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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
published: 26 April 2021
doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.567162
What Do Weather Disasters Cost? An
Analysis of Weather Impacts in
Tanzania
Hellen E. Msemo 1,2*, Andrea L. Taylor 3,4 , Cathryn E. Birch 1 , Andrew J. Dougill 3 ,
Andrew Hartley 5 and Beth J. Woodhams 1
1
School of Earth and Environment, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds,
United Kingdom, 2 Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, 3 School of Earth and Environment,
Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, 4 Leeds University Business School, University
of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, 5 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Weather-related disasters negatively impact livelihoods and socioeconomic activities
and often lead to the loss of lives and homes. This study uses disaster data from the
Disaster Management Department (DMD) in Tanzania to describe the spatial distribution
of weather-related disasters, their socioeconomic impacts and highlight opportunities
to improve production and uptake of weather and climate information by climate
sensitive sectors. Between 2000 and 2019, severe weather accounted for ∼69% of
disasters in Tanzania. The Government spent over 20.5 million USD in response to
Edited by:
these disasters, which destroyed over 35,700 houses and 1,000 critical infrastructures
Vimal Mishra, (roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals), affected over 572,600 people, caused over
Indian Institute of Technology
240 injuries and 450 deaths. To reduce these impacts, it is important to understand
Gandhinagar, India
the decision-making process in terms of what and how national guidelines create and
Reviewed by:
Johnna Maria Infanti, enabling environment for integration of weather and climate information into disaster
National Oceanic and Atmospheric risk reduction strategies. For example, the National Transport Policy which is supposed
Administration (NOAA), United States
Parmeshwar Udmale,
to provide cross-sectorial guidelines on the use of weather and climate information
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand addresses the use to marine industry but remains silent to other climate sensitive sectors
*Correspondence: and the public. Whilst weather warnings are available Tanzania continues to suffer from
Hellen E. Msemo
the impacts of weather-related disasters. There is a clear need to better understand
eehem@leeds.ac.uk
the value of weather warning information at short timescales (1–5 days) and how this
Specialty section: information can be better used in the individual decision-making processes of those
This article was submitted to receiving advisories and warnings. The review of policies to guide on cross- sectoral
Climate Services,
a section of the journal actions to foster the uptake of weather and climate services, decisions across climate
Frontiers in Climate sensitive sectors, both nationally and sub-national level is recommended.
Received: 29 May 2020
Keywords: weather, disasters, weather warnings, climate information, policy, Africa
Accepted: 24 March 2021
Published: 26 April 2021
Citation: INTRODUCTION
Msemo HE, Taylor AL, Birch CE,
Dougill AJ, Hartley A and
Weather events profoundly affect human well-being, health, food security, infrastructure and
Woodhams BJ (2021) What Do
Weather Disasters Cost? An Analysis
economic development (CRED, 2018). A changing global climate is contributing to the increase
of Weather Impacts in Tanzania. in extreme weather events and associated threats to lives and livelihoods across Africa (Bedarff
Front. Clim. 3:567162. and Jakobeit, 2017). Globally, 91% of all disasters during 1998–2017 were caused by floods, storms,
doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.567162 droughts, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events (CRED, 2018). These events have led to
Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 1 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania losses in human life as well as major damage to property, It is important to note that, the disaster risk management infrastructure and the environment (Masson-Delmotte et al., system in Tanzania came to major reform after the establishment 2018; Formetta and Feyen, 2019); disproportionately affecting of the Disaster Relief Coordination Act No. 9 of 1990. The people in developing countries (UNISDR CRED, 2015). Act established an Inter-Ministerial Committee known as the Like other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania is Tanzania Disaster Relief Committee (TANDREC) to oversee particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather, and coordinate the overall relief operations in the country. including severe floods, frequent and prolonged droughts, and The TANDREC was under the Minister responsible for disaster to coastal storm surges (Watkiss et al., 2011). These events management in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). have been linked directly to significant societal and economic The 1990 Act also established the Disaster Relief Coordination impacts including declining crop yields, increased incidences Unit, which in 1998 was elevated to Disaster Management of crop pests and diseases, loss of livestock, decreased water Department (DMD). The DMD was specifically created as a availability as well as increase in vector-borne and water- secretariat to the TANDREC to coordinate and supervise all borne diseases. Both recent and historical experiences indicate disaster management activities in the country. In 2015, Disaster that infectious disease outbreaks often follow extreme weather Management Act No. 7 was enacted to replace Act No. 9 of events, as microbes, vectors, and reservoir animal hosts exploit 1990. The 2015 Act established an Emergency Operation and the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme Coordination Center (EOCC) as additional section to strengthen weather (McMichael, 2015). Human health also suffers as a result the functions of the department. Furthermore, it established of heat stress, weather-related changes in vector-borne diseases, the Tanzania Disaster Management Council (TADMAC) to higher incidence of food-related and waterborne infections, air replace TANDREC. The TADMAC advice the minister in pollutants, and conflicts driven by the depletion of natural charge on disaster risk management activities in the country. resources (Costello et al., 2009; Ncube and Tawodzera, 2019). The Act provides the overarching legal framework for DRR Weak adaptive capacity and reliance on rainfed agriculture implementation in the country. The disaster risk management makes Tanzania extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts initiatives in Tanzania are supported by a number of sectoral (Mkonda and He, 2018). It is projected that by 2100 Tanzania policies, laws, strategies and plans. These sectorial collaborations will experience increases in storm surges and sea-level rise, has enabled the department to collect and improve its existing putting more people at risk from coastal flooding (Schaeffer et al., disaster data profile. Despite this data offering important insights 2014). The Government of Tanzania has continued to spend into the characteristics and costs of severe weather events thousands of US dollars in response to the impacts of severe in Tanzania, no systematic analysis has been attempted to weather and climate change (Shemsanga et al., 2010; WMO, 2014; understand the contribution of severe weather events to the UNISDR CRED, 2015), but with critiques highlighting some country’s disaster profile and associated socioeconomic impacts. of the delays and institutional challenges in mainstreaming the The available data cannot fully explain the cost of weather- better use of climate information (e.g., Pardoe et al., 2018). It related disasters in Tanzania, however, they can help to inform has been recently predicted that climate change could lead to and shape management, mitigation and improve development net economic costs that are equivalent to a loss of almost 2% of early warning system to save more lives in future. They can of GDP each year by 2030 (Watkiss et al., 2011). However, to further help to strengthen disaster management plans, visions, date few studies are available on the impact of severe weather guideline, polices, and coordination across sectors responsible for events in the developing world or on the situation in Tanzania disaster risk reduction in the region. specifically. The UNISDR and CRED published a global report Early warning systems are fundamental to reducing impacts on economic losses, poverty, and disaster from the year 1998 of weather-related hazards (UNDP CIRDA Programme, 2016; to 2017 using the CRED’s Emergency Events Database (EM- WMO, 2017). To support the development of early warning DAT). The EM-DAT contains the world comprehensive data systems for disaster risk reduction, it is important to be on the occurrence and effects of occurrence of technological able to appropriately characterize extreme weather events and and natural disasters from 1900 to the present day (CRED, their impacts on society and the economy. Furthermore, it 2018). The reports classified disasters, according to the type of is important to understand how weather warnings are made hazard that triggers them where hydrological, meteorological and available and how are they are used in various climate climatological events were collectively being termed weather- or sensitive sectors and their decision-making process. It is also climate-related—plus geophysical disasters (CRED, 2018). The necessary to have policy that address the use of weather and report mostly made comparisons of the impacts between high climate information. Availability of policy allows collaboration income and low-income countries with a focus on human cost among organization and the integration of weather and climate rather than economic impacts. information to plans, actions, and setting out priorities (Pardoe Tanzania has kept a record of large-scale disasters since 1872. et al., 2018). Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) uses These records were established following a tropical cyclone National Transport Policy to guide on the production and that made landfall in Zanzibar and Bagamoyo in April 1872 application of weather and climate information in Tanzania (Lindström, 2019; Trove, 2020). An expert from the DMD (URT, 2003). However, this policy emphasizes the use of climate noted that: “Since the tropical cyclone incidence of April 1872, and weather information in the marine sector predominantly. the government has continued keeping and improving disaster These shortcomings in this policy context contributes to the data based on national guidelines and international agreements.” observed socioeconomic impacts of weather-related disasters. Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 2 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania
The aim of this paper is to examine the weather—related disasters 2000 to 2019 was used for this study. There were few events
and their associated impacts in Tanzania through the following records prior to 2000 and are only reported yearly, with little
research questions: information in terms of temporal distributions, scale of the
impact, cost (estimated damage and money provided), which
• What are the spatial distributions and socioeconomic impacts
are reported from 2000 onwards. These may be due to the fact
of weather-related hazards in Tanzania and how are they
that the department (the then unity) was responsible for relief
associated with the rainfall?
activities and not disaster management, and only disaster event
• What is required to reduce the impacts of weather-
that needed relief aids from government were recorded. Due to
related disasters?
these limitations, the most recent 20-year period from 2000 to
2019 is used in this study to assess the economic impacts of
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS weather-related disasters in Tanzania.
In this study events are classified according to the type of
This section presents the description of the study area, methods hazard that triggered them. All hydrological, meteorological,
and data used in this study. and climatological natural disasters in this paper are collectively
termed weather-related disasters (CRED, 2018). Events such as
Climate of Tanzania tropical cyclones, heavy rain, drought, floods, storms, strong
Tanzania lies within 1–12◦ S and 29–40◦ E, between the great East winds, thunderstorms, lightning, landslides, and epidemics were
African lakes of Lake Victoria in the north, Lake Tanganyika identified and grouped as weather-related disasters. Epidemics
in the west and Lake Nyasa to the south. To the east lies the were included due to the substantial role that weather plays in
Indian Ocean. The country includes Africa’s highest and lowest these outbreaks (Ncube and Tawodzera, 2019). Events such as fire
elevations: Mount Kilimanjaro (5,950 m above sea level) and the (both urban and bush fire events), earthquakes, accidents, vermin
floor of Lake Tanganyika (358 m below sea level), respectively. infestation, structural collapse, mine accidents, explosions, civil
The majority of Tanzania, except the eastern coastline, lies above strife, locust, and other pests were grouped together and termed
200 m above mean sea level (Basalirwa et al., 2002). as “Other” disasters. The number of people and households
The country experiences a bimodal rainfall regime in the directly (these are people who suffered injury, evacuated,
northern parts, which includes areas around the Lake Victoria displaced, died, relocated, or have suffered direct damage to
basin, Northern Coast, and Mount Kilimanjaro. The first rainfall their livelihoods etc.) or indirectly affected (these are in addition
season occurs during March, April, and May (MAM) and to direct effects, over time, due to disruption or changes in
the second during October, November and December (OND) economy, critical infrastructure, basic services, work, or social,
(Walker et al., 2019). The Central, South and Western areas health, and psychological consequences), animals killed; and
are characterized by a unimodal rainfall regime from November farms (acres) and houses affected (damaged and destroyed) were
to April. The rainfall over Tanzania is controlled by many identified. Roads, hospital, schools, and bridges affected were
factors, including large-scale teleconnections such as the El identified and were termed as public infrastructure. The annual
Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi-permanent systems number of weather-related disasters events for the 20-year period
such as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), tropical (2000–2019) were then correlated with annual rainfall of the
cyclones, more local-scale circulations such as sea breezes same period.
(Nicholson, 2018). Although the country exhibit bimodality It is important to note that not all the weather-related disasters
rainfall characteristics over the northern sector, the rainfall and associated impacts are in the profile. Until June 2018 the
analysis used for this data did not consider these variations. The national dataset only includes information on the events that had
recorded disaster events may not necessarily follow the rainfall a sufficiently large impact to require intervention by the central
regime, secondly there is a lag in reporting the impacts associated government, thus this analysis does not reflect the full cost of all
with hazards, for example for the case of slow onset disaster such severe weather but only the scale and cost of the most extreme
as drought. Thirdly observed impacts may have been caused by weather events. Furthermore, the DMD keeps and maintains the
a in far field severe weather events example rains over the high country disaster data profile, events, and its associated impacts
grounds may results to flooding in low laying areas. However, it information is collected and reported by the affected sector.
is important future studies to explore the relationship between For example, events and impacts to the agriculture sector, the
disaster events and the rainfall patterns to assist improvement in responsible ministry to assess and report is the Ministry of
generation and provision early warning information. Agriculture and Food Security, for health-related impacts is
the ministry responsible for health issues. Further research to
Disaster Data understand the data collection processes and the criteria used
The disaster data were obtained from the Disaster Management may provide more comprehensive understanding of how events
Department [DMD—Prime Minister Office (PMO)] during field and its associated impacts are ranked, defined and categorized.
visit to assess the value of weather information to decision makers In June 2018, there was a step-change in reporting
in disaster risk reduction in Tanzania between July and August methodology and more local-scale events began to be reported.
2019. The database composed of natural and man-made disasters An expert from the DMD noted that, Tanzania has improved its
(fires, transport accidents, mining accidents, building collapse reporting procedures after the inauguration of the Emergency
and civil strife) from 1872 to 2019. A 20-year data period from Operations and Communication Center (EOC): “Since the
Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 3 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania
establishment of the EOC ......we designed and established the years (Figure 1). Weather impacts are viewed as a causal factor
Situation Report (SITREP), we also strengthened communication in a number of epidemics including cholera, dengue, and plague
with the disaster management focal person at the regional and (Chersich et al., 2018; Fadda, 2020), while severe weather events
district level.... this has enhanced data capturing and following up and poor attention to weather conditions are among the factors
of events even at local level ....”. These comments were echoed contributing to marine accidents (Pike et al., 2013; Oluseye and
by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Ogunseye, 2016).
(CRED) who noted that the information about the occurrence There is a relatively high rate of occurrence of flood events
and severity of disasters has greatly improved, with an upswing in over the northeastern part of the country, especially the coastal
data reported to CRED, encouraged by increasing international areas (Figure 2). A number of flood events are also observed
cooperation on disaster risk reduction, a growing number in the Lake Victoria basin, north-eastern highlands and the
of national disaster loss databases and efforts to accelerate central parts of Tanzania. Droughts are more prevalent over
implementation of the Sendai Framework (CRED, 2018). Arusha, Mara, Shinyanga, Dodoma, Tanga, and Lindi regions.
Strong winds are reported to affect the coast areas of the
Rainfall Data Indian Ocean Dar es Salaam, Pwani, and Mafia Island; Lake
Daily mean rainfall from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Tanganyika, Rukwa, Njombe, Ruvuma, Mtwara; Dodoma; and
Precipitation v2.0 (CHIRPS) dataset has been used to analyze the Lake Victoria basin; Mara, Mwanza, and Kagera regions
rainfall over the country. CHIRPS is a processed gridded rainfall (Figure 2). Coastal areas of the Indian Ocean have a higher
product at 0.05◦ x 0.05◦ resolution, comprising of satellite number of strong wind events and are disproportionately affected
retrievals and in-situ station data (Funk et al., 2015). An area- by most types of disasters. This is due to a combination of various
weighted mean was taken over a box with the bounds between factors such as higher population density, poor infrastructure,
11.77◦ S−1.01◦ S and 29.34◦ E−40.62◦ E for the years 2000–2019. urban development in risk-prone locations, land use changes,
The CHIRPS data are used as it has higher skill, low or no and poverty (CRED, 2018; Anande and Luhunga, 2019). In
bias, and lower random errors in Tanzania compared to other addition, Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar are developed business
operational satellite data such as the African Rainfall Climatology and political hubs, where reporting may be more comprehensive.
version 2 (ARC2) and the Tropical Applications of Meteorology Events of heavy rainfall are more frequent Dar es Salaam,
using Satellite data (TAMSAT) (Dinku et al., 2018). Pwani, Mtwara, Mara, Mwanza, Kagera, and Singida regions.
There also reports at Lindi, Shinyanga, Geita, Rukwa, Kigoma,
Tabora, Dodoma, and Kilimanjaro regions (Figure 2). Landslides
RESULTS were reported over Kilimanjaro and Mwanza while few cases of
lightning strikes were reported over Rukwa, Geita, and Kaskazini
This section is divided into two parts based on the two main
Unguja (Zanzibar Island). High number of epidemics (mostly
research questions of this study. The first part presents the
cholera) were reported over Zanzibar Island and Kilimanjaro
analysis of secondary disaster and rainfall data which explain the
regions. Marine accidents were reported over Zanzibar Island
characteristics of weather-related disasters, their socioeconomic
with one case over Mwanza (Lake Victoria). This analysis
impacts to the community and the livelihood and how these
provides important information in improving weather and
events correlates with rainfall. The second part looks at the
climate forecast communications, it feeds onto vulnerability and
available weather information and develops a set of guidelines to
exposures of particular regions and thus the communities. Other
support the greater use of weather and climate information for
disasters (such as road accidents, urban and bush fire, building
Disaster Risk Reduction.
collapses, earthquakes, oil explosions, volcano eruptions) are
more frequent in the regions of Lindi and Zanzibar Island. There
What Are the Spatial Distributions and also reports at the remaining parts of the country except over
Socioeconomic Impacts of Tabora, Kigoma, Rukwa, Njombe, Ruvuma, Tanga, Shinyanga,
Weather-Related Disasters in Tanzania? and Mtwara regions.
A total of 498 disasters were recorded in the disaster profile Damage to property is one of the major causes of tangible loss
from the PMO-DMD between 1872 and 2019, of which 363 due to weather-related disasters. During the 20-year period from
occurred between 2000 and 2019 while 135 occurred between 2000 to 2019, weather-related disasters destroyed or damaged
1872 and 1999 (Figure 1). Weather-related disasters accounted more than 35,730 houses, affected 25,460 households and caused
for 250 (69%) of the 363 observed disasters in Tanzania. The 450 deaths and 240 injuries. Figure 3B shows the total annual
period of 2000–2019 has a similar distribution of disaster type recorded number of people affected and the number of houses
as the whole period 1872–1999 (Figure 1). Flooding is the most damaged and destroyed and Figure 3A shows the total annual
frequently occurring event, contributing ∼35% to all-natural number of injuries and deaths from weather-related disasters.
disasters affecting Tanzania in both periods. Strong winds and The impact of the reported events on property and people
drought contributed to 8.1%, and 4.4% of the total disasters, increased in 2018 and 2019, which could be due to the change
respectively, during the 2000–2019 period. With respect to events in reporting methodology in June 2018.
that are frequently associated with severe weather (directly or Apart from the direct impacts observed in Figure 3,
indirectly), epidemics, and marine accidents accounted for 21.2 communities are also impacted by indirect losses related
and 16.2%, respectively, of all-natural disasters within the last 20 to damage to properties, income losses linked to resultant
Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 4 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania FIGURE 1 | Classification of weather-related and other non-meteorological disasters in Tanzania for the period of 2000–2019 and 1872–1999. FIGURE 2 | Distribution of weather-related disasters events (drought, floods strong wind, and heavy rainfall) in Tanzania (2000–2019). Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 5 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania
FIGURE 4 | Annual number of severe weather disaster events and mean
annual rainfall over Tanzania from 2000 to 2019. The green line indicates the
start of improvement in data capturing system at the DMD-PMO.
acres of farms for various crops were destroyed and 4,860
domestic animals (goat, sheep, cattle, donkey, chicken, and
ducks) killed. These have negative impacts on food production,
availability and prices thus putting many people at risk of
malnutrition and increased illness due to poor health (World
Health Organization, 2019). They further affect the food quality
and safety; increase risks of outbreaks of animal and crop diseases
and pests (Richardson et al., 2018; World Health Organization,
2019).
FIGURE 3 | (A) The annual number of deaths and injuries and (B) the annual Figure 4 shows the total annual number of weather-related
number of people affected and houses destroyed and damaged by disasters and the mean annual rainfall over Tanzania from 2000
weather-related disasters. to 2019. The number of disasters is variable between 2000 and
2012, but then gradually increases from 2013 onwards, until
sharp increases were recorded in 2018 and 2019 (Figure 4).
unemployment and disrupted provision of essential services. There is a statistically significant correlation between the
People suffer non-tangible costs such as physical, emotional, annual mean rainfall over Tanzania and the number of events
and psychological health problems, which can be challenging over all 20 years (Spearman’s rho = 0.7, p < 0.05) The
to measure or assign a monetary value (Chersich et al., 2018). high correlation shows that seasonal forecasts, which provide
Weather-related disasters affect way of life, culture, community, predictions of seasonal or monthly mean rainfall predictions but
political systems, environment, health, and wellbeing (World not extremes, could provide advance warning of periods with a
Health Organization, 2020). Communities are forced to relocate large number of disasters.
to safer areas, which disrupts their day-to-day lives, personal The clear peak in event numbers in 2018 and 2019 could be
and property rights and their fears and aspirations. For example, due to the change in reporting methodology. Even with 2018 and
the 2011/2012 floods in Dar es Salaam left about 10,000 people 2019 removed, the correlation is still strong (Spearman’s rho =
homeless and the government allocated them a new location on 0.54, p < 0.05), suggesting that in years with more rainfall, there is
the outskirts of the city (Anande and Luhunga, 2019). a higher likelihood of a large number of weather-related disasters.
The dataset also indicates that weather-related disasters It is not possible to determine how much of the peak in events
destroyed more than 1,080 public infrastructures (bridges and in 2018 and 2019 is due to changes in reporting and how much
railways, hospitals, schools, and roads) during the period of is due to the high rainfall levels recorded in these years (TMA,
2000–2019. Disruptions in the transportation system affects 2019). Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature evolution
the functioning of socioeconomic activities, access to work over the Indian Ocean basin was associated with the observed
places, social services and markets. Furthermore, many transport above normal rainfall in 2018. Five tropical cyclones occurred
facilities and other public infrastructure are exposed and over the South-Western Indian Ocean in 2018 and enhanced
vulnerable to weather-related hazards such as floods, strong westerly winds, which dragged abundant moisture from the
winds and heavy rains (Koks et al., 2019). More than 24,620 Congo forest over much part of the county (TMA, 2019). Other
Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 6 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania FIGURE 5 | The recorded annual amount of money spent in response to weather-related disasters. climatic systems such ITCZ and the Near Equatorial were also respond to the impacts of heavy events that resulted in floods associated with the observed enhanced heavy rains. in the Kilosa district in Morogoro region and landslides in In 2019 the national mean annual rainfall was 1283.5 mm, the same district in Kilimanjaro region and for a widespread which is equal to 125% of the long-term (1981–2010) average drought event in Arusha, Dodoma, Kilimanjaro, Iringa, Kagera, (TMA, 2020). The OND 2019 rainy season received above normal Lindi, and Mara regions. A total amount of 16.4 billion rainfall and is the second wettest OND on record since 1970 Tanzania Shillings (8.3 million USD) was used for the provision and October 2019 was the wettest October ever since 1970 of humanitarian assistance for the affected population and (TMA, 2020). The heavy rainfalls were a result of positive ENSO construction of damaged infrastructure (Figure 5). From 2016 conditions (El Niño) and Indian Ocean Dipole, Tropical Cyclone onwards relatively, little money has been spent, even though the Idai deflected moist winds away from the country whereas number of reported events and damaged has remained constant Tropical Cyclones Desmund, Eketsang, and Kenneth induced or increased (Figure 5). This could be due to the increased westerly winds that dragged moisture from the Congo basin availability of warnings and advisories (Figures 6, 7), which have toward the country. been issued since 2012, although further research is required to The government spent 25.9 billion Tanzania shillings (20.5 evaluate this. million USD) in response to weather-related disasters between The data in Figure 5 does not reflect the cost of responding to 2000 and 2019. The annual expenditure for weather- related the secondary impacts of heavy rains, floods and drought such as disasters shows no consistency across and between years disease outbreaks. It has been noted that the majority of disaster (Figure 5) and there was no information on how much reports contain no economic data and loss inequality between the government spent in the years 2000–2002, 2004, and low and high incomes countries is much larger than reported 2005–2007, even though the country recorded weather-related due to a systematic under-reporting by low income countries disasters in these years (Figure 4). The data indicate the (CRED, 2018). A disaster expert from the DMD office noted that, government provided food and non-food items, however, there “there has been less spending in humanitarian assistance in recent was no cost attached. years [2016-2019] because most of the affected population from the Much of the cost was in 2009, which was an El Niño year, past events were relocated to safer areas and in recent years the generally associated with enhanced rainfall conditions in the department improved its disaster reporting system so even small- country (NWS, 2020). However, there is no significant peak scale disasters, which require no central government interventions in mean rainfall over the whole year and whole country in are reported. The expenditures are mostly on public infrastructure 2009 in Figure 4. The government used the money in 2009 to such as roads, bridges, hospitals and others.” Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 7 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania
FIGURE 6 | An example of day 1 of a TMA severe weather impact-based forecast (Forecasting Division, TMA).
The amount spent on weather-related disasters including as its main framing. This policy does not provide explicit
drought is about 0.04% of the Tanzania annual GDP for 2018 directives/guidelines on the production of weather and climate
(WB, 2020). For example, in a study conducted by Anande services and application to climate sensitive sectors or for
and Luhunga (2019) on the assessment of socio-economic Disaster Risk Reduction explicitly. Its main emphasis is on
impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam marine services to use weather information (URT, 2003).
showed that flood events damaged properties worth 7.5 million However, TMA also implements regional and global initiatives
Tanzania shillings and Tanzania Government spent a total of which aim to improve integration of weather and climate
1.83 billion Tanzanian shillings to rescue and relocate vulnerable services into cross-sectoral planning, policy, and practice.
communities to safer locations (high ground). These findings These include the ClimDev-Africa, Global Framework for
not only provide insight on how weather-related disasters are Climate Services (GFCS), and the Integrated African Strategy
characterized and their cost but also calls for measures to build on Meteorology (weather and climate services of the African
or strengthen community resilience to weather-related disasters. Ministerial Conference on Meteorology, or AMCOMET). TMA
also developed and endorsed the National Framework for
Climate Services (URT, 2018). Although these national, regional,
What Is Required to Reduce the Impacts of and international initiatives have been taken into consideration
Weather-Related Disasters? in the generation of weather and climate information, it is
To address this research question, we looked at the available necessary for the sector to have a policy instrument that enables
guidelines that enables the use of weather and climate services the uptake of weather and climate services.
to reduce the impacts of weather-related disasters. We found Secondly, we looked at the availability of weather and climate
that TMA as the authoritative source of weather and climate services for disaster risk reduction sector. We found that
services uses the transport sector policy from the parent since April 2012, the TMA has issued 5-day severe weather
ministry (Ministry of Works, Transport, and Communications) impact-based forecasts for strong winds, heavy rainfall, tropical
Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 8 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania FIGURE 7 | An example of day 2–5 of the TMA severe weather impact-based forecast, indicating warning of heavy rain on day 2, advisories on day 3 and 4 and no warning on day 5 (Forecasting Division, TMA). cyclones, extreme temperatures, and high waves (Figures 6, 7). climate-resilient development planning (Vincent et al., 2017). As The forecasts use predefined action statements, with four levels recent research suggested that a changing climate is likely to of warning: gray for no warning, yellow and amber for an lead to an increase in heavy rains in Tanzania (Chang’a et al., advisory (be prepared and take precautions) and red for a major 2017) this is important information for providers of weather and warning (take action). Weather advisories inform the public climate services, as well as the disaster risk management sector. about the progress of a potentially dangerous weather condition Having a sector policy will allow the use of short-term and long- while the warnings alert the public that a weather-related hazard term precipitation forecasts for planning, strengthen community is imminent and that immediate action should be taken to preparedness, and implementation of actions to reduce risks protect lives and property (WMO, 2015; Taylor et al., 2019). The during the years when enhanced rainfall is expected. These forecast has a lead time of 1–5 days and includes symbols to aid findings are important in improving the transport sector policy visualization of expected hazards. It also has action statements on enhancing the use of weather and climate services to the with specific guidance about action to be taken, likelihood, widest range of users. and local impact severity. TMA also provides seasonal weather forecast with advisory to climate sensitive sectors (TMA;WAMIS, 2018). CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Although this information is widely disseminated across Tanzania, the country continues to suffer disproportionally from This paper uses disaster data from the Tanzanian Government’s the impact of weather-related hazards. The understanding of Disaster Management Department office to assess the cost and decision-making processes, specifically focused on how and impacts of weather-related disasters in Tanzania from 2000 when various types of weather and climate information are to 2019. The findings show that Tanzania continues to suffer incorporated in decision making process is key to disaster risk from the impacts of severe weather events, causing injuries and reduction. Early warning information is a key factor in enhancing deaths of people and livestock, infrastructure damage, loss of disaster preparedness for effective responses and disaster risk crops, and arable land for farming despite the availability of reduction measures (Lopez et al., 2020). Lack of policy may warnings for potential weather hazards. The observed association hinder advances or cause barriers to the identification of user between observed rainfall and the total number of weather- needs, use of weather and climate information in decision related disaster events provides an opportunity for guiding making and impacts of climate change adaptation initiatives and decision-makers in terms of setting out mitigation measures Frontiers in Climate | www.frontiersin.org 9 April 2021 | Volume 3 | Article 567162
Msemo et al. An Analysis of Weather Impacts in Tanzania
for disaster risk reduction and preparedness planning. It also plans at national and sub-national levels for enhancing decision
provides inputs to policy makers so set out priorities and making in disaster risk reduction.
mechanisms to attain the Sendai Seven Campaign which aims
in lowering the mortality, reduce the number of people affected DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
and direct disaster economic loss in relation to the GDP
by 2030. The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be
The current lack of an explicit meteorological policy (as found made available by the authors, without undue reservation.
in many other African countries) limits the application and
setting of priorities in wider range of use and implementation of AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
various initiatives in climate sensitive sectors. This highlights the
importance of: (i) Policy review to enhance uptake of weather and HEM collected and analyzed all the data and wrote the first draft
climate information to climate sensitive sectors. (ii) Assessing the of the paper. ALT, CEB, AJD, AH, and BJW commented on
entire chain of forecast generation, from an evaluation of the the methodology and study design. All authors have significance
accuracy of the forecasts to how the end-user utilizes the forecasts contributions to the manuscript.
for decision making. (iii) Investigating the value of the severe
weather impact-based forecasts for decision making. (iv) Finding FUNDING
out how weather information is being used; whether the right
information is being provided at each step; how much damage This work was supported by UK Research and Innovation as
could be prevented with improved warning systems; how the part of the Global Challenges Research Fund, African SWIFT
information add value to decision-making; how weather hazards program (Grant Number: NE/P021077/1).
and vulnerability issues are incorporated in the warning issued
to the public and other actors is key to the decision-makers, and ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
(v) understanding the value of severe weather forecasts which are
normally forecasted at a shorter time scale (1–5 days). The above The authors are thankful to all who provided their constructive
needs will help to reduce the impacts of weather-related hazards comments without which this paper would not have been in the
will feed into the policy review process, broadens application of present shape. HEM was supported by the GCRF African SWIFT
weather and climate services as well as setting out actions and Project. Global project to improve African weather forecasting.
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