2020 Year in Review Blockchain Capital
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2 Table of Contents Macro Environment 3 Bitcoin 9 Ethereum & DeFi 16 Stablecoins 28 Prime Brokerage 35 Regulation 40 Adoption 49 Looking Ahead 56 FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
4 2020 brought unprecedent levels of money printing $8 Trillions $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $- D-02 D-03 D-04 D-05 D-06 D-07 D-08 D-09 D-10 D-11 D-12 D-13 D-14 D-15 D-16 D-17 D-18 D-19 Fed. ECB BoJ “We’re not out of ammunition by a long shot….there’s really no limit to what we can do with these lending programs that we have.” — Fed Chairman Jerome Powell 5.17.20 Source: FRED as of 11/16/20 FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
5 Globally, GDP and interest rates plummeted in the wake of COVID-19’s impact Real GDP % change from preceding year Central bank interest rates 5.00% 6% 4% United 4.00% States 2% United 0% 3.00% Kingdom European -2% Union -4% 2.00% Japan -6% China -8% 1.00% -10% Switzerland 0.00% nd an on s m a te in do p la ni a Ch Ja St er U ng -1.00% itz an d Ki ite Sw pe d Un ite ro 9 9 9 0 0 0 01 01 01 02 02 02 Eu Un /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 31 31 30 31 31 30 2019 2020 1/ 5/ 9/ 1/ 5/ 9/ § Economic growth in 2020 has hit a multi-year low in § COVID-19 accelerated the breakdown of monetary China and the United States policy, which prompted a more serious consideration of using negative rates to bolster the economy § Compared to 2019, where the global economy as a whole rose by just 2.4%, 2020 levels are at its § The use of negative interest rates is becoming lowest since the 2009 financial crash increasingly less taboo – China just issued their first debt with negative rates Source: IMF as of 11/16/20 FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
6 U.S. saw historic unemployment rates as the economy came to a halt Consumer Price Index and Unemployment Rate 300 16.0% CPI 14.0% 250 12.0% 200 10.0% 150 8.0% 6.0% 100 4.0% 50 2.0% Unemployment 0 0.0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 § Unemployment rate reached historic levels as the economy came to a halt for an extended period of time § While growth is expected in 2021, coronavirus arrived amid the longest expansion in modern American history—as the economy had grown for more than 11 years and added jobs for 113 straight months Source: FRED as of 11/16/20, IMF as of 10/20/20 FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
7 Trust in the federal reserve continued to drop 50% Over 65 years old A great deal, fair amount of trust 40% 50 to 64 years High school $50k plus or less Bachelor’s Some Degree College 18 to 29 years old 30% Under $50k 30 to 49 years old 20% 50% 60% 70% 80% Knowledge of the Fed and its role On average, only ~34% of Americans have a fair amount of trust in the federal reserve Source: Axios as of 10/20/20 FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
8 Since de-leveraging, bitcoin outperformed and decoupled from equities and risk assets 1.4 157% YTD 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Bitcoin US Treasuries 0.2 Gold 0 Investment Grade Bonds US Equities -0.2 Emerging Markets -0.4 High Yield Bonds Commodities -0.6 -0.8 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0 02 02 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 /2 /2 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ /1 /1 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 11 Source: Yahoo Finance as of 11/12/20. Note: Price data is composed of the following: Invesco 1-30 Year Laddered Treasury ETF (PLW), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Markit iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Bond ETF (LQD), Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (JNK), iShares Russell 3000 Index ETF (IWV), iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG). FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
10 Bitcoin’s thesis matures, accelerating amid COVID-19 backdrop § COVID-19 initiated unprecedented macro policy and currency printing, increasing the risks of future inflation Macro § Geopolitical tensions escalated, increasing the importance of censorship resistant platforms § PayPal, Square and fintech companies provide bitcoin onramps for millions of new users On-Ramps § Global exchange infrastructure continues to develop, with stablecoins playing a key role in on / off ramps § Public companies, like Square, buy bitcoin as a part of treasury Diversified strategy, treating bitcoin as a reserve asset Investors § Institutional investors, like Paul Tudor Jones, publicly announce their bitcoin positions Institutional § Bitcoin options and CME bitcoin futures hit all time highs Growth § Growth of crypto-native credit exploded, tightening spreads and expanding liquidity FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
11 Bitcoin remains king, reaching new market cap all time highs 100000 Libertarians / Early Retail Institutions+ Crypto Adopters Investors Enthusiasts 10000 Digital gold Peer-to-peer payments 1000 Proof of concept for e-money Censorship- 100 Safe haven resistant store of asset value 10 1 7/18/10 7/18/11 7/18/12 7/18/13 7/18/14 7/18/15 7/18/16 7/18/17 7/18/18 7/18/19 7/18/20 0.1 0.01 Source: CoinMetrics as of 12/7/20 FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
12 The evolution of bitcoin’s infrastructure is shifting quickly to institutional grade Early Retail Project Institutional & Fintech Project 2009-2017 2018 - Present Exchanges & Retail Wallets Prime Brokerage Stack Self Custody Solutions Crypto-native Credit Payment Applications Derivatives & Options Trading & Analytics Investment Products Crossover Fintech products FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
13 Public companies purchase bitcoin as a part of their reserve strategy Public Company Bitcoin Purchases (Selection) 1400 Millions 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Microstrategy Galaxy Digital Square Hut 8 Mining Corp Voyager Digital Riot Blockchain Holdings LTD bitcoin purchase present value We believe that bitcoin has the potential to be a more ubiquitous currency in the future. As it grows in adoption, we intend to learn and participate in a disciplined way. For a company that is building products based on a more inclusive future, this investment is a step on that journey. - Square Source: Bitcointreasuries.org as of 12/7/20. Microstrategy includes recent raise of $400M to buy more bitcoin FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
14 Increase in sophisticated investor tools like futures points to maturing markets § The growth of bitcoin futures markets points to an increase in ability to hedge exposure, particularly for traders and miners who are very sensitive to price volatility. The more sophisticated tools in the bitcoin market, the greater capital inflows the markets can accommodate § CME, a highly-regulated exchange, saw all time highs for bitcoin futures open interest. The prominence of these onshore exchanges and growing liquidity supports the potential for a bitcoin ETF, as markets are heavily surveilled and considered to be reliable Source: Skew Analytics FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
15 Growth of crypto-native credit reaches all time highs Active Loans of Genesis Global Trading § With an increase in crypto-native credit, market makers, funds and traders can seek out greater leverage with capital efficiencies § Providers like Genesis are quickly growing their active loans, leading to tighter spreads, greater convenience and capital efficiencies § Although crypto-credit markets are early, the growth supports the institutional acceleration of bitcoin Source: The Block FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
16 3 ETH & DeFi FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
17 An update on ETH 2.0 Ethereum Price & Fees, 2020 20 600 Millions 500 15 400 10 300 200 5 100 0 0 1/1/20 2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20 Total Fees Price § ETH 2.0 is in the transition phase to Proof of Stake, with the beacon chain launched, followed by the shard chains in 2021 § With ETH 2.0 underway, the scaling conversation shifted to developments with rollups and other scaling solutions § Projects like Optimism, Matter Labs and other L2 scaling solutions gained momentum as the community looked for immediate scaling in the face of rising gas prices Source: CoinMetrics FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
18 Ethereum’s investment case and ecosystem matured since 2017 2017 2020 ICO Era DeFi Tokens Era § Characterized by utility tokens § Characterized by well-defined with obscure means of value tokens with traditional value capture creation mechanisms § ICOs raised billions of dollars § DeFi validated bootstrapping on without any product in attempt to Ethereum, with token distributions bootstrap and fund networks creating user owned networks § Market struggled to prove out the § Stablecoins and major financial NASDAQ 2.0 model at scale platforms are predominantly secured by the Ethereum blockchain FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
19 Ethereum & bitcoin daily settlement values crossed briefly, as transactions grew Transaction Transfer Value (30-D Rolling Average) Bitcoin Ethereum *Ethereum Settlement Value includes ETH and major ERC-20 Tokens Source: Digital Asset Data FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
20 DeFi found early product market fit across many categories, with TVL crossing $13B § Lending and decentralized exchanges were the breakout DeFi categories of 2020 § Six protocols have over $1B in total value locked § The ability to apply composability in new categories expanded as the “building blocks” of DeFi were established § Rapid experimentation led to the rise of projects like Yearn. Finance, Curve and more Source: Digital Asset Data FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
21 DeFi Protocols vs Traditional Fintech § Assets move through open, secure § Assets move through settlement networks that run 24/7 membership-based messaging networks that rely on extensive § Infrastructure is open source + intermediation (limited hours, open liquidity high latency + manual error) § Protocols are global and agnostic § Infrastructure is closed and to jurisdictional regulations à proprietary compliance is handled at the application layer § High compliance burden § Startup costs are low § New entrants require licenses and/or partnerships with banks § Users own the services + capture value § Corporations own the services + extract value from users FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
22 The open source fintech stack App Layer Protocol Layer Exchange Lending Derivatives Insurance Asset Layer ERC20 ERC721 Fungible Asset Standard Non-Fungible Asset Standard Settlement Layer Native Protocol Asset (ETH) FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
23 What’s changed in 2020? Ownership § Ownership is distributed to users using mechanisms like yield farming and liquidity mining to distribute Distribution tokens User § User experience improvements lead to greater adoption, from base protocol to aggregator layers Improvements § Early protocols have been “battle-tested” § Protocol tokens launched with existing communities, Tokenomics providing cash flows and governance rights § Distributed ownership tested on a larger scale § Composability realized as many “building blocks” were defined Innovative across lending, exchange, stablecoins and more Landscape § The community experimented rapidly with liquidity mining, forked protocols and token distribution methods FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
24 Liquidity mining launched a new era of community-based liquidity Protocol Project Users Users Token issuer or exchange Users provide liquidity with provides rewards idle crypto assets Bootstrap liquidity Earn Yield Onboard new users Participate in governance FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
25 AMMs find product market fit, with Uniswap surpassing Coinbase daily exchange volumes 2017-18 2020 Average Daily Exchange Volume Uniswap Coinbase $680 $485 $473 $379 $321 $333 $294 $297 $201 $223 $211 $54 $1 $16 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Source: Dune, Digital Asset Data FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
26 The DeFi token lifecycle evolved from ideation to token maturity 1 2 3 Ideation & Innovation Issuance Maturity Liquidity mining Tokens are listed on incentivizes growth and centralized and Composability allows for user participation decentralized exchanges quicker product innovation AMMs provide a venue to Protocols transition to bootstrap networks with partial or full community Ability to fork and use limited liquidity governance models open source standards Liquidity providers play Long term sustainability & important role community development FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
27 Risks compound across protocols and users, new solutions are working to address Risks The risk that there’s a bug that produces unintended consequences and potentially Technical Risk losses for users Cascading Failures The effects of the failure in one protocol would reverberate through other protocols Governance rights could, in theory, also be used against the protocol (or, at least, Governance Risk not in its best interests) The value accrual method for these governance tokens is unproven and it is Governance Token unknown to what extent these protocols/applications will be able to subsequently Risk implement additional fees that accrue to governance holders It’s not known if liquidity providers are being over- or under-compensated for Compensation Risk bootstrapping liquidity – primarily because it’s not yet known to what extent this subsidized activity will/can translate to strictly organic activity FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
28 4 Stablecoins & CBDCs FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
29 Stablecoins surged 500%, reaching a supply issuance of $23B Stablecoin Supply Issuance Stablecoin Rolling 30-day Average Settlement $25 Billions $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 1/1/20 4/1/20 7/1/20 10/1/20 § There are currently $23 billion of stablecoins in circulation—compared to $31 billion PayPal dollars in existence. Stablecoins are quickly growing to become one of the most used payment networks in the world § Stablecoin’s daily settlement value increased over 300% as DeFi and derivative markets experienced substantial growth Source: Digital Asset Data FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
30 Tether continues to dominate the market with ~80% market share Tether Source: Digital Asset Data FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
31 What changed in 2020? Derivatives § Accelerated usage of stablecoins as collateral in Growth a rapidly growing derivatives market § Liquidity mining and defi growth caused stablecoins like USDC and Dai to balloon in issuance DeFi § Users of defi continue to trade, collateralize and pay using stablecoins § Macro conditions and COVID-19 increased demand USD Demand for the US dollar, particularly in the spring; stablecoins provided an avenue for exposure Exchange § Abundant global infrastructure and wallets make it possible to handle surge in stablecoin issuance and Infrastructure usage FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
32 Stablecoin sector is building out new infrastructure and use cases Stablecoins Stablecoin AMMs / DeFi Projects Infrastructure Payments / Remittances FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
33 Stablecoins account for 40% of daily settlement value on BTC and ETH Public Blockchains Are Dollarizing Source: Digital Asset Data FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
34 CBDCs around the world gain momentum ECB begins exploring CBDC, making a decision in Jan 2021 Japan exploring CBDC seriously Fed Powell says CBDC could improve US China tested Payments DCEP, with over 4M transactions Digital dollar project announced Bahamas launches Sand Dollar CBDC Launched Pilot Research Development Cancelled Source: CBDC Tracker FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
35 5 Prime Brokerage FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
36 Exchange volumes start to spike, Binance remains market leader Crypto Exchange Volumes Offshore exchange, Binance, continues to be the market leader in global crypto exchange volumes Source: The Block FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
37 Prime brokerage stack matures with fully fledged offerings Staking Custody Execution Lending Settlement FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
38 Centralized finance preliminarily leans into DeFi, but it remains early FTX announced Serum, their own decentralized exchange built on the Solana chain Binance introduced a $100M fund to support DeFi projects on Binance Smart Chain Coinbase quickly listed DeFi tokens with rumors of a token launching platform underway Jump Capital backed Serum, and started funding more DeFi startups through the DeFi Alliance FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
39 Impending M&A and IPO activity builds as prime brokerage market consolidates Acquirer Acquisition Suggested Value Sub-Sector Binance CoinMarketCap $400M Analytics / Retail FTX Exchange Blockfolio $150M Retail Coinbase Tagomi ~$75M Inst’l Prime Brokerage Drawbridge Lending Galaxy Digital Undisclosed Lending / Inst’l & Blue Fire Capital DCG Luno Wallet Undisclosed Retail Voyager Digital Circle Invest Undisclosed Retail Genesis Trading Vo1t Undisclosed Custody Coinbase Xapo (Custody) Undisclosed Custody Circle – OTC, Kraken Undisclosed OTC / Trading BitTrade BitGo Harbor Undisclosed Tokenization Market entering early M&A phase as the race to become a prime broker accelerated FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
40 6 Regulation FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
41 Regulatory landscape advances in key areas § Key cases on token issuance decided: Telegram & Kik Token § The prototypical “2017 ICO” is officially dead Issuance § Federal judicial decisions provide template for token protocols that are actually decentralized § “Offshore” exchanges & markets, formerly considered Token unregulated, face US civil and criminal actions Markets § Actions against bad actors open opportunities for *regulated* market participants to move forward Global § Governments increasingly contemplate CBDCs and perhaps the inevitability of private stablecoin solutions Outlook § India strikes down crypto ban, nations move to regulate crypto FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
42 Major regulatory events timeline SEC grants no-action letter to certain ATD Broker-Dealers Sept 2020 SEC wins preliminary SEC grants no-action injunction against Telegram letter to IMVU token Abra settles with CFTC / SEC wins summary March 2020 Nov 2020 SEC continues SEC over digital asset judgment against Kik to reject swap violation Sept 2020 Bitcoin ETF Jul 2020 Mar 2020 NYDFS grants BitMEX charged BitLicense to ErisX by CFTC, DOJ May 2020 Oct 2020 January June December OCC grants banks Engigma settles with authority to John McAfee sued SEC over $45M ICO custody crypto by SEC for ICO Feb 2020 Jul 2020 Promotions India Supreme Oct 2020 Salt Lending hit with cease-and- Court Strikes Down desist over $47M ICO Securitize gets SEC/FINRA Crypto Ban Sept 2020 approval for digital assets Mar 2020 ATS & Broker-Dealer Oct 2020 SEC Commissioner Peirce proposes token safe harbor April 2020 TOKEN ISSUANCE TOKEN MARKETS OTHER Source: FinCEN, SEC, Blockchain Capital Analysis FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
43 ICO regulation ultimately benefits non-token- issuing industry service providers § Centralized issuers of tokens like Kik and Telegram conclusively disfavored § Federal courts reaffirm that (a) using § Providers servicing already token sale proceeds to develop decentralized ecosystems (e.g., Bitcoin, network or protocol, and (b) issuing Ethereum) have enjoyed greater tokens with no significant use case are opportunities to work alongside both hallmarks of an investment existing regulatory frameworks and contract consolidate market share § However, tokens themselves post- issuance may not represent securities FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
44 The rise of DeFi presents new regulatory considerations for token issuance Genuinely decentralized protocols can avoid the the ’Cardinal Sins’ of token issuance: Using proceeds to Promising increase Promoting token build network in token value secondary trading DeFi’s remedy – literal decentralization § Protocols built / in use before token is issued § Tokens generated as compensation for protocol participation – not sold § Token value primarily resides in governing rights over the protocol § Users act as shareholders AND directors FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
45 Dark and manipulated markets receive US regulatory reckoning Unregulated token market concerns long expressed by regulators… § Commodities markets, like BitMEX, are susceptible to market manipulation and conflicts of interest; no efforts to comply with US regulations, including KYC/AML requirements § Coin mixing services, like Helix, allow users to transfer value without knowing whether the “money” was used to facilitate or obfuscate criminal activity § CFTC and FinCEN finally took civil action; DOJ filed criminal charges …result in enforcement BitMEX Action Criminal Liability Helix / Ninja Coin Action § “Bad Actor” designation § BitMEX: counts of violating and § Alleged to have flouted conspiracy to violate the BSA regulations § Disgorgement § Helix: unlicensed money trans. & § Alleged to have actively aided § Contract rescission conspiracy to launder money cybercriminals § Restitution § Founders indicted and arrested or § $60 million penalty (but could § Civil penalties “at large” have been $210 million) FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
46 Regulators begin to favor regulated and “regulator-friendly” entities Broker/Dealers get no-action letter for simplified ATS execution of digital asset securities Regulated exchanges expand market share and product offerings on and offshore Building blockchain analytics for law enforcement and financial institutions FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
47 Decentralization… the final frontier of digital asset regulation? Idyllic decentralized protocols are ‘Software, not a Service’ § DeFi markets are properly enabled where decentralized users interact with each other via smart contract, not central intermediary § Smart contracts, critically, must be open source software and not subject to ongoing technical or governance control of developers § At minimum, developers should not have ability to “turn the protocol off” § By design, DeFi protocols should make protocol users also protocol governors FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
48 The global conversation primarily revolves around CBDCs and stablecoins Major Events Stance China launches pilot of DCEP, their central bank Pro-blockchain digital currency China Anti decentralized, censorship China launched their blockchain ecosystem, BSN resistant technologies Hong Kong SFC opens path for crypto exchanges to be regulated Cautiously positive sentiment UK regulates crypto derivative products, announces UK Cautiously positive sentiment upcoming stablecoin guidance EU explores CBDC designs and stablecoin regulation, Proactive stance acknowledges the EU ECB pushes forward on a digital Euro future of digital currencies India Supreme court strikes down crypto ban on banks Cautiously positive sentiment FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
49 7 User Adoption FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
50 Market adoption makes progress across key segments Governments Mainstream Fringe Institutions Retail Users 2011 2019 2020 2030+ FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
51 Bitcoin’s perception and awareness remains high across U.S. adults Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Learning Conviction Adoption Awareness Familiarity Perception Conviction Preference Rates Purchase Propensity Owners / Users Source: Blockchain Capital Harris Poll Survey FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
52 38% of people expect bitcoin to exist longer than the euro – in strongly growing conviction Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Learning Conviction Adoption Awareness Familiarity Perception Conviction Preference Rates Purchase Propensity Owners / Users Source: Blockchain Capital Harris Poll Survey FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
53 Estimates suggest there are ~100M worldwide crypto users with major onramps incoming Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Learning Conviction Adoption Awareness Familiarity Perception Conviction Preference Rates Purchase Propensity Owners / Users Lower Bound Estimate of Total Crypto Asset Users & Accounts, In Millions 250 191 200 139 150 101 100 45 35 50 5 0 2016 2018 2020 Total Number of Accounts Total Number of Users Source: Cambridge Crypto Asset Benchmarking Report FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
54 MetaMask adoption showcases Ethereum & DeFi’s growing presence with 1M active users MetaMask Monthly Active Users Source: Metamask FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
55 Retail bitcoin interest filtering in through fintech gateways Google Search Trends 120 100 80 60 § PayPal rolled out crypto buy-and-sell to 40 over 300M users § Square saw record bitcoin volumes and 20 revenues § eToro bolstered its crypto offerings with 0 staking rewards and asset expansion 6 7 8 9 0 15 16 17 18 19 § SoFi received NYBitlicense, clearing the /1 /1 /1 /1 /2 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 22 22 22 22 22 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ way for crypto trading services 11 11 11 11 11 Cash App Bitcoin Robinhood Bitcoin PayPal Bitcoin § Revolut turned on crypto services across Source: Google Search the world FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
56 8 Looking Ahead FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
57 Revisiting 2020’s Bold Predictions 1. A crypto company is acquired for more than $500m 2. Value locked in DeFi hits $5B 3. In the face of competition from China, Libra will receive the green light for a dollar-backed stablecoin 4. A federal judge rules against the SEC in a crypto case 5. Not a single 2020 L1 network launch achieves "top 10” status, as defined by network value 6. USDC sees 300%+ growth (as measured by transaction value, issuance, market cap and trading volume) 7. Demand for bitcoin transactions drives fees to exceed $100, catalyzing scaling up the stack 8. FinCEN / FATF hold stablecoins to a stricter standard than paper cash by requiring broad application of the travel rule 9. KYC / AML becomes the primary regulatory battleground for DeFi 10. Privacy coins are de-listed from major exchanges 11. Bitcoin price blows past all-time high FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
58 2021’s Bold Predictions 1. Coinbase debuts as the first IPO in crypto, market cap surpasses $30B 2. Industry sees two acquisitions above $500M and one acquisition above $1B 3. USD-backed stablecoin market issuance (Tether, USDC, Libra) surpasses $150B+ 4. The combined market cap of top 3 DeFi governance tokens increases from 33% to 66% of ETH’s market cap 5. Loans outstanding in DeFi protocols increases by 10x, surpassing $30B 6. 33% of all crypto exchange spot volumes will come from DEXes 7. WeChat Pay and Alipay support China’s CBDC 8. SEC approves first BTC ETF and first *custodial* digital asset Broker-Dealer 9. Bitcoin market cap grows from 4% to 10% of gold’s market cap 10. Microstrategy rebrands to Macrostrategy ;) FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
59 About Blockchain Capital MANAGEMENT TEAM Brad Stephens Bart Stephens Spencer Bogart Co-founder and Co-founder & Managing General Partner Managing Partner Partner Stephens Inv. Mmgt Stephens Inv. Mmgt Needham & Company Fidelity Ventures Ivanhoe Capital ETF.com CSFB Technology Group E*TRADE Group CFA INVESTMENT TEAM OPERATIONS TEAM Ben Davenport Jimmy Song H. Joshua Rivera Kinjal Shah Aleks Larsen Derek Hsue Shishi Feng JoAnne Lauer Zalia Aliriza Lindsey Crawford Allie Spencer Venture Partner Bitcoin Fellow General Counsel Senior Associate Senior Associate Associate Data Scientist Director of CFO Executive Assistant Office Manager and Chief Investor and Executive Compliance Relations Assistant Officer FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY | NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
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