A Nation's Trajectory - Canada in 2067: Association for Canadian Studies
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SPRING / SUMMER 2018
Canada in 2067:
A Nation’s Trajectory
RANDY BOSWELL WILLIAM WATSON CHRISTIAN BOURQUE
ANIL ARORA JACK JEDWAB JOHN MILLOY
IRVIN STUDIN MONICA BOYD DON KERRTABLE OF CONTENTS
3 INTRODUCTION
BRAVELY IMAGINING WHAT CANADA MIGHT BE LIKE IN 50 YEARS
Randy Boswell
7 A TRIBUTE TO A PIONEERING FIGURE IN CANADIAN DEMOGRAPHY:
RÉJEAN LACHAPELLE (1945-2018)
9 STATSCAN LOOKS TO THE FUTURE: ‘PRESSURES AND OPPORTUNITIES
THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE’
A conversation with Anil Arora
14 ENVISIONING A MORE POPULOUS, COMMANDING CANADA — IF IT SURVIVES
A conversation with Irvin Studin
18 CANADA 2068: UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, SQUARED AND CUBED
William Watson
22 CANADA 2067: GENERATIONAL, REGIONAL AND LANGUAGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR
WHEN IDENTIFYING FUTURE PRIORITIES
Jack Jedwab
32 THE AGING OF THE POPULATION AND GENERATIONAL SHIFTS: CANADA 2067
Monica Boyd
38 CANADIANS’ EXPECTATIONS ABOUT 2067
Christian Bourque
41 IT'S 2067 AND CANADA'S MINISTER FOR LONELINESS IS WORKING OVERTIME
John Milloy
45 POPULATION GROWTH, CANADA’S ENERGY TRANSITION AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
A HIGH RISK FUTURE?
Don KerrCANADIAN ISSUES IS PUBLISHED BY
ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN STUDIES BOARD OF DIRECTORS Canadian Issues is a quarterly publication of the Association
Elected November 3, 2017 for Canadian Studies (ACS). It is distributed free of charge to
individual and institutional members of the ACS. Canadian
CELINE COOPER
Montreal, Quebec, Chairperson of the Board of Directors,
Issues is a bilingual publication. All material prepared by
Columnist at the Montreal Gazette, PhD Candidate, the ACS is published in both French and English. All other
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Quebec Superior Court (retired), Montreal, Quebec Association for Canadian Studies is a voluntary non-profit
YOLANDE COHEN organization. It seeks to expand and disseminate knowledge
Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec about Canada through teaching, research and publications.
JOANNA ANNEKE RUMMENS Canadian Issues acknowledges the financial support of the
Professor, York University, Toronto, Ontario Government of Canada through the Canada History Fund of
the Department of Canadian Heritage for this project.
LLOYD WONG
Professor, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta
THE HONOURABLE MARLENE JENNINGS
P.C., LLb.,Lawyer/Avocate, Montreal, Quebec
LETTERS
DR. AYMAN AL- YASSINI
Montreal, Quebec Comments on this edition of Canadian Issues?
We want to hear from you!
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Consultant, Chairperson of the Canadian Ethnic Media Association, Canadian Diversity / ACS
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Vaudreuil, Quebec
JACK JEDWAB SARAH KOOI CAMILAHGO. STUDIO CRÉATIF
President and CEO Senior Project Manager Design & Layout
JAMES ONDRICK VICTORIA CHWALEK
Director of Programs and Administration TranslationINTRODUCTION
BRAVELY IMAGINING WHAT CANADA
MIGHT BE LIKE IN 50 YEARS
RANDY BOSWELL
Randy Boswell is an associate professor at Carleton University’s School of Journalism
and Communication. He is a long-time Ottawa journalist who developed a unique
national history beat as a Postmedia News writer from 2003-13. He recently published
studies about Canadian environmental history in Histoire Sociale/Social History and
archaeological history in the Canadian Journal of Archaeology.
I was born in November 1966. So while I was a all of its faults) will have kept me alive long enough
babe in arms during the year Canada celebrated to join one of the nation’s fastest growing demo-
its Centennial and hosted Expo 67, my memories graphic groups: centenarians.
of that era are scant, and the only powerful emo-
tional attachment I felt then was with my mother. But what kind of country would this 100-year-old
By the time Canada marked the 150th anniversary Canadian be celebrating on July 1, 2067? Well,
of Confederation last year, I’d spent decades living according to a recent Statistics Canada population
in, writing about and contemplating this country projection, I would be one of about 80,000 people
— its present and its past — and come to the firm in my age category — but only one of about 15,000
conclusion that, for all of its faults, there was no men 100 or older. And depending on whether
better nation on Earth. Attachment to Canada? Off Canada follows StatsCan’s low-growth population
the charts. trajectory or its high-growth one, the fellow mem-
bers of my “Century Club” pick-up hockey team
And if I live to experience Canada’s bicentennial in will be among the oldest citizens in a country with
2067, I’ll probably still feel that way. For one thing, either 40 million people or something closer to 65
Canada’s famous public health system (again, for million people.
3BRAVELY IMAGINING WHAT CANADA MIGHT BE LIKE IN 50 YEARS - RANDY BOSWELL
That’s assuming hockey is still a thing in 2067. to project that line of thinking into the future,
That’s also assuming Canada is still a thing by then. inviting contributors to cast their thoughts for-
Read on, and you will hear from one of the con- ward to Canada’s bicentennial year: Where will
tributors to this volume that, based on the average the trajectory of our history take us?
life expectancy of modern nation states, Canada as
we know it today could well be on borrowed time Put another way, we wondered what a 95-year-old
by the middle of the 21st century. former prime minister named Justin Trudeau,
when reflecting in 2067 on the state of the country
Still, when it comes to predicting the shape of a both he and his father once led, might say are the
nation that far into the future, even the widest paramount concerns for the people of Canada?
margin of error can be too narrow. This country’s Would the greatest challenge be the economy or
Bicentennial is a long way off. But let’s at least the environment, intercultural or interprovincial
remain hopeful that the landmass known today as relations, technological or demographic change,
Canada will continue to occupy a good portion of a domestic or foreign affairs, or some looming chal-
habitable planet still orbiting a sun that hasn’t gone lenge we can barely glimpse today on the horizon
supernova. of the future?
With that happy place in mind, we asked con- To stimulate thinking about the realm of possibilities,
tributors for this edition of Canadian Issues/Thèmes we shared the results of a recent nationwide survey
Canadiens to bravely imagine what Canada might commissioned by the Association for Canadian
be like 50 years from now, or at least what future Studies in which more than 1,500 respondents
path the country might be on given the trends and were asked to rank what they thought would be “the
forces in evidence today, and in recent decades. To principal challenges facing Canada fifty years from
be precise, we framed the task this way: now, in 2067.”
What will be Canada’s greatest challenge — or The results of that probe are extensively explored
challenges — in the year 2067? As a nation, here in a contribution from ACS president Jack
we’ve just marked the 150th anniversary of Jedwab. In short, concerns about aging and health,
Confederation. That occasion prompted much as well as economic challenges such as employ-
reflection about our collective history, and ment and home ownership, significantly outstrip
about how the achievements and failures of the all other issues — the environment, national sec-
past shaped contemporary Canadian society. urity, cultural identity — as anticipated problem
Our most recent issue of CI/TC, in fact, explored areas. It’s no surprise, perhaps, that the top-ranked
the transformation of Canada — for women, for concerns closely match what are typically the
immigrants, for Indigenous peoples, for culture, most pressing contemporary sources of anxiety; as
for language, for human rights, for national Jedwab notes, “the natural inclination” of
unity and much more — between the 1967 Cen- respondents appears to be “to transfer current pre-
tennial and 2017 sesquicentennial. We wish occupations onto the future.”
4BRAVELY IMAGINING WHAT CANADA MIGHT BE LIKE IN 50 YEARS - RANDY BOSWELL
Pollster Christian Bourque also examines survey that regardless of Canada’s own energy-transition
results illuminating Canadians’ concerns — and strategies and population pressures, “what happens
imaginings — about the future. Among the intrigu- elsewhere will be of major consequence to Can-
ing results was a top-ranking response among adians as they approach their bicentennial year.”
three-quarters of those polled that citizens of the
country will be more environmentally conscious Former Ontario cabinet minister John Milloy,
when Canada turns 200. Meanwhile, at the low- director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Waterloo
est end of the rankings, just 57% of respondents Lutheran Seminary, raises an alarm in his essay
envisioned a nation in which people will be more about the coming epidemic of loneliness facing
conscious of gender equality — and more than Canada. Milloy, who served as provincial minister
one-quarter of those surveyed pessimistically of colleges and universities as well as community
expect less consciousness of gender equality in and social services (among other portfolios) during
2067. his time as a Liberal MPP between 2003 and 2014,
warns that contemporary symptoms of social isola-
Dr. Monica Boyd, a distinguished University of tion and alienation — from the smartphone bubbles
Toronto sociologist and demographer, highlights inhabited by so many, to the existential struggles
two of the most significant changes we can expect of churches and other traditional sites of social
to see in the structure of Canada’s population in the cohesion and community — may be harbingers of
next 50 years: the general transition to “a country even more worrisome problems as Canada’s popula-
of older persons” as the proportion of Canadians tion ages in the decades leading to 2067. To combat
aged 65 and older soars from today’s 17% to more rising loneliness, argues Milloy — who also served
than 25% by 2067; and the particularly dominant as a senior adviser to prime minister Jean Chrétien
place of today’s Millennials in that future Canada, — “government will need to work alongside groups
as this “unique birth cohort” — the children of the that connect people and build interdependence,
digital age — redefine what it means to be a senior such as volunteer groups, business and community
member of Canadian society. organizations and faith communities, all of which
create a sense of belonging.”
Western University sociologist Don Kerr, a special-
ist in examining population change in Canada, puts Economist William Watson, the high-profile news-
the country’s expected population growth by 2067 paper columnist and long-time McGill University
into a global perspective, noting that the few tens professor, states that while the Canada of 2067 is
of millions of people likely to be added to Canada’s essentially unknowable and prediction is folly, “I
population over the next 50 years will be “swamped” do suspect — I think I know — that my children
by what occurs in much more populous countries and theirs will still be concerned with three prob-
around the world, where even the lowest projections lems that have preoccupied the country since its
mean at least another one billion citizens of planet beginnings”: Canada’s relations with the U.S., the
Earth by 2067. With regards to climate change state of affairs between the country’s French- and
and other environmental implications, Kerr argues English-speaking populations, and the never-ending
5BRAVELY IMAGINING WHAT CANADA MIGHT BE LIKE IN 50 YEARS - RANDY BOSWELL
quest of all Canadians to earn a decent living. “Not operations to ready the nation for its future in a
just because I’m an economist, I’m reasonably sure data-driven world. Even as StatsCan celebrates its
material matters will still concern our own grand- 100th anniversary in 2018 as heir to the Dominion
children,” Watson concludes — while adding that, Bureau of Statistics, the federal agency (armed with
beyond such few certainties, “it’s all unknown a new mandate aimed at ensuring its arm’s-length
unknowns as far as the eye can’t see.” independence) is in the midst of transforming itself
to sustain its world-leading reputation in an era of
This edition of Canadian Issues/Thèmes Canadiens global concerns about data collection and its socially
offers two question-and-answer articles flowing responsible application. “For a statistical agency,”
from interviews with two notable thinkers about states Arora, “these are pressures and opportunities
the country’s present and future. Irvin Studin, presi- that are impossible to ignore. Our modernization
dent of the Toronto-based Institute for 21st Century efforts are to react to those pressures, which are
Questions and a leading international policy ana- very real — and, by the way, not unique to Canada.”
lyst, discusses the contentious question of Canada’s
ideal population as we head towards the country’s
2067 bicentennial. Studin helped spark a national
debate about Canada’s population by advocating for
a nation of 100 million people to help Canada bet-
ter command its own vast geography and to more
robustly assert its influence on the world stage.
“There are a whole host of other things we can
accomplish economically and socially with a lar-
ger population,” says Studin, who also commented
that the average lifespan of a modern state is only
about 60 years, and that our 150-year existence so
far is “exceptional” in global terms. “There will be
a host of challenges, to be sure, but I hope we will
be well on our way (to 100 million by 2067) and
there won’t be any debate by that point that we’ll
need a larger population to reckon with our circum-
stances.”
Finally, Canada’s Chief Statistician Anil Arora
— whose agency compiles and analyzes the con-
temporary information about Canada’s population,
economy and society that allows even the faintest
glimpses of the future to be rooted in reality — dis-
cusses how Statistics Canada is modernizing its
6A TRIBUTE TO A PIONEERING FIGURE IN CANADIAN
DEMOGRAPHY: RÉJEAN LACHAPELLE (1945-2018)
The death of Réjean Lachapelle on April 28, 2018 was a shock to the community of Canadian demographers
and to all of his colleagues and friends at Statistics Canada. He was 73 years old.
During his career as a demographer, Réjean Lachapelle contributed significantly to measuring, under-
standing and projecting the characteristics of the Canadian population. As a specialist in demolinguistics,
he introduced several concepts that are still used today in the study of behaviours and language dynamics
in Canada. With his extensive knowledge and reputation in this area, Réjean had a significant influence
on public policy and public debate about language in Canada. In addition, he contributed significantly to
Statistics Canada's census programs and population estimates.
Born in Montreal in 1945, Réjean Lachapelle studied anthropology and demography at the Université de
Montréal. His master's thesis, presented in 1971, was entitled Demographic Study of Canadian Marriage. He
then continued studies in population, genetics and epidemiology in Paris with, amongst others, the famed
Albert Jacquard.
Back in Canada, he worked as an assistant professor in the Faculty of Medicine at the University of
Sherbrooke, before holding various positions as a researcher and analyst within the Quebec government,
including with the Ministry of Immigration and Cultural Communities. He joined Statistics Canada in
1984, accepting a proposal from then-Chief Statistician Ivan P. Fellegi, where he pursued a successful
career as director of the demolinguistics division and went on to become director of the demography division.
Réjean Lachapelle also held a number of positions within the Canadian community of demographers. He
served as president of the Quebec Association of Demographers from 1976 to 1977 and was president of
7A TRIBUTE TO A PIONEERING FIGURE IN CANADIAN DEMOGRAPHY: RÉJEAN LACHAPELLE (1945-2018)
the Canadian Federation of Demography from 1990 to 1993. He was also one of the key contributors to
the World Population Congress of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population that was
held in Montreal in 1993. After retirement, he continued to serve on the Demosim Scientific Committee,
Statistics Canada's microsimulation projection model, the Advisory Committee on Statistics and Demo-
graphic Studies, and Statistics Canada's recently established Statistics Canada Advisory Committee on
Linguistic Statistics.
A veritable force of nature (he twice recovered from cancer over the last twenty years), his erudition and
the extent of his knowledge in demography, in many scientific fields and on many societal issues were
impressive and made him a model for so many to follow. Always smiling, endowed with an unusual sense
of diplomacy and a great degree of kindness, Réjean Lachapelle possessed a remarkable sense of humour
that made all contact with him so enriching and enjoyable. His presence is already missed by his many
colleagues and friends.
Laurent Martel, director, Demographics Division, Statistics Canada
Jean-Pierre Corbeil, assistant director, Division of Aboriginal and Social Statistics, Statistics Canada
8STATSCAN LOOKS TO THE FUTURE: ‘PRESSURES AND
OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE’
A CONVERSATION WITH ANIL ARORA
Anil Arora is Canada’s Chief Statistician and the head of Statistics Canada, the key federal
agency tracking the social and economic characteristics of the country — and a vital
institution for envisioning Canada’s future. In recent years, controversies over the previous
Conservative government’s decision to scrap the long-form census and the current
Liberal government’s strategy for centralizing information technology in Shared Services
Canada prompted Mr. Arora’s two predecessor chief statisticians — Munir Sheikh and
Wayne Smith — to resign their posts. Mr. Arora assumed leadership of StatsCan in
September 2016 after serving in senior management positions with Natural Resources
Canada and Health Canada between 2010 and 2016. Earlier, between 1988 and 2010,
Arora had held a variety of positions at Statistics Canada, eventually serving as director
general responsible for all aspects of the 2006 census, and as assistant chief statistician
of social, health and labour statistics from 2008 to 2010. In 2018, Statistics Canada
marks the 100th anniversary of its birth — the May 1918 founding of the Dominion Bureau
of Statistics. Mr. Arora spoke in mid-May with Canadian Issues/Thèmes Canadiens.
Q: Tell us about what’s planned to showcase democratic institution and world leader Statistics
StatsCan’s 100th anniversary this year. Canada is...
A: We started off a few weeks ago with the Gov- We’re modernizing, which is why this institution is
ernor General (Julie Payette), who came in and world-leading, because it’s always looking at where
addressed the entire institution... We’re showcasing it comes from, where it is and — knowing the winds
the importance of this institute both domestically and changes in demographic, technological and
and internationally by highlighting some of its other factors — where it needs to be. It’s not only a
achievements, some of its firsts, some of its history, year to celebrate the journey that we’ve come from.
some of its leaders. Every single month, we’re try- It’s a turning point for us for a number of reasons.
ing to get people to take pride in what an important We have an amended, strengthened Act (Bill C-36)
9STATSCAN LOOKS TO THE FUTURE: ‘PRESSURES AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE’ - A CONVERSATION WITH ANIL ARORA
and we’ve got a fairly substantive modernization would be very clear... It also establishes a Canadian
agenda that we’re launching... Statistics advisory council in law, with an obliga-
tion about the advice it gives the Chief Statistician
Q: Could you elaborate on the mandate change and or the minister, and to publish an annual report.
the modernization? This is another body in the check-and-balance, and
for transparency. The other change is in the term
A: Bill C-36 received royal assent on Dec. 14, 2017... and conditions around the tenure of the Chief Stat-
The first big change is that in law now there’s a istician — (the appointment is) no longer ‘at the
differentiation between the role of the Chief Stat- pleasure’ of the government, but it would be for a
istician and the role of the government/minister five-year renewable term.
through which Statistics Canada reports to Par-
liament. Essentially it separates the what from the Q: Tell us about the modernization agenda.
how. This is an agency that lives and dies by it being
relevant to the changing and evolving needs of this A: We’re an institution that essentially has its
nation — its economy, its society, its environment, roots in survey-taking. You can go back to 1666,
you name it... So it’s entirely reasonable for the gov- when (New France’s intendant of justice, police
ernment to ensure that the agency is at the table, and finance) Jean Talon took the first census here
involved in policy discussions, involved in even the in Canada, around Montreal. We have hundreds of
initial scoping and forward-looking agenda items. surveys that we’ve undertaken. We then started to
And then, there’s the how. How we go about pro- bring in administrative sources of data to supple-
viding good, high-quality, timely data, and how we ment and in some cases to substitute for surveys
communicate to Canadians the operations of this where it makes sense. (Editor’s note: for example,
agency based on professional statistical standards, income data is not collected via census survey but
is now — in law — the purview of the Chief Statis- via tax files).
tician.
If you look today, you’ve got your Fitbit, your
Q: If the present Act – the new Act – had been fridge, your thermostat (and other data sources).
in place when controversy erupted over the Con- Then there is so much regulatory/administrative
servative government’s scrapping of the 2011 data being harnessed. There’s so much information
long-form census, would that have unfolded in a people provide over the Web. Look at, today, this
different way? explosion of data that is coming at us from all sorts
of different sources. And juxtaposed with that is the
A: Yes, I think it would have made very clear and need for far more (understanding of) complex inter-
transparent who made the decision and why it was actions between social phenomena. For example,
being made, and then the accountability would what are the implications of housing on health? Or
have essentially lie where it ought to lie. By con- the crowding conditions in a household on a child’s
vention, we’ve operated as an arm’s length institu- educational outcomes and even their life expect-
tion. Now, even if there is an exception to that, that ancy? All of a sudden, the kinds of questions that
10STATSCAN LOOKS TO THE FUTURE: ‘PRESSURES AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE’ - A CONVERSATION WITH ANIL ARORA
are coming at us are getting more sophisticated and tion approach. We need to be far more user-centric;
sharper. And if we’ve only got limited resources to we’re a national statistical agency, in law, given the
spend, where would they be best spent to get the mandate to coordinate, integrate, un-duplicate and
best outcomes? And I don’t know if you’ve got kids, look at data that exists out there across the system.
but my kids aren’t going to sit and give you a survey We have a legal obligation to protect the privacy
response for a half an hour. Forget it. If it doesn’t fit and confidentiality (of Canadians). We need to use
on their iPhone screen and part of something fun, novel methods and technologies that exist today.
they aren’t going to do it. So, there are a number of Crowd-sourcing is an entirely acceptable and rea-
changes happening... sonable way for us to get information in real time;
web-scraping to get at things like prices and how
And that’s not to in any way negate people’s strong they’re changing over time is entirely reasonable
concerns for privacy and confidentiality protection. – using scanner data instead of sending people to
They want it all. You only want to be bothered (to retail outlets to get at what the (consumer price
give information) when it’s absolutely necessary index) might look like. I could keep going on and
and perhaps the least amount of burden. They on — (another example:) harvesting the mountains
want us to actually harvest the information that we and mountains of regulatory and administrative
already have, at the same time protecting privacy data that exist...
and confidentiality. There’s this explosion of data;
on the other hand, you’ve got the real sophisticated We are not the only game in town – we know that.
need for timely information – almost real-time We’re going to have to share and collaborate with
information. People are saying: ‘Why are you giv- those who are producing and disseminating data
ing me statistics from a month ago, or a year ago and information. We are going to have to build
or – God forbid – three years ago? I want to know the numeracy and literacy skills that are going
what’s happening today.’ Or if a government brings to be necessary in this context today of the data-
in a policy, they want to know the next day what driven society and economy. We need to make sure
is the implication of that policy, so they can adjust that there’s responsible production and use — and
and tweak. informed use — of good data, and knowing where
the limitations are and knowing where the biases
So, for a statistical agency, these are pressures and might reside in various data sources (and) the qual-
opportunities that are impossible to ignore. Our ity gaps... That’s really important as we get into arti-
modernization efforts are to react to those pressures, ficial intelligence and machine learning algorithms
which are very real — and by the way, not unique and so on...
to Canada. (Editor’s note: Arora heads a working
group on the modernization of official statistics for The last pillar, and perhaps for us in the agency
the 60-nation Conference of European Statisticians the most important one, is a modern workforce
under the auspices of the United Nations). in a modern workplace. We can’t have the kind of
technology and flexibility (we need) if we can’t get
In Canada, I’ve launched a five-pillar moderniza- people to get out of their cubicles and talk to their
11STATSCAN LOOKS TO THE FUTURE: ‘PRESSURES AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE’ - A CONVERSATION WITH ANIL ARORA
colleagues. Like I said, housing is related to health son register?... This is what happens in Scandinav-
which is related to income which is related to so ian countries, and in many European countries,
many other factors. If our people can’t get around where every individual is given a unique identifier
and talk to others and access data and keep it con- and that’s how the system then is tracked. But that’s
fidential and move around, then we are not going not something a statistical agency would impose
to attract the expertise and the talent. We are going upon Canadians. But (if a system like that was in
even beyond that. We’re working with partner insti- place), and we had, then, the authority to go in and
tutions – the universities and colleges out there... to keep it up to date, and nurture it with other pieces
make sure that data literacy, numeracy skills, good of information, then certainly we could see one day
data management are part of their curriculum. And where we could substitute going to Canadians to
we think we even need to go beyond that to the ask that information. But that’s not a decision for
K-12 system, so that as people graduate (from high the statistical agency to make on its own...
school) they have these basic skills that are going to
be critical going forward. The second thing to that is that even in our short
form, we ask a number of questions other than
Q: How does StatsCan become an even more data- just simply your name and date of birth and your
driven organization while making sure it doesn’t gender. We also ask the language questions, etc. For
have too much data about each and every one of some of those questions, it’s not clear yet where we
us? would get the equivalent amount of information. I
still think that some form of going out and getting
A: For 100 years, this is what we’ve been doing. information from Canadians in a cost-effective way
We’re the best in the world at taking two pieces of is still going to be there for quite some time.
data collected through different sources with identi-
fiable information (and figuring out) how you bring I essentially was the leader of the 2006 census
them together, how do you anonymize them, how where we redesigned the whole mechanism by
do you link them and then get at the insights. This which we take a census in Canada. Many other
is what we do day in, day out. We’re the world’s countries have leveraged on that methodology
best at those kinds of methodologies. The privacy since then... Now we don’t even mail out question-
commissioner has said essentially that this is the naires to the majority of Canadians – we send them
gold standard. a letter with a code. And in this last (2016) cen-
sus, just under 70% of Canadian households filled
Q: What happens to that every-five-year head out the questionnaire online. Plus, we have always
count? If information about Canadians can be col- continued to find the most cost-effective way to get
lated from administrative and other sources, will that kind of information. So, in that equation, we
the census possibly no longer happen? also have to look at the overall cost-effectiveness
of getting information. Information needs continue
A: A very interesting question, obviously... Can we to grow. Every census, when we go out to consult
see, one day, us moving to a synthetic or real-per- — you won’t believe — we get at least a thousand
12STATSCAN LOOKS TO THE FUTURE: ‘PRESSURES AND OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO IGNORE’ - A CONVERSATION WITH ANIL ARORA
new topics where people want us to ask a question I think it’s raising questions about what is the role
of Canadians. If truly the appetite for information of government. I see those kinds of models are chal-
from Canadians is insatiable, we have to look at lenging institutions, whether academic or govern-
what is the best mechanism to get that. The census ment... That’s why I think our modernization plans
kind of fulfils a need. are going to be so important for us to be able to look
at those (challenges) and make sure we are adding
Q: What do you think will be the biggest difference value. It’s now moving less to production (of raw
between how information is collected and used data) and more to the expertise and analytics, being
now and how it will be in 2067? able to communicate and being able to explain.
A: We’re really talking about a crystal ball here. But
let’s look at those faint signals out there that could
potentially be the predominant forces. We are see-
ing the next generation putting a lot more value on
that quid pro quo — that value proposition (between
gaining insights from data and protecting personal
privacy). They’re willing to give a little to get a little.
We all do that, too — e.g. online banking.
I do see a day when, instead of us putting infor-
mation out that says, ‘Look we were able to give
the correlation between an overcrowded house,
the income of the family, and the education, health
and income-earning outcomes,’ as a nice-to-be-able-
to-do (analysis), to really where the population is
going to say, that is the expected (analysis)...
Just like the technology of ride-sharing (e.g. Uber)
or accommodation services (e.g. Airbnb), business
models have evolved around data essentially being
the currency, and even shaking traditional institu-
tions and businesses. I think that will just accelerate
over time. I think governments will be challenged
with their traditional roles. (Editor’s note: Arora ref-
erenced here the Sidewalk Labs-led redevelopment of
part of Toronto’s waterfront in a new private-public
model for designing urban neighbourhoods).
13ENVISIONING A MORE POPULOUS,
COMMANDING CANADA — IF IT SURVIVES
A CONVERSATION WITH IRVIN STUDIN
Irvin Studin is the President of the Toronto-based Institute for 21st Century Questions,
and Editor-in-Chief & Publisher of Global Brief magazine. He has been called one of the
leading international policy thinkers of his generation. Studin has been a professor in
leading universities in North America, Asia and Europe. Studin is the co-founder of
Ukraine’s Higher School of Public Administration (Kiev). His latest book is Russia –
Strategy, Policy and Administration (Palgrave-MacMillan, 2017), and his forthcoming
book is Ten Theses on Canada in the 21st Century. He worked for a number of years in the
Privy Council Office in Ottawa, as well as in the Australian Department of the Prime
Minister and Cabinet in Canberra. For years, he has argued that Canada should strive to
become a country of 100 million people by the year 2100, kickstarting a national debate
on the question. He spoke recently with Canadian Issues/Thèmes Canadiens.
Q: You’ve held out a compelling vision of Canada as much bigger, much more capaciously, to develop
a country of 100 million people by 2100. By 2067, a national imagination of itself as a major country
depending on how things go, we’ll have moved our that sets out, as a term-setter, to do major things for
population from the present 36 million to some- itself and also for the human condition — in what
thing closer to 100 million. How far do you think promises to be a much more complex century for
the country should be towards that goal, and why? us as a country. I should say just as a proviso that I
hope we’re around as a country in 2067. That’s also
A: There are two ways of looking at the 100-million not self-evident. Countries aren’t around forever...
argument. And it’s not set in stone — it could be 80
million or 120 million. If I had my druthers, we’d be In terms of policy, let’s say we’re a country of 60
well on our way in both respects: one is the meta- million or 70 million by the year 2067. (At 100
phorical respect, which is just as important as the million, we’d be the second biggest country in the
second, the policy respect. The metaphorical idea is West – smaller than the U.S. still, but bigger than
that Canada begins to think, kinetically, like a coun- any country in Europe, with the exception of Russia.)
try that’s on its way toward 100 million – to think I think, other things being equal, we’ll be able to
14ENVISIONING A MORE POPULOUS, COMMANDING CANADA — IF IT SURVIVES - A CONVERSATION WITH IRVIN STUDIN
accomplish many more things as a country — country, and I think we’ll be in a better place, in net
across our territory and internationally. But also, terms. And there are a whole host of other things
we’ll be able to properly fend for ourselves in the we can accomplish economically and socially with
context of far greater geopolitical pressures. We’re a larger population. There will be a host of chal-
already feeling the birth pangs of these greater geo- lenges, to be sure, but I hope we will be well on
political pressures, with what’s happening in the our way (by 2067) and there won’t be any debate
United States. If you look at Canada as a bit of a by that point that we’ll need a larger population to
box geographically, the bottom border is “A” — the reckon with our circumstances.
American border — the “E” is Europe, east of New-
foundland. Those are well known to us. But there Q: Some people raise concerns about a greater
are two other new borders this century that are less population, and specifically the integration of
appreciated, and which will exert great pressure on immigrants, so perhaps you could address that.
us over the course of the coming decades. The first And picking up on another point, what do you
one is “R”, which is Russia, over the fast-melting think are the likely threats to Canada’s existence
Arctic. And we have only 115,000 people populat- by 2067?
ing all three northern territories — pitifully low if
we are going to imagine ourselves controlling the A: There are plenty. Countries don’t last as long as
northern border, or even exerting our sovereignty, we think they do in modern history. I had one of my
our national interest there. We’re going to have graduate research assistants calculate that a modern
many more people there. And moving towards the state over the last 200 years tends to last an average
60 or 70 million by 2067 will certainly help that. of about 60 years. The Soviet Union was thought
And I imagine a lot of them are going to go to the by many of its citizens to be interminable. It lasted
north. Whether we realize it now or not, we’re going only 70 years. Canada’s been around for 150. Many
to need a lot more people there. And the final side of the modern Middle Eastern states have been
is the “C”, which is China – Whitehorse is much crumbling, and they’ve generally been around for
closer to China than Sydney, Australia. So too that quantum, about 60 or 70 years. A good number
is Prince Rupert. China is now a force that we’ve of Asian and African states are quite new. All of the
never really felt in modern Canada. For the whole post-Soviet states are inherently unstable. Ukraine
150 years since Confederation, China was destabilized just had a revolution and then annexation, so it
and trying to find its feet after its defeats in the only lasted 23 years... So Canada is unusual and
Opium Wars. Now they’re back to where they think exceptional, having had both strategic and consti-
they should always have been, and we’re going to tutional stability for about 150 years. We’re pressing
have to reckon with them, in all the dimensions of our historical luck. What could change? Well, the
national strategy and policy. And we’re very close threats are external and internal. The internal one,
to them, and so you’re going to see huge northwest for now, seems obvious: the Quebec question. If
influx of demographic pressures. Quebec should ever go, I think I’ve been one of the
leaders on the public record in saying that’s the end
So we’re going to need more people in this beautiful of Canada, because we will not be able to stitch this
15ENVISIONING A MORE POPULOUS, COMMANDING CANADA — IF IT SURVIVES - A CONVERSATION WITH IRVIN STUDIN
thing back together. Canada would fall apart very among themselves. That’s going to put a lot of pres-
similarly to how the Soviet Union fell apart – into sure on us. And we may well survive. But we’re
many constituent parts. We don’t know what those going to have to think like a bigger country, at a
parts would be called, but it would be exceedingly higher standard, if we’re going to make it through
difficult for Ottawa to reassert the old legitimacy the century unscathed. I’ve been writing about it for
on Victoria and St. John’s, and Yellowknife and a decade, but I would say the American presidency
Whitehorse in the north, with the excision of one with Trump really puts all of this into relief. And
of the central parts. That could happen very quickly certainly the conflict between Russia and the West,
and at any time over the coming decades — so that’s and the brewing tensions between Washington and
always something to watch and manage. Beijing, also make the stakes very stark, if we Can-
adians have a proper appreciation of our geography
The second domestic challenge to watch for is and work from the right mental map. In other words,
the constitutional contradiction between the “two a conflict between America and China, or America
nations” idea of Canada at Confederation — English and Russia, puts us right in harm’s way, with no
and French Canada — and the idea that all of a sud- absolute guarantee of protection. Right now, we
den we’re going to resuscitate Indigenous peoples neither can imagine that scenario in which we are
into co-equals in the governance of Canada. Morally, actually threatened, nor can we imagine ourselves
it’s attractive, but strategically and constitutionally, actually being able to do anything about it.
it will be very difficult to engineer...
This is really, I would say, part of the 100-million
Externally, there are real threats. If there’s a major construct. We’re going to need to think for our-
war between Russia and Western powers, I think selves. 100 million is Canada thinking for itself...
there’s a big chance that Canada in this century
would be invaded. Same with China. We are no Q: What kind of a country do you think we have
longer very far at all from these countries and civil- to evolve into in order to confidently embrace so
izations in technological terms, or in psychological many more people? And how does this relate to the
terms. The Arctic is melting. If we don’t have proper “colonial” mindset you’ve discussed in your writing?
relations with all of these major border countries,
and if we also have an unstable, capricious or A: The colonial or quasi-colonial mindset is in the
inconstant southern neighbour to our south, as is present, too, not just in the past. We shouldn’t feel
the case today, who will defend us? The U.S. may insulted when I say that. We all bathe in the same
defend us, or they may not — we may not know water—myself happily included. In strategic terms,
until the 11th hour. For now, such thinking is not we have a quasi-colonial mindset because we’ve
generally part of our strategic imaginary, but we never really broken out of it and never had the
must realize that we are now surrounded by great pressure to break out of it. Short of a major national
powers at all our borders — including the European crisis or war, we would need to have a sustained
powers. We don’t know how stable or happy these mental revolution, or policy revolution rather than
powers will be in the future, or how they will relate a revolution against the Crown or against our de
16ENVISIONING A MORE POPULOUS, COMMANDING CANADA — IF IT SURVIVES - A CONVERSATION WITH IRVIN STUDIN
facto imperial neighbours or cousins... We can we’re going to need about 10 million people in the
absorb a huge number of people over time. I don’t north over the course of the next 60 or 70 years to
think there’s any question that, territorially, we’ve manage that huge space.
got plenty of room. If we distribute the population
much more deliberately across the country — I
really do believe in proper, choreographed distribu-
tion of the population. We’re very passive in this
respect now, but over time we’re going to have to
be much more deliberate. I mentioned the northern
flank — a whole northern immigration strategy for
Canada would seem to be naturally coming before
long...
As for integration, we’d be very naïve to think the
country can absorb anyone from any place at any
pace, and that nobody should blink because that
would be racist. I don’t think that’s true at all. We
should be very deliberate about how we choreo-
graph the look and feel of the country. At the same
time, we should be distributing the population and
getting talent from around the world — there are no
contradictions there, but we have to be very careful,
because outside of Toronto, the majority-minority
dynamics are very sensitive in many regions of the
country – starting, of course, with Quebec...
Of course, it would still be an entirely multicultural
country — with at least two nations, or maybe mul-
tiple nations given the Indigenous question. But
Canada would have a much more distributed popu-
lation, with highly multi-ethnic big cities all over
the place. And, by the way, there would be new big
cities by that point. We don’t know whether Toronto
will be the major city by 2067. But there will def-
initely be new cities, some of them new big cities.
Take the north, for instance. You can imagine a city
like Whitehorse all of a sudden having a couple
million people – same with Yellowknife. Because
17CANADA 2068: UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, SQUARED AND CUBED
WILLIAM WATSON
Born and raised in Montreal and educated at McGill University in Montreal and Yale
University in New Haven, Connecticut, William Watson taught at McGill from 1977 to
2017, serving as Chair of the Department of Economics from 2005-10 and Acting Chair
in 2016-17. He is best known for his regular columns in the National Post and the Ottawa
Citizen, and for his appearances on radio and television. From 1998-2002 he edited
Policy Options politiques, the magazine of Montreal’s Institute for Research on Public
Policy, where he is currently a Senior Research Fellow. He is also a Research Fellow at
the C. D. Howe Institute in Toronto. While on a leave from McGill in 1997-8, he served
for 21 months as editorial pages editor of the Ottawa Citizen. He was the 1989 winner
of the National Magazine Awards gold medal for humour for a piece in Saturday Night
magazine about a trip to New York. His book Globalization and the Meaning of Canadian
Life, published by the University of Toronto Press, was runner-up for the Donner Prize
for the best book on Canadian public policy published in 1998. He writes twice weekly
in the Financial Post and once a week for the Fraser Institute Blog.
In February 2002, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald at least know the upper bound on the numbers of
Rumsfeld was lampooned by many people not such people, since they have all been born by now
nearly as smart as he for his trifurcation of all or very soon will be. Is there much else we know?
knowledge into: things we know (or at least think Fifty years is not much more than half the expected
we know), things we know we don’t know (“known life of a typical Western newborn, yet for predic-
unknowns”), and things we don’t know we don’t tion it remains a very long time. Over half a century,
know (“unknown unknowns”). In fact, it bespeaks unknown unknowns dominate, thus limiting the
wisdom and humility that were tragically lacking usefulness of forecasting or even speculation except
in his department’s invasion of Iraq one year later. perhaps as entertainment.
What do we know about the world in 2068? We Consider the Canadians of 1867. There were just 3.5
have a decent idea of the number of people 50 million of them, a tenth what we are now. Their life
years and older who will be alive, barring nuclear, expectancy at birth was 41.6 years, which means
environmental, biological or other disaster. We Canadians born on Confederation Day couldn’t
18CANADA 2068: UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, SQUARED AND CUBED - WILLIAM WATSON
reasonably expect to see their country’s 50th anni- flying machines they could guide to their targets?
versary in 1917. Their incomes, though respectable That military commanders many miles apart would
internationally, were what we once would have talk with one another through copper cables, while
called “third world,” barely $1,500 in the purchas- other soldiers would fight on land in horseless vehi-
ing power of the U.S. dollar of 1990. (In 2010 in cles powered by a “refined” version of black sludge
that currency, the average Canadian income was pumped out of the ground? To observe the 100th
$24,941, fully 17 times higher.) Canadians’ average anniversary of Canada’s income tax — which might
formal education in 1867 was 5.7 years. The previous also have seemed unimaginable in 1867 — I read
year, 1866, 257 of them had graduated from univer- the parliamentary debates on the bill to introduce
sity (compared to more than two million enrolled in an “income war tax” (as it was known until 1949).
university in 2015/16). Only 107,225 Canadians — Canada was still very British in 1917. MPs made
Montrealers — lived in a city of more than 100,000 frequent reference to U.K. events, personalities,
people. Almost 90% lived on farms or in towns of laws, institutions and even poetry in full confidence
less than 5,000. The majority were farmers or agri- that the other men listening — only men in 1917
cultural workers living by the rhythms and dictates — would understand the context and references.
of temperature and rainfall. They feared invasion Another recurring debate had to do with the prob-
by Fenians based in the U.S. or indeed by the U.S. lem of how to pay for the country’s second trans-
itself, which had just survived a bloody civil war continental railway, which was heavily indebted
in which the British Empire would have preferred but, like the CPR that had preceded it, could move
a rebel victory or at least a stalemate. For the fath- Canadians across their country in just days.
ers — all fathers — of the new Confederation, get-
ting from Quebec City to Charlottetown three years In their turn, could those Canadians of 1917 have
earlier had taken three and a half days by steamer. imagined that in 1967 their children and grandchildren
Travel to the Pacific coast colony of British Columbia, would already be 22 years on from another world
a potential entrant to the new Confederation, took war of even greater horror and extent than the one
weeks or months. On July 1, 1867, the first success- they were living through? Or that it would have
ful transatlantic cable, joining Ireland and Heart’s been ended by super-bombs embodying the power
Content, Newfoundland, was not yet 11 months old. of many days’ bombardment in the worst battles of
their own Great War? The Canada of 1967 was a
Could those Canadians of 1867 have imagined that country of 20 million, two and a half times what it
just 50 years later they would be nine provinces had been in 1917. Per capita GDP was now $12,050,
and eight million strong? Their per capita incomes 3.1 times its level 50 years earlier. Flying machines
would be 2.6 times what they had been 50 years could get Canadians, who now lived mainly in cit-
earlier? And fully 500,000 of them would be in ies, each with at least one “airport,” almost any-
Europe fighting alongside the Americans in a war where in their country in just hours. Six days before
even more terrible than the U.S. Civil War? Could Centennial Day, by a miracle of the “space age,”
they have foreseen that some soldiers in this war up to 700 million people watched “Our World,” a
would bombard the enemy from above from within live, two and a half hour international “television”
19CANADA 2068: UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, SQUARED AND CUBED - WILLIAM WATSON
collaboration featuring Marshall McLuhan, Maria them to the attendant, who would return them to
Callas, Pablo Picasso and, most famously, a British me the next day, along with a print-out of whatever
musical quartet with the strange name of “Beatles,” the computer had calculated at my request — once
who introduced their song All You Need Is Love. I finally got the request into a form it could under-
Many viewers knew that within as little as 24 stand. Like most people then, I believed computers
months’ time they might see an American astronaut would improve — they had improved markedly in
walk on the moon and return to Earth. the previous 20 years — but I had no idea how much.
As for those Canadians of 1967, could they have Could the Canadians of 1867 have imagined the
imagined the world we now live in, just 50 years Somme, the federal income tax and a four-day
later? Speaking as one of them, I can say, emphat- trip to British Columbia? Could those of 1917 have
ically, “No!” In 1967 I wrote my high-school term imagined television, jet travel and rockets to the
papers on my father’s Smith-Corona portable type- moon? Could the Canadians of 1967 have imagined
writer, a mechanical stamping machine that made the ubiquity of powerful computers and communi-
use of a carbon-impregnated ribbon to impress cation? Yes, in principle, they could have. Did they?
black or red letters onto paper. By contrast, I am No, no and no. Maybe a solitary eccentric here or
writing this “paper” (we still call them papers) on a there predicted something that wasn’t totally dis-
“laptop computer,” which is one of five computers similar to what eventually came to be. But there
I own, not counting the one I carry in my pocket, was no way of distinguishing inspired forecast from
with which I track weather and news in real time, lunatic fantasy and it would have been folly to base
trace my tracks up and down ski hills, and talk or any important public policies — or anything at all,
exchange “text messages” with people anywhere really — on such confabulation. So I don’t see much
on the globe. (In 1967, if you saw someone walk- point worrying about what Canada, if it survives, will
ing along the street talking to himself you looked be like in 2068.
the other way: Now it happens all the time: He’s
not crazy, he’s just on his phone.) Until the 1940s On the other hand, I do suspect — I think I know —
a “computer” was a person who did mathematical that my children and theirs will still be concerned
calculations for a living. The economist Milton with three problems that have preoccupied the
Friedman served as one for the U.S. government country since its beginnings. The first is relations
during World War II. Though by 1967 most people with the United States, which had much to do with
had heard of electronic computers, only govern- Canada’s founding, were still important in 1917,
ments, businesses and institutions owned them. just six years after the 1911 reciprocity election,
My own experience of them began two years later remained crucial in 1967, two years after the Auto
in university. I interacted with the machines by Pact, and are still paramount today, as a mercantil-
using a kind of typewriter to punch holes in cards, ist president tries to reverse the trade strategy the
each of which represented a “line” of “code,” and then U.S. has pursued since the mid-1930s.
taking my cards over to the computer centre, where
the room-sized machines were stored, and giving Relations between French and English in Canada
20CANADA 2068: UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, SQUARED AND CUBED - WILLIAM WATSON
have also been part of our history since Confedera-
tion and before. If the proportion of French speakers
in Canada continues to decline, it may become less
central, but so long as francophones are concen-
trated in one province, the threat of its secession
and therefore the need to manage these relations
will continue.
Finally, how to earn a living has preoccupied our
species, let alone our nation, since each began.
In 1930, with typical cheekiness, John Maynard
Keynes predicted in “Economic Possibilities for our
Grandchildren” that, despite that era’s debilitating
depression, these grandchildren would be so rich
that material needs would no longer concern them.
That does not seem to have happened, even in a
country where real incomes, as best they can be
compared across eras, are approaching 20 times
what they were in 1867. Not just because I’m an
economist, I’m reasonably sure material matters
will still concern our own grandchildren.
Apart from these three enduring problems, it’s all
unknown unknowns as far as the eye can’t see.
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