2020 Arizona Community Colleges
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2020
1
STRATEGIC VISION FOR 2030
In 2017 Arizona’s community colleges embraced a Strategic Vision for 2030, which focuses college
efforts around three major goals: expanding access to postsecondary credentials; increasing transfer
and completion of associate degrees and certificates; and improving alignment between college
programs and workforce needs.
The Strategic Vision for 2030 builds upon the colleges’ previous long-term plan, published in 2011, and
outlines how Arizona’s ten community college districts will continue to improve student outcomes, as
well as how the districts contribute to Arizona’s broader economic and educational goals. In particular,
the Strategic Vision for 2030 creates a framework for reaching the Achieve60AZ goal that by 2030,
60% of the Arizona working-age population will hold a postsecondary credential.
A major function of the Strategic Vision for 2030 is the collection, analysis, and publication of data
pertaining to 33 short-term, mid-range, long-term, and follow-up metrics. The majority of these
metrics have been in place for years, making it possible to evaluate trends in student progress and
outcomes.
Statewide and district-level data will continue to be used to guide improvement efforts at community
colleges across the state. Statewide data will also be shared with the Arizona Board of Regents, the
Arizona Department of Education, and Arizona’s workforce development and business communities in
order to assist in the improvement of educational and economic pathways.
The Strategic Vision for 2030, as well as a Technical Guide that provides detailed definitions of each
metric, can be found online at: www.arizonacommunitycolleges.org.METRICS AND COHORTS 2
METRICS COHORTS
The 2020 Strategic Vision Outcomes Report The 2020 Strategic Vision Outcomes Report
presents data related to 33 short-term, mid- tracks several cohorts of students.
range, long-term, and follow-up metrics. These 2017 and 2013 New Student Cohorts are used to
data identify areas of strength, as well as places examine student persistence and success after
where Arizona’s community colleges will need to two and six years, respectively.
focus their efforts in order to expand access,
increase transfer and completion, and improve 2017 and 2013 Credential-Seeking Sub-Cohorts,
alignment with workforce needs. defined as cohort members who earned at least
12 credits by the end of their second year, are
Short-term metrics correspond to enrollment used for some retention, transfer, and
rates, cost measures, and training for high- completion measures. Credential-seeking sub-
demand occupations. cohorts provide a more accurate gauge of
Mid-range metrics examine student persistence student success, as they take into account
and success in the first two years of college. learners’ diverse education and training goals.
Long-term metrics pertain to transfer and 2016-17 Occupational Cohort, comprised of
completion rates. students who exited a community college in
Follow-up metrics examine student success after 2016-17 after completing a specified number of
departing the community college and may be credits in an occupational pathway, is used in a
affected by economic forces, as well as the follow-up metric related to earning industry-
actions of Arizona universities. recognized credentials.3 Expand Access:
Short-Term Metrics
Metrics 1 and 2: Metrics 3 and 4: Enrollment of ABE/GED
FTSE and Total Enrollment and Dual Credit Learners
450,000 35,000
384,174
400,000 351,850 28,905
30,000 26,962
350,000 302,594 25,126 25,216
285,388
300,000 25,000
250,000 18,216 18,686 18,527
20,000 16,479
200,000
135,789 133,917
150,000 116,494 109,051 15,000
100,000 10,000
50,000
5,000
-
-
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
FTSE Enrollment Total Enrollment Number of ABE/GED Learners Number of Dual Credit Learners
Statewide, total annual enrollment at Arizona’s Across Arizona, total annual enrollment in Adult
community colleges has declined from its Basic Education (ABE) and/or General
recession-era high in 2010-11, although full-time Educational Development (GED) courses was
student equivalent (FTSE) enrollment is more 16,479 in 2018-19. Total annual enrollment of
stabile. Despite this enrollment decline, which high school learners in dual credit courses rose
mirrors national trends, Arizona’s community to 28,905. These programs are essential in
colleges have increased the percentage of expanding access to Arizona’s community
students transferring and earning credentials. colleges.Expand Access: 4
Short-Term Metrics
Metric 5: Metric 6: Percent of Credit Hours Earned
Enrollment of Underserved Populations Via Alternative Times or Places
50% 100%
47%
90%
40% 41% 80%
34% 35% 70%
33%
68%
30% 60%
65%
64%
64%
63%
63%
63%
62%
61%
27%
50%
20% 40%
30%
10% 20%
10%
0% 0%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-28 2018-19 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Age 25+ Underserved Populations Pell Recipients Alternative Times/Places Standard Times/Places
The percentage of Arizona community college At Arizona’s community colleges, only 32% of
students who are members of an historically instruction in 2018-19 occurred in traditional
underserved racial/ethnic group has increased semester-length courses held on campus
substantially and now exceeds the percentage of Monday through Friday, 8am to 5pm. Extending
the state belonging to an underserved access to many diverse populations, 68% of all
population (44%).¹ Arizona’s colleges enroll more student credit hours were earned online, at
adult learners than the national average (33%), night or on the weekends, at skill centers, or on
but fewer Pell recipients (34%).² land belonging to Indigenous Communities.5
Expand Access:
Short-Term Metrics
Metric 7: Metric 8: Cost of Attendance as a
Community College-Going Rate Percentage of Median Household Income
50% 40%
45% 46% 35%
40%
30%
35% 29%
27%
30% 25% 26%
24% 24%
30%
25% 26% 26% 20% 21%
20% 16%
15% 15% 14%
15% 13%
10%
10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Arizona United States UA NAU ASU US CCs AZ CCs
While the rate has declined since its recession- At roughly $7,200 per year, the median net price
era high in 2010-11, Arizona’s community of attending Arizona’s community colleges is just
colleges enroll a higher percentage of recent 13% of the state’s median household income.
high school graduates than the national average This rate mirrors the national comparison (14%)
(26%).² Arizona’s community colleges will and is substantially lower than Arizona’s public
continue to work with the Arizona Board of universities (24-29%),³ making the community
Regents to improve college-going across the colleges excellent and affordable options for
state. postsecondary education and training.Expand Access: 6
Mid-Range Metrics
Metrics 9 and 10: Metrics 11 and 12:
Developmental Course Success Rates Success After Developmental Education
100% 60%
90% 52%
50%
80% 47%
77%
74%
70% 40%
63% 63%
60%
30% 31% 31%
50%
40% 20%
30%
10%
20%
10% 0%
0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017
Success After Developmental English/Reading
Developmental Math Developmental English/Reading Success After Developmental Math
Over two years, 74% of student credit hours After six years, 52% of developmental English or
attempted in developmental English or reading reading learners in the 2013 New Student
by the 2017 New Student Cohort were Cohort successfully completed a college-level
successfully completed (with a grade of A, B, C, course in English, and 31% of developmental
or Pass). In that same time period, 63% of math learners in the same cohort completed a
student credit hours attempted by the same college-level math course. These success after
cohort in developmental math were successfully developmental education rates are similar to
completed (with a grade of A, B, C, or Pass). national averages.⁴7
Increase Transfer and Completion:
Mid-Range Metrics
Metric 13: Metric 14: Percent of First College-Level
College-Level Course Success Rate Math and English Credit Hours Completed
100% 100%
90%
80% 79% 79% 79% 90%
80% 75% 76% 76%
72% 74%
70%
80% 80%
60% 77%
73%
76%
50% 72%
70% 70%
40% 65%
30% 60% 61%
20%
50%
10%
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Speech English Comp. II English Comp. I College Algebra
Over two years, 79% of student credit hours The rates at which Arizona’s community college
attempted in college-level courses by the 2017 students successfully complete College Algebra,
New Student Cohort were successfully English Composition I and II, and Speech (with a
completed (with a grade of A, B, C, or Pass). This grade of A, B, C, or Pass) have steadily increased
rate has remained steady over the past several since 2011-12. These rates mirror or exceed
years. corresponding national averages (66-79%).⁵Increase Transfer and Completion: 8
Mid-Range Metrics
Metrics 15 and 16: Percent of Learners Metrics 17 and 18:
Attaining Two-Year Credit Thresholds Retention Rates
60% 100%
53% 90% 93% 91%
50% 51%
48% 80%
45% 77% 76%
40% 70%
60%
30% 54%
50% 51%
20% 40%
30%
10%
20%
0% 10%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Part-Time Learners Completing 24 Credits
Full-Time Learners Completing 42 Credits AZ Fall-to-Spring AZ Fall-to-Fall U.S. Fall-to-Fall
By the end of their second year, 53% of part- Ninety-one percent of the 2017 Credential-
time learners in the 2017 Credential-Seeking Seeking Cohort (excluding those who transferred
Cohort had completed 24 credits, and 48% of and/or earned a degree or certificate) persisted
full-time learners in the same cohort had to spring 2018, and 76% of them returned the
completed 42 credits. These rates are notable, as following fall. Arizona’s retention rates are
students who attain these credit thresholds are substantially higher than the 54%⁷ reported as a
more likely to persist and earn a degree or national comparison, likely because the national
certificate.⁶ figure is not limited to credential-seekers.9
Increase Transfer and Completion:
Long-Term Metrics
Metric 19: Metric 20: Graduation
Degrees and Certificates Awarded (Degree/Certificate Completion) Rate
50,000 50%
43,877 43,758 43,695
45,000 42,206 43,198 42,562 45%
39,696 40,134
40,000 40%
34,944
35,000 35% 35%
30,000 30% 30%
25,000 25% 25%
23%
20,000 20%
44%
44%
43%
44%
43%
15,000 15%
42%
43%
42%
42%
10,000 10%
5,000 5%
- 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Degrees Awarded (19,127 in 2019) Certificates Awarded (24,568 in 2019) Arizona United States
Between 2011 and 2019, the number of degrees After six years, 35% of the 2013 Credential-
and certificates awarded by Arizona’s community Seeking Cohort had completed a degree or
colleges increased by 25% to 43,695, despite certificate. Arizona’s graduation rate is
declining enrollments. Of the 2019 total, 44% substantially higher than the most recent
were degrees and 56% were certificates. These national comparison (23%),² in part because the
data reflect a concerted effort by Arizona’s national number is not limited to credential-
community colleges to increase the number of seekers.
learners earning postsecondary credentials.Increase Transfer and Completion: 10
Long-Term Metrics
Metric 21: Metric 22:
AGECs Awarded AGEC Completion Rate
14,000 40%
12,026 12,034
12,000 11,312 35%
10,956
30%
10,000
25% 24%
8,000 21%
19% 20%
20% 19% 19%
16% 17%
6,000 16%
15%
4,000
10%
2,000 5%
- 0%
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In 2018-19, Arizona’s community colleges Statewide, 24% of the 2013 Credential-Seeking
awarded 12,034 Arizona General Education Cohort completed an AGEC within 6 years, a 50%
Curriculum (AGEC) certificates, an increase from increase from the 2005 Cohort. Increasing the
previous years. The AGEC is comprised of 35-37 AGEC completion rate—a key priority for the
credit hours of coursework that, upon state’s community colleges—will not only ease
completion, transfer to all public colleges and transfer to Arizona’s public universities but also
universities in the state and fulfill lower division, help students earn bachelor’s degrees in less
general education requirements. time and with fewer excess credits.⁸11
Increase Transfer and Completion:
Long-Term Metrics
Metrics 23 and 24: In-State Transfers Metrics 25 and 26:
and Percent with AGEC and/or Degree Transfer Rates
12,000 35%
10,853
10,507 10,696 10,821
10,141 10,315 10,257 10,355
30%
10,000 9,777
9,201 30%
25% 28% 28%
8,000 26%
20%
6,000
60%
60% 15%
60%
62%
61%
59%
59%
59%
52%
4,000 10%
51%,
5%
2,000
0%
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
To all Four-Year Colleges and Universities (Credential-Seeking Cohorts)
Transferred with AGEC and/or Degree Transferred without AGEC and/or Degree To Arizona Universities (ASSIST Transfer Behavior Cohorts)
In 2019, the number of students transferring The statewide transfer rate to public universities
from Arizona’s community colleges to an in- rose to 26% for the 2012 ASSIST Transfer
state, public university was 13% higher than in Behavior Cohort, and the overall transfer rate
2010, despite declining enrollments. As well, the (the percent of learners in credential-seeking
percentage of transfers who earned an AGEC cohorts who transfer to any four-year college or
and/or degree prior to transferring has increased university within 6 years) increased to 30%. Both
substantially, indicating that the transfer process rates are higher than the most recent national
is becoming more efficient and cost effective. average (25%).⁹Increase Transfer and Completion: 12
Long-Term Metrics
Metric 27 : Percent of Learners
Achieving a Successful Outcome
2013 61%
2012 61%
2011 61%
2010 60%
2009 61%
2008 65%
2007 66%
2006 64%
2005 61%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Awarded a Degree/Certificate Transferred - No Degree/Certificate
Still Enrolled After 6 Years
Statewide, roughly 61% of learners achieve a successful outcome within six years. Because
community college learners enter college with diverse education and training goals, and because
they often attend part-time and/or earn credits from more than one institution, several national
accountability initiatives—including the Student Achievement Measure—have broadened the
definition of a successful outcome to include earning a degree or certificate, transferring to
another two- or four-year college or university, or continued enrollment. Nationally, 58% of all
community college students (62% of full-timers and 55% of part-timers) achieve one of these
successful outcomes within 6 years.¹⁰13
Increase Transfer and Completion:
Follow-Up Metrics
Metric 28: Percent of Full-Time Transfers Metric 29: Percent of All Transfers
to AZ Universities Earning Bachelor’s Earning Bachelor’s Degrees
Degrees within Four Years within Four Years
100% 70%
90% 62%
60% 60%
80%
70% 70% 69% 70% 69% 71% 69% 69% 50%
70% 68% 48%
40%
60% 36%
50% 30%
40% 20%
30%
10%
20%
0%
10%
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
0%
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 United States Arizona
Sixty-nine percent of all 2015-16 full-time Statewide, 48% of 2015-16 transfers from
transfers from Arizona community colleges to in- Arizona community colleges to all four-year
state, public universities earned a bachelor’s institutions (public and private, in-state and out)
degree within four years. This rate has remained earned a bachelor’s degree within four years.
relatively steady in recent years and indicates Somewhat lower than the national average
that most full-time transfers are graduating from (62%),⁹ this percentage may reflect a high
the state’s public universities in a timely manner. incidence of part-time attendance after transfer.Increase Transfer and Completion: 14
Follow-Up Metrics
Metric 30: Estimated Percent of the Arizona
Working-Age Population with a Postsecondary Credential
60%
51.3%
50% 45.3%
40% 45.6%
41.8%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Arizona Actual United States Actual
Arizona Projected United States Projected
In 2019, an estimated 45.6% of the Arizona working-age population
(residents aged 25-64) held a workforce certificate, associate degree, or
bachelor’s or higher degree (down from 46.2% in 2018). Arizona’s
community colleges are working closely with the Arizona Board of Regents
and other postsecondary institutions across the state to reach the
Achieve60AZ goal that by 2030, 60% of the Arizona working-age
population will hold a postsecondary credential.15
Improve Alignment:
Short-Term and Follow-Up Metrics
Metric 31: Metric 32: Percent Earning Industry-
FTSE Enrollment in Occupational Courses Recognized Credentials
50,000 100%
45,000 43,570 95% 94%
39,523 39,713 90% 92%
40,000
85%
35,000 82% 83%
80%
30,000
75%
25,000 70%
20,000 65%
15,000 60%
10,000 55%
50%
5,000
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
-
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Arizona United States
Over the past year, FTSE enrollment in Out of all learners in the 2016-17 Occupational
occupational courses increased slightly across Cohort who took a technical skill or end-of-
Arizona. Many of these enrollments were in program assessment up to one year after college
degree or certificate programs associated with exit, 92% passed the assessment and/or earned
the highest-demand occupations in the state, an industry-recognized credential. Examples of
including (among others) nurses, preschool occupational programs leading to industry-
teachers, computer support specialists, web recognized credentials include nursing, EMT,
developers, and medical or dental assistants. construction, solar technologies, fire science.Improve Alignment: 16
Short-Term and Follow-Up Metrics
Metric 33: Percent of the 25 Highest-Demand Occupations in Arizona
requiring more than a High School Diploma but less than a Bachelor’s
Degree for which Community Colleges offer Degrees or Certificates
√ Medical Assistants √ Radiologic Technologists
√ Nursing Assistants √ Paralegals and Legal Assistants
√ Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers √ Respiratory Therapists
√ Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers √ Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
√ Computer User Support Specialists √ Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians
√ Teacher Assistants √ Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
√ Dental Assistants √ Computer Network Support Specialists
√ Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses √ Dental Hygienists
√ Medical Records and Health Information Technicians √ Diagnostic Medical Sonographers
√ Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks √ Massage Therapists
√ Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Psychiatric Technicians
√ Health Technologists and Technicians √ Surgical Technologists
√ Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics
Arizona’s community colleges offer degree and/or certificate programs that train
workers for 24 of the 25 highest-demand occupations in the state. For many of the
fastest-growing sectors of the workforce, (e.g., medical and nursing assistants,
computer support specialists, EMTs and paramedics, teacher assistants, and
preschool teachers), nearly every community college district in the state offers a
program.17
Strategic Vision Data:
Sources and Attributions
¹U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2019). American Community Survey, 2014-18 5-year estimates. Washington, DC:
Author.
²U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2019). Digest of education statistics.
Washington, DC: Author.
³U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2019). American Community Survey, 2014-18 5-year estimates. Washington, DC:
Author; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2020). College navigator.
Washington, DC: Author.
⁴Bailey, T., Jeong, D. W., & Cho, S. W. (2010). Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental
education sequences in community colleges. Economics of Education Review, 29, 155-270.
⁵National Community College Benchmark Project. (2018). Report of national aggregate data. Overland Park,
KS: Author.
⁶Moore, C., Shulock, N., & Offenstein, J. (2009). Steps to success: Analyzing milestone achievement to improve
community college student outcomes. Sacramento: California State University, Institute for Higher Education
Leadership and Policy.
⁷NCHEMS. (2015). Retention rates - First-time college freshmen returning their second year (two-year public
institutions). Boulder, CO: Author.
⁸Kisker, C. B., & Wagoner, R. L. (2013). Implementing transfer associate degrees. Perspectives from the states.
New directions for community colleges, no. 160. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
⁹Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University. (2015). What we know about
transfer. Research overview. New York: Author.
¹⁰National Student Clearinghouse. (2018). Snapshot report: Yearly success and progress rates (two-year
publics, first-time, full-time and first-time, part-time). Herndon, VA: Author.You can also read
