A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge

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A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge
June 2021
Asia Pacific Issue #19

Industry focus
A momentous decade
in addressing the
carbon challenge

Global economy:          Regional economy:                High-level
World economy bouncing   ‘Three-speed’ recovery for the   building costs
back after a long and    economies of the Asia Pacific
uneven recovery
A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge
2                                                                                June 2021   Insight

Contents                    Welcome to Insight #19 covering the
                            countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
                            It continues to be a long and uneven recovery from the unprecedented
                            challenges of the past 18 months, but the global economy is currently
                            predicted to bounce back better than expected in terms of growth during
                            the remainder of 2021 and into 2022.
                            The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for this
                            year to 6 per cent growth, with 4.4 per cent growth over next year.
                            Its forecast follows a year of contraction of more than three per cent

3
      Global economy:       during 2020 — although again this was better than previous predictions.
      World economy
      bouncing back after   What's behind the ‘bounce-back’ ?
      a long and uneven     The ‘bounce-back’ has been attributed to a combination of positive actions
      recovery              adopted to varying degrees by the major economies. In Asia Pacific that
                            has meant early suppression of the Covid-19 virus, in spite of surges in
                            case numbers since, and a relatively quick return to export markets for
                            economies such as China and Vietnam.

5     Regional economy:     In the West it has resulted from the development and rollout of Covid-19
      ‘Three-speed’         vaccines, as well as key economic intervention such as the massive
      recovery for the      spending programme introduced in the United States by the new Biden
                            administration.
      economies of the
      Asia Pacific          In the Middle East, policymakers are benefiting from the unexpected oil
                            price recovery of early 2021, just as they reinstate various programmes
                            to diversify major economies such as in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
                            Emirates.

7     High-level
      building costs
                            Concentration on climate change
                            The impact of climate change on the construction industry and how it is
                            being tackled comes under the microscope in our special report as we
                            look at what is likely to be a momentous decade. The leading economies
                            have signed up to a variety of deadlines to reduce pollution levels,

8
                            embrace the move to electric vehicles and change industrial practices, the
      Industry focus:       first of which take effect in the next few years.
      A momentous           The impact will continue to be felt across the industry, by investors,
      decade in             building owners and managers, designers, cost consultants and project
      addressing the        managers.
      carbon challenge

11         Currie & Brown
           offices

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A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge
3    Global economy                                                                    June 2021   Insight

World economy bouncing back
after a long and uneven recovery
A positive outlook                      major macro-economic priorities
                                        that dominated their agenda pre-
The good news of more optimistic
growth forecasts for the global
                                        Covid-19. In the case of East Asian        There is good news
                                        economies like China, that has
economy will help boost the outlook     meant concentrating on protecting              to be had across
of several key regions including the    the manufacturing sector and trying          the globe, as more
Middle East and Asia Pacific.           to ensure a prompt return to pre-
                                        pandemic productivity.
                                                                                       optimistic growth
For different reasons, economies like
those in East Asia, including China,                                           forecasts for the global
                                        In the Gulf region, governments
and the Gulf Co-operation Council       were deep into the planning stages      economy aim to boost
region, are already experiencing
growth — movement in a positive
                                        of ambitious programmes like Saudi       the outlook of several
                                        Arabia’s Vision 2030, which seeks to
direction that began within a year of   ensure a much-diversified economy
                                                                                key regions, including
the pandemic outbreak, and before       within less than a decade.                 the Middle East and
vaccinations were on the horizon.
                                        In both regions the emphasis has                    Asia Pacific
That trend reflects policymakers’       been on limiting the spread of the
determination to return to the          virus, restricting movement wherever

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A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge
4    Global economy                                                                                       June 2021    Insight

practicable, and introducing                  How do those countries hit worst by
vaccination programmes as quickly             the pandemic recover? Is there a
as possible. In terms of government           chance for them to ‘level up’? Even                     Recovery is not
spending, it has meant a renewed              within the growth regions of the
effort concentrated on major capital          world, there are economies that are                  complete, nor has
projects, such as spending on                 slower to return to ‘normal’ than their                it been uniform.
transport infrastructure.                     neighbours.
                                                                                            Economies that depend
The major forecasters also hope that          The IMF urges policymakers                   more heavily on tourism
China’s protracted trade war with the         to prioritise actions such as
United States — heightened during             strengthening special protection               or commodity exports,
the Trump administration — can be             for self-employed and ‘informally            for example, have found
curtailed, if not quite brought to a close.   employed’ people, supporting
                                              adequate healthcare resources,
                                                                                               it more difficult to get
The IMF forecasting team has
been impressed by the general
                                              childhood development, education,               back to pre-pandemic
response to the pandemic by
                                              vocational training and the fostering                  levels of activity
                                              of ‘green infrastructure’. Their latest
numerous governments. “Thanks to
                                              report says that the implementation
unprecedented policy response, the
                                              of such policies needs to be flexible
Covid-19 recession is likely to leave
                                              enough to cope with change as an
smaller scars than the 2008 global
                                              economy emerges from the worst             per capita income in many countries
financial crisis,” according to the
                                              of the pandemic and seeks proper,          is reckoned to be as much as 20
latest IMF analysis.
                                              sustained growth.                          per cent lower than at 2019 pre-
“However, emerging market economies                                                      pandemic levels, the more vibrant
                                              “When support is eventually scaled
and low-income developing countries                                                      economies are nearer half that figure.
                                              back, it should be done in ways that
have been hit harder and are
                                              avoid sudden ‘cliffs’, for instance,       Such percentages demand greater
expected to suffer more significant
                                              gradually reducing the government’s        co-operation between rich and poor
medium-term losses," it added.
                                              share of wages covered under               countries, says Ms Gopinath. “Once
                                              furlough… while increasing hiring          the health crisis is over, policy efforts
A range of                                    subsidies,” says the report.               can focus more on building resilient,
recovery rates                                                                           inclusive and greener economies,
                                              “Long-term challenges — boosting
                                                                                         both to bolster the recovery and to
Recovery is not complete, nor has             productivity, improving policy
                                                                                         raise potential output," she said,
it been uniform. Economies that               frameworks and addressing climate
                                                                                         adding that priorities should be aimed
depend more heavily on tourism or             change — cannot be ignored.
                                                                                         at boosting people’s productive
commodity exports, for example,               Differential recovery speeds across        capacity and arresting rising
have found it more difficult to get           countries may give rise to divergent
                                                                                         inequality.
back to pre-pandemic levels of                policy stances, particularly if advanced
activity. As lockdowns ease and               economies benefit sooner than others       For some countries that means
vaccination rates rise during mid-            from wide vaccine coverage.”               improving the structure of both
2021, the recovery of air travel may                                                     public and private sectors to gain
have a positive impact. While any             The prospect of divergent recovery         efficiencies. For richer economies,
recovery in visitor travel during this        rates is of concern, noted IMF             it may mean sharing technologies,
year will be welcome, it is, however,         research director Gita Gopinath.           including the availability of Covid-19
likely to be slow.                            Already there is evidence that, while      vaccines and medications, as well as
                                                                                         encouraging greater digitisation.
                                                                                         “Even while all eyes are on the
                                                                                         pandemic, it is essential that progress
                                                                                         be made on resolving disagreements
                                                                                         over trade and technologies.
                                                                                         Countries should also co-operate
                                                                                         on climate change mitigation,
                                                                                         digitalisation, modernisation of
                                                                                         international corporate taxation, and
                                                                                         on measures to limit cross-border
                                                                                         profit shifting, tax avoidance and
                                                                                         evasion,” concluded Ms Gopinath.

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5    Regional economy                                                                           June 2021   Insight

‘Three-speed’ recovery for the
economies of the Asia Pacific
The coronavirus may have been first       the IMF last autumn is described now
detected in China, but that nation’s      by the World Bank as ‘three-speed’.
response and its ability to focus
                                          Its latest forecast stated: “Many of                The three factors
quickly on economic recovery is
being credited with the Asia-Pacific
                                          the economies in the region began               affecting growth and
                                          to bounce back in the second half of
region taking the lead in a global
                                          2020 after an initial slump. However,
                                                                                           recovery have been
return to ‘normal', even while case
numbers continue to fluctuate.            among major economies of the                  the containment of the
                                          region, only China and Vietnam have         virus, the ability to boost
Economic forecasters expect the           followed a V-shape recovery path
APAC region to record average             with output surpassing pre-Covid-19
                                                                                         manufactured exports
growth of 8.6 per cent during 2021,       levels in 2020.”                                  and the capacity of
and a further 6 per cent next year.
Both these figures are higher than for    Other major regional economies such          governments to provide
the rest of the world, as every country   as Malaysia and Thailand remained           key fiscal and monetary
                                          below pre-Covid-19 levels, the World
copes with and recovers from the
impact of lockdown.                       Bank found. In some corners of
                                                                                      support during the worst
                                          APAC, the result was that poverty                    of the pandemic
Nevertheless, even within the
                                          started to climb, particularly in smaller
economies of APAC, the experience
                                          island economies.
of recovery has been variable. The
‘multi-speed’ recovery predicted by

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6    Regional economy                                                                                     June 2021   Insight

Routes to recovery                            capital, Bangkok. The long-awaited
                                              link, the first phase of which runs
The three factors affecting growth and
recovery have been the containment
                                              250km within Thailand, is expected to           Overall, capital projects
                                              carry trains within five years, and will
of the virus, the ability to boost            pass through Laos and eventually on                  and manufacturing
manufactured exports and the capacity
of governments to provide key fiscal
                                              to China.                                         exports offer the path
and monetary support during the worst         Grimshaw has won an international                 to sustained recovery
                                              competition to design a major new
of the pandemic. Those suffering the
                                              transport hub at Shenzhen’s airport.
                                                                                           post-Covid-19. Countries
most were countries with high rates of
Covid-19, poorer access to population         And work is starting on a high-speed          like Australia, Japan and
testing, governments less able to             300km rail link within north-eastern
                                              China, linking Harbin and Yichun in
                                                                                              others within APAC and
provide financial support, and a greater
dependence on non-manufacturing               Heilongjiang province.                       also South America hope
sectors such as tourism, which suffered       Singapore has awarded a $740 million              that the Trans-Pacific
badly from an early stage.                    contract to Daewoo Engineering for              Partnership will shine a
Manufacturing exporters such as               the latest part of its Cross Island
China should benefit from global              rail project. Work on the Pasir Ris          path to co-operation and
recovery, helped partly by the Biden          interchange and related tunnels will                     improved trade
administration’s stimulus of the US           start later this year. Cross Island is
economy. China and Vietnam will lead          Singapore’s eighth major metro line,
growth, with Malaysia and Indonesia           and will link major hubs including
expected to return to growth before           Jurong, Punggol and Changi. Nearly
the end of 2021. For other tourism-           half of the stations in the current phase
dependent economies including                 will interlink with existing lines.
Thailand, that growth will follow next
                                              The Thai government is anxious to
year.                                                                                     Australia is also banking on major
                                              encourage capital projects such as
                                                                                          capital projects to kickstart its
“The developing East Asia and                 the so-called ‘southern land bridge
                                                                                          economy, with some success to date.
Pacific region is at the frontline of         megaproject’, described by some
combating global climate change. The                                                      For example, financial close has
                                              as potentially the most convenient
region is a major contributor to rising                                                   been reached for the $890 million
                                              route for goods to reach Asia from
greenhouse gas emissions causing                                                          Footscray Hospital project, the State
                                              the Middle East. Thai authorities are
climate change — with emissions                                                           of Victoria’s biggest ever healthcare
                                              expected to choose a final location
tripling since the year 2000 and now                                                      infrastructure scheme, with a new
                                              for the land bridge before the end of
accounting for nearly one-third of                                                        500-bed hospital replacing an existing
                                              June, according to the Bangkok Post.
global emissions. The region also                                                         facility and increasing capacity to
faces the consequences of climate             Transport Minister Saksayam                 15,000 patients a year.
change, from typhoons and tropical            Chidchob has urged agencies to
                                                                                          Concept designs for a new 50m-high
diseases to melting glaciers and rising       expedite the project, which will
                                                                                          and 550m-long rail bridge over the
oceans. Therefore, early climate              connect the Gulf of Thailand with
                                                                                          Maribyrnong River as part of the
action by the region is both in the           the Andaman Sea. He says two
                                                                                          Melbourne Airport rail link have been
global and the region’s own interest,”        16m-deep ports will be built at either
                                                                                          unveiled. And planning has started on
forecasters warned.                           end and there will be direct links to
                                                                                          what will be Australia’s longest road
                                              road and rail. Regulations will be
                                                                                          tunnel, proposed as part of the Great
                                              amended to shorten processes and
Making an impression                          reduce the documents required for
                                                                                          Western Highway. The 11km tunnel
through infrastructure                        goods transport in an attempt to
                                                                                          would be the main component of the
                                                                                          upgraded road between Lithgow and
Governments and the private sector            attract businesses to use the link.
                                                                                          Katoomba.
are pushing ahead now with significant        Another major port development, at
infrastructure and related capital                                                        Overall, capital projects and
                                              Laem Chabang, received the go-
projects as they seek to stimulate                                                        manufacturing exports offer the path
                                              ahead when the Thai cabinet agreed
further growth. China expects to finish                                                   to sustained recovery post-Covid-19.
                                              to revise estimated returns to the state
its longest underwater highway at Taihu                                                   Countries like Australia, Japan and
                                              to a level agreed by the port authority
this year. Traffic should be able to travel                                               others within APAC and also South
                                              and the consortium that won the $900
for nearly 11km under Lake Taihu, east                                                    America hope that the Trans-Pacific
                                              million construction bid.
of Shanghai, when work is done.                                                           Partnership will clear a path to co-
                                              The Bank of Thailand says that the          operation and improved trade. For
A number of Chinese construction              country has strong finances, but that       others, including China, it is about
companies have signed to build the            Covid-19’s longevity has hit small          rebuilding the electronics industry
first phase of the high-speed rail            businesses hard — particularly tourism,     supply chain as demand continues to
link between Kunming and the Thai             which supports 20 per cent of total jobs.   improve worldwide.

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7    Cost data                                                                                                           June 2021     Insight

High-level building costs - Q1 2021
Local currency/per m2 CFA
                                                   Australia (AUD)                                              China (RMB)
                                      Brisbane         Melbourne               Sydney              Beijing           Shanghai         Shenzhen
 Offices         High-rise         3,450 - 4,400     3,650 - 4,300     4,450 - 5,550       8,000 - 11,000        8,000 - 10,500    8,000 - 10,500
                 Medium-rise       3,250 - 4,150     3,450 - 4,100     3,850 - 4,450        6,800 - 8,000         6,500 - 8,000     6,500 - 8,000
                 Low-rise          3,050 - 3,950     3,250 - 3,850     3,400 - 3,850        5,500 - 6,500         5,500 - 6,500     5,000 - 6,500
 Retail malls                      2,250 - 3,600     2,350 - 3,250     2,500 - 3,750       7,000 - 11,000        7,000 - 11,000    7,000 - 11,000
 Residential     High-rise         3,180 - 4,350     3,400 - 4,150     3,500 - 4,250        5,000 - 7,500         5,000 - 8,000     5,000 - 7,000
                 Medium-rise       2,500 - 3,400     3,000 - 3,650     2,950 - 3,500        3,600 - 5,000         3,800 - 5,000     3,700 - 5,000
                 Townhouses        1,650 - 3,580     1,450 - 2,675     1,350 - 2,400        5,000 - 7,500         5,500 - 8,000     5,500 - 8,000
                 Villas/houses     1,600 - 3,980     1,350 - 2,600     1,250 - 2,400       7,500 - 12,000        7,500 - 10,500    7,500 - 11,000
 Hotels          Five-star         4,100 - 5,700     4,450 - 5,850     4,850 - 6,100 10,000 - 15,000           10,000 - 15,000    11,000 - 15,000
                 Four-star         3,600 - 4,650     3,700 - 4,550     3,950 - 5,100       8,000 - 10,000        8,000 - 10,000    8,500 - 11,000
                 Three-star        2,950 - 4,150     3,475 - 3,950     3,500 - 4,100        6,000 - 8,000         5,800 - 8,000     7,000 - 8,500
                 Five-star FFE      870 - 1,050        890 - 1,100       940 - 1,050              600 - 800          500 - 650         550 - 700
                 Four-star FFE        725 - 950         700 - 950             750 - 950           350 - 600          300 - 500         350 - 550
                 Three-star FFE       550 - 700         550 - 750             550 - 750           200 - 350          200 - 300         200 - 350
 Industrial                         825 - 1,250        950 - 1,450       950 - 1,400        3,200 - 4,800         3,500 - 5,000     3,500 - 5,000
 Data centres                      5,050 - 9,750     5,400 - 9,900    5,400 - 10,000 17,000 - 23,000           18,000 - 25,000    18,000 - 25,000

                                      Hong Kong                      Japan         Singapore                  Thailand                 Indonesia
                                            (HKD)                     (Yen)               (SGD)                 (Baht)                  (Rupiah)
                                      Hong Kong                      Tokyo         Singapore                  Bangkok                    Jakarta
 Offices         High-rise         22,000 - 31,000      500,000 - 625,000        2,793 - 3,103       31,500 - 37,200      11,000,000 -17,000,000
                 Medium-rise       17,000 - 22,500      450,000 - 500,000        2,122 - 2,723       26,600 - 34,600       9,000,000 -16,000,000
                 Low-rise          15,000 - 19,000      325,000 - 425,000        1,712 - 2,022       24,200 - 31,175       8,000,000 -14,000,000
 Retail malls                      23,000 - 33,500                      n/a      1,933 - 2,022       28,300 - 35,250       6,000,000 - 8,500,000
 Residential     High-rise         22,500 - 32,500                      n/a      2,122 - 4,344       35,000 - 75,000      8,000,000 - 22,000,000
                 Medium-rise       16,000 - 19,000                      n/a                 n/a      24,500 - 40,000      6,800,000 - 17,000,000
                 Townhouses        20,000 - 26,000                      n/a      2,522 - 3,133       22,000 - 25,000      9,500,000 - 17,000,000
                 Villas/houses    46,500 - 60,000+                      n/a      3,133 - 4,144       26,550 - 38,000      9,500,000 - 17,000,000
 Hotels          Five-star         33,500 - 44,000      550,000 - 700,000        3,833 - 4,844       57,200 - 74,000     20,000,000 - 28,000,000
                 Four-star         30,500 - 33,500      450,000 - 550,000        3,233 - 4,044       53,200 - 57,150     13,000,000 - 15,000,000
                 Three-star        25,500 - 30,500      350,000 - 450,000        3,003 - 3,303       45,350 - 52,000     10,500,000 - 12,800,000
                 Five-star FFE           inc above      100,000 - 130,000            inc above       11,250 - 18,000       4,000,000 - 6,000,000
                 Four-star FFE           inc above       80,000 - 100,000            inc above        8,700 - 13,250       1,800,000 - 3,000,000
                 Three-star FFE          inc above        60,000 - 70,000            inc above          6,650 - 9,000      1,250,000 - 2,000,000
 Industrial                        14,500 - 21,000      225,000 - 325,000        1,111 - 1,972       16,800 - 23,800       6,000,000 - 9,500,000
 Data centres                                  n/a 1,150,000 - 1,300,000        8,088 - 12,132     120,000 - 185,000     35,000,000 - 60,000,000

Notes:
Australia: Industrial buildings assume PCC frame and exclude office provisioning.
Australia, China and Singapore: Costs exclude GST/VAT.
Offices: Rates assume prestige CBD standard.
Data centres: Costs dependent on Kw/m2.
Industrial: Excludes equipment.
Hotels: OS&E costs excluded.

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8    Focus                                                                                            June 2021   Insight

A momentous decade in
addressing the carbon challenge
The year 2020 marked the start of         They envisage catastrophe, and point       Increasing external
a momentous decade in terms of            to significant recent crises including
climate change and its implications for
                                                                                     pressure
                                          fires, floods, extreme weather events
the global population.                    and the melting glaciers and polar         Pressure on the construction sector is
                                          regions to support the drive towards       increasing, principally from regulators
Policymakers throughout the
                                          massive changes in the way we live.        and asset owners, operators and
developed world are working towards
                                                                                     users.
a range of deadlines targeting the        If there has been a single tipping-point
dramatic reduction of carbon use,         in the carbon debate it is now. After      It has been estimated that buildings
whether cutting the use of coal, oil or   years of debate, possibly encouraged       of all types account for around 30 per
gas for light and cooling purposes,       in 2007 by Al Gore’s documentary An        cent of total warming emissions. That
or the large-scale conversion of road     Inconvenient Truth, governments are        has sparked increasing pressure on
traffic from conventional to electric     acknowledging the need to set real         the sector to look at every aspect of
vehicles.                                 deadlines for large-scale reduction of     construction and development across
                                          carbon emissions and other warming         new-build and refurbishment projects.
For environmental campaigners, the
                                          gases. The first of such deadlines
changes cannot come soon enough.
                                          comes into effect before 2030.

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9    Focus                                                                                                   June 2021   Insight

Three priority areas for cost are capital, operation and disposal.

                                         This encompasses tasks such as design, sourcing of materials and using
                                         new technologies to reduce carbon dependence. Trends include the growing
                                         expectation for materials to be sourced as close as possible to the site. The trend
                                         is also towards building ‘off site’, pre-fabricating large sections of buildings and
Capital costs:                           fit-out materials, to reduce on-site activity that can have significant carbon impact.
Managing initial                         New technologies such as 3D printing are increasingly under assessment, with
                                         successful pilots completed in Dubai and Shanghai, for example.
impact

                                         Embedding low-carbon ideology in design from the outset means owners and
                                         investors reap the rewards in profitability, longer-term cost control and reduced
                                         costs of disposal.
                                         Assuming new buildings are designed and built with low or even negligible
                                         carbon impact, focus shifts to operational cost. At the planning stage, funders
                                         and developers calculate the whole-life cost of a building, including in terms of
                                         conventional economics.
Operation costs:
                                         Environmental ‘cost’ is an extension of this process. Aspects for consideration
Focus on future                          including environmentally friendly power sources and reduced energy consumption.
proofing                                 The solutions lie in areas such as the ready availability of renewable energy and its
                                         design and flexible use.
                                         Examples include the integration of proper insulation, heat recycling, the use of
                                         locally based solar or wind-driven power – unless such renewable energy sources
                                         are available from the grid. Each makes a significant difference to the ongoing
                                         costs of running a building, as well as reducing its carbon footprint.

                                         If disposal is by transfer of ownership to a buyer, value can be maintained if the
                                         building adheres to modern regulatory expectation as well as that of residents or
                                         tenant companies for commercial buildings.
Disposal costs:                          Charges for dumping construction-related waste continues to soar. If the disposal
                                         involves demolition and replacement, use of recyclable materials in original
Value considerations                     construction will significantly reduce disposal costs.

The ‘virtuous circle’ –                      for ways to reduce carbon. A key              both tenant businesses and residents.
                                             route is by ‘retrofitting’ materials and      Efficient heating, cooling or lighting
optimising costs and                         technologies, delivering significant          and their control systems mean
environmental impact                         positive effects. Examples include            lower bills. Lower-carbon buildings
A ‘virtuous circle’ brings together benefits improving insulation, replacing               help businesses meet their own
in capital and whole-life costs, as well as conventional heating and cooling               environmental targets and generate
to the environment. Key to achieving this systems and fuel sources, and                    ‘feel-good’ factors among staff. It’s
positive outcome is all stakeholders –       installing more efficient lighting and air-   worth noting that the ‘silent majority’ –
designer, developer and asset investor,      conditioning controls.                        office workers – may decide with their
operator and end user – working towards Retrofitting may seem less exciting                feet in which building they would prefer
a common goal.                                                                             to work. Invariably, the preference will
                                             than new-build investment, but it can
                                                                                           be for a comfortable, well-designed and
Owners of existing buildings face            make a massive impact on carbon
                                                                                           energy-efficient workplace with high
different but similar challenges.            reduction, and also make buildings
                                                                                           indoor air quality.
Designers and operators are looking          significantly more attractive to users,

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10                                                                                                    June 2021    Insight

                                                                                                  Growing ‘new’
                                                                                       economies, led by China
                                                                                         but including India and
                                                                                        Indonesia, for example,
                                                                                         are heavily dependent
                                                                                           on carbon fuels such
                                                                                         as coal to support their
                                                                                       massive and much more
                                                                                        recent industrial growth

Regional variations,                      commitment to change. Those two            Capital is following the trend towards
                                          nations account for 40 per cent of the     low-carbon activity. The election of
shared global vision
                                          world’s carbon emissions.                  President Biden has led in turn to
Critics argue that the mature                                                        a firm US commitment to renew its
                                          In the Middle East, the policy
economies of the West may find                                                       efforts to tackle climate change, with
                                          commitments of major oil producers
it easier to de-carbonise, given                                                     new targets set for reducing emissions
                                          such as Saudi Arabia and the United
the extent to which they have ‘de-                                                   and, for example, encouraging
                                          Arab Emirates to shift away from their
industrialised’ and shifted to service-                                              the switch away from the internal
                                          dependency on carbon and towards
based activities over time. Growing                                                  combustion engine. The US fund
                                          renewables speak volumes in terms
‘new’ economies, led by China but                                                    management giant BlackRock recently
                                          of the way climate issues impact on
including India and Indonesia, for                                                   warned that it may dump investments
                                          policy. The major Gulf Co-operation
example, are heavily dependent on                                                    in companies that do not respond
                                          Council economies are investing
carbon fuels such as coal to support                                                 effectively to the net zero carbon
                                          heavily in solar power and other forms
their massive and much more recent                                                   challenge, reflecting the growing
                                          of alternative fuel, a trend that would
industrial growth.                                                                   climate activism within the financial
                                          not have been imagined during the
There is evidence, however, that                                                     sector.
                                          ‘peak oil’ period of recent decades.
those nations can leverage new                                                       In Glasgow later this year the COP26
                                          There are many key drivers for all this.
technologies to effectively help                                                     conference will attract world leaders
                                          Firstly, modern economies need to
their economies leapfrog towards                                                     to commit further to stepping up
                                          diversify away from dependency on
renewable energy more quickly than                                                   measures to tackle the looming
                                          any single major industry. The world
the major powers of the West. China                                                  crisis. How we build in future, and the
                                          will continue to need oil and gas for
signed up to the Paris Agreement of                                                  techniques and materials we use, will
                                          decades to come, but that must be
2015, and is renewing its commitment                                                 be at the heart of that debate, which
                                          balanced to reduce harmful overall
to tackle climate change (despite                                                    it is hoped will generate targeted
                                          emissions. Most of the oil-producing
recently requesting a longer                                                         roadmaps more than ‘feel-good’ wish
                                          nations recognise that. The move
timeframe), just as the United States                                                lists.
                                          towards electric vehicles is likely to
has emerged from the Trump era
                                          become unstoppable and will disrupt
to re-engage with the international
                                          the petro-economies of the Middle East.

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11      Offices                                                                    June 2021   Insight

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