2021 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook - Materials will be available at: www.eesi.org/031221factbook Tweet about the briefing: #eesitalk ...
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Materials will be available at: www.eesi.org/031221factbook Tweet about the briefing: #eesitalk @eesionline 2021 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook
...About EESI HILL BRIEFINGS CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS SOCIAL MEDIA (@EESIONLINE) FACT SHEETS
Derek Sutherland Steve Anglin Timothy Held CT Fusion WeSolar CSP Echogen Power Systems Seattle, WA Princeton, NJ Akron, OH Gina Wolf Karl Jantze Enel Green Power HySonic https://www.cebn.org/ Lenexa, KS | Andover, MA West Lafayette, IN faces-behind-the-facts/
U.S. 2020 energy productivity rose, but Americans suffered U.S. GDP and primary energy consumption U.S. energy productivity $ trillion of GDP / quadrillion BTU of energy Indexed to 1990 levels 0.22 2.2 0.20 2.0 GDP (indexed) Energy productivity 0.18 1.8 0.16 1.6 0.14 1.4 Primary energy consumption (indexed) 0.12 1.2 0.10 1.0 0.08 0.8 1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, EIA, BloombergNEF Notes: Values for 2019 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through September 2020). 2020 GDP estimate is a projection from economists compiled at ECFC on the Bloomberg Terminal. 7 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Fossil fuel use dropped very sharply, electricity demand also fell but by less U.S. primary energy consumption, by fuel type U.S. electricity demand Quadrillion BTU TWh of demand Growth rate 6% 105 4,000 Renewables 4% (including hydro) 90 Natural gas 3,000 2% 75 60 0% Nuclear 2,000 45 -2% Petroleum 30 1,000 -4% 15 Coal 0 0 -6% 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 Demand Annual growth rate CAGR since 1990 Source: EIA, BloombergNEF Notes: “CAGR” on the right hand side graph is compound annual growth rate. Values for 2020 are pr ojected, accounting for seasonality, based on the latest monthly values from EIA (data available through September 2020). BTU stands for British thermal units. 8 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Lower-carbon sources now predominate in U.S. power U.S. electricity generation, by fuel type 10% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 15% 17% 17% 17% 20% Renewables (including hydro) 24% 25% 28% 31% 28% 33% 34% 32% 35% Natural gas 39% 41% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20% Nuclear 20% 20% 19% 20% 20% 45% 42% Coal 37% 39% 39% 33% 30% 30% 28% 23% 19% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: EIA, BloombergNEF Note: Values for 2020 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through Oc tober 2020) 9 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Renewables had a blockbuster year, despite challenges U.S. new renewable energy capacity build (GW) 33.8 GW Hydro 16.5 22.9 21.0 Geothermal 18.4 19.0 18.2 16.4 Biomass / Waste 3.5 14.1 11.5 12.7 10.9 10.2 Solar 7.4 9.6 8.9 2.2 6.7 17.1 Wind 6.0 14.0 0.9 9.3 5.7 8.5 8.3 7.5 7.7 6.9 4.8 5.1 1.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e Source: BloombergNEF, EIA Notes: All values are shown in AC except solar, which is included as DC capacity. Numbers include utility-scale (>1MW) projects of all types, rooftop solar, and small- and medium-sized wind. Includes installations or planned installations reported to the EIA through October 2020, as well as BloombergNEF projections . 10 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Substantial additional gas-fired power plants are due online… Combined cycle build Open cycle build GW SPP GW 20 Southwest 20 18 Southeast 18 16 PJM 16 14 Northwest 14 12 New York 12 10 10 New England 8 8 MISO 6 6 Florida 4 4 ERCOT 2 2 California 0 0 Alaska 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: EIA, BNEF 11 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
… and some will be paired with hydrogen Announced capacity of H2-ready projects, by U.S. projects’ H2 blending targets country Capacity (GW) U.K. (1.2GW) NextEra, FL Some H2 expected Netherlands (1.3GW) 8.9 U.S. (6.4GW) 8.0 8.0 Long Ridge, OH 20% 100% 6.8 6.0 LADWP, CA 30% 100% Danskammer, NY 30% 100% 2.7 Balico, VA 0.5 0.5 EmberClear, OH 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 No state mandate State mandate Expected H2 blend Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Left chart reflects announced and financed commercial projects. On right chart, Dashed = No annou nced hydrogen blend timeline. LADWP = Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. Bars begin at expected commercial operation date. 30-year asset lifetime assumed. State mandate means there is a state-level clean energy target. 12 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Power emissions are down, at least for now U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by sector Power emissions goals MMtCO2e MMtCO2e 2,500 2,500 Power 2,000 2,000 Transportation 1,500 1,500 Industrial 1,000 1,000 Buildings Agriculture 500 500 0 0 1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: BloombergNEF, EIA, EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2016 Notes: “Sinks” refer to forests and green areas which absorb carbon dioxide. Values for 2020 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on monthly values from EIA available through September 2020 and BNEF pr ojections. 13 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Power emissions are down, at least for now U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by sector Power emissions goals MMtCO2e MMtCO2e 2,500 2,500 Pathway for Clean Power Plan Power 2,000 2,000 Transportation 1,500 1,500 Industrial 1,000 1,000 Buildings Pathway for Biden proposed target Agriculture 500 500 0 0 1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: BloombergNEF, EIA, EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2016 Notes: “Sinks” refer to forests and green areas which absorb carbon dioxide. Values for 2020 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on monthly values from EIA available through September 2020 and BNEF pr ojections. 14 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
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Charles Hernick Vice President of Policy and Advocacy Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
Governments globally included de- carbonization in stimulus packages Global Covid-19 stimulus approved as of New U.S. green stimulus January 2021 $ billion $ billion ARPA-E 40 35 15.31 Nuclear Approved 939 30 green stimulus CCUS 25 Energy 20 3.83 efficiency 15.03 15 Energy Approved storage stimulus for 1,041 10 CO2-intensive Hydro industries 5 Wind 0 0 400 800 1,200 Enhanced tax Considered Potential RD&D Asia Oceania EU credits approved RD&D funding Solar Other Europe MENA North America funding Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Governments, media reports, BloombergNEF Note: ‘Approved green stimulus’ includes support to CO2-intensive sectors and companies with green conditions. Enhanced tax credit funding levels are based on U.S. Congress Joint Committee on Taxation estimate of new spending for those functions during 2021-30 fiscal years. Excludes extension of excise tax credits relating to alternative fuels because this includes support for fossil fuels and green fuels. 18 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
In the U.S., this meant RD&D and tax credits Energy RD&D spending in U.S. stimulus bill U.S. energy tax credit enhancements, 2021-2030 ($millions) ($millions) Fusion Solar Investment Tax Credit ARPA-E Residential energy- $800 $124 efficiency/biomass Carbon capture $362 $276 fuel $625 demonstration $395 Onshore wind $910 $641 Production Tax Advanced reactor Credit $933 technology $700 17D commercial $4,700 Solar buildings efficiency $1,000 45Q carbon Energy storage $19.1 $1,695 $15.0 $7,020 capture use and $1,000 storage billion Large-scale carbon billion Homeowners $1,500 $2,930 capture pilots energy efficiency Waterpower $3,814 ITC for offshore $2,140 wind $2,600 Carbon capture demonstration Construction of Carbon storage energy efficient validation new homes Waste energy Wind recovery credit Sources: BloombergNEF, U.S. Congress Joint Committee on Taxation 19 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Ben Evans Vice President, Public Affairs Alliance to Save Energy
U.S. 2020 energy productivity rose, but Americans suffered U.S. energy productivity U.S. GDP and primary energy consumption $ trillion of GDP / quadrillion BTU of energy Indexed to 1990 levels 0.22 2.2 0.20 GDP (indexed) Energy productivity 2.0 0.18 1.8 0.16 1.6 0.14 1.4 0.12 1.2 Primary energy consumption 0.10 1.0 (indexed) 0.08 0.8 1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 1990 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, EIA, BloombergNEF Notes: Values for 2019 are projected, accounting for seasonality, based on latest monthly values from EIA (data available through September 2020). 2020 GDP estimate is a projection from economists compiled at ECFC on the Bloomberg Terminal. 21 February 2021
Bryn Baker Director, Policy Innovation Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance
Finance: Corporate sustainability targets Key players: corporate Key players: corporate Key players: corporate clean energy procurement vehicle electrification energy efficiency Retail Financial & Insurance Tech Food & Beverage ● The Climate Group’s RE100 initiative, whose signatories pledge to offset 100% of their electricity consumption with renewables, had another record year of growth in 2020. Some 65 new companies joined, bringing the total number of signatories to 285. The U.S. holds onto its title as the most dominant market, with 79 (28%) of these companies. Technology (18) and Financials (18) are the most prominent sectors in the U.S. ● Through 2020, 123 companies have joined The Climate Group’s EP100 campaign, which is nearly double the 64 that had joined at the end of 2019. Signatories pledge to double their energy productivity by 2030, while also cutting energy waste and owning and operating energy-smart buildings. Notable companies to join in 2020 include Lloyds Banking Group, Mitie and Derwent. ● The Climate Group’s EV100 campaign, under which companies make a public commitment to integrate electric vehicles (EV) into their fleet or support EV charging infrastructure at their operations by 2030, is now up to 92 companies. Members such as DHL and EDF have already made significant progress in electrifying their vehicle fleets, purchasing 22,300 and 3,600 EVs, respectively. Source: BloombergNEF, The Climate Group, company announcements Note: Chart is a list of companies that have either joined a respective campaign or made other efforts in these sectors. 23 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Finance: Corporate procurement of clean energy in the U.S. Renewable capacity contracted by corporations, Largest corporate offtakers, 2020 by technology Annual (GW) Cumulative (GW) MW Amazon 2,932 891 15 14 60 12 Verizon 721 290 12 48 General Motors 797 8 9 Facebook 592 170 9 36 Microsoft 650 Solar 10 6 24 4 AT&T 650 3 3 3 2 12 Google 312 100 1 1 6 Wind 4 1 2 2 3 2 Nucor 325 0 0 2009 11 13 15 17 19 Lowe's 325 Wind Solar Other Cumulative University of Pennsylvania 286 ● Corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) for clean energy totaled 11.9GW in 2020. This is down from 14.1GW in 2019, and is the first drop in annual corporate PPA volumes since 2016. Covid-19 was the biggest factor in the drop – just 4.3GW of deals were announced in the first half of the year as companies tightened budgets and shifted priorities internally in response to the pandemic. Some 7.6GW of deals were announced in the second half of the year, signaling that companies will be better prepared to carry on sustainability initiative during any future disruptions. ● Solar has become the dominant clean energy technology sought by corporations. This is emblematic of a growing power markets expertise among buyers, who are trying to capture peak power pricing, which solar tends to capture better than wind. Additionally, many wind projects in popular markets like ERCOT and SPP have seen their revenues erode as more zero marginal cost clean energy is built, which depresses prices. This has prompted companies to instead seek solar contracts in these markets. ● Amazon was by far the largest corporate buyer of clean energy in 2020, at 3.8GW. The company announced 21 individual clean energy PPAs in the U.S., with most projects cited in Virginia and Ohio. Verizon (1GW) and General Motors (797MW) were the next largest buyers. A slew of first- time buyers also entered the market in 2020, including Applied Materials, Henkel and Nucor. Source: BloombergNEF Note: Charts show offsite PPAs only 24 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
Allison Hull Director, Federal Government Affairs Sempra Energy
Finance: Total new clean energy transition investment Global economy-wide investment, by country U.S. economy-wide investment, by sector Korea $ billion $ billion Hydrogen 100 96 600 Brazil 501 85 Spain 79 CCS 500 459 434 441 80 Netherlands 69 378 61 400 France Energy 330 53 297 60 49 storage 290 United 300 263 44 235 240 Kingdom 42 38 182 173 Japan 40 34 36 35 34 Electrified 200 143 transport Germany 24 109 20 Electrified 100 61 United 9 States heat Other 0 0 Renewable 2005 2010 2015 2020 China 2005 2010 2015 2020 energy ● Global energy transition investment hit $500 billion for the first time in 2020 – a 9% increase over 2019 – marking the largest growth since 2016- 2017. ● The U.S. accounted for $85 billion (or nearly 20% of this global investment), but decreased 11% below 2019. The nation continues to spend the lion’s share of its energy transition capital on renewable energy (58% of total spend) while transport remained a strong growth area (a 42% investment increase in the last 5 years, relative to power’s 31%). Notably, the U.S. now invests roughly $100 million/year in hydrogen, the vast majority of which is tied to fuel cell vehicle sales. ● U.S. renewable energy was not immune to the multi-sector investment dip in 2020. Last year, $12 billion less was invested in renewable technologies (a 20% decrease) than in 2019. Solar and wind continued to pull the majority of the capital, accounting for 99% of all renewable energy investment. Source: BloombergNEF, “Energy Transition Investment Trends, 2021” 26 ©BloombergNEF L.P. 2021. Developed in partnership with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
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