2019 The mystery of the electric car - L'Observatoire Cetelem
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2019 The mystery of the electric car
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
1
ELECTRIC VEHICLE:
POSITIVE VIBES
Page 6
2
A POTENTIAL AND
SOME QUESTION MARKS
Page 22
3
THE EV TRANSITION –
A GOOD REASON FOR HOPE
Page 46
4
THE COUNTRIES OF
L’OBSERVATOIRE CETELEM
Page 64
APPENDICES
QUANTITATIVE DATA
FROM L’OBSERVATOIRE CETELEM
Page 82
EDITORIAL BY FLAVIEN NEUVY, HEAD OF L’OBSERVATOIRE CETELEM THE MYSTERY OF THE ELECTRIC CAR The automotive sector developed and prospered thanks to an abundance of cheap oil with high energy efficiency. For over a century, its domination has been unparalleled. Similarly, for decades, cars have become increasingly dominant without any consideration for the environmental factors. Electricity, Then the tide turned. Raw materials have become scarce the clean energy and expensive, due to an unremitting rise in global demand and the realisation that the reserves may run out. The time of the future to take action to protect the environment has also come. This has put the oil sector and the waste it generates firmly in the hot seat. It has therefore become necessary to innovate and find solutions. Subject to increasingly stringent regulations, manufacturers have improved the performance of fuel-powered vehicles, by reducing fuel consumption and their polluting emissions. At the same time, the automotive industry has invested in the development of new types of engine like hybrid and fully electric cars. Manufacturers have long been sceptical of the electrical car. 10 years ago, only a few people believed in it. Since 2012, L’Observatoire Cetelem has devoted its annual survey to the electric car. Since then, there have been a large number of public policies in support of EVs, which have been mirrored by manufacturer investments. The success of COP21 prompted the nations to commit to taking measures to reduce greenhouse gases. The Dieselgate and rigged engine scandal has only added to the debate surrounding fuel-powered vehicles, forcing manufacturers to speed up the development of EVs. Consequently, many new fully electric models will be coming onto the market over the next few years. The price of batteries has dropped significantly, and their range is increasing. On paper, the stars seem to be aligning for the electric car to occupy a significant share of the automotive landscape: technological progress, lower prices, public policy incentives, widening of the offer, positive image in the eyes of motorists, etc. Although the electric car has everything it needs to succeed, sales are still relatively small. This is the mystery of the electric car. Happy reading!
2019
Methodology
The economic and marketing analyses, as well as the forecasts, were conducted in partnership with
C-Ways (www.c-ways.com), a survey and consulting firm that specialises in Anticipation Marketing.
The field work of the quantitative consumer survey was steered by Harris Interactive in June and July 2018
in South Africa, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, China, Spain, United States, France, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Insufficient
Poland, Portugal, United Kingdom and Turkey. In total, 16 countries and more than 10,600 individuals were
interviewed online (CAWI collection method). These individuals aged 18 to 65 come from national samples
Modern public
that are representative of each country. The quota method was employed to ensure that the sample was Second car
recharging
representative (gender, age). 3,000 interviews were conducted in France and 500 in each of the other countries.
Positive image Car sharing facilities
Norway has therefore been included for the first time in L’Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile. Given
that the 2019 topic deals with the electric vehicle, there was no option but to include the country in Pleasant to drive No second-hand
the world that is most concerned by the matter in terms of its share of electric vehicles, i.e. 21% of its market
vehicle sales in 2017. Elitist Practical
A qualitative study – from which are extracted the verbatim accounts quoted during the study – was
Silent Long charging time Sophisticated
added to complement the programme in France. Six focus groups on the electric vehicle were organised
by Harris Interactive in Paris, Lyon and Bordeaux in July 2018. Maintenance More expensive
Trend
Country codes
network journeys to purchase
Short
Belgium (BE), Brazil (BR), China (CN), France (FR), Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Mexico (MX), inadequate
Norway (NW), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), South Africa (ZA), Spain (ES), Turkey (TR), Dangerous Few models
United Kingdom (UK), United States (US).
Short battery life available
Note – technical benchmark
The study will focus on the market and future of electric vehicles (EVs). EV refers to any vehicle that has
Eco-friendly Reliable Dynamic
only one electric motor powered by a battery and performs all of its journeys in electric mode. A range Relatively little maintenance
extender is sometimes associated with the EV. This is an auxiliary power unit that does not propel the car
but recharges the EV before the battery runs out. In some cases, the plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) may be Uncertainty regarding Economical to run
combined with the EV. It has two engines, i.e. an electric motor for completing part of the journeys in elec- its second-hand value
tric mode (with a range of about 25 miles), while the other internal combustion engine is used for longer
distances. These electrical solutions are often combined with so-called combustion engines, i.e. internal Gateway to the city
Home
charging
Feminine
combustion or explosion-type engines. These engines, which run on fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, gas) made
predominantly from oil, are sometimes slightly “hybridised“. An electric motor supports the internal Limited range
combustion engine and reduces the energy consumption during the key acceleration phases. These light
hybrid vehicles are non-rechargeable and are therefore not included in the EV category. Finally, another
Ultra-urban
solution that can be described as electric is the vehicle powered by a fuel cell that runs on hydrogen fuel.
This vehicle can be used for long journeys that exceed the limits imposed by the range of a standard EV.
Given its cost, which is still very high, it is currently restricted to demonstration sales and captive fleets.
Only 3,000 were sold worldwide in 2017 and it is difficult to foresee its mass development before 2030.
This is why it will not be addressed in this Observatoire.
4 5
2019
1
ELECTRIC VEHICLE:
POSITIVE VIBES
Thanks to its specific technical features, it would seem
that electric vehicles (EV) can provide a solution to some
of the issues facing the environment, the economy, industry
and society. However, there are still some real ongoing technical
and organisational issues as well as certain potential obstacles
to its development. Once these have been overcome, there can be
no doubt that motorists will ultimately take full advantage
of its strengths and merits.
7
ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
ENVIRONMENT: Fig. 1
CO2 emissions from well-to-wheel (WTW)
In g/km WTW
FROM PROMISES TO REAL ACTION
Source: IFP EN
Electric vehicle (100% coal) 180
R
Electric vehicle (Poland mix) 110
oad transport (cars and lorries), which produces about 17% of global
greenhouse gas emissions, is the third largest source of emissions Electric vehicle (Germany mix) 75
behind energy generation and industry. The impact on the environment is Electric vehicle (EU mix) 60
noticeable not only globally, but also locally. Electric vehicle (France mix) 12
Natural gas hybrid 75
The global challenges of mobility should be measured for each type of power station
Diesel hybrid 95
At COP21, which was held in Paris at the end of or source of electricity production. In most cases, it Petrol hybrid engine 110
2015, most states made a commitment to reduce is calculated for the “energy mix“ of a geographical
their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order area or country.
Diesel combustion engine 132
to combat global warming, in a context where
automotive fleets and car use are on the rise in From “well-to-wheel“, the EV dominates petrol and
the emerging countries. Although reducing per- diesel in terms of CO2 emissions in almost every
Impact on the climate of electric cars per country in 2015
Fig. 2 In thousands of tCO2e
vehicle emissions can contribute to achieving case. Conventional combustion engines only out- Source: International Energy Agency
the objectives set, “promoting“ electric vehicles perform the EV when its electricity is generated
is probably a more effective and sustainable solu- from coal. Given their predominantly nuclear
tion to tackling this issue in part. and hydroelectric energy capabilities, French and
Countries where electric cars reduce Countries where electric cars increase
greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse gas emissions
Norwegian EVs are particularly eco-friendly while
The EV needs to come clean those of the United States and China, to an even
EVs are often called “clean“ because they do not greater extent, are not yet using suitable primary
Norway -100
emit any CO2 or other gases or particles from energy sources (Fig. 2). In the future, the EV’s France -65
“tank-to-wheel“, while not taking into account the advantage will continue to grow as electricity pro- Sweden -10
emissions generated when the electricity needed duction becomes decarbonised with the increasing
for the batteries is produced. A true analysis must use of renewable energies as pledged by the COP21
Canada -10
actually go from “well-to-wheel“ with the inclu- signatories.
Netherlands -8
sion of upstream emissions (Fig. 1). In theory, this Spain -4
Italy -2
Portugal -2
Germany -2
United Kingdom -2
South Africa -1
South Korea -1
6 India
15 United States
225 China
8 9
ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
networks, when the vehicle is connected to the grid
Taking the life cycle into account
A truly global assessment must also rely on an ana- with a so-called Smart Grid system. These same THE POWER
lysis of the entire life cycle of the EV, including that batteries could also be used to store renewable
of its battery, from its construction to managing
its disposal at the end of its life. A report by the
energy production, which is intermittent by nature
and not necessarily available when it is needed.
OF THE PUBLIC AUTHORITIES
Ricardo firm estimates that the production of an These two-way exchanges between the network
“average“ petrol-powered car produces emissions
that are equivalent to 5.6 tonnes of CO2 whereas
the emissions of an equivalent electric car come to
and the battery can continue during a second life.
After losing a significant proportion of their ini-
tial capacity, they would be removed from EVs and
In order to shift the boundaries, develop a new sector and change buying
habits that have become established over more than a century, public
policies are essential.
8.8 tonnes, nearly half of which are associated with installed in apartment buildings, for example, to
the production of the battery. However, the same continue to play a role in supporting the network.
report estimates that over its entire life cycle, the International awareness favours the EV. At the national level, most countries
electric car will generate only 80% of the emissions he absence of pollutants,
T Given the current situation, public policies are not also promote the development of EVs using both
of the petrol-powered car. a local benefit always clearly understood, although this is the coercive and incentive measures. The most pollu-
Although the global CO2 assessment is not positive consistent expectation of 70% of the people inter- ting vehicles are discouraged by high taxes and low
The impact of batteries in every case, the benefit of electric vehicles at the viewed for this study (Fig. 3). There are schemes quotas while the registrations of clean vehicles like
Firstly, battery production has some very negative local level is undisputed. Without combustion, there to promote the electric vehicle, albeit on a variety EVs are supported by various forms of subsidies.
upstream environmental impacts in the develo- can be no emissions. Without an exhaust pipe, there of different scales. At the European level, Euro
ping countries where the lithium, cobalt, nickel or can be no discharge. EVs do not emit any nitrogen standards require manufacturers to reduce pollu-
manganese, which are needed for its production, oxide, volatile organic compounds, particles or other tant emissions from “tank-to-wheel“, which in fact
are extracted, processed and transformed. It is harmful gases. Although tyres and brake pads do
therefore necessary to ensure that the production indeed leave some materials on the roads, the EV’s
is ramped up in accordance with the sustainable engine braking and energy recovery system reduces In your opinion, should there be more, fewer or no change in the number of policies
development requirements. The same goes for the any such losses and emissions.
Fig. 3 (national and local, financial and non-financial) supporting electric vehicles?
In %
cell transformation and battery production that is
currently located in Asia for the most part. The lungs of those who live in cities have everything
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
to gain. The same can be said for their ears. The Average over 16 countries 65% | 9% | 26%
Further downstream, recycling battery parts is also electric car generates virtually no noise pollution. More Fewer No change in the number
essential not only for the environmental assess- Only the sounds of the wheels rolling on the road
87
84
ment of the EV but also for its cost. The arduous and the displacement of the air are noticeable. As
80 80
process of recovering rare materials makes it pos- we will see below, this essential element did not go
73 74
70 70
sible to reduce recycling costs and can ensure the unnoticed by those interviewed by L’Observatoire 63
self-financing of dedicated structures. Since 2006, Cetelem, 90% of whom said that EVs are quiet and
60 60
the law in Europe requires the recycling of 50% of non-polluting in the city.
55 55
the mass of lithium-ion batteries.
47 46 47
45
35 36 35
33 32 33
vehicle that is useful
A 29
23
29
when it is not moving 19
From an environmental point of view, EVs also
18 17
14 14 13
show themselves to be useful when they are immo-
11 12
9 10
7 7 8 7 8 8 7
6 6 6 6
bile. A private vehicle spends most of its time par-
5
ked. During periods of peak demand for power,
the electricity available in the batteries could be
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
used to help even out fluctuations in the electricity
10 11
ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
Financial support could provide the needed impetus. In Norway, there
for the transition have been multiple ambitious public incentive mea- Evaluation of the total cost calculated over 4 years
Most of the support measures concern allowances sures. Public subsidies have made EVs cheaper, while
Fig. 4 Source: BEUC
and subsidies to reduce the difference that still urban regulations have granted them many car
exists between the cost of an EV and its fossil fuel parking spaces and facilities. As a result, EVs now
equivalent. Support schemes to finance charging account for 21% of total sales. In contrast, when the Electric car Petrol car Petrol car without superior technical performance
station infrastructures and the implementation subsidies are removed or reduced too quickly before
of public and shared e-mobility systems are also the cost to run electric cars has dropped below that
needed. of fuel-powered vehicles, the sales growth stops.
€27,550 €27,500
This is what happened, for example, in Denmark.
€27,200
Today, the development of the electric vehicle can- €26,550
not be done without strong and lasting financial
incentives. “Indirect“ support such as free urban
€26,550
tolls and car parks, or access to dedicated bus lanes, €25,550 €25,550 €25,500
€25,500
€25,000
€24,500
COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF EVs €24,500
Comparing the total cost of different energy The changes in the price of oil and its taxation
2015 2020 2025 2030
solutions is not easy (Fig. 4). Many parame- as well as the fall in the price of batteries, which
ters have to be taken into consideration: pur- account for half the price of an EV, will determine Mileage profile compatible with EVs
chase price of the vehicle (including tax), the exact rate of convergence. Obviously, these Fig. 5 Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
maintenance costs, fuel or electricity usage results deserve to be broken down by type of
expenses, depreciation and resale value on the user, especially according to the annual mileage
second-hand market, etc. For a product that (Fig. 5). The higher it is, the greater the incentive
is still relatively new and rare on the market, will be for the motorist to bear an additional cost
Daily mileage
such as the EV, the future value and second- on buying the vehicle in order to recover the cost
hand prices can only be estimated approxima- during its use.
DAILY MILEAGE TOO HIGH
tely. Most of the comparative studies, however,
EV RANGE TOO SHORT
indicate that the total cost (i.e. purchase cost To smooth out these ongoing price differences
plus running costs) of EVs is still higher than when buying a vehicle and resolve the uncer-
that of fuel-powered vehicles, but that this cost tainty associated with the residual value of an
is shrinking rapidly. The European Consumer EV and its battery, long-term leasing, with or
Organisation concluded that in a comparison without an option to purchase, can be a great
ANNUAL MILEAGE TOO LOW
ELECTRIC VEHICLE AREA OF INTEREST
TO OFFSET THE EXTRA COST OF THE
between the fossil fuel Opel Astra and the fully alternative to the conventional option of buying EV
electric Nissan LEAF, the total cost of the lat- the car outright. The investment is smoothed
ter was 8% higher in 2015. This difference will out over time, the maintenance costs are known
drop to 4% in 2020, and then to 1.5% in 2025, in advance and the distributor is contractually
to represent only 0.5% by 2030. liable for the residual value of the EV. Annual mileage
12 13
ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
It’s time to charge ging network will have to be deployed to reassure Facilitating e-mobility systems of the EV. On the one hand, the increase in volumes
Because the battery of the electric vehicle must be those who are hesitating to get an EV and those The experts agree that the EV will be all the more generated by these shared EV offers will reduce
regularly recharged, having access to a charging point motorists who need a single vehicle for every type attractive economically and environmentally if it battery production costs through accelerated eco-
is an advantage. For people living in a house, it is easy of journey. What’s more, such an infrastructure is used intensively. We’re thinking of the last mile nomies of scale. On the other hand, it will prepare
to install a charging device, and particularly easy to will require particular specifications. Ideally, quick when delivering goods in a city, the shared fleets public opinion and motorists and get them used to
recharge a vehicle overnight. For the residents of a – and therefore more expensive – charging stations of company vehicles or even those used for shared the idea, thereby influencing their future personal
block of flats, it will be preferable for the car park to will be required, especially on motorways. Then, mobility services (carsharing fleet). Thus, the coor- choices.
have a network connection. If this is not the case, the a typical “chicken and egg“ problem arises. Char- dination and structuring of public policies at the
regulatory framework could facilitate this. Another ging stations will only be installed if enough EVs national and local level – cities and urban hubs –
option is to recharge the battery at the workplace. plug in to make them profitable, but there will only are essential for the promotion and development
Here again, appropriate regulations and taxation be enough EVs if there are enough charging faci-
would speed up the deployment of charging points lities on the roads... The public authorities must,
in the corporate world. once again, take measures to bear some of the risk
and costs borne by the motorway operators and
However, having access to a charging facility at energy providers. In 2016, the number of public
home or at the workplace will be insufficient to charging points increased at the same rate as the
fulfil every need – particularly that of reassuring number of EVs on the roads. The vast majority of
those who are more concerned about running out EVs were being recharged on private roads (Fig. 6).
of power. Given the current range limitations and
the impossibility of replacing an empty battery
with a full battery, it appears that a road char-
Growth in the number of charging points in the world, 2010-2016
Fig. 6 In thousands
Sources: IEA + EAFO (2017) 2,000
Private charging points
Public charging points - fast
Public charging points - slow
1,100
750
400
200 200
150
100 100
25 20 50 50
0 0 0 0 0 10 10 15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
14 15
ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
CURRENT EXAMPLES OF POLICIES TO PROMOTE United Kingdom United States
ELECTRIC VEHICLES •S ubsidy model based on the CO 2 emitted • “ Corporate Average Fuel Economy“
per km and the zero-emission vehicles (CAFE), a regulation designed to improve
China Germany (5,800 USD for the EVs with battery, the average fuel consumption of vehicles
• Exemption from acquisition taxes and • €4,000 discount on the purchase of a 3,300 USD for the plug-in hybrid that will provide bonuses for EVs.
indirect taxes from 5,100 to 8,700 USD. battery EV and €3,000 discount on plug-in vehicles). • Tax credit of 2,500 to 7,500 USD capped
• L ocal subsidies capped at 50% of the hybrid vehicles, for up to 400,000 vehicles • Tax benefit: exemption from fuel taxes at 200,000 units sold per manufacturer.
amount granted by the state subsidies. until 2020 or €600 m of subsidies. and import taxes for EVs and reduction • Mandate to produce zero emission
• S tarting in 2017, 20% reduction in 2016 • The car manufacturers will finance 50% for plug-in hybrid vehicles, reduced vehicles in 9 states.
subsidies, with the option to adjust this of the subsidy, while the government will taxation for company vehicles. • In some states, purchase discounts and
policy according to the impact on the finance the remaining 50%. • Government expenditure plan of more tax exemptions.
market until 2020. • Exemption from road tax for 10 years and than 770 million USD between 2015 and
• In 7 major urban centres, the restrictions then for 5 years from 2021. 2020 to encourage the production and
on electric vehicle number plates have • Reduction in taxes on company vehicles. purchase of Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles
been lifted. • Locally, free parking and access to bus lanes. (ULEV): target of achieving 100% sales of
• L ocally, bus lanes may be used except new zero-emission vehicles by 2040.
at peak times, and the tolls and parking • “Go Ultra-Low City“ model: measures
spaces are free.
Japan to support very low emission vehicles
•P urchase subsidies according to the in several cities including London (free
battery capacity (e.g. the Nissan Leaf parking, access to bus lanes, etc.).
30 kWh battery: 3,000 USD).
France
• No-claims bonus model based on CO 2 • Locally, exemption from paying tolls and
emitted per km: €6,300 no-claims bonus access to restricted traffic lanes.
for EVs with a battery and €1,000 for
plug-in hybrid vehicles, up to €10,000
for EVs with a battery and €3,500 for
Norway
plug-in hybrid vehicles when replacing •E xemption on the purchase tax:
an old diesel vehicle. 11,600 USD. uch more than just protecting
M vehicles) will take time and must be managed
• Tax credit for companies buying electric • E xemption from VAT on EVs with the environment with skill. Otherwise, the European car indus-
cars. a battery (25% of the price of the vehicle Whether it is saving the planet, improving air try could, for example, suffer from the decline
• Exemption from taxes on electric before tax), including for EVs with quality in the cities or reducing the dependence in its sales of fuel-powered vehicles as they
and hydrogen vehicles. a leased battery. Purchase discount on oil without simply transferring this depen- are replaced by EVs imported from China... the
• S tarting in 2017, 50% of the on plug-in hybrid vehicles. dence onto another energy source (e.g. nuclear), Middle Kingdom is driving this market more than
government’s fleet of vehicles is to be • E xemption from road tax, tolls and ferry there are many challenges to overcome that are any other country in order not only to improve
replaced by electric vehicles. charges. of utmost importance for governments. However, the air quality of its cities, but also to impose its
• Continuation of this policy on EVs with the plan to build up an electrical sector while industrial clout in this sector.
a battery until 2020. another is dismantled (i.e. the fuel-powered
• Since 2016, the free parking measures for
electric vehicles have been managed by
the town halls.
16 17ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
tricity itself. Although there are certain avenues of technology could revolutionise EVs in the next five
research and technical solutions, the progress will years. For a greatly reduced cost, the range would
only be worthwhile if it is shared by all. In other more than double, and the charging time would be
words, if the improvements in batteries do not trans- limited to just a few minutes. The prospect of an
late into prohibitive and unaffordable costs for the electric car that is more practical and more com-
ordinary motorist. petitive than any other engine.
I nnovating to make electricity
the best solution
The sector is becoming more organised, research
efforts are accelerating, and partnerships are for-
ming between manufacturers and specialists in The new generations of hydrogen fuel cells
battery chemistry or recycling. It looks as if the are often put forward as the future of the
gamble is paying off. Despite the improvements electric vehicle. Although the number of
made in terms of range, charging speed, safety models could be counted on one hand and
and durability, the cost of batteries has been fal- the hydrogen fuel cell distribution network
ling for several years now. The scheduled increase is still in its infancy, this technology offers
in volumes would indicate that there is a good
AN UNAVOIDABLE ENTERPRISE
great promise with a recharging time of 3 to
chance prices will drop further (Fig. 7 and Fig. 8). 5 minutes and a range of 700 km.
Better yet, the new so-called solid-state battery
FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Cost of lithium-ion batteries per kilowatt hour
F or an increasing number of countries and cities, the days of the fuel- Fig. 7 Source: Bloomberg
powered vehicle are numbered. The Netherlands in 2030, Scotland in 2032,
France in 2040 and Paris 10 years before that.
$1,200
A choice that is disappearing China, etc.), colossal R&D investments have been
All over the world, there are already a large num- agreed and new dedicated production capacities
ber of low-emission zones with restricted access have been installed.
$1,000
to petrol and diesel vehicles. Mandatory quotas on
Current Estimate
EV sales have been in place for a long time in the I ncreased range, but it comes $800
United States and will be implemented next year at a price
in China. If you add CO2 reduction standards, which The technical and marketing challenges are as
are becoming increasingly draconian, manufactu- important as the environmental and industrial
$600
rers have no choice but to offer EVs. issues. To win over customers, the EV market needs
batteries that can deliver an adequate range and $400
Changing programmes be recharged as quickly as possible. Not only must
With a varying degree of celerity and intensity, they be able to provide for 90% of everyday needs,
and sometimes only to protect brand image, all limited to a dozen miles or so, but also for the
$200
manufacturers have begun to develop specific pro- rare long journeys, which are intimately associated
grammes. Brands have been created (e.g. Polestar with what motorists expect of a “real“ car. However, $0
for Volvo, EQ for Mercedes, Sol for Volkswagen in the problem of electricity storage is as old as elec-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
18 19ELECTRIC VEHICLE: POSITIVE VIBES
2019
Annual demand for electric vehicle battery power Unstoppable growth There is therefore still significant growth potential
Fig. 8 In gigawatt-hour In 2017, EV sales reached 1.2 million units wor- to recoup the investments made by the manufactu-
ldwide, i.e. an increase of 60% in 2016 (Fig. 9). rers in developing the EV. Because the manufactu-
Source: Bloomberg
However, this figure represents only 1.5% of new rers’ objectives in terms of sales volumes are huge.
car sales. These sales are also concentrated in Although, in the past, the announcements and pro-
certain geographical areas. 8 countries (China, United jects of manufacturers have not always come to
800
States, Japan, Norway, United Kingdom, France, fruition, it would appear that the current impetus
600 Germany and Sweden) account for 90% of global is irreversible. As we progress from a niche solution
sales. China dominates the market with 600,000 units, to its development for mainstream use, the current
80% of which are electric vehicles and 20% are and future perception of EVs by motorists and their
500
plug-in hybrid vehicles. expectations becomes even more crucial.
400
300
200
150
85 100
45 50 63
20 25 30 35 40
0 5 10 15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
MANUFACTURERS’ DECLARED OBJECTIVES IN TERMS
OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE VOLUMES – 2017
100,000 EV sales in 2017
Fleet of electric cars in the world
Fig. 9 In thousands
15 to 25% of BMW group sales by 2025
BMW
Source: AIE
30,000 annual EV sales by 2017
3,109
1,980 1,129 Chevrolet (GM)
Chinese manufacturers 4.52 million annual EV sales by 2020
Daimler 100,000 annual EV sales by 2020
Battery electric car
Ford 13 new EV models by 2020
Rechargeable hybrid car
1,982
Two-thirds of sales in 2030 will be electric vehicles (including
1,240 742
Total number
hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and “fuel cell“ vehicles)
Honda
1,239
Renault–Nissan 1.5 million electric vehicles sold in 2020 (total sales)
750 489
500,000 annual EV sales within 2 years
1 million annual EV sales by 2020
704 Tesla
400 304
2 to 3 million annual EV sales by 2025
381
179 220 161
Volkswagen
1 million electric vehicles sold in 2025 (total sales)
61 150 29
2 2 3 5 7 14
2 0 2 0 3 0 5 0 7 0 14 0
60 1 Volvo
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20 212019
2
A POTENTIAL AND
SOME QUESTION MARKS
Cars are the most durable and most expensive consumer goods.
Purchasing a vehicle is therefore a significant act. Not only do
the environmental and macroeconomic issues run very deep, but
certain conditions and criteria must also be fulfilled in the eyes of
the motorists for them to be won over. The electric vehicle is no
exception to these rules. There’s no denying that the technology
breaks with the past, yet it remains, first and foremost, a vehicle.
Despite the fact that there is an emotional aspect to the act of
purchasing, buying a car essentially boils down to the need for
mobility. So, in order to determine the potential and future of
the electric vehicle, it is necessary to check whether its different
characteristics are compatible with the expectations of motorists.
23A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
RANGE, What are all the reasons why you could not choose a fully electric vehicle
Fig. 11 if you were buying a car?
In %, several possible answers
A KEY PRODUCT FEATURE Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
The range It’s too expensive I am not equipped
A
It’s takes too long
t present, the limited range is the main weakness of the electric vehicle is too short
to recharge
The range
is too short
It’s too expensive to recharge the
battery
and an undeniable obstacle to it gaining the acceptance of households.
49% 60% 41% 41% 49% 38%
Short-term vision Always going further
83% of those who replied claimed this limitation to The short range appears in the top 3 reasons ES NW US
be a feature of the electric vehicle, with the Ger- why those who replied would not buy an EV. This
FR DE UK BE IT PT JP CN
mans being the most inclined to think this (93%) weakness was pointed out by 42% of the sample
and the Turks being the least likely to believe this, in (Fig. 11). 57% correctly estimate the range to
The range of
It’s too expensive
relative terms (69%) (Fig. 10). This feature supports be between 100 and 300 km. With the excep-
available models It’s too expensive
The range is too narrow to I am not equipped
the image of a vehicle that is reserved for drivers tion of the Tesla models, which boast a range of
is too short compare the offers to recharge the I prefer a hybrid
battery
making short trips for 70% of those who responded. 500 km, most electric vehicles on the European
vehicle
Once again, the Germans are the most likely to say market fall within this range. For example, the 41% 70% 41% 29% 63% 25%
so (86%), while the Portuguese are far from sharing Citroën C-Zero, the Renault ZOE ZE 22 kWh and the
this point of view (59%). Volkswagen e-Golf 7 respectively have a manu-
facturer’s range of 150 km, 210 km and 300 km. ZA MX BR
It’s too expensive
I am not equipped
In your opinion, is the limited range apt or inapt to recharge the It’s takes too long
Fig. 10 when describing the features of fully electric vehicles? battery
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
to recharge
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Average over 16 countries 83%
39% 66% 35%
93% PL TR
91% 90% 90% 90%
87%
84% 83% 84%
82%
80% 80%
78% 77% MOTORIST
74%
QUOTES
What’s more, motorists are well aware of the
69%
difference between the declared range and the
actual range. This difference is due to the style
”It’s scary to think that on leaving a city, you
of driving, the use of comfort features such as
get 300 km and then, nothing. If you are off the
beaten track, where can you recharge?”
the air conditioning, heating, radio and especially
the weather – battery life is drastically reduced
”Driving with the heating switched off at a
during periods of extreme cold.
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN temperature of -9°C, or reducing the range by
40 km because the heating, ventilation, lights
and wipers are on.”
24 25A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
In theory, battery life should not be an obstacle is therefore attributable to psychological factors lways being able to recharge
A the cost of installing a domestic charging station is
because 86% of those who replied cover less than more than functional features. The reluctance to the batteries borne by the motorist. In France, the price of such
100 km per day. While an electric vehicle may be embrace the electric vehicle will remain strong as Given the battery life limitations, the need to have a device fluctuates between €1,000 to €2,000, with
suitable for most of these motorists, the limit on the long as there is no significant improvement in bat- regular access to a charging station is important. a tax credit of 30%.
range, the journey planning, battery charge mana- tery life. 40% of motorists claim that they would only 88% of those who replied associate electric vehicle
gement and anxiety about running out of charge be ready to buy an electric vehicle when the range use with the need to have access to a charging
outweigh the benefits for many users. The barrier exceeds 400 km (Fig. 12). point at home or at work (Fig. 13). For many, the
only solution to this limitation is to get some work
done on your home and install a compatible char-
ging socket with the corresponding extra cost.
What minimum range would you find acceptable in order to buy a fully electric vehicle? Indeed, this aspect comes up in Spain, Norway, MOTORIST
Fig. 12 In % United States, Brazil, Poland and Turkey as an
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem obstacle to buying an electric vehicle. QUOTES
15 14 Less than 100 km Between 100 and 199 km But, as 82% of those who responded have a parking
space in a private or sheltered space, access to a
25 “I have no way of charging my vehicle where
15
charging point may therefore technically not be an
I live because I don’t have a basement.
10 17 Between 200 and 299 km Between 300 and 399 km
It’s a city car that is not made for people
obstacle to using an electric vehicle. That being said,
5
Between 400 and 499 km 500 km or more
who live in the city.“
Average over 16 countries
You would not be ready to buy it
Is the necessity to have a charging point at home or at work apt or inapt in describing
14 38 19 38 19 10 16 14 32 Fig. 13 the characteristics of fully electric vehicles?
11
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
10 10 17
8 24 9 26 13
21 10 5 21
4 4 Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
1 1 2 4 Average over 16 countries 88%
FR DE UK BE
92% 92%
16 15 18 7 16 14 11 20
91% 91% 90% 91%
19 12 41 13 26 88% 87%
89%
88% 89%
15 12 86% 86%
16 10 9 11 27 84%
11 7 12 12 16
8 6 80%
1 76%
IT ES PT NW
14 13 15 15 14 20 7
18 14 18 26 30
22 15 15
29 13
14 9 20 9
13 8 14
5 3 2 4
PL US JP ZA
15 15 24 18 19 15 13 18 19
15 29 9 19 22
20 19 16
11 14 10
9 FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
4 9 6 8 9 4 8
TR MX BR CN
26 27A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
Motorists expect better from the offer provided by be standardised in 2014 in Europe with a Euro- Would you say there are enough public charging stations for electric vehicles
charging stations on public roads: 76% of those who pean standard that trims the choice down to the Fig. 14 on the roads?
responded consider the current infrastructures to so-called type 2 terminals. In %, Yes: total of the “Strongly agree” and “Agree” answers,
No: total of the “Disagree” and “Strongly disagree” answers
be very inadequate (Fig. 14), and 60% believe that
the stations are not in the right locations (Fig. 15).
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Norway, the champion of the electric car, is a case Yes No Average over 16 countries 24% | 76%
in point. The country is actually overwhelmed
by the success of its incentive measures. In Oslo,
86 84 83
MOTORIST 81 82 82
the 1,300 charging points are no longer sufficient
78 78
QUOTES
76
to meet the needs of some 80,000 electric and
71 71 72 72
69 68
rechargeable hybrid cars on the roads. 59
”In terms of the charging stations, work still
Planning and optimising long journeys where needs to be done. I was sent to a charging point
the battery needs recharging, can sometimes and it was not the right one.” 41
prove difficult due to incompatibilities between
the socket and the charging cable. In order to
”If they can produce an electric car that will 29
31 29
32
28 28
do 500 km without stopping and that can be
simplify charging systems, the sockets began to
24
22 22
recharged in a quarter of an hour, I will take it.” 19 18 18 17
16
14
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
Would you say that the public charging stations for electric vehicles available
Fig. 15 on the roads are in the correct locations?
In %, Yes: total of the “Strongly agree” and “Agree” answers,
No: total of the “Disagree” and “Strongly disagree” answers
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Yes No Average over 16 countries 40% | 60%
74 73
69
66 64 64 64
60 58
56 54 56 55
52 50 50 50 50
48
44 46 44
40 42
36 36 36
31 34 32
26 27
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
28 29A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
Is a long battery charging time apt or inapt when describing Saving time been inconceivable a few years ago, it is now being
Fig. 16 the characteristics of fully electric vehicles? Whether at home or in a public space, the issue considered possible. While recharging a battery to
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers of the battery charging time is paramount. 75% of 80% takes nearly 10 hours at home, this time drops
those who replied associate the electric vehicle significantly when using the public charging sta-
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem Average over 16 countries 75%
with a long battery charging time (Fig. 16) and 70% tions. The massive deployment of “fast charge“
87% demand a charging time of less than 45 minutes stations in the coming years will satisfy the most
to be interested in an electric vehicle (Fig. 17). reluctant motorists by delivering an 80% charge
85%
83%
Although this level of performance would have in just 30 minutes.
82%
81%
78% 79%
76%
73% 74% 73%
68% 69%
What is the minimum fast battery charging time on the public roads or at a motorway
64% 63% Fig. 17 service station that you would require during a long-distance journey to be interested
60% in an electric vehicle?
In %
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Less than 15 mins Between 15 and 30 mins
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN 32 17
10
4 Between 30 and 45 mins Between 45 mins and 1 hr
20 3
13 Between 1 hr and 1 hr 30 mins More than 1 hr 30 mins
Average over 16 countries
You would not be interested
29 16 11 33 17 16 10 29 16 10
3 10 29 5 4
2 1 2
20 2 3
19 21 15 22 20
17 17
FR DE UK BE
36 16 34 42 15 8
14 12 28 3
12 7 7 4
4 30 4 25 2
23 2 3 2 19 22
8 8 11
IT ES PT NW
41 16 15 11 23 12 32 19
12 22 4 8 8
4 5
3 3 7
26 31 5
17 2 19 18 19
9 8
PL US JP ZA
21 35 19 38 17 26
33 12 14 12 35 15
6 7 5 5
16 5 5 17 6 1
18 11
7 2 5 7
TR MX BR CN
30 31A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
EVs ARE FOR THE CITY! In your opinion, is the statement “you can avoid the urban restrictions imposed on vehicles
Fig. 19 (tolls, traffic restrictions in the city centre, alternating traffic, paid parking, etc.)“,
apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
T he electric vehicle has several advantages that make it suitable for
city motorists.
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Average over 16 countries 65%
86%
would expect, the Norwegians are the least likely
84%
The ultimate city car
Indeed, this is the opinion of 68% of those who to agree with this statement (64%). Even though
81%
78%
replied (Fig. 18). 65% agree that EVs avoid the pro- manufacturers have rushed to take advantage of the
blems associated with car use in cities (Fig. 19). market potential, the models sold in Norway are
73%
70% 69%
This percentage is even higher in countries where the same as those offered in the rest of Europe. It
68%
66%
there are heavy traffic restrictions on fuel-powered would therefore seem that motorists become less 61%
vehicles: 81% in China, 86% in Italy, 84% in Spain, demanding when they experience EV use. Contrary
78% in Mexico, 70% in Belgium, 68% in the United to what most of those who replied seem to think,
56%
Kingdom and 66% in France. The electric vehicle there is a relatively wide variety of electric vehicle
51% 50% 51%
49%
appears to be an effective solution to reducing the models available. The European (Renault, Peugeot, 45%
noise generated by road traffic, with 92% of those BMW, Volkswagen, Smart, etc.), Japanese (Nissan,
who responded endorsing the silence of electric Mitsubishi, etc.), South Korean (Hyundai, Kia, etc.),
vehicles. Chinese (Baic, BYD, Zhidou, Byton, Kandi, etc.) and
American brands (Tesla, Ford, etc.) cover the seg-
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
A flawed offer? ments from the small city car to the utility vehicle,
But although EVs would appear to be destined for including saloons and MPVs. However, the most
great things in the city, the offer still needs to be recent models, although theoretically available,
appealing. 86% of those who replied claim that there usually require a long or very long waiting time In your opinion, is the statement “the range of available models is still small“,
are still too few models available (Fig. 20). As you before delivery.
Fig. 20 apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
In your opinion, are EVs only for people who live in big cities? Average over 16 countries 86%
Fig. 18 In %, total of the “Strongly agree” and “Agree” answers
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
92%
91%
89% 90% 89%
87% 89% 87%
87% 87% 86%
86% Average over 16 countries 68% 85%
84%
85%
83% 80%
74%
69% 69% 70%
68% 67%
66% 64%
65% 64%
62% 62% 63%
59%
54%
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
32 33A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
PORTRAIT OF AN E-MOTORIST A LACK OF COMPETITIVENESS
G iven its specific features, the EV is technically suited to the driving habits of
a large number of motorists. To be fully embraced, there still remains one
obstacle to be overcome, i.e. competitiveness Most households will only opt for
More
the electrical solution if it is financially advantageous.
male
urchase price that is deemed
P the strong financial incentives they receive for
43% of men more expensive the purchase of an electric vehicle. Yet China and
Mostly aged
want to buy an electric For 86% of those who responded, an electric vehicle Norway are not the only countries to offer such
vehicle in the next between costs more to buy than its fuel-powered equivalent financial incentives. But surprisingly, 49% of those
5 years, compared to 25 and 34 (Fig. 21). This is actually true, given that an elec- who responded do not know if subsidies or incen-
35% of women tric vehicle is still generally more expensive than a tives to buy an electric vehicle are available in
years
fuel-powered vehicle, mainly due to the cost of the their country, and only 32% say yes (Fig. 23). With
51% of those battery. For motorists, this is the number 1 argument 65% and 55% respectively of those who responded
who replied in this age
for not wanting to buy an electric vehicle, and this declaring that they are aware of the financial
group want to buy an
electric vehicle in the next applies in the 16 countries surveyed (Fig. 22). assistance available for the purchase of an elec-
5 years, compared to tric vehicle, the Chinese and French believe they
44% of 18-24 year olds, Regarding this issue, the Chinese and Norwegians are properly informed, reflecting the commitment
42% of 35-54 year olds and stand out somewhat (65% and 64%). Their more of their governments to communicate widely on
29% of those aged
moderate viewpoint is probably influenced by this subject.
Mostly 55 and over
city-dwellers
In your opinion, is the statement “it is more expensive to buy“, apt or inapt
Fig. 21 when describing fully electric vehicles?
48% of people living in In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
cities with a population of Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
more than 100,000 want to
Average over 16 countries 86%
buy an electric vehicle in the
next 5 years, compared to 36%
Who cover the
of those who live in cities with
following distances, 93% 92%
91% 91% 91% 91% 91%
less than 100,000 inhabitants
on average: 90%
60 km every day
87% 87% 87% 88%
and 29% in rural areas
86%
18,400 km annually
84%
12 long journeys of more
than 400 km in the year
64% 65%
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
34 35A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
What are all the reasons why you could not choose a fully electric vehicle To your knowledge, are there any subsidies or incentives to buy an electric vehicle
Fig. 22 if you were buying a car? Fig. 23 (cash reward for replacing an old vehicle, tax credit or other non-financial measures
In %, several possible answers such as free parking, access to reserved lanes)?
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem In %
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
The range is too It’s too expensive I am not equipped
short It’s takes too long The range is too It’s too expensive to recharge the
to recharge short
Yes No You don’t know
battery
Average over 16 countries 32% | 19% | 49%
49% 60% 41% 41% 49% 38% 65
63
58
56 56
55 54 55
FR DE UK BE IT PT JP CN ES NW US
52
50
48 49 48
46 47 46
The range of
It’s too expensive
available models is It’s too expensive
The range is too too narrow to I am not equipped 38
short compare the offers to recharge the I prefer a hybrid 35
33 34
battery 33 32
vehicle 31 31
28 28 28
26 27
27 27
26
41% 70% 41% 29% 63% 25% 23 24 23
21
18 19 18 18 17 17
15
14 14
ZA MX BR
10
9 8
It’s too expensive
I am not equipped
to recharge the It’s takes too long
battery to recharge
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
39% 66% 35%
PL TR unning costs that are more
R
appealing
But the cost of running an EV restores the finan-
cial balance. Whether it is installing a charging MOTORIST
station at home (if needed), maintenance, energy, QUOTES
insurance or the battery rental (if needed), all the
costs are much lower than those of an equivalent
fuel-powered vehicle. Given that electricity is chea- ”There’s no comparison when it comes to the
per than fossil fuels, the biggest saving comes from
running costs of an electric vehicle. I use the
the energy supply. Motorists are well aware of this
vehicle and recharge it for nothing, all from
financial benefit. 68% claim that an electric vehicle
my own home.”
requires less maintenance than a fuel-powered
vehicle (Fig. 24) and 77% deem that it is economi-
cal to run (Fig. 25).
36 37A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
In your opinion, is the statement “it requires less maintenance than a fuel-powered vehicle The need for financial assistance Financial incentives are therefore essential to
Fig. 24 (petrol or diesel)“, apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles? However, even this advantage in using an EV is not reduce the purchase price and the difference in the
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers enough to win over motorists for good. The purchase total cost of ownership (TCO) between electric and
price, which is deemed to be prohibitively high, conventional cars. They are particularly critical in
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Average over 16 countries 68% outweighs all the other arguments. When all the the current phase of the technology’s deployment
costs associated with an EV are taken into account, in order to trigger and facilitate a virtuous circle.
38% find it a bit more expensive and 35% much more A circle based on increased sales, increased produc-
78% expensive (Fig. 26). As a result, 42% of those who tion volumes and improved technology, including
responded would not pay any more to buy an EV battery performance, which will help to reduce the
76% 75%
72% 73%
and only 28% would agree to pay 10% more than financial barriers.
73%
70% 72%
69%
they would for the fuel-powered version (Fig. 27).
66% 66% 67%
64%
58%
56%
54%
In your opinion, if we take into account all the costs (buying and running) and the resale price,
Fig. 26 does an EV now cost more or less than a fuel-powered vehicle (petrol or diesel)?
In %
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
38
Much more expensive A bit more expensive The same price
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
35 17
8
2 A bit cheaper Much cheaper
Average over 16 countries
In your opinion, is the statement “it is economical to run (less maintenance, cheaper 40 36 36 30
Fig. 25 energy)“, apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers 37 17 42 35 21 47 17
20
5 2 5 5
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem 1 2 2
1
FR DE UK BE
Average over 16 countries 77%
47 44 36 29
27
34 33 49 24
14 18 7
87% 86%
4 4 6 13 6
83% 83% 83%
85% 1 2 2
79% IT ES PT NW
76% 77% 77%
30 33 42 32
71% 72% 72%
50 25
69% 22 45 10
17 31 10 27
66% 65% 8 10
3 2 2 3
PL US JP ZA
47 43 43 42 18
9 15 42 20
29 11 35 8
5 6
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN 3 1 1 17 4
TR MX BR CN
38 39A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
How much more would you be prepared to pay to buy an electric vehicle oubt regarding the life expectancy
D capacity, but a significant part of it. Below 75%,
Fig. 27 rather than its fuel-powered version (petrol or diesel)? of batteries they are no longer really suited for use in a vehicle.
In % Once again, we come back to the issue of batte- For a lithium battery, the initial results show a life-
ries that crystallises the problems of the EV. 71% time of about ten years. The manufacturers offer
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
28 of motorists believe that their lifetime is too short a guarantee of about 5 years for motorists who
(Fig. 28). 27% believe that they last 3-4 years, 20% wish to buy them (8 years at Tesla). For those who
Less than 10 % Between 10 and
42 Nothing
claim that they last 5-10 years and only 4% claim prefer to hire a vehicle, the manufacturers replace
24 more 30 % more
that they last beyond the age of 10 years (Fig. 29). them when they reach the 70% threshold. Although
4 Between 30 and More than 50 %
2 50 % more more
Although batteries do indeed lose capacity, it is this provides some security, it comes at a cost for
gradual. After completing a set number of charging those who are concerned about the obsolescence
Average over 16 countries
and discharging cycles, they do not lose all of their of their battery.
28 26 21 23
49 54
18 26 18 52 20
44 3 In your opinion, is the statement “the battery life is too short“ apt or inapt
3 2 4
Fig. 28 when describing the characteristics of fully electric vehicles?
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
2 2 3 2
FR DE UK BE Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
35 33 22
30 49 66 14
32 38 26 22
14
2 4 5
1 3 2 1
IT ES PT NW
Average over 16 countries 71%
28 24 28 28
29 18 46 30
46 19 86%
40 3 7 34 6 85%
6
1 5 1 2 81%
79% 78%
76%
PL US JP ZA
73%
71% 70%
68% 68%
67%
32 32 32 38 64% 65%
40 37 61%
38 24 38 22
4 21 6 25 6 1 54%
3 2 1 1
TR MX BR CN
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
40 41A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
In your opinion, what is the lifetime of a battery?
Fig. 29 In %
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
17 27
3 You don’t know Less than one Between 1 and 2 years
28 20
Between 3 and Between 5 and
4 4 years 10 years More than 10 years
Average over 16 countries
2
15 30 14 35 4 14 112 29
1 23
42 39
33 18 25 23 14 18
2 2 3 2
FR DE UK BE
1 16 215 3 8 13
27 27 2 14 25
34 43 29
20 35 18 31 23
which was marketed in early 2017, offers almost
2 2 5 9
sed batteries can be sold,
U
IT ES PT NW but to who and at what price? twice the range. This has the effect of making the
When adopting a new technology, it is reassuring first models less attractive.
to be able to estimate the residual value of your
vehicle and sell it easily. However 84% of those In order to reassure potential buyers, manufacturers
18 33 5 17 25 25 28
3 21 17
who responded believe that we cannot yet fore- are creating specific brands or offers that are entirely
33 5
18 39 27
25 16 22 17
3 3 8 4 see the development of the second-hand market dedicated to the resale of a UEV (used electric vehicle),
over time, hence their second-hand value (Fig. 30). such as the Nissan Club and the Renault ZE Occasion.
PL US JP ZA Such an assessment is particularly challenging This is to encourage motorists to take the plunge by
because about a third of the value resides in the partially avoiding the high price of a new EV while
38 battery whose capacity is gradually decreasing and being able to count on the manufacturer’s brands to
because there are so few EVs on the market. 74% guarantee the reliability of their used vehicle.
25 29 30 29 28 26
18
of the motorists surveyed agree about this scarcity
5 21 5 4 20 24
19 3
(Fig. 31). Unsurprisingly, the Norwegians stand out Car leasing, which has been around for a long time
16 4 17
15 2 5 12 5
in this respect (49%) because the greater maturity of in the English-speaking countries and is becoming
the local market has created a second-hand market increasingly popular elsewhere, also offers a solution
TR MX BR CN
for EVs earlier than elsewhere. to the anxiety surrounding battery durability. Indeed,
by renting an EV or its battery for 3 or 4 years as is
What’s more, the extremely fast progress being often the case, the risk and worry of driving long
made on new models is having the effect of rapidly distances with an outdated battery can be managed
reducing the value of electric vehicles, which is effectively. Similarly, because it is negotiated before-
generating additional uncertainty among future hand, the uncertainty surrounding the residual value
buyers. As an example, the latest generation ZOE, of the battery disappears.
42 43A POTENTIAL AND SOME QUESTION MARKS
2019
In your opinion, is the statement “we do not know the resale value of the vehicles given
Fig. 30 that we don’t know how the second-hand market will develop over time“, apt or in apt
when describing fully electric vehicles?
THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE FOR ALL THOSE
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers WHO RESPONDED
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Average over 16 countries 84%
It is… It is not…
Silent A second vehicle
90%
89%
87% 87% 86% 86%
86%
81% 81% 81% 81% 81%
83% 83%
Eco-friendly Sophisticated
Requires access to a charging station Reserved for car sharing
80%
76%
Modern Dangerous
More expensive to purchase A trend
Few models available A woman’s car
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
In your opinion, is the statement “there are no second-hand vehicles available“,
Fig. 31 apt or inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?
In %, total of the “Very apt” and “Apt” answers
Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem
Average over 16 countries 74%
86%
80% 81% 81% 80%
80% 79%
77%
74% 75% 74%
71%
69%
62% 62%
51%
FR DE UK BE IT ES PT NW PL US JP ZA TR MX BR CN
44 45You can also read
