A Predictive CSO Alert System for the Merrimack River at Newburyport
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Photo courtesy of Greg Coyle, Lowell Wastewater
A Predictive CSO Alert System for the Merrimack
River at Newburyport
Kirk Westphal, P.E. Water Resources Lead, Brown and Caldwell
Jennifer Hughes, Environmental Manager, Merrimack Valley Planning Commission
Jamie Lefkowitz. P.E. National Analytics Engineering Lead, Brown and Caldwell
Adrian D’Orlando, EIT, Environmental Engineer, Brown and Caldwell
June 9, 2021
Outline of Discussion
• Merrimack Watershed Background
• Watershed Characteristics
• CSO Communities and Efforts
• Current Status of CSO Alerts
• A Predictive Tool for CSO Impacts at Newburyport
• Collaborative Testing and Validation
• Evolution of Bacteria Monitoring in the Merrimack
Brown and Caldwell 2
The Merrimack Watershed
History of Water Uses in the Merrimack
Approximately 5,000 square miles
• MA
• NH
Significant Regional Resource
• Recreation
• Aesthetics
• Aquatic habitat
• Shell-fishing
• Drinking Water
• Treated wastewater disposal
• Hydropower
• Urban revitalization Source: CDM Smith report to USACE:
Merrimack River Watershed Assessment
Study, Final Phase I Report,
September 2006
https://www.nae.usace.army.mil/Portals/7
4/docs/Topics/MerrimackLower/PhaseIFin
al.pdf
Summary of Bacteria in the River (2006)
1. Standards have
changed, but bacterial
contamination persists
2. Multiple Sources
a) CSOs
b) Stormwater
c) Illicit Connections
Source:
CDM Smith Report to USACE: Merrimack River Assessment Study
US Army Corps of Engineers / Merrimack River Basin Community Coalition
Phase I Report, Figure 6-6, September, 2006
https://www.nae.usace.army.mil/Portals/74/docs/Topics/MerrimackLower/PhaseIFinal.pdf
Example of Recent CSO Improvements (Lowell)
Genesis of Collaboration • CSOs are a common priority • Need a better understanding of the river as a system • Funding made available through Merrimack River District Commission Photo courtesy of Merrimack River District Commission & Massachusetts Smart Growth Alliance Photo courtesy of Greg Coyle, Lowell Wastewater
Motivation for a Predictive Bacteria Tool
Top Priorities from a Multi-State Visioning Process in 2020 on the Merrimack
(Funded by the Merrimack River District Commission)
REGIONAL WATER
FUNDING REGULATIONS PUBLIC EDUCATION DATA LAND MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT
Develop a "toolbox" to
Secure funding for Designate one interstate
equitably help public Highlight the attractions of
infrastructure to enhance Establish more collaborative entity to establish common Develop standards for data
understand ALL river uses and the river to encourage
ability to comply with check-ins with EPA goals, coordinate planning, collection
how they impact the river as economic growth
regulations. help prioritize investments
individuals
Prompt legislative /
Emphasize LID & Stormwater
congressional funding for Must consider basin as a holistic system from a regulatory Work with young people to Provide better access to data
management for new
infrastructure and explore point of view - Integrated Management educate early relevant to all uses
development
restrictions
Work with land trusts and
Seek long term commitments Develop a process for Support/fund real-time
towns to acquire open space
from elected officials for Develop uniform standards consistent prioritization of dissemination of water Develop means of tracking
abutting the river (flood mgt,
interstate funding and for WWTPS and CSOs investments: "The river quality data to communties future data against baseline
ecosystems, recreation,
incremental benefits unifies but also divides." downstream
access)
Consider environmental
Rebrand the river as a valueable resource for all uses: Share
Incentivise more creative and Require more regulatory Involve more science-based justice populations with
succes stories and financial commitments, Connect the river
diversified funding streams: control, enforcement based in organizations in river mgt & respect to open space
and citizens with regional recreational opportunities (walking
P3, Impact Investing law decisions preservation, river access,
trails, bike trails, boat access, fishing, wildlife viewing, etc.)
and benefits of use
Brown and Caldwell 8
Similar Public-Facing Alert Systems
MYSTIC RIVER WATERSHED ASSOCIATION CHARLES RIVER WATERSHED ASSOCIATION
https://www.crwa.org/flagging-program.html
Both very useful and easy to understand,
but based on historic correlation between
https://mysticriver.org/boatingadvisory rain and bacteria levels
Brown and Caldwell 9
What is needed for the Merrimack
• Potential impacts from any or all of the 5 CSO communities,
up to 80 miles away in Newburyport
• Science-based accounting of loading, travel time, decay,
and dispersion
• Too many variables to estimate with correlation
• Need to account for periods of 1-7 days after each CSO event
• Need to account for cumulative impacts of CSO discharges
• Predictions of when CSO-related bacteria may arrive at
key recreational areas, and for how long
Brown and Caldwell 10CSO Reporting Requirements
CURRENT REPORTING BY SUMMER 2022
• Public notification when a discharge • Issue advisory of overflow within 2
begins hours of detection
• Provide updates them 8 hours until it
• Public notification when a discharge ends stops
• Volume estimates are included in year- • The advisory must include:
end summaries • discharge location
• Many communities are reporting earlier • date and duration
than required • estimated volume
• affected waters
• any precautionary measures that must be
taken to avoid health risks
Note that this reporting references • and a statement on whether the
the time and location of each discharge consists of untreated sewage
discharge, but NOT the downstream • Municipalities will be required to notify
impacts or duration of impacts the two largest news organizations in
the community as well.
Brown and Caldwell 11A Predictive Tool for CSO Impacts
Utilization of Existing Information
Electronic Notification of CSO Start/Stop
Estimate CSO
Volumes and
Bacteria Loads
Initial
Travel
E. Coli Dispersion Decay
Time
Conc
Collect River
Flow Data
Automatically
E.Coli from
CSOs in
Newburyport
Low Risk Elevated Risk
Brown and Caldwell 13Mechanistic Representation of the River Brown and Caldwell 14
Planned Early Alert Web Portal Brown and Caldwell 15
Status of the System
• The System was finished in June 2020
• It has been running live on Brown and Caldwell servers
through the summer and into spring 2021
• Access to daily alerts has been provided to MVPC, City of
Newburyport, and MRWC
• MRWC has coordinated field sampling events to help
validate the system
• 3 events which helped validate the “Low Potential Risk” status
• 1 event which helped validate the “Elevated Potential Risk” status
• Collaborating with MRWC to finalize validation
Brown and Caldwell 16Collaborative Testing and Validation
Desktop Comparison to Historic CSO Events Brown and Caldwell 18
Field Validation: 4 Events
CSO Status in
Did Discharge Occur?
Newburyport
Event Date River Flow (cfs)
Number Nashua Lowell Lawrence Haverhill Tool Field
7/22/2020 to
1
7/23/2020
~2,500 Yes Yes Yes Yes • •
2 8/4/2020 1,270 Not Yet Reported No No Yes • •
3 9/10/2020 ~2,500 Not Yet Reported Yes Yes Yes • •
4/29 – 4/30
4
2021
~10,000 Yes Yes Yes • •
Consider Elevated Risk for any prediction over 100 (correct order of magnitude)
Consider Elevated Risk for any prediction over 100 in West Newbury (tidal uncertainty)
Brown and Caldwell 19Field Validation: July 2020 (Low Flow)
2500
7_16_2020
E. Coli Concentration (CFU/100mL)
2000 7_23_2020
7_24_2020
1500
7_27_2020
1000 Geometric Mean,
E Coli Threshold
500
0
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Distance from Mouth of River (mi)
Brown and Caldwell 20Field Validation: August 2020 (Low Flow)
10000
Single Sample, E Coli Threshold
Geometric Mean, E Coli Threshold
E. Coli Concentration (CFU/100mL)
8_7_2020
1000 8_6_2020
8_5_2020
100
10
1
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Distance from Mouth of River (mi)
Brown and Caldwell 21Field Validation: April 2021 (High Flow)
4/30/2021 Validation Test
10000
Methuen, 5500.0
Haverhill, 2,500
1000
West Newbury, 812
E. Coli: cfu/100mg
Newburyport, 143
100
10
1
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
RIVER MILES FROM AMOSKEAG DAM
Simulated Measured THRESHOLD
Brown and Caldwell 22Performance Summary
Newburyport Early Alert Tool - Validation within +/- 1 Order of Magnitude
1000000
100000
10000
1000
E.Coli (cfu/100ml)
100
10
1
0
0
Brown and Caldwell Sim Minus 1 OM Simulated Sim Plus 1 OM Measured 23Evolution of Bacterial Monitoring
Next Steps
BC Server Adjustments MRWC Public Access
System will Consider possible System Public access will
remain on BC adjustments to scheduled to be granted upon
Server until July threshold criteria transfer to MRWC mutual agreement
2021 •Indicators at West in July 2021 between
Newbury (account for Newburyport,
tidal uncertainty) MVPC, MRWC, and
•Field monitoring for BC after the
tidal influence and transfer
non-CSO sources
Hopes for beyond this first phase:
• Include alerts for upstream communities?
• Migrate to real-time bacteria monitoring.
Brown and Caldwell 25Thank you to those who enabled and supported this work:
MERRIMACK RIVER DISTRICT COMMISSION
Senator Diana DiZoglio
Representative James Kelcourse
City of Manchester, NH
City of Nashua, NH
MERRIMACK VALLEY PLANNING COMMISSION
Lowell Water
Lane Glenn
Greater Lawrence Sanitary District
Jennifer Hughes
City of Haverhill
Theresa Park
MERRIMACK RIVER WATERSHED COUNCIL
Matt Thorne
Susie Bresney
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