Analysts' Ideas of the Week - Last Week's REDDIT Pick was Up 77% in One Day www.researchfrc.com - Baystreet.ca
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Analysts' Ideas of the Week Last Week’s REDDIT Pick was Up 77% in One Day March 8, 2021 www.researchfrc.com
Page 2 Reddit Discussed Stocks Last week’s pick, Rocket Companies Inc. (NYSE: RKT) went from $24.30 on last Monday’s close to $43 the next day (up 77%). Based on our review of multiple data points on retail platforms, we have selected Express Inc. (NYSE: EXPR) as our momentum pick for this week. Key parameters used include – a) total number of mentions, b) percentage change in the number of mentions, c) stock sentiment, d) stock price trend, and e) market capitalization. March 8, 2021 Company Ticker Sector 1-day Return Express, Inc. EXPR Consumer Retail 63.82% Source: Yahoo! Finance, FRC FRC Top Picks The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including three financials, one technology, and one gold junior. The Financial sector was one of the best performers in the past week due to rising treasury yields. Among our picks, the top performer, Hello Pal (CSE: HP), was up 94% WoW, and 177% since we launched coverage on February 16, 2021. Our latest report can be viewed here. Top Five Performers Last Week Source: FRC Overall, our portfolio (equally weighted) was down 2.9% in the past week versus the benchmark’s (TSXV) -9.8%. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 3 Source: FRC Performance by Sector Source: FRC Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here. Weekly Mining Commentary Four of the seven global equity indices we track had positive returns in the past week. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 4 Source: FRC / Various Prices of mainstream metals fell last week due to a stronger US$, amid rising yields. The Fed indicated last week that they have no intent to take action to control the recent spike in yields. Rising rates are typically beneficial for financials, but negative for economic growth and equity markets. However, the Senate passed Biden’s US$1.9T stimulus package last weekend. The stimulus package, and vaccine rollout, bode well for an economic recovery in the second half of this year. As shown below, inflationary expectations have started rising again, following a decline from record levels last month. Although we expect gold to be under pressure in the near-term (due to rising yields), we expect a recovery in the second half as actual inflation kicks in from a strong economic recovery driven by pent-up demand, and savings set aside by consumers. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 5 Except Brazil, Italy, and Poland, most of the hardest hit nations continued to report a decline in new cases of COVID-19. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 17.6% of the U.S. population has received vaccinations vs 14.9% at the same time last week. This compares to 32.7% in the U.K. (up from 29.6%). Israel is at 57.3%, up from 54.6%. The U.S. recently approved Johnson & Johnson’s (NYSE: JNJ) vaccine, which requires only one dose. Biden stated last week that the U.S. will have enough ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 6 vaccines for every adult by the end of May. We now expect 50% of the U.S. population to be vaccinated by July (previously August 2021), based on the above developments, and the current run rate of 1.5 – 2.0M doses per day. Potential Breakthrough for Nickel Supply A noteworthy event last week was a 13% decline in nickel prices. This was a result of an announcement by China’s Tsingshan Holding Group (the world’s largest stainless steel producer) that they have developed a new technology/manufacturing process to convert nickel pig iron into a product suitable for EV batteries. We consider this to be a major development as, until recently, only Class 1 (sulphide ore), which accounts for 50% of nickel supply, was considered to be suitable for EV batteries. Due to their higher iron content and impurities, Class 2 nickel (ferronickel and nickel pig iron) was not considered to be suitable. Tsingshan’s new process could potentially double the supply of nickel for EV batteries, and ease concerns of a nickel shortage for batteries. Last month, Elon Musk had stated that nickel supply was a major concern. We had expected this news to result in a larger drop in nickel prices. Sources indicate that market participants are skeptical and uncertain of the incremental cost of this new process, and whether it is energy-intensive and/or pollutant. Tsingshan’s products are only expected to be delivered later in the year, so we will not have answers until then. Another key point is that, if more pig iron is used for EVs, there will be less supply for stainless steel. Therefore, it is a bit early for us to assess the real impact of Tsingshan’s announcement. Some sources state that Nickel prices need to be at least $7/lb for pig iron (for use in batteries) to be economic. We are maintaining our long- term forecast at US$8. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 7 Inventory levels of base metals were generally higher on the LME, and the SHFE (Shanghai). We expect base metals prices to experience downward pressure as a result. Despite the decline in commodity prices, valuations of gold producers were up 6% WoW, while that of base metals producers were down 1%. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 8 ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 9 We are maintaining our forecasts, but expect prices to remain volatile in the coming months. We believe gold has the highest upside this year. In the following section, we review companies that announced key developments in the past week. The table below summarizes the changes we made in ratings/fair value estimates/EPS projections of companies under coverage in this report: ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 10 Mining / Exploration Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Monarch TSX: GBAR $0.84 $1.68 Mar 4, 2021 Mining Mar 8, 2021 Corporation PR Content FRC Opinion Closed a previously announced $5M Positive – We had initiated coverage on bought deal financing. GBAR also staked GBAR last month. It was spun out from additional land, and expanded the size of Monarch Gold, which was acquired by its McKenzie Break property in Quebec. Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI) for $152M in December 2020. Management is planning an aggressive $7M resource expansion program across three properties over the next 18 months, and re-commence production at the Beaufor mine in 2022. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: UEX TSX: UEX $0.28 $0.45 Mar 8, 2021 Corporation PR Content FRC Opinion Positive – Such high values over long Ongoing drilling intersected a new zone of cobalt-nickel mineralization on the intercepts are highly encouraging. This is West Bear property in the Eastern the second location of high-grade cobalt- Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan. nickel mineralization identified on the project. Management intends to continue ➢ 0.52% Co and 1.01% Ni over 23.5 m drilling this new area. UEX maintains its from 44.0 to 67.5 m, including position as one of the leading uranium ➢ 2.08% Co and 3.58% Ni over 4.5 m juniors in the country. Cameco (TSX: CCO) ➢ 0.93% Co and 0.79% Ni over 3.5 m is a significant shareholder. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 11 Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Noram TSXV: NRM $0.68 $1.27 Mar 2, 2021 Ventures Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Completed eight of a proposed 12-hole Positive – All these holes were step-out drill program on its Zeus lithium property holes. We remain confident on our previous in Nevada. Results from six holes estimate, and continue to base our valuation averaged 1,116 ppm over 71 m. on a 50% increase in the current resource estimate. An updated resource is expected in Q2. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: GMV Minerals TSXV: GMV $0.25 $0.62 Mar 1, 2021 Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Planning a two-phase drill program on its Neutral – The project has 688 Koz in Mexican Hat property in Arizona. Phase 1 inferred resources. A 2020 PEA had will include eight step-out holes totaling returned an After Tax-NPV5% of US$100M, 3,050 m, with a goal to expand strike at US$1,600/oz gold. GMV’s MCAP is just length by 70%. C$15M. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Falcon Gold TSXV: FG $0.09 $0.29 Mar 2, 2021 Corp PR Content FRC Opinion Released additional encouraging results Positive – The company has drilled over a from a drill program at its flagship Central 275 m strike length. Mineralization has been Canada gold mine project in Ontario. Key traced from surface to a depth of over 161 results included 10.8 gpt over 0.3 m, 2.8 m. We believe these results increase our gpt over 1.7 m, and 7.1 gpt over 0.5 m; conviction on the project’s 230 Koz historic from three separate holes. resource estimate, on which our fair value estimate is based on. We expect a maiden resource estimate this year. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 12 Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Sonoro Gold TSXV: SGO $0.19 $0.32 Mar 3, 2021 Corp Mar 5, 2021 PR Content FRC Opinion Metallurgical tests on its Cerro Caliche Positive – These gold recoveries are higher property in Sonora (Mexico) returned than typical leaching recoveries of 70-75%. recoveries (leaching) of 80.3% for gold We were also pleased to find that and 27.2% for silver. recoveries across the entire resource area returned favorable results. A PEA is expected to be completed in Q3. SGO is expected to work on an updated resource estimate, followed by a PEA. We are expecting a significant increase in the updated resource estimate. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Azincourt TSXV: AAZ $0.095 NA Mar 3, 2021 Energy Corp PR Content FRC Opinion Closed the final tranche of a $4.24M Positive - Funds will be primarily used for financing. the East Preston uranium project in the Athabasca Basin. Management is planning a 10-12 hole, 2,000 – 2,500 m drill program ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 13 Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Braveheart TSXV: BHT $0.09 $0.42 Mar 3, 2021 Resources Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Entered into an option agreement to Positive – Alpine is within trucking distance acquire the past-producing Alpine Mine to the company’s flagship Bull River project. property near Nelson, B.C. for 1M shares, We believe this new project has potential to $100k in cash, and $700k in property provide additional materials for processing. expenses before December 2022, and Bull River can be advanced to production subsequent payments totaling $2.9M in for just $6.5M in CAPEX. The company is 2023/2024. The project has an inferred evaluating financing options, and applying resource of 142 Koz at a very high grade for permits to potentially commence of 16.5 gpt, implying a valuation of $53/oz production later this year. vs the sector average of $60/oz (100% M&I + 50% inferred). Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: GR Silver TSXV: GRSL $0.63 $0.98 Mar 4, 2021 Mining Ltd. PR Content FRC Opinion Drill results from the Plomosas silver Positive - These results are encouraging project in Sinaloa, Mexico continue to for the upcoming maiden resource return high-grade values: estimates on the Plomosas Mine and San Juan areas. Note that our fair value • 5.7 m @ 611 g/t Ag, 0.5 % Pb, and 1.7 estimate is solely based on GRSL’s San % Zn, including 1.7 m @ 1,762 g/t Ag, Marcial silver project, which has an 1.3 % Pb, and 4.9 % Zn, and 0.7 m @ indicated resource of 36 Moz (147 gpt 3,755 g/t Ag, 2.5 % Pb and 9.7 % Zn AgEq), and an inferred resource of 11 Moz (108 gpt AgEq). ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 14 Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Doubleview TSXV:DBG $0.355 $0.47 Mar 8, 2021 Gold Corp. PR Content FRC Opinion Announced positive metallurgical tests Positive – Pleased with this announcement indicating that cobalt can be recovered as prior studies had indicated that 15% - from the company’s HAT gold-rich copper 20% of Hat’s value comes from cobalt, with project. Previous tests had only confirmed copper at 45% - 50%, and gold at 30% - copper and gold recoveries. Potential 40%. A maiden resource estimate is recovery of palladium and nickel are expected shortly. We have a preliminary being tested. estimate of 540 Mt at an average grade of 0.2 gpt gold and 0.25% copper (0.57 gpt AuEq). Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Gold Springs TSX: GRC $0.09 $0.30 Mar 8, 2021 Resource Corp PR Content FRC Opinion Commenced resource expansion drilling Neutral – The project has a measured and (50 holes / 10,000 m) at its flagship Gold indicated resource of 610 Koz gold (0.53 Springs project on the Nevada-Utah gpt) and 10.8 Moz silver/Ag (9.4 gpt), and border. an inferred resource of 90 Koz Au (0.49 gpt) and 1.3 Moz Ag (7 gpt) on four of 32 identified targets on the property. A PEA reported an After Tax-Net Present Value / AT-NPV @ 10% of US$111M, using $1,450 per oz gold. GRC’s MCAP is $21M. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 15 Technology, Energy, and Special Situations Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Exro TSXV: EXRO $4.00 N/A Mar 4, 2021 Technologies Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Shares were down 29% since the Negative – Although we have been publication of a short report last week. disappointed by the slow pace of Prices are down 47% from the highs last development of its partnerships, we are not month. The report gave a price target of overly concerned as we believe that delays $0.35 per share, and alleged the in commercialization are not uncommon for company of exaggerating partnerships. such partnerships. With regard to insider The report highlighted lack of revenue selling, Exro stated that its CEO has sold and insider sale of shares as red flags. 18% of her shares due to personal reasons. We have not been able to discuss these recent developments with management. We are temporarily retracting our fair value estimate, while maintaining our HOLD rating. We will publish a note shortly after a discussion with the company. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 16 Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Hello Pal CSE: HP $1.76 $2.67 Mar 8, 2021 International Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Announced it has entered into a letter of Neutral –Dogecoin (market cap: US$7.6B) intent with partner, Shanghai Yitang Data and Litecoin (mcap: US$12.5B) are 10th and Technology Co. Ltd. (provider of digital 14th, respectively, in terms of market cap. wallet services), to acquire a We believe this could be a good strategy as cryptocurrency mining facility (15% for it allows the company multiple opportunities $0.98M, with an option to acquire an to generate revenue such as charging a lift additional 20% for $1.56M), and mining on the initial participation, and taking a rigs (51% for $3.75M, with $1.5M in cash, management fee from mining proceeds, in and the rest in shares and warrants), to addition to the intangible benefits like mine Dogecoin (DOGE) and Litecoin attracting new members. We need more (LTC). Management expects to become information on how management plans to the world’s third largest Dogecoin/Litecoin integrate this new initiative with the existing miner when the acquired assets are model in order to assess whether this is a operating at full capacity. The company good ROC or COA play (if an ROC play, also announced plans to initiate a more info on lift and fees; if COA play, how financing of up to $10M to fund the many new users will this generate?). We acquisition. maintain our revenue projection of $15.41M in FY-2021, and $51.84M in FY-2022. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Kidoz Inc. TSXV: KIDZ $0.95 $1.08 Mar 1, 2021 PR Content FRC Opinion Partners with TopOn, an ad mediation Positive – Kidoz’s compliant and kid-safe technology in China, which allows app network attracted TopOn. This deal will owners to optimize their ad revenue by allow KIDZ to expand its network in China. using ad networks. Users of TopOn can At the end of 2020, KIDZ’s network had now use Kidoz ads inside their app. over 300M users. KIDZ’s shares are up 79% in the past month. We will be publishing an update when 2020 year-end results are announced. The company has pre-announced key results, including $7.2M in revenue in 2020, up 58% YoY, and $0.14M (EPS: $0.00) in net profit vs a net loss of $14M (EPS: -$0.12) in 2019. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 17 Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Diginex Limited NASDAQ: US$11.50 US$24.70 Mar 4, 2021 EQOS PR Content FRC Opinion Announced the launch of Ethereum Neutral – We are pleased to see Diginex (ETH) futures. adding more products to its portfolio of offerings, which will contribute to transaction volume growth. For 2021 and 2022, we are estimating revenues of $10.21M and $87.15M (unchanged), respectively. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Banxa Holdings TSXV: BNXA $2.74 N/A Mar 5 & 8, 2021 Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion $70.4M in Total Transaction Value (TTV) Positive – TTV in the first two months have in February, up 980% YoY and 28% already exceeded the previous quarter’s MoM. TTV of $111M. We will release our initiating report on Banxa shortly. Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Clean Seed TSXV: CSX $0.63 $1.14 Mar 4, 2021 Capital Group Ltd. PR Content FRC Opinion Announced that it has started recruiting Positive – We are pleased to see Clean distributors for its SMART Seeder MAX S Seed moving along with its product launch units. timeline of April 2021. We are estimating revenues of $600k in 2021, and $7.5M in 2022 (unchanged). ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 18 Cannabis Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: Delta 9 TSX: DN $0.50 $1.24 Mar 4, 2021 Cannabis Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Announced that it has completed a Positive – We are pleased to see DN service agreement with another client. DN continuing to see demand for its B2B has now licensed over 100 grow pods in services and grow pods for cultivation. B2B third party facilities across Canada. revenue accounts for about 23% of our revenue estimates of $52.37M in 2020, and $67.44M in 2021 (unchanged). Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value Date of PR: Name: Symbol Price: Estimate: AgraFlora CSE: AGRA $0.05 $0.08 Mar 8, 2021 Organics International Inc. PR Content FRC Opinion Announced the appointment of a new Neutral – We were surprised to see the CEO. sudden change in top management. We will reach out to the company to find out if there is any change in vision/mandate. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 19 Weekly Cannabis Commentary Cannabis Industry Performance Source: TMX Money, FRC Over the past week, the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (TSX: HMMJ / “HMMJ”), the Standard & Poor’s/MX International Cannabis Index (“MCAN”), and the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Cannabis Index (“XCAN”) generated returns of -11%, -12%, and -13%, respectively. There were no significant industry developments in the past week. Surging Sales in Canada Canada recorded $2.6B in cannabis sales in 2020, up 120% YoY. Much of the increased sales is attributed to more retail stores opening up across the country (see the retail store section for details). However, the pandemic also contributed to increased consumption in the year. As reported by Marijuana Business Daily, about 34% of cannabis users increased consumption during the pandemic for the following reasons: ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 20 Source: MBD Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a significant premium over its U.S. based counterparts. With federal legalization in the U.S., we expect this trend to change: Forward Price/Revenue of Cannabis Stocks: U.S. vs Canada Source: WSJ Our research indicates significant short positions on some of the major Canadian stocks (see table below). From what we have seen on the retail trading pattern on GME, AMC etc., we think large short positions have the potential to draw retail investor’s attention. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 21 Short Positions as Reported on March 1, 2021 Source: Factset Valuation of Select Canadian LPs The following chart shows the average Enterprise Value to Revenue (“EV/R”) of the Canadian cannabis companies we track. Average EV/R (October 2019 – March 2021) ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 22 February 26, 2021 March 5, 2021 Company Ticker TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA TEV/Revenue TEV/EBITDA Aphria Inc. TSX: APHA 12.7 118.6 11.1 104.3 Aurora Cannabis Inc. TSX: ACB 9.7 NM 8.8 NM Canopy Growth Corp. TSX: WEED 30.2 NM 28.4 NM Cronos Group Inc. TSX: CRON 93.2 NM 65.8 NM Tilray Inc. NASDAQ: TLRY 22.6 NM 20.1 NM HEXO Corp. NYSE: HEXO 10.7 NM 9.7 NM Organigram Holdings Inc. TSX: OGI 11.1 NM 9.6 NM The Supreme Cannabis Co., Inc. TSX: FIRE 4.9 NM 4.5 NM AVERAGE 24.4 NM 19.7 NM MEDIAN 11.9 NM 10.4 NM MINIMUM 4.9 NM 4.5 NM MAXIMUM 93.2 NM 65.8 NM Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC The average EV/R, as of March 5, 2021, was 19.7x – a WoW decrease from 24.4x. The average EV/R, from October 7, 2019 to March 5, 2021, was 13.4x. Canadian Retail Cannabis Pricing Province (As of 2021/3/8) Average Price per Gram Average Price per Gram THC Average Price per Gram CBD # of Products Min. Price Max. Price B.C. $ 9.79 $ 9.89 $ 8.42 192 $ 3.53 $ 15.71 Ontario $ 9.55 $ 9.73 $ 8.08 330 $ 4.00 $ 23.98 Quebec $ 9.28 $ 9.27 $ 9.40 226 $ 4.85 $ 21.68 Alberta $ 11.32 $ 11.32 $ 11.00 339 $ 3.93 $ 22.00 N.B. $ 9.76 $ 9.98 $ 7.58 189 $ 3.57 $ 16.28 P.E.I. $ 9.67 $ 9.69 $ 9.34 167 $ 2.20 $ 23.30 Newfoundland $ 10.08 $ 10.04 $ 10.36 158 $ 4.46 $ 15.40 Yukon $ 15.39 $ 15.53 $ 13.95 11 $ 12.69 $ 22.28 N.S. $ 10.31 $ 10.36 $ 9.73 184 $ 5.36 $ 42.85 Nunavut $ 13.15 $ 13.35 $ 12.41 32 $ 9.43 $ 17.91 Northwest Territories $ 14.68 $ 14.68 2 $ 12.08 $ 17.28 Manitoba $ 11.47 $ 11.41 $ 11.62 346 $ 4.90 $ 20.43 Saskatchewan $ 12.38 $ 12.40 $ 12.07 211 4.95 38.50 CANADA $ 11.29 $ 11.36 $ 10.33 Province (As of 2021/03/01) Average Price per Gram Average Price per Gram THC Average Price per Gram CBD # of Products Min. Price Max. Price B.C. $ 9.78 $ 9.88 $ 8.42 188 $ 3.53 $ 15.71 Ontario $ 9.61 $ 9.79 $ 8.08 329 $ 4.00 $ 23.98 Quebec $ 9.31 $ 9.28 $ 9.55 227 $ 4.85 $ 21.68 Alberta $ 11.33 $ 11.34 $ 11.00 337 $ 3.93 $ 22.00 N.B. $ 9.91 $ 10.14 $ 7.58 188 $ 3.57 $ 16.28 P.E.I. $ 9.67 $ 9.69 $ 9.34 167 $ 2.20 $ 23.30 Newfoundland $ 10.08 $ 10.04 $ 10.36 158 $ 4.46 $ 15.40 Yukon $ 15.39 $ 15.53 $ 13.95 11 $ 12.69 $ 22.28 N.S. $ 10.33 $ 10.37 $ 9.82 183 $ 5.36 $ 42.85 Nunavut $ 12.91 $ 13.04 $ 12.41 33 $ 5.19 $ 17.91 Northwest Territories $ 14.68 $ 14.68 2 $ 12.08 $ 17.28 Manitoba $ 11.45 $ 11.38 $ 11.62 343 $ 4.90 $ 20.43 Saskatchewan $ 12.34 $ 12.36 $ 12.07 208 4.95 38.50 CANADA $ 11.29 $ 11.35 $ 10.35 Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC The average retail price per gram remained the same WoW at $11.29. The chart below shows Canadian retail dried cannabis flower pricing since we initiated price coverage. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 23 Canadian Retail Dried Cannabis Flower Pricing Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores As of March 8, 2021, there are 1,654 retail cannabis stores, a WoW increase of 11 stores across Canada, of which Alberta had 7, and Ontario had 4. Nationwide Store Count ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 24 Feb-16-2021 Feb-22-2021 Mar-1-2021 Mar-8-2021 Geographic Region Store Count Store Count Store Count Store Count Population Population / Store Alberta 572 575 579 586 4,428,247 7,557 B.C. 310 311 310 308 5,120,184 16,624 Manitoba 56 64 64 64 1,379,121 21,549 N.B. 20 21 21 21 780,890 37,185 N.S. 21 24 24 24 978,274 40,761 Newfoundland 30 30 30 30 520,437 17,348 Northwest Territories 5 6 6 6 44,982 7,497 Nunavut na na na na 39,486 N/A Ontario 429 451 490 494 14,745,040 29,848 P.E.I. 4 4 4 4 158,717 39,679 Quebec 60 61 61 63 8,552,362 135,752 Saskatchewan 45 49 49 49 1,181,987 24,122 Yukon 5 5 5 5 41,293 8,259 CANADA 1,557 1,601 1,643 1,654 37,971,020 22,957 Source: Provincial Websites, FRC Weekly Psychedelic Commentary Psychedelic Industry Performance Source: TMX Money, FRC Over the past week, PSYK generated a return of -15%. MindMed (NEO: MMED) announced a $19.5M bought deal at $3.25 per unit. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Page 25 Disclaimers and Disclosure The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned in pages 3, and 10-17 are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares in some companies mentioned in this report including Barrick, JNJ, BMO and HP. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web- based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains "forward looking" statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company's products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company's new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company's periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction. ©2021 Fundamental Research Corp. “17+ Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront” Click here to view FRC’s complete list of top picks PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
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