A SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF PARTY LEADERSHIP INFLUENCING VOTING BEHAVIOR IN TRADITIONAL COMMUNITIES OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA DISTRICT DIR UPPER
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Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews
eISSN: 2395-6518, Vol 9, No 2, 2021, pp 160-166
https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9216
A SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF PARTY LEADERSHIP INFLUENCING
VOTING BEHAVIOR IN TRADITIONAL COMMUNITIES OF KHYBER
PAKHTUNKHWA DISTRICT DIR UPPER
Najib Khan1*, Muhammad Jawad2, Mussawar Shah3, Saima Sarir4, Naushad Khan5
1*
Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Peshawar, Pakistan; 2,4Lecturer, Department of
Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Peshawar, Pakistan; 3Professor, Department of Rural Sociology, University of
Agriculture, Peshawar, Pakistan; 5Assistant Professor, Institute of Development Studies, University of Agriculture,
Peshawar, Pakistan.
Email: 1*najeebuom@yahoo.com, 2mjawadukhel@aup.edu.pk, 3dr.mussawarshah@aup.edu.pk, 4saima_shehab@yahoo.com,
5
drkhan@aup.edu.pk
Article History: Received on 19th February 2021, Revised on 16th March 2021, Published on 22nd March 2021
Abstract
Purpose of the study: Voting Behavior is the combination of social, psychological, and attitudinal factors leading to a vote
in an election. Thus, the central aim of the current research study was to analyze the influence of party leadership on voting
behavior.
Methodology: Due to the diverse picture of the study area, a multistage stratified sampling technique was used to get more
reliable information from 317 sample respondents including (212 males and 105 females). Data was collected through a pre-
tested interview schedule; to determine the association between the dependent variable (voting behavior) and independent
variable (party leadership) chi-square test was applied.
Main findings: The association of voting behavior was significant between voting behavior and preference of local leaders
in the election (P=0.024), leader’s inspiration in voters’ constituency is counted in the electoral process (P=0.011), those
leaders who work for public welfare (P=0.000), past performance of the leaders is your major concern (P=0.001), to
influence voters by all means (P=0.048), commitment and devotion of the leaders (P=0.040) and dynamic leaders are
symbols of development for society (P=0.554).
Applications of this study: Results as a whole indicate a significant role of party leadership in influencing voters. People
generally cast vote to candidates who are local, have influence in the constituencies and did public welfare schemes in past
and shows commitment and devotion. The findings of the study will be helpful in policymaking.
Novelty/Originality of this study: This study attempts to explore new factors that contributed to individual voting behavior.
Further, the present paper is unique in the sense that it is based on opinions and responses collected directly from the voters
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
Keywords: Political Party, Leadership, Voting Behavior, Association, Chi-square, Constituencies, Devotion.
INTRODUCTION
Voting Behavior in fact is the combination of social, psychological, and attitudinal factors leading to a vote in an
election(Anil, 2018). Attitudinal factors during this process, assess and analyze the individual characters and qualities of the
candidates along with the assessment of government efficiency, party identifications; orientations of specific policy
regarding issues and ideology for choosing a candidate from different political parties. Social factors on the other hand cover
the role of region, race, religion, and social class in voting behavior, whereas the emotion and feelings come under
psychological influences (Durotoye, 2014). Leadership traits play a vital role in voter’s inclination to a particular political
party. Different individual features are predicted by voters from the candidates which might impact for voter’s voting choice
(Costa & Ferreira da Silva, 2015; Macapagal, 2006). The other factors include a person’s leadership, the personal inspiration
of a candidate in a community and constituency, his/her previous performance, and position of their political parties in the
national political scenario. Positive response in all these factors enhances the chance of success of a candidate in the election.
Leaders generally stress several policies, planning, approaches, and practices during election campaigns. During this process
gatherings and rallies are arranged, charming and delightful slogans are chanted and corner and street-based meetings are
organized to maximize the involvement of baradari members and their heads. It is further supplemented by the door to door
campaigns to attract voters. Use of print and electronic media, distribution, and circulation of party vision, mission, and
manifestoes, issuance of party cards to voters, designing different party posters, distribution of handbills, leaflets, pamphlets,
and party symbols are the other means to support their leaders and parties. To get the voter’s support against the opponent
candidate negative campaign is also propagated to influence the voting behavior (Anil, 2018; Usman, 2011; Zhou et al.,
2020).
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eISSN: 2395-6518, Vol 9, No 2, 2021, pp 160-166
https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9216
The capability, character, and charisma of leadership are significant traits in attracting, influencing, and determining voting
behavior. Economic status and party affiliation have emerged as the new traits of leaders in modern politics(Miller et al.,
1986). Moreover, House and Shamir (1993) hold the view that charming, transformational, and visionary leadership‘s
approach enhances motivational mechanism which in turn influences the supporter’s perception to make a dedicated decision
in favor of the political party. For influencing voters, party workers usually organize rallies under the instructions of their
leaders to show that they are supporting and promoting the party vision, plan and manifesto. During this process, they prefer
to work under charismatic leaders to influence more voters. In addition, the recent work of Kachii (2018) stated that experts
and anchorpersons have suggested that the political campaign is based to generate trust in voters to a large extent. Value
resemblance further plays a significant role in the transformation of the party slogans. The voters are mainly interested in the
welfare of the common man. This has been further proved as a key mechanism in motivating the voters in the elections.
Likewise, voting behavior is almost directed towards the selection of those leaders who work for the public welfare and
development. Voters check candidate’s pro-social performance as well as their achievement in a cognitive capability test
earlier to the election. Consequently, self-directed candidates have the motivation to act in a pro-social attitude, to visualize it
as being public-spirited or charismatic leaders(Markussen & Tyran, 2017). Furthermore, Adeyemi and Gbadeyan (2010)
stated that popular advertisements have become the most commonly applicable practice in order to develop a more
constructive picture for the candidate and a more negative picture for the opposition. Moreover, Sauter and Bruns (2013)
viewed that in the current scenario political parties and their candidates throughout the world consume their economic
resources on the advertisement and political campaigns to make themselves more favorite brands to the general electorates.
In general elections the questions which are associated with the voting behavior of the electorates that why the voters cast
votes in favor of a particular candidate.
This research paper is unique in the sense that it is based on opinions and responses collected directly from the voters in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Also, this study proceeded with the following objectives.
Objectives of the Study
1. To explore the influence of party leadership on voting behavior.
2. To measure the association between party leadership and voting behavior based on gender.
METHODOLOGY
A cross-sectional study was carried out at District Upper Dir, KP, Pakistan. This kind of study is usually carried out in social
science(Ullah & Muhammad, 2020). Being the major area, Upper Dir has a number of characteristics and features regarding
voting behavior. It is one of the regions of KP, which is traditional in many ways particularly in connection with voting
behavior. The topography of the district, following of Pakhtunwali (unwritten codes of life), and deep religious connection
makes a strong impact on voting behavior in the study area. A very large majority of the people belong to a single tribe, namely,
Yousaf Zai followed by Maliks, Khans, Sahaibzadas, Gujars, Mians, Vardaghs, Roghanies, sheikhs, and katanies, etc.
Biradarim and dynastic politics were also common features of the area. Religion, political socialization, and the existence of
political parties also play an important role (Khan et al., 2018).
Table 1: Proportional allocation of sample size in various villages of selected UCs in the study area
S. No Tehsil UC Villages within UC Households Sample size
1 Dir Qulandai Panakot Payeen 134 24
Nargah 90 16
2 Wari Kotkay Mira No. 1 134 24
Kasono 98 17
3 Barawal Sundrawal Tanai 105 18
Topikarkot 194 34
4 Sheringal Sawnai Achar payeen 279 49
Jatkool 103 18
5 Kalkot Doog Dara Batawar 114 20
Pitaw Kateer 152 27
6 Larjam Bibyawar Amlook Nar 273 48
Loi BABA 127 22
Total 1803 317
Description and Analysis of Table 1: District Upper Dir consisted of 120228 households. It comprised of six (06) tehsils
namely, Dir, Wari, Barawal, Sheringal, Kalkot, and Larjam with a total number of thirty-two (32) union councils (Statistics,
161|https://giapjournals.com/hssr/index © Khan et al.Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews
eISSN: 2395-6518, Vol 9, No 2, 2021, pp 160-166
https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9216
2017). Presently, the political leadership belongs to all the tehsils in the district. In order to get the overall picture of the
community’s perception about voting behavior, one union council from every tehsil had been selected randomly. Union
councils named Qulandai, Kotkay, Sundrawal, Sawnai, Doog Dara, and Bibyawar respectively. Furthermore, two villages each
selected randomly from each of the sampled union councils to get the community’s perception about voting behavior at the
village level. That describes the total households and sample size as well (Ullah, Liqat Ali, et al., 2020). A sample size of 317
Households was selected based on Sekaran (2003) criteria.
Furthermore, the sample size is proportionally allocated to each union council and respective villages. Data was collected from
both genders however, due to the prevalence of socio-cultural norms three females were first briefed and collected the data from
female respondents particularly. The collected data was analyzed at three levels (univariate, bivariate, and multivariate
analysis). At bi-variate and multivariate analysis, the Chi-Square test was applied. At the uni-variate level frequency and
percentage were presented, at bivariate analysis association between political socialization and voting behavior was analyzed
and at multi-variate level analysis, respondents’ gender was kept as control variables to find the association between
independent and dependent variables. see (Ullah et al., 2021; Ullah, Muhammad, et al., 2020)
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Table 2: Perception of the sampled respondents about party leadership
S. Statements Response Total
No. Yes No Uncertain
1 You prefer local leaders in the election. 283 31 (9.8%) 03 (.9%) 317
(89.3%) (100%)
2 Leaders’ personal inspiration in your constituency is counted 251 55 (17.4%) 11 (3.5%) 317
in electoral process. (79.2%) (100%)
3 You cast your vote to those leaders who work for public 285 30 (9.5%) 02 (.6%) 317
welfare. (89.9%) (100%)
4 Past performance of the leaders is your major concern in 267 46 (14.5%) 04 (1.3%) 317
casting vote to a candidate. (84.2%) (100%)
5 Leadership has a great impact in propagating the party 276 32 (10.1%) 09 (2.8%) 317
mission through a proper advertisement. (87.1%) (100%)
6 Majority of the leaders try to influence voters by all means. 262 48 (15.1%) 07 (2.2%) 317
(82.6%) (100%)
7 You are more concerned about commitment and devotion of 268 46 (14.5%) 03 (.9%) 317
the leaders. (84.5%) (100%)
8 Dynamic leaders are symbols of development for the society. 287 23 (7.3%) 07 (2.2%) 317
(90.5%) (100%)
Values in the table present frequency while values in the parenthesis indicate percentage.
Description and Analysis of Table 2: Results in table 2 reveal that 89.3% of the sampled respondents had the view that
they prefer local leaders in the election, where 9.8% answered no and .9% optioned uncertainly(Montiel, 2002). Similarly,
stated that politics in the Philippines is a personal, familiar, and cultural phenomenon. A candidate's commands in the local
language not only connect him/her but also establishes interaction with the followers at a personal level. Additionally, a
candidate belonging to a political clan, voters presume that the position of the candidate is running for their welfare. Because
of this belief, the voters prefer him/her personally rather than politically. Results further show 79.2% of the sampled
respondents had the opinion that leaders’ personal inspiration in the constituency, is counted in the electoral process, 17.4%
did not agree while 3.5% were uncertain. Similarly, Usman (2011) called leadership personal inspiration such as candidate
belonging to the community and constituency his/her previous performance and position of political parties in national
political scenario enhances the chance of success of a candidate in the election. Leaders generally stress a number of policies,
planning, approaches, and practices during election campaigns. Additionally, 89.9% of the sampled respondents optioned
that they cast their vote to leaders, who work for public welfare, 9.5% were against this statement while .6% were uncertain.
Kachii (2018) in this regard stated that when the political campaign is based on enhancing the living standard of the voters
through similar slogans generates trust in voters. The same value further plays a significant role in the transformation of the
party slogans and focusing on the welfare of common people. 84.2% of the sampled respondents viewed that past
performance of the leaders is their major concern while casting vote to a candidate, 14.5% answered no while, 1.3%
answered uncertainly. Markussen and Tyran (2017) in this regard stated that voters check the candidate’s pro-social
performance and their achievements before the election. Consequently, self-directed candidates have the motivation to act in
a pro-social attitude, i.e. to visualize being public-spirited or charismatic leaders. Results further show that 87.1% of the
sampled respondents agreed with the statement that leadership had a great impact in propagating the party mission through a
162|https://giapjournals.com/hssr/index © Khan et al.Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews
eISSN: 2395-6518, Vol 9, No 2, 2021, pp 160-166
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proper advertisement, 10.1% disagreed and 2.8% were not sure about the statement. Similarly,Adeyemi and Gbadeyan
(2010) stated that popular advertisement has become the most commonly applicable practice in order to develop a more
constructive picture of the candidate and a more negative picture of the opponents. In response to another statement that
majority of the leaders try to influence voters, by all means, 82.6% of the sampled respondents were in favor of it, 15.1%
were against while, 2.2% replied uncertainly. Opeibi (2004) found that the majority of the political leaders use their energy
in political rallies and special speeches delivered to attract the public in the elections. This is further supported by Baines et
al. (2003) who found that political leaders are using social websites such as Twitter, Facebook, and youtube to hold up their
political manifesto to engage with other stakeholders in the political matters of public importance. Further, 84.5% of the
sampled respondents responded yes to the statement that they are more concerned about the commitment and devotion of the
leaders, 14.5% replied no while, .9% responded uncertainly. Similar results are presented by House and Shamir (1993) in
which they argued that charming, transformational, and visionary leadership attitudes enhance motivational mechanisms
which in turn influence the supporter perception to make a dedicated decision in favor of the political party they belong.
Furthermore, 90.5% of the sampled respondents affirmed that dynamic leaders are symbols of development for society, 7.3%
did not think so while 2.2% were uncertain. Findings were supported by Kitschelt (1995) who believed that leadership also
plays a central role in shaping voting behavior in a political system, where a strong and effective leader has been the symbol
of success in modern democracies and party-based politics.
Table as a whole reports that a leader’s constituency, his/her personal inspiration, belief in public welfare, his/her
commitment, and devotion were the major motivational points for the respondents. The leaders on their part also tried to
influence their voters by using all means to get elected.
Table 3: Association between party leadership and voting behavior
S.No. Statement Voting behavior Total Chi-square P= value
Yes No Uncertain
1. You prefer local leaders in the election.
Yes 206 (65.0%) 66 (20.8%) 11 (3.5%) 283 (89.3%) 2= 11.250
No 18 (5.7%) 9 (2.8%) 4 (1.3%) 31 (9.8%) (0.024)
Uncertain 1 (0.3%) 1 (0.3%) 1 (0.3%) 3 (0.9%)
2. A leader’s personal inspiration in your constituency is counted in the electoral process.
Yes 176 (55.5%) 64 (20.2%) 11 (3.5%) 251 (79.2%) 2= 13.158
No 42 (13.2%) 11 (3.5%) 2 (0.6%) 55 (17.4%) (0.011)
Uncertain 7 (2.2%) 3 (0.9%) 1 (0.3%) 11 (3.5%)
3. You cast your vote on those leaders who work for public welfare.
Yes 209 (65.9%) 66 (20.8%) 10 (3.2%) 285 (89.9%) 2= 21.230
No 15 (4.7%) 10 (3.2%) 5 (1.6%) 30 (9.5%) (0.000)
Uncertain 1 (0.3%) 0 (0.0%) 1 (0.3%) 2 (0.6%)
4. Past performance of the leaders is your major concern in casting vote for a candidate.
Yes 188 (59.3%) 67 (21.1%) 12 (3.8%) 267(84.2%) 2= 18.121
No 35 (11.0%) 9 (2.8%) 2 (0.6%) 46 (14.5%) (0.001)
Uncertain 2 (0.6%) 0 (0.0%) 2 (0.6%) 4 (1.3%)
5. Leadership has a great impact in propagating the party mission through a proper advertisement.
Yes 199 (62.8%) 64 (20.2%) 13 (4.1%) 276 (87.1%) 2= 3.432
No 22 (6.9%) 8 (2.5%) 2 (0.6%) 32 (10.1%) (0.488)
Uncertain 4 (1.3%) 4 (1.3%) 1 (0.3%) 9 (2.8%)
6. The majority of the leaders try to influence voters by all means.
Yes 185 (58.4%) 65 (20.5%) 12 (3.8%) 262 (82.6%) 2= 9.583
No 37 (11.7%) 9 (2.8%) 2 (0.6%) 48 (15.1%) (0.048)
Uncertain 3 (0.9%) 2 (0.6%) 2 (0.6%) 7 (2.2%)
7. You are more concerned about the commitment and devotion of the leaders.
Yes 185 (58.4%) 68 (21.5%) 15 (4.7%) 268 (84.5%) 2= 10.035
No 38 (12.0%) 8 (2.5%) 0 (0.0%) 46 (14.5%) (0.040)
Uncertain 2 (0.6%) 0 (0.0%) 1 (0.3%) 3 (0.9%)
8. Dynamic leaders are symbols of development for the society.
Yes 204 (64.4%) 67 (21.1%) 16 (5.0%) 287 (90.5%) 2= 3.021
No 17 (5.4%) 6 (1.9%) 0 (0.0%) 23 (7.3%)
163|https://giapjournals.com/hssr/index © Khan et al.Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews
eISSN: 2395-6518, Vol 9, No 2, 2021, pp 160-166
https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9216
Uncertain 4 (1.3%) 3 (0.9%) 0 (0.0%) 7 (2.2%) (0.554)
Level of Significant= 0.5
Description and Analysis of Table 3: It shows a significant association between voting behavior and a statement that you
prefer local leaders in the election (P=0.024). Montiel (2002) in this regard noted that politics in the Philippines is counted
personal, familiar, and cultural phenomenon. People usually are more comfortable with a candidate who speaks the local
language easily and is known to the voters on a personal level. Moreover, if one belongs to a political clan, voters presume
the candidate running for a position as their birthright. Because of this, the voters prefer such persons rather than those who
are more qualified. A significant association was also found between voting behavior and a statement that a leader’s personal
inspiration in your constituency is counted in the electoral process (P=0.011). Leadership also plays a central role in shaping
voting behavior in a political system. Strong and effective leaders have been the symbol of success in modern democracies
and party-based politics (Kitschelt, 1995). Results in the mentioned table further report a highly significant association
between voting behavior and a statement that the voters cast their vote to those leaders who work for public welfare
(P=0.000). Leadership and their previous performance, rational inspiration, individualized support, strengthening common
targets, role modeling, and way of communication influence voting judgments. Most of the voters have no direct reporting
associated with the candidate. They have to draw conclusions regarding the individuals' qualities of the leadership based on
various factors such as; staged media coverage except for individual skills (Gardner & Avolio, 1998).
Results also show another significant association between voting behavior and the statement that past performance of the
leaders is your major concern in casting vote to a candidate (P=0.001). The results are endorsed by Markussen and Tyran
(2017) who indicate that voters observe pro-social performance, as well as their achievements earlier to the election and this,
is a well-known reality to the candidates and consequently, self-directed candidates have the motivation to act in a pro-social
attitude, i.e. to visualize being public-spirited or charismatic leaders.
A non-significant association was also found between voting behavior and the statement that leadership has a great impact in
propagating the party mission through a proper advertisement (P=0.488). Results did not verify the findings of the study of
Sauter and Bruns (2013) who argued that currently the political parties and their candidates throughout the world utilize their
economic resources on the advertisement and political campaigns. Opeibi (2004) in this regard stated that the majority of the
political leaders use resources in political rallies and special speeches to attract the public in the elections. Results further
report a significant association between voting behavior and a statement that the majority of the leaders try to influence
voters by all means (P=0.048). The same was the findings of Adeyemi and Gbadeyan (2010) who stated that nowadays
advertisements have become the most common practice in order to develop a more positive picture for their own candidates
and a more negative picture for the opponents. Moreover, results indicate that commitment and devotion of the leaders have
a significant association with voting behavior (P=0.040). Galeotti and Zizzo (2015) in this regard stated that voters are
informed regarding the capability and honesty of candidates in public. Most of the voters prioritize truthfulness over the
ability, skill, and vote to the most trustworthy candidate even if the candidate may not be expected to convey the maximum
financial payoff to the voters. On the other hand, a non-significant association was found with the statement that dynamic
leaders are symbols of development for society (P=0.554). The results did not endorse the findings of Kitschelt (1995) who
stated that leadership also plays a central role in shaping voting behavior in a political system. Strong and effective leaders
have been the symbol of success in modern democracies.
Results as a whole indicate a significant role of party leadership in influencing voters. People generally cast vote to
candidates who are local, have influence in the constituencies and did public welfare schemes in past and shows commitment
and devotion.
Table 4: Association between voting behavior and party leadership (controlling gender)
Gender Independent variable Dependent variable Statistics Chi-Square (P-Value)
Party leadership Voting behavior
Yes No Total
2.922 (0.087)
Male Yes 125 (74.4%) 43 (25.6%) 168 (100.0%)
No 27 (61.4%) 17 (38.6%) 44 (100.0%)
Female Yes 58 (73.4%) 21 (26.6%) 79 (100.0%)
No 15 (57.7%) 11 (42.3%) 26 (100.0%) 2.283 (0.131)
Description and Analysis of Table 4: Association between party leadership and voting behavior (controlling gender)
Results for males in table 4 describing a significant association of party leadership with voting behavior (P=0.087). In the
context of females a non-significant association of party leadership with voting behavior was found (P=0.147). Based on
164|https://giapjournals.com/hssr/index © Khan et al.Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews
eISSN: 2395-6518, Vol 9, No 2, 2021, pp 160-166
https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9216
results, the relationship between party leadership and voting behavior was non-spurious for the male while the relationship in
the above variables was spurious for females. In the majority of cases, voters check candidates’ pro-social performance as
well as their achievement in a cognitive capability. Consequently, self-directed candidates have the motivation to act in a
pro-social attitude, to visualize it as being public-spirited or charismatic leaders (Markussen & Tyran, 2017).
CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION OF THE STUDY
By the study, it was observed that voting behavior has always been a major concern of the people in democratic societies. It
becomes more important when one perceives it in the traditional societies and communities, where democratic norms have
been introduced newly. Moreover, elections have a significant role in the political system. Through the electoral process,
voters make their political judgments and elect the representatives they like. However, in the electoral process, the voting
behavior of voters is influenced by several factors including party leaders winning the battle of the ballot box.
In order to ensure creditable elections, the following recommendations were made based on current findings; Special focus
must be given on improvement of the educational system because education is the important influencing factor that brings
positive change in the behavior, manners, and other physical activities of the individuals to think broadly and act perfectly.
Education also boosts up the decisive power of voters to elect honest, committed, devoted and dynamic leadership in the
right political direction for the development of human society.
LIMITATIONS AND STUDY FORWARDS
The present study was confined to only Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which certainly limited the generalization of the study at the
international level. Further, the future study must be conducted on the Pakistan level. Some unanswered area has been
exposed in the present study for example association between voting behavior and ethnic relation.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
During this study, there was no conflict of interest among co-authors, and with any other published work, we the co-authors
attest that the current research study is genuine work. Further, this study is not supported by any funding agency.
AUTHORS CONTRIBUTION
Najib Khan and Muhammad Jawad conceived of the presented idea and developed the paper. Mussawar Shah, Saima Sarir,
and Naushad Khan are the members of the advisory board and approved this study.
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