ACCESSIBLE RETAIL: DEFINING THE EMPLOYMENT VALUE OF THE SECTOR - An evaluation of the employment value of the accessible retail sector
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ACCESSIBLE RETAIL: DEFINING THE EMPLOYMENT VALUE OF THE SECTOR An evaluation of the employment value of the accessible retail sector Prepared on behalf of Accessible Retail October 2015 CBRE Henrietta House London W1G 0NB
CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................... 3! 1.! Introduction ................................................................ ………….. 4 2.! Defining the scope of the out-of-town retail sector ......................... 5! 3.! Calculating Employment Numbers ............................................. 10! 4.! Results and Findings ................................................................. 15 5.! Pure Play ................................................................................. 16! ! . ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report aims to quantify the number of people employed in the accessible retail sector. CBRE have done this by splitting the research into pre-retail jobs i.e. planning and construction, retail jobs when the parks are fully operational, head office and operations jobs for occupiers and landlords, and professional jobs within third party organisations. •! CBRE have undertaken research which indicates that on a typical working day, the out-of-town retail sector directly employs almost 725,000 people. •! It is estimated that this number increases at seasonal peaks throughout the year, reaching around 800,000 people at the peak before Christmas. •! This compares to the Big Four banks, which employ only 597,300 people in total worldwide. •! If a multiplier effect were applied to account for those whose jobs are related to, but aren’t directly dependent on, out-of- town retail, this number would significantly increase. Page 3 •! The industry employs people in a wide range of employment types, catering to people of all skill levels, from manual EXECUTIVE SUMMARY employment in construction and fit-out, in retail, maintenance and cleaning positions within the retail parks, as well as white collar jobs in occupier and landlord head offices and third party professional service firms. •! Unlike many other sectors, such as financial services, employment opportunities are offered throughout the UK. This is particularly important where retailer and landlord head offices and professional service firms are located within peripheral towns that traditionally depend on heavy industry. •! Key out-of-town players offer apprenticeships and training schemes in roles such as hospitality, management, engineering and joinery, allowing people unable to complete higher education to work towards professional qualifications. •! CBRE have calculated that Pure Play retail directly employs 61,000 people. This equates to one person for £693,000 of revenue – much lower than out-of-town which employs one person for £1.8 million of revenue. •! As the sector continues to flourish, accessible retail will become an increasingly important source of employment in ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE the UK and make a greater contribution to the country’s economy. Page 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE 1.0!Introduction Retail parks are a key component of the UK retail landscape, with revenue in 2014 estimated at £94.7bn, second only to high streets at £107.2bn (Conlumino, 2015). Though the sector has somewhat suffered throughout the past decade with the demise of traditional retail park staples such as MFI and Comet, recent years have seen a rejuvenation in accessible retail, as the DIY and homewares sectors have recovered and retailers across the fashion and discount sectors increasingly look to take space in out-of-town retail locations. Retailer demand, attracted by large conforming units, affordable rents, high levels of accessibility and the availability of car parking close to store entrances, is driving down vacancy rates, currently at 8.0%, the lowest of all retail sectors (Source: LDC, 2015)*. As apparel and discount retailers increasingly look to take space on retail parks, retail parks are becoming more diverse and strengthening their competitive position within the retail sector. Any concerns over the ongoing troubles of grocery retailers and their impact on accessible retail are likely to be offset by the growth in demand from non- traditional retail park occupiers. While the growth in online retail has been a source of much concern in the retail sector as a whole, it can be argued that e-retail has in fact contributed to the revitalisation of the retail park sector. Though the proliferation of online shopping has indeed been detrimental to some local retail centres, the suitability of retail parks for click-and-collect fulfilment has driven a surge in demand for units from occupiers wishing to develop their multichannel offer. Convenient locations and free car-parking make retail parks highly accessible, and the ability to park close to the Page 5 store entrance is particularly important when collecting bulky goods given the high delivery costs associated with ordering such goods online. By offering the option for cost effective exchanges or returns in-store for online INTRODUCTION purchases, having a physical store in a location such as a retail park can boost the growth in online trade for a retailer. This synergy with multichannel retail encourages visits to the retail park, increasing footfall and benefitting not only the target retailer but neighbouring occupiers, increasing demand for these locations. The growth of click-and- collect has additionally helped to boost employment in out-of-town retail which may have otherwise been lost to pure play retail. As retailers increasingly look to develop their multichannel offer and the out-of-town tenant mix diversifies, the future is extremely bright for out-of-town retail. It is forecast that the sector will see 3.3% growth in total sales by 2019, further cementing its position as a key retail destination. Retail is a key cornerstone of the UK economy, employing almost 3 million people across the country. As the out-of- town retail sector continues to grow, it is becoming an increasingly important source of employment within the retail industry. In addition to jobs within the stores themselves, many other roles are dependent on the out-of-town retail sector, for example construction and planning, head office and operations jobs for occupiers and landlords, as well as within property agencies who support and manage retail parks. This report will attempt to estimate the number of people employed within the industry, looking at the various roles available at different parts of the retail park life- cycle. We will first detail the scope of the out-of-town retail sector, and use this to estimate those employed in the pre- retail phase i.e. planning, construction and development, those employed when the retail parks are operational, those employed in occupier and landlord head office functions, and those employed by third party organisations, such as property agencies, who work directly in the out-of-town sector. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE *Compared to shopping centres and high streets at 15.2% and 11.8% respectively (LDC, 2015). Page 6 INTRODUCTION ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE 2.0! Defining the scope of the out-of-town retail sector The first step in quantifying the number of people employed in the accessible retail industry was defining the scope of the sector. Using Trevor Woods data CBRE have detailed a universe of the UK out of town retail sector, including retail parks, leisure parks, outlet centres and solus units, including occupiers and floor space data. The occupiers are segmented by the retail category they trade within in order to understand the proportion of out-of- town floor space occupied by each product category, allowing us to more accurately account for differences in employment density between different product categories and individual retailers. TYPE OF SCHEME The database of accessible retail locations throughout the UK covers a total of 2,890 retail locations, at c.184 million sq ft of space. The table below outlines the spread of retail space across various accessible retail categories. Schem e Type Count Total GLA (sq ft) Average GLA (sq ft) Retail Park 885 92,810,865 104,871 Retail Warehousing developm ent 1,862 67,845,476 36,437 Shopping Park 85 15,510,375 182,475 Retail and Leisure Park 31 6,860,666 221,312 Trade Park 27 655,799 24,289 T otal 2,890 183,683,181 63,558 Page 7 Figure 1: Breakdown of out-of-town retail universe by scheme type (Trevor Woods, 2015). OUT-OF-TOWN RETAIL SECTOR DEFINING THE SCOPE OF THE Only stores which are located within these scheme types are included i.e. only supermarkets within retail parks or shopping parks. Retail warehousing developments include solus units and dominate the UK accessible retail landscape in terms of the number of schemes. However, in terms of floor space, accessible retail is largely concentrated within retail parks, with over 92 million sq ft of retail space. Trade parks account for the smallest proportion of retail space and are the smallest formats. Retail and leisure parks and shopping parks are the largest formats, at average sizes of c.220,000 sq ft and c.180,000 sq ft respectively. RETAIL CATEGORY The table on the following page (Figure 2) shows the distribution of retail space across the accessible retail sector by product category. As one would expect, the sector is dominated by bulky goods retailers, with DIY, Variety Stores and Furniture amongst the product categories with the highest number of units. Grocery and Clothing, while accounting for a smaller number of units, still make up a sizeable proportion of the total floor space and employment in the sector. It is evident that Restaurant/Takeaway is a key retail type for accessible retail – while only accounting for a small proportion of floor space; they have the second highest number of units and as such play a key role as an employer in the accessible retail landscape. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE Activity No. of Units Total GLA (sq ft) Average GLA (sq ft) DIY 1,085 39,621,909 36,518 Variety Store 1,379 22,153,618 16,065 Grocery 627 18,714,910 29,848 General Clothing 882 15,089,694 17,108 Furniture 1,117 12,115,107 10,846 Departm ent Store 127 9,124,249 71,844 Electrical 535 8,450,405 15,795 Sports Goods 360 4,672,459 12,979 Carpets 474 4,247,502 8,961 Household Textiles 221 4,108,263 18,589 Auto/Cycle Access 470 4,092,285 8,707 Pet Supplies 490 3,988,728 8,140 Toys 145 3,652,555 25,190 Catalogue Showroom 277 3,100,590 11,193 Restaurant/Takeaway 1,145 2,944,273 2,571 Other 3,233 27,606,634 8,539 T ota l 12,567 183,683,181 14,616 Figure 2: Breakdown of out-of-town retail universe by product category (Trevor Woods, 2015) Page 8 PROMINENT OCCUPIERS The table below shows the top fifteen occupiers in terms of total GLA, excluding vacant units. OUT-OF-TOWN RETAIL SECTOR DEFINING THE SCOPE OF THE Average GLA % Total Floorspace Fascia Product Category No. of Units Total GLA (sq ft) (sq ft) (m inus vacant) B & Q (all form ats) DIY 350 21,530,297 61,515 12.5% Hom ebase (all form ats) DIY 283 10,062,920 35,558 5.9% Currys / PC World Electrical 378 7,665,600 20,279 4.5% Matalan General Clothing 199 6,395,336 32,137 3.7% Wickes DIY 213 6,375,265 29,931 3.7% B & M (all form ats) Variety Store 258 5,330,527 20,661 3.1% Sainsbury's (all form ats) Grocery 67 5,133,146 76,614 3.0% IKEA Departm ent Store 18 4,320,665 240,037 2.5% Halfords Auto / Cycle Access 414 3,809,974 9,203 2.2% Asda (all form ats) Grocery 86 3,600,832 41,870 2.1% Tesco (all form ats) Grocery 54 3,583,841 66,367 2.1% Dunelm Mill Household Textiles 143 3,574,864 24,999 2.1% Marks & Spencer Departm ent Store 60 3,428,792 57,147 2.0% Carpetright Carpets 365 3,402,772 9,323 2.0% Next (Fashion, Hom e & General Clothing/ 255 3,378,958 13,251 2.0% Garden) Variety Store Other N/A 8,632 83,769,833 9,705 48.8% T ota l N /A 11,317 171,562,201 15,160 100.0% Figure 3: Breakdown of out-of-town retail universe by occupier (Trevor Woods, 2015) B&Q are the sector’s most prominent occupier, in terms of both number of stores and total GLA. Though Homebase have the second highest total GLA, this is less than half of that occupied by B&Q. The supermarkets also feature prominently in the top fifteen, with Sainsbury’s, Asda and Tesco all present. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE The top fifteen occupiers are generally larger format stores; however Carpetright and Halfords are noticeably smaller than the other key retailers. Though IKEA has far fewer units than the other occupiers, the size of stores mean that it accounts for one of the largest proportions of floor space. Owners Total OOT GLA (sq ft) PROMINENT LANDLORDS British Land 4,661,131 Ham m erson 4,533,033 The table to the right shows the IKEA Properties Investm ents 4,226,808 top fifteen landlords in terms of The Crown Estate 3,093,503 total out-of-town GLA. Sainsbury's 2,998,401 Land Securities Properties 2,942,153 Where assets are owned by B & Q Properties 2,857,210 multiple stakeholders and Hercules Unit Trust 2,752,153 proportional ownership details Wm Morrison 2,724,693 Prudential Life Fund 2,636,065 were not available, CBRE have Tesco Stores 2,512,220 applied an equal split of floor Henderson UK Retail Warehouse Fund 2,351,438 space among each party. Peel Holdings 2,135,569 M & G Property Fund 1,741,262 Though a large proportion of retail BlackRock UK Property Fund 1,730,411 park space is owned by private Other 139,787,131 Page 9 T ota l 183,683,181 investors, large institutional landlords such as British Land, Hammerson and IKEA Properties Investments are responsible for the greatest OUT-OF-TOWN RETAIL SECTOR DEFINING THE SCOPE OF THE Figure 4: Breakdown of out-of-town retail universe by landlord (Trevor Woods, 2015) proportion of space. These floor spaces have therefore been used to calculate average employment densities amongst investors and owners across the accessible retail landscape. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION The table below shows the spread of accessible retail space across the different regions. Region No. of Units Total GLA (sq ft) Average GLA (sq ft) South East 765 46,663,989 60,999 North West 342 23,956,091 70,047 Scotland 245 18,348,704 74,893 West Midlands 283 17,019,980 60,141 Yorkshire & Hum berside 265 16,519,353 62,337 South West 257 14,777,193 57,499 East Midlands 204 11,854,554 58,111 Wales 176 11,244,612 63,890 North 141 9,659,509 68,507 Northern Ireland 102 6,985,011 68,481 East Anglia 106 6,508,067 61,397 Channel Islands 2 86,509 43,255 Isle of Man 2 59,609 29,805 T ota l 2,890 183,683,181 63,558 Figure 5: Breakdown of out-of-town retail universe by region (Trevor Woods, 2015) ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE A large proportion of accessible retail space is concentrated in the South East. The North West has the second largest amount of floor space, though this is almost half of that which is present in the South East. Average GLA is relatively consistent across regions; however Channel Islands and Isle of Man have notably smaller developments. Page 10 OUT-OF-TOWN RETAIL SECTOR DEFINING THE SCOPE OF THE ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE 3.0! Calculating Employment Numbers With the aim of defining clearly ‘who’ is employed by the sector, CBRE felt it was important to differentiate between those employed directly within the centre and those employed ‘one step removed’ from the centre. The calculation of employment numbers was therefore split into four categories as detailed below. PRE-RETAIL EMPLOYMENT The first category of employment concerns jobs within the ‘pre-retail’ phase. This refers to those employed before the retail park is operational, and includes those employed in construction and development of the retail park. This section has been split into three categories: PLANNING AND DESIGN To estimate the number of people employed in the planning phase of retail parks, CBRE looked at membership of Accessible Retail. As an official body for the industry CBRE felt that this would give an accurate indication of the number of people employed in planning and technical jobs. There are c.300 people employed in total (not FTE) in this C o mp a n y N o . E mp lo yees part of the pre-retail phase. This refers to those who are CgMs 19 employed exclusively in out-of-town retail. The table to the Chase & Partners 18 GL Hearn 11 Page 11 right shows the top 10 employers in this phase. Generally, Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 11 this is made up of specialist planning consultancies, rather Vectos (South) 11 CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS than the larger property agencies which tend to have smaller WYG Planning & Design 11 teams dedicated to out-of-town planning. For instance, only Peacock & Smith 10 two people are employed in this phase at CBRE, as opposed RPS 10 to almost 20 in some more niche firms. The vast majority of Urban Edge Architecture Limited 10 GKA Limited 9 these jobs are in London and surrounds, though there are a Figure 6: Top 10 employers in out-of-town planning. number of jobs in smaller towns and cities throughout the UK. (Accessible Retail, 2015) CONSTRUCTION To calculate the number of people employed during the construction phase, CBRE have analysed planning applications of a number of case studies of out-of-town developments. These included schemes of a variety of sizes and development types, including new schemes, extensions and redevelopments. The average number of construction jobs per square foot of space under development was collected, as well as the length of the construction period which varied significantly by scheme. The number of jobs per year for each 1,000 sq ft of development was then calculated, and this figure is used as the key unit of measurement. Historical retail park data was then analysed for years 2012 to 2015, a period when retail park construction had begun to pick-up post-recession. This was used to derive an average value for the amount of floor space developed each year. The number of jobs per year for each 1,000sq ft of development was then applied to this yearly figure to calculate the average number of construction jobs in out-of-town retail each year. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE The value calculated was 1.94 jobs per year for each 1,000 sq ft of out-of-town development. On average from 2012 to 2015, 1,113,000 sq ft of out-of-town floor space is under construction each year, with variations in construction volumes between spring and the latter half of the year. CBRE therefore calculated that the accessible retail sector sustained 2,200 jobs per year in total in the construction phase of retail parks. While these jobs are often temporary, the average length of development within the case studies used was twelve months, and therefore these opportunities tend to offer secure employment for at least one year. The chart below shows the proportion of retail park floor space under construction in H1 2015 in each region. All regions, with the exception of the north east, have seen a significant amount of out-of-town space under the construction in the first half of 2015. Both the East and South West of England are currently witnessing a particularly Page 12 large volume of construction. This demonstrates the ability CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS of the construction phase to Figure 7: Proportion of retail park floor space under construction in H1 2015 (CBRE, provide employment opportunities throughout the UK. 2015). FIT-OUT/REFURBISHMENT In order to calculate the number of people employed in the fit-out and refurbishment aspect of out-of-town retail, CBRE disaggregated the retail universe by product category. An assumption was made around the frequency of refurbishment in each product category, with DIY and bulky goods retailers assumed to undergo refurbishment less frequently, and fashion and leisure operators expected to be refurbished most frequently. These values ranged from once every decade among DIY retailers to once every four years for bars and restaurants. The assumed refit rate takes into account both new fit outs from new retailers moving into a unit and refurbishment of existing shops. A table outlining these assumptions can be found in the appendix. This re-fit rate was applied to each product category to estimate the amount of floor space which is re-fit every year. CBRE then spoke to several companies specialising in fit-outs, to understand how the number of people required to fit- out a unit varies between types of occupier. Leisure and grocery operators were thought to require more people for fit-out and refurbishment, with warehouse and DIY retailers requiring a far smaller number of people. CBRE used this insight to estimate the area of floor space which one person would be able to fit out in one week. The amount of floor space fit out by one person in one year was then calculated, assuming two weeks for holiday. This was then applied ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE Average Category Em ployees/1,000 sq ft to the total amount of floor-space re-fit each year in Big Box 2.1 order to Catering 8.0 estimate the number of people required to fit out all floor space Fast Food 30.4 in one year. These assumptions are also included in the Furniture 0.9 appendix. General Merchandise 4.6 Grocery 3.6 CBRE estimated that, 1,100 people are employed in total in the Leisure 1.0 fit-out/refurbishment stage of development. Showroom 4.2 Warehouse 1.4 This equates to a total of over 3,500 people employed in total in Other N/A the pre-retail phase. Figure 8: Average employment density in-store in out- of-town locations by product category (CBRE, 2015) WORKERS DIRECTLY EMPLOYED WITHIN RETAIL PARKS IN-STORE Page 13 Those employed within the retail parks themselves make up the greatest proportion of employment in the industry. This includes those working within the retail outlets as well as those employed to manage, clean, maintain and secure the CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS parks. We also considered those working in office and administration positions within the centre. To quantify the number of people employed within the retail outlets we used a bottom-up approach employing primary research. CBRE visited a large number of retail park and trade park developments, surveying managers within hundreds of stores to understand the total number of people employed in that individual store and how employment was split between full-time and part-time colleagues. Each product category from the out-of-town retail universe was then aggregated to one of ten broader categories based on type of goods sold and typical size of unit. A table outlining the product categories in each broader group can be found in the appendix. Average employment densities were then calculated for each category. This approach was used to account for the variation in the density of retail employment among different retail types. For instance, fashion retailers employ a far higher number of people than DIY/homewares retailers within a store of the same size, due to the greater need for customer service and stock replenishment. The table to the right shows the average employment densities calculated in each product category based on the gross leasable area of each store. For the ‘Other’ category which includes occupiers such as opticians, telecom services and hairdressers, a number of assumptions were made, because the individual retail types were too varied for an average employment density to be relevant. For example, it was assumed that ‘Medical Services’ or ‘Optician’ would employ a significantly greater number of people given that they require medical, administrative and customer facing employees. A table showing the assumptions made around employment in each of these occupier types can be found in the appendix. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
Average CBRE Grouping No. Em ployees No. Units Em ployee per Unit Big BoxCBRE 81,136 4,097 20 Catering 12,755 799 16 General Merchandise 264,704 1,933 137 Fast Food 41,858 426 98 Furniture 13,624 1,117 12 Grocery 90,804 637 143 These employment densities were then applied to the Leisure 4,815 228 21 universe of out-of-town locations. Using a regression Showroom 20,631 285 72 model, an equation was created in order to accurately Warehouse 67,593 1,109 61 Other 6,845 685 10 predict the number of workers employed at each T ota l Reta il E mp loyees 604,766 11,316 53 location. A minimum number of workers were set for Figure 9: Total number of people employed in-store in each product category each outlet. The number of employees working in each category is shown in the table on the left. in out-of-town locations (CBRE, 2015) This gives 605,000 employees in total (not FTE) within stores. WORKING PATTERNS WITHIN 100% STORES 14% 17% 80% CBRE also undertook research to 51% 52% 52% 56% 64% 69% 60% understand how in-store workers were split between part-time and 40% 86% 83% full-time, and how this varies by 49% 48% 48% 20% 44% 36% 31% product category. 0% Page 14 Of our aggregate groups, both Furniture and Leisure were markedly CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS dominated by full-time employees. All other product categories have a Full Tim e Part Tim e greater proportion of part-time than full-time staff. Grocery and general merchandise stores in particular have a huge number of part-time employees. This can be largely attributed to the way these type of stores operate – a furniture store selling bulky goods from a showroom environment generally require much less stock replenishment than a grocery or fast-fashion store, which turns over a far higher volume of goods and consequently needs constant stock checking and replacement. Additionally, many of these retailers, in particular grocery and retail warehouse occupiers, often require shift work and these working patterns lend themselves much more easily to part-time roles and flexible working patterns. Notably, when interviewing store managers, a large number of people commented that high numbers of part-time employees were largely due to the high number of students employed. A number of managers, in stores such as Next, H&M and Outfit in particular, stressed that there was not a straightforward split of full-time and part-time staff, and highlighted the importance to their operating model of having a range of contracts and flexible working hours. Again, this demonstrates the ability of out-of-town retail to provide flexible employment terms to suit the needs of people from different walks of life. The option for flexible working contracts which can be fit around personal commitments allows students, working parents and foreign workers, among others, to earn a wage which fits in with their lifestyle. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
Figure 10: Number of employees working on retail parks but not in-store CBRE Role No. Em ployees Maintenance 343 Cleaner 343 Centre Manager 172 T ota l 858 SUPPORT STAFF A different approach was taken to calculate employees working within the parks but not in the shops, i.e. cleaning, maintenance and centre managers. Following discussions with operators this indicates that on average one maintenance employee and one cleaning employee (employed to clean public areas of the park not within stores) would each cover 500,000 sq ft of space, with one centre manager covering 1 million sq ft of space. Vacant space was excluded from the total retail universe. CBRE calculated that over 850 people are employed in total in the retail parks but not within the stores. This means that in the ‘Retail’ phase, almost 606,000 jobs in total are dependent on out-out-town retail. Again, as our analysis of the out-of-town universe shows, all regions benefit from a significant proportion of out-of- town floor space. While many schemes such as Colliers Wood are located on the fringe of affluent towns and cities, out-of-town developments within more economically sensitive catchments, such as Teeside Retail Park, can be key sources of employment in an area. Where educational attainment is low, retail and administration jobs within retail parks can offer an excellent source of reasonably low-skilled employment, while providing excellent opportunities for career progression into managerial positions. Page 15 NON-PARK EMPLOYEES Another key category of employment for the out-of-town retail sector are those employed ‘one step removed’ from the CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS retail parks themselves. This category includes head office positions on both the landlord and occupier sides. LANDLORDS Using the out-of-town retail universe, key retail park landlords managing significant proportions of floor space were identified, including landlords such as La Salle Investment Management and TIAA Henderson. These landlords were surveyed, to establish if the organisation had a dedicated out-of-town team and, if so, the number of people employed in various employment categories. If the landlord did not have a dedicated out-of-town team, information was collected about the overall level of employment and this was apportioned based on the proportion of the floor space within the landlord’s portfolio which is out-of-town. An average head office employment density was calculated at one employee per 199,222 sq ft of floor space. These figures were then extrapolated out to our out-of-town universe. A significant number of out-of-town retail properties are owned by private investors and, while these investors have a different employment structure to the largest institutional landlords, CBRE maintained a similar approach to calculating employment densities for these properties. Over 6,200 jobs on the landlord owner and investor sides in total were estimated for the accessible retail sector. RETAILERS ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE Using our out-of-town retail universe, several of the top retail park Average occupiers in terms of floor space were identified as targets for data Category Em ployees/1,000 sq ft collection. Information about employment within head office, Big Box 0.20 operations, warehousing and call centres was collected using a Catering* 0.55 combination of primary research methods. This included surveying Furniture 0.41 General Merchandise 0.70 property directors, liaising with investor relations and corporate Grocery 1.24 media teams, and looking at company’s annual reports and Leisure 0.02 accounts. A number of jobs were then apportioned to out-of-town Showroom 0.46 Warehouse 0.25 retail based on the proportion of floor space in each occupier’s Other N/A portfolio which is out-of-town. Using the product category of each Figure 11: Average employment density in out-of- retailer, these numbers were then aggregated to the same ten groups used towntohead estimate office in-store employment. and operations jobs by product category (CBRE, 2015) *Includes both restaurants and Average employment densities for non-retail jobs were calculated, which arefast-food shown in the table above. Head office densities seemed to be a lot more varied within product categories than the in-store employees, however it remains clear that grocery and ‘general merchandise’ retailers have the most dense non-retail employment. Employment densities were then applied to the universe of out-of-town locations. Using a regression model, an equation was created in order to accurately predict the number of head office workers employed for each occupier Page 16 present in out-of-town retail locations. CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS Again, a different approach was taken to calculate non-retail employees in the ‘Other’ category. Looking at individual use classes, CBRE identified which operators were likely to have a head office function. For example, occupiers such as Hairdressers and Off-licenses were most likely to be independents and, as such, unlikely to have head office functions, whereas occupiers such as Travel Agents and Financial Services were identified as most likely to have head office functions. A table outlining the assumptions around head-office can be found in the appendix. For those thought to have a head office/operations function, 0.5 of a non-retail employee was allocated per unit and this was used to calculate total number of employees in this category. A table of the number of Average No. Non- retail non-retail jobs per product CBRE Grouping No. Units Em ployee per Em ployees Unit category can be seen to the Big Box 16,613 4,097 4 right. In total CBRE Catering 1,852 1,225 2 Furniture 6,206 1,117 6 calculated that occupiers General Merchandise 8,792 1,933 5 have almost 107,000 jobs in Grocery 66,776 637 105 total in non-retail roles which Leisure 228 228 1 Showroom 1,503 285 5 are dependent on the out-of- Warehouses 4,628 1,109 4 town retail sector. Other 262 685 0 T ota l N on - reta il E mp loyees 106,859 11,316 131 While this number alone represents an excellent source of employment throughout the UK, when considering the Figure 12: Total number of people employed in out-of-town head office and operations jobs in each product category (CBRE, 2015) ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE location of these jobs, this figure becomes even more significant. Retailer head office operations are generally geographically dispersed throughout the UK, often dependent on the historic origins of the retailer. For instance, Morrisons’ head office functions are located in Bradford, and one of Sainsbury’s head offices is located in Coventry. Furthermore, operations and logistics hubs in particular tend to be located in more provincial locations. This demonstrates that, unlike many other industries, accessible retail provides high-skilled jobs throughout the UK, rather than concentrated in few key cities. This means that areas such as Bradford and Coventry, which see limited investment by large private institutions, are still able to offer opportunities ranging from buying and merchandising roles to jobs in property, statistical modelling and research. APPRENTICESHIPS AND TRAINING As well as offering manual labour, customer service and head office employment, a number of key retail park players also offer apprenticeships and training schemes. In particular, the trade-focused DIY and building materials retailers and food and beverage operators offer excellent opportunities to gain professional qualifications. The City and Guilds Top 100 Apprenticeship Employers is a list of employers who have been recognised for having the highest standards in employing apprentices. The 2014 list features a number of employers working at all stages of the retail park lifecycle, namely retailers such as Topps Tiles, KFC and Mitchells & Butlers. Page 17 TOPPS TILES: Topps Tiles’ 2014 apprenticeship scheme offered 33 retail apprenticeships across the country, with employees working in-store, being mentored by senior members of staff and taking part in group training days, CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS helping employees to develop skills in sales and store operations. In addition, 119 store employees are currently involved in the Retail and Team Leading Apprenticeship programme, as well as apprenticeship opportunities in head office positions. Topps Tiles boast that 700 current employees have already completed such qualifications (Annual Reports and Accounts, 2015). KFC: One of the key food and beverage retailers operating out-of-town, KFC offer numerous opportunities for training and apprenticeships. The brand created an Advanced NVQ Apprentice scheme in conjunction with City and Guilds, which gives team leaders the opportunity to train for a qualification in hospitality management, the equivalent of two A-Levels. On the back of the success of this scheme, the retailer began operating another level two apprenticeship scheme, equivalent to 5 GCSE’s. In addition, KFC operate a bespoke Business Management course in partnership with De Montfort University, which offers a combination of KFC training and lectures from the university. For recent university leavers, the brand also operates a graduate scheme, involving rotations within head office. The brand therefore offers opportunities for training and development in roles, with a wide range of skill levels. MITCHELLS & BUTLERS: Retail chain Mitchells & Butlers operate a number of key out-of-town food and beverage operators such as Harvester, Toby Carvery and Sizzling Pubs. In addition to a range of graduate schemes, including HR, Marketing and Finance schemes, the company offers a Hospitality Management Development Apprenticeship throughout each of their UK brands. It is a three year programme designed specifically for recent school leavers with little or no educational attainment, and allows employees to obtain a Hospitality Level 2 Apprenticeship qualification. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE Currently, 1,500 people are enrolled on their apprenticeship programme, with the aim to create another 1,000 apprenticeships in the next two years. OTHERS: In addition, many key occupiers who do not feature in the top 100 list offer training schemes for their workforce. This ranges from Home Retail Group’s year-long university placements, e-learning and secondments offered by New Look, to Finance Apprenticeships at B&Q and M&S’s Management Scheme for School Leavers. A notable example is the opportunity offered by Costa and Premier Inn owners Whitbread. The company has recently launched its new Costa apprenticeship scheme which will allow employees to work towards an Intermediate Apprenticeship in Customer Service and Barista Skills. In addition, the Premier Inn fascia offers apprenticeships at intermediate, advanced and higher level. In total, Whitbread have pledged to take on 6,000 apprentices by 2020. As well as training and development programmes offered in the retail and hospitality sectors, several out-of-town players offer opportunities in manufacturing and construction. For instance, Howdens Joinery Group, the retail arm of which trades from several out-of-town units in the UK, offers a number of training opportunities in technical roles as well as their courses in subjects such as HR and environmental awareness. Along with the Construction Industry Training Board, they offer a Howden Joinery Bursary which supports 40 apprentice joiners. Howdens also offer apprenticeships in engineering, as well as manufacturing operations. Page 18 The participation of the out-of-town retail industry in a wide range of training and apprenticeship schemes further reinforces the valuable contribution it makes to the UK economy. The benefits of apprenticeships are widely CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS acknowledged; they offer the opportunity for those unable to enter into higher education to gain practical skills and obtain recognised qualifications, while simultaneously earning a wage. Aside from official qualifications, many key out-of-town players offer continuous training and development within normal roles. It is often recognised that offering apprenticeships and training programmes helps to retain employees, encouraging them to consider their role within that organisation as a career, rather than ‘just a job’. This reflects the opportunities within the out-of-town retail sector for longevity and progression towards meaningful careers. ASSET MANAGEMENT The final category of employment studied were those employed by third firms to carry out leasing, investment and legal services. While not directly employed by retail parks, there are several employees within third party property agencies whose jobs depend solely on the out-of-town industry; for instance, surveyors on both the leasing and investment sides who work purely within the accessible retail sector. Additionally, T otal No. OOT Com pany employees working in supermarket teams are largely dependent on Em ployees JLL 31 the out-of-town sector. Savills 28 To collect this data CBRE looked at membership of Accessible Retail. CBRE 21 GL Hearn 19 As an official body for the industry CBRE felt that this would give an Colliers International 18 accurate indication of the number of people employed on the agency Mason Partners 15 DTZ 14 Wilkinson William s 13 Eric Young & Co 12 Edgerley Sim pson Howe 12 ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector Figure 13: Top ten employers in out-of-town asset management (Accessible Retail. 2015)
CBRE side of out-of-town retail, including those employed in supermarket teams. CBRE calculated the number of employees in third-party organisations across the UK to be 560 in total. There are several key organisations with a significant numbers of employees in the accessible retail sector. The top ten agencies in terms of number of employees in out-of-town are shown in the table on the right. While many of these agencies are headquartered in London, Total No. OOT % of Location several of the largest firms have offices throughout the UK. Em ployees Em ployees Additionally, several of the smaller surveying firms are located in London 297 52.8% Edinburgh 32 5.7% smaller regional towns. Manchester 27 4.8% Birm ingham 25 4.4% The table to the left shows the top ten locations in terms of number Leeds 22 3.9% of employees in out-of-town retail agency. Bristol 17 3.0% Glasgow 17 3.0% While, the majority of agency jobs can be found in and around Liverpool 16 2.8% London, the sector is increasingly successful at employing people Surrey 13 2.3% in regions such as West Midlands and the North West. In these Chester 8 1.4% Figure 14: Top ten locations of employees in out-of- areas, where employment has traditionally been in heavy town asset management (Accessible Retail, 2015) industries and manufacturing, the proliferation of surveying jobs Page 19 helps to diversify the regions’ economies, offering opportunities for highly paid, high skilled jobs to local residents. CALCULATING EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE 4.0 Results and Findings TOTAL NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES Compiling findings from each category of employment, CBRE have calculated that the total number of employees dependent on the UK accessible retail sector is as follows: Phase of Em ploym ent Sub- sector No. Jobs Construction Figure 15: Number of employees in each Jobs phase of the retail park 2,159 lifecycle Planning & Technical Jobs 277 Pre Reta il Fit- out jobs 1,146 All 3,582 In- store employees 604,766 Reta il Facilities 858 All 605,624 O c c u p ier H ea d O ffic e All 106,859 La n d lord H ea d O ffic e All 6,239 A sset Ma n a g emen t All 562 T ota l 722,867 Page 20 In total, the sector employs almost 723,000 people in total every year. It is clear that jobs within the stores themselves make up the majority of the overall employment; however head office jobs among both occupiers and landlords still supply a significant number of jobs. 4.0 RESULTS AND FINDINGS WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE UK ECONOMY? One of the key findings from this study is the diversity of the Accessible Retail sector and the employment opportunities that it offers. Firstly, it is worth nothing that at over 700,000 employees, the sector accounts for almost a fifth of all people employed in UK retail (4.41 million; Commons Library, 2015) and 2.3% of all people employed in the UK (31.1 million; ONS, 2015). This compares with the big four banks – Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland who, in total, employ almost 598,000 people worldwide. The number of people employed in UK out-of-town retail also exceeds the global workforce of eleven FTSE 100 listed companies, including Royal Mail, Associated British Foods and GlaxoSmithKline. Secondly, the sector offers jobs at all skill levels – manual labour in the construction and fit-out phases, low-skilled retail jobs in customer service and hospitality, white collar administrative jobs, a variety of head office roles including HR, PR, operations and logistics, as well as highly skilled jobs in surveying and consultancy. Consequently, out-of- town retail is a key component of the UK economy. Providing employment for a vast range of people, including students, working parents, and those nearing retirement, from people with little to no educational attainment to those with university degrees and professional qualifications, the industry provides one of the broadest sources of employment in the UK. Through offering employment in sectors such as property, marketing and merchandising, a wide range of educational disciplines can be applied to jobs in out-of-town retail. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE Additionally, the spread of accessible retail throughout the UK mean that the sector employs people from all stretches of the country. The industry is not elitist – it does not solely offer jobs in London and the south-east, as many industries do. Planning, construction and retail jobs in particular are evenly spread across the county. Through many occupiers and landlords locating head offices in provincial towns, the sector is able to bring high-skilled jobs with good career progression to areas which generally see limited interest from large multi-nationals. This is particularly significant when we consider the opportunities for training and apprenticeship schemes offered by a number of key retail park players. As demand for retail park space grows among both consumers and occupiers, vacancy rates are likely to continue to plummet in the coming years. With more units actively trading, employment opportunities will be ever greater. Page 21 4.0 RESULTS AND FINDINGS ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE 5.0 Pure Play In order to understand the relative employment benefits created by different retail channels, CBRE have also undertaken research in order to estimate the number of people employed by pure play retailers. We have collated data on several of the UK’s largest online retailers in terms of sales, including Amazon, Shopdirect, Ocado and Asos, on the number of people employed. As with the ‘one-step removed’ occupier staff in the out-of-town sector, only the delivery and logistics staff employed directly by the retailers have been included, rather than including contractors who are not wholly focussed on the delivery of online orders from these retailers. CBRE have examined the relationship between the revenue of each retailer and the number of employees. While the employment densities inevitably vary depending on the type of good sold, due to the volume of sales, the number of people needed to handle each item and the number of items which can be delivered in one journey, it was found that annual revenue had a very strong positive relationship with the number of employees, with an RSQ value of 0.861. This has been used to create a regression equation to estimate the total number of people employed in pure play retail. Using an annual sales figure of £41.9 billion (Conlumino, 2015), CBRE have calculated that the pure play sector employs around 61,000 people. This compares with out-of-town sales of £94.7 billion (Conlumino, 2015) and a workforce of 723,000. This means that out-of-town employs a significantly greater number of people for each pound of revenue generated. CBRE have calculated that pure play employs one person for every £1.8 million generated, whereas out-of-town retail employs one person for every £131,000 generated. Page 22 While for pure-play we have only calculated those employed directly by the retailer, this still compares with over 5.0 PURE PLAY 600,000 people in out-of-town retail when looking at those that are employed solely within the shops. In terms of contribution to the economy, pure play clearly offers far fewer employment opportunities. Aside from offering a smaller number of jobs, the range of roles on offer is also markedly more limited. While these retailers undeniably offer a significant number of manual jobs and some white collar head office roles in departments such as merchandising and marketing, the range of sectors covered is much narrower. For instance, there is not a significant opportunity to find employment in planning and construction, nor is there great reliance on third party professional services firms such as leasing and investment agents, further reducing the range of employment on offer. In addition, the nature of the jobs on offer greatly restricts the type of people who are suitable for the roles. A large proportion of work within the pure play sector is manual labour, for example ‘pickers’ within distribution centres and those who work in delivery. As these jobs are often physically demanding, they tend to be more suitable for particular demographics rather than appealing to workers from all walks of life . Consequently, where the out-of-town retail sector offers flexible working which can support older generations and ‘nearly retirees’, these people are often less suitable for a number of roles within pure play retail. In addition, while there has been much debate surrounding technology, and in particular e-commerce, infiltrating traditional bricks-and-mortar retail, we believe that the out-of-town retail sector as a whole is well-placed to take advantage of these developments, rather than falling victim of changing shopping habits. Consequently, we believe the employment opportunities offered by out-of-town retail will be defensive against growth in online retail and jobs will be sustained going forwards. In contrast, many of the country’s largest online retailers are constantly driving ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE towards further technological advancements, for example Amazon and Google’s attempts to develop self-driving vehicles and delivery drones have been well-documented in recent years. While these technologies seem years away from fruition, the impact on jobs if and when they are implemented would be substantial. This could be considered in contrast to the impact of technology on out-of-town brick-and-mortar stores; whilst carrying out primary research at an Argos store in a prominent north London location, it was highlighted that that store was the home delivery hub for all of north London. In addition to the staff employed in customer-facing and back-of-house roles, an extra twenty people were employed at that location purely to handle deliveries. Furthermore, the customer service offer, lacked by pure play retailer, is the key differentiator for bricks-and-mortar as it increasingly competes with e-commerce for consumers. Amazon and Google have recently ventured into bricks-and-mortar stores in Indiana and London respectively, reflecting the importance of customer service, the need to provide consumers with an ‘experience’, rather than just a marketplace and to create a strong brand. As stores seek to strengthen their position against e-commerce, in-store roles will be crucial to ensuring that retailers drive footfall into their stores. In conclusion, both the number and type of employment opportunities offered by the pure play sector are much more limited than in out-of-town retail. Out-of-town accounts for almost a quarter of all retail employees, offering work across a huge swathe of sectors, employing a range of demographics and skill levels. In contrast, pure play employs far fewer people, in a narrow range of sectors, with a more limited skill set. Compounding our findings is the notion Page 23 that jobs within pure play are at high risk of automation. While the pressure of technology makes the in-store experience ever more significant and actually helps to cement the need for in-store employees, the threat of new 5.0 PURE PLAY developments means that jobs within the pure play sector could become incredibly vulnerable. ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE 6.0 Disclaimer & Contact Details Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. The material provided by us is intended for the sole use of the person or firm to whom it is provided. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and are our best estimate of the future performance of the market. Page 24 For more information regarding this report, please contact: 6.0 DISCLAIMER & CONTACT DETAILS Martin Summerscales Amy Bell Head of Retail Consultancy, CBRE Junior Retail Consultant, CBRE T: 020 7182 2041 T: 0207182 2493 M: 07771 897 875 E: Martin.Summerscaleso@cbre.com E: Amy.Bell@cbre.com ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
DO NOT DELETE CBRE A. Table showing calculation of fit-out and refurbishment employees APPENDICE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM S ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE A. Table showing calculation of fit-out and refurbishment employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE A. Table showing calculation of fit-out and refurbishment employees NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE B. Table showing classification of product categories NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE B. Table showing classification of product categories NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE C. Table showing calculation of employees in-store within the ‘Other’ category NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE D. Table showing calculation C. minimum number of employees of employees in-storeset for each within category the ‘Other’ category Minim um No. Category Em ployees Used Big Box 5 Catering 5 Fast Food 9 Furniture 3 General Merchandise 4 Grocery 5 Leisure 4 Showroom 10 Warehouse 5 Other N/A NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SET FOR EACH CATEGORY D. TABLE SHOWING MINIMUM ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
CBRE E. Table showing estimation C. calculationofofhead office staff employees among in-store within occupiers the ‘Other’incategory the ‘Other’ category E. TABLE SHOWING ESTIMATION OF HEAD OFFICE STAFF AMONG OCCUPIERS IN THE ‘OTHER’ CATEGORY ! Accessible Retail: Defining the employment value of the Accessible Retail Sector
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