West Melbourne Waterfront - DEVELOPMENT POSITIONING ANALYSIS PREPARED EXCLUSIVELY FOR WMW DEVELOPMENTS PTY LTD - City of Melbourne
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West Melbourne Waterfront DEVELOPMENT POSITIONING ANALYSIS PREPARED EXCLUSIVELY FOR WMW DEVELOPMENTS PTY LTD
MELBOURNE PROFILE / 01 REQUIREMENT FOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH NEW DWELLINGS = OVER THE PAST 6 YEARS 2,435 76,000 Melbourne City Profile // According to the latest statistics, // The Victorian Government’s Plan the estimated resident population Melbourne has identified a clear of Melbourne was 116,413, an requirement for the urban renewal of increase of more than 11,000 key sites around inner Melbourne in people from the previous year. order to accommodate this significant demand for new dwellings. // By 2021 the City’s population is projected to increase to 145,000 // The City’s dwelling landscape continues and by 2031 to reach 189,000. to increase dramatically with demands of inner-urban, high-density dwellings // This population growth is forecast to continuing to escalate rapidly. In 2012 translate into demand for an additional there was a total of 58,395 dwellings 23,800 new dwellings in the 10 years within Melbourne – an increase of 16,358 to 2021 and an additional 24,700 new dwellings from 2006. This translates dwellings between 2021 and 2031. into an average annual increase of just // This total new dwelling demand over 2,700 dwellings per annum. equals 48,500, or a delivery of // The City’s employment base has 2,435 new dwellings per annum. also grown rapidly in the six years to 2012 to reach 439,172 equating to more than 76,370 new jobs created within the City, or growing by more than 12,730 workers per annum.
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT #1 INDUSTRY AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH West Melbourne Region Profile // Melbourne’s West covers the local // Predictions indicate that Melbourne’s government areas of Brimbank, West will accommodate more than 40 per Maribyrnong, Melbourne, Melton, cent of metropolitan growth over the next Moonee Valley, Hobsons Bay and 40 years1. By 2031 the region is expect to Wyndham. The region leads the attract around a quarter of metropolitan state and most of the nation in Melbourne’s labour force growth. population and economic growth. // The latest data available shows that, // The region covers an area of as at 2011 there were 51,401 business 1,331km² spanning from the inner in the region of which 89 are large city through to the middle ring and firms with over 200 employees each. outer-urban / semi-rural areas. // The region is set to lead industry and // The region is experiencing rapid employment growth in Victoria over the growth. In 2001 the area’s resident next 30 years and will host around 13 population accounted for 11.6% of per cent of metropolitan Melbourne’s the state’s population projected to total employment growth up to 2046. grow to account for 14% by 2016. // The area has a strong industrial base // At the time of the 2006 Census the with growing numbers of knowledge- area’s population was counted at just economy businesses underpinning over 611,500 persons to reach 716,510 commercial growth throughout the area. persons at the time of the 2011 Census // The development of new commercial (an increase of more than 28%). businesses within the area is considered // The region is currently experiencing crucial to facilitate economic growth one of the highest concentrations and investment within the region, to of population growth seen in enhance local employment opportunities Australia in recent times. and to enable a higher rate of employment participation closer to home in order to reduce reliance on the city’s congested transport system. 1 Western Melbourne RDA Committee Regional Plan 2013-2016
MELBOURNE PROFILE / 03 MOST SIGNIFICANT URBAN RENEWAL PROGRAM IN VICTORIA West Melbourne Suburb Profile // The suburb of West Melbourne is // The employment profile of West located three kilometres north- Melbourne indicates a population west of the Melbourne CBD that principally works in professional, fronting the Maribyrnong River. clerical and managerial roles, and that accounts for more than 68% // The area is principally occupied by of the suburb’s population. This is freight operations and industries co- unsurprising given the suburb’s close located with industrial activities. proximity to Melbourne’s CBD. // The Dynon Urban Renewal Precinct is // Furthermore, the population is well- on the cusp of the commencement of educated with 32% holding technical a major urban renewal program, which, or tertiary qualifications. This is in conjunction with the surrounding in stark contrast to that recorded precincts of Hobsons Road, Josephs throughout Victoria of 15%. Road and EGate will form one of the most significant urban renewal programs not // A total of 96% of the dwelling only in Victoria but also in the nation. landscape of West Melbourne is overwhelmingly dominated by either // At the time of the 2011 census West apartments or townhouses. Melbourne was home to 3,744 persons and is forecast to grow by 12,952 persons // Apartments alone account to reach to 16,696 by 2036.2 This strong for 62% of all dwellings. rate of growth will translate into an // Townhouses/ semi-detached underlying demand for new dwellings, dwellings account for the which is likely to grow exponentially in remaining 34% of all dwellings. line with the delivery of both hard and soft infrastructure into the suburb. // Over time, in line with the rollout of an appropriate urban renewal // The demographic characteristics program the suburb will see a lift of the suburb highlight a resident in the proportion of apartments, as population that is predominantly parcels of land are developed in the Gen-X and Gen-Y (people aged 20-39) direction of high-density dwellings. living in high density environments. 2 Forecast.id
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT // 2011 Census data for West Melbourne // The suburb is a particularly popular shows that couples without children are area for renters with 60% of all dwellings the dominant household type accounting held under rental tenure, which is for 31% of all households and a further over double that recorded across 26% of households are comprised of lone Victoria (26%) and Melbourne (27%). person households. Family households // Residents of West Melbourne are (couples with children / single parents typically high income earners with / other family) make up 22% of the median weekly individual incomes population with the remaining 20% measuring just under $800 per week at occupied by group/share households. the time of the 2011 Census, compared // An analysis comparing the population with $560 throughout wider Victoria. of West Melbourne with the state of // The combined tenure and income profile Victoria reveals a significant difference in of the resident population of West the household composition between the Melbourne points to a demographic which two. The proportion of couples without has the propensity and willingness to pay children households across Victoria is higher rents than those across the state. 10% lower than West Melbourne, the number of lone person households is // Throughout the suburb’s rental market, 17% higher in West Melbourne and the the most recent data reveals the median number of group/share households weekly rents being achieved within the is 17% higher in West Melbourne. suburb were at a 21% premium for one- bedroom apartments, a 31% premium // The primary implication of this for two- bedroom apartments and a 38% data is that the demand within premium for three-bedroom apartments the suburb is primarily for one compared with the state average3. and two bedroom dwellings. 60% RENTED HIGH RENTAL DEMAND 3 Department of Human Services, May 2014
MELBOURNE PROFILE / 05 West Melbourne Dwelling Supply / Demand // At the time of the 2011 census West Melbourne was home to 3,744 persons and is forecast to grow by 12,952 persons to reach to 16,696 by 2036.4 // This projected growth in population is estimated to translate to a base demand for 5,890 new dwellings over the 25 years to 2036. // Taking into consideration there has been no significant delivery of dwellings in West Melbourne over the population forecast period between 2011 and 2013, the estimated undersupply of new dwellings within the suburb currently sits at around 706. WEST MELBOURNE UNDER SUPPLIED MARKET DEMAND FOR 5,890 NEW DWELLINGS 4 Forecast.id
Urban Renewal Precincts
URBAN RENEWAL PRECINCTS / 07 The West Melbourne Waterfront redevelopment (adjoining the Dynon Urban Renewal Precinct) // The West Melbourne Waterfront // With development structuring and redevelopment occupies a funding in place, the estimated time strategic position within the Dynon for market release, pending planning Urban Renewal Precinct. approvals, is for December quarter 2014. This timeframe for market release // The site is bordered by the Maribyrnong will unquestionably act as a critical River, Dynon Road and Kensington Road. catalyst for the urban renewal of the // The site is adjacent not only to the surrounding areas and precincts. Dynon Urban Renewal Precinct but the // Key fundamentals of the development approved redevelopment precincts of will be activation of the Maribyrnong E-Gate, Hobsons Road and Josephs River frontage through pedestrian and Road. The development’s proximity to cycle paths (as part of the Melbourne each of these critical Urban Renewal Bicycle Plan 2012-16) and strong Areas facilitates a high level of pedestrian linkages with existing connectivity between each of these public transport infrastructure. precincts and the Maribyrnong River. // Not only will these important pedestrian // The current proposal for the site is and cycle networks facilitate less the construction and delivery of 490 reliance on private vehicular transport dwellings, 20,000m2 in commercial but will encourage increased patronage space, a 90-room hotel and 400m² of the public transport system and, of ground floor retail space. on completion, afford the community // On completion it is estimated the a live/work/play environment. development will be home to more than 950 residents, will create 1,000 new jobs and commercial businesses within the site NEW will contribute an estimated $220 million in Gross State Product (GSP) each year. 950 RESIDENTS // The provision of the hotel rooms will 1,000 NEW create capacity for over 19,000 visitors with a subsequent accommodation expenditure of $4.6 million. JOBS $220 MILLION IN // An analysis of the development of similarly-sized benchmark urban renewal precincts by KPMG reveals that projects such as the West GROSS STATE PRODUCT Melbourne Waterfront redevelopment attract investment of $450 million5. 5 KPMG “Economic Advice: 156-180 Kensington Road, West Melbourne” – May 2014
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT NEW $$$$$ MAJOR TRAM INFRASTRUCTURE ROUTE INVESTMENT // The West Melbourne Waterfront // The site is well serviced by public development sits adjacent to a transport with three major train number of key employment and stations all located within walking educational nodes including Victoria distance. These stations include: University, the Port of Melbourne, // The South Kensington Railway Station is Docklands and the Melbourne CBD. within an 8 minute walk from the West // The Port of Melbourne currently Melbourne Waterfront redevelopment. generates around 15,700 full time // The Kensington Railway Station is equivalent jobs and subsequently an 18 minute walk or a 7 minute bus is a key driver of demand for journey from the subject site; and dwellings within the region. // The North Melbourne Railway Station // The University of Victoria’s Footscray is located 3 kilometres (or a 30 minute Nicholson and Footscray Park campuses walk) from the West Melbourne collectively have student enrollments Waterfront redevelopment. over 17,000, underpinning a strong demand for dwellings within the area. // As detailed in the previous section, it is estimated that the suburb of West // Road infrastructure immediately Melbourne is currently experiencing a surrounding the site will afford the shortfall of just over 700 new dwellings. resident and working community with strong linkages to the Tullamarine // Based on this analysis there is a clear Freeway, Moonee Ponds, the Melbourne requirement for the delivery of new City Centre, Kensington, Footscray, dwellings into the suburb in order to Parkville, the West Gate Freeway and not only service underlying demand Docklands via the CityLink Freeway. but also to ensure sustainable levels Dynon Road also provides strong of median price and rental growth and connectivity between the subject contain the upward pressure currently site and the Melbourne CBD. being placed on the cost of living.
URBAN RENEWAL PRECINCTS / 09 6 BILLION RENEWAL - 10,000 NEW RESIDENTS Dynon Road Urban Renewal Area // The Dynon Road Urban Renewal Area good access from the North Melbourne location falls under Plan Melbourne’s station and the south of Arden-Macaulay Central Subregion containing the to the CBD and Footscray. It will also municipalities of Melbourne, Stonnington, assist in achieving an even spread of Maribyrnong, Port Phillip and Yarra. land value and quality development through the Dynon precinct to the west, // The Central Subregion is currently as the area undergoes urban renewal. home to an estimated 485,000 people, projected to grow by an additional // The area is set to benefit from a major 230,000 to 280,000 persons by 20316. investment in infrastructure over the coming years which will not only stimulate // The region contains one of Melbourne’s economic and employment growth largest employment nodes - the Port throughout the region but also will play of Melbourne which is Australia’s a critical role in providing housing for largest container port and is critical Melbourne’s rapidly expanding population. to Victoria’s continued economic growth and development. // Major projects proposed in and around the area include: // The Dynon Road Urban Renewal Area plays an important economic // The East-West Link role in contributing to the City of // Melbourne Metro Melbourne’s economy principally through the transport, manufacturing, // Proposed Melbourne Airport Rail wholesale and distribution industries. Link which will travel through North Melbourne Train Station (which is in // The plan for the area’s renewal will close proximity to West Melbourne provide economic stimulus not only Waterfront redevelopment). This will to the City’s local economy but the increase the demand for dwellings broader Victorian economy. In doing within immediate access to the North so, the area is considered to play a Melbourne Train station from the 14,000 critical role in the generation of new strong workforce of the Melbourne jobs within Melbourne’s inner west. Airport. Construction set to start in // A new east-west tram route is proposed 2017 with estimated completion in along Dynon Road from the Footscray 2023. The Airport Rail Link forms part central activities district and station of the Melbourne Rail Link project in the west, via E-Gate and Footscray with a total value of $8-11 billion. Road to Docklands and the CBD. In addition, tram links from Dynon Road to Spencer and Victoria Streets are also being considered. This will provide 6 Plan Melbourne – May 2014
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT Surrounding Urban Renewal Precincts E-GATE // Feasibility studies are currently // The development timeframe for the underway by Major Projects Victoria precinct is anticipated to occur across into the 20 hectare E-Gate Precinct 15-20 years with a projected end which is located to the east of the value of $6 billion with an estimated Dynon Urban Renewal Precinct just two commencement date of 2015. kilometres from the Melbourne CBD. // On completion E-Gate will become a new // The site is bordered by Footscray CBD suburb the size of a regional city. Road and Dynon Road with an active // The vision for the site is to deliver a frontage along Moonee Ponds Creek. range of supporting amenities including // E-Gate has been identified as playing sports fields, public open space, a a critical role in addressing the future community library and a new school. housing and economic needs of Victoria // Consistent with the State Government’s with planning focused around the delivery future plans for Melbourne, E-Gate will of an end population of around 10,000 deliver a diverse range of high density persons and an estimated 50,000m² dwellings that will attract a variety of of commercial and retail space. demographic groups creating a vibrant // The precinct has immediate and cosmopolitan community. access to three major existing // Importantly, the precinct’s direct linkage railway stations, namely: with the Dynon Urban Renewal Precinct // Kensington Railway Station - 9 will ensure a high level of connectivity minute journey to Melbourne between the two communities with each Central Railway Station. precinct set to benefit from the significant complementary investment in each other. // North Melbourne Railway Station – 11 minute journey to Melbourne Central Railway Station and a 30 minute walk (3km) from subject development. // South Kensington Railway Station with services operating to Melbourne Central Railway station in 14 minutes via a transfer at North Melbourne Railway Station.
URBAN RENEWAL PRECINCTS / 11 MAJOR CYCLING + PEDESTRIAN NETWORKS HOBSONS ROAD PRECINCT JOSEPH ROAD PRECINCT // The five hectare Hobsons Road // The Joseph Road Precinct is situated precinct is located to the north of the within the Footscray Central Activity Area West Melbourne Waterfront site. (CAA) with the south-east proportion of the precinct being zoned Priority // The site is bordered by Hobsons Road, Development Zone and is used for a Kensington Road, the Maribyrnong combination of industry and commercial River and the railway line. uses. The precinct covers an area of // The precinct has been rezoned as an approximately 15 hectares and will play urban renewal, mixed-use precinct a key role in the future delivery of jobs with a long-term vision for delivery. and housing through inner Melbourne. // The principal focus of development // The Joseph Road Precinct will connect will be for the delivery of the much- to Footscray Station and the Footscray needed new dwellings required within CAA through a renewal and new the area to service Melbourne’s construction of pedestrian, cycling rapidly growing population. and road networks. The cycling and pedestrian networks will take priority // The long-term plan is for predominately over road networks in order to facilitate residential development providing a range a more active and engaged community. of dwellings and some commercial offices. // Consistent with Plan Melbourne’s vision // Development of the precinct is for Urban Renewal of the broader area, anticipated to commence in late 2014 the master plan sets the framework for with the release of the Hobson’s Lodge the delivery of mixed-use developments mixed-use development comprised which not only stimulate economic of 178 dwellings in a configuration growth and new jobs in the area but of one, two and three bedroom will deliver much needed housing apartment types and a small portion for the city’s growing population. of retail and commercial tenancies. // It is estimated that by 2031 // This initial development is the the Precinct will contain more first of five land parcels zoned for than 4,000 new dwellings7. redevelopment within the precinct. // Furthermore, in accordance with plans for the Dynon, E-Gate and Hobsons Road Areas, the land’s frontage along the Maribyrnong River will be activated for pedestrian and bicycle use. 7 Maribyrnong City Council
20 Minute City
20 MINUTE CITY / 13 WEST MELBOURNE 20 MINUTE CITY // The West Melbourne Waterfront // Our detailed analysis of the site’s development is ideally situated to deliver proximity to key hard and soft on the principals of the 20 minute city. infrastructure reveals a development opportunity which will afford both // Following is a detailed list of major residents and workers a high quality amenities and infrastructure of life through capitalization on all located within 20 minutes of existing infrastructure and amenity. the subject site via foot, public transport and/or private vehicle. PUBLIC UNDER 20 MINUTES WALKING TRANSPORT VEHICLE PUBLIC TRANSPORT NODES South Kensington Train Station 7 minutes - 2 minutes Footscray Train Station 16 minutes - 2 minutes Macaulay Train Station 20 minutes - 4 minutes Newmarket Train Station 20 minutes - 4 minutes North Melbourne Train Station - 10 minutes 5 minutes Southern Cross Train Station - 13 minutes 7 minutes Melbourne Central Train Station - 20 minutes 8 minutes Kensington Train Station 15 minutes - 2 minutes Seddon Train Station - 12 minutes 6 minutes Yarraville Railway Station - 16 minutes 8 minutes Flinders Street Train Station - 18 minutes 9 minutes Middle Footscray Train Station - 18 minutes 5 minutes Flagstaff Train Station - 19 minutes 6 minutes Firefly Bus Terminal - 16 minutes 10 minutes Hopkins Street/Leeds Street Tram Stop 16 minutes 14 minutes 3 minutes Irving Street Tram Stop - 12 minutes 3 minutes Nicholson Street Tram Stop - - 4 minutes Racecourse Road Tram Stop 20 minutes - 4 minutes
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT PUBLIC UNDER 20 MINUTES WALKING TRANSPORT VEHICLE PARKS / OPEN SPACES Footscray Park 22 minutes - 4 minutes JJ Holland Park 5 minutes - 2 minutes Lynch’s Bridge Park 7 minutes - 1 minute Henry Turner Memorial Reserve - - 7 minutes Wonderland Fun Park - - 7 minutes RETAIL / SHOPPING Queen Victoria Market - - 8 minutes Newmarket Shopping Plaza 20 minutes - 4 minutes Coles Express, Kensington 11 minutes - 4 minutes IGA Yarraville - 18 minutes 9 minutes Coles Express, Footscray 10 minutes 14 minutes 4 minutes Metrowest Shopping Centre, Footscray - 16 minutes 5 minutes Costco Docklands - - 6 minutes Footscray Market 19 minutes 14 minutes 3 minutes Highpoint Shopping Centre - - 9 minutes Harbour Town Melbourne - - 7 minutes Footscray Plaza Shopping Centre - 17 minutes 4 minutes Southgate Shopping Complex - - 12 minutes DFO South Wharf - - 9 minutes QV Shopping Centre - - 9 minutes
20 MINUTE CITY / 15 PUBLIC UNDER 20 MINUTES WALKING TRANSPORT VEHICLE EDUCATION St Monicas Catholic Primary Footscray School 12 minutes 12 minutes 17 minutes Footscray City Primary School 30 minutes - 7 minutes Footscray North Primary School - 20 minutes 10 minutes St John’s Primary School - - 11 minutes Intergraded Education of Excellence 14 minutes - 2 minutes University of Victoria – Footscray Nicholson Campus - 18 minutes 5 minutes University of Victoria – Footscray Park Campus - 17 minutes 5 minutes University of Victoria – Sunshine Campus - - 14 minutes University of Victoria – City Queen - - 8 minutes University of Victoria – City Flinders - - 10 minutes University of Victoria – City King - - 7 minutes Footscray City College - - 5 minutes Maribyrnong Secondary College - - 8 minutes Footscray City College (Secondary) - 17 minutes 8 minutes North Melbourne Primary School - 17 minutes 9 minutes St Michael’s Catholic Primary School - 16 minutes 9 minutes St Aloysius Catholic Secondary College - 15 minutes 7 minutes St Joseph’s Catholic Secondary College - - 9 minutes Simonds Catholic Secondary School - - 10 minutes Gilmore Girls Secondary College - - 5 minutes Meridan International Secondary School - - 9 minutes St Augustine’s Catholic Primary School Yarrraville - 19 minutes 8 minutes Holy Rosary School 15 minutes - 3 minutes
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT PUBLIC UNDER 20 MINUTES WALKING TRANSPORT VEHICLE CHILD CARE FACILITIES Saltwater Child Care Centre - 20 minutes 5 minutes Wimble Street Child Care Co-Op - - 10 minutes Melbourne City Child Care Centre - - 10 minutes Kensington Turkish Child Care Centre 16 minutes 7 minutes 3 minutes ABC Developmental Learning Centre 20 minutes - 16 minutes Maribyrnong Family Day Care Scheme 20 minutes - 2 minutes Aussom Family Day Care 16 minutes - 2 minutes COMMUNITY Footscray Community Arts Centre 14 minutes 19 minutes 2 minutes Kensington Community Children’s Centre 9 minutes - 1 minute Dynon Bird Sanctuary 3 minutes - 1 minute Flemington Racecourse 20 minutes - 6 minutes Royal Melbourne Showgrounds - - 6 minutes MAJOR EMPLOYMENT NODES Melbourne Airport - - 16 minutes Port of Melbourne - - 20 minutes Melbourne CBD - - 10 minutes Southbank - - 13 minutes Docklands - - 11 minute
20 MINUTE CITY / 17 PUBLIC UNDER 20 MINUTES WALKING TRANSPORT VEHICLE HEALTH The Royal Victorian Eye & Ear Hospital, East Melbourne - - 12 minutes Royal Children’s Hospital, Parkville - 16 minutes 11 minutes Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville - 16 minutes 11 minutes Royal Women’s Hospital, Parkville/Carlton - 16 minutes 8 minutes Western Hospital - 20 minutes 7 minutes Population Health Sunshine Hospital - 20 minutes 4 minutes Mandalay Family Clinic 17 minutes 12 minutes - Yarraville Village Family Medical Centre - 19 minutes 9 minutes LePhan Medical Centre 20 minutes 14 minutes - Millennium Medical Centre Footscray - 16 minutes 5 minutes The Western Medical Centre - - 8 minutes Ashley Street Medical Centre, Footscray West - - 12 minutes Flemington Medical Centre - - 6 minutes Peter Maccallum Cancer Institute - - 12 minutes Seddon Dental - 20 minutes 7 minutes Paisley Dental on Barkly 20 minutes 16 minutes - Source: Resolution Research, Public Transport Victoria – May 2014
Residential Market Fundamentals
RESIDENTIAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS / 19 4.1% GROWTH P.A. Residential Apartment Market Fundamentals // Melbourne City LGA – West Melbourne / inner Melbourne // Maribyrnong LGA Catchment Area. // West Melbourne For the purpose of gaining a comprehensive // Maribyrnong understanding of local market fundamentals, the following residential apartment markets // Kensington (which make up our West Melbourne / inner // Footscray Melbourne catchment area) have been analysed: // Southbank MELBOURNE CITY APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 // The Melbourne Local Government Area // Demand for high-density dwellings (LGA) has shown strong median price within Melbourne has remained growth over the past five years, averaging consistent over both the medium 4.1% to the year ended December 2013. (5 year) and long (10 year) periods, averaging just under 4,800 per annum. // Over the longer term (10 year period), the average price of an apartment // At the time of undertaking this research, in Melbourne City has grown by the median price of an apartment 3.4%. On a linear trend basis, median in the Melbourne LGA was the third apartment values have recorded most expensive out of the seven areas an annual lift of $19,000 over the comprising our catchment area analysis. ten years to December 2013. The LGA’s median apartment value as at December 2013 sat at $495,000. MELBOURNE CITY APARTMENTS (LGA) 2003 TO 2013 $600,000 8000 7000 $500,000 6000 $400,000 5000 $300,000 4000 3000 $200,000 2000 $100,000 1000 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT SOLID GAINS IN MEDIAN PRICE 3.7% P.A. MELBOURNE CITY LGA APARTMENT RENTAL MARKET // Over the past five December quarters // Growth across the two-bedroom to December 2013 median weekly apartment market has averaged 1.5% per rents throughout the Melbourne annum and across the three- bedroom City LGA have all sat beneath 2%. market has averaged 1.6% per annum. // Growth across the one bedroom apartment market has averaged 1.7%% per annum. MARIBYRNONG CITY APARTMENTS (LGA) 2003 TO 2013 // The Maribyrnong LGA has recorded // Demand for high-density dwellings within solid gains in median price growth over Maribyrnong has remained relatively the past five years, averaging 3.7% to consistent over both the medium the year ended December 2013. (5 year) and long (10 year) periods, averaging around 960 per annum. // Over the longer term (10 year period), the average median apartment price // At the time of undertaking this research, in Maribyrnong has been stronger than the median price of an apartment the short-term growth rate of 4.7%. On in the Maribyrnong was the second a linear trend basis, median apartment most affordable out of the seven areas values have recorded an annual lift of comprising our catchment area analysis. $21,173 over the ten years to December The LGA’s median apartment value as 2013, which is the second highest at December 2013 sat at $385,000. rate of linear price growth recorded throughout the catchment area. MARIBYRNONG CITY APARTMENTS (LGA) 2003 TO 2013 $450,000 1800 $400,000 1600 $350,000 1400 $300,000 1200 $250,000 1000 $200,000 800 $150,000 600 $100,000 400 $50,000 200 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
RESIDENTIAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS / 21 MARIBYRNONG LGA APARTMENT RENTAL MARKET // Over the past five December quarters, // Followed by two-bedroom apartments median weekly rental growth throughout that have also recorded impressive the Maribyrnong LGA has been strong. growth averaging 3.4% per annum. // Across the one bedroom apartment // Median weekly rental growth across market rents have grown by a the three-bedroom apartment market particularly strong average annual has averaged 2.9% per annum over growth rate of 4.9% per annum. the past five December quarters. WEST MELBOURNE APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 // West Melbourne’s apartment market // The dominance of higher-priced has recorded a lackluster performance townhouse-style developments over both the medium (5 year) and long within the area underpins these (10 year) timeframes. In the five years higher priced developments and to December 2013, the suburb’s median reveals an opportunity for the delivery apartment price has grown by an average of smaller apartment types in the of 0.6%, with the long-term (10 year) form of high-density dwellings. growth rate only marginally higher at 1.4%. // On average the market has recorded // However, the suburb recorded the second an average of between 105 and 89 highest median apartment price for apartments per annum over the the year ended December 2013 out of medium and long terms respectively. each of the suburbs that make up the // On a linear trend basis, median catchment area. This prevailing high price apartment values have recorded an compared with its similarly high median annual lift of $6,778 per annum over price in 2003 explains this low rate of the ten years to December 2013. average annual median price growth. // At the time of undertaking this research, // Based on the prevailing values across the median price of an apartment in the suburb it is clear that there is a the suburb of West Melbourne as at requirement for the introduction of more December 2013 sat at $520,000. affordable product into the market place. WEST MELBOURNE APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 $600,000 200 180 $500,000 160 140 $400,000 120 $300,000 100 80 $200,000 60 40 $100,000 20 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT PREMIUM MARKET WEST MELBOURNE-NORTH MELBOURNE APARTMENT RENTAL MARKET // Over the past five December quarters 1 BEDROOM MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT 2009-2013 to 2013, median weekly rental $295 growth within West Melbourne-North $290 Melbourne has been consistent. $285 $280 // Median weekly rents for one-bedroom $275 apartments have grown by an average $270 annual rate of 2.7% per annum. For the $265 most recent December quarter the $260 $255 median weekly rent of a one-bedroom $250 apartment was recorded at $290. $245 $240 // Growth across both the two- and 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 three-bedroom apartment market Source: Resolution Research, Department of Human Services – Victoria – May 2014 has averaged 1.4% per annum. // For the December quarter 2013, the median weekly rent of a two- 2 BEDROOM MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT 2009-2013 bedroom apartment was recorded at $440 $430 per week, and a three-bedroom $420 apartment at $600 per week. $400 $380 // At the time of undertaking this $360 research, West Melbourne’s gross $340 rental yield sat at 3.7% with a $320 prevailing vacancy rate of 3.2%. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, Department of Human Services – Victoria – May 2014 3 BEDROOM MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT 2009-2013 $605 $600 $595 $590 $585 $580 $575 $570 $565 $560 $555 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, Department of Human Services – Victoria – May 2014
RESIDENTIAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS / 23 MARIBYRNONG APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2014 // The suburb of Maribyrnong has shown // At the time of undertaking this research, strong median price growth over the the median price of an apartment past five years, averaging 4.8% to in Maribyrnong sat at $467,000. the year ended December 2013. // The Victorian State Government does // Over the longer term (10 year period), not provide rental data for the suburb the average price of an apartment of Maribyrnong therefore an analysis in Maribyrnong has grown by 4.9%. of the suburb’s rental market has not On a linear trend basis, median been included within this report. apartment values have recorded an annual lift of $25,291 over the ten years to December 2013, which is the largest rate of linear growth recorded throughout the catchment area. // Demand for high and medium- density dwellings within Maribyrnong has remained consistent over both the medium (5 year) and long (10 year) periods, averaging just under 190 per annum. 4.8% P.A. GROWTH MARIBYRNONG APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2014 $600,000 350 $500,000 300 250 $400,000 200 $300,000 150 $200,000 100 $100,000 50 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT 5.4 % HIGH GROSS RENTAL YIELD SOUTHBANK APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 // The suburb of Southbank has recorded // Demand for high and medium-density relatively subdued median price growth dwellings within Southbank has remained over both the medium and long terms, constant over both the medium (5 year) averaging 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. and long (10 year) periods, averaging around 250 per annum, which is the third // On a linear trend basis, median apartment strongest market in terms of demand. values have recorded an annual lift of $16,986 over the ten years to December // At the time of undertaking this research, 2013, which is the third lowest linear the median price of an apartment in growth rate throughout the catchment. Southbank sat at $525,000, which is the most expensive of all of the suburbs analysed within the catchment area. SOUTHBANK APARTMENT RENTAL MARKET // Over the past five December quarters // Average annual median weekly rental to December 2013 median weekly growth across the two-bedroom rental growth within Southbank has market has been recorded at 1.5% per been relatively subdued principally due annum and three-bedroom median to the large volume of stock available weekly rents have risen by an average for rent at any one given time. annual rate of 2.2% per annum. // Supporting this is a prevailing vacancy // At the time of undertaking this research rate of 4.7% as at May 2014. Southbank’s gross rental yield sat at 5.4%. // Median weekly rents for one- bedroom apartments have grown by an average of 1.3% per annum. SOUTHBANK APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 $600,000 800 700 $500,000 600 $400,000 500 $300,000 400 300 $200,000 200 $100,000 100 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
RESIDENTIAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS / 25 0.9 % LOW VACANCY RATE KENSINGTON APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 // Kensington’s apartment market has // Demand for high and medium- performed better in the medium density dwellings within Kensington (5 year) term than the long term, has remained consistent over both recording average annual growth the medium and long term periods, rates of 4.0% and 2.8% respectively. averaging just 106 per annum. // On a linear trend basis, median // For the year ended December 2013, apartment values have recorded the median price of an apartment an annual lift of $15,015 over the in Kensington sat at $475,000. ten years to December 2013. KENSINGTON-FLEMINGTON APARTMENT RENTAL MARKET // Over the past five December // At the time of undertaking this quarters to 2013 average annual research Kensington-Flemington’s median weekly rental growth gross rental yield sat at 4.7%. within Kensington-Flemington has // Rental availability within the suburb been reasonably consistent. is particularly tight with a prevailing // Median weekly rents for one-bedroom vacancy rate of 0.9% as at May 2014. apartments have grown by an average // To put this into perspective, a annual rate of 2.8% per annum. vacancy rate of 3.0% is considered // Average annual median weekly rental indicative of a balanced rental growth across the two-bedroom market where supply is in line with market has been recorded at 1.9% demand. Evidently, Kensington- and median weekly rents of three- Flemington’s apartment market is bedroom apartments have grown currently in a state of undersupply. by an average of 3.2% per annum. KENSINGTON APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 $600,000 200 180 $500,000 160 140 $400,000 120 $300,000 100 80 $200,000 60 40 $100,000 20 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT 7.4 % STRONG GROWTH PER ANNUM FOOTSCRAY APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 // Over the medium term, Footscray’s // Demand for high and medium- apartment market has been the standout density dwellings within Footscray has performer in relation to median price remained consistent over both the growth, averaging 7.4% per annum in medium (5 year) and long (10 year) the five years to December 2013. periods, averaging 225 per annum. // Over the longer term (10 year period), // For the year ended December 2013 the average price of an apartment in Footscray’s apartment price sat Footscray has grown by 3.4%. On a linear at $368,000, making it the most trend basis, median apartment values affordable in the catchment area. have recorded an annual lift of $18,855 over the ten years to December 2013. FOOTSCRAY APARTMENT RENTAL MARKET // Over the past five December quarters // Rental growth across three-bedroom to 2013 median weekly rental growth apartment market has been the within Footscray has been strong. Rents stand-out performer recording an across the one-bedroom apartment average annual growth rate of 4.1%. market have grown by an average // At the time of undertaking this annual rate of 3.5% per annum. research Footscray’s gross rental // Median weekly rental growth across yield sat at 5.1% with a prevailing the two-bedroom market has also vacancy rate of 3.6% as at May 2014. been solid with rents growing by an average annual rate of 2.9%. FOOTSCRAY APARTMENTS 2003 TO 2013 $400,000 450 $350,000 400 $300,000 350 $250,000 300 $200,000 250 $150,000 200 $100,000 150 $50,000 100 $0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Resolution Research, The State of Victoria – May 2014 SALES VOLUME MEDIAN PRICE
RESIDENTIAL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS / 27 OVER THE PAST FIVE DECEMBER QUARTERS TO 2013, MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTAL GROWTH WITHIN WEST MELBOURNE - NORTH MELBOURNE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.
Population Growth + Demand
POPULATION GROWTH + DEMAND / 29 10,000+ DEMAND FOR NEW RESIDENTS NEW DWELLINGS 47,080 Population Growth and Subsequent Dwelling // In summary, based on State Government’s Demand Projections – West Melbourne / population projections to 2031, we inner Melbourne Catchment Area calculate that between 2014 and 2031 there will be a growth in population of For the purposes of gaining a comprehensive 57,303 across the five suburbs analysed understanding of the future residential which is likely to translate into a base dwelling requirements of the study area the dwelling demand of 26,130 new dwellings. following areas have been analysed: // Projections for both the Melbourne City and Maribyrnong Local Government // Melbourne City LGA Areas reveal a total growth in // Maribyrnong LGA population of just under 100,000 new residents, translating to demand for // West Melbourne (suburb) an additional 47,080 new dwellings // Maribyrnong (suburb) // Kensington (suburb) // Footscray (suburb) // Southbank (suburb)
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT POPULATION POPULATION DEMAND FOR DEMAND FOR GROWTH GROWTH NEW DWELLINGS NEW DWELLINGS (TOTAL) (PER ANNUM) (TOTAL) (PER ANNUM) MARIBYRNONG LGA Estimate in 2014 82,218 Forecast for 2031 111,189 28,971 1,704 11,588 682 MELBOURNE CITY LGA Estimate in 2014 121,058 Forecast for 2031 192,040 70,982 4,175 35,491 2,088 WEST MELBOURNE Census 2011 3,744 Forecast for 2031 13,502 9,758 488 4,435 222 MARIBYRNONG Census 2011 10,168 Forecast for 2031 19,252 9,084 454 3,364 168 KENSINGTON Census 2011 9,790 Forecast for 2031 13,901 4,111 206 1,869 93
POPULATION GROWTH + DEMAND / 31 POPULATION POPULATION DEMAND FOR DEMAND FOR GROWTH GROWTH NEW DWELLINGS NEW DWELLINGS (TOTAL) (PER ANNUM) (TOTAL) (PER ANNUM) FOOTSCRAY Census 2011 13,193 Forecast for 2031 30,861 17,668 883 7,682 384 SOUTHBANK Census 2011 11,303 Forecast for 2031 27,985 16,682 8,341 8,780 439 5 suburbs 57,303 10,372 26,130 1,307 LGA’s 99,953 5,880 47,079 2,769 Source: Resolution Research, City of Melbourne & Forecast i.d. – May 2014
Transit Oriented Developments
TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTS / 33 // Transit oriented developments or TODs TRANSIT ORIENTED are developments around transport hubs that are unique and highly successful DEVELOPMENTS – BENEFITS models of mixed-use development. AND FLOW-ON EFFECTS // The single underlying principle of a // Transit oriented developments have successful TOD is its proximity to a a variety of environmental benefits range of public transport, but most incorporated into their dwelling and importantly, rail lines. This principle master-plan design. These include ensures that residents and workers water harvesting, common area solar are afforded convenient and rapid lighting, cross ventilation, low emission access to the development allowing appliances, low VOC paints (Volatile for a broader resident demographic Organic Compounds) / carbon neutral and a diverse working population. paints and the incorporation of materials which have been developed using // Research into property prices in the world’s best environmental practices. United States found properties located near a transit station experienced higher // However, the biggest impact transit values than comparable properties oriented developments have on without transit access. This research the environment is their ability found that a concentration of residential, to remove the reliance of private office, and retail space near transport vehicular transport for the bulk of hubs (within 800 metres), facilitate residents for the majority of time. increases in the value of those properties. // Carbon dioxide is one of the main // Most interestingly is the premium paid for greenhouse gases that cause climate an apartment located within 400 metres change – the amount of CO2 released of a train station, identified as 45%. into the atmosphere as a result of an individual’s daily activities is commonly referred to as their “carbon footprint”. The average person’s carbon footprint is 4.483 tonnes of CO2 with more than 40% of this coming from personal transport LIVING WITHOUT A CAR (more particularly, cars and motorbikes). HAS HUGE FINANCIAL & SOCIAL BENEFITS ACCORDING TO THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW, GETTING RID OF ONE CAR PER HOUSEHOLD COULD CUT 13 YEARS OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS, WHICH MAY ALLOW RETIREMENT TO OCCUR 10 YEARS EARLIER, OR PROVIDE AN EXTRA $400,000 IN MORTGAGE PURCHASE ABILITY.
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT AVERAGE PERSON’S ANNUAL CARBON FOOTPRINT (TONNES) // Although Carbon dioxide emissions // The graph below charts the significant from vehicles have been reducing difference in environmental impact (per since 2002, there is a vast difference kilometre) between an individual who between Australian emissions and relies on the use of a private vehicle those recorded in European countries, and one who relies on public transport with Australian emissions significantly (namely train) – 133g vs 60g = 73g or 45%. higher. This is principally due to a distinct lack of policies seeking to reduce the reliance on vehicular emissions. AVERAGE PERSON’S ANNUAL // Transit oriented-developments play a key role in both the United States and 1.796 CARBON FOOTPRINT (TONNES) TRANSPORT the European Union in the reduction of carbon emissions and subsequent improvement in air quality, by creating communities that do not rely on cars as their principal mode of transport. 2.687 HOME + APPLIANCES INDIVIDUAL’S CARBON EMISSIONS PER KILOMETRE BY TRANSPORT TYPE // Transit oriented developments adopt a it is expected that transit oriented highly sustainable approach to mobility development will become one of the management by focussing on the most desirable living environments use of “streets not roads”. The focus on both a national and global scale. is on maximising people movement, // The opportunity to live without a car not vehicular movement, which has not only has huge financial and social significant flow on cost benefits and benefits but also offers a much safer delivers a high level of amenity and alternative to vehicular traffic. Worldwide, public safety for all pedestrians. there are more than 2,500 fatalities and // Many cities throughout the United States 50,000 injuries each day from traffic and Europe are approaching this through accidents. According to the World Health what are called “complete streets”. This Organization, over 1 million people die new movement aims to create streets each year in motor vehicle accidents. where mobility is managed to favour // Residents and users of transit-oriented public transport, walking and cycling in developments are typically characterised addition to lowering the speed of traffic. by lower car use and ownership than In Kensington High Road in London, the their counterparts in conventional urban traffic accident rate has been halved with areas8. The volume, reliability and the implementation of this concept. regularity of public transport combined // According to research undertaken for with a high level of amenity both within Time magazine, the average motorist and in the immediate surrounds of a will spend six months of their life waiting transit-oriented development vastly for red lights to change, and over five reduces the requirement for a private years of life stuck in traffic. As society vehicle. The fiscal effect of living becomes more and more time poor, within a transit-oriented development 8 Friedman, Gordon & Peers - 1995
TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTS / 35 has been found to have an increase in // facilities works as a powerful disincentive disposable income, according to the to car ownership, with nearly half of all Centre for Transit-oriented Development. households not owning a vehicle at all and the number of multiple-car-owning // The significant cost savings that are families have also dropped to zero. achieved by residents of transit-oriented developments who forgo private vehicle // The transit-oriented development ownership in favour of public transport model, by placing little to no reliance usage are immense. According to the on private vehicle usage, encourages a Australian Financial Review, getting more active lifestyle which has a flow- rid of one car per household could on effect of a high level of health and cut 13 years of mortgage payments, wellbeing. With access to a vast range of which may allow retirement to occur amenities within walking distance of each 10 years earlier, or provide an extra apartment, residents of a transit- oriented $400,000 in mortgage purchase ability. development undertake a greater degree of incidental exercise than their suburban // For residents of transit-oriented counterparts. On average, residents developments, particularly with undertake around 20 minutes per day major public transport access to key or more of incidental exercise within employment and retail nodes, not only a TOD precinct, which is significantly does the requirement for a vehicle higher than that achieved within become vastly reduced (or in fact traditional residential environments. The nullified) but also the cost savings pedestrian linkages also serve to offer accrued as a result of utilising public a safer, community-based environment transport in place of a private vehicle than typical suburban roads. allow for a much better quality of life in a location that residents may // Apartment living is traditionally occupied, not otherwise be able to afford. in the main, by a younger demographic, Transit-oriented developments have // In the German city of Freiburg residents consistently demonstrated themselves of the Vauban transit-oriented to attract a much broader range of development who own cars are obliged demographic groups than stand- to purchase or rent a parking space in alone medium and high density one of two multistorey garages at the developments. Young families, retirees, end of the transit- oriented development young professionals, key workers and precinct, a greater distance on foot students typically live side by side within from most houses than the nearest transit-oriented developments, all drawn tram stop. The explicit cost of these to their respective dwellings by the superior lifestyle on offer, compared with standard development models. // Throughout the evolution of the transit- INDIVIDUAL’S CARBON EMISSIONS oriented development model, research PER KILOMETRE BY TRANSPORT TYPE has consistently shown that residents of transit-oriented developments are abandoning the unsustainable and CAR 133 costly home in the suburbs, for a more sustainable and affordable dwelling that offers an unmatched level of amenity, BUS 89 access, safety and community. TRAIN 60 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Source: Resolution Research – Defra – May 2014
WEST MELBOURNE WATERFRONT WHY INVEST IN AN URBAN RENEWAL AREA / TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT? Urban Renewal Areas (URA’s) and Transit AMENITY AND COMMUNITY Oriented Developments (TODs) are // URAs and TODs attract a wide and characterised by a number of features unique range of business, retail and that offer a superior investment recreational amenity commensurate to opportunity including: the investment and population growth. // Once the key fundamentals are in place; ACCESSIBILITY a resident population in medium and // The trend towards inner city living is high density housing, retail amenity more popular than ever with a strong and commercial office space occupied consumer focus towards convenience by a strong working population, these and accessibility over size. developments become destinations in themselves which become “mini- // TODs are afforded with a large and cities” servicing the surrounding diverse range of public transport options suburbs and fostering a strong offering residents a superior level of sense of community and culture. accessibility to major employment, recreational and retail nodes. RENTAL DEMAND // As a consequence of the above INFRASTRUCTURE characteristics, URAs and TODs AND INVESTMENT experience greater rental demand // URAs and TODs are preceded by and achieve a rental premium significant public investment in over the broader marketplace. infrastructure and transport. // This attracts unprecedented investment CAPITAL GROWTH by private firms of which is a major // Research into property prices in the driver for residential dwelling demand. United States found properties located near a transit station experienced GROWTH: higher values than comparable // URAs experience extraordinary population properties without transit access. growth as a result of the investment // It clearly demonstrates that a driving increased levels of demand. concentration of residential, office, // This offers ground floor opportunities for and retail space near transport hubs both the residential and business sectors. (within 800 metres), facilitates increases in the value of those properties. // Most interestingly is the premium paid for an apartment located within 400 metres of a train station, identified as 45%.
TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTS / 37 YOUNG FAMILIES, RETIREES, YOUNG PROFESSIONALS, KEY WORKERS AND STUDENTS TYPICALLY LIVE SIDE BY SIDE WITHIN TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTS, ALL DRAWN TO THEIR RESPECTIVE DWELLINGS BY THE SUPERIOR LIFESTYLE ON OFFER, COMPARED WITH STANDARD DEVELOPMENT MODELS.
Whilst the information has been carefully compiled no warranty or promise as to its correctness is made or intended. The information outlined within this document represents a subjective interpretation by Resolution Research & Marketing Pty Ltd (ABN 29100642368) and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Interested parties should undertake independent inquiries and investigations to satisfy themselves that any details herein are true and correct. No forecasts are being made by Resolution Research & Marketing about potential capital gains. Past information about capital gains or price growth does not imply such gains or growth will be made in the future. The material in this publication is copyright. This document cannot be reproduced without the express permission of Resolution Research & Marketing Pty Ltd. Date compiled May 2014. This information is current for six months from compilation. The product and pricing information contained within this document is based on price lists, brochures and third party information obtained throughout the course of our research. This information has been verified to the best of our ability but Resolution Research & Marketing Pty Ltd accepts no responsibility for reliance on this information.
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