#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank

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#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
#3

            BREXIT
    WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON
THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS?
#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                          UNDER PRESSURE #3

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            6-9                   10 - 13                                14 - 18                             19 - 23

    TIMELINE OF A PLANNED   ANALYSIS OF BREXIT                         FOCUS ON                        WHERE DO BREXIT'S
          BREAK-UP           RELATED MOVES                             FINTECHS                          "EXILES" GO?

                                                                       INTERVIEW                           BREXIT AND
                                                                    SMART LENDERS AM                   THE DUBLIN MARKET

                                                      24 - 29                            30 - 31                              32 - 33

                                                    BREXIT AND                         BREXIT AND                        BREXIT AND THE
                                                 THE PARIS MARKET                  THE LONDON MARKET                   RESIDENTIAL MARKET

                                                 INTERVIEW                                                                  INTERVIEW
                                             CHOOSE PARIS REGION                                                           MARK HARVEY
                                                                                                                           KNIGHT FRANK
#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       UNDER PRESSURE #3

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    Contact
    David Bourla
    Chief Economist
    & Head of Research France
    +33 (0)1 43 16 55 75
    david.bourla@fr.knightfrank.com                                      Scan this QR code and
                                                                       check out our "Brexit: Under
    Authors                                                                 Pressure" playlist

    David Bourla
    Chief Economist
    & Head of Research France

    Annabelle Vavasseur
    Research analyst France                                                                           Just over a year ago, Michel Barnier, the European Union's chief    also be reaffirmed: the rising number of movements carried
                                                                                                      negotiator, said that "preparations for a no deal [were] more       out by Fintechs, companies that combine finance and digital
    london market focus                                                                               important than ever". Theresa May, then Prime Minister of the       technology and to which we are devoting part of this study,
                                                                                                      United Kingdom, faced the discontent of the Tories and the          and the high number of projects identified outside the finance
    Faisal Durrani                                                                                    opposition. Having failed to get her country out of the EU by       sector (lawyers, audio-visual and pharmaceutical companies,
                                                                                                      the 29th March 2019 deadline, she was forced to resign in May.      etc), illustrating the impact of Brexit on several sectors of the
    Head of London Commercial Research
                                                                                                      Since then, things have moved quickly. Installed at 10 Downing      economy.
    dublin market focus                                                                               Street since July 2019, Boris Johnson was the big winner of the
    John Ring                                                                                         December parliamentary elections, congratulating himself on         At first glance, the ranking of the cities attracting the most
                                                                                                      having obtained "a powerful new mandate to get Brexit done".        Brexit-related movements has changed little in one year.
    Head of Research Ireland                                                                                                                                              Dublin remains firmly in first place, ahead of a quartet
                                                                                                      What is the current situation? The UK's exit from the EU,           comprising Paris, Luxembourg, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.
    © Knight Frank SNC 2020
                                                                                                      which became official on 1st February 2020, has by no means         However, two cities stand out for their growing popularity:
    Knight Frank Commercial Research provides strategic advice,
    consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of                                           removed all uncertainty. Talks on a free trade agreement            Amsterdam, which has built its success on its ability to attract
    clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding
    organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All                                  between London and Brussels have just begun and the                 companies with a variety of profiles and is leaving Frankfurt
    our clients recognise the need for expert independant advice                                      transition period, initially planned to last eleven months, could   behind more markedly, and above all Paris, which has caught
    customised to their specific needs.
    Knight Frank research reports are also available at
                                                                                                      well be extended1. Many issues will be negotiated, with the         up with Luxembourg and is therefore in second place behind
    KnightFrank.fr.                                                                                   main challenge being the alignment of British and European          Dublin. Although this breakthrough has resulted in new office
    This report is published for general information only. Although                                   regulations. The subject is particularly sensitive for financial    space being let or purchased to house Brexit's "exiles", the
    high standards have been used in the preparation of the
    information, analysis, views and projections presented in                                         companies. Many of them have already anticipated the risks          increase in activity remains modest in terms of the Greater
    this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by Knight
    Frank Commercial Research or Knight Frank SNC for any loss
                                                                                                      associated with Brexit by obtaining one or more approvals from      Paris Region commercial real estate market as a whole. What
    or damage resulting from the contents of this document. As                                        local regulatory authorities, or by opening offices in European     will happen in the coming months? What are the trends in
    a general report, this material does not necessarily represent
    the view of Knight Frank SNC in relation to particular                                            Union countries. A total of 530 actual or potential relocation      other European cities?
    properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole
    or in part is allowed with proper reference to Knight Frank
                                                                                                      projects have been identified since the referendum in 2016.
    Commercial Research.                                                                              This number could have been even higher if political uncertainty    These are some of the topics addressed in this third edition of
    Knight Frank SNC is the French branch of Knight Frank LLP.                                        had not encouraged a wait-and-see attitude among companies          our "Under Pressure" report series, the content of which was
    Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered
    in England.                                                                                       in 2019.                                                            produced in collaboration with Knight Frank's international
    Pictures: ©Shutterstock / ©Pexels / ©Unsplash.                                                                                                                        research teams and includes, for the first time, an analysis of
    Cover : freely inspired by the work of Shepard Fairey                                             The formalisation of Brexit, and the expected completion of the     Brexit's impact on the luxury residential market. Regarding the
    "Celebration Day", 18 December 2012.
                                                                                                      transition period, should result in the announcement of new         design, it once again pays tribute to almost half a century of
                                                                                                      movements and, above all, in the implementation of projects         British music and popular culture.
    Connecting                                                                                        already initiated by companies to ensure their access to the
                                                                                                      common market. Two of the trends seen last year should              Enjoy reading and listening!
    people & property,
    perfectly.
                                                                                                      1
                                                                                                          Study completed on 1st March 2020.
#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
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                             UNDER PRESSURE #3

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    TIMELINE OF A PLANNED BREAK-UP
#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         UNDER PRESSURE #3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2nd March                                                                    31st
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          December
                                                                                                   13th July                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Start of talks on a
8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            free trade agreement                                                         End of the transition      9
                                                                                                   Theresa May replaces David                                                                                                                                                                                                between the UK and                                                           period, if it is not

                                2016                                                               Cameron at 10 Downing Street.
                                                                                                   She is now responsible for                   2017                               29th April                                                                           1 February
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           st
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             the EU.                                                                      extended.

                                                                                                   implementing the referendum                                                                                                                                    The United Kingdom is no longer
                                                                                                   result .                                                                       At a special summit, EU
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     a member of the EU. As a non-
                                                                                                                                                                                 leaders show their unity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    EU member, it will no longer be
                                                                                                                                                                                 by unanimously adopting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    involved in EU decision-making
                                                                                                                                                                                  broad guidelines to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        processes, but will still have
                                                                                                                                                                                 used during negotiations
    23rd June                                                                                                                                   29th                                    with the UK.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  access, during a transition period
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of eleven months, to the internal                                                                                30th June
    British voters end,
                                                                                                                                               March                                                                              2020                               market and the customs union.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The United Kingdom
    by 51.9%, 43 years                                                                                                                        Article 50 of the                                                                                                                                                                                                                     has until that date to
    of European Union                                                                                                                        Treaty on the EU is                                                                                                                                                                             #3                                     inform the EU of its
    membership.                                                                                                                             invoked, and the UK                                                                                                                                                                                                                     willingness to extend
                                                                                                                                            exit process officially                                                                                                                                                                        BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the transition period
                                                                                                                                                    began.                                                                                                                                                                                                                          from one to two years.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   29th January                                                                               Under
                                                                                                                                                                                             8th December                                                                                                                    Pressure
                                                                                                                                                                                     First agreement between the UK and            After a favourable vote                                                                      #3
                                                                                                         27 July
                                                                                                               th                                                                       the EU on the terms of the divorce
                                                                                                                                                                                          (final settlement paid by London,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   by the British MPs and its
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   promulgation by Queen
                                                                                                                                                                                   preservation of the rights of British and       Elizabeth II, the Brexit deal
                                                                                          Jean-Claude Junker, President of
                                                                                            the European Commission, puts                                                          European citizens, Irish border). Phase         is ratified by the European
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Parliament.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     28th October
                                                                                           the Frenchman Michel Barnier in                                                                       II of the negotiations begin.
                                                                                             charge of negotiations with the                                                                                                                                                                                                          Approval by the EU of a
                                                                                            UK, pursuant to article 50 of the                                                                                                                                                                                                        further postponement of
                                                                                                   Lisbon Treaty on the EU.                                                                                                                                                                                                      Brexit until 31st January 2020.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 The following day, the British
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Parliament gives the green
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       light for early elections.                                    17-19th
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     October
                                                                                       12th July                                                                                             2018                                                                                                                                                                                                    London and the EU announce
                               The white paper published by the                                                                                                                                                                              12 December     th                                                                                                                                      a new agreement on Brexit.
                               British government, setting out its
                               plans for the post-Brexit period, is
                                                                                                                                                                                             19th March                                        Overwhelming Conservative
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     However, the House of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Commons votes on an
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     amendment forcing the British
                             a failure. It is coldly received by the                                                                                                                         The UK and the EU agree                         victory in the general election.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Prime Minister to ask for a
                              EU and also provokes displeasure                                                                                                                               on the terms of a non-                             Boris Johnson is pleased to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     further postponement of the
                             in the City, as the paper waives the                                                                                                                            renewable post-Brexit                         obtain "a powerful new mandate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     divorce.
                             UK’s right to benefit from a financial                                                                                                                          transition period which, in                                  to get Brexit done".
                                                           passport.                                                                                                                         the event of a deal, will last
                                                                                                                                                                                             until 31st December 2020.

                                                                                          20th                                                                                                                                                                                      29th March
                                                                                          September                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                24th May
                                                                                                                                          25th                                                                                                                                      The British Parliament rejects for the
                                                                                          During the Salzburg summit,
                                                                                          the EU rejects the British plan                 November                                                                                                                                  third time the deal negotiated by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Theresa May. This day also marks the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Theresa announces her
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   resignation the day after
                                                                                          (known as “Chequers”) that they                                                                                                                                                           end of the two-year period provided
                                                                                                                                          Theresa May and the Heads of                                                                                                                                                                                             the European elections
                                                                                          consider to be incompatible with                                                                                                                                                          for in Article 50 of the EU Treaty in
                                                                                          the integrity of the single market.             State and Government of the                                                             Under                                             which the procedure for exiting a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in the United Kingdom.
                                                                                                                                          Union endorse an exit deal.
                                                                                                                                                                                      2019                                       Pressure                                           member state must be completed.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    #2
        Under
       Pressure
          #1
                                                                                             13-15th November                                                             12th March                                                                                                                                11th April                                                                 24th July
                                                                      BREXIT
                                                                      UNDER PRESSURE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       #2
                                                                                        Theresa May and the EU reach a compromise.                            After an initial rejection in January,                                    BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The Brexit date is                                                         Boris Johnson is appointed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    postponed to 31st
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ON THE EUROPEAN

                                                                                               Among the major breakthroughs is the                             the British Parliament once more                                                                                                                                                                                               Prime Minister and promises
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    REAL ESTATE MARKETS?

                                                                                         possibility of a 'backstop' that would prevent                            rejects the deal negotiated by                                                                                                                   October 2019.                                                              to take the United Kingdom
                                                                                              the return of a physical border between                           Theresa May. For Michel Barnier,                                                                                                                                                                                               out of the European Union
       Brexit :
       What will its impact be on the European real estate markets?                         the two Irelands, by keeping the UK in the                       preparations for a no deal are "now                                                                                                                                                                                               by 31st October 2019, with or
                                                                                                             European Customs Union.                                  more important than ever".                                                                                                                                                                                               without a deal.
#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
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                          PERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY                                             the mutual recognition of British and European regulations
                                                                                             that is at the heart of the discussions between London and
                          In the previous two editions of our Brexit report series, we       Brussels. The City thus wishes to perpetuate a system of
                          indicated that it was difficult to accurately know the number      equivalence in order to compensate, at least partially, for the
                          of movements and job gains associated with the UK's exit           loss of the famous financial passport, and to offer visibility to
                          from the European Union. Indeed, many companies had not            companies based there. However, these hopes were quickly
                          yet obtained a license from the local regulatory authorities,      dashed: in a speech delivered in Strasbourg on 11th February
                          validated their choice of destination or decided on the            2020, Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator, pointed
                          exact number of employees to be relocated. Although                out that the United Kingdom would not benefit from any
                          Brexit is now official, this difficulty in measuring the           preferential treatment in this area, as the Union wanted to
                          consequences will persist until the framework for future           keep control over the granting of equivalence systems and
     ANALYSIS OF BREXIT   relations between London and Brussels is fully clarified.          retain the possibility of withdrawing them unilaterally and

                                                                                             “
                          The uncertainty could even continue beyond 31st December           without delay.
     RELATED MOVES        2020, the date on which the transition period is theoretically
                          due to end. Negotiations between London and Brussels to               "I would like to make it clear to certain UK officials that
                          bring to an end almost half a century of coexistence look             there should be no illusion on this issue: there will
                          set to be complicated by the infinite number of issues to be          be no general, blanket or permanent equivalence on
                          dealt with, in sectors as varied as security, energy, fisheries,      financial services."
                          transport and, of course, finance.
                                                                                                  Michel Barnier, excerpt from a speech to MEPs in
                                                                                                  Strasbourg on 11th February 2020.
                          Despite the uncertainty, the monitoring system set up
                          by Knight Frank since the 2016 referendum still makes
                          it possible to estimate the impact of Brexit on business
                                                                                             QUARTERLY CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVES
                          mobility. Some 530 movements, certain or potential, have           SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL PROJECTS OR ACTUAL
                          already been identified in Europe. Following ten in 2016, 109      RELOCATIONS. AS AT 1ST MARCH 2020.

                          were recorded in 2017 and 222 in 2018. This acceleration
                          continued in the first quarter of 2019 with 73 movements
                          recorded - the highest level ever seen in a quarter since the      Q3 2016                                                       4
                          referendum - before slowing down sharply in the following
                                                                                             Q4 2016                                                       6
                          three quarters. Over 2019 as a whole, 162 projects were
                          identified, down 27% on the previous year. This slowdown           Q1 2017                                                       16
                          confirms the irregularity of Brexit-related movements over
                                                                                             Q2 2017                                                       25
                          time: almost 56% of the 530 movements recorded were
                          between the beginning of 2018 and the end of the first             Q3 2017                                                       38
                          quarter of 2019, compared with 22% between the June 2016
                                                                                             Q4 2017                                                       30
                          referendum and the end of 2017, and 22% since the second
                          quarter of 2019. After an initial period of hesitation, most       Q1 2018                                                       40
                          companies have taken initial actions to protect themselves
                          from the risks associated with Brexit - the priority being         Q2 2018                                                       60
                          to remove regulatory uncertainty by obtaining licenses to                                                                        62
                                                                                             Q3 2018
                          operate within the European Union. As for the slowdown in
                          the number of movements recorded between the spring of             Q4 2018                                                       60
                          2019 and the beginning of 2020, this is no doubt due to the
                                                                                             Q1 2019                                                       73
                          wait-and-see attitude of some companies, given the delays
                          in Brexit, negotiated last year between London and Brussels        Q2 2019                                                       46
                          in order to avoid a no deal scenario.
                                                                                             Q3 2019                                                       24

                          This wait-and-see attitude may not continue into 2020.             Q4 2019                                                       19
                          After many months of political uncertainty, Brexit has indeed
                                                                                             JAN-FEB                                                       27
                          become inevitable. The motivation of companies will be
                                                                                                2020
                          all the stronger as a hard Brexit cannot be ruled out until
                          the negotiations are concluded. In the world of finance, it is
#3 BREXIT WHAT WILL ITS IMPACT BE ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKETS? - Knight Frank
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     FINANCE STILL                                            BREAKDOWN OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVES BY ACTIVITY (OF THE TOTAL NUMBER, IN %)
                                                                                                                                                         postponement of the formalisation of                      Another trend that could also gain
     AT THE FOREFRONT                                         SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL PROJECTS OR ACTUAL RELOCATIONS. AS AT 1ST     Brexit and the transitional arrangements                  momentum, but this time with less
                                                              MARCH 2020.                                                                                put in place by some countries have                       effect in terms of job creation, is that
     Finance, which is at the heart of                                                                                                                   also maintained the status quo. In                        of an increase in the number of
     the subject of regulatory alignment                                                                                                                 Luxembourg, a law passed in April 2019                    acquisition transactions enabling
     between the UK and the EU, is the                                                                                                                   provides that British companies could,                    non-European companies to facilitate
     sector with the largest number of                                                                                                        Finance    under certain conditions, be authorised                   their access to the common market.
                                                                                                                                                 64%
     Brexit-related movements. Its share,                                     Other                                                                      to continue their activities in the Grand                 Several examples have already been
     which was 72% a year ago, is now                                         9%                                                                         Duchy for a period of 21 months in the                    identified, such as the acquisition by
                                                                                                                                             Insurance
     64% (337 actual or potential projects                                                                                                         12%   event of a no deal Brexit. The EU was                     Australia's EML of Ireland's Prepaid
     out of the 5230 identified since 2016).                                                                                                             fairly conciliatory, but nevertheless                     Financial Services in the Fintech
                                                                   Legal/Advisory
     The balance relates to a multitude of                         6%                                                                                    reiterated that obtaining licences must                   sector, or the takeover of Germany's
     other activities, for which regulated                                                                                                               be accompanied by the establishment                       MainFirst Bank by the American
     access to the common market is often                                                                                                                of genuinely capitalised subsidiaries                     Stifel in the investment banking
     strategic. This is of course the case                                                                                                               employing a significant number of                         sector. Finally, in the legal field, a
                                                                   Services

                                                                                                                                                         “
     for insurance (12% of all Brexit-related                                                                                                            employees.                                                Smith & Williamson study published
                                                                   3%
     movements), and the legal professions                                                                                                                                                                         in November 20192 indicated that
     (6%), as illustrated by the sharp rise in                                                                                                                  “In some cases authorisations have                 80% of the top 20 Irish law firms had
     the number of British lawyers registered                      Audiovisual                                                                                  been granted, but that it is not                   been approached by one of their
                                                                   3%
     with the Dublin Bar (nearly 4,000 since                                                                                                                    clear that the associated transfer                 UK competitors in the context of a
     the 2016 referendum, according to the                                                                                                                      of assets, skilled staff and risk                  possible merger or acquisition.
     Law Society of Ireland) and several                           Pharmaceutical                                                                               functions associated with the newly
     high-profile arrivals (Dentons, Pinsent                       3%                                                                                           authorised business have been
     Masons, etc.). However, the choice of                                                                                                                      implemented to their fullest extent.
     location for law firms, whether British,                                                                                                                   It is imperative that they have the
     American or Asian, is not limited to                                                                                                                       capability to manage the risks they
     the Irish capital: Frankfurt (Fieldfisher,                                                                                                                 generate from the first day after the
     Nishimura & Asahi), Brussels (Bristows,                                                                                                                    withdrawal of the UK”
     Reed Smith), Luxembourg (Ashurst,                        by the fact that while the UK hosted           America headquarters on rue La Boétie.
                                                                                                                                                                  Communication of the European
     Goodwin) and Paris (Kirkland & Ellis,                    half of all channels broadcasting in EU        At almost 90%, the high share of the                 Banking Authority on the UK
     Sideman & Bancroft) have also been                       countries in 2018, this share fell to just     financial sector in the overall Brexit-              withdrawal from the EU, 8th
                                                                                                                                                                  October 2019.
     chosen as a result of Brexit-related                     over a third in 2019, particularly to the      related job gains expected in Paris
     movements.                                               benefit of the Netherlands, Spain and          is therefore not surprising. The trend
                                                              the Czech Republic1.                           is the same in other major European         Over the coming months, the
     Other activities concerned vary greatly.                                                                cities, with the notable exception of       formalisation of Brexit and the
     Among them is the pharmaceutical                         The reduction in finance's share of            Amsterdam, where EMA expatriates            expected conclusion of the
     industry, whose movements have                           all movements needs to be put into             (nearly 800 ultimately) make up the bulk    negotiations between London and
     mainly targeted the Netherlands due to                   perspective: this sector still accounts        of the Brexit exile ranks.                  Brussels will therefore result in
     the move of the European Medicines                       for a very large majority of Brexit-related                                                new movements and, above all, in
     Agency (EMA) to Amsterdam. In the                        recruitment, whether for positions             HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE                         the completion of projects already
     same country, several NGOs have                          already filled or to be filled. It is in the   BREXIT-RELATED JOB GAINS?                   initiated by companies with the aim of
     relocated their teams to The Hague,                      finance sector, and the banking sector                                                     securing their access to the common
     an important place for international                     in particular, that the most job-creating      That said, the actions taken by             market. This will most probably result
     law (Euclid network, Field Ready,                        movements have also been identified.           companies to protect themselves             in an increase in the number of jobs
     Mercy Corps, Redress, etc.). Finally,                    Paris provides a good example of this,         from the effects of Brexit have above       created by Brexit, as well as in new
     the last few months have confirmed                       with the 200 or so employees of the            all, and quite logically, focused on        leases of office space to house these
     the restructuring of the audio-visual                    European Banking Agency (EBA) who              obtaining approvals and on initial          new employees.
     sector due to the need for international                 have been based in La Défense since            targeted recruitment to prepare new
     channels to continue to broadcast their                  June 2019, and the 400 people who will         locations, rather than on recruiting
     content within the EU. This is evidenced                 be accommodated h in the new Bank of           large contingents of employees. The

     1
         Source: European Audiovisual Observatory, January 2020.                                                                                         2
                                                                                                                                                             Source: Smith & Williamson, Smith & Williamson Annual Survey of Irish law Firms 2019/2020.
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             UNDER PRESSURE #3

                                                                                                                                           “
14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 15
                                                                                                                                              “Financial services faces challenges similar to other              Although the number of Fintech movements increased
                                                                                                                                              sectors to secure the specialist technology and digital            slightly compared to the previous edition of our Brexit study,
                                                                                                                                              talent that it requires with digital skills now a utility across   the hierarchy of the main destinations remained almost
                                                                                                                                              the entire economy. This war for talent will continue and          unchanged: Dublin retains its leading position with 23% of the
                                                                                                                                              intensify”                                                         actual or potential projects identified in Europe, the majority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 of which are Fintech projects originating in the United States.
                                                                                                                                                Financial services skills taskforce, final report,
                                                                                                                                                TheCityUK, January 2020.                                         The next most popular locations are Paris (15%), Luxembourg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (14%), Amsterdam (13%) and Vilnius (10%). The remainder is
                                                                                                                                           Regulation is another key issue. Many fintech companies are           spread among several cities including Brussels, Madrid, Berlin
                                                                                                                                           therefore multiplying the number of licence applications for          and Helsinki.
                                                                                                                                           continued access to the EU market. Depending on Fintech's
                                                                                                                                           characteristics and goals, two statuses regulated by the PSD2         Each of these cities has a number of advantages to attract
                                                                                                                                           directive are possible. One concerns the licence for electronic       Fintechs. For example, Dublin is the economic capital of a
                                                                                                                                           money institutions (payment or foreign exchange transactions,         country, Ireland, which is naturally favoured because of its
                                                                                                                                           issuing or acquiring payment instruments, etc), the other for         geographical, cultural and regulatory proximity to the British
                                                                                                                                           payment institutions (credit card processing service, service         market. As the main beneficiary of Brexit-related movements,
                                                                                                                                           to foreign exchange and payment companies, etc). This is              the financial ecosystem has also been significantly
     FOCUS ON FINTECHS                                                                                                                     a fundamental difference that explains the wide range of              strengthened since 2016. Finally, the city is also a stronghold
                                                                                                                                           applications submitted to the regulators. Some Fintechs
     A few weeks after Brexit was officially implemented, there are      of the largest leases in London at the end of 2019. The scale     have also increased the number of licence applications to             PREFERRED DESTINATIONS FOR FINTECHS WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 BREXIT SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL PROJECTS OR
     still a lot of questions for the finance sector in the UK. London   of fundraising also reflects the lead taken by the United         target different geographical areas. Revolut is a perfect, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ACTUAL RELOCATIONS. AS AT 1ST MARCH 2020.
     will certainly not lose its status as one of the world's leading    Kingdom. Innovate Finance thus estimates their total at 4.9       particularly interesting, example: whilst remaining in London,
     financial centres, despite the relocation movements of the          billion dollars in 2019, i.e. 58% of the investments made in      the company will also be based in Vilnius, which will serve as

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              18
     largest British banking institutions such as HSBC and Barclays.     Europe and an amount 85% higher than that raised in France        a gateway to Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in Dublin
     In another newer and less developed field such as Fintech,          over the same period!                                             as part of its expansion into Western Europe. As such, Brexit is
     what will the consequences of Brexit be? The subject is all                                                                           not so much challenging the pre-eminence of British Fintechs,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DUBLIN
     the more important as these innovative companies, relying on        WHAT IMPACT HAS BREXIT HAD                                        but should instead allow a shift in the balance in favour of
     new technologies to rethink financial and banking services,         ON BRITISH FINTECHS?                                              several other European cities.
     are booming in London and heavily dependent on a pool
     of British but also foreign talent – according to TheCityUK,        London remains a major financial centre, the Tech ecosystem       A HIERARCHY IS EMERGING
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    PARIS
     the latter account for 28% of finance jobs in London, including     is large and mature, and it will be particularly difficult
     17% for EU nationals. So will UK Fintechs continue to be            to dethrone it in terms of fund-raising and other areas.          This relative shift of power is illustrated by the 79 Brexit-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        11
     attractive to the best international professionals? And how         Moreover, the growth of the sector is amplified by the            related Fintech movements recorded by Knight Frank
     will they access the vast EU market after the London-Brussels       presence of the world's major digital leaders, including the      between the 2016 referendum and the beginning of 2020.
     negotiations?                                                       famous GAFA. Facebook recently announced the creation             Fintechs therefore account for only 15% of all Brexit-related            LUXEMBOURG
                                                                         of a thousand new jobs in London, in part to fight against        movements, far behind traditional finance. Similarly, Fintech
     LONDON, THE UNDISPUTED EUROPEAN                                     undesirable content. This example of massive recruitment          projects generally concern only a limited number of jobs. For
     CAPITAL OF FINTECHS                                                 puts the finger on one of Brexit's main challenges for British
                                                                         Fintech: its ability to continue to attract and retain the best
                                                                                                                                           example, they are expected to bring only 250 new jobs to
                                                                                                                                           Paris, compared to the 3,500 currently expected in the French
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    AMSTERDAM
     Although Brexit may have slowed economic activity and               foreign talent. In order to develop, these companies need         capital due to Brexit. However, the low proportion of Fintech
     fostered a climate of uncertainty that investors generally          a workforce that is large enough to keep pace with the            jobs should be put into perspective: while the workforce of
     abhor, the UK nevertheless remains well ahead of other
     European countries. For example, the Fintech sector employs
                                                                         exponential growth of their business, and qualified enough to
                                                                         ensure their technological edge. Growing uncertainty about
                                                                                                                                           banks has been shrinking steadily over the years (-18% in
                                                                                                                                           Europe between 2008 and 2018 according to the ECB), the                                 8
     almost 60,000 people in the UK, about twice as many as in           the mobility of international workers and visa arrangements       number of Fintech jobs is growing steadily. This is the case             VILNIUS
     France and Germany. Moreover, the country already has 7             could thus become a major obstacle, especially as the UK          of N26, which doubled its global workforce between 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5
     Fintech unicorns, compared with five in the rest of Europe,         economy and London's economy in particular are already            and 2019 to reach 1,500 employees. Finally, and contrary to
     which include N26 (Germany), Klarna (Sweden), Adyen                 facing a severe shortage of talent.                               the trend observed in other sectors, the number of Fintech
     (Netherlands) and Ivalua (France). Among the British Fintechs,                                                                        Brexit-related movements has grown steadily over the years,              BRUSSELS
     some in particular stand out, such as Revolut which, with 500
     million dollars, has just completed the biggest fund-raising in
                                                                                                                                           from 18 projects in 2016 and 2017, to 24 in 2018 and 37 since
                                                                                                                                           the beginning of 2019.                                                                                   15
     the history of European Fintechs, and Monzo which, by renting                                                                                                                                                  OTHER
     just over 10,000 sq m of office space in the City, signed one
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      UNDER PRESSURE #3

16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             17
     of the tech giants, since the European headquarters of Google
     and Facebook are located here, as well as more than 2,000
                                                                                        business climate in recent years, particularly in terms
                                                                                        of taxation. The PACTE law has also contributed to this
                                                                                                                                                                      INTERVIEW                                                          Following the June 2016 referendum on Brexit,
     Microsoft employees. Amsterdam, which recently attracted                           improvement with, for example, the introduction of a legislative                                                                                 you quickly considered moving your London
     Tradeweb Markets, and Luxembourg, chosen by Alipay to set                          framework for fundraising in ICO (Initial Coin Offering)                                                                                         operations to France. What were the main criteria
     up its European hub, are also home to many Tech companies                          cryptocurrency. These regulatory changes have contributed                                                                                        that led you to choose a location in France, and
     and also benefit from an advantageous fiscal and regulatory                        to Fintech's growth in France: in 2019, fundraising reached                                                                                      more specifically in Paris?
     framework. Finally, Vilnius stands out from these other cities                     nearly €700 million, with an average transaction doubling from
     because the Fintechs there represent the bulk of Brexit-                           one year to the next and five transactions in excess of €50                                                                                      We set up in Paris in October 2017 after obtaining AMF approval
     related movements, and significant ones at that (Google Pay,                       million, including Wynd, Payfit and Younited Credit. Three new                                                                                   for our management company. We moved our activities,
     TransferGo, Revolut, etc.). The local authorities and economic                     transactions were completed in January, including Qonto's                                                                                        including the management of our investment vehicles, on 1st
     players have made Fintechs a priority, between tax aid,                            record raising of 104 million euros. The trend therefore                                                                                         January 2018. As our activity is regulated, we are required to
     support and the fluidity of the regulatory framework and it                        remains very positive, so much so that Kat Borlongan, Director                                                                                   have a European passport for the management and marketing
     takes only three months, for example, to obtain a licence.                         of the French Tech Mission, recently announced that France                                                                                       of our Luxembourg fund. We therefore took the decision in June
     Lithuania also benefits from a well-trained workforce that                         could have 25 unicorns by 2025! This is an ambitious but not                                                                                     2017 to leave the United Kingdom to set up the company in a
     is fluent in English and whose cost is much lower than the                         unrealistic figure given the strong growth of some national                                                                                      European Union country. The choice of Paris was a natural

                                                                                                                                                                      SMART LENDERS
     European average.                                                                  champions. Indeed, seven Fintechs belong to the Next401                                                                                          one as the 4 partners of Smart Lenders AM are French, and
                                                                                        (Younited Credit, October, Ledger, etc) and six others have                                                                                      we all have a long professional experience in Paris, hence our
     What role do Paris and France play within this context?
     Entrepreneurs have been benefiting from a more favourable
                                                                                        joined the FT1202 (Lemon Way, LGO Group, Lydia, etc).
                                                                                                                                                                      ASSET                                                              networks of clients and contacts in the financial industry, as well
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         as a good knowledge of the regulatory framework and the AMF.

     1

     2
      Index launched by the French government in 2019 and comprising a selection of 40 French start-ups with high potential.
       80 start-ups have been added to the Next40, constituting the FT120 programme. These companies benefit from tailor-made support to accelerate their growth in
                                                                                                                                                                      MANAGEMENT                                                         We are based on Boulevard Haussmann, close to Saint
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Augustin and Parc Monceau, where many leading banks and
     France and abroad.
                                                                                                                                                                      Erich Bonnet, CEO                                                  prestigious management companies are located. We thought it

     FINTECH UNICORNS IN EUROPE, VALUATION IN $ BN                                                                                                                    et Fabien Jullia, Partner, Managing                                would be easier for their clients to come and see us!
     SOURCE: CB INSIGHTS 2020
                                                                                                                                                                      Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         What is your view on the welcome conditions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         offered by France to entrepreneurs, in the Fintech
                                                                                                                  SWEDEN
                                                                                                                                                                      Please introduce Smart Lenders Asset                               sector in particular?
                                                                                                                                                                      Management. What are your areas of expertise
                                                                                                                 $5.5B
                                                                                                                                                                      and what is your presence in the European                          We waited until June 2017 to take the decision to move our
                                                UNITED-KINGDOM                                                                                                        markets?                                                           activities to France because we first wanted to be sure of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         the French political context. The new government seemed
                                                                                                                                                                      Smart Lenders AM is an asset management company                    to us to be favourable to business and entrepreneurs in
                                      $3.5B          $3.5B         $2.6B
                                                                                                                                                                      specialising in the management of loan portfolios acquired         general, particularly from a tax point of view, for example with
                                                                                                                                                                      through online platforms. The company was launched in 2014         the introduction of the "flat tax" on capital income. These
                                                                                                                                                                      in London with a team of 4 people. Smart Lenders AM has            changes have brought France back to a good average at a
                                                                                               GERMANY
                                                                                                                                                                      raised more than $350M from private and institutional investors    European level, thereby making it competitive once again for
                                       $2B          $1.7B           $1.1B                                                                                             and has experienced an average annual growth of 65% in             entrepreneurs wishing to set up in the country. Furthermore,
                                                                                                                                                                      turnover over the last three years. We began our investments       public and regulatory bodies, such as the AMF, the Greater
                                                                                         $3.5B         $1.8B
                                                                                                                                                                      through US platforms with an algorithmic approach to risk          Paris Region authorities and the Choose Paris Region agency,
                                                                                                                                                                      assessment and loan selection. We adopted this approach            provided us with strong support and facilitated our move
                                                                                                                                                                      in order to be able to analyse a large number of small loans,      to Paris. In addition to these factors, the interest shown
                                                                   FRANCE                                                                                             granted to consumers and then to small businesses in the           today in technology companies (including Fintech), and
                                                                                         $1.2B          $1B                                                           United States. Since 2019, we also invest in loans to very small   the development of innovation in France by the public
                                                                                                                                                                      businesses and small and medium-sized businesses through           authorities and the general public, is a real support factor.
                                                                    $1.1B
                                                                                                                                                                      European platforms in France, Germany and Switzerland.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Did you also consider other cities in other
                                                                                                                                                                      The origin of Smart Lenders AM stems from the desire to            countries? If yes, which ones and why?
                                                                                                                                                                      provide European investors with a turnkey solution to access
                                                                                                                                                                      the growing online lending market. Our investors are European      We did indeed consider other cities, but our choice was
                                                                                                                                                                      and we currently manage a fund under Luxembourg law and            quickly decided on Paris for quite natural and personal
                                                                                                                                                                      will also soon manage a fund under French law.                     reasons, as the company's employees and partners were
BREXIT
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18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               19
     mainly French. Moreover, Paris remains an important financial       You recently obtained the French status of
     capital in Europe and is probably the main city, after London,      Young Innovative Company for your research on
     to benefit from a worldwide influence in the cultural,              the integration of artificial intelligence in your
     political, commercial, tourist and nowadays technological           investment activities. Is France a step ahead
     fields. We therefore generally have little difficulty in bringing   on this subject? Do you have other ongoing
     our clients to Paris!                                               development projects?

     In the short and medium term, what are your                         We were granted Young Innovative Company status in the
     growth objectives in France and abroad?                             spring of 2019, specifically for the work carried out by our
                                                                         researchers. France has a long tradition of supporting
     Since our move to Paris, we have recruited 6 new employees          and showcasing its scientific research through incentive
     and we are quite proud to mention that one of them is British       and funding models that support research undertaken by
     and has chosen to leave London to join us in Paris. He              private companies. This enables young companies like ours
     previously worked for Europe's largest small and medium-            to support a research initiative that might otherwise be too
     sized business lending platform.                                    costly for us.                                                 WHERE DO BREXIT'S
                                                                                                                                        "EXILES" GO?
     In the short to medium term, we plan to strengthen our              Our research aims to use artificial intelligence tools to
     research and analysis activities in order to further develop        improve and even automate the credit analysis of small         APPARENT STABILITY                                                   behind the French capital at the end of 2018. The second is
     our models and technological tools. These tools allow us to         companies and thus enable a faster and less risky investment                                                                        Amsterdam, which has also widened the gap with the German
     increase our investment capabilities and economies of scale,        decision than with more traditional analysis. The ultimate     At first glance, the ranking of European cities attracting the       city and confirms its ability to attract companies with a variety
     without having to increase headcount as much as we had              objective is to reduce the cost of investment in order to      most Brexit-related movements has changed little since the           of profiles such as finance (52% of all certain or potential
     originally anticipated. Our efforts are therefore focused on        pass on these savings to the various stakeholders, and thus    beginning of 2019. Dublin, Paris, Luxembourg, Amsterdam,             movements identified in the city, including 16% from Fintech),
     these activities, in the French market only for the time being.     enable a more widespread financing of small companies. Our     Frankfurt, Brussels and Madrid remain the most active markets,       and also the pharmaceutical sector (13%) and the media (11%).
                                                                         projects generally focus on this goal, making quantitative     far ahead of another group of cities comprising Vilnius, Berlin,
     Talent is a scarce commodity in the employment                      analysis tools more reliable to reduce processing costs        Munich, Cork and Milan. This apparent stability is particularly      WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD
     market. Do you feel this tension when searching                     and providing more credit solutions to a larger number of      noteworthy in the case of Dublin, which has maintained               FOR EUROPEAN FINANCE?
     for candidates? Do you think that real estate                       companies requiring them.                                      its leadership since the launch of Knight Frank's Brexit
     has a role to play in attracting or retaining                                                                                      movements monitoring. However, two cities stand out for              The relocation of jobs from London and the, as yet
     employees?                                                                                                                         their growing appeal. The first, Paris, has caught up with and       relative, weakening of the British capital seems likely to
                                                                                                                                        recently overtaken Luxembourg and is now markedly ahead              benefit EU cities, with gains in jobs and images already
     The search for talent is indeed a real challenge, but one that                                                                     of Amsterdam and Frankfurt, while the latter was still close         evident. But what about in the longer term? While the Top
     seems less of a challenge in Paris than in other smaller cities.
     We are fortunate to be able to propose an innovative and
     sound project in a sector that is now attracting a lot of talent.                                                                  NUMBER OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVEMENTS, BY CITY / BY COUNTRY
                                                                                                                                        SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL PROJECTS OR ACTUAL RELOCATIONS. AS AT 1ST MARCH 2020.
     We allocate a significant part of our resources to fundamental
     research, which enables us to attract scientific professionals
     specialising in machine learning or artificial intelligence. In
     fact, one of our researchers is currently preparing a PhD in this
                                                                                                                                                     DUBLIN                      PARIS                  LUXEMBOURG                AMSTERDAM               FRANKFURT
     field. The location of our offices as well as the quality of our
     premises obviously have a role to play, although we are in a
     somewhat challenging situation where we have to combine
     financial backgrounds, which are more likely to be found                                                                                         117                         82                        78                       64                       53
     in western Paris and the CBD, with technical and scientific
     backgrounds, which are nowadays more concentrated in
     the east and the "upcoming" districts. But so far, we have
     managed to take advantage of this culture clash!

                                                                                                                                                      126                         85                        78                       76                       68

                                                                                                                                                    IRELAND                     FRANCE                  LUXEMBOURG               NETHERLANDS               GERMANY
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UNDER PRESSURE #3

20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            21
     5 cities account for almost 75% of all actual or potential                              than 100,000 job cuts projected since the beginning of           centre compared to 34% for the British capital,
     Brexit-related movements, their geographical distribution                               2019 worldwide. The latest announcements include the             a clear reversal of the situation compared to the
     nevertheless creates a more complex and segmented                                       forthcoming loss of 35,000 jobs at HSBC, the majority of         same survey one year earlier (42% and 53%). When
     European landscape. This trend towards fragmentation,                                   which will be in the Americas and Europe, and the relocation     asked which city will dominate the global landscape
     which the financial crisis has already encouraged, obviously                            of the structured products division, currently based in          in the next five years, respondents see New York

     “
     raises the question of the future of European finance.                                  London, to Asia. Having lost nearly 15% of its workforce         and London losing ground. Paris and Frankfurt are
                                                                                             between 2009 and 2018, the European banking sector               not mentioned, however, as the weakening of New
            “From a global standpoint, European capital markets                              could therefore continue to suffer in the coming months          York and London should, in their opinion, primarily
            are too small and fragmented. The goal of the capital                            from banks' decision to reduce their presence on the Old         benefit Asian markets.
            markets union (or CMU) is to develop an ecosystem that                           Continent. There are also questions about Europe's global
            will allow the development of strong European financial                          standing. Indeed, with the official implementation of Brexit,
            markets and intermediaries which are able to compete                             the European Union has disappeared from the Top 10 of
            internationally”.                                                                the world's major financial centres, largely dominated by
                                                                                             New York (1st), London (2nd) and several Asian cities such as
              Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB,
              8 January 2020                                                                 Hong Kong (3rd), Singapore (4th) and Shanghai (5th). Frankfurt
                                                                                             (15th), Paris (17th), Luxembourg (25th) and Amsterdam (37th)
     The subject of the fragility of the European financial system                           are far behind1. A study, recently published by Duff &
     is a recurring concern of European Union supervisors and is                             Phelps2, points to the risk of a weakening of Europe, but
     further exacerbated by the multiplication of announcements                              also of London, compared to other global cities. 56% of
     of restructuring plans in the banking sector, with more                                 respondents cite New York as the world's leading financial

     1
         Source: Z/Yen Partners & The China Development Institute, The Global Financial Centres Index, 2019.
     2
         Source: Duff & Phelps, Global Regulatory Outlook 2020. Global survey of 240 business leaders in the financial sector.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    visuel illustration

     THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTRES INDEX SOURCE: Z/YEN PARTNERS

         CENTRE                                     RANK SEPTEMBER 2019                             RANK SEPTEMBER 2018              CHANGE IN RANK

         NEW YORK                                               1                                               1                           =

         LONDON                                                 2                                               2                           =

         HONG KONG                                              3                                               3                           =

         SINGAPORE                                              4                                               4                           =

         SHANGHAI                                               5                                               5                           =

         TOKYO                                                  6                                               6                           =

         BEIJING                                                7                                               8                           +1

         DUBAI                                                  8                                               15                         +7

         SHENZEN                                                9                                               12                         +3

         SIDNEY                                                 10                                              7                           -3

         FRANKFURT                                              15                                             10                           -5

         PARIS                                                  17                                             23                          +6

         LUXEMBOURG                                            25                                               21                          -4

         AMSTERDAM                                              37                                             35                           -2

         DUBLIN                                                38                                              37                           -1
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                                                                                                                                   regulatory and trade divergence             over 240,000 sq ft on completion and         In this context, the certainty that
                                                                                                                                   between the United Kingdom and              grow Mastercard’s workforce in Dublin        Dublin offers regarding the right of
                                                                                                                                   the European Union, the more office         to over 2,000 in the coming years. As        workers from across Europe to work
                                                                                                                                   space will ultimately be taken by these     part of the plan, Dublin will become         in the city must surely be a significant
                                                                                                                                   companies in Dublin.                        Mastercard’s European Technology             factor behind these decisions.
                                                                                                                                                                               Hub with cyber security, artificial
                                                                                                                                   Playing in Dublin’s favour is its already   intelligence, blockchain and user
                                                                                                                                   relatively large existing financial         experience some of the research areas
                                                                                                                                   services sector infrastructure which        that will be developed at the campus.
                                                                                                                                   ranges from the €1.8 trillion fund          While Brexit has not been mentioned
                                                                                                                                   administration industry to niche areas      by tech companies as a motivation
     BREXIT AND THE                            for Brexit-related moves with 117         see that approximately half (60) of       such as aircraft leasing. In total, there   for expanding in Dublin, the surge in
     DUBLIN MARKET                             announcements, approximately 40 to        these companies have taken space          are 986 fund managers with operations       growth is unlikely to be coincidental
                                               50% ahead of its nearest competitors      so far in Dublin meaning there is still   in Ireland (IMF, 2018) with the UK          when one considers that these
     It is well-accepted that Brexit           Luxembourg and Paris. Therefore,          a large number of companies left to       accounting for the largest share with       companies typically draw on talent from
     represents the greatest risk to Ireland   the fact that the Dublin office market    do so. The proliferation of coworking     368. While many of these are presently      across Europe for their operations.
     of any of the European Union member       is the biggest beneficiary of Brexit-     and serviced office providers in Dublin   back and middle office functions, it
     states due to the deep economic and       related announcements represents a        in the past number of years – lead        would make sense for asset managers
     political linkages between Ireland        significant exception to the potential    initially by Regus and Iconic Offices     that require a European platform to
     and the United Kingdom. With trade        negative economic impact that Brexit      and more recently by WeWork – offers      grow more front office activities out
     negotiations ongoing, Ireland will        will have on Ireland. For real estate     ideal occupier flexibility during an      of Dublin on the back of existing           ANALYSIS OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVES IN DUBLIN SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL
                                                                                                                                                                               PROJECTS OR ACTUAL RELOCATIONS. AS AT 1ST MARCH 2020.
     be hoping that divergence from the        investors looking to hedge their risk     uncertain time such as Brexit, with 25    operations that they already have
     current friction-free trade arrangement   to Brexit, it would suggest that Dublin   of the companies that have taken          located there. This is reflected in our
     will be minimised so as to lessen the     office assets represent a channel         space in Dublin choosing to do so in      research, with asset management                          Other                                     Banking/
     impact on the Irish economy. The          through which they can mitigate their     coworking and serviced office space.      firms accounting for the largest share                    22%                                      Finance
     exception to this negative exposure       Brexit risk.                              How trade discussions conclude will       of Brexit-related announcements with                                                               18%
     is the Dublin office market, with                                                   likely dictate the degree to which        27%, ahead of insurance and fintech
     Knight Frank’s research showing           Looking at the breakdown of               these companies expand in Dublin.         which have 17% and 16% respectively.
                                                                                                                                                                                      Asset                                                   Insurance
     that Dublin is the top location           announcements in more detail, we          All else being equal, the greater the
                                                                                                                                                                                 Management                                                   17%
                                                                                                                                   Outside observers need only look at
                                                                                                                                                                                       27%
                                                                                                                                   the flourishing tech scene in Dublin to
                                                                                                                                   realise the city’s potential in becoming
                                                                                                                                   a sectoral hub. Tech companies are                                               BREAKDOWN                           Fintech
                                                                                                                                   expanding at a phenomenal rate in                                                 BY ACTIVITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     PARIN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ACTIVITÉ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        16%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           %
                                                                                                                                   the city, cementing Dublin’s reputation
                                                                                                                                   as a global tech hub. The most recent
                                                                                                                                   example is LinkedIn, who recently
                                                                                                                                   agreed to pre-let 434,000 sq ft at
                                                                                                                                   their fast-growing city centre campus                               USA/Canada
                                                                                                                                   at Wilton Park. Upon completion,                                          44%
                                                                                                                                   LinkedIn’s footprint at this site will be
                                                                                                                                   in excess of 700,000 sq ft. Elsewhere,
                                                                                                                                   Salesforce pre-let 430,000 sq ft at                  United-
                                                                                                                                   RGRE’s Spencer Place which will                     Kingdom
                                                                                                                                   see the company treble its existing                     46%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Asia-
                                                                                                                                   footprint. Due to its positioning as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Pacific
                                                                                                                                   both a tech and financial hub, it is                                                                                6%
                                                                                                                                   unsurprising that the Fintech sector                                              BREAKDOWN
                                                                                                                                   in Dublin is rapidly growing. The                                                BY GEOGRAPHY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      PARIN %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ORIGINE                             Other
                                                                                                                                   latest and best example of this is                                                GÉOGRAPHIQUE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4%
                                                                                                                                   Mastercard’s taking of One and Two
                                                                                                                                                                                                             PAR ORIGINE GÉOGRAPHIQUE
                                                                                                                                   South County which will extend to
FOCUS ON...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               BREXIT
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24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25

                                                WHICH TYPES OF COMPANIES?                    comes on top of the movements of            15% of the total number of relocation                        ANALYSIS OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVEMENTS IN PARIS BY WORKFORCE SIZE CATEGORY SOURCE:
                                                                                                                                                                                                      KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL PROJECTS OR ACTUAL RELOCATIONS. AS AT 1ST MARCH 2020.
                                                                                             leading national banks and the arrival in   projects registered in the French capital
                                                Which companies have targeted                Paris of several companies previously       as a result of new announcements
                                                Paris to date as part of Brexit-related      established in the British capital but      (Ipagoo, etc.). Although the share of                                                                                                0-29 EMPLOYEES
                                                movements? Their profiles are                founded by French people, such              banks (33%) and asset management
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30-99 EMPLOYEES
                                                somewhat varied, although British (46%)      as Fintech Smart Lenders AM (see            companies (21%) is higher, the share of                                                                                              >100 EMPLOYEES
                                                and American (28%) companies account         interview on pages 17-18).                  Fintechs could continue to increase due
                                                for nearly three-quarters of them. The                                                   to the high growth potential and the
                                                remaining foreign arrivals mainly relate     Although banking activities and asset       authorities' proactive policy to promote
                                                to companies from Asia or the Middle         management companies still account          the French Tech ecosystem. Whilst the
                                                East. Finally, French companies account      for the majority of Brexit-related          United Kingdom has just announced
     BREXIT AND THE                             for 10% of all Brexit-related movements      movements in Paris, the increase in         the introduction of more restrictive                             19%
                                                in Paris. Among the most recent and          the share of Fintechs is one of the         legislation on immigration, some French
     PARIS MARKET
                                                most significant projects is the return      most striking developments of the last      officials emphasised in particular the
     CONFIRMED APPEAL                           of Total's treasury management to            twelve months. Poorly represented until     reception facilities offered to innovative
                                                the Greater Paris Region. This project       the end of 2018, they now account for       companies and their employees of
     One of the most significant trends                                                                                                  foreign origin. Further confirmation                                                                                              69%
     over the last twelve months is the                ANALYSIS OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVEMENTS IN PARIS BY WORKFORCE SIZE CATEGORY          that the search for talent is indeed the
     progression of Paris in the hierarchy            SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE AND POTENTIAL PROJECTS OR ACTUAL RELOCATIONS.       key to success in the new technologies
                                                                                   AS AT 1ST MARCH 2020.
     of cities attracting the largest number                                                                                             sector.
     of Brexit-related movements. Indeed,
     with 82 certain or potential projects                                                                                               JOB GAINS REMAIN MODEST
     identified since 2016, the French
                                                                    Asset
     capital remains far behind Dublin
                                                               Management                                                                Of the 82 Brexit-related movements
                                                                      19%                                       Fintech
     but is moving up to second place in                                                                                                 recorded since 2016 in the Greater                           The second reason is of a                        than 100 employees is 88%, while
                                                                                                                15%
     the rankings ahead of Luxembourg,                                                                                                   Paris Region, just over 60% have                             methodological nature and is due to              only about ten movements involve
     and is also widening the gap with                                                                                                   already taken place. The most                                the lack of transparency concerning              more than 100 employees. Brexit's
     Amsterdam and Frankfurt.                        Banking/                                                                            important of these concern Bank of                           the projects of certain companies,               impact on the office real estate market
                                                                                                                   Other                 America and the European Banking                             whose movements are not necessarily              is therefore reflected in an over-
                                                      Finance                                                      12%
     The influx of movements in favour                   45%                                                                             Authority (EBA) for a total of around                        announced before they actually set up            representation of leases for areas
     of the Greater Paris Region bears                                                                                                   500 employees. This volume                                   in France. For example, the regulators           of less than 1,000 sq m, including
     witness to the improved image of Paris                                                                                              represents a significant share of                            (AMF and APCR) are subject to                    a significant proportion of areas
     and confirms, more generally, that                                                                                  Insurance       Brexit-related recruitment, estimated                        confidentiality and are aware of                 of less than 500 sq m and several
     the efforts made to revive France's                                             BREAKDOWN
                                                                                      BY ACTIVITY
                                                                                                                         9%              at nearly 1,500 in the Greater Paris                         projects that they cannot make public1.          examples of installations in coworking
     appeal are paying off. In addition to                                               IN %                                            Region today. According to our latest                                                                         areas or by way of sub-leases. The
     the strengths traditionally promoted                                                                                                estimates, potential or pending                              Estimates of job gains have changed              consumption potential of medium-
     by the capital region (quality of                                                                                                   movements represent 1,800 to                                 little since 2016, whether for 3,500 or          sized offices, those between
     transport infrastructure, capacity for                                                                                              2,000 additional positions, i.e. a                           5,000 people. Their scale therefore              1,000 and 5,000 sq m, is rather
     innovation, market size, etc), a number                                           USA                                               high range of 3,500 positions for                            remains limited in relation to the               limited, while movements above
     of measures have been tailored to                                                 28%                                               all Brexit-related job gains. This                           economic weight of the Greater                   5,000 sq m can be counted on one
     attract Brexit "exiles". The relaxation                                                                                             figure remains below the target of                           Paris Region, where companies in                 hand. It should also be remembered,
                                                                                                                     Other
     of legislation, particularly in the area     United Kingdom                                                                         5,000 jobs recently communicated                             the banking sector alone account                 as we reported in our previous study,
                                                                                                                     10%
     of employment law, is a particularly                    46%                                                                         by Paris Europlace, but could be                             for more than 100,000 employees.                 that several of the projects likely to
     important indicator, as are the                                                                                                     revised upwards in the coming                                The vast majority of Brexit-related              create the greatest number of jobs
     reception facilities offered to families                                                                          France            months. Having established an initial                        projects involve a relatively small              are being undertaken by companies
     (international schools). Above all, the                                                                           10%               foothold in Paris, some companies                            number of employees, with 69% of                 already present in the Paris region,
     change in the tax and social security                                                                                               could consequently strengthen their                          the movements recorded involving                 with office space large enough to
     system for inpatriates is a strong                                              BREAKDOWN                             European      presence there.                                              no more than thirty employees. The               accommodate new employees.
     argument that has enabled France to                                            BY GEOGRAPHY                           Union                                                                      proportion of projects involving less
                                                                                         IN %
     make up for its lack of competitiveness                                                                               6%
     in relation to other European countries.                                                                                            1
                                                                                                                                             Choose Paris Region, Brexit-related relocation of activities in the Greater Paris Region, January 2020.
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                           UNDER PRESSURE #3

26                                                                                                                                                             27
     ALMOST EXCLUSIVE INTEREST                  particular, La Défense in the Hauts-          have always been the source of
     FOR THE CBD                                de-Seine department. In this business         the most expensive transactions,
                                                district, Brexit-related movements            accounting for nearly 40% of the total
     Taking all employee categories             are, with the obvious exception of            number of leases signed at rents in
     together, Brexit-related leases            the European Banking Authority,               excess of €750/sq m/year over the
     represent approximately                    essentially endogenous (Chubb, My             last twenty years in Paris.
     55,000 sq m of office space in the         Money Bank, Total).
     Greater Paris Region, slightly less than
     half of which has already been taken       The next few months will determine
     up. Unsurprisingly, Paris concentrates     whether La Défense has been able
     the largest share of these volumes         to attract new companies thanks to
     leased, with a particular focus on the     the influx of high-quality office space
     central business district. Among the       on the market and the increasingly
     most recent movements, Cooper Gay          limited and expensive supply of
     has leased 500 sq m at 71-73 Avenue        office space in inner Paris. The CBD
     des Champs-Élysées with the aim of         is nevertheless likely to remain the
     expanding its presence in Europe.          almost exclusive target of Brexit-
     The National Australia Bank, one of        related movements in the Paris
     Australia's largest banks, also intends    region: consulting and international
     to locate in Paris and should logically    finance companies are traditionally
     choose the CBD for its European hub.       drawn to an address in the capital's
                                                most beautiful districts and are
     More importantly, JP Morgan has            therefore less reluctant to pay high
     announced the acquisition of a             rents there. Moreover, these sectors
     6,600 sq m building near Place
     Vendôme, which would be the second
                                                BREAKDOWN OF BREXIT-RELATED MOVEMENTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL SECTOR IN THE GREATER PARIS
     largest Brexit-related transaction
                                                REGION. SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK, DEFINITE PROJECTS AND ACTIVE SEARCHES IDENTIFIED BMID-2016
     in Paris since 2016, after Bank of         AND 1ST MARCH 2020.
     America's lease for almost 10,000 sq
     m at 49-51 rue La Boétie. Favouring
     the most upmarket market sectors,
                                                                          2%                                             OTHER

                                                                                                                         LA DÉFENSE
     these movements alone do not explain
     the increase in prime Paris Market                            7%                                                    PARIS EXCL. CBD
                                                                                                                         PARIS CBD
     Rents, which is the result of a more
     general dynamism in user demand in                8%
     various sectors (consulting, coworking,
     new technologies, luxury, etc). They
     do, however, add to the tension in
     a market that already has a severe
     shortage of office space, with barely
     92,500 sq m available at the end of
     2019 (i.e. a vacancy rate of 1.4%).

     Markets outside the CBD account for
     only 16% of Brexit-related movements                                                                            83%
     in the Greater Paris Region. The
     profile of companies is generally
     more varied, with a mix of lawyers,
     insurers, major industrial groups and
     Fintechs. They have targeted a few
     Parisian districts in the West and on
     the Left Bank and Neuilly and, in
BREXIT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         UNDER PRESSURE #3

                                                                                                                                           What are the most common                         These factors are reflected in recent
                                                                                                                                           questions foreign companies ask                  key world rankings. It is the most
28                                                                                                                                         about setting up in the Greater                  attractive European conurbation                                  29
                                                                                                                                           Paris Region?                                    (37% of decision-makers consider

                                                      INTERVIEW                                                                            The main issue is market and customer
                                                                                                                                                                                            Paris Region to be the most attractive
                                                                                                                                                                                            European conurbation, compared

                                                      CHOOSE                                                                               access more than tax or labour cost
                                                                                                                                           issues. Depending on the sector, there
                                                                                                                                                                                            with 34% for London). The number of
                                                                                                                                                                                            projects is increasing in key functions:

                                                      PARIS REGION                                                                         are also sometimes questions related to
                                                                                                                                           administrative procedures or regulatory
                                                                                                                                           and legal conditions, the main steps in
                                                                                                                                                                                            decision-making centres (+2%), R&D
                                                                                                                                                                                            centres (+32%) and production centres
                                                                                                                                                                                            (+63%), illustrating the real confidence
                                                      Lionel Grotto                                                                        setting up a business, available funding         of foreign investors in the region's
                                                      CEO                                                                                  and possible state or regional aid. But          research and industrial potential. In
                                                                                                                                           the questions relate more and more               2018, it was also the 2nd most attractive
                                                                                                                                           to the quality of life. Companies are            region in the world according to KPMG
     What is the role of "Choose                      Paris-Greater Paris Region Chamber         and 33% of jobs). China, Japan and        seeking to associate their brand with            (Global Cities Investment Monitor)
     Paris Region"? Have you set up                   of Commerce and Industry, to work          Singapore together account for 13%        a region and premises that speak                 and the leading location for attracting
     any special assistance for Brexit-               together to simplify the welcoming of      of the projects and 14% of jobs and       positively of their brand because the            international R&D centres. Between
     related projects?                                companies and their employees.             complete the top 5 countries list.        issue of talent recruitment has become           2015 and 2018, the Greater Paris
                                                                                                 30% of decisions affected an English      key. For example, one company in the             Region moved from 6th to 1st place
     The Choose Paris Region agency is a              This one-stop service has notably          subsidiary located in London. 45% of      tech sector wanted to be able to discuss         among the world's conurbations in
     one-stop service for foreign companies           enabled the successful relocation of       the projects are SMBs/MSBs, 40% are       its R&D centre project with other players        terms of the number of foreign direct
     and investors who want to develop in             the European Banking Authority (EBA)       large groups, and 15% are start-ups.      in the Greater Paris Region who had              investment projects. Today, the Greater
     the Greater Paris Region. The aim is to          to the Greater Paris Region, effective                                               recruited at least 100 data scientists           Paris Region is once again ranked by
     provide tailored support for each type           since June 2019. On the strength of this   Of all the projects monitored by          and engineers in the field of artificial         fDi Intelligence as the leading European
     of project, but with the broader aim of          successful accompaniment, Choose           Choose Paris Region, several reasons      intelligence, in order to gain a true            Region of the future in 2020/21.
     increasing France and the Greater Paris          Paris Region has expanded its services     have been identified. 62 companies        insight into the difficulty of recruiting this
     Region’s appeal: within this framework,          and now offers the HR departments          applied for a financial passport          type of staff in such large numbers.             We do, however, have competitors,
     we support certain key projects, such            of the groups we support a range           as the regulatory issue was key for                                                        and these vary by sector. In addition
     as the development of international              of services to promote international       them (the AMF granted 42 company          For industrial projects, the issue is the        to London, they are Dublin, Frankfurt,
     education.                                       mobility, which has become essential       authorisations in 2019). Other            availability of land or buildings ready          Madrid, Amsterdam and Zurich for
                                                      for boosting the Greater Paris             companies expressed fears about visa      within a short time frame. We are in the         finance. Berlin and Düsseldorf are also
      Choose Paris Region is a team of 75             Region's appeal to foreign talent          procedures and the free movement of       process of putting together an offer             dynamic, particularly in the tech sector,
     people who have been present for 13              (researchers and employees).               their employees: this mainly concerns     with the support of the Greater Paris            and benefit from an extremely positive
     years in Paris, Beijing, Shanghai, San                                                      companies with very international         Region, the State, private partners,             image amongst investors. Several
     Francisco, Boston and New York. We               Since its creation, what types of          teams. For others, the fact that one of   energy and rail network operators,               Eastern European countries, particularly
     support more than 1,250 investment               players have been supported?               the directors is of French origin may     and the region's major industrial areas.         Poland, Serbia and Hungary, as well as
     projects in the Greater Paris Region                                                        have played a role. Some companies        We are preparing to re-establish the             Germany and Spain, are competitors
     every year. In order to project a                We are aware of 283 Brexit-related         expressed fears about rising customs      Greater Paris Region's specialisation            for industrial projects. It should also be
     coherent image and to be more                    office and industrial set-up,              duties or logistics costs, while others   in industrial set-up that has been               stressed that competition is not only with
     effective, it is essential that all players in   investment and team relocation             wanted to continue to benefit from        somewhat lost over the years.                    European conurbations. It is also found
     the region work together. We therefore           projects since the 2016 referendum,        European subsidies.                                                                        at a global level, especially in R&D and
     coordinate private and public                    accounting for 10,193 jobs. The Greater                                              What are the main strengths of                   production functions, which reinforces
     economic players so that they speak              Paris Region has been the target of        With regard to industry, several          the Paris financial centre? Who                  the need to strengthen cooperation
     with one voice on an international               136 projects representing 5,484 jobs,      announcements confirmed plant             are its European competitors                     to develop Europe's appeal, whilst
     level, and collectively offer services           even if the relocation of these jobs       closures, postponements of                and why?                                         simultaneously competing with these
     that meet the needs of investors. The            has not necessarily taken place yet.       openings, or the cancellation of new                                                       other European cities.
     agency now forms a genuine one-stop                                                         production lines. The Society of Motor    Along with London, the Greater Paris
     service that has taken over from the one         The main sectors involved are finance      Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT),         Region is the only place that is a
     created shortly after the announcement           (53% of projects and 63% of jobs) and      for example, announced in a July 2019     global capital, and no other European
     of Brexit. It is the result of a common          services (15% of projects and 17% of       memo that 20% of companies in the         conurbation has the same global appeal.
     desire on the part of the State, through         jobs). The main countries of origin of     automotive sector have lost markets       For example, it is by far the region
     Business France, the Greater Paris               the projects are the United Kingdom        due to Brexit. 12.4% have transferred     that receives the most foreign direct
     Region, the Greater Paris Metropolitan           (43% of projects and 22% of jobs) and      their operations abroad and 12.4%         investment from the United Kingdom.
     Area, the City of Paris, Paris&co and the        the United States (19% of projects         have reduced their workforce.
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