Weekly Credit Update 7 April 2015 - Danske Bank
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Weekly Credit Update Senior Analyst Lars Holm +45 45 12 80 41 7 April 2015 laho@danskebank.com Investment Research Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 21 of this report www.danskebank.com/CI
Contents - Market news - Best and worst performers - Trade ideas - Company news - Chart pack - List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations 2
What’s on our mind - General credit market news • Last week was rather quiet due to Easter. The iTraxx Main index widened by 1bp while the iTraxx Crossover narrowed by 2bp. • Senior unsecured spreads from banks came under some pressure as Germany published a law proposal on bank resolution. The draft stated that senior unsecured bondholders would face losses before any other unsecured creditors (currently they rank pari passu), which would also address some of the legal challenges with both MREL (minimum requirement for eligible liabilities) and TLAC (total loss absorbing capacity). We earlier warned that creating these loss absorbing cushions could be legally challenging, as bailing in some part of unsecured liabilities (bonds) and not all would probably require new bankruptcy laws in many jurisdictions. The German proposal with statutory subordination would solve many of these challenges and pave the way for a ‘Tier 3’ layer in banks’ capital structure (senior to subordinated but subordinated to other senior). Existing bonds are also included in the draft proposal but as retrospective legislation is prohibited under German constitution, it is uncertain if the legislation will also cover existing bonds. • With regard to broader newsflow, the weaker than expected US labour market report for March released on Good Friday got some attention. Gains in non-farm payrolls slowed to 126,000 (cons: 245,000) and the gains in the previous months were revised lower. Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets • On a more positive note, Iran and the P5+1 world powers on Thursday reached a framework agreement on containing Iran’s nuclear programme. The impact on oil prices was modest, with most of the initial decline reversed the following day. 3
Best and worst performers - Investment grade 1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies -30.1 SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018 -12.6 TDC A/S EUR 2015 -28.8 Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017 -10.7 Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016 -14.3 Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020 -8.6 Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017 -12.3 TDC A/S EUR 2015 -8.2 SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018 -10.2 Danske Bank A/S SEK 2019 -7.1 Nykredit Bank A/S EUR 2015 -9.5 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB SEK… -6.4 Investor AB EUR 2016 -7.3 Carlsberg Breweries A/S EUR 2019 -5.9 Sampo Oyj EUR 2016 -6.2 TeliaSonera AB EUR 2031 -5.8 Volvo Treasury AB EUR 2017 -6.0 DNB Bank ASA EUR 2020 -5.6 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB EUR… -5.6 TDC A/S EUR 2022 -5.3 DNB Bank ASA EUR 2017 -1.1 Pohjola Bank Oyj EUR 2019 11.3 Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2022 -1.0 Jyske Bank A/S EUR 2017 11.4 Nordea Bank AB EUR 2022 -0.9 Swedbank AB EUR 2016 11.5 Sampo Oyj EUR 2021 -0.6 Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA EUR 2023 11.8 TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025 -0.6 Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017 12.1 TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027 -0.6 Danske Bank A/S EUR 2016 12.5 Statkraft AS EUR 2022 -0.5 Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB EUR… 12.7 Telenor ASA EUR 2024 -0.3 SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016 16.4 Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017 -0.3 Swedbank AB EUR 2019 19.0 TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027 0.3 DNB Boligkreditt AS EUR 2018 19.5 TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Change in local currencies (bp) Change in local currencies (bp) Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 4
Best and worst performers - High yield 1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies -35 Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay… -101 Prosafe SE NOK 2020 -14 Stora Enso OYJ USD 2016 -53 Seadrill Ltd USD 2015 -13 Nokia OYJ USD 2019 -52 Prosafe SE NOK 2019 -13 DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 -50 Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2016 -12 SSAB AB SEK 2017 -47 Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019 -11 YIT OYJ EUR 2016 -47 Finnair OYJ EUR 2049 -11 Finnair OYJ EUR 2049 -41 Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019 -10 Stora Enso OYJ SEK 2015 -41 Tallink Grupp AS NOK 2018 -10 Stena AB EUR 2020 -38 Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2016 -8 Stora Enso OYJ EUR 2018 -36 Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2018 19 Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018 84 Stena AB EUR 2017 21 Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2018 95 Stena International SA USD 2024 28 Klaveness Ship Holding AS NOK 2020 103 Stena AB USD 2024 28 Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018 125 North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018 29 Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019 127 Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019 37 North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018 203 Seadrill Ltd USD 2017 42 Seadrill Ltd USD 2017 229 Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018 53 Seadrill Ltd USD 2020 238 Seadrill Ltd USD 2020 77 North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019 275 North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019 157 Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD… 344 Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD… 200 150 100 50 0 -50 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 Change in local currencies (bp) Change in local currencies (bp) Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets 5
Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 – priced attractively (published on 19 March 2015) • Earlier this month [i.e. in March] Vestas issued a 7Y EUR500m senior unsecured bond – the EUR - credit curves Vestas 2.75% 2022. Indicative ASW offer 280 (bps) • Bond documentation/structure (Vestas 2022) 270 260 includes the following key terms: cross default, 250 240 VWSDC '22 (NR/NR) negative pledge (save for carve-out of up to 230 220 EUR150m as permitted secured debt and/or 210 200 assets securing non-recourse debt), change of 190 180 control put (>50% of control/shares). 170 160 Global BB+ • We are not aware of the terms present in the 150 140 Corporates: BBB- EUR1,000m bank RCF facilities, which are 130 120 likely stricter than the bond terms. 110 100 • Given our view of Vestas as a ‘BBB-’ credit ,we 90 80 regard the current pricing as attractive. 70 60 50 • In our view, a ‘fair’ credit spread for this type of 40 30 bond would be in the range of 130-150bp. 20 10 • Our ‘fair spread assessment’ is estimated as 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 the 7Y EUR BBB- curve plus a 60-80bp Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets discount due to the lack of an official credit rating and the inherently politically-driven volatility in the business model. 6
Recent trade ideas Recent ideas Type Trade Idea Outright Buy Vestas 2022. The Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 trades cheaply to a EUR corporate BBB curve. Opened 19/03/2015 Start spread 245 Currency trade Close of trade SSAB Recent performance in the SSAB EUR bond has closed the earlier 19bp gap between the EUR and the Closed 10/03/2015 SEK 2019 bonds. Start spread -2 Outright Buy Tallink 2018. FRN Tallink 2018 in NOK trades cheap to a global median ‘BB-’ credit curve (converted into NOK). Opened 27/02/2015 Start spread 470 Outright CITCON '3.75 We believe that CITCON'3.75s trade at an attractive level relative to the 'BBB' curve. Opened 10/02/2015 Start spread 108 Outright EGASDK '20 EGASDK '20's, which we see as 'B' indicatively trade way too cheaply relative to the industrial 'B' curve. Opened 02/02/2015 Start spread 661 Sector spread Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB We have an ‘Overweight’ recommendation on SEB and an ‘Underweight’ recommendation on Nordea and Opened 26/01/2015 AT1 don’t believe a 14bp pick-up for a four-year maturity extension is worthwhile Start spread -8 Curve spread Switch from SECUSS '17 to The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBB- curve while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the Opened 23/01/2015 SECUSS '21 BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021 vs. the Securitas 2017. Pick up 57bp (z-spread) for a four-year maturity extension. Start spread 81 Outright SASSS '17 We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity Opened 18/12/2014 See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations Start spread 807 Source: Danske Bank Markets 7
Company news from the past week Name News Implication Vestas (Overweight, DBM: 'BBB-') announced 1,332MW of orders in Q1 15, which is a record-high for Q1. Of this, 38% or 506MW came from Brazil and China. Given the increasing demand for electricity Vestas in emerging markets, we consider this region to be an important growth driver for Vestas long term. It Credit Positive is therefore encouraging to see Vestas increase its foothold in the region. We view the announcement as moderately credit positive. Source: Danske Bank Markets 8
Selected new issues Selected new issues Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM 01/04/2015 Stadshypotek Ab 1.75% USD 1 000 m Apr/20 AA- / Aaae / 37 . Source: Danske Bank Markets 9
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100 Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100 Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 10
Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks Euro vs. US CDS indices - IG (Markit) Euro vs. US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch) Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 11
Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields 3M TED-spread, US and euro area Euro swap curve spread EUR/USD basis swaps Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 12
Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales US, net sales Sweden, net sales Norway, net sales Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 13
Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted Purchasing manager indices Euro area y/y change in bank lending Euro area lending standards Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts] 14
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ahlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads Rosendal Akelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable BBB- Louis Landeman Ambu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Arla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads Rosendal Atlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHT Avinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Bank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Beerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable Øyvind Mossige Billerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Stable Mads Rosendal Bw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind Mossige Cargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads Rosendal Carlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Cermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar Bakken Citycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Emil Hjalmarsson Color Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas Ripa Com Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola Heldal Corem Property Group Ab BB- Stable B+ Emil Hjalmarsson Danfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen Danske Bank A/S A Neg A3 A Stable Dfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas Ripa Dlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads Rosendal Dna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola Heldal Dnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Dong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Dsv A/S BBB Stable Brian Børsting Eg Holding B Stable Jakob Magnussen Eika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Eika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Electrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Elenia Oy Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT Source: Danske Bank Markets 15
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Elisa Oyj BBB+ Stable Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHT Entra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola Heldal Farstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Øyvind Mossige Fingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Finnair Oyj BB Stable Brian Børsting Fortum Oyj A- A2 A- Neg Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHT Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB Stable BB- Sondre Stormyr G4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHT Getinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis Landeman Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B- Sondre Stormyr Heimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis Landeman Hemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB A- Stable Emil Hjalmarsson Hkscan Oyj BB Stable Brian Børsting Hoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel Bergin Husqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Emil Hjalmarsson Ikano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Investor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHT Iss A/S BBB- Pos Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT J Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian Røed Jernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel Bergin Jyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHT Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads Rosendal Klaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian Røed Loomis Ab BBB- Stable Brian Børsting Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Louis Landeman Meda Ab BB- Stable Louis Landeman Metsa Board Oyj BB Stable B1 Pos Mads Rosendal Metso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Ncc Ab BBB- Stable Emil Hjalmarsson Neste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Nokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT Nokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen 16
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Nordax Finans Ab BBB- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Nordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT North Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB- Neg B+ Sondre Stormyr Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Neg B+ Brian Børsting Norwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola Heldal Nykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHT Nynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob Magnussen Ocean Yield Asa BB BB- Øyvind Mossige Odfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian Røed Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Olympic Ship As B+ Stable B Øyvind Mossige Orkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola Heldal Outokumpu Oyj B Pos Mads Rosendal Pohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Stable A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Posten Norge As A- Stable Ola Heldal Postnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel Bergin Prosafe Se BB Stable Sondre Stormyr Ramirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian Børsting Sampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHT Sandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Sas Ab B- Stable Wr Stable Brian Børsting Sbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHT Scania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Schibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola Heldal Seadrill Ltd BB Neg BB- Sondre Stormyr Securitas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHT Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHT Skanska Ab BBB+ Stable Emil Hjalmarsson Skf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHT Sognekraft As BBB Stable BBB Jakob Magnussen Solstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind Mossige 17
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Spar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Aaa T. Hovard / L. Holm Sparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Sparebank 1 Smn A2 A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT Sponda Oyj BBB- Stable Emil Hjalmarsson St1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob Magnussen Statkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT Statnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Statoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHT Steen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Stena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Niklas Ripa MARKET WEIGHT Stockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads Rosendal Stolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian Røed Stora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Storebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Nr T. Hovard / L. Holm Storebrand Livsforsikring As A- Neg Baa1 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sunnfjord Energi As BBB- Stable BBB- Jakob Magnussen Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis Landeman Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal OVERWEIGHT Svenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHT Swedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel Bergin Swedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKETWEIGHT Swedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHT Sydbank A/S Baa T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHT Saab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Emil Hjalmarsson Tallink Grupp As BB Stable BB- Niklas Ripa Tdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Neg Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT Teekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian Røed Tele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola Heldal Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT 18
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Telenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT Teliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal UNDERWEIGHT Teollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT Thon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Tine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Upm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Vasakronan Ab A- Stable Emil Hjalmarsson Vattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHT Vestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHT Victoria Park Ab BB- Stable B+ Louis Landeman Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets Volvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHT Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian Røed Yit Oyj B Neg Emil Hjalmarsson 19
Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Ola Heldal, Senior Analyst Head of Credit Research Industrials TMT +45 45 12 85 05 +45 45 12 85 19 +47 85 40 84 33 hova@danskebank.com brbr@danskebank.com olh@danskebank.com Louis Landeman, Senior Analyst Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Sondre Dale Stormyr, Senior Analyst TMT, Industrials Financials Offshore Rigs +46 8 568 80524 +45 45 12 80 41 +47 85 40 70 70 llan@danskebank.com laho@danskebank.dk sost@danskebank.com Mads Rosendal, Analyst Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Henrik René Andresen, Senior Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper Strategy, Industrials Credit Portfolios +46 8 568 80594 +46 8 568 80602 +45 45 13 33 27 madro@danskebank.com gabe@danskebank.com hena@danskebank.com Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy High Yield, Industrials Oil Services +45 45 12 85 03 +45 45 12 80 47 +47 85 40 54 91 jakja@danskebank.com niri@danskebank.com omss@danskebank.com Knut-Ivar Bakken, Senior Analyst Bjørn Kristian Røed, Senior Analyst Emil Hjalmarsson, Senior Analyst Fish Farming Shipping Real Estate, Construction +47 85 40 70 74 +47 85 40 70 72 +46 8 568 80634 knb@danskebank.com bred@danskebank.com emih@danskebank.com 20
Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is Lars Holm, Senior Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to the companies mentioned in this publication and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding the companies mentioned in this publication that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report. See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information. 21
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