Asia Pacific Market Snapshot - Q1 2021 Capital Markets & Investment Services | Asia Pacific - Colliers
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Overview Taiwan Hong Kong Across the Asia Pacific region, property markets started the year on a strong Commercial transactions Industrial asset sales rise note, with office, industrial and logistics assets driving the ongoing recovery. jump 241% YoY to 53% QoQ and 20% YoY to TWD44 billion HKD5.4 billion (USD1.5 billion) (USD694.8 million) In China, the busy first quarter saw end-users and investors, including foreign investors, closing major deals in key cities. There was a resurgence in investor interest in Hong Kong and Singapore, while Japan witnessed the completion of a number of commercial and residential transactions. In Korea, low interest rates and liquidity continued to fuel demand for office space, a trend likely to persist as competition intensifies for a shrinking pool of assets, while Taiwan saw demand spike for commercial properties. In Australia, a typically quiet quarter witnessed heightened activity in the office segment, while New Zealand’s property market, buoyed by policy changes, low interest rates and expectations of reopened borders, is gearing up for an active year. Singapore Korea In the region’s emerging markets, India saw healthy demand for residential and commercial assets, and investors remain bullish about the market’s medium to long-term prospects. Vietnam’s property sector is in the midst of a Investment sales climb Major office transaction rebound supported by government reforms, while Indonesia’s property market is benefiting from a smooth rollout 26% QoQ to SGD3.8 billion volumes reach KRW2.4 trillion of vaccines and policy changes that should strengthen purchasing power, improve market confidence and encourage (USD2.82 billion) (USD2.1 billion) investment. Thailand is also witnessing higher levels of market activity, especially in the logistics, warehousing and industrial sectors, but a rebound in the hospitality sector will depend on the resumption of international travel. In the Philippines, where the economy shrunk last year for the first time since 1998, the property market is likely to pick up following the easing of quarantine restrictions and the deployment of vaccines. Meanwhile, in Myanmar, the ongoing political turmoil will affect the near-term outlook, but the market is expected to retain its long-term growth potential, especially in the infrastructure and industrial segments. China Australia Terence Tang John Marasco Managing Director Managing Director Guangzhou sees record-high Leasing inquiries in Capital Markets & Investment Services Capital Markets & Investment Services logistics investment worth the Sydney CBD hit Asia Australia and New Zealand RMB7.23 billion five-year highs State Chief Executive (USD1.1 billion) Victoria
Investors, end-users propel Chinese property market Liquidity-fueled office property boom continues in Korea Several transactions were closed in Q1 by end-users as well as domestic Transaction volumes and unit prices rose in tandem in Korea’s commercial and foreign investors, encouraged by China’s economic recovery. Beijing property market, which continues to be propped up by low interest rates and saw more deals finalised in Q1 than in all of H2 2020, with more expected to ample liquidity. As border restrictions limit outbound investments, interest in Please feel free to close in the coming months. In Shanghai, where 11 deals were completed, domestic office space will remain high. Coupled with shrinking supply, this will end-users were active in the office sector while investors were keen drive top-quality asset prices even higher and push down cap rates. Interest contact our relevant on business parks. Chengdu and Xi’an performed well with eight deals from domestic as well as foreign investors is expected to spill over into capital market experts finalised between them, and interest in office and retail properties is likely logistics, hiking prices and depressing yields in the segment. for further insights and to remain high. Industrial and logistics assets continue to stand out in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. in-depth discussions on key trends and opportunities across this An industrial-sized recovery in Hong Kong Industrial assets aid Singapore rebound fast-changing region. Hong Kong’s property market extended its rebound in Q1, led by investor Amid optimism about the resumption of normal business activities, investors interest in industrial assets. Investors looking to capitalise on local demand and private funds continued to acquire industrial properties. The Boustead will focus on defensive assets while those seeking long-term income will turn Industrial Fund launch underlined the segment’s importance to the city-state’s to subsectors such as logistics, cold storage facilities and data centres. In the property market, which also saw deals close in the commercial segment while residential segment, resilient prices and strong pent-up demand for small to activity in the residential sector accelerated further. With business sentiment mid-sized units are prompting developers to consider acquiring sites for new steadily improving following vaccine rollouts, local and foreign investor projects, as well as collective sales of old tenement blocks for redevelopment. interest in commercial and industrial properties is expected to grow, with retail leading the way. Japan property market sees sustained investor interest Office segment drives revival in Australia Cross-border investors with a presence in Japan completed a number of deals The office segment led the revitalisation of key Australian property markets across the logistics, residential and office sectors, despite a renewed state in Q1. Sydney CBD occupancy rates rose to their highest level in 12 months of emergency in major metro areas that dampened demand, especially in as a growing number of workers returned to the office - a trend also seen in the hospitality sector. With investments in Japanese real estate showing few Melbourne as the Victorian government lifted restrictions on staff coming signs of slowing, fresh capital is expected to pursue logistics and residential in to work. In Brisbane, the CBD office market outperformed all others opportunities in the coming months, as well as office assets at a more modest nationwide last year with the lowest percentage increase in vacancies. A rate, particularly in major cities beyond the Greater Tokyo region. combination of factors, including a public sector-led return-to-office strategy, improving market sentiment and limited asset supply, will pave the way for an even more active Q2 and beyond in these markets.
Beijing Korea South China Japan West China Shanghai Taiwan Hong Kong Philippines India Myanmar Brisbane Thailand Sydney Singapore Melbourne Indonesia New Zealand Vietnam Asia Pacific markets at a glance – An interactive map Click through to view specific market snapshots to find out more
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps hot Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 5 Auckland Home Investor sentiment is improving, buoyed by the start of New Zealand’s vaccine rollout and Carlaw Park Biggest deal | USD79M | Office the prospect of a gradual reopening of the border. This, in concert with the low interest rate environment, has further bolstered demand for commercial property assets. • Core industrial • Bulk retail Review Forecast There is a growing view amongst investors that the worst of A continuation of the low interest rate environment over the the market disruption caused by COVID-19 has now passed. year ahead will sustain interest in higher yielding commercial Major movers of the quarter Locally, the situation continues to be well managed. With property assets. Demand is likely to be further enhanced by • Industrial global vaccine rollout gathering momentum, there is increased recent changes to legislation, which makes residential property optimism and anticipation of a return to relatively normal investment less attractive. Syndicated property offerings market conditions and investors are turning their attention to and assets with a value of up to NZD2 million, approximately longer-term fundamentals. This has bolstered demand for safe haven assets, particularly industrial and bulk retail properties, 80% of the NZ market, are likely to see the greatest lift in demand as a result. The relaxation of border restrictions will • Office both of which are witnessing strong tenant demand. Recent result in a rebound in overseas investor activity, which has Sectors to watch industrial vacancy surveys show market conditions have been hampered over the last year by the inability to inspect remained extremely tight, bolstering the view that vacancy property. The prospect of increased competition emerging is at, or close to, its cyclical peak. Confidence in the office over the year ahead will incentivise local investors to seriously sector is recovering, buoyed by improving demand and supply consider opportunities that arise in the short term. Given the dynamics with confirmed tenant demand for space within new high levels of competition that exist for a limited number of projects underpinning development activity. assets, yield compression will remain a feature of the market in this low interest rate environment. Chris Dibble National Director | Colliers Partnerships, Research and Communications chris.dibble@colliers.com Key market deals Richard Kirke CarLaw Park ANZ Centre 13 William Pickering Drive International Sales Director | Capital Markets Location: 15 Nicholls Lane Location: 23 Albert Street Location: North Harbour, Auckland richard.kirke@colliers.com Value in NZD: 110.0 million Value in NZD: 177.0 million Value in NZD: 17.3 million Buyer: Local Onshore Buyer: Confidential Buyer: Confidential Peter Herdson National Director | Capital Markets Seller: Property For Industry (PFI) Seller: Precinct Properties Seller: Confidential peter.herdson@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps hot Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 6 Beijing Home Q1 recorded nine transactions, higher than the total number of deals in H2 2020. 9 En-bloc transactions Total area transacted for the quarter reached 171,871 sqm, also higher than Q3 and Q4 last year. However, the total value of RMB6.7 billion was down 22% QoQ, mainly due buyers’ rising risk control and preference for strong liquidity. USD1.03B Combined value Review Forecast Domestic and foreign investors completed five transactions Domestic and foreign investor appetite will be rejuvenated totaling RMB5.55 billion, accounting for 83% of the total, as the effect of COVID-19 is gradually decreasing and several Qidi Science and Technology up 83% QoQ. Of the five transactions, two were completed delayed transactions are expected to close by next quarter. by domestic investors totaling RMB 2.79billion. Offices and Office properties in Zhongguancun, Shangdi and CBD areas Complex Block D business parks accounted for six deals worth RMB3.96 billion. will be the focus of the market. Biggest deal | USD408M | Office An office with value-add potential in the Zhongguancun area was sold to domestic investors for RMB2.65 billion. End- users acquired four properties for a total of RMB1.17 billion. • Office Tishman Speyer closed the acquisition of Fraser Suites in • Business park Beijing CBD for approximately RMB2.10 billion. The property Major movers of the quarter has a apartment title and could be strata sold. A mini-storage operator’s acquisition of a retail podium in Fengtai District for RMB240 million. • Office • Logistics Sectors to watch Key market deals Qidi Science and Technology Complex Block D Fraser Suites CBD Location: Haidian District Location: Chaoyang District Value in USD: 408 million Value in USD: 315 million GFA in sqm: 35,500 GFA in sqm: 37,923 Buyer: GoHigh Capital, China Jinmao, Beijing Capital Dev Hldgs Buyer: Tishman Speyer Charles Yan Managing Director | Beijing Seller: Yangguang Insurance Seller: Fraser charles.yan@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps hot Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 7 Brisbane Home The Brisbane CBD office market outperformed all others nationwide last year with Industrial Major mover of the quarter the lowest percentage increase in vacancy, and is forecast to see significant growth in H2 2021. Leasing demand has improved with the ongoing flight to quality and investment activity is forecast to increase markedly in the second half. • Build to rent Review Despite challenging market conditions, the Brisbane CBD Forecast The outlook for the supply of new developments remains • Multi-family leasing market remained resilient in 2020, with total vacancy constrained. There was only 12,747 sqm of net supply added Sectors to watch increasing by only 15,940 sq m (0.7%), to reach 13.6%. The in 2020, with 44,134 sq m due for completion in 2021. While latest figures from the Property Council of Australia show investment activity in the Brisbane CBD office market was office occupancy levels in the Brisbane CBD, at 64% as of subdued in 2020 we expect a significant increase in the second February 2021, remain well below pre-COVID-19 levels. half of this year. However leasing demand has started to recover and is Note: Market data is reflective of Brisbane Office sector only expected to consolidate towards the second half of 2021 when the national vaccination rollout program will be approaching completion. As the flight to quality trend has intensified amid the global health crisis there is a clear divergence in the performance of prime and secondary assets, with vacancies and incentives tending to grow faster for lower-quality assets. Key market deals 310 Ann Street, Brisbane City Jason Lynch Location: Brisbane National Director | Capital Markets Value in USD: 159 million jason.lynch@colliers.com GFA in sqm: 18,362 Don Mackenzie Buyer: Ashe Morgan National Director | Capital Markets Seller: Cornerstone Properties don.mackenzie@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps hot Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 8 Hong Kong Home The investment market for industrial assets has witnessed a pick-up in sentiment 8 En-bloc transactions since the start of 2021 with transaction volumes reaching HKD5.4 billion in Q1, up 53% QoQ and 20% YoY. Review Forecast USD1.30B Combined value The government’s latest budget, announced in February, We believe investors will remain focused on defensive assets included a pilot scheme to charge standard rates for land and properties with a view to capitalising on local demand. premiums to encourage the redevelopment of industrial Meanwhile, investors looking to generate long-term income buildings. We believe this policy will boost investor appetite for streams are increasingly interested in exploring industrial Kai Bo Group Centre industrial assets, fast-track the planning application process, subsectors such as logistics, cold storage facilities and data Biggest deal | USD192.8M | Industrial streamline decision-making and improve market transparency. centres, which are supported by macro drivers, including The removal of double stamp duty on non-residential property growing ecommerce and F&B demand, and expanding 5G • Industrial transactions, announced in November 2020, encouraged some and cloud computing networks. On the residential front, institutional players to actively consider acquisitions in Q1, and developers encouraged by resilient prices and strong pent- the quarter’s most significant transactions involved purchases up demand for small to medium-sized residential units are • Retail by real estate funds or developers. Meanwhile, COVID-19 has looking for sites more actively. While some owners may hold transformed the retail landscape and led the market to focus out for a better price, we expect to see more collective sales, • Office on local consumption trends. As a result, some local investors especially given that some investors are keen to amalgamate Major movers of the quarter are positioning themselves to catch the rebound by acquiring old tenement blocks. retail properties in local neighborhoods. • Industrial • Neighborhood malls Key market deals • Residential development Hang Fat Industrial Building Smile Centre Seapower Industrial Centre (G/F to 4/F) Sectors to watch Location: Cheung Sha Wan Location: Fanling Location: Kwun Tong Value in USD: 123.7 million Value in USD: 41.4 million Value in USD: 73.1 million GFA in sqm: 14,506 GFA in sqm: 9,081 GFA in sqm: 10,909 Buyer: KaiLong Rei Buyer: SilkRoad Buyer: Goodman Nigel Smith Managing Director | Hong Kong Seller: Yuk Cheong Wai Company Limited Seller: Bright Sky Investments Seller: Samson Paper nigel.smith@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps hot Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 9 India Home Residential sales maintained momentum given favourable conditions and strong inherent demand. 3 En-bloc transactions Some large commercial acquisitions were completed and strata offices also witnessed stronger demand as investors look beyond core to development/build to core models. On the industrial side, appetite for in-city fulfillment centres, warehouses and data centres remains robust. USD342M Combined value Review Forecast Market activity picked up in the residential sector while the Large private equity and sovereign wealth funds remain bullish industrial sector enjoyed further growth. Due to continued work from home policies, residential sales remained strong on commercial real estate over the medium to long term and are looking to invest in graded commercial assets, as well as Phoenix Aquilia & and were further supported by low mortgage rates, state forward purchase greenfield assets at attractive valuations. Centaurus government benefits and developers offering discounts to Due to balance sheet stress more land acquisitions/forward Biggest deal | USD266M | Commercial clear unsold inventory. Leasing activity has started picking purchases are likely to be seen in markets like Bangalore, • Residential up and overall absorption for the year will likely be higher Hyderabad, Pune and Mumbai. The continued positive than last year although we expect office occupiers are likely performance of residential means more liquidity is likely to • Industrial to remain indecisive on fresh offtakes due to uncertainties flow through the sector as credit funds, banks and global around the return to work. The industrial and warehousing institutions look to deploy capital. sector continues to attract investment and occupiers, with the share of organised logistics increasing due to the advent of Major movers of the quarter e-commerce and India’s appeal as a global supply chain and manufacturing hub. • Industrial Key market deals • Residential Sectors to watch Phoenix Aquilla & Centaurus Prius Platinum Multiple Location: Gachibowli, Hyderabad Location: Saket, New Delhi Location: Kochi, Bangalore Value in USD: 153 million Value in USD: 113 million Value in USD: 76 million GFA in sqm: 278,709 GFA in sqm: 23,876 GFA in sqm: 418,064 Piyush Gupta Buyer: Varde Partners Buyer: New Vernon Investor: International Finance Corp. Managing Director | Seller: Phoenix Group Seller: IBC Developer: Puravankara Group Capital Markets & Investment Services piyush.gupta@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 0 Indonesia Home • Affordable landed The government is aiming to carry out vaccinations for around 181.5 million housing Indonesians from January 2021 to March 2022. The hope is that this will create herd • Data centres immunity and the economy will gradually recover, which should have a positive Major movers of the quarter impact on the property market. • Logistics Review Forecast • Bank / Creditor-driven The government has implemented several short-term incentives to boost the property sector, including a waiver of The implementation of the Omnibus Law is expected to become a key driver that will strengthen purchasing power, property sales Sectors to watch the 10% VAT on property sales under IDR2 billion, and a 50% increase market confidence and encourage investment in the waiver on property sales above IDR2 billion to IDR5 billion, property sector. The retail sector is predicted to start moving valid from March to August 2021. If successful, this could towards recovery in the second half, but this depends on the be extended; however, it applies only to existing inventory. success of the vaccination programme. The new Minister of In addition, Bank Indonesia has implemented loan to value Tourism and Creative Economy, Sandi Uno, is pushing several financing of 100 percent from March 1 to December 31, 2021, initiatives including the conversion of USD10 billion per year though underwriting guidelines remain challenging. The office typically spent by Indonesians on overseas tourism into and apartment markets remain oversupplied and transaction domestic tourism revenues; a long-term visa policy that would activity is weak. Many office tenants are downsizing and allow foreign tourists to stay in Indonesia for up to five years renegotiating rentals and lease terms. Staycations are helping with a deposit of IDR2 billion or above, and possibly allow prop up hotel occupancy rates. Shopping mall hours and investment in property; and opening international tourism in occupancy rules have been relaxed amid lower COVID-19 Bali through a travel corridor planned in summer 2021. infection rates. More property developers are defaulting on loans or facing increased creditor claims, including bankruptcy proceedings. Steve Atherton Director | Capital Markets & Investment Services steve.atherton@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 1 Japan Home Despite ongoing border restrictions and a renewed state of emergency in major 18 En-bloc transactions metropolitan areas, Q1 2021 saw large transactions across the logistics, residential and office sectors, marked by robust activity from cross-border investors with a Japan platform. USD2.336B Combined value Review Forecast Following a better-than-expected economic recovery in the With the “Go To” campaign to promote domestic travel second half of 2020, a renewed state of emergency declaration and “soft” lockdown for Japan’s major metropolitan areas has suspended in late December and renewed lockdowns Kintetsu Group Kinki-Tokai & Fukuoka Hotels weighing heavily on demand once again, an increase in once again weakened economic prospects and weighed on the distressed hotel assets is likely in the months to come. Even office, retail and hospitality sectors. Despite border restrictions so, given the high pent-up demand for such assets, there may Biggest deal | USD563M | Hospitality being a barrier to overseas capital, investment in Japanese real be fewer opportunities than investors would hope for. Over estate has continued apace. Logistics and residential assets remain the most sought after, the former given compelling the course of 2020 and early 2021, opportunistic buyers have anxiously awaited distressed opportunities in the hospitality • Logistics demand fundamentals and the latter their defensive qualities. sector – to little avail. Core-type capital will continue to pursue • Multifamily residential • Hospitality Interest in the high-grade office market appears to be picking logistics and residential assets, with an emphasis on portfolios up, with domestic corporates to sell and overseas buyers that offer exposure to major cities outside Greater Tokyo. remaining bullish on long-term office demand. Office investment to continue at a modest pace. Major movers of the quarter • Multifamily residential in Osaka, Nagoya, Fukuoka Key market deals • Hospitality Logistics & residential portfolio Recruit Ginza 8 Building Takara Leben Residential Portfolio Sectors to watch Location: Tokyo and Osaka Location: Chuo, Tokyo Location: Tokyo and Yokohama Value in USD: 321 million Value in USD: 191 million Value in USD: 120 million GFA in sqm: Undisclosed GFA in sqm: 16,800 GFA in sqm: 11,800 Buyer: LaSalle Investment Management Buyer: Hulic Buyer: PGIM Hideki Ota Head of Japan Capital Markets & Investment Services Seller: Undisclosed Seller: Recruit Seller: Takara Leben hideki.ota@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 2 Korea Home Although the size of office investment transactions in the first quarter decreased 7 En-bloc transactions compared to the fourth quarter of last year, investors’ interest in the Korean real estate market continues, supported by low interest rates and abundant liquidity. With investors remaining focused on the office sector, opportunities to invest in core assets with stable tenants are becoming more limited. USD2.1B Combined value Review Forecast Pine Avenue B Despite the macroeconomic uncertainties due to COVID-19, Low interest rates and abundant liquidity are likely to drive the total major office transaction volumes for Q1 reached prices of high-quality assets higher. As domestic investors still KRW2.4 trillion (USD2.1 billion), as a number of deals favour the office sector, we expect increased competition for Biggest deal | USD548M | Office were closed. As the market is full of liquidity and global office assets with stable tenants. There are fewer prime office outbound real estate investment remains subdued, prices in assets available on the market in 2021, with competition for a major submarkets are reaching a peak due to competition shrinking pool set to intensify. This is driving cap rate declines among investors. as prices rise. Domestic and foreign interest in logistics assets also continues Office Major mover of the quarter to grow. We expect investors to aggressively pursue logistics assets, depressing yields as prices rise. • Office Key market deals • Industrial Sectors to watch Pine Avenue B Doosan E&C Nonhyeon-dong Building Yeouido Finance Tower Location: Eulji-ro, Jung-gu Location: Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu Location: Yeoui-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu Value in USD: 548 million Value in USD: 208 million Value in USD: 265 million GFA in sqm: 64,225 GFA in sqm: 31,901 GFA in sqm: 42,344 Buyer: Samsung SRA Asset Buyer: IGIS Asset Management Buyer: KB Asset Management Management Harold Lee Seller: Hana Alternative Asset Seller: Keppel Investment Management Senior Director | Capital Markets & Investment Services Seller: KORAMCO REITs & Trust Management harold.lee@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 3 Melbourne Home • Industrial Victoria’s state government officially lifted the cap on the return to work on March 29, allowing 100% of staff to return to offices and requiring public servants to work • Retail Major movers of the quarter from the office for at least three days a week. Review Two on-market campaigns were active in Q1, one being Forecast We expect the second quarter to see more activity, both on Build-to-rent 63 Exhibition Street - a B Grade office building with permit and off market. Underpinning this assumption is the fact that Sector to watch approval for a residential and hotel development that exceeds as of March 28 the Commonwealth Government has removed height restrictions under current planning regulations. The the JobKeeper wage subsidy programme, which at its peak other is 469 La Trobe Street - a core plus office investment in supported 3.5 million workers. As this programme comes to the legal district and one of five assets for sale as part of the an end, we are likely to see a small uptick in unemployment. AMP/Swiss Re portfolio. Combined with the prevalent weakness in the leasing market, Sentiment has improved markedly in 2021. While on-market we expect increased market activity across assets higher activity has been limited, off-market interest for assets across up the risk curve. Value add assets - particularly those held the spectrum has rebounded following an unsteady 2020. by undercapitalised owners who are not able to reposition While investors are now more likely to consider development assets to compete in the current market - will likely trade. or value add, leasing risk is still approached with increased Development opportunities will also trade, notably among caution, given the government’s JobKeeper wage subsidy private owners, who will look to offload sites that were slated scheme has been wound back and there remains a clear for office developments, given the difficulties in securing large preference, at least for the time being, for a blended (home pre-commitments, particularly on the city’s fringes. and office) approach to work. Note: Market data is reflective of Melbourne Office sector only John Marasco Managing Director | Capital Markets & Investment Services State Chief Executive | Victoria john.marasco@colliers.com Anna Cavar Associate Director | Capital Markets anna.cavar@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 4 Myanmar Home • Infrastructure The military’s recent seizure of power and the resulting political and social turbulence has caused major economic setbacks, and may dampen the investment • Industrial Sectors to watch outlook in the immediate term unless political stakeholders soon come to consensus. Despite this, we see Myanmar’s long-term growth potential remaining largely intact, especially for big-ticket infrastructure and industrial developments. Review Forecast Political turmoil hampered market activity in Q1. The World Overall, although some project delays and deferrals Bank expects the economy to contract by 10% this year, a are expected in the near term, developers may remain downward revision following lengthening business disruptions. focused on long-term growth potential and wait until some Market transactions have come to a near-standstill, with many certainty is restored. investors shelving purchase decisions while adopting a wait- Meanwhile, the fate of high-ticket infrastructure projects and-see approach. such as the Yangon Elevated Expressway and Thanlyin However, for large-scale industrial projects including Amata and Dala bridges will hinge largely upon the continuity of Smart Eco City, Sembcorp’s Singapore Myanmar Industrial development assistance from international partners such as Park, and Korea Land & Housing Corporation’s Korea- Japan and Korea. Myanmar Industrial Complex, there have been signals of long- term commitment and the intention to resume construction once the political situation stabilises. A similar approach has been adopted for major commercial projects by Japanese developers such as Kajima Corporation, Fujita Corporation, Tokyo Tatemono Asia Pte. Ltd, and Aeon Co., Ltd. Karlo Pobre Managing Director | Myanmar karlo.pobre@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 5 Philippines Home • Residential The Philippine economy contracted 9.5% in 2020, the worst performance since World War II and the first annual decline since 1998. Despite this, projections are for a rebound of 5.9% • Office to 9.6% in 2021, supported by the easing of quarantine restrictions and the deployment of vaccines. This recovery should have a positive impact on the property market. • Hotel Major movers of the quarter Review Office space absorption has continued to slide, with a net take- Forecast In the office sector, we have observed landlords becoming • Industrial and up of −183,100 sq metres (−1.9 million sq feet) in 2020, down 120% from 2019 – the first ever negative take-up recorded more flexible in accommodating tenants’ requests for lower lease rates and other concessions. These may come in the logistics • Residential on an annual basis. New supply only reached 425,500 sq form of longer rent-free periods, fit-out allowances and metres (4.6 million sq feet) in 2020, down 60% from our initial other customised incentives to secure occupancy despite estimate, as COVID-19 hampered the completion of new the delivery of substantial new supply in 2021. The pace of Sectors to watch buildings. Office rents on average dropped by 17% in 2020. recovery in office leasing will likely hinge on the progress of vaccine rollouts. Turning to residential, we expect a rebound in Residential prices and rents dropped by 13.2% and 7.8%, condominium completions in 2021 with the delivery of 10,600 respectively, in 2020. 3,370 condominium units were units, which is expected to push vacancy rates up further. In completed in 2020, down 70% from 2019. Given the effect of 2022, we expect prices and rents to gradually increase by 1.5% COVID-19 on residential demand and subdued office leasing, and 1.7%. The pace of growth will likely hinge on a rebound vacancy for 2020 set a record high of 15.6%. in office leasing and improved investor sentiment. This should be supported by low interest rates and competitive mortgage rates. Key market deals Commercial Land in Carmona Light Industrial Park GFA in sqm: 1,035 Ieyo Deguzman Consultant | Capital Markets & Investment Services Seller: Phoenix Group ieyo.deguzman@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 6 Shanghai Home Eleven transactions were completed during the quarter, totaling RMB16.9 billion. 11 En-bloc transactions End-users remained active in the office sector while investors are increasingly looking for business park opportunities. Foreign investor activity saw a more pronounced rebound. USD2.604B Combined value Review for RMB2.20 billion. Link REIT acquired 50% of Qibao Vanke Offices and business parks together recorded eight deals Plaza, a stabled retail mall in a DBD area, from GIC for totaling RMB11.75 billion. End-users accounted for four RMB2.77 billion. transactions totaling RMB7.17 billion, representing 61% of Forecast Greenland Bund Center T4 office and business park transaction value, up 6.1% QoQ and Biggest deal | USD854M | Office 48.1% YoY. CCB Life acquired Greenland Bund Center T4 for End-users such as insurance companies, banks and securities RMB5.55 billion. There were four business park deals worth firms will continue to seek properties for self-use in the CBD. RMB4.66 billion, up 212% QoQ and equivalent to the total Income-producing business parks will see active interest Business park value for the last three quarters. Two high-end apartments from both foreign and domestic buyers, who will concentrate with strata sold potential in the core area were purchased on investment opportunities in good locations and with by domestic investors, with demand driven by rising housing value-add potential. Major mover of the quarter prices and restricted purchase policies. Foreign institutions closed two deals totaling RMB4.97 billion, accounting for 29% of total transaction value and up 91% YoY. Allianz and NPS purchased 90% of Innov Star, a business park in Zhangjiang, • Office in CBD • Business park Key market deals Sectors to watch Greenland Bund Center T4 50% Equity of Qibao Vanke Plaza 90% Equity of Zhangjiang Innov Star Location: Huangpu District Location: Minhang District Location: Pudong District Value in USD: 854 million Value in USD: 427 million Value in USD: 339 million GFA in sqm: 58,799 GFA in sqm: 148,853 GFA in sqm: 61,506 Buyer: CCB Life Buyer: Link REITs Buyer: Allianz, NPS Betty Wong Managing Director | China Seller: Greenland Group Seller: GIC Seller: D&J China betty.wong@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 7 Singapore Home OUE Bayfront Singapore investment sales transactions totaled SGD3.8 billion in Q1 2021, posting close to 26% growth from the prior quarter (excluding transactions involving merger and government land (50% stake) Biggest deal | USD470.6M | Office sales). The industrial sector was the highlight for the quarter, while a few notable transactions in the commercial sector were announced after months of negotiations and due diligence. Review Forecast Industrial Major mover of the quarter The industrial sector emerged as the major mover in Q1, Transaction activity is expected to pick up in Q2, as confidence largely attributed to the injection of 14 industrial properties returns from local and foreign investors in commercial and totaling SGD468.6 million into newly established Boustead industrial properties, given optimistic business conditions Industrial Fund (BIF). Investors and private funds also continued to acquire industrial properties as part of their and Singapore’s pro-business environment. The retail sector could see more transactions as suburban malls have become Commercial investment strategies. Residential transaction activity for sought after given their resilience during COVID-19. With Sector to watch private landed housing and good class bungalows (GCB) recent strong developer sales activity and limited land supply, continued to pick up in Q1, while developers acquired private more developers are likely to source for redevelopment sites residential sites through single-owner private land sales through collective sales. Collective sales transactions are or collective sales. Although the commercial sector took a expected to pick up over the next few quarters, as sellers backseat this quarter, notable transactions such as Yew Tee prepare their sites for sale. We expect total 2021 transaction Point and a 50% stake in OUE Bayfront were completed. volumes to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels, rising 20% YOY to SGD29.7 billion. Key market deals OUE Bayfront (50%) Yew Tee Point EDEN (20 units) Location: 50 Collyer Quay Location: 21 Choa Chu Kang North 6 Location: 2 Draycott Park Value in USD: 470.6 million Value in USD: 163.4 million Value in USD: 222.9 million NLA in sqm: 49,237 NLA in sqm: 6,844 Strata Area in sqm: 5,639.2 Buyer: Allianz Real Estate Buyer: Unknown party Buyer: Want Want China Holdings Chairman WeiLeng Tang Seller: OUE C-Reit Seller: Frasers Centrepoint Trust Tsai Eng-Meng,& his son Shao Chung Managing Director | Singapore Seller: Swire Properties weileng.tang@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 8 South China Home Shenzhen recorded three deals worth RMB923 million, with end-users remaining 5 En-bloc transactions active in office and business parks and investors seeking industrial renewal opportunities. Foreign investors closed a record high logistics investment in Guangzhou at RMB7.23 billion, showing the appetite for opportunities of this kind in the Greater Bay Area (GBA). USD1.49B Combined value Review Forecast In Shenzhen, Zhishang Technology purchased a business In Guangzhou, niche assets such as logistics, health care 70% Equity of Guangzhou park in Guangming District for RMB326 million, while Asia Citrus acquired a business park in Longgang District for and data centres will be favored by investors. Meanwhile in Shenzhen, investors are expected to continue International Airport R&F RMB57 million. A domestic developer closed an industrial looking for industrial renewal opportunities as well as Integrated Logistics Park renewal investment in Shenzhen. self-use transactions. Biggest deal | USD1.1B | Logistics In Guangzhou, Blackstone closed a deal for 70% equity in Guangzhou International Airport R&F Integrated Logistics Park, the largest logistics park in the GBA with a total GFA of • Industrial renewal approximately 1.2 million sqm, for RMB7.23 billion. • Business park Major movers of the quarter • Logistics Key market deals • Industrial renewal Sectors to watch 70% Equity of Guangzhou International Airport Shenzhen Industrial Renewal Project R&F Integrated Logistics Park Location: Shenzhen Location: Huadu District Value in USD: 83 million Value in USD: 1.1 billion Land area in sqm: 98,980 GFA in sqm: 1.2 million Buyer: Domestic Developer Alan Fung Buyer: Blackstone Seller: Investment Fund Managing Director | South China Seller: R&F Group alan.fung@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 1 9 Sydney Home Office occupation in the Sydney CBD rose to its highest level in 12 months after Office Major mover of the quarter multinational businesses followed the government’s lead in implementing a return-to-office strategy. Leasing inquiries jumped to five-year highs as freshly confident occupiers began planning future space requirements. • Office Review Forecast • Industrial The first quarter is typically a low volume one in Sydney, a In Q2, we expect transaction volumes to rise as a number of Sectors to watch trend that persisted in Q1 2021 and limited the number of current and upcoming campaigns are finalised. Confidence major transactions in the CBD. However, core grade assets will continue to return across investment grades with core continued to attract investor interest with capital finding its plus and value add investors becoming more active in way to properties in key locations. the Sydney CBD. We saw confidence levels grow as the markets reopened, Note: Market data is reflective of Sydney Office sector only which allowed vendors and investors to review acquisitions following changes in the investment environment. Adam Woodward Head of Office Capital Markets Key market deals adam.woodward@colliers.com 1 Bligh Street, Sydney (33%) 400 George Street, Sydney (25%) 68 Waterloo Road, Macquarie Park James Barber Location: NSW Location: NSW Location: NSW National Director | Capital Markets Value in USD: 284 million Value in USD: 219 million Value in USD: $80.6m james.barber@colliers.com GFA in sqm: N/A GFA in sqm: 51,222 GFA in sqm: 13,486 Buyer: Dexus Buyer: M&G Buyer: Private Investor James Mitchell Director | International Capital Seller: CBUS property Seller: Investa Seller: AMP Capital james.mitchell@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 2 0 Taiwan Home Overall market sentiment remained positive during the quarter, with the 2021 GDP growth forecast 3 En-bloc transactions raised to 4.64%. Total transaction volumes for commercial property reached TWD44 billion (USD1.5 billion) in Q1, representing 241% YoY growth and the highest first quarter level on record. Review Forecast USD963M Combined value Office and industrial sectors remained the major market drivers In March the government implemented a new round of on the back of expansion needs from manufacturers. The most property market cooling measures, including selective credit important industrial hubs, Hsinchu and Taoyuan, enjoyed the growth momentum of key industries such as semiconductors controls and higher real estate capital gains tax, directed mainly against residential property speculation. The tax Sogo Department Store and telecommunications. Shin Kong Life Insurance spent revisions subject transactions with a holding period of less Dunnan Branch TWD5.64billion (USD195million) on Riant Plaza - a mixed- than five years to combined property taxes of 35 to 45 Biggest deal | USD448M | Retail use complex in Hsinchu. En-bloc assets in the Taipei CBD percent. The rate will fall to 20 percent after a property is held • Office remained the most desirable to investors, particularly those for longer than five years, meaning the impact of the change with redevelopment potential. Huang Hsiang Construction – a on mid- to long-term investors will be relatively limited. Given • Industrial listed developer - reportedly acquired Sogo Department Store’s Taiwan’s solid fundamentals and robust economic outlook, Dunnan branch building for TWD13billion (USD448million) commercial property market sentiment is expected to remain through a share transfer, and Shin Kong Life Insurance purchased positive in the coming quarters. The office and industrial the China Development Financial Building for TWD9.3billion sectors remain the segments to watch. Major movers of the quarter (USD320million) through public tender. Both buildings qualify for the urban renewal scheme for potential bonus floor area. • Office Key market deals • Industrial Sectors to watch Riant Plaza China Development Financial Building Sogo Department Store Dunnan Branch Location: Hsinchu Location: Taipei Location: Taipei Value in USD: 195 million Value in USD: 320 million Value in USD: 448 million GFA in sqm: 58,114.94 GFA in sqm: 26,376.40 GFA in sqm: 24,031.4 Derek Huang Buyer: Shin Kong Life Insurance Buyer: Shin Kong Life Insurance Buyer: Huang Hsiang Construction Executive Director | Seller: Riant Capital Seller: CDIB Capital Group Seller: Ren Ai Corp. Capital Markets and Investment Services derek.huang@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 2 1 Thailand Home • Hospitality The year has started with a significantly higher level of activity. While the mantra for last year was “wait and see,” 2021 has seen buyers establish acquisition strategies and prepare for • Office Major movers of the quarter implementation, while some sellers have shown readiness to reduce pricing to attract investors. Review While luxury hotels Sindhorn Kempinksi, Four Seasons and Forecast In the hotel sector domestic demand cannot compensate to Industrial Capella have opened in Bangkok in the last few months, a significant extent in an industry that is hugely reliant on Sector to watch Thailand’s large hotel sector remains under enormous strain. For international visitors. The road to recovery is expected to take the luxury segment, occupancy rates are hovering under 30%, three to four years to get back to pre-COVID-19 levels, and we while lower down the scale many hotels remain shut, particularly are seeing owners reconsider their positions, which we expect in resort destinations Phuket and Koh Samui. Owners have to be reflected by moderate increases to cap rates. continued to benefit from government-led stimulus measures This is in contrast to Thailand’s well-established logistics, and loan repayment holidays, easing immediate cash flow warehousing and industrial sectors, especially around Bangkok stress and helped limit ‘fire sales’ of hotel assets. It has also and within the Eastern Economic Corridor. Demand has not been a challenging start to the year for the office segment, with dropped far below normal levels and some specialist sectors, occupiers reassessing their needs for space and rationalising such as data centres, have seen activity increase. Once their usage, creating a net drop in demand. The residential international travel becomes more practical, we expect activity sector has seen healthy levels of domestic demand, especially to generally rise. Cap rates should remain stable for the time around transit routes and for landed housing, and the industrial being with an outlook for potential declines later in the year. sector has also shown strong resilience. Key market deals BBC Office Building CBD Land, Ratchada Location: Ekamai Location: Bangkok Value in USD: 46 million Value in USD: 35 million GFA in sqm: 42,200 GFA in sqm: 14,400 Buyer: B-Work REIT Buyer: AIA Barny Swainson Senior Director | Capital Markets Seller: Principal Capital Plc Seller: Principal Capital Plc barny.swainson@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 2 2 Vietnam Home Vietnam’s economy is recovering after growth hit its lowest in a decade in 2020. The government 3 En-bloc transactions has set a challenging but feasible GDP growth target of about 6% for 2021. As the administration implements recent legal improvements, the real estate market will continue to rebound Review Forecast USD183.3M Combined value Authorities have started to implement changes to the Due to the uncertainty around COVID-19, purchasing power in Construction and Investment Law to ensure the consistency sectors such as tourism, agricultural products, commerce and of legal processes for investment policy approval, investor real estate has been significantly reduced. Except for Ho Chi approval, investor recognition of residential projects, as well as Minh City, where there is slightly higher demand for residential Lancaster Luminaire to encourage FDI flows into social housing development. New units and land, other regions of the country, including Hanoi, Biggest deal | USD92M | Mixed-use updates to land segmentation, plot redistribution regulations, are facing surplus and pricing pressure. However with real and amendments to a decree on the renovation and estate investment procedures likely to become more efficient reconstruction of old apartment buildings were introduced. and less bureaucratic, the market is seen returning to normal Local investors in Southern Vietnam are investing in new and even reaching new development peaks. The government • Residential residential (second home) projects in Dong Nai, Phan Thiet and Binh Duong, thanks to the commencement of construction of is well aware of the challenges facing the property sector and is striving to make changes to promote stable economic • Industrial Major movers of the quarter Long Thanh Airport and surrounding infrastructure. development regardless of the environment post-COVID-19. Key market deals • Residential (social housing and Lancaster Luminaire Industrial land and factory at Yen Phong Dong Nai Waterfront City Location: Dong Da District, Ha Noi, Location: Yen Phong, Bac Ninh Province, Project second home) Vietnam Value in USD: 92 million (Trung Thuy Vietnam Value in USD: 6.877 million (49% stake) Location: Long Thanh, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam • Office Group - residential) Value in USD: 84.49 million Sectors to watch GFA in sqm: 96,000 GFA in sqm: 252 residential units, 26,839 (Last 30% stake) Buyer: Boustead Projects (Boustead (Office), 6,630 (Commercial) Singapore) GFA in sqm: 1,700.000 Buyers: JV - Trung Thuy Group and Seller: Bui Duc Manh (KTG Industrial Bac Buyer: Nam Long Dev Corp David Jackson Takashiyama subsidiary Toshin Ninh Development Joint Stock Company) Seller: Portsville Pte. Ltd. Chief Executive Officer | Vietnam Development (Keppel Land) david.jackson@colliers.com
C apit al Mar k et s & I nves t m ent Ser vic es | A s ia P ac if ic Mar k et Snaps ho t Q 1 2 0 2 1 | 2 3 West China Home The two provincial capitals performed outstandingly in Q1. In Chengdu, domestic investors and 8 En-bloc transactions local end-users remain active acquirers of office and other properties, which contributed four deals worth RMB1.39 billion. In Xi’an, there were four deals totaling RMB3.26 billion including CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CLCT)’s acquisition of a majority share of two business parks. USD716M Combined value Review Forecast Deals in Chengdu were all completed by local companies. In Chengdu end-users will remain active while investors will The biggest was the acquisition of a retail property with a GFA of 246,000 sqm in Qingbaijiang District by a local SOE for focus on office, retail and mixed-use opportunities. In Xi’an, institutional investors will prioritise income-producing office Changan Metropolitan RMB1 billion. Another local SOE acquired 8,000 sqm in a Grade assets in central areas. Center Block A, B, C, D & E A office in the High-tech Zone for self-use at RMB120 million. Biggest deal | USD263M | Office A local investor purchased an office and apartment projects in Jinniu District at a total price of RMB235 million through the foreclosure process. In Xi’an, CLCT acquired a majority share of two business parks from its affiliates for a total of Office RMB750 million. Jianyin Investment established a Cayman Major movers of the quarter fund in a joint venture with OCT Asia, which acquired Changan Metropolitan Center Block 2 and Block 3 for RMB1.71 billion. Office Beijing Wangfujing Group also completed an acquisition of an outlet in Xi’an for RMB800 million. Sector to watch Key market deals Changan Metropolitan Center Blocks Dagang Ceramic Building Material City Ronghua Outlets Project A, B, C, D & E Location: Qingbaijiang District Location: Xixian New District Keng Geng Location: Beilin District Value in USD: 160 million Value in USD: 123 million Managing Director | Southwest China Value in USD: 263 million keng.geng@colliers.com GFA in sqm: 246,397 GFA in sqm: 87,573 GFA in sqm: 88,364 Buyer: Local SOE Buyer: Wangfujing Group Lily Li Buyer: Jianyin Investment, OCT Asia Seller: Qingbaijiang District People’s Court Seller: Xi’an Ronghua Group Managing Director | Northwest China Seller: OCT Asia yuki.li@colliers.com
View our other recent Market Snapshots by clicking on the images: The world of Colliers EMEA EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021 Capital Markets | Q1 2021 EMEA Market Snapshot Annualized Revenue Established in Managing US - Coming soon $3.3B 67 2B (US$) Countries (square feet) Lease/sale transactions Assets under management Comprised of 54,000 $40B 18,000+ (professionals) Note: All stats are for 2020, are in U.S. dollars and include affiliates
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