus on a few selected sectors, such as logistics, multifamily rental apartments in Japan’s winning cities like Tokyo and Osaka, and core offices in selected gateway cities. The weight of capital is likely to keep property yields low for these sectors, despite the poorer near-term rental outlook. We think it is more likely for investors to secure softer entry prices for assets that come with higher leasing and management risks. For investors who are able to venture out slightly on the risk spectrum, we think a core-plus or a light value-added strategy may offer a better risk-reward proposition compared with a core strategy for now. For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
Min Chow, Sai Lucas Tan Head of Property Senior Analyst Research, APAC APAC Research– Research – Real Estate Real Estate The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your investor may get back less than the amount invested. Real estate is a relatively illiquid asset class, the valuation of which is a matter of opinion. There is no recognised market for real estate and there can be delays in realising the value of real estate assets. Important information For professional investors only, in Switzerland for Qualified investors only – not for use by retail investors or advisers. Contact Us To find out more, please speak to your usual contact or visit our website aberdeenstandard.com. Other important information This document is strictly for information purposes and should not be considered as an offer, investment recommendation or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein. This document does not constitute investment research. 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