20 CHARTS FOR 2020 NEI MARKET OUTLOOK - NEI 2020 MARKET OUTLOOK - NEI Investments
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Great global uncertainty leads to… record high stock prices? Opinions as of December 13, 2019 It’s been said many times that “markets hate our global sub-advisors. In one form or another, the As we look forward to the 2020s, we expect climate uncertainty.” Well, not in 2019. charts we’ve included speak to the following main points: change and other responsible investing themes to dominate the financial headlines. These themes will In fact, data to November 30 show the S&P 500 hit 19 • We do not expect a global recession as central become more important to our political, regulatory and new highs in 2019 and is on track to end the year with a banks maintain accommodative policies, with room financial systems, creating opportunity for those willing total return of roughly 28% in U.S. dollar terms. The for governments to add fiscal stimulus if needed. to adapt and risks for those who are not. As Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite has also been notching record leader in responsible investing, we welcome these highs as it closes in on a year-to-date total return of 22%. • Stocks are likely to rise further, but we don’t changes and believe the 2020s will be a decade of true And it’s not just equities powering ahead. Bonds have expect next year’s returns to be as impressive as impact, where responsible investors can help improve also had a strong year, with some markets delivering last year’s. the world’s environmental and social conditions in double-digit returns (as well as negative yields…). meaningful ways. • Longer term, we expect equity leadership to rotate All this at a time of record policy uncertainty; the U.S.- out of the U.S. and into international and emerging China trade war; the slowest global economic growth markets, but we need more concrete evidence the since the Great Recession; the neverending saga known global economy is rebounding before taking a as Brexit; and a U.S. president facing impeachment and stronger stance. an election. And now we can finally add this: a growing acknowledgement of the risk of climate change to the • Given global uncertainties, bonds will continue to financial system, courtesy of global central banks. be an important part of portfolios, but expect lower returns than what we got in 2019. So, what’s next? • We expect the policy response to climate change to rise ever higher on the priority list of global financial To help you prepare for client conversations about what leaders, which will in turn find its way into asset John Bai, CFA could be in store for markets next year, we offer 20 prices, with both positive and negative impacts. VP and Chief Investment Officer charts for 2020, assembled in collaboration with many of NEI Investments 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 2
2019: A strong year for most asset classes Stocks and bonds performed exceptionally well in 2019. Many indices closed not just at or near the highest level of the year, but at or near their highest levels on record. YTD performance of 20 asset classes 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Gold International Equity US HY Bonds Crude Oil (WTI) Emerging Market Equity US Large Cap Equity Developed Market Equity USD (vs. CAD) EUR (vs. CAD) Canadian Large Cap Equity Global Equity (Growth) Commodities (BoC Index) USD (Trade Weight) Global Equity (Value) US IG Bonds Canadian Cash US Small Cap Equity Canadian IG Bonds Canadian Small Cap Equity Global IG Bonds EQUITIES FIXED INCOME COMMODITIES CURRENCIES Source: Bloomberg and Morningstar, data as of November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 3
The economic backdrop While we do not see recession on the horizon, we do expect continued slower global growth in 2020 Downside risks remain elevated as uncertainty abounds 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 4
Secular trends point to slower growth ahead in developed economies Shrinking workforce + declining productivity growth = lower potential growth across developed economies. Expect this to result in lower equity returns and the ongoing suppression of bond yields. Working age population as % of total population Annual change in GDP per hour worked 70% 3.0% 2.5% 68% 2.0% 66% 1.5% 1.0% 64% 0.5% 62% 0.0% 60% -0.5% 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US Canada Euro Area Japan US All OECD 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2014 2014-2018 Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, data accessed November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 5
Global growth increasingly driven by emerging economies The growth and maturation of emerging economies will present ever-increasing investment opportunities outside North America. World economy breakdown • Emerging economies made 100% up only 25% of the world’s economy in 1980 • By the end of 2019, emerging 75% economies are expected to make up 40% of world GDP 50% 25% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies Source: International Monetary Fund, data accessed November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 6
Emerging economies expected to grow at twice the pace of developed economies Over the next year, the anticipated economic rebound in emerging economies could lead to outperformance of EM equities, debt and currencies. World DM EM • Economic growth likely to slow further for developed economies in 2020 4.9 • Emerging economies 3.8 expected to rebound slightly 4.4 4.2 3.2 3.2 in 2020 • Gap between developed and emerging markets is expected 2.2 to widen, though downside 1.7 risks continue to dominate 1.4 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Source: Amundi Research forecast, data as of November 4, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 7
U.S. economic growth driven by strong consumer spending Despite the presence of global macro headwinds, a strong domestic economy will likely prevent a U.S.-led recession in 2020. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index • Consumer confidence is an 120 100 important leading indicator, 90 used to estimate future 80 consumption behaviour 100 70 • Confidence tends to stem from job security and wage 60 satisfaction, providing insight 80 50 into the labour market 40 30 60 20 10 40 0 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 U.S. Recession Source: Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment © [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, November 19, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 8
Uptick in key leading indicator a sign of hope Some Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indices may have bottomed in September 2019, with a continued rebound acting as a potential driver of further equity upside. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indices • Germany and the larger 56 eurozone showing a notable 55 bounce-back • China, emerging markets 54 rising since June 2019 53 • Developed markets overall still headed lower – but for 52 how long? 51 50 49 48 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Developed Markets US Eurozone Germany Emerging Markets China Expansion/contraction Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 9
Policy uncertainty at record high, driven by trade tensions The abatement or escalation of historically high trade tensions can have a significant impact on markets on a day-to-day basis. U.S. Categorical Policy Uncertainty Index • Current concern over trade 2,000 Monetary policy policy is having a greater impact 1,800 Fiscal Policy on overall sentiment than any 1,600 National security other factor in recent past Trade policy • Risk of U.S./China trade tension 1,400 Sovereign debt, currency crises spreading to other regions – 1,200 U.S. Recession notably Europe and Japan – has 1,000 hurt business and investor sentiment 800 600 400 200 0 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Source: “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty” by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 10 10
Monetary and fiscal policy Central banks have responded to slowing growth by lowering interest rates and increasing balance sheets Additional stimulus from fiscal policy is available if needed Central banks are increasingly turning their attention to climate change as a key risk to financial stability 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 11 11
U.S. Fed rate cuts may neutralize once-reliable recession indicator Proactiveness of U.S. central bank is another reassuring sign that a recession may not come just yet. U.S. yield curve, Federal Reserve rate, and recessions • Inverted yield curve (dark blue 400bps line falling below orange line) 20% has consistently preceded past 300bps recessions 200bps • Overly tight monetary policy 15% stifles economic growth, and a 100bps closer look reveals the Fed has raised rates in the lead-up to 10% 0bps each yield curve inversion • This time, the Fed has cut rates -100bps 5% prior to August 2019 yield curve -200bps inversion, preventing a longer and more pronounced period of -300bps 0% inversion. 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 U.S. Recession 2s10s (LHS) Fed Funds Rate (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 12 12
How much lower can central banks go? With rates at rock bottom (and below zero), central banks will have to forego a primary policy tool for combatting crisis conditions like what we saw in 2008. Central bank policy rates • 2019 saw another wave of 9% global central bank easing amid 8% softening economic data and 7% escalating trade uncertainty 6% • Most developed nations 5% already have policy rates below 4% the rate of inflation, meaning majority of policy rates around 3% the world are actually negative 2% in real terms 1% 0% -1% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Eurozone Australia Canada Japan South Korea New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland UK US China Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 13 13
New ECB president may help shift focus to fiscal policy in eurozone Christine Lagarde may attempt to improve coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. Public investment as % of GDP • Christine Lagarde took over as 6.0 ECB president in November, making the case for investing 5.0 “in a common future that is more productive, more digital 4.0 and greener” • Eurozone austerity measures 3.0 since 2011 have brought down the amount of public investment 2.0 as % of GDP, so this has significant room to grow 1.0 0.0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Germany Ireland Spain France Italy Netherlands Portugal Source: Eurostat, data accessed November 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 14 14
Central banks acting on climate change Almost 50 central banks and regulators have formed Central Banks and Supervisors’ Network for Greening the Financial System, defining best practices in climate risk management. Number of Central Banks that have adopted environmental activities by type 55 The importance of climate-related issues for financial stability and Green network membership monetary policy have become 45 Green lending guidelines or green bond program increasingly clear. This is ESG risk incorporation particularly true for Canada, where 35 resources play a vital role in our economy and where the natural 25 environment is a defining feature of our national identity.” 15 – Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -5 Source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/no-laughing-matter-how-climate-change-is-scaring-central-banks 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 15 15
Bonds We don’t expect double digit returns to repeat in 2020 – we’d likely need a recession for that We emphasize more defensive positioning: • Higher quality investment grade credit • Shorter duration 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 16 16
Core bond yields expected to stay low Yields should stay in a low range as major developed economies continue to experience slow growth next year; expect bond volatility around trade concerns. Inflation – developed economies 10-year bond yields – developed economies 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Canada U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan Target Canada U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan Source: Bloomberg. Inflation data as of October 31, 2019; bond yield data as of November 30, 2019. 2019–2021 projections are based on Bloomberg consensus estimates. Bloomberg consensus estimates for both inflation and bond yields are indicated with dotted lines. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 17 17
Respect credit cycles U.S. firms are more leveraged than ever, but this risk is not currently reflected in credit spreads. U.S. corporate debt versus credit spreads 49 18 • Historically, high yield spreads have been closely 16 47 correlated with an increase in 14 corporate debt 45 12 • Since the 2008 financial crisis, loose monetary policy has 10 43 lowered borrowing costs and 8 encouraged corporations to 41 6 take on more debt 4 39 2 37 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 U.S. Recessions U.S. Nonfinancial corporate debt/GDP (% LHS) U.S. high yield spread (% RHS) Source: Haver Analytics, Ned Davis Research, Bloomberg, QV Investors. Data as of December 1, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 18 18
Stocks We expect equities to outperform bonds over the next year Regionally, we see opportunity in international and emerging market equities From a style perspective, value may be making a comeback 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 19 19
U.S. by far the strongest stock market since 2009 crisis low The longest bull market on record has helped drive the S&P 500 to a gain of more than 300%, while the S&P/TSX Composite, MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Market indices have lagged significantly. Total equity returns for major regions (C$) 350% Canada 300% U.S. 250% International Emerging Markets 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source. Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 20 20
International equities: comparable earnings growth, cheaper valuations While rest of the world has lagged the U.S. in terms of historical equity performance, the fundamentals favour international equities going forward. Equity characteristics: U.S. versus rest of world 101.0% S&P 500 ACWI Ex US 63.0% 23.2x 20.8x 15.9% 17.0x 16.1x 16.5x 10.4x 6.7% 6.7% 0.6% EPS Growth (trailing) EPS Growth (forward) Price/Earnings (trailing) Price/Earnings (forward) Price/Cash Flows Debt/Equity Source: Factset, data as of November 2019. Index shown for comparison purposes only. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 21 21
Lower interest rates supportive of equities Equity risk premiums (ERP) have risen globally versus year-ago levels; ERP around the world suggest equity markets outside the U.S. hold more opportunity. The equity risk premium is the difference between the earnings CANADA ERP Sep 2019: yield and the 10-year U.S. U.K. CHINA ERP Sep 2019: Treasury, representing the “extra” 5.8% ERP Sep 2019: return you receive for owning 7.6% 5.8% equities over bonds. GERMANY U.S. ERP Sep 2019: ERP Sep 2019: JAPAN 8.3% ERP Sep 2019: 4.2% 7.8% BRAZIL ERP Sep 2019: AUSTRALIA 0.8% ERP Sep 2019: > 7% 5% – 7% 5.1% < 5% Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Source: FactSet, MSCI and AB, data as of September 30, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 22 22
Canadian equity dividend yield higher than long bond yield Investors can earn better income from stocks than bonds, but volatility risks are higher with stocks. S&P/TSX dividend yield versus 10-year Govt Canada bond yield • Bond yields and inflation have 20 both been falling on a secular 18 basis since the early 1980’s 16 • The dividend yield on the 14 Canadian stocks have slowly 12 risen over the past twenty years 10 • On a cross-asset class basis, 8 data suggest stocks are likely 6 the better investment from a 4 yield perspective, though full 2 equity valuations plus elevated macro risk warrant a cautious 0 approach Aug-83 Nov-84 Aug-88 Nov-89 Aug-93 Nov-94 Aug-98 Nov-99 Aug-03 Nov-04 Aug-08 Nov-09 Aug-13 Nov-14 Aug-18 Nov-19 May-82 May-87 May-92 May-97 May-02 May-07 May-12 May-17 Feb-81 Feb-86 Feb-91 Feb-96 Feb-01 Feb-06 Feb-11 Feb-16 TSX Dividend Yield Canada Long Bond Yield Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 23 23
Value stocks underperformance versus growth stocks near record levels Value stocks displaying compelling risk/reward characteristics Rolling 10-year total return difference: FAMA-French HML (value vs growth) • Relative to growth, value 14% is experiencing its weakest 12% performance in nearly 8 decades 10% • Underperformance gap 8% between value and growth exceeds that of the tech 6% bubble and is second only to 4% the Great Depression 2% • Opportunities to find quality and value have opened up in 0% Tech Bubble industrials, financials and -2% energy sectors Great Depression Recently -4% 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: Kenneth French, QV Investors, Data as of December 31, 2018: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 24 24
The global plastics problem – an opportunity for the responsible investor From 1950 to 2015, plastic waste production has soared across major sectors. Other Textiles The transition to a more sustainable economy presents Primary Plastic Waste Generation (in Mt) Industrial Machinery Consumer & Institutional Products opportunities for investors and Electrical/Electronic risks to companies that choose Building & Construction to ignore strong trends in Transportation changing consumer preferences Packaging for more sustainable products, advances in technology and innovation, changing global regulations, and the impact of larger societal factors.” Source: Cosmos Magazine, “Global plastic waste totals 4.9 billion tonnes,” July 20, 2017: https://cosmosmagazine.com/society/global-plastic-waste-totals-4-9-billion-tonnes; GEYER, JAMBECK, LAW, ‘SCIENCE ADVANCES’, JULY 2017. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 25 25
The “first corporate casualty of climate change” California-based utility company PG&E named the “first corporate casualty of climate change” by The Wall Street Journal after it sought bankruptcy protection in January 2019. Stock Price of PG&E • PG&E named the “first 80 corporate casualty of climate California wildfires of late 2017 among 70 most damaging on record change” by The Wall Street Journal 60 • After facing more than US$30 billion in liabilities 50 related to wildfires, PG&E 40 sought bankruptcy protection PG&E faces deeper scrutiny over in January 2019 30 responsibility for 2017/2018 wildfires • The utility company has been 20 found responsible for the destruction of hundreds of 10 PG&E seeks bankruptcy protection acres of land in Jan 2019 0 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of November 27, 2019. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 26 26
Too few companies reacting to the challenges of climate change The Transition Pathway Initiative says 21% of companies do not disclose enough information to allow investors to understand their exposure to the transition to a low-carbon economy, presenting an opportunity for shareholder engagement. Alignment to Paris Agreement benchmarks by sector 100% 1 1 2 2 2020 should be the year when a 1 1 90% 3 2 strategic focus on climate change 5 80% 4 12 becomes a necessity and those 2 companies who are ahead of the 70% 10 trend should flourish. Investors 4 4 60% can play an important part in this 8 9 50% 9 by engaging with companies to 14 3 facilitate and encourage the 40% 14 transition, particularly in those 30% sectors which continue to lag.” 10 16 20% 3 7 8 10% 2 1 0% 1 1 Airlines Autos Aluminium Cement Paper Steel Electricity Oil & Gas No disclosure Not aligned Paris aligned 2 degrees aligned Below 2 degrees aligned Source: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/tpi/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/TPI-State-of-Transition-Summit-presentation-20190712.pdf 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 27 27
Summary We do not expect a global recession as central banks maintain accommodative policies, with room for governments to add fiscal stimulus if needed. Stocks are likely to rise further, but we don’t expect next year’s returns to be as impressive as last year’s. Longer term, we expect equity leadership to rotate out of the U.S. and into international and emerging markets, but we need more concrete evidence the global economy is rebounding before taking a stronger stance. Given global uncertainties, bonds will continue to be an important part of portfolios, but expect lower returns than in 2019. We expect the policy response to climate change to rise ever higher on the priority list of global financial leaders, which will in turn find its way into asset prices, with both positive and negative impacts. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 28 28
Summary As we look forward to the 2020s, we expect climate change and other responsible investing themes to dominate the financial headlines. These themes will become more important to our political, regulatory and financial systems, creating opportunity for those willing to adapt and risks for those who are not. As Canada’s leader in responsible investing, we welcome these changes and believe the 2020s will be a decade of true impact, where responsible investors can help improve the world’s environmental and social conditions in meaningful ways. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 29 29
The bottom line We remain optimistic the economic cycle will continue to be supportive of stocks over bonds, though as always, we take a balanced approach in our portfolio solutions to insulate investors from ongoing volatility and the potential for a more pronounced downturn. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 30 30
The outlook As we look forward to the 2020s, we expect responsible investing themes to dominate the financial headlines creating opportunity for those who are willing to adapt and risks for those who are not. 2020 NEI 2020 MARKET MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK 31 31
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