American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia Featuring an Updated National American Islamophobia Index Candlelight walk protesting the Muslim Ban in Washington, D.C. I SPU’s fourth annual poll informs national conversations with the voices of everyday Americans. Researchers, policymakers, and the public have access to key insights and analysis into the attitudes and policy preferences of American Muslims, Jews, Catholics, Protestants, white Evangelicals, the non-affiliated, and the general public. For the second year, in partnership with Georgetown University’s The Bridge Initiative, we track the National American Islamophobia Index, measuring how much the public endorses anti-Muslim tropes. New this year: Our researchers examine protective factors against Islamophobia, as well as data-driven recommendations for those working to elevate American Muslim civic engagement and for those combating anti-Muslim bigotry. American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 1
Research Team Dalia Mogahed, Report Co-Author, Director of Research Azka Mahmood, Report Co-Author Youssef Chouhoud, Data Analyst, ISPU Fellow, Assistant Professor at Christopher Newport University Erum Ikramullah, Research Project Manager Communications Team Katherine Coplen, Director of Communications Katie Grimes, Communication & Creative Media Specialist Advisory Team Khaled Beydoun - JD UCLA School of Law; Associate Professor of Law at the University of Arkansas School of Law; Senior Affiliated Faculty at the University of California-Berkeley Contents Karam Dana - PhD Interdisciplinary Near and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Washington; Assistant Professor at the University of Washington Bothell Introduction 3 David Dutwin - PhD Communication and Public Opinion, Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania; Executive Vice Executive Summary 4 President and Chief Methodologist at SSRS John Esposito - PhD Temple University; Professor of Religion, Results 7 International Affairs, and Islamic Studies at Georgetown University Rachel M. Gillum - PhD Political Science, Stanford University; Fellow, Civic Engagement 7 Stanford University Amaney Jamal - PhD Political Science, University of Michigan; Edwards Faith and Community 13 S. Sanford Professor of Politics at Princeton University Nazita Lajevardi - PhD University of California, San Diego; JD University Islamophobia Index 19 of San Francisco; Assistant Professor, Michigan State University Kameelah Mu’Min Rashad - MS MEd University of Pennsylvania; MRP Recommendations 25 International Institute for Restorative Practices; Founder and President of the Muslim Wellness Foundation Methodology 26 Cover photo: "Candlelight Vigil" by Miki Jourdan (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) Endnotes 27 For more information about the study, please visit: http://www.ispu.org/poll Acknowledgements ISPU would like to acknowledge our generous supporters whose contributions made this report possible, including: The Bridge Initiative, Alwaleed Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, Georgetown University RISE Together Fund Democracy Fund ISPU would like to acknowledge the following partners: •• America Indivisible •• CAIR •• Emgage •• ISNA •• Khalil Center •• MPower Change •• Muslim Mental Health •• Muslim Public Affairs Council •• No Muslim Ban Ever Campaign •• Poligon Education Fund •• Stanford Muslim Mental Health Lab Suggested citation: Mogahed, Dalia and Mahmood, Azka. American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia. May 2019: The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.
American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia Featuring an Updated National American Islamophobia Index Introduction Triumphs and tribulations punctuated the year leading up communities. This includes the Muslim community, to ISPU’s fourth annual poll of American religious com- where a new grassroots organization called FACE munities. In June 2018, the Supreme Court upheld a (Facing Abuse in Community Environments) began to fourth iteration of the travel ban, which allows vast im- investigate and document cases of alleged abuse in an migration restrictions for travelers from Iran, Libya, North effort to raise awareness and demand accountability. Korea, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen. Five of these seven nations are majority Muslim. In their scathing It was against this backdrop that ISPU conducted its dissent of the majority decision, Justices Sonia Sotomayor fourth annual 2019 poll of American faith and non-faith and Ruth Bader Ginsburg said the ruling “leaves undis- groups. turbed a policy first advertised openly and unequivocally as a ‘total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering How were Americans of varying faith backgrounds the United States’ because the policy now masquerades feeling about the direction of the country in the midst of behind a façade of national-security concerns.” a government shutdown? In a year where voter turnout broke records, how likely were Americans who are Later that year, Ilhan Omar, a hijab-wearing former Muslim to participate in the midterm election compared refugee originally from Somalia, and Rashida Tlaib, a to other groups? More importantly, what factors predict Palestinian American, were the first Muslim women their participation? Does a candidate’s support for the elected to the U.S. House of Representatives, each so-called Muslim ban help or hurt their run for public taking her oath on her personal Quran. office? And with whom do Muslims find the greatest political common ground? How common are unwanted Analysts have credited the record-breaking voter turnout sexual advances from a faith leader in each religious of the 2018 midterms for bringing Omar and Tlaib to community? And how likely is it that these alleged trans- Congress in an election that saw a number of “firsts,” gressions are reported to law enforcement or commu- mostly Democratic women of color and LGBTQ indi- nity leadership? viduals. These Freshman lawmakers make up a new class of members of Congress who ran on some of the We also continue our annual measure of the most progressive and anti-establishment platforms seen Islamophobia Index with the Bridge Initiative, a in years, and gave Democrats a majority in the House. measure of the level of public endorsement of anti- Muslim tropes. Have levels of Islamophobia in America This new Congress witnessed the longest government increased, decreased, or stayed the same? Last year shutdown in history (lasting from December 22, 2018, we examined the impact of Islamophobia on society, to January 25, 2019) over President Donald Trump’s discovering that higher levels of anti-Muslim sentiment demand for $5 billion to complete a wall on the U.S.- are linked to greater acceptance of violence against ci- Mexico border, leaving large swaths of the American vilians, authoritarian policies, and anti-Muslim discrimi- public without income for five weeks. nation. This year, we sought to explore the drivers of Islamophobia. What predicts lower or higher anti-Mus- As women shattered the glass ceiling of Congress in lim views? And with whom do Muslims find the greatest record numbers, the #MeToo movement continued support? to race forward, bringing attention to sexual miscon- duct long normalized and left unacknowledged in the We conclude our study with a set of data-driven rec- corporate sector, media, and government. It also ommendations for those working to elevate American brought attention to sexual misconduct within religious Muslim civic engagement and for those combating American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 3
Islamophobia. In light of the horrific massacre of 50 wor- Muslims Who Vote Overwhelmingly Favor shippers in a mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand, on Democrats March 15, 2019, by a man reciting every anti-Muslim Our findings show that Muslims directed their frustration trope in our index, these recommendations seem ever with the administration at the polls and voted overwhelm- more urgent. ingly in favor of Democratic candidates. Three-quarters of Muslims (76%) cast their ballots for Democrats, a trend We hope this report continues to inform our national mirrored among the Jewish Americans (69%) we sur- conversation with the voices of ordinary people. veyed, as well as Black (91%) and Hispanic Americans (66%) more generally. Among Muslims, support for Executive Summary Democrats remains consistent with age as opposed to the general public where it decreases: 83% of Muslims In January 2019, the Institute for Social Policy and aged 50 and older vote for Democrats in contrast with Understanding conducted a survey of American 44% of their generational peers in the general public. Muslims, Jews, Catholics, Protestants, including white Evangelicals, and the non-affiliated, to examine their Though Growing, Muslim Voter views on politics, religion, sexual and religious violence, Registration and Engagement Still Lags minorities, and other faith groups. Our findings show Behind Other Groups that American Muslims are multi-dimensional; they Despite being higher than in 2016 (60%), only 73% of share many characteristics with other faith groups and eligible Muslim voters report being registered to do so, non-affiliated Americans and, yet, are unique. They are the least likely in our 2019 sample than other groups disappointed with some aspects of their country and (85%-95%).1 Overall, Muslims’ voter eligibility is 80%, express hope in others. which is less than the other groups in our survey and this gap may persist because 47% of American Muslims Muslims Least Likely to Approve of are not native-born. The voter registration gap is most President but More Likely to Express pronounced among Muslim young adults (aged 18-29), Optimism with the Direction of the only 63% of whom report being registered to vote com- Country pared to 85% of their peers in the general population. We found that only 16% of American Muslims approve of Muslim voter engagement further suffers due to the in- the job Donald Trump is doing as President, the lowest of consistency of Muslim voters who express their inten- all groups surveyed. While other groups tallied between tions to vote (83%) but show up at the polls in fewer 24% and 50%, the majority of white Evangelicals (73%) numbers (59%), either due to lack of choice of candi- reported approval of the President and highlighted dates or distrust in the electoral system. Despite these a deep rift between the two religious groups. Among large gaps, Muslims contested in the 2018 midterm Muslims, white Muslims (29%) and those who are 30-49 elections in unprecedented numbers, recording as many years old (19%) are more likely to approve of Donald as 131 wins at local and state levels, and securing three Trump than all others. Congressional positions. Despite the low opinion of the performance of the Muslim Local Engagement with Elected President, 33% of Muslims conveyed optimism about Officials a Predictor of Voter Participation the future trajectory of the nation, more than any other More Broadly faith group or unaffiliated Americans surveyed. While We found that some expected factors such as higher white Muslims (43%) are more likely than Black Muslims income and older age, as well as religious attendance as (20%) to be upbeat, Muslim women (70%) are more previously reported in ISPU polls, hold true as predictors likely than Muslim men (58%) to be pessimistic about of voter participation for Muslims as they do for other the future. We find Muslims’ overall positivity remarkable Americans. However, in the case of Muslims, contact- given the fact that all other groups surveyed registered ing a local elected official emerged as the single stron- a sharp decline in their satisfaction with the way things gest determinant of voter participation. We also found are going in the country. We posit that Muslim and that Muslims are the group least likely to communicate Democratic gains in the 2018 midterm elections and the with local and federal elected officials, with only 20% of continued resistance to Trump’s anti-immigration poli- Muslim men and 21% of Muslim women reporting com- cies are responsible for Muslims’ confidence. munication with a local official. American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 4
Support for Muslim Ban Does Little to that reflect private spirituality and lower on the one that Help Candidates with Most Voters requires public risk, likely because of the threat of reli- gious discrimination, which Muslims continue to report Sixty-one percent of Muslims, 53% of Jews, and 56% at higher frequencies (62%) than any other faith group of non-affiliated Americans report that a candidate’s (43% or less). endorsement of the Muslim ban would decrease their support for that individual. While white Evangelicals In comparison, white Evangelicals are high both on (44%) are the most likely of any group to say a candi- private and public dimensions of religiosity, with faith date’s endorsement of the Muslim ban would increase playing a central role in their personal lives as well as their support of that candidate, a majority of even this what they wish to see in their society. Jews are low on faith group saw the issue as either decreasing their private measures of spiritual engagement such as fre- support (19%) of such a candidate or making no dif- quency of religious services, but higher on public asser- ference (37%). The plurality of the general public (44%) tion of their faith identity and a sense of a linked fate with say a candidate’s endorsement of a Muslim ban would co-religionists. decrease their support, while 21% say it would increase their support. Thirty-four percent of the general public say it would make no difference to them whether or not Muslims Most Likely to Report Religious, a candidate supported the Muslim ban. Gender, and Sectarian Discrimination As reported in our prior polls, Muslims are the most likely Muslims Profess More Private Religious group to report experiencing religious discrimination Devotion, Less Public Religious (62%). Muslim women report higher levels of discrimina- Assertiveness tion (68%) than men (55%). Second to Muslims, 43% of Jews report religious discrimination, while 36% of white We found that Muslims (71%) and white Evangelicals Evangelicals report experiencing it. With 40% register- (82%) are the most likely to say religion is very important ing experiences of sectarianism, Muslims are the group in their daily life, more than all other faith groups and most likely to have sectarian discrimination within their non-affiliated Americans. Despite facing higher levels ranks as compared to other groups surveyed. of religious discrimination than other groups, Muslims hold steady to their faith. Forty-three percent of Muslims Our data show that 41% of Muslim women experience attend religious services once a week or more, on par gender discrimination from within their community, the with Protestants (49%) but less frequently than white highest of any group examined. However, the misogyny Evangelicals (64%). More Muslims (78% of men and they suffer from the public at large is still greater at 52%. 79% of women) report satisfaction with the way things Muslim women are also more likely to report gender dis- are done in their house of worship than the general crimination from the public than are any other group of public (62%). women surveyed (36% or less). Muslims are more likely to be privately devout—derive meaning and purpose from their faith (63%) and draw Though Unwanted Sexual Advances from on their faith to forgive someone who has hurt them a Faith Leader Equally Prevalent Across deeply (54%)—than all groups surveyed except white Communities, Muslims Most Likely Group Evangelicals (75% and 63%). to Report to Law Enforcement Unwanted sexual advances from a faith leader are However, Muslims are less likely to publicly assert equally prevalent among all groups we surveyed. All their religious beliefs such as take unpopular stands groups are also equally likely to report such advances to to defend their faith (36%) or wish to use their faith as members of the community. However, Muslim victims of a source of law (33%) than white Evangelicals (58% sexual crimes are most likely to speak up against perpe- and 54%). Muslims (55%) have a sense of linked fate,2 trators and more likely (54%) to involve law enforcement that is, to believe that their fate is tied to that of their in such matters than any other group in our study. coreligionists, as much as Protestants (55%) and white Evangelicals (57%), but less than Jews (69%). Though it can be reasonably expected that greater personal Islamophobia Index Inches Up spiritual engagement would translate into greater public A measure of the level of public endorsement of five neg- assertion of faith, Muslims are highest on dimensions ative stereotypes associated with Muslims in America, American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 5
our Islamophobia Index inched up from 24 in 2018 to significantly linked to a lower score on the Islamophobia 28 in 2019. The Islamophobia Index calculates reported Index (less Islamophobia), though the correlation is levels of agreement with the following statements: weak. Notably, respondents’ nativity, sex, age, educa- A. Most Muslims living in the United States are tion, and religiosity have no bearing on Islamophobia. more prone to violence than others. B. Most Muslims living in the United States discriminate against women. Methodology C. Most Muslims living in the United States are ISPU created the questionnaire for this study and com- hostile to the United States. missioned Social Science Research Solutions (SSRS) to D. Most Muslims living in the United States are conduct a nationally representative survey of self-iden- less civilized than other people. tified Muslims and Jews and a nationally representative E. Most Muslims living in the United States are survey of the general American public. Researchers ex- partially responsible for acts of violence carried amined the views of self-identified Protestants (parsing out by other Muslims. out white Evangelicals), Catholics, and the non-affiliated. White Evangelicals are routinely studied in religion survey Jews and Hispanic Americans Are Most research as a separate subgroup due to their unique Favorable Toward Muslims and White social and political characteristics (see, for example, Evangelicals Least surveys by the Public Religion Research Institute [PRRI] Of all faith groups apart from Muslims, Jews score the and studies by the Pew Research Center). In our analy- lowest on the Islamophobia Index. A majority (53%) of sis, we make comparisons among age and racial groups. Jews report having positive views of Muslims with 13% For race comparisons among the Muslim sample, we do reporting negative views. In contrast, white Evangelicals not include Hispanic Americans in the racial compari- score the highest on the Islamophobia Index with as sons due to small sample size. In the general public, we many as 44% holding unfavorable opinions about exclude Asian Americans due to small samples sizes. A Muslims, which is twice as many as those who hold fa- total of 2,376 interviews were conducted. ISPU owns all vorable opinions (20%). data and intellectual property related to this study. Analyzed by race, Hispanic Americans are five times as SSRS conducted the survey of Muslims, Jews, and the likely to hold favorable opinions of Muslims as they are to general population for ISPU from January 8-25, 2019. have negative attitudes (51% vs. 10%). In comparison, SSRS interviewed 804 Muslim and 360 Jewish respon- white Americans are almost as likely to hold favorable as dents. The sample for the study came from multiple unfavorable opinions (33% vs. 26%), whereas 40% have sources. SSRS telephoned a sample of households that no opinion. Black Americans are seven times as likely were prescreened as being Muslim or Jewish in SSRS’s to hold positive opinions (35%) as negative views (5%) weekly national omnibus survey of 1,000 randomly se- of Muslims, but the majority report having no opinion lected respondents (n = 648) and purchased a listed (51%). sample for Muslim and Jewish households in both land- line (from Experian) and cell phone (from Consumer Cell) samples, sample providers that flags specific character- Knowing a Muslim Linked to Lower istics for each piece of a sample (n = 133). In an effort Islamophobia to supplement the number of Muslim interviews that Our analysis reveals that knowing a Muslim personally is SSRS was able to complete in the given time frame and among several protective factors against Islamophobia. with the amount of available prescreened sample, SSRS When a Muslim is a close friend, Islamophobia is further employed a web-based survey and completed the final reduced. We found that three in four Jews know a 383 Muslim subject interviews via an online survey with Muslim, about half of the general public know a Muslim, samples from a non-probability panel (a panel made but only about one in three among white Evangelicals up of respondents deliberately [not randomly] chosen know an American who is Muslim. to represent the demographic makeup of the commu- nity in terms of age, race, and socio-economics). SSRS Other predictors of lower Islamophobia include used their sample in the probability panel to adminis- Democratic leanings; knowledge about Islam; favor- ter the general population portion of the survey (n = able views of Jews, Black Americans, and feminists; 1,108). These are respondents who have completed a and higher income. Negative views of Evangelicals are survey through the SSRS omnibus and signed up for the American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 6
probability panel. In an effort to balance out the general (24%) and Jewish (27%) sentiments are slightly more population probability panel, SSRS interviewed 104 positive than Muslims’ (16%), yet on the lower end of non-Internet respondents through the omnibus survey, the spectrum. Catholic views (37%) hover right around which uses a fully replicated, stratified, single-stage, the general public average (39%), and Protestants’ random-digit-dialing (RDD) sample of landline tele- are slightly higher (50%). By far and away, white phone households and randomly generated cell phone Evangelicals (73%) are the group most likely to approve numbers. Sample telephone numbers are computer- of the President. As in previous years, the data illustrate generated and loaded into online sample files accessed a schism between Muslims and white Evangelicals re- directly by the computer-assisted telephone interviewing garding the performance of Donald Trump as President. (CATI) system. Muslims Least Likely to Approve of President’s For the Muslim and Jewish samples, the data are Performance weighted to: 1) adjust for the fact that not all survey respondents were selected with the same probability, 90% and 2) account for non-response across known demo- 80% 73% graphic parameters for the Jewish and Muslim adult 70% populations. The survey has a margin of error at a 95% 60% confidence level of Muslims ±4.9% and Jews ±7.6%. 50% 50% 37% 39% 40% For the general population sample, the data are weight- 30% 27% 24% ed to provide nationally representative and projectable 20% 16% estimates of the adult population 18 years of age and 10% older. The weighting process takes into account the 0% Muslim Jewish Catholic Protestant White Non- General disproportionate probabilities of household and respon- Evangelical Affiliated Public dent selection due to the number of separate telephone FIGURE 1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job landlines and cell phones answered by respondents and as president? (% Approve shown) Base: Total respondents, 2019 their households, as well as the probability associated with the random selection of an individual household member. The survey has a margin of error at a 95% Last year, we reported a tumble in Muslim’s rating of the confidence level of general population ±3.6%. U.S. President’s job performance (from 78% approval of President Barack Obama’s job performance in 2016 to For more details on polling methodology, visit www.ispu. 13% approval of President Donald Trump’s performance org/poll. in 2018). Approval ratings in 2019 remain low (Figure 2). Muslim Approval of President’s Job Has Results Declined Sharply Since 2016 CIVIC ENGAGEMENT 90% 80% 78% 70% Muslims Least Likely to Approve of 60% President and as Likely as Jews to Have 50% Voted Democrat in the Midterms 40% 30% Two years into the Trump presidency, American Muslims 20% 16% 13% (16%) are the least likely group to report a favorable view 10% of Donald Trump as President (Figure 1). Opinions about 0% 2016 2018 2019 the current President have held broadly similar to those reported in our survey in 2018. On the whole, approval FIGURE 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way [Barack Obama / Donald Trump] is handling his job as president? (% Approve shown) Base: Total Muslim respondents, has inched up minimally higher across all groups but 2016, 2018, 2019 inter-group differences have held steady. Non-affiliated American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 7
Muslim Dissatisfaction with President Trump This hopefulness is still decisively lower than 2016 Varies by Race and Age (Figure 4), but suggests that in spite of their low opinion of Donald Trump, American Muslims are likely buoyed Within the Muslim community, approval of President by two important developments: historic Muslim gains Trump varies along age and racial lines: White Muslims in the 2018 midterm elections and pushback against (29%) and Muslims who are 30-49 years old (19%) are Trump’s immigration policies. Conversely, satisfaction more likely to view Donald Trump positively compared among white Evangelicals in our sample fell from 50% in to Muslims who are Arab (12%), Asian (16%), and Black 2018 to 24% in 2019. (7%), and Muslims aged 50 and older (8%). Muslims’ approval for Donald Trump decreases as age increases, Muslim Satisfaction with Direction of Country which is contrary to the trend that prevails among the Has Declined Since 2016 general population. Nineteen percent of Muslims in the 30-49 year old age bracket report approval of Donald Trump’s job as president, while only 8% of Muslims aged 70% 63% 50 and older feel the same way. Among the general 60% public, Donald Trump is approved of by 37% of those 50% 41% aged 30-49 and approval grows to 46% in the 50 and 40% 33% older group. 27% 30% 20% Despite Dissatisfaction with the President, Some Muslims Express Optimism with the 10% Direction of the Country 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 Surprisingly, despite the large portion expressing nega- tive perception of the current administration, a degree of FIGURE 4: Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today? (% Satisfied shown) Base: Total Muslim respondents, 2016, 2017, optimism persists in the American Muslim community: 2018, 2019 33% of Muslims report being satisfied with the current direction of the nation, more than Jews and the general public (both 19%), Protestants (20%), and non-affiliated Fielding this survey (January 8-25, 2019) in the wake Americans (13%). Muslims (33%) are statistically similar of the 2018 midterm elections and during the govern- to Catholics (25%) and white Evangelicals (24%) in ex- ment shutdown of 2018-2019 has uniquely captured pressing hopefulness. the pulse of Americans. The longest federal govern- ment shutdown in U.S. history, which spanned from Our data also suggest that all faith groups and non-affiliat- December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, showcased ed Americans show a decline in their satisfaction with the the stiff resistance to Donald Trump’s immigration poli- trajectory of the country in 2019 vs. 2018, except Muslims, cies and border wall proposal. The events that reaffirm who have maintained their stance (33% vs. 27%). Muslims’ faith in the future of the nation are likely the reason white Evangelicals, President Donald Trump’s All Faith Groups, Except Muslims, Declined in staunchest supporters, in our sample have reported Satisfaction with Direction of Country Over Past Year the most significant decrease in satisfaction “with the way things are going in this country” of all groups sur- White Evangelical 50% veyed. While white Evangelicals’ optimism reduced by nearly half from 50% approval in 2018 to 24% in 2019, 40% Protestants reported a 15 point decrease over 2018 Protestant (35% vs. 20%) and the general public reported a 10 Catholic point reduction (29% vs. 19%). 30% Jewish Muslim To be clear, positive sentiment about the country’s direc- 20% Non-Affiliated tion within the Muslim community is not uniform. White (43%) and Asian (41%) Muslims are twice as likely to 10% be satisfied than Black Muslims (20%). However, Black 2018 2019 Americans who are Muslim report satisfaction at much FIGURE 3: Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in higher levels than their non-Muslim counterparts in our this country today? (% Satisfied shown) Base: Total respondents, 2018, 2019 sample (3%), as do white Muslims compared with white American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 8
Americans in the general public (43% vs. 20%). It is Muslims Least Likely to Be Registered to Vote worth noting that roughly a third (36%) of Black Muslims in 2019 compared to just 2% of Black Americans overall were born outside of the U.S. In our research, immigrants are 95% 100% 92% 94% 94% often more optimistic about the direction of the country 90% 85% 90% than native-born Americans. Muslim women (70%) are 80% 73% more likely to be dissatisfied about the country’s trajec- 70% tory than men (58%), though Muslim women’s reported 60% satisfaction is up from 17% in 2018 to 28% in 2019, 50% 40% possibly reflective of encouraging recent events. 30% 20% Though Growing, Muslim Voter 10% Registration Still Lags Behind Other 0% Muslim Jewish Catholic Protestant White Non- General Groups Evangelical Affiliated Public FIGURE 5: Are you registered to vote at your present address or not? (% Yes shown) Muslims Least Likely to Be Eligible and Base: Total respondents who can legally vote in the U.S., 2019 Registered to Vote Though the vast majority of Muslims (80%) are eligible to vote, they are the least likely to be so among all faith Overall, voter registration among Muslims has main- groups and non-affiliated Americans in our survey. Since tained an upward trajectory since 2016 (60%) and 2017 roughly half (52%) of American Muslims are born outside (68%) (Figure 6). However, despite concerted get-out- of the United States, a significant subset of the group the-vote efforts ahead of November 2018 midterm elec- may not have naturalized yet. In comparison, 92% of tions, the number of registered Muslim voters has re- Jews, 94% of Catholics, 97% of Protestants, 99% of mained statistically similar in 2019 (73%) to what it was white Evangelicals, 97% of non-affiliated Americans, in 2018 (75%). Roughly a quarter of American Muslims and 96% of the general population are eligible to vote. remain disengaged at the ballot box. Voter eligibility among Muslims has remained relatively stable since 2016. More Muslims Registered to Vote Than in 2016 Among those eligible to vote, Muslims (73%) are still less likely than all other groups to be registered to vote. Other 90% groups tally from 85% (non-affiliated Americans) to 95% (Jews). The gap is most pronounced in the 18-29 age 80% 75% 73% group where Muslim voter registration (63%) is a full 22 68% 70% points behind the same age group among the general 60% population (85%). Older Muslims’ (88%) registration 60% patterns are similar to the general population (93%). Muslims of all races are equally likely to be registered to 50% vote, as are Muslim men and women. 40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 FIGURE 6: Are you registered to vote at your present address or not? (% Yes shown) Base: Total Muslim respondents who can legally vote in the U.S., 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 Muslim Voters’ Intentions to Vote Inconsistent with Their Actions In our 2018 survey, 83% of Muslims expressed their intention to vote in the 2018 midterm elections, while our survey in 2019 found that only 59% actually did. In comparison, 82% among the general public in our sample reported casting their ballots in the 2018 mid- terms. Similarly in 2016, 81% of Muslims intended to American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 9
vote in the 2016 presidential elections, while only 61% of races contested (141) were at the local level, though did (Figure 7). Although some of the discrepancy may Muslims also competed for county, state-level, and be attributed to the social desirability of the appearance Congressional positions, as well as judiciary offices at of being a voter, for American Muslims, lack of engage- several levels. ment in the electoral process also signals disenchant- ment with available candidates and the electoral system. Muslim Young Adults’ Voting Trails Behind In 2017, 42% of Muslims expressed their dissatisfac- Peers in General Public tion with the candidates or lack of trust in the system, which can explain resistance to mobilization efforts and Political engagement varies across age brackets among the persistent gaps between word and action when it all groups surveyed, with greater participation by older comes to the ballot. voters; Muslims are no different. However, Muslim young adults’ participation in the midterms is sluggish in con- Not All Muslims Who Intend to Vote Show up trast with their generational peers in the general popula- tion (52% vs. 72%) as well as compared to their elders at the Polls in the community (71%). In a record-breaking year when 100% midterm voter turnout was highest since 1914, this 90% 81% 83% apathy may concern those working to increase Muslim 80% political engagement. Our findings, therefore, highlight 70% 60% 61% 59% the need to promote civic engagement among young 50% Muslims. In the future, the importance assigned to a 40% Muslim voting bloc will rely heavily on the voting habits 30% of this cadre of Muslim voters. Community activists and 20% 10% change makers have room to increase the education of 0% 2016 Presidential Election 2018 Midterm Elections young adult Muslims to encourage and sustain mean- ingful political engagement in the long run. Intended to Vote Actually Voted FIGURE 7: Do you plan to vote in the 2016 presidential election? Did you vote in the Though formal political activity appears to have pla- 2016 presidential election? Do you plan to vote in the November 2018 midterm elections? Did you vote in the November 2018 midterm elections? Base: Total Muslim teaued among young Muslims, they continue to be respondents who can legally vote in the U.S., 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 active in their local communities and engaged in domes- tic issues. ISPU’s American Muslim Poll in 2017 report- The story of Muslim participation in American politics ed that young adult Muslims show greater support for is multifaceted. While some Muslims withdraw from it, social justice initiatives such as Black Lives Matter than others seek to change the political landscape of their the general public (71% vs. 53%). Forty-four percent of country. The 2018 midterm elections witnessed historic Muslim youth recounted volunteering to help neighbors numbers of Muslim candidates running for public office. solve a community problem, which is on par with youth That year, 23 Muslims declared candidacy for statewide among Jews, Catholics, Protestants, white Evangelicals, or national office. Of the seven who won primaries, four and the general public demonstrating that they are just won in the general elections. Two of the three elected as invested in their local communities as their genera- Muslim members of Congress are women, a first for tional peers. the U.S. House of Representatives. Keith Ellison, who was the first Muslim to serve in Congress, became the Muslims and Jews Most Likely to Have Voted Minnesota Attorney General, the first Muslim to occupy for a Democrat in 2018 Midterms a state-level elected position. Our data suggest that Muslims channeled their disap- proval of the administration through their vote in the According to an estimate by Emgage, an American 2018 midterm elections. More than three out of four Muslim civil rights group, about 100 Muslim candidates Muslims (76%) who cast ballots in the 2018 midterms filed paperwork to run for various public offices in the voted for a Democrat, while only 13% voted for a 2018 midterm elections, the highest number since the Republican. Across faith groups and those unaffiliated, year 2001. Over the years 2016-2018, 276 American Muslims are more likely to vote Democratic than any Muslims are reported to have run for public office, of other group surveyed except Jews (69%), who vote whom 131 won. Thirty-six percent of these candidates similarly (Figure 8). Muslims are about four times more were women and 64% were men. The highest number likely to vote Democratic than white Evangelicals (76% American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 10
vs. 17%). Favoring Democratic candidates is consistent Muslim participation. Unsurprisingly, belonging to a with the trend of three-fourths of Muslims’ self-identifica- high income bracket and older age group is linked to a tion as Democrats or Democratic-leaning in their political greater likelihood of voting in midterm elections, which beliefs. It is no surprise, then, that over 90% of American mirrors trends in the general public. Muslim candidates in the 2018 midterm elections are reported to have contested on the Democratic platform. Remarkably, the level of education attained does not impact voter participation for Muslims, though a college Muslims and Jews Most Likely to Have Voted degree is the strongest determinant of participation for for a Democrat in 2018 Midterms the general public. 90% Mosque attendance stands out as a predictor of civic 80% 76% engagement, as in past surveys. For Muslims, associa- 69% 70% 66% tion with their local faith community translates into direct 60% 50% 52% participation in midterm elections. The same holds true 50% 42% for the general public, where weekly attendance of a reli- 40% gious service is also linked to voting in midterm elections. 30% 20% 17% Contacting a local elected official, but not a federal 10% official, emerged as the strongest determinant of midterm 0% Muslim Jewish Catholic Protestant White Non- General participation among Muslims. On average, Muslims who Evangelical Affiliated Public contact local officials are 25% more likely to vote in FIGURE 8: If you voted for a Member of Congress this November, did you vote for a midterm elections. While it is not surprising that those Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? (% Who voted Democrat shown) Base: Total respondents who can legally vote in the U.S. and voted in the November who make the effort to contact their elected official are 2018 midterm elections, 2019 also more likely to vote in the midterms, it is noteworthy that this only becomes significant for local officials and Older Muslims Lean More Democratic Than not federal officials. This suggests that when Muslims Generational Peers in General Public are engaged locally, not just at the federal level, they While Muslims of all ages are likely to vote for Democratic are more likely to participate overall, even in state and candidates, those aged 50 and older are nearly twice as federal elections. likely to vote for Democrats than the same age group among the general public (83% vs. 44%). As with the Income, Age, Mosque Attendance, and Local general public, party alignment varies by race in the Political Engagement Predict Voter Muslim community. White Muslims (25%) are more likely Participation Among Muslims than Asian Muslims (9%) to vote Republican and about six times as likely to vote Republican as Black Muslims (4%). Uniquely, Muslims’ voting pattern diverges from HIGHER VOTER PARTICIPATION the general public—as they age, the general popula- Strong Predictor Moderate Predictor tion leans more Republican whereas Muslim Americans continue to identify as strongly Democratic. Among the general public, support for Democrats falls from 70% among young adults (18-29) to 56% among middle- aged Americans (30-49) and further to 44% in the oldest age group (50+). Among Muslims, 75% of young adults and those of middle age vote Democratic, and 83% of Contacted Local High Income Over the Age Attends Religious those who are 50 and older report the same. Elected Official in of 50 Service Weekly Past Year Muslim Local Engagement with Elected FIGURE 9: Did you vote in the November 2018 midterm elections? Base: Total Muslim respondents who can legally vote in the U.S., 2019 Officials a Predictor of Voter Participation We used linear regression and held key variables constant (including demographics, political party identification, and political ideology) to isolate the effect of each variable of More Broadly interest. For the effect size of the variable, “Strong” in this case represents a shift in the predicted probability of a midterm vote by 20% or more and “Moderate” indicates a shift What factors predict American Muslims’ voting in the between 10% and 20%. midterms? Fielding this survey soon after the 2018 midterm elections has given insights into patterns of American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 11
Muslims Less Likely to Communicate with 50 and older lag behind their age groups in the general Elected Officials public (19% vs. 32% and 22% vs. 38%). Our data indicate that Muslims are less likely than all Given the strong influence of involvement in local politics other groups surveyed to communicate with federal on midterm participation and the low levels of Muslims’ and local elected officials. Muslims are half as likely as involvement in the same, there is an opportunity for Jews and Protestants to contact federal elected officials Muslims to build local relationships. Investment in their (17% vs. 39%), and similarly lag behind Catholics (27%), local faith community and the broader public, as well white Evangelicals (33%), the non-affiliated (32%), and as involvement in local politics can increase Muslims’ the general public (31%). While Muslims are about as buy-in and engagement at the national level. likely to engage a local official as a federal official, they are less likely than all other faith groups and non-affiliat- ed Americans to contact local elected officials as well. Support for Muslim Ban Does Little to Only 20% of Muslims report communicating with a city Help Candidates With Most Voters or state official in contrast with more than one-third of In effect since 2017 in various renditions, President Jews (38%), Protestants (39%), and white Evangelicals Donald Trump’s controversial executive order to impose (35%). Among Catholics and non-affiliated Americans, travel restrictions and ban citizens from five predomi- 29% and 30%, respectively, engaged with local officials. nantly Muslim countries has been widely debated. Immigration remains in the spotlight in the political arena Muslim women (20%) are just as likely as Muslim men and candidates support or oppose the so-called “Muslim (21%) to contact their local officials, as are most women ban” to indicate their political leaning. How significant, if and men of various faith groups in our survey. However, at all, is a candidate’s endorsement of the Muslim ban in some instances, men and women’s engagement to voters? patterns differ from each other. This is the case among white Evangelicals and Jews. For white Evangelicals, • Our data reveal that a majority of Muslims, Jews, men are far more likely to be involved than women at and non-affiliated Americans say a candidate’s the local (52% vs. 23%) as well as federal level (48% support for the Muslim ban would be reason to vs. 22%). On the other hand, among Jews, women decrease their support for this individual’s run for (47%) lead men (31%) in federal engagement. Muslim elected office: 61% of Muslims, 53% of Jews, and women being as civically engaged as Muslim men is not 56% of non-affiliated Americans hold this view. shocking; our 2017 American Muslim survey found that • While white Evangelicals (44%) are the most likely Muslim women’s donation spending, support for social of any group to say a candidate’s endorsement justice initiatives, and reporting of discrimination out- of the Muslim ban would increase their support of paces Muslim men. that candidate. However, a majority of even this faith group, Trump’s strongest supporters, say a Muslims aged 50 and older (23%) are more likely than candidate’s support for such a policy would either Muslims aged 18-29 (16%) and those aged 30-49 decrease their support (19%) or would make no (14%) to contact a federal elected official. This trend is difference (37%). similar to the general public where a greater percentage of older age groups are more likely to contact federal • The general public is twice as likely to say a officials. These data reflect the greater overall voter candidate’s endorsement of a Muslim Ban would engagement among older Muslims as compared to decrease their support (44%) as increase it (21%), younger coreligionists. However, middle-aged Muslims’ with 34% saying it would make no difference. engagement is significantly lower than that of their gen- erational peers in the general public (14% vs. 28%). Even the most engaged Muslims in the 50+ group fall behind their peers (23% vs. 37%) when it comes to con- tacting a federal official. Among Muslims, white Muslims (25%) are most likely to get in touch with a federal of- ficial. Engagement with a local elected official is similar across age groups among Muslims, ranging from 19% to 22%. Once again, Muslims who are middle-aged or American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 12
Endorsement of Muslim Ban Does Little to discrimination (55% of men vs. 68% of women). Though Help Candidates with Most Voters Muslim women continue to experience greater religious discrimination than all other groups studied—findings that remain the same in 2019 as in previous years—it INCREASE SUPPORT DECREASE SUPPORT NO DIFFERENCE has not distanced them from their faith. Muslim 8% 61% 27% The percentage of Muslims who hold religion very im- Jewish 15% 53% 30% portant to their daily lives has held steady since 2016. Catholic 18% 41% 41% Muslims as Likely to Attend Religious Services 34% 33% 33% Protestant as Protestants White Evangelical 44% 19% 37% As with previous studies (ISPU poll 2016-2018, Gallup 2009, Pew 2011 and 2016), Muslims are on par with Non-Affililated 12% 56% 29% Protestants in religious attendance—43% of Muslims General Public 21% 44% 34% and 49% of Protestants report attending a religious service once a week or more. In our survey, Muslims’ and Protestants’ religious attendance is greater than FIGURE 10: Does a candidate's support of President Trump's travel ban on citizens from five predominantly Muslim countries, a policy sometimes referred to as the Jews’ (23%) and Catholics’ (27%), but less than that of “Muslim ban,” increase your support, decrease your support, or not make a white Evangelicals (64%). difference to your support for this candidate? Base: Total respondents, 2019 Uniquely among Muslims, religious service attendance does not differ by age. In the general public, those aged These findings suggest that immigration and tourism 50 and over are more likely to attend religious services from the countries included in the Muslim ban are not a once a week or more frequently than those in younger major concern for a majority of Americans. Endorsement age brackets. As such, Muslim 18-29 year olds (31%) for this controversial Trump policy is more likely to hurt are more likely to attend weekly religious services than than help candidates with most voters. their peers in the general public (18%). Muslim women are less likely than men to attend a weekly service (29% vs. 55%), explained partially by the fact that traditional FAITH AND COMMUNITY Islamic teachings require men to attend Friday congre- gational prayer and make it optional for women. Muslims Profess More Private Religious Devotion, Less Public Religious It is worth noting, however, that Muslim men and women Assertiveness are equally likely to say they are “satisfied with the way Muslims More Likely to Hold Religion Very things are done at their house of worship” (78% of men Important Than All Other Groups, Except and 79% of women). Overall, Muslims (78%) report being White Evangelicals more satisfied with the way their houses of worship are run as compared to Catholics (63%) and the general Muslims (71%) are far more likely to say religion is “very public (62%). important to their daily lives” than Jews and Catholics (both 35%), Protestants (61%), or the general public Muslims aged 50 and older are more likely to be satis- (36%). The importance of faith to Muslims is only sur- fied (89%) with their house of worship than young adults passed by white Evangelicals (82%) in our survey. (18-29) and middle-aged (30-49) Muslims (both 76%). It Noticeably, though white Evangelicals and Muslims is noteworthy that young adults (52%) and middle-aged diverge in their views in most of our findings, the two Americans (60%) in the general public are also less likely groups stand out as the most devoted to their faith to express satisfaction with their places of worship than amidst a sea of growing secularism. their elders ages 50+ (68%). Opinions among Muslims are similar across race. Muslim women and men are equally likely to say reli- gion is important to them, despite the greater social cost that Muslim women incur for their faith identity in the form of a greater frequency of reported religious American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 13
Muslims Profess More Private Religious b. Your religion should be a source of American law Devotion, Less Public Religious Assertiveness but not the only source. We aimed to measure not only outward religious prac- c. Your religion should NOT be a source of tice, but the degree to which faith animated one’s inner American law. reality. We designed a section of our survey to gauge private and public spiritual engagement. Two survey Muslims (33%) are less likely than white Evangelicals questions intended to measure private religious engage- (54%) to say they want their religion to be a source of ment and three captured public religiosity. American law but not the only source. Muslims are on par with Catholics (28%), Protestants (39%), and the Religion in Private Life general public (29%) to hold this view. All these groups are more likely than Jews (19%) and non-affiliated We asked survey participants to indicate how much they Americans (10%) to agree (Figure 11). agreed or disagreed with the following statement: This finding confirms our hypothesis that a group’s wish “Because of my religious faith, I have meaning and to link religion to law would mirror the importance of re- purpose in my life.” ligion to them. These data suggest that people who see their faith as an important part of their personal life also This question is a measure of the meaning one draws want to see their values reflected in the laws of the land. from their religion. We expected this dimension of per- Muslims are not unique in this regard, nor are they the sonal spirituality to closely track with the importance of group most prone to this view. religion reported by groups overall, and it does. Once again, Muslims (63%) are more likely than Jews (33%), Within the Muslim community, Arabs (70%) are most Catholics (37%), Protestants (54%), and the non-affiliat- likely to see no role for their faith in American law, while ed (6%) to strongly agree with the statement. However, other age and racial groups do not differ in their re- white Evangelicals are the group most likely to strongly sponses. Among the general public, Black Americans agree (75%). Among Muslims, all ages and races are (25%) are the most likely to see a role for their faith as equally likely to find meaning and purpose through re- the main source of American law. ligion. In contrast, in the general public, those aged 50 and older as well as Black Americans are more likely to White Evangelicals Most Likely to Say Their report the same. Religion Should Be a Source of American Law Respondents also reported how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: Muslim 12% 33% 51% “Because of my religious faith, I have forgiven people Jewish 8% 19% 71% who have hurt me deeply.” Catholic 5% 28% 66% This question is a measure of the power of faith to Protestant 17% 39% 42% overcome vengeance and ego. We found that Muslims 27% (54%) and white Evangelicals (63%) are most likely to White Evangelical 17% 54% “strongly agree” that they have forgiven someone who 10% 87% Non-Affiliated has hurt them deeply because of their faith, counter- ing the popular trope that Islam teaches vengeance and General Public 9% 29% 62% Christianity forgiveness. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Main Source of Law Some Source of Law Not Source of Law Religion in Public Life FIGURE 11: I am going to read you a few statements, please tell me which one comes Respondents were asked to choose one of the following closer to your point of view: Your religion should be the MAIN source of American law. Your religion should be a source of American law but not the only source. Your religion should statements that is closest to their point of view: NOT be a source of American law. Base: Total respondents, 2019 a. Your religion should be the MAIN source of American law. American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 14
We asked participants to share how much they agreed Our data finds that Muslims (55%) are more likely than or disagreed with the following statement: Catholics (23%) or the general public (35%) to believe in linked fate, similar to Protestants (55%) and white “I will take unpopular stands to defend my religious faith.” Evangelicals (57%). Though less pronounced in their religious devotion compared to Muslims and white This question illustrates one’s readiness, or courage, to Evangelicals, Jews (69%) are most likely to express take a risk to defend their faith by being “unpopular.” a linked fate with their group. This sense of collective We would expect those who see their faith as impor- destiny may explain Jews’ willingness to defend their tant to them to be more likely to express this readiness faith in public even if they are not practicing it in their than others who have a more secular outlook. Some private lives. groups surprised us. We found that Muslims (56%) are less likely than Jews (72%) to agree that they will “take Of the three measures of spiritual engagement—(1) unpopular stands to defend their religious faith” despite meaning and purpose, (2) forgiveness, and (3) un- faith being more important to Muslims than it is to Jews popular stances to defend it—Muslims are highest on according to the data that measure private devotion. dimensions that reflect private spirituality and lower on In this instance, Muslims are closer to Catholics (54%) the one that requires public risk. White Evangelicals are on the spectrum, though they surpass Catholics in the high on all three, which reflects their public assertive- importance of religion in their lives (71% vs. 35% very ness and deep personal devotion. Jews are more likely important) and frequency of religious services (43% vs. than Muslims to be willing to take unpopular stances, 27% once a week or more). but lag in the dimensions that reflect personal devotion. Catholics are lower on all three, which corresponds to Unsurprisingly, given the importance of religion to their the less pronounced place religion is reported to have in group, roughly three-quarters of white Evangelicals their personal lives. (78%) agree with taking unpopular stands in defense of their faith. This is on par with Jews (72%) despite We have summarized these dimensions in the follow- the sharp difference in their reported private religious ing framework (Figure 12), placing our surveyed religious devotion. communities in one of four quadrants depending on their relative public and private levels of religious engagement. One reason that can be ascribed to Muslims’ lukewarm support for outspoken displays in defense of their faith is White Evangelicals Most Likely to Be Both the high incidence of religious discrimination. As a faith Privately and Publicly Religious group, Muslims report the most frequent religious dis- crimination (62% vs. 43% or less) and as such have the most to risk with unpopular public displays in defense High White Evangelical of their faith. Jewish PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT Finally, we asked survey participants the following question: Protestant “Do you think what happens to members of your faith Catholic Muslim community in this country will affect you personally?” This question measures what is termed “linked fate,”3 Non-Affiliated how much one feels that their personal lives are impact- Low ed by the fate of their religious community. How much Low High solidarity or shared destiny do respondents perceive with PRIVATE ENGAGEMENT their group of co-faithful? The answers would gauge a FIGURE 12: This table is a summary of the authors’ observations regarding where sense of group cohesiveness, where one’s outcomes different American faith communities land on the two dimensional spectrum of public and private religious engagement. are closely linked to those of one’s groups. For instance, those with high levels of “linked fate” would indicate that they are doing well personally if their group is doing well, and they would likewise perceive an attack on the group as being a personal threat. American Muslim Poll 2019: Predicting and Preventing Islamophobia 15
You can also read