2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook - November-March
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2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook November-March
Winter Forecast Summary
GEND
Detailed 2022-23 Winter Forecast
Costliest Winter Hazards
Preliminary Spring 2023 Forecast
Utility Forecast Implications
Airport Forecast Implications
Transportation Forecast Implications
Winter Forecast Summary
Winter Forecast
Summary We expect a cooler trend across the central and eastern United States,
with increased early-season cold risks for December. It could be the
Detailed 2022-23
coldest start to winter in the last decade — when the world is already
Winter Forecast dealing with reduced natural gas supplies.
Costliest Winter In addition to below-normal temperatures, the central part of the
Hazards country could see enhanced snowfalls; a late end to the winter season is
also likely. In the Southwest, there will be warm and dry conditions with
Preliminary Spring no drought relief. Near the East Coast, more seasonable temperatures
2023 Forecast and few coastal storms are expected, with the potential for above-
normal temperatures in late winter.
Utility Forecast
Implications The northern part of the nation — including the Rocky Mountain,
Midwest, and Great Lakes regions — should have above-normal
Airport Forecast snowfalls and brief, intense cold spells throughout the season, driven by
Implications the La Niña. The pattern could even push brief-but-intense cold snaps
down into the South.
Transportation
Forecast Implications
3
1 Detailed Winter 2022-23 Forecast
Winter Forecast
Summary
Previously, there's been a significant trend for U.S. winters to start on the warmer side. That is especially true for
Detailed 2022-23 the southern and eastern parts of the country, where the 10-year average temperature has been 2-4 degrees
Winter Forecast Fahrenheit above normal. The last time December showed much cooler air was in 2017, mainly in the Northeast.
However, this December brings an increased chance for early-season cold, particularly in the central and eastern
Costliest Winter parts of the nation, and it could be the coldest start to the season in the last decade.
Hazards
Preliminary Spring
1
2023 Forecast
• Cold peaks later in winter
Utility Forecast
Implications
• Brief intense cold possible
• Abundant rain/snow for
2 • Enhanced snowfall
the Rockies • Early-season cold outbreaks
Airport Forecast • Winter may linger into
Implications early spring
Transportation 3 • Colder, early winter than
Forecast Implications
4 • Warmth favored in
early winter
recent years
• Warmer back-half of winter
• Generally drier • Reduced coastal storm
than normal
• Worsening drought
5 • Greater temperature swings
conditions • Brief, intense cold shots
6
• Wintry precipitation events
• Early winter chill expected
• Milder in late winter
• Generally drier than normal
Click to view our complete
seasonal infographic
5
Winter Forecast
Summary As in 2021, December temperatures In terms of precipitation, the northern The La Niña has come close to peaking
will make or break the season's trends. United States should see above-normal this fall — and it should hold its current
Detailed 2022-23 There is a low probability the month snowfall this winter. The greatest strength, likely into December. From
Winter Forecast could be warmer than expected, which chances will be across the Northern there, the event should steadily
could set up a warmer winter overall, Rockies and the Midwest through the weaken, especially later in the winter,
Costliest Winter as with last year. Currently, across Great Lakes. Compared to recent with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Hazards
much of the country, the forecast years, lake-effect snowfalls will or ENSO-neutral climate pattern
models predict an increased chance of also increase — if the cold comes in returning sometime next spring,
Preliminary Spring cold for December. Even if the month early December. potentially making this the last in the
2023 Forecast
is cold, we don't expect this January to current series of La Niña events.
be as chilly as the last, but quite a bit is We expect below-normal precipitation
Utility Forecast
riding on what happens this December. in the Southwest, across Texas, and
Implications
into the Southeast. Despite this
In general, the climate models show pattern, there is a risk for wintry
Airport Forecast above-normal temperatures with a precipitation in the South once again.
Implications
fair amount of cold looming nearby There is a reduced risk for East Coast
across portions of Canada, which could storms, but there is always the
Transportation
drop south into the United States. possibility of an impactful rogue
Forecast Implications
After a chilly start, the eastern part storm or two.
of the nation could see mainly above-
normal temperatures and the central
and northwestern regions below-
normal temperatures, as seen this past
February. That is a familiar trend over
the last few La Niña years.
6
Winter Forecast
Summary
Winter Temperatures U.S. winter temperature outlook
Let's look at this winter's expected temperatures
Detailed 2022-23 in greater detail; overall, the cold risks marginally
Winter Forecast
outweigh the warm risks. The La Niña and polar
vortex behaviors will be pivotal. In the short-term,
Costliest Winter significant cold will heavily influence the rest of the
Hazards
winter's temperatures, much as it did in Texas during
February 2021. If cold does not emerge in December,
Preliminary Spring
a warmer scenario will become more likely, and we
2023 Forecast
could see the warmest winter in nearly 10 years. November 2022 December 2022
Utility Forecast
Given that caveat, with colder-than-normal
Implications
temperatures forecast for December, it gives us
a high potential to see a cold weather pattern
Airport Forecast
throughout the winter — likely making it our coldest
Implications
since 2010. As previously mentioned, we expect cold
to be most prevalent in the central and eastern parts
Transportation
of the country. A break in the pattern could come in
Forecast Implications
January, when conditions may start to trend warmer.
By February, the cold will likely return to those same January 2023 February 2023
regions — and linger into March, potentially delaying
the start of spring. The delay largely depends on
what kind of snowpack exists, which could help
prolong the colder temperatures.
The East Coast looks like it will be warmer than
normal in February and March, despite a cold start
to the winter. The northern part of the country
should be colder-than-normal through February; at
March 2023
the same time, it will be warmer than normal in the
Southwest.
7
Winter Forecast
Summary
Winter Precipitation U.S. winter precipitation outlook
Forecast
Detailed 2022-23
Winter Forecast Much of the United States will be drier than average
— particularly portions of the South and West.
Costliest Winter However, there are enhanced risks for more wintry
Hazards weather than in 2021 across the northern tier. The
highest potential for wetter-than-normal conditions
Preliminary Spring is in the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes. The
2023 Forecast
Northwest could see wetter than normal conditions,
November 2022 December 2022
though there will be some variability with both
Utility Forecast wetter and drier months; overall, the season should
Implications
be wetter than average.
Airport Forecast The West Coast, Gulf Coast, and Southeast can
Implications
expect drier-than-average conditions. Unfortunately,
this winter doesn't look to help resolve the drought
Transportation faced by much of the country — particularly in these
Forecast Implications
regions where it's likely to worsen throughout the
season. January 2023 February 2023
While the snowfall forecast is higher in the northern
region, at times this winter, it could sneak south into
Oklahoma, Texas, and the Tennessee Valley. Snowfall
events across the south can be tricky, as it often is
dominated by one sizeable event, which can sway the
overall snowfall average for the entire season. While
the confidence level is low, there is an enhanced risk
for one or two significant snow or ice events.
March 2023
8
3 Costliest Winter Hazards
Costliest Winter Hazards
Winter Forecast
Summary The frequency of billion-dollar weather in the form of a derecho — a rarer type of
disasters continues to grow, and we windstorm, widespread and long-lasting, that
Detailed 2022-23 now experience about one event every is often associated with fast-moving rain cells
Winter Forecast 18 days. Last winter saw two different or thunderstorms. This event broke a 70-year-
billion-dollar disasters at the beginning old record for the most tornadoes in Iowa,
Costliest Winter of the season in December, but neither with the most EF-2 or stronger tornadoes
Hazards
event was snow, ice, or cold related. in a single day. It also set a record high for
There was a major tornado outbreak December temperatures in Iowa, with several
Preliminary Spring
in the central part of the country on cities recording 75 degrees Fahrenheit.
2023 Forecast
December 10, quickly followed by more
severe storms and a Midwest derecho Typically, billion-dollar winter weather
Utility Forecast
just five days later. events happen in the eastern half of the
Implications
United States, with population density and
Airport Forecast 18 days related infrastructure being key factors.
When looking specifically at the frequency
Implications The average amount of time of blizzards, they are most frequent in
currently between billion-dollar the Northern and Central Plains, as these
Transportation weather disasters. regions typically see more frequent snow
Forecast Implications
and stronger winds. Nor’easters also bring
One of the worst on record, the a high frequency of blizzards to Maine and
December 10, 2021, tornado outbreak Massachusetts.
killed 87 people and injured dozens
more across nine states in the Midwest, Lasting, freezing rain events are also
Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. An prevalent in winter but present differently
uncommonly large event, it was even more in different regions. For example, the
unusual that it occurred in December. In Northeast has the highest annual freezing-
fact, over the last 200 years, there have rain hours and some of the highest frequency
only been 17 tornadoes recorded during of freezing-rain events. New England also
December in Middle Tennessee. has a high percentage of long-duration
(more than six hours) freezing rain events,
Not even a week later, another billion- but Oklahoma has the most 18-plus-hour
dollar December weather event occurred freezing rain events.
104 Preliminary Spring 2023 Forecast
Winter Forecast
Preliminary Spring 2023 Forecast
Summary
Over the last decade, winter has Southwest through the south-central
Detailed 2022-23 lingered into spring in the north- United States in March and April. In the
Winter Forecast central United States. With the current East, wetter conditions are possible in
forecast's increased risks for below‐ May. The La Niña's fade may impact
Costliest Winter normal March and especially April the jet stream and severe weather
Hazards temperatures in the region and the potential this coming spring. A fast fade
Northwest, the trend is likely to persist. could lead to reduced risks. However,
Preliminary Spring A warmer-than-normal May will follow severe weather risks could rise if the La
2023 Forecast for most of the country. The Southwest Niña holds on longer than anticipated.
and Southern Plains could see warm
Utility Forecast anomalies — and the Southeast as well, Across most of the Rockies and Plains,
Implications though there, it will likely be balanced by spring 2023 appears winder than
an early-season chill. average, but across California and
Airport Forecast the East Coast, there could be less
Implications Across the country, the month of March wind than usual. In the Plains, this
tends to trend cooler, but spring 2023 could boost wind generation totals
Transportation could differ as we expect the La Niña to above‐average levels. In fact, the
Forecast Implications will turn ENSO-neutral. This may make region's southern half currently appears
for an earlier turn to warmer conditions, windier than average each month,
and if that occurs, a warm scenario from February through June. Solar
can't be ruled out. generation will be above normal across
the Southwest into the south-central
Above-normal precipitation will impact part of the country in spring. Clouds
the Gulf Coast through the Great will be stingy in the northern areas, but
Lakes in March and the Upper Midwest there, increased solar generation isn't
in April. This could mean late-season expected until later in the spring.
snows across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes regions. Below-
normal rainfall will expand across the
125 Forecast Implications
Utility Forecast
Winter Forecast
Summary Implications
Detailed 2022-23
Extreme cold and winter weather-
Winter Forecast related outages are some of the most
difficult — and dangerous — to resolve.
Costliest Winter This winter’s potential for some of the
Hazards coldest December temperatures in
the last 10 years could lead to above-
Preliminary Spring average disruptions, making resource
2023 Forecast planning a key focus.
Utility Forecast The significant arctic air we could
Implications experience early in the season is related
to overall climate change trends,
Airport Forecast especially in the southern part of the
Implications United States, where businesses and
households are often unprepared for
Transportation cold, snowy, or icy conditions. To help,
Forecast Implications keep an eye on the forecast two to
four weeks out, allowing you to better
identify and prepare for expected
brief but intense cold snaps. Advance
notice allows you more time to focus
on winterization efforts and educate
customers on intelligent electricity or
natural gas use, helping lower demand
curves as much as possible.
Safety is a top concern for both
homeowners and utility crews. For
homeowners, finding relief from
bitter cold temperatures indoors can
be difficult. Whereas in the summer,
people can head to pools or beaches or
14use fans, there’s not a similar solution crews are likely to encounter during the
in the winter. New research has colder months, wintry roads are perhaps Our WeatherSentry® solution includes
Winter Forecast found carbon monoxide poisoning is a the most dangerous. Snow and ice don’t several tools that tailor weather risk
Summary dangerous consequence of outages as only make reaching access points more information to specific events to
people look for alternative options to difficult; they contribute to nearly 40% improve your preparation and response,
Detailed 2022-23 warm homes with items like grills and of all weather-related traffic accidents. including the new Storm Risk Analytics.
Winter Forecast It uses machine learning to provide a set
propane heaters. An outage prediction These accidents can have deadly
solution can help you understand consequences; according to the U.S. of quantitative predictions that support
Costliest Winter potential risks related to wet snow Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2019, 39% a better-prepared response to potential
Hazards
events, ice accretion, or extreme wind. of occupational fatalities were traffic outages. The system uses regionally
An outage prediction solution based related. trained outage prediction models that
Preliminary Spring
on weather intelligence can improve include historic electric customers-out
2023 Forecast
your understanding of potential risks, Finally, winterizing electricity generator data, updated every six hours.
allowing you to prepare and mobilize assets is a priority. More and more
Utility Forecast
crews in advance, minimizing and utilities are committing considerable With it, you can track multiple events
Implications
shortening outages to keep customers time and effort to this, particularly up to seven days out. It also includes
safer and happier. after Texas's February 2021 cold event. hourly electric customers-out forecasts,
Airport Forecast maps, tables, and trends. Together,
Winterizing assets, like exposed pipes
Implications
For utility work crews, the safety issues transporting water and steam at power these insights provide clear guidance
are a bit different. Understanding generation plants with heat tracing on the incident command escalation
Transportation
the severity of the cold allows for and insulation — before extreme cold level needed for individual operations
Forecast Implications
precautions during outdoor restoration hits — is critical to keeping the power on. centers and aids decision-making ahead
work, including providing proper Enhancing your awareness of potential of an event for crew and materials
outerwear and adapting work hours — risks early in the season allows for better reallocation or sourcing strategies.
when possible — to avoid the potential mitigation and preparation decisions,
for frostbite. But of all the hazards ensuring safety and business continuity.
Explore our storm risk solutions today to see how we can
support your unique operations.
15Coldest December in Texas: 1989
Winter Forecast
While the cold snap of February 2021 seeing record lows and sub-freezing today. Between crop losses and other
Summary
is top-of-mind for many in terms temperatures. It caused considerable damages, the losses were at nearly
of damage, Texas has also seen damage to citrus crops, and Dallas $500 million in southeast and coastal
Detailed 2022-23
devastating cold in previous Decembers, experienced more than $25 million Texas. The winter freeze greatly strained
Winter Forecast
most notably in 1989. That year, frigid in damage from frozen water pipes, the ability of the state’s electric utilities
arctic air infiltrated many portions resulting in significant business losses to provide reliable power to customers.
Costliest Winter
Hazards of the United States, including Texas, from the plumbing failures. Houston While demand increased, weather-
beginning around mid-month, and also recorded its coldest December on related equipment malfunctions caused
Preliminary Spring
lasting until Christmas. This outbreak record back to the 1880s, with six of the generating units to trip offline.
2023 Forecast was historic, with many Texas cities record-low temperatures still standing
Utility Forecast
Implications
Airport Forecast
Implications
Transportation
Forecast Implications
16Airport Forecast Implications
Winter Forecast
Summary As with utilities, resource planning is Because we expect significant cold
vital for airport operations in extreme weather for the end of the year, airports
Detailed 2022-23 cold. With the airline industry expecting nationwide need to stay aware of
Winter Forecast a strong holiday season to surpass 2019 potential extreme temperatures. A
levels, you must prepare. Canceled flights, crucial component to protecting people
Costliest Winter extreme weather, and pilot shortages and assets is having a plan ready and
Hazards
filled the summer, but the cold weather knowing when to put it in motion. Keep
will bring more challenges, particularly a close eye on the forecast to help
Preliminary Spring
around resource allocation. While your minimize your potential safety and
2023 Forecast
preparations are likely already in motion, resource allocation risk in December
managing budgets and access to deicing and beyond.
Utility Forecast
solutions and winter equipment will be a
Implications
priority. Securing extra crews and on-call
contractors for snow clearing and deicing
Airport Forecast efforts will be critical in December.
Implications
Transportation
Your airport's location has a significant See how we can
impact on winter planning activities. If
help you protect
Forecast Implications
your winters are typically cold and dry,
like in the southern half of the country,
your primary concern is probably not passengers and
snow removal. However, given this
season's forecast, you should consider equipment and
your enhanced frost, deicing, and cold
exposure risks. If you're in the northern ensure smoother
half of the United States, prepare
for this season's more variable snow ramp operations.
events. For all operations, proper, timely
assessments of approaching weather
events will allow your team to take
appropriate action to support ramp
and airport safety and efficiencies.
17A Case Study in Winter Operations
Winter Forecast
Gerald R. Ford International Airport Starting in late fall, the team monitors — including investments in new
Summary
in Grand Rapids, Michigan, deals with Lake Michigan’s water temperatures equipment, adjusting staffing levels,
particularly extreme winter weather. through the winter months, as the and offering further staff training.
Detailed 2022-23
With Lake Michigan just 50 miles away, temperature impacts each snow By monitoring past events and
Winter Forecast
the airport often experiences a wide and ice storm differently. The crew modifying practices for future events,
range of extreme conditions, including includes nearly 30 full-time and the airport’s operations team has
Costliest Winter
Hazards lake-effect snow, cold temperatures, seasonal team members who also reduced the time spent clearing a
and ice. Proper resource planning monitor current forecasts and review runway by more than 30% through new
Preliminary Spring
and allocation help the airport’s the previous season’s snow events to equipment and staff training.
2023 Forecast operations team effectively mitigate identify opportunities for improvement
potential risks.
Utility Forecast
Implications
Airport Forecast
Implications
Transportation
Forecast Implications
18Winter Forecast
Summary
Transportation Forecast Implications
For transportation, weather impacts Icy road conditions can happen quickly,
Detailed 2022-23
Winter Forecast
and mitigation change more drastically impacting specific stretches of roads
in winter than in most industries, but not others — especially in the
Costliest Winter
and the current forecast has several early-season cold. Monitoring subsoil Take a closer
Hazards transportation-specific implications. temperatures across roadways with
Safety is top of mind for crews clearing accurate weather insights can help you look at our
Preliminary Spring roads or those traveling the roadways to best prepare for icy conditions. Often
2023 Forecast deliver goods; for both groups, accurate in December, subsurface temperatures solutions with
weather forecasts and real-time insights will keep pavement temperatures warm.
Utility Forecast are critical to ensuring safe, efficient With an early-season snow event, the air a personalized
Implications operations. and surface temperatures may be cold,
but a warming effect from subsurface trial. Request
Airport Forecast
Keeping roads safe during early- pavement temperatures can lead to icy
Implications season cold events is a challenge for pavement. Using hyperlocal weather one today.
transportation agencies — and is forecasts to drive decision-making gives
Transportation even more challenging when juggling you more time to prepare your team
Forecast Implications resource management, such as salt and resources.
supplies or staffing. Across the country,
staffing shortages are plaguing many Our trusted solutions support more
transportation departments, and from effective processes with best-in-
Maine to Missouri, driver staff is down class weather forecasts and expert
30%. The expected early cold creates recommendations. Specifically, our
added pressure to fill open driver WeatherSentry solution can help
positions fast. Salt supplies are vital, your team create a plan ahead of
as most agencies typically order their approaching cold, snow, or ice. These
supplies well before the season, so it's accurate insights can help with resource
critical to best manage and allocate allocation, route management, and
that valuable resource by monitoring other operational decisions, improving
weather forecasts. overall safety and mobility.
19Minnesota’s December Weather Whiplash
Winter Forecast
In terms of weather events, in Soon after the mid-December freezing across the state, changing
Summary
December 2021, Minnesota had it all. snowstorm, warm temperatures melted rain to a wintry mix of freezing drizzle
Parts of the state experienced upwards the snowpack, leading to widespread, and snow. Snow accumulations of 1-4
Detailed 2022-23
of 20 inches of snow mid-month. Then, dense fog. Strong gradient winds and inches and strong wind gusts led to low
Winter Forecast
just five days later, severe storms hit, gusts exceeding 50 miles per hour visibility and travel hazards. Over 1,100
followed by icy roads a few hours later. developed, and the state experienced its automobile crashes resulted, killing
Costliest Winter
Hazards This weather whiplash was especially first-ever December tornado. After the one person and injuring 27 more. Such
challenging for transportation crews. burst of warm air and severe weather, events highlight the importance of
Preliminary Spring
temperatures quickly dropped below resource planning.
2023 Forecast
Utility Forecast
Implications
Airport Forecast
Implications
Transportation
Forecast Implications
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