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AFGHANISTAN Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016-2017 Report and Analysis - OPHI - Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
AFGHANISTAN
Multidimensional Poverty Index
2016–2017
Report and Analysis

                        OPHI
                        Oxford Poverty & Human
                         Development Initiative
AFGHANISTAN Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016-2017 Report and Analysis - OPHI - Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
AFGHANISTAN Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016-2017 Report and Analysis - OPHI - Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
AFGHANISTAN
Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016–2017
Report and Analysis

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
National Statistics and Information Authority

                                   OPHI
                                   Oxford Poverty & Human
                                    Development Initiative
AFGHANISTAN Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016-2017 Report and Analysis - OPHI - Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
Afghanistan Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016–2017: Report and Analysis
The Afghanistan Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016–2017 was implemented by the National Statistics
and Information Authority (NSIA) of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan with
technical assistance from the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)
at the University of Oxford.
This publication has been produced with financial assistance from UNICEF.
The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of NSIA and OPHI, and can in no way be taken
as to reflect the views of UNICEF.
For further information, please contact:
National Statistics and Information Authority
Web: www.nsia.gov.af
E-mail: mail@nsia.gov.af
Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)
Web: www.ophi.org.uk
E-mail: ophi@qeh.ox.ac.uk
UNICEF in Afghanistan
Web: www.unicef.org/afghanistan
E-mail: kabul@unicef.org

© 2019 NSIA

Recommended citation: National Statistics and Information Authority (2019). Afghanistan
Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016–2017. NSIA, Kabul.

ISBN: 978-9936-1-0309-2

Front cover and title page photo: Abbas Farzami / Rumi Consultancy / World Bank / Flickr CC BY-NC-ND
Designed by: Maarit Kivilo | OPHI, Oxford
Printed in Kabul, Afghanistan

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AFGHANISTAN Multidimensional Poverty Index 2016-2017 Report and Analysis - OPHI - Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

Foreword
THE NATIONAL STATISTICS AND INFORMA­
TION AUTHORITY (NSIA) has been authorized
by the High Council on Poverty Reduction to pub­lish
a national Multidimensional Poverty Index of Af­ghan­
istan (A-MPI). The A-MPI com­plements the mone­
tary poverty measure and uncovers the deprivations
experienced by the Afghan people in various aspects
of their lives.
The report is produced in accordance with the Nation­
al Priority Programs (NPP) and Afghanistan National
and Peace Development Framework (ANPDF). Both
give primacy to making integrated and evidence-based
policies in order to overcome the poverty, depriva­
tions, and related consequences that the surviving
population of the country have suffered for decades.
This report vigorously helps the government of Af­
ghanistan with budget allocation, policy coordination,
and integrated policies.
Following the High Council on Poverty Reduction’s
authorization, the current report is the result of the
efforts and collaboration of the NSIA and Oxford
Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)
towards publishing the first national MPI for Afghan­
istan. OPHI’s training programs, technical support,
and in-person involvements were key to producing
this report.
NSIA is grateful and con­vinc­ed that the results of the
A-MPI will be in­stru­men­tal for de­velop­ing effec­tive
pov­erty re­duc­tion poli­cies for the people of Afghanistan.

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY in Afghanistan                              IT IS AN HONOUR to have been able to collabo­rate
is a situation in which people are affected by multiple              with and learn from our col­leagues at NSIA who de­
and intersecting deprivations in health, education, liv­             sign­ed the A-MPI. Based on data from ALCS 2016–17,
ing standards, employment, and security.                             the A-MPI is inno­va­tive in hav­ing a gender­ed edu­ca­tion
                                                                     indi­cator and cutting-­edge indi­cators on employ­ment
The Afghanistan Multidimensional Poverty Index
                                                                     and securi­ty. It also in­cludes an ana­lysis of child pov­erty.
(A-MPI) is an official permanent poverty measure that
was deve­loped by the National Statistics and Infor­                 The aim is for the A-MPI to pro­vide a promi­nent tool
mation Author­ity (NSIA) under the direc­tion of the                 to coordi­nate the actors and pro­grammes that address
Islamic Govern­ment of Afghani­stan. The A-MPI aims                  dis­tinct forms of pov­erty, bring­ing these into a cohe­
to guide poli­cies that will accele­rate the re­duc­tion of          rent whole and creat­ing a common momen­tum.
inter­­link­ed depri­va­tions. Using data from the Afghani­
                                                                     The A-MPI will also inform decen­tral­ized activities with
stan Living Conditions Survey (ALCS) 2016–17, the
                                                                     de­tailed data on pro­vincial challenges. When the A-MPI
A-MPI finds that more than half of the popu­lation are
                                                                     is up­dated in future sur­veys, it will enable actors to cele­
multi­dimensio­nally poor, but that one-third of MPI
                                                                     brate vis­ible pro­gress and will pro­vide up­dat­ed evidence
poor people are not income poor.
                                                                     for high-impact integrated policy interventions.
By pro­­vid­ing one high-­­resolu­tion pic­ture of people’s lives,
the A-MPI will hence­forth moni­tor pov­erty and hence
pro­vide in­cen­tives for ac­cele­rating poverty reduction.

                                                                     Sabina Alkire
                                                                     Director
Hasibullah Mowahed                                                   Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative
                                                                     (OPHI), University of Oxford
Deputy Director General
National Statistics and Information Authority

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

Acknowledgements
We are deeply grateful to His Excellency the President
and to members of the High Council for Poverty for
the trust vested in the National Statistics and Infor­
mation Authority to complete the important work of
establishing Afghanistan’s first multidimensional pov­
erty index (MPI).
The design of the Afghanistan MPI (A-MPI) was
based on the Afghanistan National Peace and Devel­
opment Framework and also on consultations with
many ministries. We are particularly grateful to the
Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry
of Public Health, Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs,
Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development,
and Ministry of Education, for their participation in
MPI-related consultations.
We are grateful to colleagues at the Oxford Poverty
and Human Development Initiative at the University
of Oxford, particularly Ricardo Nogales, and from the
Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network for sharing
technical details on MPI computations as well as case
studies of how other countries implemented national
MPIs as permanent official statistics and used national
MPIs to shape policies that accelerate poverty reduction.
Our genuine and warm thanks are offered to the in­
ternational donor community and the World Bank
and European Commission for prior investments in
data and social policies and to UNICEF for providing
solid cross-cutting support to a nationally owned and
nationally computed A-MPI that can be used to make
policies more integrated and more effective.

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

Executive Summary
This report presents the Islamic Republic of Afghan­        The consultations included individual meetings with
istan’s MPI (A-MPI), which is a new, official, and          experts and roundtables convened by both the NSIA
permanent statistic of multidimensional poverty that        and the Ministry of Economy (MOEC). A week-long
complements the monetary poverty indicator. The             training was held at NSIA (previously known as the
A-MPI reflects the priorities present in the Afghanistan    Central Statistics Organisation [CSO]), and, sub­
National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF)            sequently, two lead statisticians joined an intensive
2017 to 2021. In the ANPDF, poverty is recognised           training on multidimensional poverty measurement
to be multidimensional, and, furthermore, poverty re­       and analysis given by the Oxford Poverty and Human
duction is taken to be a central priority. A key priority   Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of
of the ANPDF is to overcome policy fragmentation            Oxford. A further workshop on the use of the national
and link evidence and policy in an integrated man­          MPI for policy – covering topics such as budgeting,
ner. The MPI is an appropriate tool to support the          policy coordination, and sectoral policies – was also
ANPDF because it has been used in many countries            organised by NSIA. Candidate measures were devel­
to improve policy design, coordination, and budget          oped using ALCS data and were thoroughly analysed.
allocation, as well as the monitoring and evaluation of     The High Council on Poverty Reduction selected one
ambitious targets to accelerate poverty reduction.          of these and authorized NSIA to publish a national
                                                            MPI for Afghanistan within six months, using the
The A-MPI is based on the data from the Afghanistan
                                                            same five dimensions as the chosen measure. Extensive
Living Conditions Survey (ALCS) 2016–17, conduct­
                                                            work was undertaken to improve certain indicators as
ed by the National Statistics and Information Author­
                                                            well as to examine the final measure to ensure that it
ity (NSIA).
                                                            was robust to different plausible specifications and ap­
The 2016–17 A-MPI value is 0.272, indicating that           propriate as a policy tool.
poor people in Afghanistan experience more than
                                                            The A-MPI comprises five dimensions and 18 indica­
27% of the deprivations that could be faced if all the
                                                            tors that were selected in a consultative process with
population were deprived in all indicators. The multi­
                                                            high-level policymakers in the country and technical
dimensional poverty headcount ratio stands at 51.7%.
                                                            experts. It is a reflection of policy priorities in the
The A-MPI complements Afghanistan’s national mon­
                                                            country and the data available in the ALCS 2016–17.
etary poverty measure. We find that the people who
are monetarily poor are not necessarily multidimen­         The A-MPI uses an equal nested-weight scheme,
sionally poor. In fact, while 51.7% of people are MPI       assigning a weight of 1/5 to each of the five dimen­
poor and 54.5% are monetary poor, only about 36.3%          sions of education, health, living standards, work, and
of people in Afghanistan are poor by both measures.         shocks. For the dimensions of education and shocks,
Both measures are needed to adequately illuminate           two indicators have a weight equal to 1/20; however,
poverty in its many forms and dimensions.                   the indicators of school attendance and security have
                                                            a weight equal to 1/10. Child school attendance and
The design of the A-MPI draws directly on priorities as
                                                            adult years of schooling (male and female combined)
articulated in our pivotal national document, A
                                              ­ NPDF,
                                                            are roughly equal in importance, and gendered adult
and its associated National Priority Programmes, as
well as on extensive consulta­tions across government
ministries and leaders.

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schooling indicators illuminate adult outcomes. Fi­         multidimensional poverty. Stark differences are found
nally, in the case of the shocks dimension, security in     across provinces too. While 14.7% of the population
the context of Afghanistan covers the vital aspect of       in Kabul are poor, the poverty rate reaches 80.2% and
personal security from violence, whereas production         85.5% in Nooristan and Badghis. However, consider­
and income are related to security from sudden eco­         ing the size of the population in each province, Her­
nomic hardship. A person is identified as poor if they      at and Nangarhar are home to the highest number of
are deprived in at least 40% or more of the dimensions      poor people.
or weighted indicators. The A-MPI was assessed and
                                                            Multidimensional poverty shows different patterns
found to be technically robust to a plausible range of
                                                            across an array of socioeconomic characteristics.
weights and poverty cut-offs.
                                                            While nearly 33.2% of people living in households of
In 2016–17, it is estimated that 51.7% of Afghans live in   four members or less are poor, 60.2% of people liv­
multidimensional poverty. On average, the intensity of      ing in households with 15 or more members are poor.
multidimensional poverty is 52.5%, which means that,        Multidimensional poverty is also higher in households
on average, Afghans are deprived in 52.5% of the 18         that lack education. More than 60% of people live in
weighted indicators that form the A-MPI. The A-MPI,         households where the head has no education, while
estimated as the product of the percentage of poor peo­     only one in four persons are found to be poor when
ple and the average intensity of poverty, is 0.272.         the head of house has a secondary education or higher.
An MPI of 0.272 means that in 2016–17, poor people          In terms of age groups, multidimensional poverty is
experienced 27.2% of the deprivations that could be         most prevalent among children. Fully, 56.4% of chil­
experienced if all Afghans were poor and deprived in        dren aged 0–17 are poor, while less than 49% of peo­
each indicator. Deprivations in terms of school attend­     ple aged 18 and above are MPI poor.
ance (14.1%) and assisted delivery (12.5%) contribute       The key motivation for designing an MPI in Afghani­
the most to the value of the A-MPI. Furthermore, al­        stan is to guide evidence-based policies that accelerate
though the incidence of MPI and monetary poverty            poverty reduction. Among the salient policy recom­
are similar, the overlap between the two measures is        mendations is a need to focus on children, as they are a
not perfect. In particular, nearly 16% of the popula­       particularly vulnerable group, whose high poverty rates
tion are not monetary poor but are multidimensional­        also pose additional challenges for the whole country in
ly poor. Thus, the lens of the A-MPI is a useful com­       the future. Actions to improve children’s health, educa­
plement to the monetary approach to poverty because         tion, employment opportunities, and survival chanc­
it makes visible both people who are poor but not           es also affect their potential in the future and hence
captured by a monetary metric and because it shows          should be a priority in intersectional development pro­
concretely how they are poor across 18 indicators. The      grams. Another key observation is that deprivations are
shape and composition of multidimensional poverty           interlinked, so an emphasis on integrated policies is
varies widely across the country. The urban poverty         appropriate. Improvements in terms of school attend­
rate is 18.1%, whereas the rural rate is 61.1%. It is       ance, assisted delivery, and food security clearly should
estimated that 89% of the Kuchi population live in          be priority components of these programs.

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

The A-MPI can also guide evidence-based budget­ing       monitoring generates visibility, familiarity, and mo­
across key social policies and infra­structure invest­   men­tum to swiftly re­dress development gaps. Countries
ments. The budget allocations should reflect the level   with fre­­
                                                                  quent MPI moni­     tor­
                                                                                         ing, such as Co­ lombia,
of poverty while also rewarding good per­for­mance in    which updates meas­ures annu­ally, have been able to
pov­erty reduction in the most recent period, in order   reduce their MPI swiftly because the same budget en­ve­
to create strong incentives for policy reduction. How­   lope is spent more effi­ciently using the MPI evi­dence.
ever, to create such incentives, the A-MPI must be       Thus this docu­ment contains the MPI survey questions
updated frequently; thus, the questions used for MPI     as an appen­dix in order that future surveys can easily
calculations – which are listed in the Appendix III –    incorporate them and provide a sus­tained assess­ment of
should be included in the Income and Expenditure         the pace of future MPI re­duction in Afghanistan.
and Labor force survey (IE&LS) and the Afghanistan
Development Condition Surveys (ADCS). Frequent

                                                                       FAO | Maryam Farzami | Flickr CC BY-NC

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

Contents
       Foreword                                                                               iii
       Acknowledgements                                                                       v
       Executive Summary                                                                      vi

 I.    INTRODUCTION                                                                           1

 II.   METHODOLOGY                                                                            3
       2.1		 Methodological Basis of the A-MPI                                                3
       2.2		 Design of the A-MPI                                                              3
       2.3		 Data for Analysis: ALCS 2016–17                                                  6

 III. RESULTS                                                                                 7
      3.1		 Afghanistan’s National MPI: Key Results                                           8
       3.2		 Disaggregation by Urban, Rural, and Kuchi Areas, and Provinces                   9
       3.3		 Robustness of the Results to Alternative Poverty Cut-offs                        17
       3.4		 Multidimensional Poverty and Monetary Poverty                                    20
       3.5		 Performance across Household Size                                                21
       3.6		 Performance according to Education of Household Head                             23

 IV. MPI AMONG CHILDREN AND OTHER AGE GROUPS                                                  26

 V.    NEXT STEPS                                                                             33

       REFERENCES                                                                             35

       APPENDICES                                                                             37
       Appendix I    Poverty Maps                                                             37
       Appendix II   The Multidimensional Poverty Index: An Adjusted Headcount Ratio          39
       Appendix III Questions Used for MPI Computations                                       41

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I. Introduction

             “Poverty in Afghanistan is multidimensional: it varies by region, by gender,
                                  and by access to exit pathways.”
                                               ANPDF 2017 to 2021

This report presents the Islamic Republic of Afghan­        The national MPI has been used as a policy tool in
istan’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (A-MPI),             many countries to date, starting with Mexico, Bhu­
which is a new, official, and permanent statistic of        tan, and Colombia in 2009–11 and expanding from
multidimensional poverty that complements the con­          there to include over 18 countries. Learning from the
sumption poverty indicator.                                 observations, data, and analyses of members of the
                                                            South-South Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network
The priority of poverty in all its forms: The move
                                                            (MPPN), it has become apparent that, where the po­
to develop a national MPI was motivated by priori­
                                                            litical will and organizational structures exist, a na­
ties articulated in the Afghanistan National Peace and
                                                            tional MPI can be catalytic when it is used
Development Framework (ANPDF) 2017 to 2021. In
the ANPDF, poverty is recognized to be multidimen­           • To overcome fragmentation – by making visible
sional. Hence that pioneering five-year strategic plan         interconnections across indicators and providing
articulated the vision of Afghanistan’s wellbeing and          an integrated metric that different ministries can
self-reliance in terms that were far wider than mone­          directly affect and analyse;
tary measures alone. Furthermore, poverty reduction is
                                                             • To increase accountability – by monitoring the
taken to be a central priority: “The overarching goals of
                                                               trends in each component indicator over time, dis­
our government are to reduce poverty and improve the
                                                               aggregated by subnational region, and also moni­
welfare of our people” (p. 4). The plan’s components
                                                               toring the trends among the poor who are affect­
encompass jobs, security, infrastructure, health, edu­
                                                               ed by at least 40% of possible deprivations at the
cation, service delivery, and technology. It is therefore
                                                               same time;
natural that the traditional monetary poverty measure
should now be complemented by a multidimensional             • To introduce appropriate policies – by providing
poverty index that establishes and tracks progress in a        detailed and policy-­ salient infor­
                                                                                                  mation that can
cross-section of these non-monetary objectives.                inform budget allocation by sector and region as
                                                               well as just-­in-time policy adjust­ments, target­ing,
Holistic policy: Furthermore, a key priority of the
                                                               and co­ordi­nation across sectors and across levels of
ANPDF is to link evidence and policy in an integrated
                                                               government.
rather than fragmented way. The ANPDF vision state­
ment closes with the words: “Achieving these goals re­      As these needs are evident in Afghanistan, they are de­
quires a collective effort to overcome fragmentation,       scribed more specifically below.
increase accountability, and introduce proper policies
for sustainable growth” (p. 3).

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

BUDGET ALLOCATION: The MPI functions as                     PROCESS OF DESIGNING AFGHANISTAN’S
a headline indicator tracking outcomes of core pro­         NATIONAL MPI: Based on the alignment between
grammes, ministries, and priorities. It is used in many     the ANPDF, with its multidimensional understanding
other countries to inform budget allocation across          of poverty, and an overwhelming national motivation
sectors and subnational regions, and this consonance        to reduce poverty insofar as is possible between 2017
between budget and evidence was called for in the           and 2021, the NSIA chose to develop the baseline
ANPDF, which states: “Aligning the Cabinet, policy          measure from the Afghanistan Living Conditions Sur­
priorities, and the budget is at the heart of our na­       vey 2016–17 and then to update the survey(s) used to
tional development strategy. This will overcome the         compute the A-MPI frequently in order that it might
fragmentation of the past by using a holistic approach      be used for change management and evidence-based
to turning policies into effective expenditures” (p. 12).   policy adjustments. In addition, the public, disaggre­
                                                            gated, and intuitive nature of the A-MPI is intended
MAINSTREAMING AND INTEGRATING: The
                                                            to make transparent the successes and challenges that
ANPDF also called for attention to be paid to how the
                                                            people are experiencing across different regions and
language of and unwavering commitment to poverty
                                                            social groups in Afghanistan.
in all its forms is mainstreamed across many govern­
ment priorities, “All National Priority Programs should     This document presents Afghanistan’s national MPI.
articulate their approach to reducing poverty and sup­      Its indicators were selected in order to provide clear in­
porting policies on gender” (p. 12). And it recognised      sights as to how to design programs that deliberately tar­
that “There has been an absence of poverty-focused in­      get the poor and follow the national priority to reduce
vestments over the long years of conflict” (p. 21).         or eradicate multidimensional poverty. The A-MPI was
                                                            created to be used in monitoring and evaluating plans
CITIZEN ACTION: The National Citizens Char­                 and programs at the national and subnational level, as
ter, which enables communities to shape their own           well as in policy design, targeting, and coordination.
priorities and development responses, and whose
leadership is affirmed in the ANPDF, is a key coun­
terpoint and important conversation partner for work
on multidimensional poverty because concerns about
water, health, education (both access and quality), and
electricity were already articulated and expressed in
the Charter and are reflected in the national MPI. In
addition, the actions of these communities have the
potential to catalyse and accelerate multidimensional
poverty reduction swiftly and definitively.

WOMEN AND CHILDREN: Naturally, a national
poverty measure must cover and address all groups.
Yet the need to empower women, whose leadership
can effectively redress so many other deprivations, is
presented in the ANPDF as fundamental to poverty
reduction. Thus any measure of multidimensional
poverty must be able to make visible the success of
gendered policies. Further, it is recognized that child
poverty is “particularly pernicious” (p. 7); hence a
multidimensional poverty measure must be disaggre­
gated to reflect these needs.

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

II. Methodology
Afghanistan’s national MPI is estimated using the            In order to identify people who suffer multidimen­
Alkire-Foster (AF) method. This chapter presents this        sional poverty in Afghanistan, the deprivation score c
method in general terms along with the measure’s de­         is compared to a poverty cut-off or the k-value. All
sign and the dataset used for its computation. In this       people suffering deprivations in a number of weighted
chapter, we cover the following subjects:                    deprivations equal to or greater than this cut-off are
                                                             identified as multidimensionally poor.
     2.1 Methodological basis of the A-MPI;
     2.2 Design of the A-MPI;                                Once the poor people in Afghanistan are identified,
                                                             the MPI is computed as the product of two compo­
     2.3 Data for analysis: ALCS 2016–17.
                                                             nent indices: the multidimensional headcount ratio
2.1. METHODOLOGICAL BASIS OF THE A-MPI                       and the intensity of multidimensional poverty.
The A-MPI is calculated using the AF method, which
consists of counting the simultaneous deprivations
                                                                The headcount ratio (H) is the proportion of the
that negatively affect a person’s life. The AF method
                                                                population who are multidimensionally poor.
allows the construction of individual deprivation pro­
                                                                The intensity of poverty (A) reflects the pro-
files that can then be used to identify multidimen­             portion of the weighted indicators in which, on
sionally poor people. The number of people living in            average, multidimensionally poor people are de-
multidimensional poverty and the intensity of their             prived.
poverty are combined in the value of the MPI.                   The MPI combines these two aspects of poverty
                                                                in the following way:
By applying this method, the A-MPI reflects simul­
                                                                                   MPI = H x A
taneous deprivations in the 18 indicators that were
chosen based upon a detailed analysis of relevance as
well as data availability. In order to identify whether      It is important to note that the MPI can be equivalent­
or not a person in Afghanistan is deprived in an indi­       ly computed as the weighted sum of censored head­
cator, a deprivation cut-off was set for each indicator.     count ratios – which show the percentage of people
This yields a set of 18 binary variables for every person,   who are identified as poor and are also deprived in a
each one taking the value of 1 if the individual is de­      particular indicator. Because of this structure, the MPI
prived in that indicator and 0, otherwise.                   can be broken down by indicator to show the com­
Once the set of binary variables is calculated, each per­    position of multidimensional poverty. This feature of
son is assigned a deprivation score denoted as c, indi­      dimensional detail brings added policy relevance to
cating the proportion of deprivations weighted by the        the analysis.
relative importance of each indicator in the structure       2.2 DESIGN OF THE A-MPI
of the MPI. The deprivation score c is defined to take       Afghanistan’s national MPI uses a set of dimensions,
values ranging between 0 (indicating that the person         indicators, and cut-offs that reflect its priorities as
does not experience any weighted deprivations) and 1         expressed in the ANPDF and the National Citizen’s
(indicating that they experience weighted deprivations       Charter (NCC), and via the consultations described
in all the 18 indicators).                                   in Chapter I.

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

TABLE 2.1 Dimensions, indicators, and weights of the A-MPI
  Dimensions
                    Indicator                Household is deprived if…                                                               Weight
  of Poverty
                    Food security            There is no borderline or acceptable food consumption.                                  1/10

  Health                                     Any woman who was pregnant in the last 5 years preceding the interview
                    Assisted delivery        received fewer than 4 antenatal care visits OR the delivery did not take                1/10
                                             place at a health facility OR was not attended by a doctor or a nurse.
                    School attendance        At least one child aged 7–16 is not attending school or never did.                      1/10
                                             No woman aged 10+ has completed primary schooling or knows how to
                    Female schooling                                                                                                 1/20
  Education                                  read and write.
                                             No man aged 10+ has completed primary schooling or knows how to read
                    Male schooling                                                                                                   1/20
                                             and write.
                    Access to water          They lack access to improved water sources.[1]                                          1/30
                    Sanitation               They lack access to improved sanitation facilities.    [2]
                                                                                                                                     1/30
                                             There is no adequate lighting source (i.e. there is no lighting, or it comes
                    Electricity                                                                                                      1/30
                                             from candles or solid fuel)

  Living                                     There are no adequate fuel cooking sources (i.e. they use animal dung, crop
  Standards         Cooking fuel             residue or cooking is done in the dwelling using bushes, twigs, firewood or             1/30
                                             charcoal).[3]
                    Housing                  Dwelling is made of inadequate roof, floor or wall materials.[4]                        1/30
                                             They own less than 3 assets (refrigerator, washing machine, vacuum clean-
                    Asset ownership
                                             er, gas cylinder, iron, television, mobile, satellite dish, bicycle and motor-          1/30
                    and agriculture
                                             bike) OR agricultural items (land and livestock).[5]
                    Dependency               There is less than one household member who works for every 6 people.                   1/20
                    Unemployment             No one in the household is employed in the labour force.                                1/20
  Work              Underemployment          One or more people in the household are underemployed.                                  1/20
                                             There are one or more people aged 17–24 who are not employed, and do
                    Youth NEET                                                                                                       1/20
                                             not attend school or any training program.
                                             They have experienced one or more of the following shocks, with a strong
                                             negative effect on household members: i) reduced drinking or agriculture
                    Production               water, ii) unusually high crop pests or disease, iii) severe loss of opium              1/20
                                             production, iv) unusually high livestock disease, v) reduced availability of
                                             grazing area or reduced availability of Kuchi migration route.
                                             They have experienced one or more of the following shocks, with a strong
  Shocks
                    Income                   negative effect on household members: i) increased food prices, ii) a reduc-            1/20
                                             tion in household income or iii) a decrease in farm food prices.
                                             One or more of the following situations apply: i) they have suffered violence
                                             or theft, ii) they live in a district rated as very insecure, iii) they are dis-
                    Security                                                                                                         1/10
                                             placed or iv) they respond that the government’s first priority should be to
                                             disarm local militia or to increase local security.

[1] Improved sources are those that have the potential to deliver safe water by nature of their design and construction. These include
    piped sup­plies and non-­piped sup­plies (such as bore­holes, pro­tected wells and springs, rain­water and packag­ed or de­liver­ed
    water, e.g. by tanker trucks). Un­im­proved drink­ing water sources that do not pro­tect against con­tami­nation are un­pro­tect­ed
    springs and wells. The cate­gory ‘no ser­vice’ iden­tifies sur­face water, such as rivers, streams, irri­gation channels and lakes.
[2] An im­prov­ed sani­ta­tion faci­lity is de­fined as one that hygie­nical­ly sepa­rates hu­man ex­creta from hu­man con­tact. These faci­lities
    in­clude wet sani­ta­tion techno­lo­gies (flush and pour flush toi­lets con­nect­ing to sewers, sep­tic tanks or pit lat­rines) and dry sani­
    ta­tion techno­lo­gies (ven­ti­lat­ed im­prov­ed pit lat­rines, pit lat­rines with slabs and com­post­ing toilets).
[3] The use of in­adequate (solid) cook­ing fuels is a di­rect cause of house­hold air pol­lu­tion, and thus directly asso­ciated to res­pira­tory
    diseases, dis­abi­lities and death.
[4] Adequacy is re­lated to dura­bi­lity. Hous­ing of which the outer walls, roof and floor are made of du­rable ma­terials that pro­tect its
   in­habi­tants from the ex­tremes of cli­ma­tic con­di­tions, such as rain, heat, cold and humi­dity. Fired brick, concrete, mud bricks and
   stone are con­sider­ed du­rable materials. For roofs, wood is re­gard­ed as du­rable.
[5] A per­son is iden­tified as de­priv­ed in assets if their house­hold owns less than three of the con­sider­ed agri­cultural items.
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

                                                                                                                                              4
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

2.2.1 Dimensions, indicators, and deprivation               The unit of analysis, which is the unit for which re­
       cut-offs                                             sults are reported and analysed, is the individual. This
The A-MPI comprises five dimensions and 18 indica­          means that the headcount ratio is the percentage of
tors that were selected in a consultative process with      individuals who are identified as poor.
high-level policymakers in the country and technical
experts. These choices reflect both policy priorities and   2.2.2 Weights
data availability. The weights for each indicator, which    The A-MPI uses an equal nested-weight scheme, as­
mirror their relative importance in the MPI, were set       signing a weight of 1/5 to each of the five dimensions
based upon the same priorities (see Table 2.1).             of education, health, living standards, work, and
                                                            shocks. The five dimensions were approved by the
The unit of identification for the A-MPI is the house­      High Council on Poverty, which also approved equal
hold. This approach assumes intra-household caring and      weights between each of them. The adopted scheme of
sharing, and thus considers a household as a unit formed    equal weights for every dimension implies an identical
by individuals whose lives are deeply intertwined.          relative importance for each one. Within the dimen­
For instance, if one household member is unemployed,        sions of health, living standards, and work each indica­
other household members are affected. Notice that           tor is equally weighted. Each of the two health indica­
this approach allows the measure to include indicators      tors has a weight of 1/10; each of the living standards
that are specific to certain age groups (such as school     indicators has a weight of 1/30; and each of the work
attendance or youth ‘not in employment, education or        indicators has a weight of 1/20. This is because the
training’ [NEET]).                                          indicators were considered to be roughly similar in
                                                            importance across the index. Within the dimensions

                                                                       ©UNICEF-Afghanistan / 2017 / Aziz Froutan

 5
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

of education and shocks, two indicators have a weight       2.3 DATA FOR ANALYSIS: ALCS 2016–17
equal to 1/20; however, the indicators for school at­       The data used for the national poverty measure is from
tendance and security have a weight equal to 1/10.          the ALCS 2016–17, which is the longest-running and
Child school attendance and adult years of schooling        most comprehensive source of information about the
(male and female combined) are roughly equal in im­         living conditions of people in Afghanistan. It is the
portance, but gendered adult schooling indicators were      flagship of the Central Statistics Organization (now
created in order to illuminate gender disparities.          NSIA), and it covers 45 indicators of which 15 are
And in the case of shock, security in the context of Af­    SDG indicators.
ghan­is­tan covers the vital aspect of personal secu­rity   The sampling design of the ALCS 2016–17 is repre­
from vio­lence, whereas pro­duc­tion and income co­ver      sentative at the national level, as well as at the provincial
secu­rity from sudden eco­nomic hard­ship. Robust­ness      level. In total, 35 strata were specified, corresponding
tests to weights are found in section 3.3.                  to the number of provinces (34) in the country plus
2.2.3 Poverty and deprivation cut-offs                      the nomadic Kuchi population. For analytical purpos­
Two kinds of thresholds are used to decide whether a        es, the Kuchi population is not designated as rural or
person is deprived and whether they are poor: (1) an        urban but is treated as an area of its own.
indicator-specific poverty cut-off (deprivation cut-off,    The data provides information for around 20,000 house­
shown in Table 2.1), according to which a person is         holds and 155,000 people. Out of the 2102 ori­gi­nally
considered deprived in each indicator if their achieve­     sampled clusters, 304 (14%) were not cover­ed mainly
ment falls below the cut-off, and (2) a cross-indicator     because of security reasons. A total of 176 clus­ters were
cut-off (or poverty cut-off), which sets the minimum        replaced, mean­ing that 1926 out of the 2102 (92%)
share of deprivations (or deprivation score) needed for     originally sampled clusters were effectively covered.
a person to be considered poor. In Afghanistan, the
poverty cut-off or the k-value was set at 40%, based on
the reasoning that this threshold is equivalent to being
deprived in two or more dimensions, or the equiva­
lent of weighted indicators. It is thus aligned with the
notion of poverty in multiple dimensions. In the MPI
estimation process, all poverty cut-offs were applied
and Figure 3.8 demonstrates results for all poverty cut-
offs by province.

                                                                                                                      6
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

III. Results
This chapter presents details of Afghanistan’s national                                      3.1 Afghanistan’s national MPI: Key results;
MPI estimation results based on the ALCS 2016–17                                             3.2 Disaggregation by urban, rural, and Kuchi areas,
data. We first present the A-MPI as well as the poverty                                          and provinces;
rate and intensity among the poor. We then list disag­
                                                                                             3.3 Robustness of the results to alternative poverty
gregated results by household and individual charac­
                                                                                                 cut-offs;
teristics. The third section presents robustness tests for
                                                                                             3.4 Multidimensional poverty and monetary
the choice of weights and of the k-value. This chapter
                                                                                                 poverty;
has the following sections:
                                                                                             3.5 Performance across household size;
                                                                                             3.6 Performance according to education of
                                                                                                 household head.
FIGURE 3.1 National uncensored headcount ratios, 2016–17

                %

                80                          74.81

                70                                                                   63.01

                60                  52.73
                                                                                                             49.57
                     45.47                          46.73           45.78
                50
  Percentages

                             41.2
                                                            37.73                                                    38.80
                40                                                                                                                                   33.64
                                                                                                                                                             35.01
                                                                                             31.30
                                                                                                                             27.78
                30                                                                                                                           25.59

                                                                                                     16.55                           17.40
                20

                10                                                           5.17

                0
                     FS      AD     SA      FS      MS AW SN                 EL       CF      HO     AA      DE      UN      UD      YO      PR      IN      SE

                             FS     Food security                           SN Sanitation                                       UN Unemployment
                             AD Assisted delivery                           EL      Electricity                                 UD Underemployment
                             SA     School attendance                       CF      Cooking fuel                                YO Youth NEET
                             FS     Female schooling                        HO Housing                                          PR    Production
                             MS Male schooling                              AA      Assets and agriculture                      IN    Income
                             AW Access to water                             DE      Dependency                                  SE    Security

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

 7
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

3.1 AFGHANISTAN’S NATIONAL MPI:
     KEY RESULTS
The basic building block of multidimensional pover­                al poverty is nearly 52%. Since this estimate is based
ty analysis is the set of uncensored headcount ratios.             on a sample, it has a margin of error. Thus, the 95%
These headcount ratios are estimated for each indica­              confidence interval is also presented in the table. This
tor, and they represent the proportion of the popula­              means that we can say with 95% confidence that the
tion who are deprived in the corresponding indicator,              true multidimensional poverty headcount ratio of the
irrespective of their poverty status. As Figure 3.1 shows,         population is between 50.3% and 53.1%.
the highest deprivations at the national level are found
                                                                   The average intensity of poverty, which reflects the
for female schooling (with 75% of the population de­
                                                                   share of deprivations each poor person experiences
prived in this indicator), cooking fuel (63%), school
                                                                   on average, is 52.5%. That is, each poor person is, on
attendance (53%), and dependency (50%). On the
                                                                   average, deprived in more than half of the weighted
other hand, some indicators show much lower rates
                                                                   indicators. With 95% confidence, the true value of the
of deprivation. In particular, the rate of deprivation in
                                                                   intensity of poverty lies between 52.2% and 52.9%.
electricity (5%) is the lowest among all indicators, and
relatively fewer people are deprived in youth NEET                 The MPI, which is the product of H and A, has a val­
(17%)6 and asset ownership and agriculture (17%).                  ue of 0.272. This means that multidimensionally poor
                                                                   people in Afghanistan experience 27.2% of the total
Complementing the uncensored headcount ratios, Ta­
                                                                   deprivations that would be experienced if all people
ble 3.1 shows the main figures related to the A-MPI
                                                                   were deprived in all indicators. The MPI is the official
for 2016–17, including its partial indices: the head­
                                                                   statistic of poverty used to declare whether poverty has
count ratio or poverty rate, H, which is also called
                                                                   fallen or risen over time, because it considers progress
the incidence of poverty (or the proportion of people
                                                                   on two levels – H and A. From analytical and policy­
identified as multidimensionally poor), and the inten­
                                                                   making viewpoints, it is important to notice that there
sity of poverty (or the average proportion of weighted
                                                                   are situations in which only one statistic goes down
indicators in which the poor are deprived, A). As can
                                                                   over time and not the other, but it is important to al­
be seen in the table, the incidence of multidimension­
                                                                   ways keep in mind that both are important. If we use

TABLE 3.1 Incidence, intensity, and MPI, 2016–17

      Poverty cut-off (k)            Index                            Value            Confidence interval (95%)

                                     MPI                              0.272                0.264               0.28
      k-value = 40%                  Headcount ratio (H, %)           51.7                 50.3                53.1
                                     Intensity (A, %)                 52.5                 52.2                52.9

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

                                                                   only the headcount ratio, for example, we might see a
                                                                   rise in poverty in some years, where, if we use MPI, the
[6] In this particular indicator, it is worth noting that 37.4%
    of the population live in households where there is no one
                                                                   fuller picture would reveal a fall in multidimensional
    aged 17–24. Also, 16.1% of people aged 17–24 belong to         poverty – if there had been a sufficiently large decrease
    the NEET group. Finally, gender differences are noticeable:    in intensity.
    21% of female youth can be classified as NEET, as opposed
                                                                   Figure 3.2 depicts the distribution of the intensity of
    to 11.2% of male youth. This disaggregation shows the extent
    to which female youth are disadvantaged compared to their      poverty among the poor. It gives an idea of the c-vector
    male counterparts.                                             schedule for values equal to or greater than 40%, thus

                                                                                                                         8
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

FIGURE 3.2 Incidence, intensity, and MPI, 2016–17

                            5%    1%

                                                                                            40% – 49.99%
      18%

                                                                                            50% – 59.99%

                                                                 42%
                                                                                            60% – 69.99%

                                                                                            70% – 79.99%

                                                                                            80% – 89.99%

                                                                                            90% – 100%

                  34%

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

corresponding to the population that has been identified         In Table 3.2, the MPI, incidence, and intensity of pov­
as multidimensionally poor. Around 42% of all poor               erty are shown by urban, rural, and Kuchi areas. As can
people in Afghanistan are in the lowest intensity band,          be seen in the table, the vast majority of the popula­
which is between 40% and 49.99%, and one-quarter                 tion lives in rural areas (70%), which have particularly
of the poor have deprivation scores of more than 60%.            high levels of poverty compared to urban areas. More
This suggests that further progress in MPI is a legitimate       than 60% of the rural population are multidimension­
policy objective even in the short and medium term, as           ally poor, which greatly contrasts with the 18.1% mul­
most of the poor are very near to the multidimensional           tidimensional poverty headcount ratio in urban areas.
poverty line. However, 6% of the poor experience the
                                                                 On average, poor people in rural areas experience dep­
highest intensities of poverty, as they are deprived in
                                                                 rivations in nearly 53% of the weighted indicators, a
more than 70% of the weighted indicators.
                                                                 figure that is slightly under 50% in urban areas. As
3.2 DISAGGREGATION BY URBAN, RURAL,                              a result, the MPI in rural areas is 0.312, whereas in
     AND KUCHI AREAS, AND PROVINCES                              urban areas it amounts to 0.088. The Kuchi represent
The nomadic Kuchi population is treated as an area of            5% of the Afghan population, and the levels of pov­
their own, as they are not considered as members of              erty they experience deserve particular attention. The
the rural and urban areas in the ALCS. Thus, apply­              vast majority of this population (89%) lives in mul­
ing the property of subgroup decomposability of the              tidimensional poverty, and, on average, they are de­
MPI, it is possible to disaggregate the levels of poverty        prived in more than 56% of the weighted indicators.
for different areas of Afghanistan – urban, rural and            The MPI for the Kuchi population (0.500) is higher
Kuchi areas as well as provinces.                                than that in rural areas, and thus they can be consid­
                                                                 ered as nomadic pockets of poverty in the country. To
                                                                 some extent, this may reflect the selected living stand­
                                                                 ards indicators. However, it is useful for policy purpos­

 9
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

TABLE 3.2 Multidimensional poverty by rural/urban areas, 2016–17

                                                   Urban                                                Rural

                Index
                                Population                     Confidence           Population                   Confidence
                                               Value                                                Value
                                share (%)                      interval (95%)       share (%)                    interval (95%)

   MPI                                        0.088        0.075          0.1                      0.312        0.313       0.33

   Headcount ratio
                                   25%         18.1            15.7      20.5          70%          61.1        59.7        62.6
   (H, %)

   Intensity (A, %)                            48.5        47.6          49.4                       52.6        52.2         53

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

es to have an objective gauge of the Kuchi population                     of the population. Overall, poverty is heavily concen­
that is identical to the measure applied to the rest of                   trated in rural areas, as they are home to more than
the country’s population.                                                 83% of the poor population, while 70% of the total
                                                                          population live in rural areas.
Figure 3.3 compares the distribution of the poor and
general population by area of residence and for the                       Turning now to an analysis at the province level, Table
Kuchi population. Although only 5% of the popu­                           3.3 shows the province-level estimates for the MPI,
lation belong to the Kuchi population, nearly 9% of                       incidence of poverty, and intensity of poverty. The in­
multidimensionally poor people belong to this no­                         cidence of poverty is above 70% in eight out of the 34
madic part of the population. This figure also covers                     provinces, namely Badghis (85%), Nooristan (80%),
those living in urban areas, which are home to 25%                        Kunduz (77%), Zabul (77%), Helmand (74%), Sa­
                                                                          mangan (73%), Urozgan, (71%), and Ghor (70%).
FIGURE 3.3 Distribution of the poor and population by                     Although these regions are relatively small in that each
           urban, rural, and Kuchi Areas, 2016–17                         of them is home to less than 4% of the population,
                90                                                        they deserve particular attention as a very large pro­
                                                                          portion of their populations live in multidimensional
                80
                                                                          poverty.
                70
                                                                          Conversely, the incidence of poverty is below 20%
                60                                                        only in the capital, Kabul (15%), which is home to
  Percentages

                50                                                        16% of the population and thus represents the most
                                                                          densely populated province in the country. As a gener­
                40
                                                                          al pattern, people who live in multidimensional pov­
                30                                                        erty suffer relatively similar levels of poverty intensity.
                20                                                        In all regions, the intensity of poverty is around 50%,
                                                                          but it ranges from 46.1% in Logar to 59.3% in Noor­
                10
                                                                          istan. Maps for these and other figures are presented
                0                                                         in Appendix I.
                        Urban         Rural            Kuchi
                                                                          The MPI for each province and its corresponding 95%
                                Poor people                               confidence intervals are depicted in Figure 3.4. If these
                                Distribution of population (%)
                                                                          confidence intervals do not overlap, then a significant

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

                                                                                                                                   10
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

TABLE 3.3 Multidimensional poverty by province, 2016–17

                                   MPI                              Headcount Ratio (H, %)           Intensity (A, %)
 Subnational         Population
 Region              Share (%)
                                              Confidence                   Confidence                    Confidence
                                   Value                         Value                       Value
                                              Interval (95%)               Interval (95%)                Interval (95%)

 Kabul                16.00        0.071      0.056     0.085    14.7      11.8      17.7    48.0        46.6       49.4
 Kapisa               1.60         0.119      0.074     0.164    24.7      16.6      32.9    48.0        45.0       51.0
 Parwan               2.40         0.217      0.171     0.263    42.4      34.6      50.3    51.1        48.6       53.7
 Wardak               2.20         0.337      0.303     0.370    67.1      61.5      72.7    50.2        49.2       51.3
 Logar                1.70         0.140      0.084     0.197    30.4      19.4      41.5    46.1        44.1       48.2
 Nangarhar            5.80         0.349      0.305     0.393    66.3      58.3      74.2    52.7        51.2       54.1
 Laghman              1.70         0.341      0.286     0.396    62.7      54.3      71.2    54.4        52.3       57.0
 Panjsher             0.50         0.117      0.090     0.143    25.0      19.1      30.8    46.8        45.2       48.4
 Baghlan              3.20         0.291      0.253     0.329    58.0      51.1      64.9    50.2        49.0       51.0
 Bamyan               1.60         0.309      0.271     0.346    59.3      52.7      66.0    52.1        50.1       53.1
 Ghazni               4.40         0.305      0.255     0.354    58.7      49.7      67.7    51.9        50.6       53.2
 Paktika              1.50         0.140      0.102     0.179    29.7      21.7      37.7    47.1        46.0       48.2
 Paktya               1.90         0.235      0.203     0.266    48.3      41.9      54.8    48.5        47.5       49.6
 Khost                2.20         0.252      0.210     0.294    51.6      43.6      59.7    48.8        47.8       49.8
 Kunarha              1.60         0.302      0.263     0.342    57.0      50.5      63.4    53.1        51.6       54.5
 Nooristan            0.50         0.476      0.387     0.565    80.2      67.4      93.0    59.3        55.7       62.9
 Badakhshan           3.40         0.348      0.307     0.389    64.9      58.4      71.5    53.7        52.1       55.2
 Takhar               3.40         0.259      0.221     0.296    51.9      45.0      58.9    49.8        48.7       51.0
 Kunduz               3.80         0.430      0.392     0.469    77.3      71.6      83.0    55.6        54.1       57.2
 Samangan             1.30         0.409      0.364     0.455    72.7      65.8      79.6    56.3        54.6       58.0
 Balkh                 4.80        0.237      0.192     0.282    45.0      37.3      52.8    52.6        50.4       54.7
 Sar-e-Pul             2.00        0.324      0.283     0.364    61.3      54.3      68.4    52.8        51.3       54.3
 Ghor                  2.60        0.365      0.319     0.412    70.1      62.8      77.4    52.1        50.3       54.0
 Daykundi              1.60        0.348      0.309     0.388    67.4      60.4      74.5    51.7        50.4       52.9
 Urozgan               1.30        0.378      0.322     0.434    71.2      60.6      81.8    53.1        51.4       54.7
 Zabul                 1.20        0.416      0.375     0.457    76.9      70.4      83.3    54.1        53.0       55.2
 Kandahar              4.40        0.342      0.303     0.380    66.7      59.8      73.5    51.3        50.2       52.3
 Jawzjan               1.90        0.207      0.166     0.247    43.0      34.9      51.0    48.1        47.2       49.0
 Faryab                3.90        0.388      0.337     0.438    68.3      60.4      76.2    56.2        54.3       58.1
 Helmand               3.30        0.376      0.340     0.411    73.9      66.6      81.2    50.8        49.6       52.1
 Badghis               2.40        0.504      0.470     0.537    85.5      81.2      89.8    58.9        57.4       60.4
 Herat                 7.10        0.316      0.274     0.358    57.6      50.6      64.5    54.8        53.3       56.4
 Farah                 2.10        0.367      0.318     0.416    66.7      58.2      75.3    55.0        53.9       56.1
 Nimroz                0.70        0.237      0.186     0.288    47.5      37.5      57.4    49.9        48.8       51.0
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

 11
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

                        Eric Sutphin | Flickr CC BY

                                               12
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

difference in multidimensional poverty is clearly ob­                                                                                                             graph is particularly important because it combines
tained. With this important technical detail in mind,                                                                                                             the size of the province in terms of population with
it is not possible to pinpoint the poorest province by                                                                                                            the intensity of multidimensional poverty.
the MPI.
                                                                                                                                                                  It is important to note that more than a quarter of poor
On average, however, MPI values in Badghis (0.504)                                                                                                                peop­le live in just four pro­vinces. Herat is home to
and Nooristan (0.476) are the highest. The capital,                                                                                                               near­ly 8% of poor people in the coun­try, follow­ed by
Kabul, has an MPI of 0.071. This value is significant­                                                                                                            Nangar­har (7%), Kanda­har, and Kun­duz (6% each).
ly lower than nearly every other province in country,
                                                                                                                                                                  At this point, it is natural to ask what deprivations
with Kapisa and Logar being the only exceptions.
                                                                                                                                                                  create this poverty and how can they be reduced? To
Figure 3.5 depicts where the MPI poor people live                                                                                                                 answer these questions, we break the MPI down by
across the different provinces in Afghanistan. This                                                                                                               indicator and examine its composition. The censored

FIGURE 3.4 MPI by province 2016–17

        0.6

         0.5

        0.4
  MPI

         0.3

        0.2

         0.1

        0.0
                        Panjsher

                                            Logar

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Samangan
                Kabul

                                   Kapisa

                                                    Paktika
                                                              Parwan
                                                                       Jawzjan
                                                                                 Paktya
                                                                                          Balkh
                                                                                                  Nimroz
                                                                                                           Khost
                                                                                                                   Takhar
                                                                                                                            Baghlan
                                                                                                                                      Kunarha

                                                                                                                                                         Bamyan
                                                                                                                                                                  Herat
                                                                                                                                                                          Sar-e-Pul
                                                                                                                                                                                      Wardak
                                                                                                                                                                                               Laghman
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Kandahar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Badakhshan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Daykundi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nangarhar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ghor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Farah
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Helmand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Urozgan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Faryab

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Zabul
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Kunduz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nooristan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Badghis
                                                                                                                                                Ghazni

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016/17.

 13
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

                                                                 headcount ratio of an indicator represents the propor­
                                                                 tion of the population that is multidimensionally poor
                                                                 and also deprived in that indicator. Recall that the
                                                                 MPI can also be computed as the sum of the weight­
                                                                 ed censored headcount ratios. Therefore, reducing any
                                                                 of the censored headcount ratios – by reducing any
                                                                 deprivation of any poor person – naturally results in a
                                                                 reduction in the MPI.
                                                                 Figure 3.6 shows that the largest censored headcount
                                                                 ratio corresponds to female schooling (with 48% of
                                                                 the population being poor and deprived in this in­
                                                                 dicator), cooking fuel (41%), and school attendance

FIGURE 3.5 Proportion of Afghanistan’s poor people in each province (numbers sum to 100%)

        Herat   7.72%
  Nangarhar     7.35%
   Kandahar     5.53%
     Kunduz     5.50%
       Faryab   5.08%
      Ghazni    4.84%
    Helmand     4.69%
        Kabul   4.49%
 Badakhshan     4.20%
        Balkh   4.07%
     Badghis    3.93%
     Baghlan    3.56%
         Ghor   3.47%
       Takhar   3.37%
     Wardak     2.75%
        Farah   2.62%
   Sar-e-Pul    2.36%
        Khost   2.11%
   Daykundi     2.06%
   Laghman      1.96%
     Parwan     1.95%
  Samangan      1.85%
      Paktya    1.77%
    Urozgan     1.76%
     Bamyan     1.76%
        Zabul   1.75%
    Kunarha     1.72%
     Jawzjan    1.54%
        Logar   0.98%
      Paktika   0.85%
   Nooristan    0.78%
       Kapisa   0.75%
      Nimroz    0.66%
    Panjsher    0.25%

                    0%         1%           2%           3%         4%          5%          6%          7%         8%

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

FIGURE 3.6 National censored headcount ratios, 2016–17

                60

                                          47.9
                50
                                                                            41.3
                                   39.1
                40          34.6                 34.2
                                                                                                 32.2
  Percentages

                                                               31.6
                     30.6
                                                        27.3
                30                                                                                                                          24.8
                                                                                   22.4                 23.2
                                                                                                               19.8          18.8    19.4
                20
                                                                                          13.5

                10                                                                                                     6.7
                                                                      4.2

                0
                     FS     AD     SA     FS     MS AW SN             EL    CF     HO     AA     DE     UN     UD      YO    PR      IN     SE

                     Health          Education                  Living Standards                         Work                       Shocks

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

(39%). On the other hand, some indicators show                                                                    FS     Food security
much lower rates of deprivation while being poor. In
                                                                                                                  AD Assisted delivery
particular, deprivations are the lowest for electricity
                                                                                                                  SA     School attendance
(4%) and youth NEET (7%).
                                                                                                                  FS     Female schooling
Deprivation in assisted delivery is above 15% in Log­
ar, Paktika, Takhar, Ghor, and Nimroz. Deprivation in                                                             MS Male schooling

school attendance is above 15% for a larger number of                                                             AW Access to water
provinces: Kabul, Kapisa, Logar, Paktika, Paktya, Khost,                                                          SN     Sanitation
Kunarha, Urozgan, Kandahar, Jawzjan, Helmand, and                                                                 EL     Electricity
Nimroz. In fact, deprivation in school attendance is
                                                                                                                  CF     Cooking fuel
below 10% only in Panjsher and Ghor. Combined,
the contribution of these three indicators is above 40%                                                           HO Housing
in Logar, Paktika, Paktya, Badakhshan, Takhar, Balkh,                                                             AA     Assets and agriculture
Kandahar, Jawzjan, and Nimroz. These results clearly                                                              DE     Dependency
show that deprivations in health and education often
                                                                                                                  UN Unemployment
overlap among the poor in several provinces around the
                                                                                                                  UD Underemployment
country. Thus a set of coordinated intersectoral policies
regarding health and education is needed to boost poor                                                            YO     Youth NEET
people’s chances of exiting poverty.                                                                              PR     Production

Security is another particularly important indicator.                                                             IN     Income
The contribution of deprivation in security to the MPI                                                            SE     Security
is above 15% in three provinces, namely Kunduz,

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AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

FIGURE 3.7 Percentage contribution of each indicator to urban, rural, and Kuchi MPI, 2016–17
                                                                                       SE   Security
     %
                                                                                       IN   Income
   100
                                                                                       PR   Production
    90                                                                                 YO   Youth NEET
                                                                                       UD Underemployment
    80
                                                                                       UN Unemployment
     70                                                                                DE   Dependency
                                                                                       AA   Assets and agriculture
    60
                                                                                       HO Housing
     50
                                                                                       CF   Cooking fuel

    40                                                                                 EL   Electricity
                                                                                       SN Sanitation
     30
                                                                                       AW Access to water
     20                                                                                MS Male schooling

     10                                                                                FS   Female schooling
                                                                                       SA   School attendance
      0
                                                                                       AD Assisted delivery
             Urban              Rural              Kuchi         National
                                                                                       FS   Food security
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

Eric Sutphin | Flickr CC BY

                                                                                                                16
AFGHANISTAN MPI 2016–2017 • Report and Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                  3.3 ROBUSTNESS OF THE RESULTS TO
                                                                                                                                                                                       ALTERNATIVE POVERTY CUT-OFFS
Urozgan, and Helmand. The only province where the                                                                                                                                 Figure 3.9 plots the value of H for each province
contribution is below 2% is Logar. The contribution                                                                                                                               and various levels of the poverty cut-off k. The cross­
of all the other indicators is regularly below 10% in                                                                                                                             ing lines in this figure show that there is not a clear
every single region. The only exception is the contri­                                                                                                                            ranking in terms of poverty between provinces for all
bution of deprivation in female schooling in Paktika,                                                                                                                             possible poverty cut-offs. However, on average, the
Paktya, and Jawzjan.                                                                                                                                                              poverty rate in Kabul, the capital, is the lowest among
                                                                                                                                                                                  all provinces for every cut-off between 10% and 50%.
                                                                                                                                                                                  Thus, Kabul’s average incidence of multidimensional

FIGURE 3.8 Percentage contributions of each indicator to provinces’ MPI, 2016–17

       %
      100

      90

      80

       70

      60

      50

      40

      30

      20

       10

        0
                                               Logar
                                                       Nangarhar

                                                                             Panjsher

                                                                                                                                                                                  Takhar

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ghor

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Kandahar
            Kabul
                    Kapisa
                             Parwan
                                      Wardak

                                                                   Laghman

                                                                                        Baghlan
                                                                                                  Bamyan
                                                                                                           Ghazni
                                                                                                                    Paktika
                                                                                                                              Paktya
                                                                                                                                       Khost
                                                                                                                                               Kunarha
                                                                                                                                                         Nooristan
                                                                                                                                                                     Badakhshan

                                                                                                                                                                                           Kunduz
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Samangan
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Balkh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sar-e-Pul

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Daykundi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Urozgan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Zabul

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jawzjan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Faryab
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Helmand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Badghis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Herat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Farah
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nimroz

                              FS           Food security                                                                               SN Sanitation                                                                                                           UN Unemployment
                              AD Assisted delivery                                                                                     EL           Electricity                                                                                                UD Underemployment
                              SA           School attendance                                                                           CF           Cooking fuel                                                                                               YO          Youth NEET
                              FS           Female schooling                                                                            HO Housing                                                                                                              PR          Production
                              MS Male schooling                                                                                        AA           Assets and agriculture                                                                                     IN          Income
                              AW Access to water                                                                                       DE           Dependency                                                                                                 SE          Security

Source: Author’s calculations based on data from ALCS 2016–17.

 17
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