Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook - Q3 2020 - Aberdeen Standard ...

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Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook - Q3 2020 - Aberdeen Standard ...
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Asia Pacific Real Estate
Market Outlook
Q3 2020
02          Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook

“The global contraction triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has been
  unprecedented, but we think the recovery has already begun.”

                                                                       Economic outlook
 Executive summary
                                                                       • Unprecedented shock; strong but partial rebound. The global
 • The global contraction triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has
                                                                         contraction triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has been
   been unprecedented, but we think the recovery has already
                                                                         unprecedented, but we think the recovery has already begun.
   begun. The reverse ‘J’ scenario remains our economic base
                                                                         Our colleagues at Aberdeen Standard Investments Research
   case – i.e. a deep recession with a drawn out recovery and
                                                                         Institute (ASIRI) now expect a peak-to-trough global contraction
   permanent loss in output. That said, we now see the risks
   around our base case as being balanced (versus skewed to the          of 13% over the first half of 2020, before a rapid but partial
   downside previously).                                                 rebound in the second half of the year. Over the course of 2020
                                                                         as a whole, we now forecast an average contraction of 7.4%
 • All investment styles for non-listed real estate in Asia-Pacific
                                                                         (from -9.2% previously) for the global economy. This still leaves
   (APAC) registered negative returns during the first quarter of
                                                                         the global economy some way below where it was headed on its
   2020. This represents the first time returns have been negative
                                                                         pre-crisis growth trend (Chart 1). We expect a 7.8% increase in
   since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We expect total returns
                                                                         global gross domestic product (GDP) next year (from +9.3%
   to remain under pressure in the near term. We forecast an
                                                                         previously), before a moderation into 2022 (+4.1%, from +5.2%
   average total return of just -0.3% per annum (p.a.) for the
                                                                         previously). Among the major economies in APAC, ASIRI has
   region over the next three years and expect greater
   divergence in performance among sectors. We expect                    raised the 2020-21 GDP forecasts for Japan (+0.4 percentage
   outperformance in industrial properties and multifamily rental        points (%pt) and +0.1%pt, respectively), but kept the forecasts for
   apartments in Tokyo to be balanced by underperformance in             India unchanged. In China, we raised the 2020 GDP forecast by
   the retail sector. On a risk-adjusted basis, we believe the real      2.3%pt, but cut the 2021 and 2022 forecasts by 1.8%pt and
   estate market in Japan remains relatively attractive                  0.8%pt, respectively.
   within APAC.                                                        • Risks around our base case are now balanced. The reverse ‘J’
 • Despite the unprecedented contraction in economic activity,           scenario remains the economic base case for our colleagues at
   pricing for core real estate has remained surprisingly firm.          ASIRI – i.e. a deep recession with a drawn-out recovery and
   This is especially the case for office properties in Seoul and        permanent loss in output. That being said, we now see the risks
   industrial properties, in general. For investors who are able to      around our base case as being balanced (versus skewed to the
   venture out slightly on the risk spectrum, we think a core-plus       downside, previously). We had originally thought that a
   or a light value-added strategy may offer a better risk-reward        longer-lived economic shock with a ragged ‘W’-shaped recovery,
   proposition (there is a higher likelihood of securing softer          as second waves emerge and lockdowns are re-imposed, was a
   entry prices for assets with more leasing risks), compared with       greater risk than a sharp ‘U’-shaped recovery. We still think that a
   a core strategy. That said, we do not rule out the possibility of     ‘W’-shaped recovery is a key downside risk and we are concerned
   more core opportunities surfacing over the next 12 months –           about virus hotspots in Latin America, and parts of the US and
   particularly if new waves of infection were to force extreme          China. Our most recent judgement, however, is that better news
   lockdowns to be re-imposed, causing greater volatility in the
                                                                         on the research and production of an international vaccine have
   economy and financial markets.
                                                                         increased the probability of a mass vaccine being available
 • We believe important differences between cities need to be            earlier than the 12-18 months incorporated in our base case.
   considered when assessing the long-term impact of flexible            Consequently, we have attached a higher probability to upside
   working arrangements on offices. For instance, we think the           risks in our base case scenario.
   adoption of flexible work arrangements could be slower in
                                                                       • China: industrial production back to pre-Covid level, but retail
   Japan and the impact on office demand may be more limited
   compared with other markets. As such, we think there could            sales and real fixed asset investments (FAI) lag. Industrial
   be opportunities for more discerning investors to pick up             production in China climbed 1.5% month-on-month (m-m) in
   good-quality assets in these markets if investor sentiment for        May – slower than the 2.2%m-m growth in April and lower than
   offices were to become overly bearish.                                consensus forecast (+4.4% year-on-year (y-y), versus consensus
                                                                         +5% y-y). On the other hand, retail sales gained 5.4% m-m in May
                                                                         (from +11% m-m in April) and FAI increased 4%m-m during the
                                                                         month (from +7% m-m in April). The official data suggests
                                                                         industrial production has now largely caught up with its
                                                                         pre-coronavirus trend, but retail sales and FAI are still around 8%
                                                                         lower than what they were back in January. Importantly, the pace
                                                                         of recovery appears to have moderated. Liquidity conditions
                                                                         have loosened significantly since February. Total social financing
                                                                         gained 12.5% y-y to RMB3.2 trillion in May, which represents a
                                                                         slight acceleration from the 12% y-y pace in April. It also beat
                                                                         consensus expectations of RMB3.1 trillion. Credit growth has
                                                                         been strong for the past three months, but there have been
                                                                         reports that not all credit is going to support business activities.
For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook             03

  While Beijing remains concerned about the risks building in                                        months have demonstrated that there are many job functions
  China’s financial system, risks of further Covid-19 outbreaks                                      that can be satisfactorily performed away from the office.
  could still motivate further loosening of its monetary                                             Westpac, for instance, is reportedly reconsidering the need for
  policy stance.                                                                                     thousands of technology staff to be in its major city offices.
• Japan: domestic resilience. The fall in Japan’s machinery orders                                   It has witnessed productivity increase among its developers and
  accelerated to -12% m-m in April (from -0.4% m-m in March) but                                     major projects have been delivered successfully by home-based
  this was mostly led by external machinery orders (-21.6% m-m,                                      teams during the lockdown in Australia. The troubles at WeWork
  from -1.3% m-m in March). In terms of the labour market,                                           have cast doubt over the business model of flexible workspace
  nominal cash wages fell by 0.6% y-y in April (from +0.1% y-y in                                    operators, especially since the health crisis is likely to reverse the
  March), with the drop in overtime payments being the biggest                                       trend of higher office density. Nonetheless, we think it is likely
  drag on income. The unemployment rate was hardly changed at                                        that more companies will work with flexible workspace
  2.6% in April (versus 2.5% in March). Despite the crisis, ASIRI                                    operators over the longer term to cater for increasingly volatile
  expects the labour market in Japan to remain relatively tight,                                     spatial needs and to reduce their fixed office
  with the unemployment rate likely to peak at just 3.4% by the                                      lease commitments.
  middle of the year. Japan has beefed up the Employment                                           • …while the near-term outlook is mixed. We forecast the
  Adjustment Subsidy Program it has been running since the                                           average prime grade A office rent in APAC to decline 2.1% per
  1970s, expanding eligibility and increasing the benefits paid to                                   annum (p.a.) over the next three years (from +1.8% p.a. in the last
  furloughed workers. This should help dampen the                                                    three years; Chart 2). Among the key APAC office markets, we are
  unemployment cycle. On the flipside, we think there is potential                                   more positive about offices in Singapore and Tokyo, while most
  for wage deflation to return. It appears our view is underscored                                   cautious in Hong Kong. We forecast prime grade A office rents in
  by the latest labour market data.                                                                  Singapore to rise 1.3% p.a. over the next three years (from +9.5%
• Australia: the hard work may have just begun. It appears                                           p.a. in the last three). The Singapore office market entered the
  Australia is once again having a relatively good crisis, at least in                               crisis with fairly robust fundamentals, in our view. The prime
  terms of the impact of the virus itself, where local transmission                                  grade A vacancy rate was 4.1% at the end of 2019 (versus an
  has almost ended. The federal government and the central bank                                      average of 6.5% in the past 10 years) and new supply scheduled
  are also doing their part, with the former launching a historically                                for completion in 2020-22 represents just 8% of the end-2019
  large support program and the latter launching quantitative                                        stock (versus an average of 9.3% in the past 10 years).
  easing (QE). However, our colleagues at ASIRI believe that the                                     Importantly, the bulk of the new completions in 2020 has been
  hard work has only just begun, with the over-levered household                                     committed. We expect the withdrawal of stock for
  sector likely to remain a drag on growth for many years to come.                                   redevelopment under the central business district (CBD)
                                                                                                     incentive scheme and the potential relocation of some firms
 Chart 1: Global GDP (level) forecast, indexed to 100 in the fourth                                  currently in Hong Kong to provide additional support for the
 quarter of 2019                                                                                     market. A similar case can be made for the Tokyo office market.
 110                                                                                                 The prime grade A vacancy rate was just 0.6% at the end of 2019
                                                                                                     and new supply in 2020-22 represents just 10.4% of end-2019
 105                                                                                                 stock (with the bulk of the 2020 new supply already committed).
                                                                                                     We forecast prime Grade A office rents in Tokyo to be stable
 100                                                                                                 (+0.1% p.a.) over the next three years (from +3.5% p.a. in the
                                                                                                     past three).
  95
                                                                                                   • APAC retail: structural challenges exacerbated by Covid-19.
                                                                                                     Among the key property sectors, retail properties (along with
  90
                                                                                                     hotels) have been the hardest hit by the Covid-19 crisis. Policy
                                                                                                     makers have reacted quickly with temporary measures aimed at
  85
                                                                                                     helping retailers tide over the crisis. In Singapore, for instance,
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                                                                                                     rent relief equivalent to four months of rent (evenly shared
  Global      Trend                                                                                  between the government and landlord) is given to small and
 Source: Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute; June 2020.                                medium retailers that have suffered a fall in revenue of at least
                                                                                                     35% on account of the crisis. The temporary relief is unable to
Real estate occupier trends                                                                          address the structural challenges faced by brick-and-mortar
• APAC offices: flexibility will be key focus in the longer term…                                    retail, though, many of which have been exacerbated by the
  We believe the Covid-19 crisis has accelerated trends that were                                    crisis. According to PayPal Australia, customer sign-ups tripled
  already underway prior to the pandemic. Flexibility is the key                                     pre-pandemic levels to almost a third of the Australian
  focus in terms of working arrangements and workspace                                               population during April. Importantly, the surge in new users in
  solutions. In terms of flexible work arrangements, the last three                                  April included a 65% y-y jump in Australians aged 50 and above.
                                                                                                     Slower consumption, an accelerated loss of market share from
For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
04          Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook

“We expect keen investor interest to anchor lower yields,
 despite the softer rental outlook in the near term.”

  offline shopping to online, and thinning retailer margins
                                                                          Chart 2: Net rental change (% y-y)
  continue to be the three key headwinds faced by retail
  properties. We forecast the average prime retail rent in APAC to         25

  fall by 6.3% p.a. over the next three years (from -1.1% p.a. in the      20

  past three years).                                                       15
                                                                           10
• APAC industrial: long-term secular trends remain most
                                                                            5
  favourable. It appears the operational performance of industrial
                                                                            0
  properties has held up relatively well during this crisis.
  For example, rent collection for industrial properties in Australia       -5

  during the month of May was 75%, on average. This compares               -10
  with 67% across all property sectors, based on data from                 -15
  Re-Leased. We expect the secular trends accelerated by the              -20

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  pandemic to underpin occupier demand over the longer term.
  These include an acceleration in migration from offline to online
                                                                           APAC offices                  APAC retail                APAC industrials
  shopping, as well as potential changes in supply chain
                                                                          Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aberdeen Standard Investments, June 2020.
  management (on-shoring and re-shoring of manufacturing
  capabilities, higher-than-usual inventories). While the long-term      Investment trends
  secular trends remain favourable for the sector, we expect some        • Transaction values: investment activity during the first half of
  tenants to face solvency issues and for leasing demand to be             2020 is on track to fall by 45% y-y. The latest data from Real
  more cautious in the near term. We forecast the average prime            Capital Analytics (RCA) suggests the total transaction value of
  industrial rent in APAC to fall by 0.8% p.a. over the next three         investment properties in APAC (excluding development sites) is
  years (from +1.5% p.a. in the last three). Among the key markets         on track to register a 50% y-y decline in the second quarter of
  in APAC, we are relatively positive on logistics properties in           2020, which would represent a bigger y-y fall compared with the
                                                                           41.6% in the first quarter of 2020. This is not a surprise, in our
  China’s tier-one cities, as well as the primary Australian cities of
                                                                           view, considering mobility restrictions in many markets were
  Sydney and Melbourne. We are particularly interested in
                                                                           significantly tightened only from late-March/early-April. This
  last-mile logistics in urban locations.
                                                                           would take the total tally for the first six months in 2020 to about
• Tokyo multifamily rental apartments: tight labour market to              USD46 billion, or 45% lower than during the same period last
  remain a key support for demand. Covid-19 has seemingly had              year. This would also represent the lowest level of investment
  a limited impact on the multifamily rental apartment market              activity in APAC during the first half of a year since 2010 (but still
  within the 23 wards of Tokyo. According to the latest data from          significantly better than the market in the first half of 2009
  Kantei, market rents for rental apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards           during the GFC – Chart 3). In terms of geographical markets,
  gained an average of 5.6% y-y in April and May, despite the              South Korea was the best performer in the first half of 2020
  pandemic. This follows an average 6.4% y-y and a 4.3% y-y                (-20.4% y-y), while Singapore (-89.5% y-y) and Hong Kong (-85.5%
  increase in the first quarters of 2020 and 2019, respectively.           y-y) were the worst. By sectors, residential properties were the
  The market is concerned that potential labour market weakness            most actively transacted in the first half of 2020 (-5.8% y-y), while
  in Japan could negatively impact demand for rental apartments            retail properties had the biggest decline in activity (-62.8% y-y).
  in Tokyo. We expect market rental growth to slow, but we think         • South Korea: record office prices achieved despite Covid-19.
  investors should not be overly pessimistic. Our view is that the         Travel restrictions appear to have turned the focus of domestic
  unemployment rate in Japan is likely to remain relatively low,           capital in South Korea back home. Domestic institutional and
  potentially peaking at just 3.4% by the middle of the year.              private investors accounted for 62% (versus an average of 55% in
  While wage deflation could return, we note that this has                 the past 10 years) and 24% (versus an average of 18% in the past
  historically been a lesser driver of demand compared with the            10 years) of acquisitions, respectively, during the first half of
  unemployment rate. For instance, market rents for rental                 2020. Consequently, record prices have been set, especially in
  apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards have climbed 1.9% p.a. over the           the office market. Young City in Yeongdeungpo-gu, for instance,
  past 10 years, while the overall vacancy rate has steadily declined      has been sold at a yield of just 4.4%, which is reportedly the
  from 7% to 2.2% over the same period. This coincided with a              lowest achieved for a decentralised office asset in Seoul. Also,
                                                                           the Hyundai Marine and Fire Insurance Building has reportedly
  consistent fall in the unemployment rate to just 2.5% as of April
                                                                           secured a record price of KRW34 million per pyung (3.3 per
  (versus 5.1% 10 years ago). Nominal wages in Japan, on other
                                                                           square metre (sqm)) in Gangnam, which represents a premium
  hand, have remained largely static throughout this period
                                                                           of 11.5% above the previous record of KRW30.5 million set by
  (average +0.2% p.a.) with occasional wage deflation. We forecast
                                                                           Samsung C&T Building in the third quarter of 2018. While we are
  the average market rent for Tokyo’s rental apartments to gain
                                                                           cautious about the near-term outlook for office rents in Seoul
  1.6% p.a. over the next three years (from +3.6% p.a. in the              (-1.6% p.a. over the next three years, versus. +0.3% p.a. in the
  last three).                                                             past three), we expect the above-average yield gap of 2.7%pt
                                                                           (versus the average 2.5%pt for APAC offices) to remain relatively
                                                                           attractive to investors.
For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook                                            05

• Industrial properties: keen investor interest to anchor lower                High Yield (HY) Index was 2.09% and 8.16%, respectively.
  yields. Beside residential properties, investment activity in                While the IG and HY OAS are still 89 basis points (bps) and 324
  industrial properties has also held up relatively well year to date          bps higher than their respective levels at the beginning of the
  (-10.6% y-y in the first half of 2020). This is not surprising given         year, they have tightened by 57 bps and 325 bps, respectively,
  the long-term secular trends that are favourable for the sector.             from end-March levels when market sentiment was at its worst.
  One of the closely watched transactions in APAC during the
  second quarter of 2020, for instance, was the sale-and-leaseback         Chart 3: Transaction values for investment properties in APAC
  deal that involved four Aldi distribution warehouses in Australia.       (excluding development sites; USD million)
  The portfolio was first put up for sale in February, with an             100000
  indicative price of AUD700 million, which reportedly translated
  into an initial yield of just 4.3-4.4%. The sale attracted interest          80000
  from several institutional investors and, while the eventual
  winning bid is 7.4% below the initial indicative price (AUD648               60000
  million), it remains a robust price considering the pandemic.
  Also, new capital is being raised to be deployed into the                    40000
  Australian logistics property sector. Arrow Capital Partners,
  for instance, is reportedly creating a new AUD1 billion fund with
                                                                               20000
  Cerberus Capital Management to invest in logistics and industrial
  properties in Australia. This follows the launch of another AUD1
                                                                                   0
  billion fund by ESR Cayman in late-March, which also targets the

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  sector. We expect keen investor interest to anchor lower yields,
  despite the softer rental outlook in the near term.                          Japan   China         Australia      S Korea       HK     Singapore            India    Others
                                                                           *
                                                                            Preliminary estimate
• Listed equity fund-raising: Australian real estate investment            Source: Real Capital Analytics, Aberdeen Standard Investments; June 2020
  trusts (REITs) recapitalised balance sheets after a recovery in
  share prices. On average, the share prices of listed real estate
                                                                          Performance and risk outlook
  investment trusts (REITs) in APAC have gained 10.8% since the
                                                                          • Non-listed real estate: first negative returns since GFC.
  lows at the end of March. Accordingly, the average price-to-book
                                                                            The Asian Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate
  (P/B) multiple has rerated to 1.1x (from just under 1x as at the
                                                                            Vehicles (ANREV) published its quarterly index for the first
  end of March). Managers of listed REITs have therefore
                                                                            quarter of 2020 on 17 June and the all-funds index returned
  capitalised on this window of opportunity to bolster balance
                                                                            -1.36% in the first quarter of 2020 (from +2.52% in the fourth
  sheets by raising fresh equity from investors, especially in
                                                                            quarter of 2019). This is the first time since the GFC that returns
  Australia. The amount of new equity raised by Australian REITs
                                                                            have been negative. All styles registered negative returns during
  (A-REITs) to date in the second quarter of 2020 is just under
                                                                            the quarter: core funds -0.93% (from +2.03% in the fourth
  USD1.8 billion, compared with only USD240.6 million in the first
                                                                            quarter of 2019), value-added funds -2.83% (from +6.59% in the
  quarter of 2020. The bulk of the new equity raised during the
                                                                            fourth quarter of 2019), and opportunistic funds -4.35% (from
  second quarter of this year was represented by the AUD1.4
                                                                            +1.47% in the fourth quarter of 2019). The negative core return
  billion raised by the retail landlord Vicinity Centres in early June,
                                                                            was principally driven by lower capital values (-1.69% in the first
  following preliminary valuations that pointed to a loss of 11-13%
                                                                            quarter of 2020, from +1.02% in the previous quarter; Chart 4),
  in portfolio value. A similar write-down took place earlier in April
                                                                            although the income return also narrowed to just 0.76% during
  for retail properties held by the GPT Wholesale Shopping Centre
                                                                            the quarter (from 1.01% in the fourth quarter of 2019).
  Fund (-11%). We expect the structural challenges facing retail
                                                                            Japan-focused funds are the only ones that registered a positive
  properties in Australia to translate into further downside in
                                                                            return during the quarter (+0.65%, versus +9.5% the
  capital values in the near term (-9.7% p.a. over the next three
                                                                            quarter before).
  years, from +2% p.a. in the past three).
                                                                          • Listed real estate: performance since February aligned to
• Debt funding: credit conditions have improved since the end of
                                                                            fundamentals. Based on the share prices of the major listed
  March. In terms of bank financing to real estate, outstanding
                                                                            REITs by sector in APAC as at 15 June, share prices of hotel REITs
  bank loans to the real estate sector in Japan gained 3.2% y-y to
                                                                            have fallen the most (-23.3%) since the end of February before
  JPY82.5 trillion as at the end of March, according to recent data
                                                                            the coronavirus-triggered market correction. This is followed by
  from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Importantly, new loans to
                                                                            retail REITs (-16.5%) and office REITs (-14.8%). On the other hand,
  corporate real estate entities increased 2.1% y-y to JPY2.8 trillion
                                                                            industrial REITs (+3.7%) and residential REITs listed in Japan
  in the first quarter of 2020, which represents the highest level
                                                                            (-0.9%) have seen relatively less drawdown. The performance is
  since the second quarter of 2009. It appears banks are still keen
                                                                            more or less aligned with the anticipated impact from the
  on lending to the real estate sector in Japan, despite the BOJ’s
                                                                            Covid-19 crisis on the fundamentals of the respective sectors.
  concern over the higher real estate loans to GDP ratio. Liquidity
  conditions have also loosened in the public debt market. As at
  the 15 June, the option-adjusted spread (OAS) of the Bloomberg
  Barclays Asia USD Investment Grade (IG) Bond Index and the
For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
06              Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook

“Concerns over the long-term prospects of offices may create
  opportunities in selected markets.”

• Total returns to remain under pressure in the near term.              • …but that does not rule out potential core opportunities in the
  We expect total returns for non-listed real estate in APAC to           next 12 months. After all, it has been just three months since the
  remain under pressure in the near term. We forecast an average          global pandemic took a turn for the worse in late-March. Real
  total return of -0.3% p.a. for the region over the next three years     estate capital values in APAC have historically lagged the stock
  (versus +8% p.a. in the past three) and we expect greater               market by nine months, on average. If new waves of infection
  divergence in performance among the sectors. We expect                  were to force extreme lockdowns to be re-imposed, this would
  outperformance in industrial properties (+6.5% p.a.) and                cause greater volatility in the economy and the financial markets.
  multifamily rental apartments in Tokyo (+6% p.a.) to be balanced
  by underperformance in the retail sector (-6.5% p.a.). On a           • Concerns over the long-term prospects of offices may create
  risk-adjusted basis, we believe the real estate market in Japan         opportunities in selected markets. The last three months have
  remains relatively attractive within the APAC context (we               demonstrated that there are many job functions that can be
  estimate total returns over the next three years of +2% p.a.).          satisfactorily performed away from the office. Given the
                                                                          expectation that the crisis will accelerate the adoption of flexible
• Macro uncertainties remain the biggest risks. The uncertainties
                                                                          work arrangements by companies, investors are therefore
  in the macro environment continue to pose the biggest risks to
                                                                          concerned over the long-term demand outlook for office space.
  our base case forecasts. This is especially if extreme lockdowns
                                                                          We think there are important differences between cities that
  were to be re-imposed across multiple major markets, causing
  greater economic and financial volatility amid persistently             need to be considered in assessing the long-term impact of
  depressed activity. Potential policy mistakes, coupled with a           flexible work arrangements on offices. For instance, we think the
  greater viral persistency than currently envisaged, could result in     adoption could be slower in Japan (60% of its workforce still
  the speed of recovery being slower than what we currently               reported for work at the office during the state of emergency)
  expect in our base case. Also, a re-escalation in tensions              and the demand for office space there may be less affected
  between the US and China, and other geopolitical risks, is likely       compared with other markets. As such, there could be
  to complicate the macro picture for the APAC markets.                   opportunities for more discerning investors to pick up
                                                                          good-quality assets in markets, such as Japan, if investor
 Chart 4: Composition of core returns (%)                                 sentiment for offices were to become more bearish.
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      3Q17

      3Q18
      1Q07

      3Q10

      1Q16

      1Q17
      1Q08

      3Q16

      1Q20
      3Q07

      3Q14
      1Q14

     Capital return (%)   Income return (%)
 Source: ANREV, Aberdeen Standard Investments; June 2020.

Investment themes
• Core pricing has remained surprisingly firm… This is especially
  the case for office properties in Seoul (where record prices have
  been achieved in Gangnam) and industrial properties, in general.
  We expect investors to increasingly narrow their focus on a few
  selected sectors, such as logistics, multifamily rental apartments
  in Japan’s winning cities like Tokyo and Osaka, and core offices in
  selected gateway cities. The weight of capital is likely to keep
  property yields low for these sectors, despite the poorer
  near-term rental outlook. We think it is more likely for investors
  to secure softer entry prices for assets that come with higher
  leasing and management risks. For investors who are able to
  venture out slightly on the risk spectrum, we think a core-plus or
  a light value-added strategy may offer a better risk-reward
  proposition compared with a core strategy for now.

For Investment Professional use only. Not for further distribution.
Min Chow, Sai                Lucas Tan
                                                                                                                    Head of Property             Senior Analyst
                                                                                                                    Research, APAC               APAC
                                                                                                                    Research–                    Research –
                                                                                                                    Real Estate                  Real Estate

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and your investor may get back less than the amount
invested. Real estate is a relatively illiquid asset class, the valuation of which is a matter of opinion. There is no recognised market
for real estate and there can be delays in realising the value of real estate assets.

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