WORKING PAPER SERIES No. 30 | June 2020
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WORKING PAPER SERIES No. 30 | June 2020 Andreicovici, Ionela | van Lent, Laurence | Nikolaev, Valeri | Zhang, Ruishen Accounting Measurement Intensity TRR 266 Accounting for Transparency Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation): Collaborative Research Center (SFB/TRR) – Project-ID 403041268 – TRR 266 Accounting for Transparency www.accounting-for-transparency.de
Accounting Measurement Intensity∗ Ionela Andreicovici† Valeri Nikolaev§ Laurence van Lent‡ Ruishen Zhang¶ June 2020 Abstract We propose an empirical measure of metering problems, i.e., the difficulties of measur- ing productivity and rewards in firms. We build on the insight that these metering problems are reflected in the intensity with which firms apply Generally Accepted Accounting Principles when preparing their financial statements to capture economic transactions. We adapt a simple computational linguistics algorithm to identify textual patterns that uniquely signify heightened use of accounting measurement in prepara- tion of accounting reports. We validate the output of this algorithm before computing time-varying, firm-level scores of accounting measurement intensity (AM I). We then show that AM I is associated with the decisions of professional users of accounting information. We also document that AM I is correlated with the cross-section of ex- pected equity returns and with the cost of debt and non-price terms in the private loan market. In CEO compensation contracts, we see lower pay-performance sensitivity to accounting performance metrics as AM I increases. Finally, we report that AM I correlates with investment and hiring decisions in firms; factor productivity, as well as the efficiency of resource allocation. Together, these findings are consistent with the predictions in Alchian and Demsetz (1972) about how metering problems affect the boundary of the firm. Keywords: metering problem, accounting measurement, stewardship, theory of the firm JEL codes: D22, D23, D24, G12, J23, M40 ∗ Preliminary. Van Lent and Zhang gratefully acknowledge funding from the Deutsche Forschungsge- meinschaft Project ID 403041268 - TRR 266. † Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Postal Address: Adickesallee 32-34, 60322 Frank- furt am Main, Germany; E-mail: i.andreicovici@fs.de. ‡ Frankfurt School of Finance and Management; Postal Address: Adickesallee 32-34, 60322 Frank- furt am Main, Germany; E-mail: l.vanlent@fs.de. § The University of Chicago; Postal Address: Booth School of Business, 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637; E-mail: valeri.nikolaev@chicagobooth.edu. ¶ Frankfurt School of Finance and Management; Postal Address: Adickesallee 32-34, 60322 Frank- furt am Main, Germany; E-mail: r.zhang@fs.de.
1. Introduction When Alchian and Demsetz (1972) characterized the key problem of economic organization as “the economical means of metering input productivity and metering rewards” (p. 778), they squarely placed accounting at the heart of the theory of the firm (Ball, 1989). This theory views a firm as a nexus of contracts that coordinate cooperation and the allocation of economic resources (see also, Coase (1937); Jensen and Meckling (1976); Demsetz (1988)). The boundaries of the firm and its productivity are directly affected by the informational costs related to the metering of the inputs to production as well as the metering of their productivity (Holmstrom and Milgrom, 1994; Kanodia, 2007). Despite this early recognition, quantifying “the metering problem” and its effect on firms has been hampered by the lack of a validated, large-sample metric of a given firm’s production of information through the accounting measurement system (Gao, 2013). Indeed, so far little guidance has been offered, even conceptually, on how such a measure should be constructed in an effort to determine the (intensity of the) metering that actually takes place in firms. In this paper, we use a simple machine-learning algorithm to construct a new, firm-level and time-varying metric of accounting measurement intensity (henceforth, AM I). Intu- itively, the metric capitalizes on the idea that accounting uses rules to convert a firm’s transactions into information that meters the economic substance of these transactions. We use a two-step procedure to quantify the degree of such metering. First, we rely on textual analysis of US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles to identify unique language (word combinations) that is used to lay out and discuss the rules of converting transactions into accounting reports. We then, in the second step, measure the degree to which this unique measurement-related language is encountered in the firm’s annual reports (10-K filings) ad- justed for the total length of the report, to obtain a measure of the “intensity” of accounting measurement in the firm’s disclosures. An implicit assumption underlying this approach is that, when firms communicate fi- 1
nancial information to outside investors, they have incentives, either due to mandatory disclosure requirements or voluntary motives, to explain in sufficient detail the specific ac- counting principles and procedures followed to construct the reported numbers. We present four sets of findings that aim to underpin our interpretation that AM I indeed meaningfully captures accounting measurement intensity. First, we list the top bigrams (two word com- binations) culled from US GAAP to mark accounting measurement discussions in financial statements. We observe that these bigrams correspond intuitively to the accountant’s notion of measurement-related issues. Prime examples include word combinations such as “intan- gible asset,” “estimate future,” “business combination,” “tax position,” “discount rate,” among many others. We also identify top-scoring 10-Ks and verify that they indeed feature extensive discussions of measurement-related issues. Second, we show that our measure varies intuitively over time and across sectors. The mean across firms of AM I increases significantly between 2000 and 2008, coinciding with US GAAP moving increasingly towards fair value-based measurement (as opposed to historical cost measurement). Subsequently from 2009, the mean AM I varies somewhat over the years but appears to have reached a plateau. We find high mean AM I for sectors such as the financial services and several manufacturing related businesses (paper, textiles), but low mean accounting measurement intensity in tobacco and coal.1 Third, we examine firm-level associations between AM I and firm characteristics that are commonly thought to be associated with accounting measurement issues (Francis et al., 2008). For example, frequent changes in the business model and the volatility of the firm’s operating environment are expected to add to the magnitude of the metering problem, when the firm uses rules to convert the economic substance of its transactions to an accounting report. Consistent with these predictions, we find that accounting measurement intensity exhibits a positive cross-sectional relation with the variability of sales, presence of intangibles 1 Indeed, the financial services sector has the across-sectors highest AMI score. We exclude it, for this reason and given that its metering problems are likely qualitatively different from other sectors, from our further analyses. 2
assets, such as goodwill, as well as with the length of its operating cycle. Further, we examine the associations between AM I and key accounting properties, such as earnings persistence, predictability, and accrual quality (e.g., Francis et al. (2008)). AMI exhibits significant negative associations with persistence and predictability of earnings, as well as with an indicator variable that identifies whether a firm has reported a restatement. Interestingly, firms with lower accrual quality, as captured by higher variance of discretionary accruals, exhibit lower AMI. This result suggests that measurement intensity, which aims to capture the degree of metering problems, is distinct from the well-researched notion of accounting quality. To further our argument that the traditional accounting properties are conceptually and empirically distinct from our concept of accounting measurement intensity, we first note that they have only a modest incremental explanatory power with respect to AM I. More importantly, we demonstrate that professional users of accounting reports, such as auditors and financial analysts, respond to accounting measurement intensity. Indeed, in line with the notion that audit effort and the associated risk depends on the extent of metering problems in the firm, we show that auditors charge significantly higher audit fees when a company has elevated levels of accounting measurement intensity. This effect holds in the presence of controls for accounting properties and characteristics of the firm’s business model and operating environment discussed above. This lends further support to our argument that AM I and accounting quality properties are distinct and empirically separable. We conclude the validation of our measure by showing that external users of accounting information, such as investors and financial analysts, respond to greater accounting mea- surement intensity. In line with increased information frictions between the firm and its investors, we show that AM I is associated with a higher probability of informed trading and and lower analyst following. Together, this evidence strongly suggests that we are capturing an economically signif- icant variation in firm-level accounting measurement intensity and that this construct is 3
distinct from more traditional measures of accounting quality. This metric enables us to address the question of central importance in the theory of the firm, namely, whether the presence of metering problems influences the boundaries of organizations and determines their productivity. Our analysis is motivated by the theory in Alchian and Demsetz (1972) and Jensen and Meckling (1976), which views a firm as a nexus of contractual relationships that directly addresses metering problems existing among contracting parties. Metering, thus permeates the economic organization of firms, giving rise to frictions in the firm’s interactions with capital markets, in the rewarding and provisioning of incentives to employees, and in the allocation of resources (Kanodia, 2007; Kanodia and Sapra, 2016). Ultimately, these frictions place bounds on the productivity of the firm and on the scope of its operations. We begin our exploration of how metering frictions affect the boundaries and produc- tivity of firms by providing evidence on the pricing of AM I in capital markets. In Alchian and Demsetz’ (1972) view, metering problems engender a need for monitoring and make the selling of promises of future returns to prospective capital providers more difficult. Similar predictions follow from the classic agency theory developed in Jensen and Meckling (1976), among others. To test this prediction, we examine the link between AM I and the cost of external capital. Using asset pricing tests, we show that accounting measurement intensity is positively associated with expected equity returns in the cross section of firms. Turning to debt markets, we also show that AM I has a positive and statistically significant association with the cost-of-debt. Further, we document a positive link between AM I and the use of accounting-based covenants, suggesting a contractual response to metering problems. Over- all, the evidence supports the view that metering problems create contracting frictions that are reflected in the pricing of corporate securities. Having shown that accounting measurement intensity has associations with the pricing of capital and is implicated in the contractual terms agreed with capital providers, we consider another major contractual arrangement within the firm: compensation contracts. Alchian 4
and Demsetz (1972) predict that one way to address the metering problems is to make the rewards of top management depend on the fluctuations in the residual value of the firm. Indeed, CEO compensation varies strongly with stock performance. However, to the extent that accounting measurement produces precise or more sensitive signals informative of the residual value, compensation should be responsive to accounting measures as well (Lambert and Larcker, 1987; Banker and Datar, 1989; Barclay et al., 2005). In line with this conjecture, we find that higher AM I scores are associated with a lower sensitivity of CEO compensation to performance as measured by using accounting numbers. To alleviate an omitted variable explanation, we also show that the sensitivity of compensation to a popular alternative metric, namely, stock returns, does not change with the level of AM I. Having established that AM I is associated with contracting frictions, we turn attention to the analysis of resource allocation and productivity. Specifically, Alchian and Demsetz (1972) predict that metering problems, with rewards and productivity only loosely correlated, will lower firm-level productivity and distort resource allocation. Insofar metering problems lead to lower productivity and limited access to finance, firms are expected to lower investments and hiring. Consistent with this prediction, we find that increases in accounting measurement intensity are associated with a significant decreases in the capital and R&D investment rates as well as with reductions in employment growth. Further, in a sign of distorted resource allocation, higher accounting measurement intensity increases the investment-cash flow sensitivity. Finally, yet importantly, we show that AM I is associated with erosion in firm-level total factor productivity. We make several contributions to the literature. First, we introduce and validate empir- ically a new measure that captures the construct of accounting measurement intensity, i.e., the intensity with which the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles are applied to convert a firm’s transactions into reported numbers. We show that this measure varies intuitively with firm characteristics and is distinct from more traditional indicators of accounting qual- ity. Second, we use the proposed measure to test several interesting predictions that follow 5
from the theory of the firm and that establish the link between metering problems, access to capital, and firm productivity. Our evidence suggests that measurement is a significant determinant of firms’ emergence and growth, as well as their allocation of resources. The idea that accounting measurement is essential to understanding the efficient orga- nization of production has been well-recognized in the accounting literature. Early work pointing out the “stewardship” role of accounting aims to describe how different accounting measurement rules are related to governance outcomes (Gjesdal, 1981; Paul, 1992; Bushman et al., 2006; Bushman and Indjejikian, 1993). These studies generally also distinguish be- tween the role of accounting in addressing the “metering problem” of measuring the marginal productivity of inputs and rewarding the owners of those inputs accordingly and provid- ing information to investors making decisions. Indeed, the trade-off between valuation and stewardship when developing new measurement rules is one of the fundamental issues policy- makers need to consider. And, often without much empirical evidence, critiques are leveled against proposed rules that are seen to sway too much in one direction or the other. We offer insights on the trade-offs faced by policy-makers inasmuch as we show that accounting measurement intensity is associated with contracting frictions that manifest themselves in the performance sensitivity of compensation contracts and in the way debt contracts are written. In addition, we provide evidence that these metering problems are priced in equity and debt markets, suggesting a valuation role as well as another mechanism (namely the funding of the firm’s operations) through which accounting measurement might be impli- cated in the scope of the firm. This approach is consistent with the ideas in Kanodia (2007), who emphasizes that alternative accounting measurements have real effects inasmuch as the question of how accountants measure and report a firm’s economic transactions to capital markets has substantial effects on decision-making within the firm and ultimately on resource allocation in the economy. This effect materializes as accounting measurement is reflected in the capital market’s pricing of the firm, which managers, in turn, anticipate when making decisions. 6
In more recent work, Barrios et al. (2019) examine the relation between financial measure- ment practices and firm-level productivity. These authors conceptualize the firm’s investment in having audited GAAP-based financial statements as a good managerial practice that aids in executive decision-making, and in turn increases productivity. In a related study, Breuer (2018) examines the effect of tougher financial reporting regulation on resource allocation in product and capital markets. These important studies focus on private (or limited liability) firms and rely on stark differences between groups of firms (having audited financial state- ments or not) to measure reporting quality. We offer a metric based on an algorithm that can be applied to any sample of firms that have publicly available disclosures, thus com- plementing what can be learned from (proprietary) data sets of private firms. Our measure does not reflect reporting quality, but rather centers on metering problems in firms, which is conceptualized to be the root cause for inefficiencies in productivity. What’s more, rather than focusing on how better measurement can assist managers to improve their productivity, we highlight the role of accounting measurement in countering the metering problem and describe its function in the governance of firms. Doing so is important in view of the find- ings in Choi (2018), whose general equilibrium analysis suggests that (accrual) accounting systems improve resource allocation and aggregate productivity. 2. Measuring Accounting Measurement Intensity Our method to obtain a metric of Accounting Measurement Intensity builds on the insight that the process of transforming transactions into accounting data has been described in a purposeful vocabulary in the pronouncements of standard setting bodies. The degree then to which companies use the selfsame purposeful vocabulary to describe their accounting practices should be a valid measure of the intensity of the process that transforms business transactions into meaningful accounting reports. While this premise is intuitive, its practical implementation faces three distinct challenges. First, when identifying uniquely-accounting vocabulary in the standard setter’s pronounce- 7
ments we need to identify expressions that are used much more frequently in accounting documents than in every day language. Following Hassan et al. (2019), we achieve this objective by comparing two-word combinations, i.e., bigrams, in a comprehensive set (“a library”, A) of FASB pronouncements, described more completely below, with a library of documents that capture non-business English. We use a large set of (open source) English language novels to capture non-business En- glish. Just removing non-business English from the set of bigrams, however, is unlikely to be sufficient. Complicated transactions such as M&A deals can give rise to metering prob- lems, but are separate from the same. Thus, as a second step, we need to supplement our non-accounting training library (N) with text that reflects language used to discuss business- related issues, without using accounting terms to do so. This poses a not straightforward research design problem as accounting is the language of business and many non-accounting texts about business issues tend to be steeped in accounting language. Including such “con- taminated” texts into the training library would amount to “throwing the baby out with the bathwater”. To overcome this issue, we augment our non-business English library with a collection of texts taken from a BBC news dataset (Greene and Cunningham, 2006) and from Webhose Datasets.2 These texts capture a broad range of topics spanning entertain- ment, sports, technology, and politics. And while they likely use business-related words, these texts, catering to a generalist audience, at the same time, eschew accounting-specific terms. Together, this collection of text documents is our non-accounting training library N. Third, conceptually, AM I should reflect variation in metering problems between firms. A substantial proportion of transactions that firms need to map into accounting data, however, is common to all and/or pose few measurement issues. These transactions are routine, their implications well understood, and little judgment is needed to capture them in accounting output. Accordingly, they should have little if any contribution to a metric of Accounting Measurement Intensity. We reflect these considerations in our choices related to the pre- 2 Webhose is a web data provider turning unstructured web content into machine-readable data feeds. 8
processing of the text data in the A training library. Specifically, we then remove bigrams that appear in more than 90 percent of the 10-Ks in an effort to filter out “boilerplate” accounting terminology. Additionally, in accordance with best-practice in textual analysis, we first lemmatize and stem the texts, removing digits, punctuation, and stop words. Having constructed the libraries N and A, we can now define the set of uniquely-accounting bigrams as A\N. It is this set of bigram that forms the basis for computing our AM I metric. In a nutshell, we take our set of A \ N bigrams to a given firm’s annual report (10-K) and simply count their presence. We then scale each count by the total number of bigrams in the 10-K yielding a statistic that represents the degree of accounting measurement intensity of the firm. We do so for every 10-K in our sample, which we obtain from the SEC Edgar database for all US publicly listed firms with a 10-K filed between 2001 and 2018. Thus, 1 X Bit (1) AM Iit = (1[b ∈ A \ N]), Bit b where b = 0, 1, ...Bit are the bigrams contained in the 10-K of firm i in year t and 1[·] is the indicator function. We opt to equally weigh bigrams in the construction of AM I, although we have experimented with alternative weighing schemes.3 The reason for equal weighting is to avoid largely capturing few frequent terms but instead, in line with our objective, emphasize the ‘long tail’ of heterogeneous measurement specific terminology encountered in annual reports. To facilitate interpretation, we standardize AM I by subtracting its sample mean and dividing by the sample standard deviation, such that a one-unit change in AM I represents a standard deviation.4 3 In particular, weighing by a bigram’s tf-idf is a common practice in the textual analysis literature (see, Loughran and McDonald (2011)). The “term frequency-inverse document frequency” weighs a bigram by the frequency of its occurrence in the training library (tf ) scaled by its discriminatory power across training libraries (idf ). In our setting, with only two training libraries, the idf term reduces to a constant scalar and we would effectively be weighing by the term frequency of the bigram. Doing so yields very similar AM I rankings and our inferences are not materially impacted. 4 When standardizing, and throughout most of the analysis we drop observations from the Financial Services industry, which typically have very high raw AM I scores. 9
2.1. Training libraries The validity of AM I, which we will subject to an extensive set of tests below, depends on effective identification of the set of uniquely-accounting (A \ N) bigrams. We aim to do so using a procedure that requires as little human involvement as possible, to avoid contaminating the measure with researcher biases. The only subjective intervention needed is in the researcher’s choice of the training libraries. We justify our choices more fully next. Accounting training library. We use a comprehensive set of statements issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board to capture the unique vocabulary accountants use to transfer economic transactions into financial reports. We use the Financial Accounting Standards Original Pronouncements, Updates (“as amended” and “as issued”), the FASB In- terpretations (as amended and as issued), FASB staff position papers, as well as the Emerging Issues Task Force Abstracts (including Other Technical Matters), from 1973 to 2019. Collec- tively, this library contains 70.2 MB of documents, i.e., 4.7 million unique bigrams excluding digits, punctuation, and stop words, outlining and discussing Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States, which together shape the then-current accounting practices of firms.5 Non-accounting training library. Our starting point in defining the non-accounting library N is a set of English-language novels taken from Project Gutenberg.6 We supple- ment this base library with news articles about sports, entertainment, politics, and tech- nology.These text include such bigrams as “investment economics”, “share price”, “equity owner”, and “credit financial”, illustrating their effectiveness in identifying generic business language despite discussing sports and entertainment. Alternatively, we could have supple- mented our base library with news articles that are more directly related to business articles (taking stories from the finance and economics pages of news papers). Doing so, however, would likely have removed important measurement related phrases from our ultimate A \ N 5 The corresponding pdf files that are transformed into txt format for use in our machine learning algorithm are 211.7 MB. 6 We provide a list of the selected novels in Appendix, Table 1. 10
set of bigram, as news about business topics is often steeped in accounting language. On the other hand, our preferred method errs on the side of leaving too many business-related, but not uniquely accounting bigrams in the ultimate set of uniquely-identified accounting bigrams. Nevertheless the overlap between these two alternative N libraries is about 90 per- cent, which leads us to conclude that set of A \ N bigrams is not very sensitive to the choice of non-accounting training libraries. Ultimately, we adopt the version of the non-accounting training library that has news articles aimed at a generic, non-business audience. After re- moving non-accounting bigrams, our library of uniquely-identified accounting bigrams (A\N) contains 490,397 terms. 2.2. Validation of AM I as a metric for Accounting Measurement Intensity In this section, we start validating the output of our method by first simply evaluating pat- terns of bigrams contained in A \ N. This is an important precaution to take as without face validity of the building blocks to the AM I score, we cannot hope to develop an economically meaningful statistic. 2.2.1. Face validity of AMI We first list the top 200 bigrams (measured by their occurrence in 10-Ks across the sample period) in Appendix Table 2. Reassuringly, we find that these top bigrams include mostly word combinations that accountants would agree reflect instances in which metering problems are present in transforming business transactions to financial reports. Prominent examples include “intangible asset”, “business combination”, “loan loss”,“measure fair”, “deferred income”,“unrecognized tax”, and “variable rate”, among others. Indeed, in this list of 200 bigrams, there is very little evidence of clear-cut “false positives”, i.e., bigrams that are intended to capture accounting measurement intensity, but are unrelated to the same. Perhaps the only exception are bigrams referring to corporate officers, such as “officer principal” and “director officer”. Interestingly, among the top bigrams are those which capture an important aspect of accounting measurement intensity, namely the extent to 11
which managerial judgement is required to adequately reflect the economics of the transaction that needs to be mapped into accounting reports. For example, frequently used bigrams are “management estimate”, “measure fair”, and “company determine”. We provide further texture by listing a top-10 of bigrams for each sample year in Ap- pendix Table 3. Doing so reveals some interesting patterns in the frequency of certain bigrams that to some extent appears to mirror time-series patterns in accounting standard setters’ concerns. For example, between 2001 and 2004, two top bigrams were “option plan” and “stock purchase” consistent with the FASB’s stated intend to regulate stock option plans and other executive compensation instruments in a response to the 2001 crash of the internet bubble. We then conduct a similar exercise, but rather than listing the top bigrams by year, Appendix Table 4 records the same by industry (using the Fama-French 17 industry classification). Again, the patterns in bigrams make intuitive sense. In the Financial Ser- vices Industry, top bigrams include “loan loss”, “mortgage loan”, and “capital requirement”, whereas in the Oil and Gas Industry, signature bigrams are “gas reserve’, “prove reserve”, and “asset retirement”. While it is useful to establish face validity, focusing on individual bigrams can be mislead- ing insofar as each individual bigram only contributes a little to the final AM I score given to a firm’s 10-K (recall that we weight bigrams equally). Indeed, what should be evaluated in the end is whether using these uniquely-accounting bigrams leads to AM I scores for 10-K’s that accurately portray the heterogeneity in accounting measurement intensity across firms (and within a given firm over time). That is, we wish to examine the properties of the AM I measure created by our algorithm. To that end, we turn to testing the face validity of the AM I score. This analysis is particularly important as some of the individual bigrams plausibly also reflect the nature of the firm’s business model and its economic transactions in addition to accounting measurement. Having such bigrams selected by our algorithm might increase measurement error, but again—given the sheer volume of bigrams used to compute AM I, their individual effect is likely to be very small. 12
We aggregate AM I scores computed for each firm-year by taking the yearly cross- sectional means and plotting them over time in Fig. 1. Next we compute average AM I scores by industry (across years) and present these averages in Fig. 2. The former figure shows the longitudinal development of accounting measurement intensity during our sample period. The trend of yearly mean AM I scores is clearly upward, in particular until the start of the Great Recession in 2008 after which the mean AM I plateaus at the level of about 0.1. The pattern could reflect the increased attention for “measurement intensive” fair-value accounting in the early 2000s and the reduced emphasis on the same when the financial cri- sis hit in 2008. At the industry-level, we observe high AM I values for Oil, Machinery, and Construction, while Consumer Goods and Mining represent the opposite of the spectrum. More so perhaps than the difference in mean AM I scores, one should take notice of the vari- ation across industries.7 Our proposed measure captures between-industry heterogeneity in measurement intensity as we would expect to observe. We probe the relative contributions of aggregate (i.e., time series), sectoral, and firm-level Accounting Measurement Intensity more systematically by performing variance decomposi- tion, reported in Table 2. This analysis asks how much of the variation in AM Iit is accounted for by various sets of fixed effects. We find that time fixed effects explain a modest degree of the variation in AM I. The trend in aggregate AM I shown in Fig. 1 accounts for only 5.5 percent of the total variation. Sector fixed effects (at the three-digit SIC level) and the interaction of sector and time fixed effects account for another 21.18 percent and 4.14 per- cent respectively. The remaining variation in AM I scores, 69.18 percent plays out at the firm-level rather than at the level of the sector or the economy as a whole. Only part of this variation, namely, 21.18 percent, is not explained by time or firm fixed effects. Adding granularity to our sector definition increases, as expected, the explanatory power of sector fixed effects (which range between 19.91 and 23 percent, moving from SIC 2 to 4 digit pre- cision). This increase in power is mirrored by a decrease in the explanatory power of firm 7 Note that we have dropped observations from the Financial Services industry. 13
fixed effects (from 54.61 to 45.41 percent), putting bounds on the amount of variation in AM I classified as “firm-level.” The aggregate patterns discussed above are reassuring as they conform our prior of the longitudinal trends in accounting measurement and heterogeneity in the degree of metering problems across industries. Further comfort can be taken from the identity of S&P500 firms with AM I scores in the top 15. Appendix Table 5 presents an overview; the table also includes the top bigrams in that firm’s 10-K as well as a top-scoring “snippet”, which presents the sentence with the highest number of accounting bigrams scaled by sentence length. A number of noteworthy observations follow from the table. First, top bigrams include “measurement heavy” concepts such as “value hierarchy”, “remeasurement gain”, “impairment charge”, and “defer compensation”. What’s more, consistent with measurement intensity deriving from both the measurement of inputs as well as from metering rewards, bigrams associated with the latter feature prominently: “post retirement”, “compensation expense”, and “performance cash”. Third, the snippets capture indeed prime instances of measurement. For example, the top snippet for Kroger, a supermarket chain, reads “the company assesses, both at the inception of the hedge and on an ongoing basis, whether derivatives used as hedging instruments are highly effective in offsetting the changes in the fair value of cash flow of the hedged items”, highlighting measurement issues surrounding the use of derivative instruments. Or consider the excerpt from the truck manufacturer Paccar on the complications of dealing with loss reserves: “small balance impaired receivables with similar risk characteristics are evaluated as a separate pool to determine the appropriate reserve for losses using the historical loss information discussed below.” 2.2.2. Innate determinants, accounting quality, and AMI We continue our validation efforts with further “sense” checks. We first perform a more systematic examination of those firm characteristics that are correlated with AM I. Our intuition is that AM I varies with the the firm’s business model and its operating environment (Francis et al., 2008). We compute AM I for 10-Ks filed between 2001 and 2018 and hence 14
our sample of AM I covers firms with a fiscal year ended between 2000 to 2018. Next, we match the AM I data set with accounting information retrieved from Compustat via a linking table provided by WRDS SEC Analytics Suite. This AMI-Compustat sample serves as the primary data set for all following analyses. Descriptive statistics for the main independent and dependent variables used in this and in the subsequent regression analyses are presented in Table 3. Our model specification takes the form (2) AM Iit = δt × δs + γXit + ǫit , where δt , and δs represent a full set of time and sector fixed effects, and the vector Xit contains a set of variables that prior work has thought to capture the firm’s “innate” factors (i.e., its business model and operating environment), namely the log of the firm’s assets, the variability of sales, the operating cycle, the incidence of losses, intangible asset intensity, and capital intensity. All variable definitions and the data sources are detailed in Table 1. Standard errors are clustered by firm throughout the paper unless we state differently explicitly.8 We report Ordinary Least Squares estimates for the relation between AM I and the various innate factors in Table 4, panel A. We find that more variability in sales (σ(Salesi,t )) is positively associated with AM I (in column 3, coefficient = 0.126, std. err. = 0.025), suggesting that metering problems are higher when the operating environment of the firm is more volatile. Larger firms within a sector (in a given year) also tend to have higher measurement intensity, consistent with these firms having more complex operations that are more difficult to map into accounting reports. Similarly, firms with longer operating cycles (indicative of a more lengthy process to transform input into cash) have higher measurement intensity (coefficient = 0.034, std. err. = 0.016). As one would also expect, we find that 8 All of our inferences are unaffected by clustering standard errors by firm-year. Further, we conduct extensive analysis on the appropriate standard errors in our tests below. 15
firms with greater fraction of intangible assets on their balance sheet (higher intangibles intensity) exhibit higher AM I. We also find some evidence that capital intensive business models, i.e., those characterized by a higher fraction of property, plant and equipment in their asset base exhibit higher AM I. Second, we examine whether and to what extent accounting measurement intensity overlaps with proxies for well-known earnings quality attributes, such as the variability of discretionary accruals (DA), earnings persistence (P ersistence), earnings predictabil- ity (P redictability), or whether the financial statement was restated (1[Restatement]). We do so by augmenting equation 2 with each of these variables separately in columns 1-4. We consider the variation within sector-time by including the corresponding fixed effects. Our findings indicate that AM I exhibits a negative association with variability of discretionary accruals (column 1). While this result may seem surprising at first sight, it clearly indicates that AM I is distinct from the notion of accruals quality based on the models of discre- tionary accruals.9 It is also possible that, empirically, discretionary accruals models have difficulties separating accounting quality from economic performance (Nikolaev, 2018); this measurement error, in turn, could yield a negative correlation. Unlike in the case of discretionary accruals, we find evidence of some intuitive “overlap” between AM I and earnings persistence (coefficient = -0.125, std. err. = 0.032), consistent with higher earnings persistence being associated with lower accounting measurement inten- sity. Similarly, more predictable earnings are associated with lower AM I. We also find a positive correlation between AM I and the presence of a restatement, such that firms that display high measurement intensity are more likely to also have restated financial statements. One important observation following from this table is that the explanatory power of regressions that add the individual earnings quality proxies remains virtually unchanged compared with our estimates of R2 in an equivalent specification in Panel A (column 3) that does not include these variables. We conclude, therefore, that AM I and earnings quality 9 We verify that this result is not driven by a particular choice of discretionary accrual model nor is sensitive to the use of control variables. 16
are distinct concepts. 2.2.3. AMI and audit fee premiums Our second “sense” check builds on the idea that auditors, putatively the most expert professionals in the accounting measurement process, recognize firms with high accounting measurement intensity and price the added effort required when delivering their service accordingly. If our measure is valid, we expect to observe a positive correlation between audit fees, i.e., the price charged by auditors to client firms, and AM I, while controlling for other determinants of audit fees. We examine this prediction using the intersection of the AMI-Compustat sample and the sample of firms with audit fee information between 2000 and 2018 available on Audit Analytics. We then estimate the following regression, (3) Auditf eeit = δi + δt × δs + αAM Iit + βAQit + γXit + ǫit In our preferred specification, not only do we examine the correlation between audit fees and accounting measurement intensity (as we do in column (1)), but we also add accounting attributes that proxy for accounting quality (columns 2-4), the vector X contains a standard set of control variables. Prior literature has shown that audit fees reflect the increased effort exerted by auditors when firms have poor accrual quality, higher earnings uncertainty, or have incurred restatements. To the extent that auditors recognize “accounting measurement intensity” as a different feature of the firm’s accounting system from those accounting quality measures, as suggested by our results in Table 4, AM I should be correlated with fees even in the presence of those controls. Our evidence, presented in Table 5, shows that AM I is positively and significantly cor- related with audit fees. When we build up to our preferred specification that adds all the controls for accounting quality at the same time in column (4) as well as year and firm fixed-effects, we find an estimated coefficient on AM I of 0.044 (std. err. = 0.008). This estimate is somewhat attenuated compared with the estimate using within-sector and time 17
variation in column 3, but still imply an economically meaningful role for over time changes in AM I within the same firm in explaining audit fees. Based on the estimate in column 3, a one standard deviation change in AM I increases audit fees by $55,000 or by about nine percent of the sample mean.10 These findings indicate that AM I is priced by the auditors and that this effect cannot be explained by the correlation of AM I with either firm innate determinants or proxies for accounting quality. 2.2.4. How do users of accounting information respond to increased AMI? Our final “sense check” exploits the intuition that higher level of accounting measurement intensity should be more difficult to evaluate by users of these reports. We offer two sets of results for this idea. First, we examine the correlation between AM I and the probability of informed trade (PIN), a common statistic for the level of information asymmetry between the firm and (equity) investors. Metering problems (i.e., high levels of AM I) may hamper the ability of investors to judge the economic performance of the firm and increase the information asymmetry between outsiders and firm “insiders”. Second, we ask whether “metering problems” are correlated with the coverage of the firm by financial analysts. While these analysts as professional information intermediary may help overcome problems in conveying the performance of the firm when metering problems are abound, their ability to do so under these circumstances is plausible compromised. We thus expect lower coverage for firms with high levels of AM I. We proceed by estimating PIN following Easley et al. (2002, 2010) for all firms on the intersection of NYSE Trade and Quote and Compustat from 2000 to 2018. From IBES, we collect the number of analysts covering a given firm in each fiscal year ending between 2000 and 2018. We then merge our AMI-Compustat sample with the PIN and the analyst data. 10 As we have standardized AM I by its panel standard deviation, we compute the economic magnitude by using the estimated coefficient from column (3), which includes sector-year fixed effects. Using estimates from the firm fixed effect regression would be inappropriate as, within firm, changes over time of one (panel) standard deviation are rare (Mummolo and Peterson, 2018). 18
Our specification takes the form, (4) yit = δi + δt × δs + αAM Iit + γXit + ǫit where yit is either PIN or the number of analysts covering the firm (Coverage), and X always includes the log of the firm’s assets in the prior period. Table 6 presents our estimates. In panel A, we find that AM I is positively associated with the probability of informed trading, consistent with the idea that high scores of measurement intensity increase the information asymmetry between the firm and its investors. While the coefficient of interest drops from 0.006 (std. err. = 0.001) to 0.003 (std. err. = 0.001) as we move from sector-year to firm and year fixed effects, which suggests that part of the variation is driven by differences between firms within a sector in a given year, the association remains significant at the one percent level. In panel B, we examine the association between AM I and Coverage. Our preferred estimate in the most stringent specification in column (4) equals -0.045 (std. err. = 0.007) and is again significant at the one percent level. Firms with higher accounting measurement intensity have lower financial analysts following. Compared with column (3), the drop in the estimate of interest is about 54 percent, once more indicating that a significant part of the variation in AM I plays out at the sector-year level. Our validation strategy so far has been to show that our algorithm identifies bigrams that are intuitively associated with metering problems and that the frequency of use of these bigrams varies over time and across sectors as one would expect. Consistent with these observations, the bigrams produce Accounting Measurement Intensity scores that vary (on average) in an economically meaningful way, both longitudinally and in the cross-section. Indeed, the AM I scores are associated with firm characteristics that imply more complex business models and operating environments, attributes of accounting information, such as persistence and the variance of discretionary accruals, as well as with fundamental decisions 19
by professionals such as auditors and financial analysts. 3. Accounting Measurement Intensity in Capital Markets Our validation tests provide some first evidence that AM I is a valid firm and time specific measure of metering problems. Having such a measure available, allows us to address funda- mental questions about the role of accounting measurement in the theory of the firm. Recall that the theory of the firm views organization as a nexus of contracts that co-ordinates eco- nomic activities and alleviates metering problems (Coase, 1937; Alchian and Demsetz, 1972; Demsetz, 1988; Jensen and Meckling, 1976). Metering problems create contracting frictions both within organizations as well as in the contracting between the firm and the outside world. We examine the latter first, and consequently start by exploring the link between accounting measurement intensity and contracting with external capital providers. As a first step, we test for the presence of a link between AM I and the cost of equity capital. We conduct a series of asset pricing tests to examine whether AM I is associated with a higher cost of equity capital. In addition, we examine credit market outcomes, including the associ- ation between AM I and the cost-of-debt as well as between AM I and non-price contractual terms. 3.1. Cost of equity capital Do metering problems influence the cost of equity capital? The answer to this question in not obvious. Metering problems add a layer of uncertainty about the fundamental firm characteristics that determine the objective distribution of returns (Barry and Brown, 1985). For example, metering problems hamper the investors’ ability to observe and evaluate the economic performance of a firm. To the extent that the measurement error present in ac- counting data is diversifiable, classic portfolio theory suggests that it should not be priced (Fama, 1976). As we have shown in the variance decomposition exercise, a substantial part of the variation in AM I is at the firm-level. At the same time, however, AM I exhibits 20
considerable time and sector variation too, which indicates that metering problems are cor- related across firms with similar characteristics. To the extent that the imprecisely measured fundamentals, which determine future cash flows and risks, are correlated across companies, equity investors are likely to make systematic errors when making decisions. Because such errors cannot be diversified, stocks with higher measurement problems should be priced at a higher discount. The latter argument is in line with the theory in Lambert et al. (2007), who argue that higher precision of accounting information reduces the assessed covariance of a firm’s cash flow with the cash flows of other firms and hence reduce the cost of eq- uity. What’s more, recent evidence also indicates that idiosyncratic volatility is priced (Ang et al., 2006; Chordia et al., 2017), admitting potentially a pricing effect of purely firm-specific measurement problems. To test whether expected stock returns are increasing in AM I, we follow the Fama- MacBeth (1973) methodology. We retrieve monthly stock returns of U.S.-listed firms over 2000 to 2019 from the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). We then match these monthly stock returns with the AMI-Compustat sample. We further require non-missing stock returns for the prior one-year period. As a first step, we estimate the following cross-sectional regression for each month (Novy- Marx, 2013; Ball et al., 2020) (5) Reti,t+1 = α + βAM Ii,t + γXi,t + ǫi where Ret is the one-period ahead monthly return (including delisting returns when appli- cable), the vector X contains natural logarithm of the market value of equity (M E), the book-to-market ratio (BM ), both of which are lagged by six months following Ball et al. (2020), the prior one-month return (Ret0,1 ) and the prior one-year (starting before Ret0,1 ) return (i.e., Ret2,12 ). We also lag AM I by six month, in such a way that firms with a fiscal year that ends in June have both AM I and control variables from January to December of 21
the preceding year. In the second step, the resulting time-series of monthly coefficients are averaged and the associated t-statistics are computed based on Newey-West standard errors, correcting for auto-correlation in returns up to two lags. The results of the Fama-MacBeth regressions are reported in Table 5, using Newey-West (1987) adjusted standard errors. We find a positive and significant (at the ten percent level) association between AM I and expected returns. The estimated coefficient on the variable of interest equals 0.001, implying that a one-standard deviation increase in AM I is associated with a 10 bps increase in monthly expected returns. 3.2. Debt markets In this section, we examine the extent to which the cost of debt capital as well as the use of accounting information in debt contracts vary with the degree of metering problems. We first report the association between AM I and the cost of debt. Our sample for this exercise uses pricing and contract details of commercial loans. We collect information on the all-in- drawn spreads and financial covenants for loans issued over the period 2000-2018 from the Thomson Reuters Dealscan database. We then use the intersection of the resulting data set with our firm-level AMI-Compustat sample aligned by the year in which the loan facility starts. Our regressions specification is given by, (6) yit = δi + δt × δs + αAM Iit + γXit + ǫit where y represents the price or non-price term of interest and X includes the log of total assets, the accounting return on assets (ROA), leverage (Leverage), and contract terms such as M aturity and the F acility amount. We turn attention first to the pricing of debt reported in Table 8. Our proxy for the cost-of-debt is all-in-drawn spread, which describes the amount the borrower pays in basis points over LIBOR for each dollar drawn down. We find a positive association between AM I 22
and the all-in-drawn spread; the estimated coefficient ranges between 5.7 and 7.1, depend- ing on whether we include only sector-and-time fixed effects or time and firm fixed effects. Economically speaking, this estimate translates into an approximately 5.7 bps increase in the cost-of-debt for a one standard deviation increase in AM I (using the specification with sector-and-time fixed effects to ensure that the effect size calculation reflects the standard- ization of AM I). The magnitudes of these results are lower as compared to the results for the cost of equity capital. This result may be due to (1) debt securities being less sensi- tive to information and (2) the presence of non-price terms, which also respond to metering problems. We investigate this latter possibility next. We consider the number of financial covenants, which are known to substitute for in- creased loan pricing, included in the loan agreement. In particular, instead of increasing the cost of debt, lenders can impose tighter covenants giving them earlier control over the company in case its reported performance is low. We investigate this hypothesis in Table 8. Indeed, we find a significant positive association between AM I and the number of financial covenants. Our estimates on the variable of interest imply that a one-standard deviation in- crease in AM I increases the number of covenants by about 0.05, or by 4.0 percent compared to the sample mean. Taken together, our findings show consistent correlations between AM I, our measure of a firm’s metering problems, and capital markets outcomes. These correlations exist both in the equity market, in which AM I is associated with expected returns, as well as in private debt markets, where we find that AM I is positively associated with the cost-of-debt and with the use of accounting-based covenants. The effect sizes are economically meaningful and consistent with the notion that metering problems are associated with financing frictions. In what follows we study whether the effects of metering problems extends beyond capital market frictions, having a first-order role in contracting issues within the firm as well as productivity and resource allocation outcomes. 23
4. Metering rewards: compensation contracts Motivated by Alchian and Demsetz’ (1972) characterization of the metering of rewards, which includes such activities as measuring output performance, apportioning rewards, and detecting and estimating the marginal productivity of employees, we turn to the question of how AM I correlates with the use of accounting performance measures in compensation contracts. To the extent that metering problems (indicated by high AM I scores) provide a stumbling block to efficient contracting with employees, we expect that firms rely less on accounting-based performance measures. In theory, this can happen if metering problems are associated with greater noise in accounting performance measures (Banker and Datar (1989)) or when such problems arise due to the presence of accounting manipulations (Baker (1992)). Stock price based measures, on the other hand, should be unaffected by these metering problems (Lambert and Larcker, 1987). We test this prediction in a standard performance sensitivity framework (see, e.g., Morse et al. (2011)), in which we regress the (log of) total compensation onto two summary measures of performance, namely accounting return on assets (ROA) and stock returns (Ret). For this analysis, we add to our AMI- Compustat sample data taken from Execucomp on the total compensation of the CEO. We then allow the compensation sensitivity to depend on AM I and estimate the following regression (7) Compensationi,t = δi + δs × δt + αAM Ii,t + βzROAi,t + ζ(AM Ii,t × zROAi,t ) + ηzReti,t + κ(AM Ii,t × zReti,t ) + λXi,t + ǫ, where z indicates that the variable is standardized by subtracting the mean of each two-digit SIC-year group and dividing by the group standard deviation. Compensation is the log of total CEO compensation and the vector X contains, as before, the log of the firm’s assets. If metering problems reduce the “usefulness” of accounting performance measures in re- warding executives, we expect that ζ̂ < 0. At the same time, we expect that compensation- 24
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