2021 Predictions Managing Your Workforce - Goldbeck Recruiting
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2021 Predictions Managing Your Workforce
your decisions this year. I hope you
Introduction find it to be a valuable use of your
time. If it’s not, let me know about it
on LinkedIn and we can build both
It might seem counterintuitive to
our profiles with some healthy public
start off a report such as this by
debate.
saying that I’m skeptical of predic-
tions, but it’s only fair I’m honest with
One piece of advice I will give that
you.
is more important than any individu-
al decision is this: Take the time to
I think we all know a few examples
hire the best people. Whether you
of the loudest, most confident
use a recruitment agency or not,
person in the room getting an out-
this will always be worthwhile no
sized share of attention for their HENRY GOLDBECK
matter the circumstances you’re
opinion. Then when someone else President
faced with in 2021.
responds with the variables and fac-
tors behind a differing prediction,
eyes glaze over. We tried to walk the follow the rules over the break. If
line between that. This report was A NEW BASELINE HAS BEEN hospital capacity is managed, then
designed to give you a range of set, and companies have all adapt- I believe we will have a good year.
personal opinions from our team ed to work under COVID restrictions. The key will be the first quarter,
that you can combine with the As we write this in the run up to the heavily dependent on the general
opinions of other experts and politi- holidays, the biggest thing we’re health figures. I’m a big believer in
cians you follow and piece together watching for is how closely people the K-shaped recovery. Particularly
here in BC’s Lower Mainland, we be keeping a close eye on the US, Early Performers
Medical Supplies,
have strong industries like construc- and the Biden administration will not Streaming, E-Commerce
tion and tech that will continue to do Alberta any favours. Our 300
grow. Amazon is adding 6,000 million + neighbours to the south are Rebounding Business
people to The Post building, current- heading into the worst COVID Home Improvements,
Surgeries, Technology
ly under construction in a perfect phase to date, and they’re strug-
literal example. gling to manage hospital capacity.
This may affect the import/export
The vaccine will run its course over industry in particular, which has Painfully Slow,
But Not Out
the year. Once things stabilize, the widespread potential consequenc- Airlines,
government will invest heavily on es from US food to auto and lumber Entertainment,
Car Sales
infrastructure to boost the econo- demand. Casualties
my. Our economists aren’t afraid of Over-Leveraged,
Cash-Flow Driven
deficit spending and our federal It will all come down to our local Small Businesses
and provincial leadership will spend consumers in the end. We think that
more liberally in contrast to past they’ll have a lot of pent up spend-
crises. Business owners have already ing desires come the summer and
started their own spending. Plans the next holiday season. Personally, I
and strategies hamstrung by the first think it will be the biggest Christmas
lockdowns and uncertainty are spending ever in 2021. By then, we’ll
unfolding now. Goldbeck had a be publishing our next batch of pre-
similar October and November to dictions and if we were right, we’ll
pre-pandemic levels, and our net- make sure to dust off this report. But
work is busy preparing for next year. most likely, we’ll pretend we never
We do have some concerns. We’ll said any of it!
Table of Contents 5 Hiring and Compensation
6 Candidate Mentality
The following report contains two types of insights, useful to employers
and employees alike. 7 Benefits, Safety and Health
8 Lifetime Learning and Realignment
The first is observational. Where do we stand today? This is the compar-
atively easy part, although putting it into perspective still requires 9 Working Remotely
expertise. 11 Virtual Recruiting, Interviewing and Onboarding
12 Communications and Engagement
The other is predictive. Where are we going tomorrow? Our executive
recruiters and senior team are in close contact with a wide range of 12 Online Everything
business leaders. In order to take advantage of their knowledge,
13 The Role of Recruiters
we’ve teed them up and instructed them to take a rip. Let’s see who
hits the fairway. 14 Facing Uncertainty
KEVIN BRITTON KAREN EPP WILL GOLDBECK CIARAN HENDERSON JESSICA MILES ALLESSIA PAGLIAROLI JUDY SLUTSKY
Executive Recruiter Executive Recruiter Business Development Manager Executive Assistant Executive Recruiter Executive Recruiter CPHR Consultant
PERCEPTIONS OF WHEN
HIRING AND COMPENSATION
THE PANDEMIC WILL END
Of this we are confident: workers will
still be needed in the foreseeable
future and they will still expect to be
compensated. Our shifting econo-
Δ LAST OCT
WAVE 20-21
my remains in flux, but there will be a
light at the end of the tunnel. This
Less than 6
particular period defies the easy
+3 11%
months
14% characterization of boom or bust,
employer’s market or employee’s.
6 months to “Several factors indicate that this “Something that I believe we’re
42% +9 33%
1 year
downturn is different,” says the Har- going to see is the continued trend
vard Business Review. “And there toward smaller offices and working
1 - 2 years 40% are warning signs that Hiring Man- from home,” says our Executive
35% -5
agers dusting off 2008’s hiring play- Recruiter Kevin Britton. “We may
book may destroy considerable see even more contract / contrac-
Longer than
2 years 8% -7 15% value for their firms.”1 tor agreements than actual em-
ployees as people are going to
Several of our executive recruiters want to write off their homes as
and members of our senior team offices, supplies, travel etc. Compa-
Angus Reid Poll taken Dec 16-17, 2020. Base: TOTAL applicable shared their thoughts on compen- nies may be forced to pay for cell
(n=1,510). Q: There’s been a lot of talk of “when this is over”. In
your mind, what will that look like? Q: In the previous question, you sation and hiring. bills, laptops, and internet. This, of
course, would be minimal for smaller
said [PIPE IN Q_NORMAL] And when do you think this will happen?
1 “Why Hiring During Covid Is Different Than in Previous Downturns.” Harvard Business Review, December 7, 2020. https://hbr.org/2020/10/why-hiring-during-covid-is-differ-
ent-than-in-previous-downturns.
5
companies that have large offices CANDIDATE MENTALITY making a move at this time.”
that cost a fortune in comparison.”
With the state of the economy Pagliaroli sees an uptick in interna-
Goldbeck Executive Recruiter Jessi- uncertain, perhaps many are hesi- tional applicants.
ca Miles sees current realities tant to walk away from their current
impacting compensation for sales- positions. “Many applications are coming
people. from the USA (and other countries
“I’m getting fewer applicants from too), definitely more than usual. On
“Since sales representatives are postings,” reports Goldbeck Execu- the other hand, the immigration
selling more virtually, companies are tive Recruiter Karen Epp. “Of these, processes have slowed down so
providing mileage for car use, most are new Canadians or here on many candidates are in an implied
rather than monthly car allowances. work permits. People are holding on status waiting for PR, which is usually
We were already seeing this trend to their jobs and not as open to a deterrent for our clients.”
before the pandemic.”
18-34
Despite the availability of recently 64%
released candidates, our Recruiter 35-54 76%
Alessia Pagliaroli observes that com- FOR YOU, 76% THOSE MORE
panies are approaching hiring with PERSONALLY,
Security
December 2019:
LIKELY TO 55+ 86%
WHAT IS MORE Security 68%
caution. IMPORTANT - Opportunity 32%
SAY SECURITY
IS MORE
OPPORTUNITY IMPORTANT
OR SECURITY?
“Clients have been skeptical about Male 70%
hiring candidates who have been 24%
let go, even if it was due to COVID.” Opportunity Female 82%
Angus Reid Poll taken Dec 16-17, 2020. Base: TOTAL (n=1,510). Q: Now, thinking about your life overall... For you, personally, what is more important -
opportunity or security?
6
BENEFITS, SAFETY AND HEALTH cations to manage stress, disease, ny, the stricter their policies are
pain.” towards travel during COVID, prob-
Top of mind for both employers and ably due to liability issues.”
potential employees are safety, While many are working remotely
health, and benefits. (more on that later), those who must Janitorial staff were once consid-
report to work are expecting a safe ered like hockey referees, the less
As Alessia Pagliaroli says, “Due to the environment. Companies will have seen or thought of, the better the
pandemic, benefits have become to focus on this goal, often at the job they were probably doing. Now-
even more important now, so job expense of business as usual. adays they are featured as symbols
seekers are asking more and more of a workplace’s commitment to
to have benefits covered from day Says Jessica Miles, “Productions and sanitation.
1, instead of waiting for the 3-month operations leaders in many indus-
probation period.” tries will face challenges around Karen Epp adds, “My daughter at
workplace health and safety. The age 17 landed her first job doing
Judy Slutsky, Goldbeck Recruiting’s challenge of increasing operational cleaning for Covid. I expect the
Certified Professional Human efficiencies while maintaining cleaning industry has had to adapt
Resources Consultant, also sees COVID protocols could come into to a lot of changes and demands.
greater need. conflict. Some companies are She is tested weekly for COVID to
requiring employees to travel, remain in her job. Will we see more
“Employees may require greater despite the travel challenges and of this?”
and different access to extended requirement to quarantine when
health care options (physical thera- you get back to Canada. This is
pies in person and online) as well as more for small to medium sized
access to greater variety of medi- companies. The larger the compa-
7
LIFETIME LEARNING AND REAL TIME
REALIGNMENT
“Our need will be the real creator” –
Plato
With so many factors impacting the
workplace, positions are being
reimagined on the fly. Like society
as a whole, companies have taken
on the challenges of 2020 one day
at a time, a trend that will continue
in the near future.
technology becomes a part of the
“I saw executives take on lower Long gone are the days where gold employee deliverables,” says Judy
level responsibilities because the watch ceremonies marking a half Slutsky. “We’re seeing a closer look
business needed them to,” says Busi- century of service to one company at existing employee skills required
ness Development Manager Will were commonplace. Today, more to meet new and future business
Goldbeck. “I know a company than ever, even employees who do objectives, including new technolo-
where after laying off outside sales have extended careers with a single gy required to do business such as
people due to COVID, the VP of company are expected to embrace e-commerce and the leadership
sales had to hit the road and lifelong learning. and management skills to work with
become the de facto junior outside a remote workforce.”
sales person for the company.” “Existing roles now require that new
8
WORKING REMOTELY work productivity and their ability to “I think more full time roles will be
Have you ever sat by an ocean, maintain that coveted work/life bal- filled remotely,” says Will Goldbeck.
lake or poolside on a hot summer ance). In fact, only one-in-five indi- “I saw one posting for a substantial
day? Jumping in seems like a good cate that they want to go back to accounting position and you could
idea, but somehow you’re hesitant the office full time, and two-in-five live wherever you wanted as long as
to do so. After much delay you take saying not at all.”2 you kept 9-5 EST hours. They are a
the plunge. Hours later you’re still normal office, but they figured why
splashing about, hesitant to leave.
Remote working is like that body of
water: 2020 threw us in head first but
now some of us aren’t ready to dry
off any time soon. While the debate
can be polarizing and many are
anxious to get back to the work-
place ASAP, it seems that we’ll see
an uptick in the practice of remote
work for the foreseeable future.
According to Angus Reid, “Over the
last year almost one-half of Cana-
da’s workforce started working from
home. These individuals report high
levels of satisfaction with the experi-
ence (specifically with their overall
2 Roy, Holly. Last Covid-19 Report of the Year, December 21, 2020.
9
not hire an accountant from home? their clients and for sales presenta- panies to diversify their workforce,
Makes sense to me.” tions (Zoom, Teams, etc.).” save money and hire people with
higher skills than the local market
“I am receiving requests almost The consequences of this shift will go allows.”
daily from applicants looking for beyond the ability to wear leisure
remote jobs,” Karen Epp adds. “Will clothes from the waist down. Com- Henderson believes that this unlock-
employers create and be open to panies are increasingly considering ing of geographical restrictions on
more remote positions? In the past, the possibility that their candidate hiring will not only impact the way
once a person proved themselves pool is global. The implications of we work, but the very places we call
to an employer then remote work this are staggering and could take home.
was considered. Candidates now years to fully realize.
want it from the start of employ- “I believe that the valuation of tradi-
ment. I think employers will continue ”I wonder if companies are going to tional commuter cities/towns and
to be slow in this but am curious to be hiring people remotely more and beyond will rise in value. If people
see how remote work evolves.” more often,“ says Executive Assis- only have to visit the office a couple
tant Ciaran Henderson. “This may of times a month, I believe they will
The trend toward remote applies to lend towards the globalisation of be willing to live further away,
sales as well. the workforce in general. If you are hence raising the demand and the
a company who is going to be value of the properties in these
Jessica Miles points out, “As the hiring for a specialized position that areas.”
pandemic continues, customers are is going to be working fully remote,
not allowing sales representatives in. then this does not limit you to the ‘Doveryay, no proveryay’ goes the
Sales people are pivoting and using local geographical region. This Russian wisdom, which translates to
virtual tools to stay in touch with could be a big opportunity for com- ‘trust, but verify.’ It was a mantra oft
10repeated by Ronald Reagan as he ly, but recruiting, interviewing, and
and his Soviet counterpart Mikhail onboarding as well.
Gorbachev worked to thaw the
Cold War in the 1980s. It seems that “Recruiting will be more virtual,”
many managers feel the same way Karen Epp explains. “Clients do not
toward their teams today. expect recruiters to meet candi-
dates in person. In person interviews
“I do believe there will be compa- will happen as a very last step of the
nies that will want software to log recruitment process and only with
people’s work on their home com- whoever really needs to be
puters, usage, etc. to ensure things involved.”
How does HR measure success in
are getting done,” says Kevin
this new style of remote working,
Britton. “Trust is great, but compa- This shift means that both employ-
recruiting and hiring? By looking to
nies and those who have to answer ees and employers will have to
the numbers.
to the bottom line want to have all learn to present themselves favour-
the data they can, I would imag- ably through the screen, says Alles-
“There is a renewed focus on ana-
ine.” sia Pagliaroli.
lytics and data when it comes to
human resources,” says Judy Slutsky.
VIRTUAL RECRUITING, INTER- “Recruiting processes will likely stay
“As organizations decrease human
virtual and both candidates and HR
VIEWING AND ONBOARDING teams need to improve the way
contact with each other – HR data
is becoming increasingly important
they come across/present them-
It’s not only the day to day work that to gauge employee performance.
selves through a video call instead
will be (and is) taking place remote- This has resulted in more focus on
of in-person.”
11having a robust HRIS system and communications technology. ny culture when everyone is remote,
more focus on identifying employee which may create disconnection.”
Key Performance Indicators and “Companies are developing engage-
metrics to identify and track perfor- ment programs to keep the remote Henderson predicts, “There will be a
mance in jobs. teams motivated and focused,” continuing shift in technology towards
argues Pagliaroli. “Also, they are think- improving communication services
Organizations are taking a closer ing about different ways to keep a that people can use to connect
look at employee attrition rates, positive, supportive, inclusive compa- remotely. Looking Glass has already
retention rates, underlying factors in developed an affordable personal
job satisfaction and engagement holographic display. It will be interest-
rates.” ing to see how this technology devel-
ops in the future.”
COMMUNICATIONS AND
ENGAGEMENT ONLINE EVERYTHING
Recent years have seen increased For many households, 2020’s most
focus on team building and compa- frequent houseguest has been the
ny culture. Can this be achieved Amazon guy or gal. Going forward
remotely? Alessia Pagliaroli observes even laggard companies will have
that companies are looking for ways to consider their online custom-
to engage their remote workforces, er-facing infrastructure a top priority.
while Ciaron Henderson can’t help As a result, tech skills will continue to
but wonder about the future of be in demand.
12“Retailers and grocers who think that er loyalty programmes to try and THE ROLE OF RECRUITERS
online services are a pandemic-only keep customers from switching to
situation better think again,” says competitors.” As companies reimagine their work-
Angus Reid. “Before March, curbside places and staff, recruiters will
pick-up or online delivery was a “Delivery services, cold calling sales, evolve alongside them. Managers
niche offering among grocers and construction, mining, food industry are sharpening their pencils during
relatively non-existent among retail- (other than waiters etc.), grocery, this period of economic uncertain-
ers. Now, almost half of Canadians online literally anything are going to ty, which means that recruiters must
have tried online grocery services be huge,” adds Kevin Britton. “Entre- work extra hard to convey their
and that proportion increases to preneurship for people starting value, says Business Development
three-quarters for retailer services.”2 online businesses will be something Manager Will Goldbeck.
they is going to continually
“To have an online presence is no increase.” “Recruiting is an expense. In my
longer an option, it is an absolute area of speaking with prospective
necessity and if businesses stick to a “A functional, effective online cus- clients, this is more apparent to busi-
traditional brick and mortar model, I tomer service/order fulfillment team nesses than before. As an organiza-
think they will be doomed to fail,” has become even more essential for tion, when you had to lay off good
says Ciaran Henderson. “Online companies selling online,” Alessia people in the spring or summer due
delivery services for takeaway food Pagliaroli points out. “Employers may to COVID, it can then be hard to
and groceries have exploded and I create more structured customer justify hiring a recruiter. This is why
think the competition in this area is service/ordering teams that have more than ever we have to justify
going to become bigger. You can the ability to work on pricing, analyt- our expense. Because we are worth
already see a shift in some of these ics, etc. to predict consumers’ new it.
companies putting in place custom- habits.”
2 Roy, Holly. Last Covid-19 Report of the Year, December 21, 2020.
13“This demonstration of value hap- improve their bottom line. That’s just “Every year as the year comes to a
pens not just with lip service, they good business. So that is how we close,” muses Karen Epp, “I wonder
actually have to deliver. I liken it to a grow, to keep delivering and to what will the next year bring? It is
nice restaurant versus McDonald’s. reach more employers who have
A nice restaurant has to live up to tried on their own and know they
WHAT WILL “BACK TO NORMAL” LOOK LIKE?
your expectations and deliver on can’t do it alone. The easy positions,
something you cannot get at Mc- recruiters will get less and less of
Donald’s. If you don’t, then you those.” Things will be
have to compete with the prices at the same as it 6%
always was
McDonald’s, and that is not sustain- FACING UNCERTAINTY
able. In our world that means work- There will be
ing with clients who have worked Death and taxes. Right now, there some minor 41%
really hard to fill a tough position! are few other certainties. Tumultu-
changes to how
we live our lives
They have tried everything and they ous times have a knack for placing
cannot find that perfect mix of a premium on those who can
There will be major
permanent
technical knowledge, experience, re-imagine process, steer a steady changes to how
50%
and career stage. And then we ship, and ride the waves without we live our lives
come in, work our tails off, target the panic. Even as our recruiters have I don’t think there
specific people who qualify, and go gamely offered their predictions for will be a time when 3%
after them. When that happens, our the coming months and years, they this is over
clients are thrilled to pay our fee. admit that constant re-evaluation
Who wouldn’t? We just solved their will be in order. Angus Reid Poll taken Dec 16-17, 2020. Base: TOTAL applicable
problem and they got an incredible (n=1,510). Q: There’s been a lot of talk of “when this is over”. In your
mind, what will that look like? Q: In the previous question, you said
employee who will probably
[PIPE IN Q_NORMAL] And when do you think this will happen?
14typical for November and Decem- office to answer the phone). It
ber to slow a bit. Usually I encour- didn’t work, basically at all. We
age applicants that recruitment is needed the phone call and now we
always busy in the first quarter of the make twice as many phone calls as
year. Today, I am filled with uncer- pre-COVID.”
tainty as to what the first quarter will
be like and some hope that positive Looking forward, Kevin Britton says,
change and solutions are ahead. I “I haven’t seen a huge slow down in
do not feel as certain about any- too many industries but, rather, small
thing as I have in the past.” changes in direction and more stra-
tegic people being put in place
“I think COVID-19 has been a wake who have a vision of our new future
up call for almost everyone,” stress- world.”
es Will Goldbeck. “It makes you
re-evaluate everything you are
doing. Oh, I didn’t even have to go
to the office this whole time? What
else have we been doing that
doesn’t make sense? It definitely
made me re-evaluate how we pros-
pect and reinforced the power of
the phone call. When COVID first hit,
we shifted to email prospecting
(assuming no one would be in the
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