"Your Stepping Stone To A Golden Life" - Folsom Chamber of ...
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“Your Stepping Stone To A Golden Life”
HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW THAT IT’S
SEPTEMBER?
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THE CRASH IN MARCH
• 16 days to crash 38%, Oil
collapses
• Best and worst weeks since
1938
• Shelter in place mandates
• Recession inevitable
• Largest weekly unemployment
claims in history
• Parallels to great depression
• 15 days became an eternity
• Unemployment hits 14.7%,
45MM claims
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THE RESPONSE -IS $14 TRILLION OK?
• Fear of the unknown
• Federal Reserve back to ZIRP+$2
Trillion Scalable to 6
• Congress actually acted fast
with $2.3 Trillion + $600 Billion
• Households, Business (Small,
Mid, Large), Hospitals
• $More coming to
States/Cities/Counties,
Hospitals, Education…………
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STRUCTURAL CHANGES
• How we use office space
• Where we live and work
• Telemedicine, Online shopping,
Education, Technology, Tourism,
Air Travel, Restaurants
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WTF??
• Economy sank 5% in Q1, 31.4% in Q2
• Vaccine widely available
• Stock Market Recovers
• Earnings $145 compared to $100, now 205
• Economy back to pre-COVID
• Unemployment at 4% by 2022
• Digital transformation-winners/losers
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ECONOMIC BAROMETER
Unemployment
Retail Sales
Consumer Confidence
Housing Market
US GDP
Consumer Spending
Purchasing Managers Index (Manufacturing/Services)
7
COVID Winners
✓ Etsy ✓ Square
✓ Nvidia ✓ Paypal
✓ FedEx ✓ Amazon
✓ Roku ✓ Netflix
✓ Apple ✓ SalesForce
✓ eBay ✓ Adobe
8
SIZE AND STYLE INDICES: TOTAL RETURNS
MARKETS
Index YTD 3 Mo 6 Mo 12 Mo 3 Yr.^ 5 Yr.^ 10 Yr.^*
S&P 500 15.24% 8.55% 15.24% 40.77% 18.62% 17.62% 14.82%
S&P 500 Growth 14.30% 11.93% 14.30% 41.35% 23.03% 21.80% 17.26%
S&P 500 Value 16.29% 4.99% 16.29% 39.51% 13.09% 12.52% 11.83%
FPO
S&P Midcap 400 17.59% 3.64% 17.59% 53.22% 13.12% 14.27% 12.37%
S&P Midcap 400 Growth 12.28% 3.43% 12.28% 45.42% 14.20% 15.24% 12.61%
S&P Midcap 400 Value 22.97% 3.84% 22.97% 61.40% 11.46% 12.77% 11.84%
S&P SmallCap 600 23.55% 4.50% 23.55% 67.33% 12.14% 15.75% 13.44%
S&P SmallCap 600 Growth 16.48% 3.76% 16.48% 57.44% 13.14% 16.85% 13.89%
S&P SmallCap 600 Value 30.58% 5.17% 30.58% 77.17% 10.71% 14.35% 12.83%
Russell 1000 14.94% 8.54% 14.94% 43.06% 19.11% 17.97% 14.88%
Russell 2000 17.53% 4.29% 17.53% 62.00% 13.46% 16.43% 12.32%
Russell 3000 15.10% 8.24% 15.10% 44.15% 18.68% 17.86% 14.68%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 13.79% 5.08% 13.79% 36.34% 14.99% 16.64% 13.48%
The NASDAQ Composite 12.92% 9.68% 12.92% 45.29% 25.73% 25.85% 19.41%
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Source: Bloomberg. Total returns as of 6/30/21. *As of last month end. ^Annualized returns. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. Indices do not charge management fees or brokerage expenses, and no such fees or expenses were deducted from the performance shown. Indices are unmanaged and investors
cannot invest directly in an index.
Index Definitions: S&P 500 - An unmanaged index of 500 stocks used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. S&P 500 Growth - S&P measures growth stocks using three factors: sales growth, the ratio of earnings change to price, and momentum. Constituents are drawn from the S&P 500 Index. S&P 500 Value - S&P
measures value stocks using three factors: the ratios of book value, earnings, and sales to price. Constituents are drawn from the S&P 500 Index. S&P MidCap 400 - A capitalization-weighted index that tracks the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market. S&P MidCap 400 Growth - S&P measures growth stocks using three factors: sales
growth, the ratio of earnings change to price, and momentum. Constituents are drawn from the S&P MidCap 400 Index. S&P MidCap 400 Value - S&P measures value stocks using three factors: the ratios of book value, earnings, and sales to price. Constituents are drawn from the S&P MidCap 400 Index. S&P SmallCap 600 - A capitalization-
weighted index that tracks U.S. stocks with a small market capitalization. S&P SmallCap 600 Growth - S&P measures growth stocks using three factors: sales growth, the ratio of earnings change to price, and momentum. Constituents are drawn from the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. S&P SmallCap 600 Value - S&P measures value stocks using
three factors: the ratios of book value, earnings, and sales to price. Constituents are drawn from the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. Russell 1000 - Comprised of the largest 1000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It represents the universe of large capitalization stocks from which most active money managers typically select. Russell 2000 -
Comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. Russell 3000 - Comprised of 3,000 large U.S. companies, as determined by market capitalization. It captures approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. Dow Jones Industrial
Average - A price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities. The NASDAQ Composite - A large market-cap-weighted index of more than 2,500 stocks, American depositary receipts (ADRs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs), among others, listed on the NASDAQ
stock exchange.
First Trust Portfolios L.P. | Member SPIC | Member FINRA | 1-800-621-1675 | www.ftportfolios.com 9
S&P 500 INDEX EPS - CURRENT VS. MARCH 31, 2021
MARKETS
CURRENT (6/30/21)
$213
+12%
$191
$140 +36
%
2020 2021E 2022E
3/31/21 $202
+15%
$176
$140 +25%
2020 2021E 2022E
Source: FactSet. 2021-2022 numbers are consensus estimates. For illustrative purposes only. There can be no assurance that any of the projections cited will occur. Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 stocks used to
measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
First Trust Portfolios L.P. | Member SPIC | Member FINRA | 1-800-621-1675 | www.ftportfolios.com 10S&P 500 INDEX: THE LARGEST 5 NAMES
MARKETS
% SHARE OF S&P 500 INDEX
25%
21.9
20% %
15%
10%
5%
0%
'85'86'87'88'89'90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15'16'17'18'19'20'21
TOP 5 MEMBER FIRMS BY WEIGHT IN THE INDEX
Ticker Company Name Weight in S&P 500 Index (6/30/21)
AAPL Apple Inc. 5.91%
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 5.62%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. 4.06%
GOOG/GOOGL Alphabet, Inc. 3.98%
FB Facebook Inc. 2.29%
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet. Data from 1/31/1985 to 6/30/21. References to specific companies or securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any such security, nor should they be assumed profitable. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 stocks used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance.
Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
First Trust Portfolios L.P. | Member SPIC | Member FINRA | 1-800-621-1675 | www.ftportfolios.com 11www.goldenstonewealth.com
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Sacramento Region Financial Conditions Index
www.goldenstonewealth.comRegional Banks – Loans and Deposits
www.goldenstonewealth.comRegional Credit Unions – Loans and Deposits
www.goldenstonewealth.comOwning the future – Megatrends
Driving Returns
Technological Demographics & Rapid Climate change & Emerging global
breakthrough social change urbanization resource scarcity wealth
Robotics & A.I. Genomics I nfras tructure Clean energy China & India
Cybersecurity I mmunotherapy Megacities Electric vehicles New consumers
FinTech Ageing Smart cities Self-driving Digital economy
35“We don’t have to be
smarter than the rest.
We have to be more
disciplined than the rest.”
-WarrenBuffett
36Thank You!
DISCLOSURES
Goldenstone Wealth Management, LLC (“Goldenstone Wealth Management, “ Goldenstone”) is an
independent investment management and advisory firm. Please note that the use of the term “registered
investment adviser” and description of Goldenstone Wealth Management and/or our advisors as
“registered” does not imply a certain level of skill or training. You are encouraged to review our Brochure
and Brochure Supplements for our firm’s associates who advise you for more information on the
qualifications of our firm and our employees. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective
clients where Goldenstone Wealth Management and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt
from licensure. This presentation is solely for informational purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of
future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by
Goldenstone Wealth Management unless a client service agreement is in place.
The information contained in any third-party resource cited herein is not owned or controlled by
Goldenstone. Goldenstone does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any information that may be
found in such resources. Links to any third-party resource are provided as a courtesy for reference only and
are not intended to be, and do not act as, an endorsement by Goldenstone of the third party or any of its
content. The standard information provided in this presentation is for general purposes only and should not
be construed as, or used as a substitute for, financial, investment or professional advice. If you have
questions regarding your financial situation, you should consult your tax, legal, or investment advisor.
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