A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge
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June 2021 Asia Pacific Issue #19 Industry focus A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge Global economy: Regional economy: High-level World economy bouncing ‘Three-speed’ recovery for the building costs back after a long and economies of the Asia Pacific uneven recovery
2 June 2021 Insight Contents Welcome to Insight #19 covering the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. It continues to be a long and uneven recovery from the unprecedented challenges of the past 18 months, but the global economy is currently predicted to bounce back better than expected in terms of growth during the remainder of 2021 and into 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for this year to 6 per cent growth, with 4.4 per cent growth over next year. Its forecast follows a year of contraction of more than three per cent 3 Global economy: during 2020 — although again this was better than previous predictions. World economy bouncing back after What's behind the ‘bounce-back’ ? a long and uneven The ‘bounce-back’ has been attributed to a combination of positive actions recovery adopted to varying degrees by the major economies. In Asia Pacific that has meant early suppression of the Covid-19 virus, in spite of surges in case numbers since, and a relatively quick return to export markets for economies such as China and Vietnam. 5 Regional economy: In the West it has resulted from the development and rollout of Covid-19 ‘Three-speed’ vaccines, as well as key economic intervention such as the massive recovery for the spending programme introduced in the United States by the new Biden administration. economies of the Asia Pacific In the Middle East, policymakers are benefiting from the unexpected oil price recovery of early 2021, just as they reinstate various programmes to diversify major economies such as in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 7 High-level building costs Concentration on climate change The impact of climate change on the construction industry and how it is being tackled comes under the microscope in our special report as we look at what is likely to be a momentous decade. The leading economies have signed up to a variety of deadlines to reduce pollution levels, 8 embrace the move to electric vehicles and change industrial practices, the Industry focus: first of which take effect in the next few years. A momentous The impact will continue to be felt across the industry, by investors, decade in building owners and managers, designers, cost consultants and project addressing the managers. carbon challenge 11 Currie & Brown offices www.curriebrown.com enquiries@curriebrown.com www.curriebrown.com
3 Global economy June 2021 Insight World economy bouncing back after a long and uneven recovery A positive outlook major macro-economic priorities that dominated their agenda pre- The good news of more optimistic growth forecasts for the global Covid-19. In the case of East Asian There is good news economies like China, that has economy will help boost the outlook meant concentrating on protecting to be had across of several key regions including the the manufacturing sector and trying the globe, as more Middle East and Asia Pacific. to ensure a prompt return to pre- pandemic productivity. optimistic growth For different reasons, economies like those in East Asia, including China, forecasts for the global In the Gulf region, governments and the Gulf Co-operation Council were deep into the planning stages economy aim to boost region, are already experiencing growth — movement in a positive of ambitious programmes like Saudi the outlook of several Arabia’s Vision 2030, which seeks to direction that began within a year of ensure a much-diversified economy key regions, including the pandemic outbreak, and before within less than a decade. the Middle East and vaccinations were on the horizon. In both regions the emphasis has Asia Pacific That trend reflects policymakers’ been on limiting the spread of the determination to return to the virus, restricting movement wherever www.curriebrown.com
4 Global economy June 2021 Insight practicable, and introducing How do those countries hit worst by vaccination programmes as quickly the pandemic recover? Is there a as possible. In terms of government chance for them to ‘level up’? Even Recovery is not spending, it has meant a renewed within the growth regions of the effort concentrated on major capital world, there are economies that are complete, nor has projects, such as spending on slower to return to ‘normal’ than their it been uniform. transport infrastructure. neighbours. Economies that depend The major forecasters also hope that The IMF urges policymakers more heavily on tourism China’s protracted trade war with the to prioritise actions such as United States — heightened during strengthening special protection or commodity exports, the Trump administration — can be for self-employed and ‘informally for example, have found curtailed, if not quite brought to a close. employed’ people, supporting adequate healthcare resources, it more difficult to get The IMF forecasting team has been impressed by the general childhood development, education, back to pre-pandemic response to the pandemic by vocational training and the fostering levels of activity of ‘green infrastructure’. Their latest numerous governments. “Thanks to report says that the implementation unprecedented policy response, the of such policies needs to be flexible Covid-19 recession is likely to leave enough to cope with change as an smaller scars than the 2008 global economy emerges from the worst per capita income in many countries financial crisis,” according to the of the pandemic and seeks proper, is reckoned to be as much as 20 latest IMF analysis. sustained growth. per cent lower than at 2019 pre- “However, emerging market economies pandemic levels, the more vibrant “When support is eventually scaled and low-income developing countries economies are nearer half that figure. back, it should be done in ways that have been hit harder and are avoid sudden ‘cliffs’, for instance, Such percentages demand greater expected to suffer more significant gradually reducing the government’s co-operation between rich and poor medium-term losses," it added. share of wages covered under countries, says Ms Gopinath. “Once furlough… while increasing hiring the health crisis is over, policy efforts A range of subsidies,” says the report. can focus more on building resilient, recovery rates inclusive and greener economies, “Long-term challenges — boosting both to bolster the recovery and to Recovery is not complete, nor has productivity, improving policy raise potential output," she said, it been uniform. Economies that frameworks and addressing climate adding that priorities should be aimed depend more heavily on tourism or change — cannot be ignored. at boosting people’s productive commodity exports, for example, Differential recovery speeds across capacity and arresting rising have found it more difficult to get countries may give rise to divergent inequality. back to pre-pandemic levels of policy stances, particularly if advanced activity. As lockdowns ease and economies benefit sooner than others For some countries that means vaccination rates rise during mid- from wide vaccine coverage.” improving the structure of both 2021, the recovery of air travel may public and private sectors to gain have a positive impact. While any The prospect of divergent recovery efficiencies. For richer economies, recovery in visitor travel during this rates is of concern, noted IMF it may mean sharing technologies, year will be welcome, it is, however, research director Gita Gopinath. including the availability of Covid-19 likely to be slow. Already there is evidence that, while vaccines and medications, as well as encouraging greater digitisation. “Even while all eyes are on the pandemic, it is essential that progress be made on resolving disagreements over trade and technologies. Countries should also co-operate on climate change mitigation, digitalisation, modernisation of international corporate taxation, and on measures to limit cross-border profit shifting, tax avoidance and evasion,” concluded Ms Gopinath. www.curriebrown.com
5 Regional economy June 2021 Insight ‘Three-speed’ recovery for the economies of the Asia Pacific The coronavirus may have been first the IMF last autumn is described now detected in China, but that nation’s by the World Bank as ‘three-speed’. response and its ability to focus Its latest forecast stated: “Many of The three factors quickly on economic recovery is being credited with the Asia-Pacific the economies in the region began affecting growth and to bounce back in the second half of region taking the lead in a global 2020 after an initial slump. However, recovery have been return to ‘normal', even while case numbers continue to fluctuate. among major economies of the the containment of the region, only China and Vietnam have virus, the ability to boost Economic forecasters expect the followed a V-shape recovery path APAC region to record average with output surpassing pre-Covid-19 manufactured exports growth of 8.6 per cent during 2021, levels in 2020.” and the capacity of and a further 6 per cent next year. Both these figures are higher than for Other major regional economies such governments to provide the rest of the world, as every country as Malaysia and Thailand remained key fiscal and monetary below pre-Covid-19 levels, the World copes with and recovers from the impact of lockdown. Bank found. In some corners of support during the worst APAC, the result was that poverty of the pandemic Nevertheless, even within the started to climb, particularly in smaller economies of APAC, the experience island economies. of recovery has been variable. The ‘multi-speed’ recovery predicted by www.curriebrown.com
6 Regional economy June 2021 Insight Routes to recovery capital, Bangkok. The long-awaited link, the first phase of which runs The three factors affecting growth and recovery have been the containment 250km within Thailand, is expected to Overall, capital projects carry trains within five years, and will of the virus, the ability to boost pass through Laos and eventually on and manufacturing manufactured exports and the capacity of governments to provide key fiscal to China. exports offer the path and monetary support during the worst Grimshaw has won an international to sustained recovery competition to design a major new of the pandemic. Those suffering the transport hub at Shenzhen’s airport. post-Covid-19. Countries most were countries with high rates of Covid-19, poorer access to population And work is starting on a high-speed like Australia, Japan and testing, governments less able to 300km rail link within north-eastern China, linking Harbin and Yichun in others within APAC and provide financial support, and a greater dependence on non-manufacturing Heilongjiang province. also South America hope sectors such as tourism, which suffered Singapore has awarded a $740 million that the Trans-Pacific badly from an early stage. contract to Daewoo Engineering for Partnership will shine a Manufacturing exporters such as the latest part of its Cross Island China should benefit from global rail project. Work on the Pasir Ris path to co-operation and recovery, helped partly by the Biden interchange and related tunnels will improved trade administration’s stimulus of the US start later this year. Cross Island is economy. China and Vietnam will lead Singapore’s eighth major metro line, growth, with Malaysia and Indonesia and will link major hubs including expected to return to growth before Jurong, Punggol and Changi. Nearly the end of 2021. For other tourism- half of the stations in the current phase dependent economies including will interlink with existing lines. Thailand, that growth will follow next The Thai government is anxious to year. Australia is also banking on major encourage capital projects such as capital projects to kickstart its “The developing East Asia and the so-called ‘southern land bridge economy, with some success to date. Pacific region is at the frontline of megaproject’, described by some combating global climate change. The For example, financial close has as potentially the most convenient region is a major contributor to rising been reached for the $890 million route for goods to reach Asia from greenhouse gas emissions causing Footscray Hospital project, the State the Middle East. Thai authorities are climate change — with emissions of Victoria’s biggest ever healthcare expected to choose a final location tripling since the year 2000 and now infrastructure scheme, with a new for the land bridge before the end of accounting for nearly one-third of 500-bed hospital replacing an existing June, according to the Bangkok Post. global emissions. The region also facility and increasing capacity to faces the consequences of climate Transport Minister Saksayam 15,000 patients a year. change, from typhoons and tropical Chidchob has urged agencies to Concept designs for a new 50m-high diseases to melting glaciers and rising expedite the project, which will and 550m-long rail bridge over the oceans. Therefore, early climate connect the Gulf of Thailand with Maribyrnong River as part of the action by the region is both in the the Andaman Sea. He says two Melbourne Airport rail link have been global and the region’s own interest,” 16m-deep ports will be built at either unveiled. And planning has started on forecasters warned. end and there will be direct links to what will be Australia’s longest road road and rail. Regulations will be tunnel, proposed as part of the Great amended to shorten processes and Making an impression reduce the documents required for Western Highway. The 11km tunnel through infrastructure goods transport in an attempt to would be the main component of the upgraded road between Lithgow and Governments and the private sector attract businesses to use the link. Katoomba. are pushing ahead now with significant Another major port development, at infrastructure and related capital Overall, capital projects and Laem Chabang, received the go- projects as they seek to stimulate manufacturing exports offer the path ahead when the Thai cabinet agreed further growth. China expects to finish to sustained recovery post-Covid-19. to revise estimated returns to the state its longest underwater highway at Taihu Countries like Australia, Japan and to a level agreed by the port authority this year. Traffic should be able to travel others within APAC and also South and the consortium that won the $900 for nearly 11km under Lake Taihu, east America hope that the Trans-Pacific million construction bid. of Shanghai, when work is done. Partnership will clear a path to co- The Bank of Thailand says that the operation and improved trade. For A number of Chinese construction country has strong finances, but that others, including China, it is about companies have signed to build the Covid-19’s longevity has hit small rebuilding the electronics industry first phase of the high-speed rail businesses hard — particularly tourism, supply chain as demand continues to link between Kunming and the Thai which supports 20 per cent of total jobs. improve worldwide. www.curriebrown.com
7 Cost data June 2021 Insight High-level building costs - Q1 2021 Local currency/per m2 CFA Australia (AUD) China (RMB) Brisbane Melbourne Sydney Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Offices High-rise 3,450 - 4,400 3,650 - 4,300 4,450 - 5,550 8,000 - 11,000 8,000 - 10,500 8,000 - 10,500 Medium-rise 3,250 - 4,150 3,450 - 4,100 3,850 - 4,450 6,800 - 8,000 6,500 - 8,000 6,500 - 8,000 Low-rise 3,050 - 3,950 3,250 - 3,850 3,400 - 3,850 5,500 - 6,500 5,500 - 6,500 5,000 - 6,500 Retail malls 2,250 - 3,600 2,350 - 3,250 2,500 - 3,750 7,000 - 11,000 7,000 - 11,000 7,000 - 11,000 Residential High-rise 3,180 - 4,350 3,400 - 4,150 3,500 - 4,250 5,000 - 7,500 5,000 - 8,000 5,000 - 7,000 Medium-rise 2,500 - 3,400 3,000 - 3,650 2,950 - 3,500 3,600 - 5,000 3,800 - 5,000 3,700 - 5,000 Townhouses 1,650 - 3,580 1,450 - 2,675 1,350 - 2,400 5,000 - 7,500 5,500 - 8,000 5,500 - 8,000 Villas/houses 1,600 - 3,980 1,350 - 2,600 1,250 - 2,400 7,500 - 12,000 7,500 - 10,500 7,500 - 11,000 Hotels Five-star 4,100 - 5,700 4,450 - 5,850 4,850 - 6,100 10,000 - 15,000 10,000 - 15,000 11,000 - 15,000 Four-star 3,600 - 4,650 3,700 - 4,550 3,950 - 5,100 8,000 - 10,000 8,000 - 10,000 8,500 - 11,000 Three-star 2,950 - 4,150 3,475 - 3,950 3,500 - 4,100 6,000 - 8,000 5,800 - 8,000 7,000 - 8,500 Five-star FFE 870 - 1,050 890 - 1,100 940 - 1,050 600 - 800 500 - 650 550 - 700 Four-star FFE 725 - 950 700 - 950 750 - 950 350 - 600 300 - 500 350 - 550 Three-star FFE 550 - 700 550 - 750 550 - 750 200 - 350 200 - 300 200 - 350 Industrial 825 - 1,250 950 - 1,450 950 - 1,400 3,200 - 4,800 3,500 - 5,000 3,500 - 5,000 Data centres 5,050 - 9,750 5,400 - 9,900 5,400 - 10,000 17,000 - 23,000 18,000 - 25,000 18,000 - 25,000 Hong Kong Japan Singapore Thailand Indonesia (HKD) (Yen) (SGD) (Baht) (Rupiah) Hong Kong Tokyo Singapore Bangkok Jakarta Offices High-rise 22,000 - 31,000 500,000 - 625,000 2,793 - 3,103 31,500 - 37,200 11,000,000 -17,000,000 Medium-rise 17,000 - 22,500 450,000 - 500,000 2,122 - 2,723 26,600 - 34,600 9,000,000 -16,000,000 Low-rise 15,000 - 19,000 325,000 - 425,000 1,712 - 2,022 24,200 - 31,175 8,000,000 -14,000,000 Retail malls 23,000 - 33,500 n/a 1,933 - 2,022 28,300 - 35,250 6,000,000 - 8,500,000 Residential High-rise 22,500 - 32,500 n/a 2,122 - 4,344 35,000 - 75,000 8,000,000 - 22,000,000 Medium-rise 16,000 - 19,000 n/a n/a 24,500 - 40,000 6,800,000 - 17,000,000 Townhouses 20,000 - 26,000 n/a 2,522 - 3,133 22,000 - 25,000 9,500,000 - 17,000,000 Villas/houses 46,500 - 60,000+ n/a 3,133 - 4,144 26,550 - 38,000 9,500,000 - 17,000,000 Hotels Five-star 33,500 - 44,000 550,000 - 700,000 3,833 - 4,844 57,200 - 74,000 20,000,000 - 28,000,000 Four-star 30,500 - 33,500 450,000 - 550,000 3,233 - 4,044 53,200 - 57,150 13,000,000 - 15,000,000 Three-star 25,500 - 30,500 350,000 - 450,000 3,003 - 3,303 45,350 - 52,000 10,500,000 - 12,800,000 Five-star FFE inc above 100,000 - 130,000 inc above 11,250 - 18,000 4,000,000 - 6,000,000 Four-star FFE inc above 80,000 - 100,000 inc above 8,700 - 13,250 1,800,000 - 3,000,000 Three-star FFE inc above 60,000 - 70,000 inc above 6,650 - 9,000 1,250,000 - 2,000,000 Industrial 14,500 - 21,000 225,000 - 325,000 1,111 - 1,972 16,800 - 23,800 6,000,000 - 9,500,000 Data centres n/a 1,150,000 - 1,300,000 8,088 - 12,132 120,000 - 185,000 35,000,000 - 60,000,000 Notes: Australia: Industrial buildings assume PCC frame and exclude office provisioning. Australia, China and Singapore: Costs exclude GST/VAT. Offices: Rates assume prestige CBD standard. Data centres: Costs dependent on Kw/m2. Industrial: Excludes equipment. Hotels: OS&E costs excluded. www.curriebrown.com
8 Focus June 2021 Insight A momentous decade in addressing the carbon challenge The year 2020 marked the start of They envisage catastrophe, and point Increasing external a momentous decade in terms of to significant recent crises including climate change and its implications for pressure fires, floods, extreme weather events the global population. and the melting glaciers and polar Pressure on the construction sector is regions to support the drive towards increasing, principally from regulators Policymakers throughout the massive changes in the way we live. and asset owners, operators and developed world are working towards users. a range of deadlines targeting the If there has been a single tipping-point dramatic reduction of carbon use, in the carbon debate it is now. After It has been estimated that buildings whether cutting the use of coal, oil or years of debate, possibly encouraged of all types account for around 30 per gas for light and cooling purposes, in 2007 by Al Gore’s documentary An cent of total warming emissions. That or the large-scale conversion of road Inconvenient Truth, governments are has sparked increasing pressure on traffic from conventional to electric acknowledging the need to set real the sector to look at every aspect of vehicles. deadlines for large-scale reduction of construction and development across carbon emissions and other warming new-build and refurbishment projects. For environmental campaigners, the gases. The first of such deadlines changes cannot come soon enough. comes into effect before 2030. www.curriebrown.com
9 Focus June 2021 Insight Three priority areas for cost are capital, operation and disposal. This encompasses tasks such as design, sourcing of materials and using new technologies to reduce carbon dependence. Trends include the growing expectation for materials to be sourced as close as possible to the site. The trend is also towards building ‘off site’, pre-fabricating large sections of buildings and Capital costs: fit-out materials, to reduce on-site activity that can have significant carbon impact. Managing initial New technologies such as 3D printing are increasingly under assessment, with successful pilots completed in Dubai and Shanghai, for example. impact Embedding low-carbon ideology in design from the outset means owners and investors reap the rewards in profitability, longer-term cost control and reduced costs of disposal. Assuming new buildings are designed and built with low or even negligible carbon impact, focus shifts to operational cost. At the planning stage, funders and developers calculate the whole-life cost of a building, including in terms of conventional economics. Operation costs: Environmental ‘cost’ is an extension of this process. Aspects for consideration Focus on future including environmentally friendly power sources and reduced energy consumption. proofing The solutions lie in areas such as the ready availability of renewable energy and its design and flexible use. Examples include the integration of proper insulation, heat recycling, the use of locally based solar or wind-driven power – unless such renewable energy sources are available from the grid. Each makes a significant difference to the ongoing costs of running a building, as well as reducing its carbon footprint. If disposal is by transfer of ownership to a buyer, value can be maintained if the building adheres to modern regulatory expectation as well as that of residents or tenant companies for commercial buildings. Disposal costs: Charges for dumping construction-related waste continues to soar. If the disposal involves demolition and replacement, use of recyclable materials in original Value considerations construction will significantly reduce disposal costs. The ‘virtuous circle’ – for ways to reduce carbon. A key both tenant businesses and residents. route is by ‘retrofitting’ materials and Efficient heating, cooling or lighting optimising costs and technologies, delivering significant and their control systems mean environmental impact positive effects. Examples include lower bills. Lower-carbon buildings A ‘virtuous circle’ brings together benefits improving insulation, replacing help businesses meet their own in capital and whole-life costs, as well as conventional heating and cooling environmental targets and generate to the environment. Key to achieving this systems and fuel sources, and ‘feel-good’ factors among staff. It’s positive outcome is all stakeholders – installing more efficient lighting and air- worth noting that the ‘silent majority’ – designer, developer and asset investor, conditioning controls. office workers – may decide with their operator and end user – working towards Retrofitting may seem less exciting feet in which building they would prefer a common goal. to work. Invariably, the preference will than new-build investment, but it can be for a comfortable, well-designed and Owners of existing buildings face make a massive impact on carbon energy-efficient workplace with high different but similar challenges. reduction, and also make buildings indoor air quality. Designers and operators are looking significantly more attractive to users, www.curriebrown.com
10 June 2021 Insight Growing ‘new’ economies, led by China but including India and Indonesia, for example, are heavily dependent on carbon fuels such as coal to support their massive and much more recent industrial growth Regional variations, commitment to change. Those two Capital is following the trend towards nations account for 40 per cent of the low-carbon activity. The election of shared global vision world’s carbon emissions. President Biden has led in turn to Critics argue that the mature a firm US commitment to renew its In the Middle East, the policy economies of the West may find efforts to tackle climate change, with commitments of major oil producers it easier to de-carbonise, given new targets set for reducing emissions such as Saudi Arabia and the United the extent to which they have ‘de- and, for example, encouraging Arab Emirates to shift away from their industrialised’ and shifted to service- the switch away from the internal dependency on carbon and towards based activities over time. Growing combustion engine. The US fund renewables speak volumes in terms ‘new’ economies, led by China but management giant BlackRock recently of the way climate issues impact on including India and Indonesia, for warned that it may dump investments policy. The major Gulf Co-operation example, are heavily dependent on in companies that do not respond Council economies are investing carbon fuels such as coal to support effectively to the net zero carbon heavily in solar power and other forms their massive and much more recent challenge, reflecting the growing of alternative fuel, a trend that would industrial growth. climate activism within the financial not have been imagined during the There is evidence, however, that sector. ‘peak oil’ period of recent decades. those nations can leverage new In Glasgow later this year the COP26 There are many key drivers for all this. technologies to effectively help conference will attract world leaders Firstly, modern economies need to their economies leapfrog towards to commit further to stepping up diversify away from dependency on renewable energy more quickly than measures to tackle the looming any single major industry. The world the major powers of the West. China crisis. How we build in future, and the will continue to need oil and gas for signed up to the Paris Agreement of techniques and materials we use, will decades to come, but that must be 2015, and is renewing its commitment be at the heart of that debate, which balanced to reduce harmful overall to tackle climate change (despite it is hoped will generate targeted emissions. Most of the oil-producing recently requesting a longer roadmaps more than ‘feel-good’ wish nations recognise that. The move timeframe), just as the United States lists. towards electric vehicles is likely to has emerged from the Trump era become unstoppable and will disrupt to re-engage with the international the petro-economies of the Middle East. www.curriebrown.com
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