2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
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Executive summary Maintaining the pace of radio Contents access evolution 3 Mobile networks face a decade of change This White Paper describes how the underlying radio access technologies 4 Continued global effort will be vital will develop further by another factor of 100 over the next 10 years, 5 State of the art LTE-Advanced ensuring that there is no slowdown in the evolution of radio capabilities. 6 Significant potential for further Radio Evolution Nokia Siemens Networks is actively engaged in collecting requirements and viewpoints as well as shaping 9 Beyond 4G: The technical cornerstones this development. We are researching advanced radio network solutions 13 Techno-Economical aspects to support up to 1000 times higher traffic volumes compared to 2010 14 Worldwide collaboration on standardization traffic levels. 14 Nokia Siemens Networks research leads the way Welcome to the next evolutionary stage of the mobile experience – 15 Conclusion: Delivering the gigabit experience Beyond 4G. 2 Beyond 4G
Mobile Networks face a decade of change Every year, the demand in mobile broadband communications increases dramatically as more and more users subscribe to mobile broadband Explosion of packages. In addition, smartphones, number of devices super-phones and tablets with powerful multimedia capabilities and applications are becoming increasingly Explosion of Machine-to-machine transactions popular and are creating new demands on mobile broadband. Finally, new Explosion of data services and applications, for traffc volume Smartphones example pervasive 3D multimedia, Super-phones are emerging, making the experience of using mobile broadband better and Laptops more exciting. All these factors are adding up to create an exponential increase in traffic Figure 1. Multi-dimensional traffic growth in mobile networks volumes and transactions. Meeting the demand calls for “liquid network capacity” that can adapt easily to fluctuating user demands over time and location. These trends, shown in Figure 1, are expected to maintain their momentum over the next decade and Peak data rate will be complemented by the arrival 6 of billions of machine devices and Backwards Spectral efficiency related machine-to-machine (M2M) compatibility 4 applications. Extrapolations of current growth trends 2 predict that networks need to be prepared to support up to a thousand- Energy 0 Latency fold increase in total mobile broadband traffic by 2020. This figure assumes a ten-fold increase in broadband mobile subscribers and up to 100 times higher traffic per user 6: No compromise (beyond 1 GByte/sub/day), with Scalability Consistency 5: Strong requirement smartphones and super-phones 4: Compromise possible 0: Not relevant experiencing the fastest growth. Cost per Bit In 2020, most important design Figure 2. Design criteria for Beyond 4G systems targets are expected to be the cost per delivered bit and system scalability. In addition, future heterogeneous network deployments will offer ubiquitous connectivity with rock-solid quality where necessary. Other important targets are latency minimization, consistent area performance and energy efficiency for boosting consumer experience. Beyond 4G 3
The wireless network’s environmental impact is becoming an increasingly Enablers important consideration. Improving the energy efficiency of network components, such as base stations Multi-RAT and access points, not only cuts Heterogeneous Networks CO2 emissions but, also reduces operational expenses, lowering the cost per bit. This is important, considering the expected traffic and Spectrum Cognition, Pooling throughput growth up to 2020. A decade from now, mobile broadband systems must meet Coordination CoMP, ICIC these requirements. Fulfilling these will strongly influence the economic success of the wireless sector, from device and component manufacturers, Smaller Cells Micro, Pico, to network and service providers. Relay, Femto Today’s wireless systems fall short of 2020 demands and significant Sp En Ar Ro KPIs ec er ea bu research and development effort will tra gy Ef stn lE Ef fic es be needed over the next decade. ffic fic ie ien c s ien nc y Figure 3 shows the key enablers to be cy y investigated, as well as the different Key Performance Indicators that will be used to verify system performance. Figure 3. Beyond 4G technology enablers, KPIs and optimization timelines Continued global effort will be vital Beyond 4G radio will require spectrum network deployments with distributed requirements for next generation to support higher data rates and higher cooperating nodes will need to be systems. This global effort started with capacity. The industry, for example deployed. The introduction of a new the definition of IMT-2000 systems for vendors and CSPs, expects to obtain Beyond 4G access system could be 3G standardization. The requirements new spectrum at the world radio considered if justified by significant for 4G systems were defined under conference (WRC2016). However, gains (>50-100%) measured against the title IMT-Advanced. ITU-R is even today it can be seen that if new the KPIs outlined in Figure 3. expected to analyze the demands and spectrum is allocated to mobile radio requirements for the next generation of applications, this will be far from To create a globally-harmonized broadband wireless systems to guide sufficient to meet the predicted traffic approach to specifying and developing and harmonize future developments demands for 2020. Thus, technologies broadband wireless networks, ITU-R towards ‘Beyond 4G’. with increased spectral efficiency, has established a widely accepted and new heterogeneous dense framework by setting minimum 4 Beyond 4G
State of the art LTE-Advanced Many CSPs have deployed LTE Release 8 in commercial LTE-Advanced networks to offer peak data rates Self optimization Toolbox up to 100 Mbps. The first phase of Automatic optimization the LTE-Advanced specification was completed by the 3GPP Release 10 in June 2011. LTE-Advanced offers peak rates of 1 Gbps by using carrier Heterogeneous networks Macro, Micro, Pico aggregation and multi-antenna coordination transmission. LTE-Advanced will raise spectral efficiency through Multi-system co-operation coordinated multipoint transmission, which refers to multi-antenna transmission simultaneously from Relaying multiple base stations. Out-band & in-band relay As we have seen, traffic volumes are likely to increase faster than the amount of spectrum being made available and the rise in spectral efficiency. More base Coordinated Multipoint stations will therefore be needed to offer Coordination between the necessary capacity. LTE-Advanced base stations supports heterogeneous networks with co-existing large macro cells, small micro and pico cells, and WiFi access points. Low cost deployment will be MIMO achieved by self-organizing features. 8x 4x Downlink 8x8 MIMO Uplink 4x4 MIMO Many features of LTE-Advanced have been studied by the research community for years and will now Carrier Aggregation provide practical benefits for customers. Figure 4 summarizes the main LTE-Advanced features that can + Up to 100 MHz be deployed flexibly on top of LTE Carrier 1 Carrier 2 Release 8 networks. The commercial availability of LTE-Advanced features is expected to be during 2013-2015. Figure 4. LTE-Advanced and Self-Optimization toolbox of features Beyond 4G 5
Significant potential for further Radio Evolution Radio Evolution will not stop with • Radio implementation required to achieve that target. LTE-Advanced - on the contrary - bandwidth increases Mobile broadband data in many the underlying technologies will The development of RF countries is carried today by the keep improving. technologies will enable UMTS 2100 MHz band with a total radio implementation with wider of 2 x 60 MHz of spectrum. • Digital processing bandwidth. Larger RF bandwidth power improves is another key factor in enabling Refarming all 900 and 1800 MHz The so-called Moore’s law higher data rate transmission. bands for mobile broadband would describes the long term trend give a total of 340 MHz of spectrum. in hardware and computing. • Optical fiber availability With 800 MHz and 2600 MHz The number of transistors on and cost improves allocations, the total spectrum will be an integrated circuit doubles Fiber enables faster connections 600 MHz. These spectrum blocks are approximately every 18 to 24 to base stations, either as backhaul already available in a few countries months. That trend has been or front-haul up to the antenna. and will be widely available by 2015. valid for more than 50 years and The entire spectrum identified for IMT there are no signs that the law will These technology advancements amounts to more than 1,100 MHz, break down before 2020. Higher will enable the deployment of higher in addition to a large amount (about processing power enables higher data rates and higher capacity, as 500 MHz) of unlicensed spectrum data rate signal processing in the well as driving down the cost per at 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz. The total digital baseband. bit. Yet, radio evolution also requires spectrum will be 3 – 10 times spectrum. The amount of spectrum the current allocation for mobile available for mobile broadband may broadband. Spectrum evolution is increase by up to 10 times, but a lot shown in Figure 5. of global coordination work will be 2000 Unlic 5 GHz 1800 Unlic 2.4 GHz 3700 1600 3400 1400 2600 1200 2300 MHz 1000 2100 TDD 2100 800 1800 600 900 400 800 200 700 0 450 2010 2012 2015 2020 Figure 5. Expected additional spectrum assets for mobile broadband 6 Beyond 4G
The link level capacity is bound by the Shannon limit, but that does not apply at the system level where several 10.0 cells interact with each other. System efficiency can be enhanced by clever designs in which inter-cell interference 8.0 can be optimized. Today’s spectral efficiency is typically between 0.5 and 1.0 bps/Hz/cell (for example HSPA), 6.0 taking into account legacy terminal and backhaul limitations. Efficiency (bps/Hz/cell) could be pushed to 5 - 10 bps/Hz/cell by using multi-antenna and multi-cell 4.0 transmission and cooperation as shown in Figure 6. Meanwhile, radio latency has no 2.0 fundamental limits, except those imposed by the speed of light, and could be pushed into the millisecond 0.0 range or even less by advanced HSPA LTE 2x2 LTE- + COMP + UE + Further today Advanced interference innovations protocol design. One millisecond 4x4 cancellation corresponds to a round trip time of 100 kilometers in optical fiber, Figure 6. Spectral Efficiency Evolution therefore lower latency would be beneficial for large amounts of local content. Latency (ms) Latency (ms) 15.0 25.0 10.0 Transport + core BTS 20.0 5.0 Air interface 15.0 UE 0.0 LTE 10.0 5.0 0.0 HSPA LTE Beyond 4G Figure 7. Latency Improvements (round trip time) Beyond 4G 7
10x We also expect that base station density will increase by a factor of 10 in areas with a large density of active users. Large numbers of femto cells 50 Mio will be deployed to improve home and small office coverage and offload traffic from macro cells. Additionally, a large installed base of WiFi Access Points (>500 million) will carry traffic, mainly indoors. The impact of the three enhancement topics, improvements in spectral 5 Mio efficiency, additional spectrum and large number of small base stations, 2010 2020 will be to enable up to 1,000 times more capacity than today, as illustrated in Figure 9. Figure 8. Increase in the number of base stations due to network densification Spectrum (MHz) Spectrum efficiency BTS density (/km2) (bps/Hz/cell) 1200 10 120 1000 100 8 800 80 6 600 60 4 400 40 200 2 20 0 0 0 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 10x 10x 10x 1000x Figure 9. Technology capabilities allow 1000 times more data in 10 years’ time 34% CAPEX Savings 85,9m EUR 46% OPEX Savings 186,7 Mio EUR (Over 6 years) (Over 6 years) 120 200,0 100 150,0 80 100,0 50,0 8 Beyond60 4G 40 0,0 ) y e e e al g a e & t
Beyond 4G: The technical cornerstones Ubiquitous heterogeneous Diverse radio access technologies delivery capabilities, services networks will need to be integrated, with any could be delivered intelligently to Future networks will be deployed combination of LTE, HSPA+, Wi-Fi and take advantage of the operational more densely than today’s networks. Beyond 4G radio access technologies. environment. Context sensitive Due to economic constraints and site Last but not least, the allocated variables could be the existence availability, networks will become spectrum will be more fragmented and of other access networks, the significantly more heterogeneous may even be shared among CSPs availability of radio bandwidth, the in terms of transmit power, antenna according to new license models. radio propagation environment and configurations (number, height and user mobility patterns. Furthermore, pattern of antennas), supported In a future wireless network, the quality of connections could be set frequency bands, transmission connectivity will also be designed according to available network and air bandwidths and duplex arrangements. to take energy efficiency into interface resources. Radio network nodes will vary from account. Networks will intelligently stand-alone base stations to systems distribute radio resources to achieve with different degrees of centralized the lowest energy consumption processing, depending on the possible. Hence, instead of offering availability of front-haul and backhaul. a uniform radio access with varying Macro cell - Macro cell Macro cell - Macro cell - Femtocelli Femtocelli Indoors Macro cell - Macro cell - Micro cell Femtocelli WiFi Macro cell - Pico cell Indoors Femto cell Figure 10. Heterogeneous Networks with a myriad of multi-radio cell layers Coverage area of Macro cell Coverage area of Micro cell Coverage area of Pico cell Beyond 4G 9
Extreme automation by self- The air interface one of the focus areas for the Beyond organization and cognition 4G air interface studies. The air interface is the foundation The management of heterogeneous of all wireless communication SC-FDMA used in the LTE uplink networks needs to be fundamentally infrastructures. The properties and maximizes coverage by maintaining redesigned for simplicity and interoperability of different air- a low peak to average power ratio efficiency. This calls for coordinated interfaces, physical layer, protocol to support efficient power amplifiers dimensioning of quantitative layer, retransmission, critically affect in devices. However, there is room parameters, the ratio between large the QoS, spectral efficiency, energy for further coverage and/or power and small cells, form factors, multi- efficiency, robustness and flexibility of efficiency enhancements, for example vendor domains and backhaul options. the entire radio system. The evolution high UL bandwidths (100 MHz) and The exploitation of cloud technologies, of the air interface will be driven by carrier aggregation. virtualization, resource pooling and small cell dominated architectures. increased degrees of coordination Consequently, relevant aspects, User plane latency is the measure of are key technologies to reduce the such as propagation and interference the end-to-end performance of many cost of transmission sites for antenna conditions need to be developed applications. The minimum round trip clusters. carefully. time (RTT) of LTE is around 10 ms (Figure 7). It is generally accepted The dilemma in radio network The LTE air interface is optimized for that latency must decrease in line with management is the balance between the wide area environment where the the increase in data rates. Hence, an centralized and distributed control. In transmit power difference between the RTT of the order of 0.1 – 1 ms needs future, the increasing number of small device and base station is relatively to be considered as the initial target cells with fiber backhaul will drive the large (up to 25 dB). Consequently, for a Beyond 4G system. It is obvious need for locally centralized small cell both the modulation scheme (SC- that if the radio can provide very small clusters capable of global optimization. FDMA vs. OFDMA) and the physical latency (such as 0.1 ms), that is only channel structure differ significantly beneficial for content that is very close Future networks will be populated with between the uplink (UL) and downlink to the point of use. various kinds of devices with wireless (DL). The UL has been designed to access. Some devices will need maximize the link budget for control It is difficult to make major high bandwidth (HDTV or 3D video and data channels. improvements in latency without streaming/download), some will have impacting the air interface. The stringent latency requirements (VoIP For example, given the similar uplink components of latency, such as frame or gaming), while others will need a and downlink transmit powers and structure, control signal timing, and maximized robustness and reliability limited coverage area required for HARQ, form the key building blocks (e-Health, Car2x Communication). indoor access points, maximizing of the air interface. Therefore, major Moreover, a much greater variety the similarities between UL and DL improvements in U-plane latency of devices, M2M, notebooks and is sensible. Similar multiple access imply considerable changes in the smartphones will demand network schemes could be used in both air interface. For example, an RTT flexibility. A vital future technology is directions, simplifying system design requirement of 0.1 ms interprets to TTI Cognitive Radio Networks (CRN) - and hardware implementation and lengths down to 10-25 μs. This cannot the next evolution of Self-Organizing providing better support for D2D be achieved with the current LTE- Networks (SON). CRN will enable communications. Thus, a similar air Advanced OFDMA numerology, but flexible spectrum management, interface in UL and DL would enable requires a more versatile approach. device-to-device networking and new use cases and gain mechanisms, wideband software-defined radio. especially in the TDD mode, which is 10 Beyond 4G
The link performance in today’s mobile The next generation wireless broadband systems is often limited device will support a vast number of by interference from other elements services with a powerful and complex of the system. Relatively primitive communications engine. Radios in means to suppress such interference devices already support cellular, WiFi, at the receiver side have already been GPS and Bluetooth. Additionally, introduced in state-of-the-art wireless- international roaming requires devices communication systems (e.g. HSPA+ to support a variety of radios/bands 3i receiver). However, the increasing because globally available frequency level of computationally-intensive bands are not consistent. As a result, signal processing, even in hand-held the RF complexity in the device will terminals, opens up the possibility increase drastically, requiring radios to of more advanced methods of support multiple bands and duplexing interference suppression/elimination. methods (FDD & TDD). An even more disruptive, but very In future, the radios in the device challenging, technology step would will perform local radio resource be to extend current multi-antenna management and assist with network schemes, typically comprising just a resource management. Device few antenna ports at each node, to support for carrier aggregation and massive multi-antenna configurations. heterogeneous networks could enable In an extreme case, this could simultaneous communication over consist of a myriad of cooperating multiple radio access technologies. antenna ports (for example in a The wireless device may also be a much more distributed manner also gateway for a multitude of sensors and known as “immersed radio”). Inter- machine type devices. It will perform cell interference cancellation and spectrum sensing for capturing and coordination can increase average analyzing the radio environment. data rates, but even better, these solutions can improve cell edge The optimization of device power data rates. consumption is important in current devices and will remain a key factor in Requirements for devices the future. Battery capacity improves very slowly compared to the evolution In the smartphones and super-phones of other technologies. of today, radio is only a small part of device capability. Enhanced user experience is central and CSPs advertise innovative plans for the services and applications that a phone can support. In essence, the major selling point in the new wireless device is no longer radio, but undeniably, ubiquitous radio access remains the essential backbone for supporting new applications and services. Beyond 4G 11
Product component The future of mobile communications limited bandwidth to a large number technologies will include a vast variety of of customers. communication nodes with various For cost and practical reasons, base sets of requirements and priorities. • The technologies need to enable stations will become significantly Some will need to be designed higher average data rates in the smaller. To date, this goal has been primarily for quality of experience, Uplink and Downlink with more pursued by improving existing some will bring the highest energy bandwidth and more antennas. technologies, but at some point efficiency, while others may focus • We also need higher efficiency the frontiers will be reached and a on robustness and security. This to deliver more Gbps in a limited technology leap will be necessary variety calls for major improvements amount of spectrum. here as well. Outsourcing tedious in flexibility, both for the network and • In dense areas, more capacity computations to the network cloud the architectural design of the nodes. per square kilometer will need to is already a new and promising The main cornerstones for the radio be provided by increasing the shift, but power amplifiers and other evolution are listed in Figure 11. density of small base stations and components will also have to inherent offloading. be revisited with respect to their This section has illustrated the cost and wideband capabilities. technical enablers that will boost the Further integration with antenna practical user experience from a equipment, already starting today few Mbps to several Gbps. The with the first Active Antenna Systems, ultimate target is to offer consistently is a good example. higher useable data rates within a Past (2010) Future (2020) Wide scale small cell Large macro cells (heterogeneous) deployments Fiber availability and new wireless Limited backhaul capacity backhaul solutions applied Fast interference coordination Inter-cell interference limits capacity and cancellation Small cell configuration and Cognitive Radio Networks (CRN) optimization is complex Stationary network configuration Self Organizing Networks (SON) and spectrum Multi-branch and multi-site Two branch antennas antenna transmission Figure 11. Main cornerstones for the long term radio evolution Today Future (2020) Large macro cells 100 BTS / km2 5 Gbps / BTS Limited backhaul capacity backhaul solutions Fast interference coordination Capacity >50% x Inter-cell interference limits capacity Capacity 25% x peak rate and cancellation peak rate Network configuration and >1000 EUR/BTS / year Self Organizing Networks
Techno-Economical aspects In future, CSPs are likely to increase infrastructure sharing. Virtualization 200 MHz will be a key technology in achieving this and already the concepts and 100 MHz basic building blocks have been tested. By the end of the decade, new business relationships, enabled 20 MHz RF bandwidth increases by network resource virtualization and sharing, will introduce new opportunities and possibly new players into the value chain. Macro Micro Pico/ Fingertip Femto Total Cost of Ownership Mobile CSP revenue is expected to grow only moderately during the next 10 years. If CSPs need to be able to Base station form factor gets smaller support 1,000 times more traffic with current cost structures, the cost per Figure 12. Evolution trends for base stations bit must be pushed down by a factor of 1,000. One way to achieve lower cost is to The Techno-Economic balance provide more capacity with small base between traffic growth and flat stations and cells. To provide high revenue is achieved by higher capacity, RF equipment must support radio efficiency with smaller base large bandwidth and great frequency stations. However, it is not enough agility. The lower cost will be enabled to have lower base station cost, we by new base station power and form also need to push down operational factors that allow much smaller base costs with low cost transport, low station products. These key factors are cost configuration and low cost illustrated in Figure 12. optimization. 1000x capacity gain: Up to 1000x 10x more BTS Traffic growth 10x spectral efficiency 10x spectrum 1000x cost reduction: 10x BTS bandwidth Flat TCO 10x spectral efficiency 10x smaller BTS Flattish Revenue Growth Figure 13. Techno-Economic balance Beyond 4G 13
Worldwide collaboration on standardization It is likely that ITU-R will look into The 3GPP success stories of HSPA possible requirements for Beyond and LTE show that worldwide 4G systems, as well as preparing for collaborative specification work among WRC2016 to identify new spectrum for partners is the only way to achieve wireless communication. large economies of scale, therefore we expect that this community will play its Collaborative research projects, role when the real specification work for example within the Framework for Beyond 4G begins. We should not Programs (e.g. FP7 and 8) of the forget that existing 4G technologies European Union, will play an important will further evolve by adding new role to share the Beyond 4G research capabilities from ongoing research and workload among the main players specification work. in industry, academia and CSPs and lay the groundwork for subsequent standardization. Nokia Siemens Networks research leads the way Consolidated efforts are necessary the 3GPP LTE standard, numerous from all players in academia and publications and books, collaboration industry to develop innovative in international research projects technologies and deployment options (WINNER+, SOCRATES, MEVICO that meet the demands of mobile and ARTIST4G), strategic cooperation broadband wireless in 2020. As with key universities, joint research well as the focus on evolutionary work with leading CSPs, Smartlab enhancements, the mid-term and activities with all leading smartphone long-term research must also identify vendors, and research teams in possible technology leaps. multiple continents. Nokia Siemens Networks emphasizes the importance Nokia Siemens Networks conducts of open standards and sharing leading research activities in radio, research results in white papers, with thousands of contributions to publications and books. 14 Beyond 4G
Conclusion Delivering the Gigabit Experience Radio access technologies need significant advancements to meet Traffic Growth the capacity and cost requirements Up to 1000x predicted for 2020. We need to prepare to support a thousand-fold traffic increase from today with Antennas constant cost structure. All active Revenues & TCO 1000x capacity gain: beamforming 1000x Flattish - 10x more BTS massive MIMO growth The technology - 10x mix to address this spectral efficiency challenge will be a combination of a - 10x spectrum large number of small base stations, 2020 extensive use of advanced antenna Unified Network Cooperation & 1000x cost reduction: Extreme Automation Coordination technologies, self-organizing networks Scattered Spectrum Interference - 10x BTS bandwidth TCO enhanced with cognitive radio network, - 10x spectral efficiency Smart Offloading Spectrum wideband radios - 10x smaller BTS and wide use Myriad of Cells Antenna clusters of available fiber optics networks for the backhaul and front-haul. Flattish Revenue Growth Access Architecture Nokia Siemens Networks is at Distributed and Centralized the forefront in developing and driving the most economical and powerful technologies and solutions together with the industry and research partners. Figure 14. 2020 Challenges and Enablers Abbreviations 3GPP Third Generation Partnership Project M2M Machine-to-machine BTS Base Transceiver Station MIMO Multiple-Input, Multiple-Output CoMP Co-ordinated Multipoint Processing OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division CP Cyclic Prefix Multiple Access DL Downlink QoS Quality of Service FDD Frequency Division Duplex RF Radio Frequency GPS Global Positioning System RTT Round Trip Time HARQ Hybrid Automatic Repeat ReQuest SC-FDMA Single Carrier Frequency Division HSDPA High Speed Downlink Packet Access Multiple Access HSPA High Speed Packet Access SON Self-Organizing Networks ITU-R International Telecommunication Union – TDD Time Division Duplex Radio communication sector UE User Equipment IMT- Advanced International Mobile UL Uplink Telecommunications - Advanced UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications KPI Key Performance Indicator System LTE Long Term Evolution WRC World radio Conference Beyond 4G 15
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