Ambulant Intensive Care in Germany - An analysis from an M&A (mergers and acquisitions) perspective Authors: Günter Carl Hober and Martin E. Franz ...
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Ambulant Intensive Care in Germany An analysis from an M&A (mergers and acquisitions) perspective Authors: Günter Carl Hober and Martin E. Franz Oct. 2016
Contact Your contact persons for M&A For comments and additional information do not hesitate to contact the Conalliance M&A Healthcare Services Team. We are looking forward to your feedback and a mutual exchange. Günter Carl Hober Frank Herrmann Dipl.-Kfm. / MBA MBA Managing Partner und Associate Head of Healthcare M&A Europe Team Healthcare M&A Europe Tel.: +49 (89) 809 53 63-0 Tel.: +49 (89) 809 53 63-0 g.hober@conalliance.com f.herrmann@conalliance.com www.conalliance.com CONALLIANCE 2 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Important Notice No part of the report or service may be resold, circulated, lent or disclosed to non-customers without written permission of Conalliance. This information is based mainly on primary and secondary market research and own Conalliance analysis and therefore, is subject to fluctuation. Furthermore, no part may be reproduced, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, mechanical, recording or otherwise without the permission of the publisher, i.e. Conalliance. All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in this report are those of the respective analysts and M&A advisors of Conalliance. They do not necessarily reflect formal positions or views of Conalliance. The Information used and statements of fact made are not guarantees, warranties or representations as to their completeness or accuracy. Conalliance assumes no liability for any short term or long terms decision made by any clients based on analysis included in our reports (e.g. Commercial Due Diligence Reports, Market Reports, Target Screening Reports, etc.). CONALLIANCE Munich, October 2016 CONALLIANCE 3 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Please note also: Due to confidentiality reasons significant parts of this report have been blacked, edited and shortend. We kindly ask for your understanding. CONALLIANCE 4 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Part I Market Model CONALLIANCE 5 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Summary „Market Structure & Patients“ 1. The focus of this analysis is set on the ambulatory care and growth rates can be identified in Germany. ambulatory intensive care market. 6. In Germany approximately 700 thousand people are being 2. The German ambulatory intensive care market is a cared for by ambulatory care services. Only of specialized niche market embedded in a tight service these are ambulatory intensive care patients. network, 7. The patient base in the German ambulatory care market is • regulated by a social code and care legislation, as well expected to grow at an annual rate of % until 2030. The as federal state specific legislation, largest growth rate is forecasted for the ambulatory service • paid by health insurance and long term care insurance patient base. • Serviced by medical and therapeutical service 8. The number of ambulatory care patients has grown in providers and product suppliers. recent years at % annually. The number of ambulatory 3. The patient is normally referred into the system by intensive care patients has stationary acute care. . 4. The number of total inhabitants in Germany decreases 9. Experts differ strongly in their view on effective growth annually by 0.4% until 2060. The number of inhabitants rates for the future. aged 65 to 80 and 80+, who are most likely to need care, 10. grows during the same time period by 0.2% and 1.5% respectively. Hence the group of people who are potential patients grows. 11. 5. The total number of long-term care patients is The majority of ambulatory 12. care patients have a low Care Level (Care Level I represents % in 2013). However, some regional difference between CONALLIANCE 6 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Market Structure 7 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Market segmentation The focus of this Industry German health care services market analysis is set on the General markets Nursing care Hospitals Practitioners Pharmacies ambulatory care and Market Ambulatory care Stationary care ambulatory intensive Sub segments Nursing care Intensive Residential Day/night Holiday care / care market. care community care care assistance Patient target group Children Adults Elderly people Service provider company size Small Medium Large Level of specialisation Intensive Care only Intensive Care & Nursing Care Nursing Care only Indications COPD ALS Other Main legislation SGB V SGV XI SGB V + XI Admission MDK assessment and local MDK Medical doctor and MDK practitioner German nursing care market is a growing subsegment of the level of specialization (i.e. are they exclusively providing nursing German health care service industry. German nursing care care or intensive care or are they providing both). The ambulatory represents 18 % of the total German health care spending. All non care services in focus are governed by the German code of social hospital care services are encompassed in this market segment. law. (SGB V and SGB XI) Social code V regulates admission and Stationary care services such as nursing care homes are not part of payments of German health insurance, social code XI regulates the market assessed in this study. Ambulatory care services such as admission and payments of German long term care insurance. intensive care and general ambulatory care as well as day care Admission to payments of health insurance is restricted by medical services are the focus of the following analysis. Care providers can doctor prescription, access to long term care insurance payments be segmented according to their main target group (children, is regulated by an MDK assessment (“Medizinischer Dienst der adults, elderly), its company’s size (small, medium, large) and the Krankenkassen” – medical service of German health insurance). CONALLIANCE 8 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Market participants of the ambulatory intensive care service Health Long term Social Payors The German ambulatory insurance care insurance welfare intensive care market is Social a specialized niche code V market embedded in a tight service network: § § ambulatory intensive Social code V Social code XI care is • based on social code and care legislation, Patientflow as well as federal state specific legislation • paid by health Patient Hospital insurance and long This information is term care insurance • supported by medical Rehab clinic Weaning no part of the Relatives and therapeutical service providers, as publically available well as internet document • medical and pharmaceutical suppliers Medical pharma supply The patient is referred into the system by Care stationary acute care. legislation I, II, III Source: own analysis, Conalliance7732 CONALLIANCE 9 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Patients 10 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
The total number of inhabitants decreases in Germany, the age group 65+ grows The number of total Prognosis of German inhabitants (base case) by age group (in 1000) inhabitants in CAGR Germany decreases CAGR: -0,4% 2013 - 2060 annually by 0.4% until 80.766 81.435 79.230 4.364 5.915 75.964 2060. The number of 6.215 71.903 12.486 7.794 67.564 inhabitants aged 65 to 12.430 9.798 15.579 8.821 +1.5% 15.385 80 and 80+, who are 12.940 13.468 +0.2% most likely to need care, grows during the 49.232 48.775 43.595 -0.8% 40.213 37.736 same time period by 34.347 0.2% and 1.5% respectively. 14.684 14.315 13.841 12.572 11.429 10.928 -0.6% 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 under 20 years 20 to 65 years 65 to 80 years 80+ years In a base case prognosis German population is forecast to shrink 80 years of age is growing during this time at an annual rate of from 2020 onwards from 81.4 mill. inhabitants to 67.5 mill. 1.5%. inhabitants. Base case does only account for minor immigration and The likelihood to need intensive care increases strongly with age. stable birth rates. According to first findings and expert interviews, 50% of all During this period the age groups below 65 years are continuously intensive care patients are 70+ years of age. shrinking in number. The age group 65-80 is growing between 2013 and 2060 with an annual growth rate of 0.2%. The age group above CONALLIANCE Source: Bundesgesundheitsberichterstattung 11 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
A study of intensive care patients by age A study by AOK North Distribution of intensive care patients by age shows that more than % of all ambulatory intensive care patients are This data is no part of the publically available internet document 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0-19 years 20-49 years 50-69 years 70+ years Source: own analysis Conalliance 2016, Drucksache 6/2054 Landtag MV, 2012 CONALLIANCE 12 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
The number of long-term care patients is growing - ambulatory patients represent the majority of long term care patients Number of ambulatory care The total number of Total number of long-term patients with long-term care long-term care Total number of long-term care patients – split by type insurance support (by Care care patients of care Level) patients is (in mill. patients) (in thousand patients) (in thousand patients) %, ambulatory patients +XX% XX% represent % of the long term care nursing market patients. % of This data is no part of This data is no part of the publically all ambulatory the publically In total, mill. available internet patients are kids. available internet patients are document document entitled to receive The majority of ambulatory care support ambulatory care patients have a low 1999 a 2013 a 2030 e 2013 a 2013 2015 Stationary Care Level (Care Level I Adults Kids CL 0 CLII Family CL I CL III represents % in Professional ambul. serv. 2013). SOURCE A; xyz SOURCE B: xyz The number of patients financed by long term care insurance has grown for by an ambulatory care service. In 2013 only children ( %) annually between 1999 and 2013 by %. Until 2030 the increase of long were classified as care patients of the long term care insurance. term care patients is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of % Almost two thirds of ambulatory care patients had a care level I In 2013 almost % of all long term care patients were receiving classification ( %), almost % had a care level II and still % of stationary care services. % or Million patients received ambulatory care patients had care level III. ambulatory care support. % of all long term care patients were cared CONALLIANCE 13 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Development of patients cared for by ambulatory care service 1999 - 2013 Patients of ambulatory services The number of SH 14.239 ambulatory care 14.752 8.965 16.492 MV 16.751 11.504 patients has grown HB 4.545 13.817 Total # of patients cared for between 1999 and 5.373 19.060 by ambulatory services 5.927 2013 steadily in all 6.476 HH 11.480 18.437 12.202 1999: 415.199 federal states. 12.747 20.682 NI 40.421 14.480 22.863 2013: 615.846 However, some 47.398 BE 27.769 CAGR: + 2,9% regional difference can 55.764 ST 67.997 NW 93.916 14.198 BB 15.443 be identified. 17.011 18.689 94.187 Fastest growth: 19.602 22.662 106.832 23.031 29.391 Mecklenburg- 131.431 HE Vorpommern + 5,5% CAGR 29.506 TH SN 29.971 17.578 12.185 31.510 18.804 30.712 14.390 Slowest growth: 35.660 32.810 19.991 16.740 43.359 Schleswig- 44.605 RP 25.125 20.958 Holstein + 1,2% CAGR SL 5.249 5.300 BW 56.658 5.865 42.408 BY 60.529 7.230 47.083 69.776 46.684 74.852 63.331 Source: XXXXXXXXXX , 2016 1999 2003 2007 2013 CONALLIANCE 14 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Private operators care for of all ambulatory care patients The ambulatory care Total number of ambulatory long-term care patients Total number of ambulatory long-term care – split by type of service provider CHILDREN patients – split by age market is mainly serviced by private and (2013 figures) (2013 figures) non-profit providers. TOTAL: TOTAL: Two thirds of kids cared for by ambulatory care services are up to five This data is no part of This data is no part of the publically the publically years of age. available internet available internet document document Public providers New Born 6-12 years Non-profit companies Sucking babies 13-18 years Private companies 1 - 5 years >18 years The private German ambulatory operators care for % of all by provate operators is expected to be well above % of the total ambulatory care patients. The non-for-profit providers care for market. almost the same number of patiens, % of all patients. Public Of all ambulatory cared for children, sucking babies and the age providers play a minor role with only % of the total patients group 1 to 5 year olds represent patients. group. In the intensive care sector, the number of patients cared for CONALLIANCE 15 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Almost 700 thousand ambulatory care patients, intensive care patients represent % of all ambulatory care market patients In Germany Ambulatory nursing care patients vs intensive Interviews concerning number of approximately 700 care patients ambulatory intensive care patients thousand people are Interviews with clinical doctors in charge for being cared for by CAGR: % non hospital artificial ventilation suggest: ambulatory care CAGR: services. Only % • The number of new cases has grown substantially over the last few years. of these are ambulatory intensive • Expert estimations about annual cases This data is no part of differ strongly. care patients. the publically The number of available internet • Interviewees have stated new annual document cases of between 1.000 and 10.000. ambulatory care patients grows. The 2013 20161) number of ambulatory Intensive care patients Other care Patients intensive care patients also grows. Experts differ strongly All numbers about patients in the ambulatory intensive care market are registered, hence these numbers are based on various expert estimates. in their view on not statistically registered. The data about relevant patients can only be The number of patients cared for by ambulatory care services has obtained in expert interviews and by own calculation. All public statistics increased during recent years at an annual rate of %. During this time effective growth rates. end at the level of ambulatory care patients, most statistics end in the the number of intensive ambulatory care patients – based on expert year 2013. estimation – has grown at an comparable annual rate of %. The total number of ambulatory intensive care patients is not officially Source: own analysis Conalliance 2016, 2016, , 2016, expert interviews 1) Estimate based on figures „GKV Spitzenverband 2016“: % p.a. growth rate (2014-2015) of ambulatory care patients in long term care CONALLIANCE 16 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
The patient base of ambulatory care services is expected to grow at an annual rate of % The patient base in the Growth prognosis for the care market by type of care provider 2013 to german ambulatory 2030 (base case) (mill. patients) care market is expected to grow at an ambulatory service CAGR: XX% annual rate of % until 2030. The largest growth rate is forecasted for the family care CAGR: XX% This data is no part of the publically ambulatory service available internet patient base. document stationary CAGR: XX% total CAGR: XX% 2013 2030 The German long term care market is expected to grow at an growth rates, stationary care grows on market average of % annual rate of % until 2030. The highest annual growth is annually . expected in the area of professional ambulatory care (ambulatory care services) ( % annual growth rate). Family care has the lowest Source: CONALLIANCE 17 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Suppliers 18 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Summary Suppliers 1. The ambulatory care market is mainly serviced by private 6. Ambulatory care services offer on average the same and non-profit providers. services of SGB V and SGB XI, % still offer additional 2. The German ambulatory care service market grows at an assistance to care services. annual rate of %. Of the total number of (in 7. The number of residential communities for intensive care 2016) ambulatory care services, approximately are patients has seen a strong development during the last few specialized intensive care services. Child care services are a years. Between January 2015 and July 2016, the number of small niche market segment. Only % of the specialized total places available has doubled. However there are intensive care services are child care services. strong regional differences. Strongest growth rates can be 3. The total number of ambulatory care services has grown in seen in Rheinland-Palatinate and Mecklenburg- Germany between 1999 and 2013. However, the trend Vorpommern, minor reduction in places has happened in differs strongly between federal states. In some federal Bremen and Hamburg. states – such as - the total 8. number of ambulatory care services has reduced, In the total number is stable. In for instance, the number of services has grown strongly. Exceptional developments 1999-2013 with regard to the number of 9. ambulatory care service providers: • Fastest growth: % CAGR • Strongest decline: % CAGR 10. 4. In 2013 the ambulatory care service market is dominated by private providers, representing of all services. 5. There are strong differences in size between the different provider types, on average the private providers are little 11. more than half of the size (patient base) of non-for-profit providers. One quarter of ambulatory care services cares for or less patients. Mainly the larger care services have gained size since 2007. CONALLIANCE 19 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
2% of all ambulatory care services are intensive care service providers, child care ambulatory services account for 1,3% of total ambulatory care suppliers The German # of ambulatory nursing care Avg. # of patients per ambulatory care # of ambulatory nursing care service providers for CHILD ambulatory nursing care service market grows service providers CARE service provider at an annual rate of %. Of the total CAGR XX% number of CAGR XX% ambulatory care 2016: XXX Child Care services, approxi- service This data is no part of mately are This data is no part of providers the publically the publically = XXX% of available internet specialized intensive available internet total ambulatory document care services. Child document nursing care care services are a providers small niche market 2013 2016 2001 2013 2016 2013 2016 segment. Only % of Intensive care providers Child Care specialists Intensive care patients the specialized Other care providers Adult & Child Care Other care Patients intensive care services The number of ambulatory care services has grown substantially at an depend on expert estimates. Experts estimate a total number of are child care services. annual rate of % since 2013. Of the ambulatory care services ambulatory intensive care services. This represents % of the total that were registered in 2013, approximately had at least ambulatory care service market. Of these services have ambulatory intensive care patient. specialized on child care. The total number of ambulatory intensive care services is not being registered in official statistics, hence numbers about these services Source: 2016, , 2016, expert interviews 1) Estimate: patients, intensive care providers CONALLIANCE 20 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Number of ambulatory care services 1999-2013, strong regional differences # of ambulatory service companies The total number of 439 ambulatory care SH 354 398 382 402 406 services has grown in HB 126 399 438 Total # of ambulatory 407 452 German between 1999 116 113 MV services 109 and 2013. However, 111 HH 343 310 314 374 1999: 10.820 the trend differs 334 431 NI 926 343 524 567 2013: 12.745 strongly between 342 998 BE CAGR: 1,2% 1.112 federal states. In some 1.189 ST NW 1.231 481 BB 516 federal states – such 2.205 460 502 Exceptional developments 2.004 492 548 2.136 521 Fastest growth: as Saarland, Schles- 2.309 534 598 Berlin +4,4% CAGR 641 2.377 HE wig-Holstein - the total 860 TH SN 845 Highest decline: number of ambulatory 411 371 892 376 787 362 972 Saarland - 2,2% CAGR 390 901 389 1.005 care services has RP 446 1.002 411 417 1.052 451 1.066 reduced, In Hamburg the total number is SL 153 stable. In Berlin for 131 BW 1.591 115 845 BY 1.583 instance, the number 116 984 1.778 112 1.010 1.829 of services has grown 1.110 1.845 1.140 strongly. Source: Pflegereport 2016 1999 2003 2007 2011 2013 CONALLIANCE 21 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Private operators dominate the ambulatory care service market with a large number of small services In 2013 the Ambulatory care services by provider Average # of ambulatory care type patients per provider ambulatory care (2013 figures) (2013 figures) service market is TOTAL: dominated by private providers, representing two thirds of all This data is no part services. This data is no part of of the publically There are strong the publically available internet document available internet differences in size document between the different provider types, on average the private private companies public providers providers a little more private non-profit public non-profit companies companies companies providers than of the number of non-for- profit providers. The German ambulatory care services are mainly run by private care patients. (see above) operators. In 2013 they have the largest number of care services On average the private ambulatory care services are smaller in size. and represent % of all ambulatory care services. Non-for-profit On average they service patients, as opposed to patients providers have % of all ambulatory care services. Only % of cared for by non-for-profit providers. Public operators have an all services are run by public operators. average size of patients per care service. However, private operators only care for % of all ambulatory Source: XXXXXXXXXX , 2016 CONALLIANCE 22 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
The ambulatory market is fragmented, the larger services have grown during recent years Split of ambulatory care services by Services provided by ambulatory care One quarter of number of patients cared for 2013 services 2007 vs 2013 ambulatory care Growth rate since 2007 services cares for or XX% This data is no part of less patients. Growth rate other ambulatory services the publically Mainly the larger care since 2007 available internet XX% document services have gained SGB XII assistance to care This data is no part of size since 2007. the publically available internet The ambulatory care Growth rate document SGB V since 2007 services offer on XX% average the same SGB XI services of SGB V and This data is no part of the publically available SGB XI, % still offer 0% 20% internet 40% 60% document 80% 100% 120% additional assistance 01-10 16-20 26-35 51-70 101-150 2007 2013 to care services. 11-15 21-25 36-50 71-100 151+ Almost half of ambulatory care services ( %) care for have in number. This suggests first consolidation trends patients in 2013. One third of care services ( %) care for or less All ambulatory care services offer SGB XI (long term care insurance) patients. Only of care services reach a size of or more services in 2013. The number ambulatory health care services patients cares for. offering health insurance financed services (SGB V) has grown Since 2007 especially the larger ambulatory care service providers slightly since 2007. By 2013 % as opposed to % in 2007. Source: Trendbericht Altenpflege 2015 CONALLIANCE 23 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Strong increase in capacities of intensive care at residential communities compared to total number of citizens Intensive care capacity at residential communities Intensive care capacity at residential The number of (# of places - split by state) communities (# of pl. per 100 k citizens) residential communities for Baden-Württemberg intensive care patients Bayern has seen a strong Berlin development during Brandenburg the last few years. Between January 2015 Bremen and July 2016 the Hamburg number of total places Hessen available has Mecklenburg Vorpommern Niedersachsen This data is no part of the publically Nordrhein Westfahlen available internet document However there Rheinland Pfalz are strong regional Saarland differences. Strongest Sachsen growth rates can be seen in Sachsen-Anhalt Schleswig-Holstein , minor Thüringen reduction in places have happened in Total 2015: XXX 2015 2016 Ø 2015: Ø 2016: Total 2016: XXX XXX XXX Source: pflegemarkt.com 24 CONALLIANCE M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Health Expenditures 25 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Summary Health Expenditures 1. Overall German health care expenditures have grown since 2010 at 3.1% annual growth rate. During the same time ambulatory care expenditures have also grown, at a similar rate of 3.2% annual growth rate. 9. 2. German long term care insurance expenditures have grown since 2000 at % annual growth rate. During the same time ambulatory care service expenditures (SGB XI) have also grown, at same rate of % annual growth rate 10. (Stronger annual growth than overall ambulatory care expenditures). 3. Total ambulatory care service expenditures (SGB XI and SGB V) amounted to Bill EUR in 2015. These are the total 11. expenditures for all ambulatory care services. 4. Experts estimate expenditures for ambulatory intensive care of bill EUR ( % of all ambulatory care expenditures) 12. 5. Yearly health expenditures per person grow at an annual rate of %. The highest health care expenditures per person relate to the age group 85+ years. 6. 13. 7. 14. 8. CONALLIANCE 26 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
The overall German health care expenditures have been growing at a steady pace, total ambulatory care expensitures have grown at % annual growth rate since 2010 Overall German health Health Expenditures 2010 - 2014 (in bill. €) care expenditures have grown since 2010 at CAGR: XX% This data is no part of the publically % annual growth available internet rate. During the same document time ambulatory care Thereof expenditures have also nursing CAGR: XX% services: grown, at a similar XXX rate of % annual growth rate. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Invest Medical services Food / Accommodation Transportation Preventional Measures Therapeutical / Care Services Goods Administration German long term care insurance is guided by the core principle are medical costs. The overall care market represents one sixth „ambulatory care before stationary care“. The German health ( %) of the total German health care spending’s. ministry has declared this principle as the main guideline for the The ambulatory care market spending is growing at a simila growth nursing care market development. In 1995, with introduction of rate than the overall health care market. However it has the long term care insurance, this principle has continuously been continuously been growing between 2010 and 2014 at an annual implemented in all laws concerning health care. rate of %. German health care spending’s have developed since 2010 at an annual rate of %. Main growth driver for increased spending’s Source: 2016 , „ , 2016“ / „ 2015“ M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY CONALLIANCE 27
Expenditures long term care insurance are part of German health care spendings, all health care spendings have grown Long-term Care Insurance Expenditures - split by cost types German long term (annual spendings in bill. €) care expenditures have grown since 2000 at CAGR CAGR: XX% 2000-2015 % annual growth This data is no part of rate. During the same the publically Stationary time ambulatory care available internet Expenditure: document service expenditures XX% (SGB XI) have also grown, at same rate of Stationary Total Ambulatory: total % annual growth XX% rate (Stronger annual Ambulatory Ambulatory Services: growth than overall total XX% ambulatory care expenditures). 2000 2014 2015 Stationary Care Ambulatory Services Appliances Financial support ("Pflegegeld") Day/night/exceptional nursing care Other German long term care insurance has payed in 2014 Bln Euros services has grown at an compound annual rate of %. The for ambulatory care services. This represents with % of the total growth for spending’s in ambulatory care services is higher than the spending of the long term care insurance. This is the third larges spending’s for stationary care services during the same time period. area of spending’s of the long term care insurance. ( %) Since 2000 German long term care spending’s for ambulatory care Sources: , 2016“; „GKV Spitzenverband, 2016“ CONALLIANCE 28 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Expenditures for intensive care patients (2% of total ambulatory care patients) account for 33 % of total ambulatory care expenditures Ambulatory Care Service Expenditures - split by Ambulatory care SGB V / XI service expenditures (annual spendings in bill. €) (SGB XI and SGB V) amounted to EUR in 2015. These are the CAGR: XX% total expenditures for ambulatory care Ambulatory intensive care services. services account for Experts estimate expenditures for This data is no part of ~ bill. EUR the publically t/o ambulatory intensive available internet Ambulatory intensive document care services care of EUR ( % of all expenditures). 2014 2015 2015 Ambulatory Services SGB XI Ambulatory Services SGB V German long term care insurance has payed in 2014 Euros services has grown at an compound annual rate of %. The for ambulatory care services. This represents with % of the total growth for spending’s in ambulatory care services is than the spending of the long term care insurance. This is the spending’s for stationary care services during the same time period. area of spending’s of the long term care insurance. ( %). Since 2000 German long term care spending’s for ambulatory care Sources:„XXXXXXXXXX , 2016“; „GKV Spitzenverband, 2016“, Expert interviews CONALLIANCE 29 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Health expenditures grow strongly with age Yearly expenditures Yearly healthcare spending‘s by age group by person 1) CAGR 2002 - 2008 per person grow at an annual rate of %. XX% XX% The highest health XX% care expenditures per XX% person relate to the XX% age group 85+ years. XX% This data is no part XX% of the publically available internet document 2002 2004 2006 2008 < 15 years 30 - 44 years 65 - 84 years The official data for health care to 84“ and „85 +“) account for the spending‘s by age group are highest health care spending‘s 15 - 29 years 45 - 64 years 85 + years dated, but give an indication for per person. Growth rates of an cost trend and relative costs spending‘s per person were high between the different age in the age group 65-84 years of groups. age (second highest growth rate). The two growing age groups („65 1) Now more recent data available by German statistics office CONALLIANCE Source: 30 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Indications 31 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Summary Indications 1. The total number of clinics serving acute intensive care 6. To avoid bias, case study two (Linde company data) has not patients is (CAGR: %) between 2010 and been included into the market model base data. 2014. However the total number of intensive care beds is (CAGR: %) during the same time period. Also the number of cases with artificial respiration during intensive care has increased from 2010 to 2014 by % annual growth. 2. The most relevant indications causing the need for ambulatory intensive care are Amyotrophe Lateral Sclerosis and COPD. Mostly chronical neurological and pneumological diseases can lead to ambulatory intensive care. These cases have grown in German hospitals at an annual rate of % (until 2012) and % in recent years. 3. Cases of tracheostomy have increased over time. The increased rates since 2008 are at around % annually. 4. COPD cases in German hospitals are expected to at an annual rate of % until 2030. % of the registered cases are classified severe cases. These cases have a high likelihood to receive artificial ventilation (a main cause for ambulatory intensive care need). 5. Research identified case studies about the disease structure of residents (patients) of ambulatory intensive care residential communities. Cases one and three are regionally focussed case studies, Case two has been initiated by Pneumological / lung diseases are number one cause for ambulatory intensive care need. CONALLIANCE 32 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Trend towards specialised clinics and ambulatory intensive nursing service The total number of Number of hospitals in Germany total / thereof intensive care CAGR (2013 figures) 2010-2014 clinics serving intensive care patients XX% XX% is declining (CAGR: %) between 2010 This data is no part of the publically and 2014. However available internet the total number of document intensive care beds is XX% XX% increasing (CAGR: %) during the same XX% time period. Also the number of cases with artificial respiration 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 during intensive care Total # of Hospitals has increased from Hospitals with intensive care 2010 to 2014 by % # of Intensive care beds in Hospitals annual growth. Number of cases with artificial respiration during intensive care (in thousand cases per year) Source: XXXXXXXXXX , 2016 CONALLIANCE 33 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Most relevant clinical indications for ambulatory intensive care show significant increase Hospital care cases The most relevant Main relevant diseases for ambulatory intensive care indications causing the need for ambulatory XX% intensive care are Amyotrophe Lateral Sclerosis, COPD. This data is no part of the publically Mostly chronical available internet neurological and document XX% pneumological diseases lead to ambulatory intensive care. These cases have grown in German hospitals at an annual 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 rate of ALS Other Myopathies Obstructive lung diseases in recent years. Main relevant diseases responsible for cases of ambulatory care services CAGR 2005-2014 ALS % Other Myopathies % Obstructive lung diseases % Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden 2016 CONALLIANCE 34 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Especially COPD is a growing disease, it is #4 of the most wide spread diseases Clinical cases by Indication COPD cases in German hospitals are expected COPD LUNG DISEASE to grow at an annual rate of % until 2030. % of the CAGR: XX% registered cases are classified severe cases. These cases have a high likelihood to This data is no Serious state receive artificial part of the Total # of COPD cases publically ventilation. available internet document 2010 2030 Source: Statista.com, 2016; Lungeninformationsdienst, 2016 CONALLIANCE 35 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Various indications trigger the need for patients for intensive care - Examples This chapter is no part of the publically available internet report CONALLIANCE 36 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Underlying Assumptions and First Results of the ambulant intensive care market value projection 37 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Summary Assumptions underlying the calculation of market value projections 1. There are no official statistics about intensive ambulatory of stay in ambulatory intensive care on average (also based care patients, services or expenditures. Therefore, the on expert interviews) approach chosen uses manifold sources of information to 8. Accomodation structure is assumed to change over time, either gain data points from which to further expand starting with Single accomodation share in 2013 as % of analysis or to prove previous assumptions or results from patients, Residential communities (2013: %), and Child other steps of the analysis. care (2013: %). It ends up with respectively 2. Research through various sources generated base in 2030. parameters: base prices, growth rates, etc. 9. Furthermore, the calculation of the development of the 3. Market development was assessed in two scenarios, market is based on a set of various parameters: conservative and realistic. The underlying assumptions were a. Single service patients receive 24hrs of care service per taken from expert interviews as well as from research of day various other expert sources. b. Patients in residential community accomodation 4. Key parameters are the annual increase in number of new receive 24 hrs of service, but share service personnel at cases through aging of population and impact of medical a ratio of patients per service hour. progress. Taking into consideration information from c. Pricing is assumed to start with 2016 values as follows: experts, a cases per year and a % € per hour for single care, € for residential annual rate of further growth of new cases were assumed in care (taking into account assumed care intensity the first year, over time % ratio), € per hour for child care. increase in 2030. d. % inflation per year (baseed on medical inflation rates 5. The increase rates assumed are the result of expert in recent years) interviews (mainly medical doctors) revealing expert e. Regional factors – although to be considered in detailed estimates on the number of new cases in 2013 at between evaluation – were not taken into account in the first cases per year. round of market evaluation. 6. Age split of patients assumed with 0 – 19 years: %, 20 – 49 10. Consolidation of research results reveals an estimated years: %, 50 – 69 years: %, and 70 + year: % were CAGR of the number of ambulant intensive care taken from a combination of various sources available. patients (around patients – model realistic), leading 7. Panel mortality rate is assumed with % of total # of to a market volume CAGR of between % and % in the patients per year, constant until 2030, equalling years period between 2012 and 2025 ( ). CONALLIANCE 38 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
A manifold variety of sources has been consulted to build a reliable model of the ambulant intensive care market There are no official statistics about • Official public data could be found for intensive ambulatory care patients, services Historical demografic development and demografic forecast or expenditures. Patient and ambulatory care service details for patients and services financed by long The aproach chosen term care insurance uses manifold sources of information to either • Other data base information and studies could be found on gain data points, from which to further expand Future development of number of patients of long term care analysis or to prove Number of child care patients and services previous assumptiona Type of medical indications and age split cared for by intensive ambulatory care or results from other services steps of the analysis. • Expert interviews and specialist literature has been drawn on Selected specialized information on ambulatory intensive care patients and services Forecast of ambulatory intensive care patient cases Official statistical data Database Interview CONALLIANCE 39 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Calculation of patient cases / demand as hours of service required in Germany in ambulatory intensive care Research through QUANTITIES PRICING various sources Market Growth Factors Pricing factors generated base Prices 2016 • Base Price per Population Growth parameters: base # of Patients 2013 • Aging Population (hourly rates) accomodation type prices, growth rates, • Medical • Inflation rate etc. improvement • Other • Panel mortality of • …. existing cases Market Structure # of Patients Prices 2013 – 2030 • Development of 2013-2030 • Hourly rates Accomodation Type • By year • By year over time (2013-30) • By accomodation type • By accomodation type Scope of hourly support required • Service hours per case required - by accomodation types # of Service hours total • Development over market 2014-2030 time • By year • By accomodation type Total market 2014-2030 • By year • By accomodation type Sources of information Information compilation method: Result: • Expert interviews • Bottom-up calculation • Dynamic model with options to build Scenarios • Various Statistics • “Triangulation” with external expert • Own calculation sources M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY CONALLIANCE 40
This chapter is no part of the publically available internet report CONALLIANCE 41 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Market model OPTION “A”: 2012 - 2025 - split by age cohorte – Various combinations of parameters “market growth rate” and “share of residential communities” 55 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
This chapter is no part of the publically available internet report CONALLIANCE 56 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Market model OPTION “A”: 2012 – 2025 - split by accomodation type – Various combinations of parameters “market growth rate” and “share of residential communities” 65 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
This chapter is no part of the publically available internet report CONALLIANCE 66 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Part II Regulatory Assessment 77
Summary Regulatory (1/2) 1. Social Codes books V and XI are the basic laws for care in this form of living in comparison to inpatient care. Germany 6. With this package of measures, residential (intensive) care 2. SGB V rules all the provisions for public health insurance, communities have been incentivized. This already led to a whereas SGB XI governs all the provisions for long term significant increase of residential (intensive) care care insurance. communities within recent years and we expect this trend 3. Social Codes books V and XI are modified and to continue – even at an increased level. complemented by a large number of laws and acts as e.g. 7. PSG II will change the current five care grades into three PSG I to III. PSG I is already in force, PSG II will come into future care levels. Patients in need of care have a force on January 1, 2017 (and most propably also PSG III). grandfathering, i.e. they will automatically pass from their PSG I to III mean a significant reform of the current law, and current care grade into the new care level without further thus reform pressure for the years to come can be examination. There will be up to 500.000 new beneficiaries evaluated to be rather small and restrained. As a (estimate by Federal Ministry of Health), 60.000 of them in consequence planning security can be assessed as fairly facilities for disabled people. Moreover all new nursing high. grades will grant higher monetary payments and 4. SGB XI – long term care insurance only finances a smaller ambulatory care patient contribution in kind, than the portion of all ambulatory intensive care services. The cost current cursing grades. for intensive care services is negotiated individually 8. According to experts, the next election result will not have between the health insurance of the patient and the a great impact on care politics. The program of the parties intensive care service provider for each and every case. For differs in this policy field only in details. intensive care patients, the negotiated hourly rate must be 9. paid jointly by the public health insurance, the long-term care insurance and sometimes also by the patient himself (own contribution/ co-payment). This procedure is evaluated by politicians to be suboptimal, but there no reform concept has been presented lately. 5. Benefits for residential (intensive) care communities were (next page) granted – also by PSG I to III – in order to support and favor CONALLIANCE 78 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Summary Regulatory (2/2) 9. action for the (next) federal government. At the same time intensive care) mean a regulatory challenge for care service it must be considered, that Germany is in a favorable providers, because of the different law in each federal current economic situation. If this current situation state. declines, there might be pressure on the public health 15. systems quickly. 10.Because of the fact, that cost for intensive care services is negotiated individually, the improvements in payments and contributions (mentioned before) do not have any direct 16. impact on the charges intensive care services may cash up, because of the individually set hourly rates, which are not directly affected by PSG. However the patient’s own contribution/ co-payment could decrease. 17. 11. Future goals will become a professionalization of care in terms of management, planning, guidance and control. The 18. trend shows, that this professionalization should be implemented by the federal states individually. 12. Residential care communities (also intensive care) seem to be a future concept, because in general they decrease cost for health and care insurances and at the same time increase margins of care service providers (mostly by lower supervision ratio). 13. However, new single agreements for ambulatory intensive care 19. intensive care service providers through negotiation. 20. 14. At the same time, residential care communities (also CONALLIANCE 79 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Overview of relevant German law in ambulatory care (excerpt) Social Codes books V and Social code / Sozialgesetzbuch (SGB) XI are the basic and thus most important laws for Original Law Sozial- Sozial- care gesetzbuch gesetzbuch (SGB V) (SGB XI) This information is 1989 1995 no part of the 1989 publically available Social codes Social codes internet document Translation (Long term (Public health care insurance) insurance) German ambulatory care market is governed by a the most important of all applicable laws for larger number of interlinked regulations. During ambulatory care in Germany. past almost 30 years the care relevant legislation The care of the patient is divided into SGB V and has been continuously supplemented by additional SGB XI. legislation. SGB V summarizes all the provisions for public The main law is the social code with health insurance. It regulates access and financing „Sozialgesetzbuch“ (relevant SGB V and XI), being to medical services and service providers (next page) CONALLIANCE 80 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
Overview of relevant German law in ambulatory care (excerpt) Social Codes books V and ambulatory and stationary. The majority of Familie und zivilgesellschaftliche Aufgaben, BAFzA). XI are modified and ambulatory intensive care services are reimbursed by SGB V, health insurance. The PNG entered into force on October 30, 2012. complemented by a large With the “Pflegeleistungs-Ergänzungsgesetz” from number of laws and acts. SGB XI – long term care insurance only finances a 2002 it complements the care insurance and has smaller portion of all ambulatory intensive care been extended through the PSG from 2015. The cost for intensive are services. The cost for intensive are services is negotiated individually between the health services is negotiated insurance of the patient and the intensive care individually between the service provider for each and every case. This health insurance of the procedure is evaluated by politicians to be patient and the intensive suboptimal, but there has not been presented any reform concept lately. care service provider for each and every case. The „Pflegeweiterentwicklungsgesetz (PfWG)“ is a so called „Artikelgesetz“, which influences and changes several other laws, e.g. article 1 and 2 of PfWG change the SGB XI, article 3, which comrises the PflegeZG. The PflegeZG allows employees to be released from work duties for a limited time in order to care for relatives in need of care, without suffering from downsides or risks of jeopardising the employment relationship. The FPfZG is a supplement to PfZG and allows a limitation to 15 working hours/ week, limited to two years. Half of the lost earnings are covered by the government (Bundesamt für CONALLIANCE 81 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
SGB V Social Codes book V The Fifth Book of the Social Code (SGB V) example, wound care, dressing changes, governs public health summarizes all the provisions for public health medication administration, medical assistance, insurance. The SGB V entered into force on 1 blood sampling, ostomy care, also: meshed vital insurance January 1989th. signs monitoring, invasive / non-invasive ventilation). The chapters are: According to § 106 SGB V Insurance companies 1. General provisions and physicians' associations monitor the economic 2. Insured persons efficiency of medical care for outpatient services 3. Health insurance benefits and assess the indications, effectiveness and 4. Relationships of health insurance to care quality of services provided. providers 5. Experts for the Assessment of Developments in In health insurance law, since 1994 the right of the Healthcare patient in need of care for full inpatient hospital 6. Organisation of health insurance treatment is granted only, if the treatment goal 7. Associations of sickness can not be achieved through partial inpatient, pre- 8. Financing and post-inpatient or outpatient treatment 9. Medical service of the health insurance including domestic Nursing (§ 39 Abs. 2 SGB V; § 10. Insurance and performance, data protection, 43 Abs. 1 SGB XI, “ambulant vor stationär”). The data transparency welfare law provides a number of benefits, to 11. Penalties and fines rules enable the patient to receive care in one's own 12. Reconciliation Regulations governing the household (§§ 63 Satz 1, 64 - 66, 70 SGB XII). This reunification of Germany principle has been confirmed by politicians within 13. Additional transitional provisions the last couple of years, as e.g. recently by Federal Minister of Health Hermann Gröhe in 2015. Patients in need of (intensive) care, who are cared According to our analysis, there is no intention to by an ambulant care service, can according to SGB change this principle for the future. V receive contributions for treatment care (for CONALLIANCE 82 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
SGB XI Social Codes book VXI The Eleventh Book of the Social Code (SGB XI) The remuneration of outpatient care services and governs public care contains the rules for the social care insurance in household assistance is based on uniform Germany. principles (§ 89 SGB XI). A differentiation in the insurance remuneration according to different payers is not According to SGV XI patients in need of (intensive) allowed. For these compensation agreements the care, who are cared by an ambulant care service, umbrella organizations of care funds have given a can receive contributions for home care, as basic recommendation shortly after introduction of care and household assistance (basic care: as help care. washing, eating, dressing and undressing). If the patient has appointed an authorized care Only those care service providers with a supply service, it has to specify the content and extent of contract with the care funds may render their the services, including agreed compensation with services at the expense of the long term care the care in detail in a contract (§ 120 SGB XI). insurance (§ 72 SGB XI). The care insurance pays for the consumption To ensure efficient and effective nursing care, the certain care aids, such as disposable gloves or “Landesverbände” (national associations) of the mouthguard. If the patient needs additional care nursing care insurance have to enter into so called aids, such as a walker, a bath lift or carephone the “Landesrahmenverträge” (master agreements for doctor can prescribe it. The insurance company each state) together with the association of bears the cost. outpatient and stationary nursing facilities and with the participation of the MDK (medical service According to § 43 Abs. 1 SGB XI home care has to of the health insurance), the Association of the be vantage amongst inpatient care: The goal of the local social welfare institutions and the association care insurance is primarily to support home care, of private health insurance ( § 75 SGB XI). This is so that patients can remain in their home directly binding on the care funds and eligible care environment as long as possible. Home and short- services. time care take precedence over inpatient care. CONALLIANCE 83 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
SGB XI: Benefits for residential (intensive) care communities Adjustments of Social Patients with care level, who are living in a By these measures, residential (intensive) care Codes book XI favor and residential care community, have the same rights communities are given advantages to the to care services as people who are cared for at stakeholders: On the one hand, the dependency support care home (eg. as care allowance, care benefits in kind, between the patient and the care provider is communities, which leads care aids, short-term care, etc.). reduced, patients can save money and live in an to a win-win-situation for environment together with people, who are patients, intensive care In addition, each group member (precondition affected by the same obstructions and handicaps. care level > “0 with limited everyday skills“) will On the other hand, care providers could currently providers and (public receive per month € 205 Euro (from January 1, increase their margins because of operational care) insurance 2017 214 Euro) according to § 38a SGB XI savings (i.e. better relation between labor cost and (requirements for these additional services, please work input because of an advantageous care see § 38a SGB XI). ratio). And at the same time, public care insurance benefits from lower hourly rates (also because of Additionally each patient in a residential the advantageous care ratio). (intensive) care community receives a onetime payment amounting to 4.000 Euro With this package of measures, residential (“Wohnumfeldverbessernde Maßnahmen“). This (intensive) care communities have been grant is limited to a maximum of 4 persons per incentivized. This already led to a significant residential (intensive) care community, i.e. a total increase of residential (intensive) care of 16.000 Euros. communities within recent years and we expect this trend to continue – even at an increased level Usually there are more cost advantages to a (please find more detailed information on this residential care community: Costs for domestic aid topic in the „market chapter“ ). can be shared and typically rental costs and incidental expenses are lower in a residential community, than for a one- or two-bedroom apartment. CONALLIANCE
Overview of Landesrahmenverträge according to § 75 Abs. 1 SGB XI full-time institutional part-time institutional State law modifies and Federal state ambulatory care Short-term care care care compliments federal law. Rahmenvertrag für das Land Baden- Baden-Württemberg Württemberg - 09.07.2002 Thus regulation is different in (almost) all Bayern Rahmenvertrag für das Land Bayern Rahmenvertrag für das Land Berlin - states within Germany. Berlin 01.10.2011 Rahmenvertrag für das Land Brandenburg - Brandenburg 01.05.1997 Rahmenvertrag für das Land Bremen - Bremen 01.08.1997 Rahmenvertrag für die Freie und Hamburg Hansestadt Hamburg - 17.11.2009 Hessen Rahmenvertrag für das Land Hessen - 01.05.2009 This information is Mecklenburg- Rahmenvertrag für das Land Mecklenburg- Vorpommern Vorpommern - 01.07.2009 no part of the publically available Rahmenvertrag für das Land Niedersachsen Niedersachsen - 01.01.2001 Nordrhein-Westfalen Rahmenvertrag für das Land Nordrhein- Westfalen - 01.10.1999 internet document Rahmenvertrag für das Land Rheinland- Rheinland-Pfalz Pfalz - 01.01.2007 Saarland Rahmenvertrag in Saarland - 01.01.2011 Rahmenvertrag im Freistaat Sachsen - Sachsen 01.06.2012 Rahmenvertrag in Sachsen-Anhalt - Sachsen-Anhalt 01.08.2004 Rahmenvertrag für das Land Schleswig- Schleswig-Holstein Holstein - 01.07.1996 Thüringen Rahmenvertrag Thüringen - 21.10.1998 CONALLIANCE 85 M&A ADVISORS FOR THE HEALTHCARE INDUSTRY
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