Climate Change Risks in Auckland - Knowledge Auckland
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Climate
Change
Risks in
Auckland
BC5983
1
AUCKLAND COUNCIL TECHNICAL REPORT, TR2019/019
© 2019 Auckland Council
Auckland Council technical report,
TR2019/019
ISSN 2230-4525 PRINT
ISSN 2230-4533 ONLINE
ISBN 978-1-98-858958-9 PRINT
ISBN 978-1-98-858959-6 PDF
2 Prepared for Auckland Council by Arup.
Executive
Summary
Auckland is being In response to the threat of Climate change in Auckland
climate change, Auckland Council The National Institute of Water
impacted by has committed to facilitating and Atmospheric Research climate
climate change and the development of Auckland’s projections (Pearce et al., 2018)
projections indicate Climate Action Plan. It will steer provide Auckland with the most
the region on a path toward robust, localised information on
that impacts will rapidly reducing greenhouse gas the anticipated changes in climate
intensify over the emissions and to prepare the city for the region and is available
for the impacts of a changing
next century. climate. This is in line with the
on Knowledge Auckland. The
anticipated changes in the climate
Action is required 2015 Paris Agreement to limit in Auckland are changes in sea
to anticipate the global warming to 1.5°C. level rise, temperature, rainfall,
effects and adapt to As part of developing the
storm events, wind and humidity.
a changing climate. evidence-base for the action plan, Climate Change Risk
Auckland Council’s Research and Assessment
Evaluation Unit has produced a
The Climate Change Risk
Climate Change Risk Assessment
Assessment technical report
technical report series. This
series were undertaken using
assessment aims to provide
the Intergovernmental Panel on
information about the risks the
Climate Change methodology
Auckland Region may face and its
(IPCC, 2014) to assess impacts
impacts on people, society and
on people, the environment
the environment. This research
and infrastructure. The purpose
is underpinned by the Auckland
was to identify which parts of
Region climate change projections
Auckland are the most susceptible
and impacts research undertaken
to impacts of climate change and
by the National Institute of
also the social and environmental
Water and Atmospheric Research
vulnerability. This is understood
(Pearce et al., 2018).
by evaluating the adaptive
This document summarises capacity of areas to impacts of
the research, key findings and climate change.
considerations from the risk
assessment to contribute to
the development of Auckland’s
Climate Action Plan.
3
E X EC U T I V E S U M M A RY
Key findings The ability of people and households
to adapt and respond to the effects of
Combining the impacts climate change is dependent on many factors.
of climate change with • Where people live, their socio-economic
circumstance, their support networks, their
relative vulnerability across occupations and their ability to have options can
Auckland suggests that: impact their vulnerability.
• Children and older people will be more vulnerable
than others to some effects, especially related to
poor air quality.
• There is some evidence that Māori and Pacific
peoples may be more affected than others to some
effects, due to their generally younger age structures
as well as other factors.
Sea level rise could
put infrastructure and ecosystems
at risk while flooding poses
direct and indirect risks to people, The changing climate will create
infrastructure and services. an environment that allows water
and vector-borne diseases to thrive,
which will affect people
and ecosystems.
Terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems
are at risk and face a combination of stressors.
The most vulnerable species are those
that have limited capacity to migrate Changes to these ecosystems are likely
and those that will experience a to impact on human wellbeing and the
‘coastal squeeze’. economy.
4
Informing Auckland’s It is worth remembering that vary. Risks will continue to emerge
Climate Action Plan climate change is not happening in due to the multiple stressors.
The Climate Change Risk isolation and not just in Auckland. Continual re-evaluation will need
Assessment identifies areas, Rapid population growth, land to be undertaken as more data
sectors and communities at use changes, pollution and human become available.
greatest risk from climate impacts. induced stressors will compound
Implementing precautionary and
This provides an evidence base the effects of climate change for
adaptive measures into decision-
to support the development of people and the environment.
making at every level will allow
Auckland’s Climate Action Plan.
There is inherent uncertainty in for better response to reduce risks
the projections and the magnitude and will help prepare Auckland for
and extent of the effects could climate change.
Contents 01/ Introduction 7
02/ Auckland’s Changing Climate 11
03/ Climate Change Risk Assessment 14
04/ Technical Report Series 23
4.1 Health effects of extreme heat 23
4.2 Connecting climate change to reduced air quality 26
4.3 Creating conditions for disease vectors 29
4.4 Social vulnerability to climate change impacts 30
4.5 Flooding risk in the built environment 33
4.6 Auckland’s exposure to sea level rise 35
4.7 Climate change impacts and risks for terrestrial ecosystems 38
4.8 Climate change risks for marine and freshwater ecosystems 40
05/ Additional and Emerging risks 44
06/ Bibliography 46 5
6 Wynyard Quarter © Auckland Council
01/ Introduction
Auckland’s Climate Auckland’s Climate Action Plan Specifically, the research covers:
will set a path to rapidly reduce
Action Plan will greenhouse gas emissions in line
• Health effects of extreme heat.
set a path to with the 2015 Paris Agreement to • Climate change, air quality
and health impacts.
rapidly reduce keep warming within 1.5 degrees.
It will ensure that Auckland is • Creating conditions for
greenhouse gas prepared for the impacts of disease vectors.
emissions to keep climate change. The plan is • Social vulnerability.
being developed in collaboration
within 1.5 degrees with businesses, organisations,
• Flooding risk in the
of warming while mana whenua, communities
built environment.
• Climate change impacts and
ensuring Auckland and individuals as well as across
risks for terrestrial ecosystems.
all levels of government.
is prepared for • Climate change impacts
the impacts of In developing the evidence and risks for marine and
base for Auckland’s Climate
climate change. Action Plan, Auckland Council’s
freshwater ecosystems.
• Effects of sea level
Research and Evaluation Unit
Auckland Council is committed to rise on Auckland.
has developed a Climate Change
reducing emissions and ensuring Understanding the climate
Risk Assessment technical report
resilience for Auckland. In 2016, change risks and impacts on
series, using Auckland’s Climate
Auckland Council joined the vulnerability for Auckland is
Change Projections (Pearce et al.,
C40 Cities Climate Leadership imperative to both mitigate and
2018) as a basis. This research
Group, a global network of over adapt to climate change and to
aims to provide information about
90 cities committed to tackling inform planning and decision
the risks and vulnerabilities that
climate change. In renewing C40 making. This research will help
the Auckland region may face
membership in November 2018, Aucklanders to understand the
under the changing climate.
Auckland Council committed to impacts of climate change on
leading the development of a This document summarises risks their health, the health of our
climate action plan for the region. identified within the technical ecosystems and the impact on the
report series to understand natural and built environment.
how the Auckland region will be
The technical report series will be
affected by climate change.
expanded and built on as data and
other resources become available.
7
01/ I N T RO D U C T I O N
Collaborating with Māori
Auckland Council By working with the Mana Future research aims to:
Whenua Kaitiaki Forum, kaumatua
is working to and Māori experts, the plan seeks Develop a more comprehensive
interface Te Ao to weave the mātauranga of those understanding of the specific
impacts of climate change
Māori perspectives, who have come before us and
on Māori communities,
the voices of mana whenua into
values and ancient solutions around specific climate assets and economy across
ancestral knowledge challenges for Tāmaki Makaurau. Tāmaki Makaurau.
It is crucial that these meet the
(Mātauranga Māori) specific needs and interests of our
Provide clarity around how
into current and Māori communities, give a voice
Auckland Council and Council
Controlled Organisations
future decision to our future generations through
can enable and honour our
the work we do today, and
making around give agency to the non-human
commitment of active protection
climate change. elements around us who make up
in relation to climate change
under the Treaty of Waitangi.
the world that we are a part of.
Research across New Zealand
highlights that Māori
communities, assets and economy
are vulnerable to the impacts of
our changing climate.
8
Climate Change Risk Assessment document map
Auckland Region Climate Change Projections and Impacts
NIWA, 2018
RIMU Risks and Vulnerabilities Research Programme
An assessment of Air quality and societal
vulnerability to climate impacts from predicted
change in Auckland climate change in Auckland
Development of the
Creating conditions
Auckland Heat
for disease vectors
Vulnerability Index
Sea Level Rise Flooding risk in the
in Auckland built environment
Climate change impacts Climate change impacts
and risks for marine and and risks for
freshwater ecosystems terrestrial ecosystems
Climate Change Risks in Auckland
THIS DOCUMENT
Auckland’s Climate Action Plan
TO BE RELEASED 2019
9
Figure 2: Document map10 Manurewa native forest remnants © Auckland Council
02/ Auckland’s
Changing
Climate
The climate This research has been used to Future climate scenarios
underpin the Climate Change were considered using four
in Auckland is Risk Assessment. Representative Concentration
changing, with Pathways, 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and
The report
extreme weather The National Institute of Water
8.5 for 2040, 2090 and 2110.
These indicated the projected
events becoming and Atmospheric Research greenhouse gas concentrations
more common and reviewed climate change based on forecast emission
projections in Auckland and trends and were used as inputs
more severe. modelled expected changes for to the model to represent
21 different climate variables different scenarios. The graph
The National Institute of Water out to 2120. The future changes below demonstrates the
and Atmospheric Research has were assessed by incorporating different pathways:
undertaken an important research knowledge of natural variations
piece – Auckland region climate in the climate and changes
change projections and impacts that may result from human
(Pearce et al., 2018) – which induced increases in greenhouse
provides Auckland with the most gas concentrations.
robust information on the climate
projections for the region.
historical
12
RCP2.6
Radiactive forcing (W m-2)
RCP4.5
9
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
6
3
0
Year 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
Figure 3: Representative Concentration Pathways
1102/ AUCKL A N D’ S CH A NG I NG CLI M AT E
Application to the Climate
Change Risk Assessment The future climate is uncertain
The climate change projections
Climate change projections are a snapshot in time and are
have been used as the basis for
projections based on current models. There is inherent
assessing impact and risk in
uncertainty in climate change projections and the future
the Auckland Council Research
changes that will occur as a result. Uncertainty is due to:
and Evaluation Unit Climate
Change Risk Assessment • The cumulative impacts of climate change.
technical report series for
Auckland. The forecasts for • Conflicting impacts of climate change and what this
Representative Concentration means for the natural and built environment.
Pathway 8.5 have been
Evidence demonstrates that the climate is changing
used as these are most
more rapidly than anticipated by climate scientists.
representative of current
Therefore, projections for the next century could very
emission trends and allow a
well be accelerated into the latter part of this century.
precautionary approach.
12Climate
projections
Increasing annual average
temperatures and extreme
TEMPER ATURE temperatures, and significantly
more hot days each year.
Plant growing days also increase.
Rising sea level puts coastal
communities and infrastructure at
SEA LEVEL risk from inundation and erosion.
Under RCP 8.5 1m sea level rise is
projected by the end of this century.
Uptake of atmospheric CO2 is leading
OCEAN to ocean acidification. Changes in the
ACIDIFICATION oceans will adversely impact health of
marine life and cause nutrient decline.
Annual relative humidity is projected
HUMIDIT Y to slightly decrease while absolute
humidity is expected to increase.
Seasonal distribution of rainfall is
projected to change with wetter
R AINFALL autumns and drier springs. More extreme
rainfall events are expected to increase
while the number of rain days and soil
moisture deficit are set to decline.
Average wind speed and number
WIND of windy days are decreasing and
this is projected to continue, while
intensity of tropical cyclones
is expected to increase.
1314 Auckland skyline © Istock
03/ Climate
Change Risk
Assessment
Purpose Definitions
This Climate Change This research utilises the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change definitions (IPCC, 2014):
Risk Assessment
technical report RISK
series provides a The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines risk as
technical, the likelihood of an event occurring combined with the impacts.
Specifically, for climate change, risk is comprised of three
evidence-driven components (seen in Figure 4):
foundation to • The hazard.
guide actions for • Exposure of people, infrastructure, economy
Auckland’s Climate and natural environment to the hazards.
Action Plan. • Vulnerability to the hazards.
VULNERABILITY
The vulnerability of people, a species or habitat, infrastructure,
economy or the natural environment is a component of risk.
Vulnerability includes the following:
• Exposure to the hazard.
• Sensitivity.
• Adaptive capacity.
Vulnerability includes the physical, geographic and socio-economic
contexts that determine an individual’s or group’s ability to adapt
to change. For species, their ability to migrate would influence their
adaptive capacity.
Understanding the most vulnerable areas of Auckland is important to
understand how to build resilience and develop targeted actions to
prepare Auckland in response to a changing climate.
1503/ CLI M AT E CH A NG E RISK A SSESSM ENT
Risk and vulnerabilities relationships
IMPACTS
PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF VULNERABILITY
SOCIOECONOMIC
CLIMATE CHANGE PROCESSES
CLIMATE
Natural RISK Socioeconomic
Variability Pathways
HAZARDS Emergent
Anthropogenic Trends & Events Adaptation &
Key
Climate Change Mitigation Actions
Governance
EXPOSURE
EMISSIONS
& Land-use Changes
Figure 4: Relationship between vulnerability, risk, exposure and hazards (IPCC, 2014)
16Methodology
The Intergovernmental Panel on 3. Identification of quantifiable 4. Indices: indicators for each
Climate Change methodology indicator variables that cover spatial unit were scored
was undertaken for the Climate exposure, sensitivity and and weighted to develop
Change Risk Assessment technical adaptive capacity: index values.
report series. This methodology
Exposure indicators are variables 5. Identification of vulnerability
was applied to people,
that measure the region’s hotspots: these were identified
ecosystems, societal systems,
exposure to climate change. based on spatial units with high
built infrastructure and green and
blue infrastructure to understand Sensitivity indicators illustrate sensitivity, high exposure and
risks and vulnerabilities. reactiveness to changes in low adaptive capacity.
The methodology included: the climate. For people this
6. Assessment and discussion:
includes employment status,
1. Understanding stressors identifying the vulnerability
age, accessibility and underlying
on the people, society and hotspots in Auckland enabled
health conditions. For species it
environment as a result of an analysis of the most at
includes ability to migrate and
climate change. risk areas, groups, species,
distance from coastal regions.
habitats infrastructure.
2. Definition of the spatial scale Adaptive capacity covers the
being assessed – in most ability to react to the changes.
‘people specific’ cases this was a For people this includes factors
census area unit – for habitats it such as socio-economic standing
was a specific species. and accessibility to greenspace.
Climate Change risk assessment methodology
identify map
define
understand indicators: develop & identify assessment
spatial
stressors exposure, sensitivity indices vulnerability & discussion
scale & adaptive
capacity hotspots
Figure 5: Climate Change risk assessment methodology
1703/ CLI M AT E C H A NGE
RISK A SSESSM ENT
Key Messages
A few of the key findings from the Auckland’s climate change
Climate change research undertaken include:
will impact people, Climate change is happening, and effects can already be seen
societal structures, Climate change is linked to deteriorating air quality which
the natural and will further impact the health of the population.
built environment, Weather patterns will change. Spring rainfall is
species and habitats. projected to decline and autumn rainfall is projected
to increase across the Auckland Region.
Climate change will increase extreme heat events (hot days)
which will likely impact the health of Auckland’s communities
and environments. There may be further unknown consequences
that cannot be projected at this stage, such as the risks
associated with the establishment of new disease and disease
vector populations such as mosquitos and parasites.
Storm surge and sea level rise are already affecting
Auckland’s people and infrastructure.
Ocean acidification is already threatening Auckland’s
marine ecosystems, including culturally, economically
and ecologically significant species.
Terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems will change due
to the compounding effects and multiple stressors of climate
change and other environmental stressors such as pollution.
The current projections may accelerate at an unknown rate,
so that effects projected for the next century – such as sea
level rise – may take place over a much shorter time frame.
18The Climate Change Risk
Assessment takes into consideration The ability of people and households
scientific projections, our current to adapt and respond to the effects of
understanding of climate change climate change is dependent on many factors.
effects and Auckland’s current • Where people live, their socio-economic circumstance,
environment, in order to better their support networks, their occupations and their
ability to have options can impact their vulnerability.
understand the key risks and
vulnerabilities of Auckland. • Children and older people will be more vulnerable than
others to some effects, especially related to poor air
Some of the key findings include:
quality.
• There is some evidence that Māori and Pacific peoples
may be more affected than others to some effects,
due to their generally younger age structures as well as
other factors.
Sea level rise will
put infrastructure and ecosystems
at risk while flooding poses
direct and indirect risks to people, The changing climate will create
infrastructure and services. an environment that allows water
and vector-borne diseases to
thrive, which will affect people and
ecosystems.
Terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems
are at risk and face a combination of stressors.
The most vulnerable species are those
Changes to these ecosystems are likely
that have limited capacity to migrate
to impact on human wellbeing and the
and those that will experience a
economy.
‘coastal squeeze’.
The Climate Change Risk Assessment technical report series identifies some evidence-based, targeted
considerations for those areas, sectors and communities at greatest risk from climate impacts.
These considerations will tie into Auckland’s Climate Change Action Plan. The considerations from these
risk assessments are not comprehensive and actions identified in Auckland’s Climate Change Action Plan
will encompass these considerations and more.
The following sections summarise the technical report series and further detail Auckland’s climate change
impacts and the risks for people, society and the environment.
19CLI M AT E CH A NGE I N AUCKL A N D
Causes and effects
INCREASED
FOREST FIRE RISK
INCREASED
FOREST FIRE RISK
COASTAL
INUNDATION
COASTAL
INUNDATION
WATER-BORNE
DISEASE INCREASE
WATER-BORNE
DISEASE INCREASE
FLOOD
FLOOD
INSECT BORNE
DISEASE INCREASE INSECT BORNE
DISEASE INCREASE
TERRESTRIAL INCREASED INCREASED
TERRESTRIAL ALLERGENS
ECOSYSTEM DECLINE ECOSYSTEM DECLINE ALLERGENS
CLI M AT E
CH A NGE I N
AUCKL A N D
Causes
TEMPERATURE OCEAN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY
INCREASE ACIDIFICATION INCREASE
20
TEMPERATURE OCEAN ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY
ACIDIFICATION INCREASE STORM INTEN
INCREASESOIL & MOISTURE
DECLINE
SOIL & MOISTURE
DECLINE
MARINE ECOSYSTEM
DECLINE
REDUCED FOOD
MARINE ECOSYSTEM
DECLINE
SECURITY
REDUCED FOOD
SECURITY
POLLUTION
ACCUMULATION
POLLUTION
ACCUMULATION FRESH WATER
ECOSYSTEM
FRESH WATER DECLINE
ECOSYSTEM DECLINE
D
S
DECREASED VARIABLE
STORM INTENSITY INCREASE SEA LEVEL RISE
RAINFALL DAYS WIND SPEED
21
DECREASED VARIABLE
NSITY INCREASE SEA LEVEL RISE
RAINFALL DAYS WIND SPEEDThe following section summarises the Technical
Report series developed by Auckland Council’s
Research and Evaluation Unit.
22
Whangaparoa Peninsula © IstockTechnical
04/
Report Series
4.1 Health effects of extreme heat
Based on: Joynt, J. L. R. and
Golubiewski, N. E. (2019).
and those with pre-existing mental Increasing access
and chronic health conditions.
Development of the Auckland According to the index the most to social and green
Heat Vulnerability Index.
Auckland Council technical report,
vulnerable populations are in infrastructure,
TR2019/013 South and West Auckland. The
like community
cause of the vulnerability in each
The Auckland Heat Vulnerability area varies but includes limited cool spaces, can
Index identifies the areas and adaptive capacity because of help reduce heat
populations more sensitive to high socio-economic deprivation,
the effects of extreme heat. tenure type and limited transport
stress for those
Vulnerability to extreme heat is access, as well as increased most vulnerable.
influenced by socio-economic, sensitivity to extreme heat due to
health and environmental the prevalence in the population
factors. Ten representative of either old or young, underlying
indicators derived from census health conditions, single occupant
and land cover data for Auckland households as well as the
are combined and mapped effects of limited greenspace.
(overleaf) to indicate areas of
greater sensitivity and reduced Social infrastructure, such
adaptive capacity to hot days. as community centres, can
increase social cohesion
Vulnerability to extreme heat is and reduce isolation and
not the same across Auckland vulnerability to extreme heat.
– heat related impacts are Although not factored into the
closely related to both social Heat Vulnerability Index, the
vulnerability and the local considerable community cohesion
environment. Evidence from evident in many parts of South and
the literature indicates that West Auckland enabled through
heat related mortality and existing social infrastructure is
morbidity is more common in likely, in part, to mitigate the risk
certain groups, including: female for some communities. Measuring
householders, the socially isolated, and including social infrastructure
the elderly and the young, in the Heat Vulnerability Index
those with language barriers, represents a future research
ethnic minorities, low income development opportunity. 23
households, renter households,04/ T ECH N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
People working in heat sensitive Reducing the effects of extreme heat
occupations including construction Examples of effective heat mitigation actions include:
and labour activities may be
subject to negative outcomes. • Heat management plans and warning systems.
There is evidence to suggest
this may affect some groups • Inventories of social infrastructure.
such as Māori and Pacific
• Establishment of ‘buddy systems’ to check on isolated and high risk
peoples more than others.
community members.
Natural and built environment investment and intervention can have a
significant effect on reducing the severity of heat events, for example:
• Cooling can be achieved through increasing green-infrastructure
Social design, such as increased tree canopy and green space and green
infrastructure can warrants of fitness on buildings. Many of the areas identified as
high risk in the Heat Vulnerability Index have proportionally less
increase social green space.
cohesion and
• Further, the provision of improved social infrastructure can create
reduce isolation greater community cohesion, which reduces social isolation, as well
and vulnerability as provide for community ‘cool spaces’, particularly in low socio-
to extreme heat. economic communities for the population to evacuate to during
extreme heat days.
• The Heat Vulnerability Index highlights the importance of green
space, and addressing underlying depreivation and health issues in the
community.
24Figure 6: Heat vulnerability index for Auckland 25
04/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
4.2 Connecting climate change to reduced air quality
Based on: Talbot, N. (2019). Increased air temperature results Drought could also result in
Air quality and societal impacts in a longer growing season for plant stress. Through a complex
from predicted climate change plants, increasing pollen in the process, plant stress could result
in Auckland. Auckland Council
atmosphere. Once mixed with in increased ozone and nitrogen
technical report, TR2019/012
airborne pollutants, the allergenic dioxide with organic compounds
The impact of climate change properties can be enhanced – if released by plants mixing with
has strong implications on air inhaled, it can trigger asthma vehicle exhaust and sunlight.
quality across Auckland. attacks and other acute
WIND
respiratory disease symptoms.
Health implications from
Changes in wind speed
climate forecasts HUMIDITY and direction will alter how
Air quality is highly susceptible Humidity can make pollen pollutants are carried to and
to other changes that result more problematic by causing dispersed around the city. The
from climate change, such as spores to split and allowing them wind speed and direction regulate
increased temperature, decreased to infiltrate further into the lungs. aerosol loading as well as brown
humidity and rainfall and changes Humidity levels also change the haze events. Changing wind
in wind speed and direction. nature of particulate matter in directions may also increase
the atmosphere. Low and high contribution of shipping emissions
TEMPERATURE
humidity favour transmission and over Auckland from the Port.
Heat stress makes people survival of influenza virus and
more susceptible to acute health Impact on community
increased humidity can impact
problems. High temperatures indoor air quality, potentially There are poor health outcomes
also tend to occur during periods increasing mould growth. from reduced air quality due
of reduced airflow, resulting to a number of factors. Health
in a ‘pooling’ of air, increasing RAINFALL conditions such as respiratory
pollutant concentrations through Fewer rainy days will lower illness and asthma are exacerbated
chemical processes. This is the efficiency of the removal of by worsened air quality.
most likely to occur in densely atmospheric pollutants and may
populated urban street canyons The built-up city centre could
allow accumulation of pollutants
surrounded by tall buildings and be an area of high exposure due
on road surfaces which could
along heavily-trafficked roads. to the condensed architecture
remain suspended within road
of tall buildings and high
dust. Drier conditions increase the
vehicle traffic volumes.
chance of wildfires, for example, in
the Waitakere Ranges, which
26 would reduce air quality.Dispersion of particulate matter • Communities with low income Air quality will
is reduced at ground level which and employment are less
affects those who live and work in likely to have capacity to be negatively
built-up urban centres. protect themselves against impacted by climate
Research identified that
air pollution impacts.
change. We must
certain communities are focus efforts to
disproportionately vulnerable
to health impacts from
increase resilience
air pollutants in Auckland. for those that are
Vulnerable populations are: most vulnerable
• Communities with elderly to the changes.
or young populations as
relatively small increases in air
pollutants disproportionately How Auckland can adapt
impact them. Several considerations are recommended to improve air quality and limit
the impact on populations:
• Māori and Pacific peoples
may be disproportionately Air quality can be improved by reducing the wood-burning emissions
affected by adverse social from domestic heating and industrial emissions across Auckland.
and economic circumstances, Green infrastructure can improve air quality as natural vegetation can act
as well as higher rates of as a filter to remove or divert air pollutants from the atmosphere.
diseases and chronic illness,
making them more vulnerable Target areas of high density living near busy roads for air quality
to reduced air quality. improvement measures. This would build on the Fossil Fuel Free Streets
initiative and include procuring zero-emission public transport.
Technology can be developed to target specific vulnerable populations
such as those with pre-existing health conditions to provide alerts and
advice in real-time. This could include pollen or particulate matter
warnings and encourage people to stay inside or limit exposure during
periods of poor air quality.
This research will enable Auckland Council to better mitigate and adapt
to climate change and to focus efforts on specific key vulnerable groups. 2704/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
CLIMATE AIR QUALIT Y POSSIBLE HEALTH COMMUNIT Y
FORECAST IMPACTS IMPLICATIONS LEVEL RISKS
Lower wind speed Less dispersal of Increases in urban Old and young
pollutants heat stress most susceptible
Increased temperature
Photo-oxidation = Increased hospital Increased social
Changes in rainfall Increase in O3 / NO2 admissions from inequality
patterns respiratory disorders
Increase in an-allergens Increase in mental
Increasing humidity Increase susceptibility health stress
Lower emissions to flu / allergens
Changes in rainfall from wood burning Absence from
pattern Increase in viruses work / school
Longer lifetime carried by airborne
Changes in for pollutants aerosol Lower income less
climatic cycles able to adapt
Increased plant stress = Environmental
Release of VOC’s = > O3 degradation
Increase runoff of
pollutants (metals)
More lightning, NO2 / O3
Changes in atmospheric
flow- cycle / SO2
Figure 7: Connceting climate change, air quality and its
impacts
284.3 Creating conditions for disease vectors
By: Joynt, J. L. R New Zealand. The Malarial parasite
is carried by the anopheline
The changing
Auckland is at risk of being
exposed to new diseases as
mosquito which is endemic in climate could create
a result of climate change.
Australia and South East Asia and an environment
has been previously intercepted
Increased temperature, humidity at New Zealand’s borders. that allows water
and rainfall can all facilitate
Other vector-borne diseases
and vector borne
the spread of disease and
allow conditions for disease
that could become established diseases to thrive
to thrive and establish in the
in New Zealand include Murray as well as the
Valley Encephalitis, Japanese
community. Water and vector-
Encephalitis and dengue fever, introduction of
borne diseases – those carried
by mosquitoes and parasites
which has already had previous new diseases to the
outbreaks in New Zealand
– are of particular concern.
with Pacific Island origin.
Auckland Region.
As Auckland’s climate becomes
Climate change and disease
more tropical, conditions
grow more favourable for the Climate change will make supply and waterways in flooding
establishment of mosquito and conditions more favourable for a events from sewage overflow.
other vector species populations. population to become established Parasites such as giardia and the
and highlights a significant threat Escherichia coli (E.coli) bacteria can
Mosquito borne diseases to public health. Flooding events cause illness when contaminated
New Zealand has 16 species of can create breeding grounds, waterways are used for recreation
mosquito, and several others have particularly in increasingly warm such as swimming and fishing.
been intercepted at its borders. conditions and lead to increased Cyanobacteria and avian botulism
For disease to establish in the vector establishment. Waterborne in reservoirs also pose a risk as dry
community, both the vector and disease outbreaks are closely conditions with low water levels
the disease need to be present. correlated with extreme weather can result in their establishment
events which are projected to in drinking water reservoirs.
To date there has never been increase in intensity and frequency
a confirmed case of a human in Auckland with climate change. How Auckland can adapt
acquiring a mosquito-borne Regular surveillance and
disease in New Zealand. However, monitoring of disease outbreaks,
there are established species Other health risks as well as disease vectors, will
already which are capable of help assess and forecast changes.
Other health risks include
being vectors for diseases such as
contamination of drinking water 29
West Nile Virus, if it were to enter04/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
4.4 Social vulnerability to climate change impacts
Based on: Fernandez, M. A. and
Golubiewski, N. E. (2019). An
that characterise vulnerable Exposure to climate
hotspots are: a low share of
assessment of vulnerability to green space such as cropland, change effects
climate change in Auckland.
Auckland Council technical report,
grassland or tree cover, high rates combined with
TR2019/011 of single-person households,
socio-economic
low average household income,
Vulnerability has been assessed high housing stress, low levels vulnerability
across the census area units of of house ownership and high results improves
Auckland based on the degree deprivation levels. Some of
to which geophysical, biological, these stressors correspond to
our understanding
and socio-economic systems are the physical and geographical of who climate
susceptible to, and unable to cope
with, adverse impacts of climate
environment, while others are change will impact
characterised by socio-economic
change. The assessment combines context and social preferences.
the most severely.
multiple factors in order to
stress test areas of Auckland and How Auckland can adapt
identify which will be the most This assessment improves the
vulnerable to climate change. understanding of what drives
vulnerability in Auckland
Vulnerability is characterised by
and informs development
the potential impact (comprising
of adaptation options and
exposure and sensitivity) and
priorities for intervention.
adaptive capacity of each census
area unit. Indicators used for
characterisation are shown in
Table 1. Vulnerable areas are those
that suffer potentially high impact
(high exposure and sensitivity)
and have a low adaptive capacity.
Assessment results show the
impact and adaptive capacity
across the Auckland region, with
hotspots located in southern and
western areas of Auckland. Factors
30Figure 8: Vulnerability assessment and hotspots: Impact (sensitivity and exposure) Figure 9: Vulnerability assessment and hotspots: Adaptive capacity 31
04/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
TABLE 1 INDICATORS USED TO MEASURE VULNERABILITY COMPONENTS
INDEX INDIC ATORS FUNCTIONAL REL ATIONSHIP
Exposure Coastal inundation Vulnerability as indicator
– 50 years return 1 metre sea level rise
Dry days < 1 mm Vulnerability as indicator
Total precipitation percentage change Vulnerability as indicator
Heavy rainfall days > 25 mm Vulnerability as indicator
Hot days > 25 Vulnerability as indicator
Mean temperature Vulnerability as indicator
Mean wind speed Vulnerability as indicator
Relative humidity Vulnerability as indicator
Sensitivity Deprivation Index Vulnerability as deprivation index
Unemployment rate* Vulnerability as unemployment
Ratio of population under Vulnerability as rate of dependency
15 and over 65 to 19 – 64 *
Percentage of populated area Vulnerability as % populated area
relative to CAU area
Percentage of single-headed households* Vulnerability as % of single-headed households
Road density (ratio of km of road Vulnerability as ratio
per km2 of populated area)
Adaptive Capacity Average household income* Vulnerability as income
Housing stress (ratio of rent Vulnerability as housing stress
payments to household income)*
Percentage of population that are Vulnerability as % owning house
owner-occupiers of house*
Percentage of area in cropland** Vulnerability as % on crops production
Percentage of area in grassland** Vulnerability as % on grass production
Percentage of area in forest** Vulnerability as % of forest cover
NOTE
* Data at census area unit level, extracted from Census 2013.
32 ** Data extracted from LUCAS NZ land use map 2012. Climatic (exposure) data extracted from Pearce et al. (2017)4.5 Flooding risk in the built environment
Based on: Joynt, J.L.R, Golubiewski,
N.E. and Balderston, K.
Almost one quarter (23%) of
Improving green
Aucklands buildings are exposed
(Forthcoming). Flooding risk in the to flood hazards. It is estimated infrastructure and
built environment. Auckland Council
technical report, TR2019/016
that that 16,000 buildings having less paved
are at risk of floor flooding
Flooding is the most common in a 100 year flood event.
surfaces can help
natural hazard in Auckland. absorb some of
With its many harbours, inland Impacts
watercourses and tributaries, Flood events damage property
the impacts of
there is no part of the region and endanger the population flooding and protect
that is not close to and directly through debris fields, infrastructure.
intimately related with water. high velocities and increased risk
of drowning. Secondary effects
Auckland’s sub-tropical climate include but are not limited to
means that high humidity increased risks of vector and
and heavy rainfall events are water-borne diseases following
not uncommon year-round. flood events and contamination
Further, there is a risk of tropical from wastewater overflows.
storms from the Pacific.
Infrastructure failure,
Climate change will increase displacement, disruption and
the severity and frequency insurance costs all have further
of flooding across the city, impact on society and have long
particularly in winter and autumn. lasting impacts. Increased risk of
Auckland's urban area has Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder
large amounts of impervious can result from extreme natural
surfaces. These surfaces can disasters such asHAZARDS
TABLE 2 FLOOD flooding.
alter the volume, speed and
FLOOD NUMBER OF PERCENTAGE OF
path of rainfall runoff.
HA Z ARD BUILDINGS* TOTAL BUILDINGS 6
Floodplain (FP) 64,064 12%
Flood prone area (FPA) 22,798 4%
Overland 80,244 15%
Total 127,593 23%
33
NOTE
* Buildings are defined as structures greater than or equal to 60m2 in area, many small structures such as garden sheds would not be included
in this estimate.04/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
Vulnerability How Auckland can adapt
Current and future flooding Responding to climate change Reduce the effect of impervious
exposure and risk is core council requires fundamental changes surfaces in new developments,
information. How exposure in how we think about and plan utilising green infrastructure
translates into vulnerability is for the future of our catchments, to decrease runoff.
necessary to understand the coastlines and communities. Some
hard decisions will be required Locating new development
impact of flood events on different
about the acceptability and appropriately, outside floodplains.
communities.
affordability of sustaining human Work across Council to create
As with all climate related risks, habitation and infrastructure in future focussed policy, planning,
the effects of flooding will be some areas. We need to change development and asset
influenced by a range of factors. how we use land and waterways, management that is informed
These factors can include things and design, construct, and manage by the long-term consolidated
such as household income, buildings and infrastructure risk to human life, property and
housing tenure or personal to reduce the risk. We need to infrastructure from all natural
mobility. More information is consider the whole of life risks and hazards and future climate change.
needed to understand the level of costs of future investments in land
flood vulnerability that Auckland and infrastructure development,
communities in different locations and engage the community in
experience now and may in the open and honest conversations.
future.
Flooding is the
most common
natural hazard
in Auckland.
344.6 Auckland’s exposure to sea level rise
Based on: Golubiewski, N. E., Scenarios Coastal inundation
Balderston, K; Hu, C. and Boyle, J. The following scenarios were
(2019) Auckland’s exposure to sea
assessed for sea level rise,
and sea level rise are
level rise: part 1 – regional inventory.
Auckland Council technical report,
and for coastal inundation already affecting
TR2019/017 to understand Auckland’s Aucklanders.
exposure impacts over time.
And Boyle, J. Golubiewski, N. E., We need to prepare
Balderston and K; Hu, C. (2019).
Auckland’s exposure to sea level
SEA LEVEL RISE
our infrastructure
• 0.25 metre sea level rise
rise: part 2 – local inventory.
Auckland Council technical report,
now and understand
TR2019/018 (forthcoming)
• 0.5 metre sea level rise
limitations to areas
Auckland will experience sea- • 1 metre sea level rise available for future
level rise and coastal inundation,
• 2 metre sea level rise infrastructure.
with significant impacts on
people, the environment, land,
COASTAL INUNDATION
buildings and infrastructure.
• 1 in 100-year average
Over this century approximately return interval (ARI)
1.5-2.5% of Auckland’s land area
could be exposed to sea level • 1 in 100-year ARI + 1
rise. This encompasses 0.3% metre sea level rise
of buildings, 80% of coastal
• 1 in 100-year ARI + 2
ecosystems and 6% of dairy land.
metre sea level rise
Outside of these potentially
exposed areas, there are
other areas across Auckland
that are predicted to become
exposed to coastal inundation
in extreme weather events.
3504/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
Exposure How Auckland can adapt
• A substantial proportion of • Many parks lie along shores and Understanding the specific
coastal ecosystems would coastal margins, with between areas that are exposed to sea
be exposed with projected 1% and 7.5% of Council-owned level rise and coastal inundation
sea level rise. Some coastal green space exposed to sea will enable a targeted focus
and scrub forests exposed level rise, including sports to assist building capacity and
to sea level rise and fields, parks and cemeteries. preparation. These specific areas
inundation, with mangroves identified will inform additional
• Utilities and transport have
and saltwater wetlands actions for Auckland’s Climate
high proportional exposure
being the most exposed*. Action Plan to build resilience,
as they are more likely to be
planning and regulations and to
• Some unitary plan zones are below sea level and may be
mitigate the impacts of climate
exposed in long-term sea level exposed to salt intrusion, as
change as much as possible.
rise scenarios, particularly well as utility assets on the
coastal zones, port zone and coast being more directly
the central business district. exposed, due to their location.
• Buildings have been • Livestock farms including sheep,
constructed in zones that are beef and dairy comprise most
now known to be exposed to of the agricultural production
sea level rise, although planning land in the Auckland region
regulations require habitable and have the greatest area of
floors to be above the 100 land exposed to sea level rise.
year storm inundation level
• Further industries that
including 1 metre sea level rise.
• Some residential land is
will be affected include:
fisheries, hatcheries and 1.5-2.5%
exposed (the most exposed other marine aquaculture. of Auckland's
being Rural and Coastal land area could
Settlement zones), and less
than 1% of the future urban
be exposed to
zone is exposed across sea level sea level rise
rise scenarios investigated here. this century.
NOTE
36 * Vulnerability is not known e.g. there may be room for these to move/adapt with SLR.Figure 10: Exposure of Auckland to possible sea level rise scenarios Figure 11: Exposure of Auckland to coastal inundation coupled with sea level rise 37
04/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
4.7 Climate change impacts and risks for terrestrial ecosystems
Based on: Bishop, C. D. and Landers, Additionally many ecosystems Most of Auckland’s indigenous
T. J. (2019). Climate change risk have restricted spatial distribution ecosystems are already under
assessment for terrestrial species that make them more vulnerable threat from introduced animal
and ecosystems in the Auckland
to regional extinction from or plant pests, and clearance
region. Auckland Council technical
report, TR2019/015 changed environmental conditions and fragmentation as a result
or extreme events. of development and agriculture.
Auckland’s current climate is Climate change has the potential
classified as sub-tropical with to exacerbate these effects.
warm humid summers, mild
winters and plentiful rainfall. Ecosystem assessment There are several ecosystems
Ten regional ecosystems are that have highly localised or
Climate change will result in restricted distributions and so
classified as having severely
changed weather patterns and are more vulnerable to regional
restricted spatial distribution,
conditions, with accumulating extinction or severe reduction
six of which are critically
impacts, as well as increased of their range from a random
endangered. These are mostly
risk of extreme events that physical disturbance event. With
coastal and therefore are most
damage ecosystems. the increasing frequency and
vulnerable to severe weather
Rainfall is projected to increase events, flooding, erosion and severity of extreme weather
in intensity and decrease overall changed weather patterns. events due to climate change,
which will have a direct effect events such as landslides,
Native ecosystem maps were flooding or erosion can severely
on ecosystems that will be
overlain with projected sea impact the health of ecosystems.
subject to drought and flood
level rise and inundation In the worst-case scenarios,
conditions more frequently.
scenarios to understand the ecosystems can be completely
The varied ecosystems across effects on these habitats. inundated or destroyed.
Auckland will be affected Ten ecosystems were identified
differently, for example taraire as being at risk; where more Coastal areas are particularly
and rimu forests are more than 10% of their area is prone to the effects of climate
susceptible to drought stress. vulnerable to a storm surge change due to their exposure
Changes in the pattern of drought event. Of those, nine are to storm events, salt deposition
conditions have the potential to native ecosystems that are and rising sea levels.
alter Auckland’s ecosystems. classified as endangered
or critically endangered.
38Species most at risk include The compounding
bats, reptiles and amphibians,
invertebrates, birds and plants cumulative effects
with restricted or exclusively of climate change
coastal distributions. Many
will affect our
already vulnerable or endangered
species will experience greater native ecosystems.
stresses from climate change.
Seabirds are particularly at risk
as they are most affected by
sea level rise, storm events and
destruction of their habitats
and nesting colonies.
How Auckland can adapt Auckland is a
Further research is recommended seabird hotspot
to understand different with 24 species
ecosystems. Currently there is
breeding in
a lack of detailed knowledge on
how different ecosystems and the region.
their species components react
to climate change and so future
Seabirds are at
predictions cannot be accurately risk as they are
made, particularly as accumulating most affected by
impacts of climate change will
sea level rise.
impact species uniquely.
3904/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
4.8 Climate change risks for marine and freshwater ecosystems
Based on: Foley, M.M. and Carbines, Understanding the interplay • Ocean acidification affects
M. (2019). Climate change risk between climate change the condition and survival of
and vulnerability assessment for impacts and other human- marine species, particularly
marine and freshwater ecosystems.
induced stressors is paramount those that have hard, carbonate
Auckland Council technical report,
TR2019/014 to protecting culturally, structures, such as shellfish,
economically, and ecologically urchins (kina), marine snails
Aquatic ecosystems are highly important species. and plankton, all of which are
susceptible to the projected important components of
effects of climate change. Assessment undertaken
Auckland’s marine ecosystems,
Increases in air temperature The sensitivity of specific aquatic and a food source for many as
and water temperature, ocean species and habitats in the well as important aquaculture
acidification, sea level rise and Auckland region to potential species like mussels.
changes in circulation and storm climate change stressors was
• Lower nutrient concentrations
intensity can all affect marine and assessed and results indicate:
could result in fewer
freshwater ecosystems.
STRESSORS ON primary producers, such
Whilst the National Institute of MARINE ECOSYSTEMS as phytoplankton and
Water and Atmospheric Research macroalgae which form the
• Increasing water and air
projections illustrate individual base of the marine food web
temperatures in freshwater
variables, it is difficult to model and underpin the stability
streams and marine habitats
how changes in multiple variables of marine ecosystems.
affect reproduction and growth
will cumulatively affect aquatic rates. This can also result in a • Increasing sea level rise reduces
ecosystems. In addition, the shift in species distributions the viability of some marine
projected climate-related changes and create conditions that habitats, particularly intertidal
are occurring within the broader allow for invasive species to habitats and coastal vegetation
context of environmental change establish new populations that are at the edge of the
and human-induced stressors, in New Zealand. Intertidal coastal margin and those
including sedimentation, pollution, mud flats and rocky reefs species that rely on exposure to
disturbance, and harvesting. are highly sensitive to both air throughout the tidal cycle.
water and air temperature. • Changes to rainfall and
storm patterns may cause
declines in water quality due
to increased sediment and
other contaminant runoff.
40Aquatic ecosystems • Reduced wind speed will affect
mixing dynamics in the surface
are affected by of lakes, altering the physical
the accumulating and chemical conditions of
impacts of climate the water column. Less ability
for freshwater species to Rising
change. The health migrate also increases their temperatures
of these aquatic vulnerability if their habitat
will increasingly
degrades or is damaged.
ecosystems is stress marine
fundamental to The results of the assessment and freshwater
human wellbeing. can be seen in Table 3 overleaf. ecoystems.
These changes also need to be
STRESSORS ON considered with natural variability
FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS including long term climate cycles.
• Increases in air temperature Intact aquatic ecosystems provide
may result in increased stream a range of ecosystem services
temperature, particularly in that Auckland relies on every
places where there is little day, including oxygen production,
riparian vegetation for shade climate regulation, and food and
and in shallow streams clean water provision. Changing
characteristic of Auckland ecosystems will impact our
• Decreased rainfall will result ability to adapt. The health of
in decreased stream flow, these aquatic ecosystems is
reducing the amount of in- fundamental to human wellbeing.
water stream habitat available
for fish and macroinvertebrates.
• Heavy rain events can result in
increased sediment runoff from
the land, stream bank erosion,
and stream habitat scouring.
4104/ T EC H N IC A L REPORT SERI ES
TABLE 3 CLIMATE CHANGE SENSITIVITY MATRIX
FOR KEY AQUATIC SPECIES AND HABITATS
HABITAT/SPECIES WATER EXTREME NUTRIENTS OCEAN SEA LEVEL WATER
TEMPERATURE RAINFALL ACIDIFICATION RISE CIRCULATION
Intertidal mud flats High High Low Moderate High Moderate
Intertidal rocky reef High High Moderate High High Moderate
Mangroves Low Low Low Low High Low
Kelp forests High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High
Seagrass Moderate Moderate Low Low Moderate High
Subtidal rocky reef High Moderate Moderate High Low Moderate
Subtidal soft bottom Moderate High Low Low Low Low
Freshwater hard bottom Low High Moderate
Freshwater soft bottom Low High Moderate
Marine shellfish Moderate High Low High Moderate Low
Marine fish Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low
Freshwater fish High Low Low
Freshwater invertebrates Moderate High Low
How Auckland can adapt
Understanding the impacts of climate change and interactions with other
multiple stressors on the aquatic ecosystems is imperative to planning for
a more resilient Auckland.
Taking action to manage other ecosystem stresses such as habitat loss,
sedimentation and pollution that will be exacerbated by climate change
effects and reduce ecosystem resilience
Restoration of natural ecosystems to increase resilience
Undertaking ongoing New Zealand based studies to assess ecosystem risk.
4243 Devonport © Istock
05/ Additional and
emerging risks
In addition to A rapidly growing population puts pressure on the environment
through sprawl and urbanisation that inevitably encroaches
the risks already on the environment. Climate migrants are likely to come to
identified, there New Zealand from the Pacific Islands due to rising sea levels.
This will place further pressure on the country’s resources.
are other factors
– known and Food security is a broader issue than merely considering
available land allocated to agriculture. A changing climate will
emerging – that alter crop production and increase the risk of drought or flood, as
well as increasing the risk of new disease. New Zealand’s economy
may compound is heavily dependent upon agriculture, which may be affected by
with the effects the exacerbated effects of climate change on the land.
of climate change The magnitude of health consequences from climate change is
and potentially unknown. There is increased risk of extreme weather events that
could cause injury or damage to key infrastructure. New diseases
exacerbate them. and vectors may become established in New Zealand and events
such as extreme heat may cause acute health problems and
These could include land use exacerbate chronic illness, particularly in vulnerable populations.
change, increasing population
Saltwater intrusion will increase with rising sea levels and affect
and climate migrants, food and a greater area surrounding Auckland. This can pose risks to buried
energy security, pollution, global infrastructure such as utilities and transport tunnels, as well as
economy, and human induced agricultural land. It can also pose risk to artesian water supplies.
stressors. There is uncertainty as
to how exactly these effects may
compound or interact.
The cumulative effect of multiple stressors will also
pose emerging risks. While National Institute of Water
and Atmospheric Research predictions provide an idea
of the effects of individual variables, it is unclear what
the effect of multiple variables will be on the ecosystem
and Auckland. In the absence of this information, it
is critical that precautionary and adaptive measures
be taken in decision-making at every level.
It is imperative to keep researching, monitoring and
reviewing the impacts of climate change to continue filling
in the gaps and prepare. Collaboration is the way forward
44 for Auckland to create resilience amongst our communities.You can also read
