Wahbung Our Tomorrows Imagined - Vision for the Next 50 Years - Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs
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Wahbung Our Tomorrows Imagined Vision for the Next 50 Years
Funded by the Government of Canada We acknowledge the financial support of the Government of Canada. This work is licensed by the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. For a copy of this license, see http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Contents
Introduction 4
The History of Wahbung 6
Perspectives on the Current Reality of the
Health of First Nations in Manitoba 8
Health Outcomes 8
Fiscal Context 11
Estimated Annual Expenditures
On-Reserve Health Care 13
Strategic Considerations 14 Quantification of the Scenarios 49
Four Possible Futures for the Health Per Capita Expenditures 50
of First Nations in Manitoba 16
System Performance 51
Using Scenarios to
Self-Determination 52
Create Better Futures 16
Client Satisfaction 53
Summary of the Four Scenarios 18
The Future We Want 54
Dominion 20
Our Shared Vision for
Implications for Mino Pimatisiwin 25
Mino Pimatisiwin in 2030 55
Dreamcatchers 26
Nine Strategies for Realizing this Vision 58
Implications for Mino Pimatisiwin 31
Guiding Principles for Relationships 59
All My Relations 32
Appendix A: About the Images 62
Implications for Mino Pimatisiwin 39
Appendix B: References for Text Boxes 63
Sun, Grass, and Waters 40
Implications for Mino Pimatisiwin 48 Appendix C: List of Contributors 65
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 3
Introduction
In 1971, the Chiefs of First Nations in Manitoba signed Wahbung:
Our Tomorrows, a position paper that represented a fundamental
step towards self-determination of First Nations people in Manitoba.
Today, nearly 50 years after this seminal work was done, the First
Nations of Manitoba continue to face a host of interconnected and
growing challenges, including a level of wellbeing that is worse
than in 1971. Outcomes and inequities are worsening in health,
education, economic wellbeing, and child welfare, all against the
backdrop of growing threats to First Nations self-determination,
culture, and language.
The Wahbung: Our Tomorrows Imagined initiative seeks to respond
to this unacceptable current reality by re-energizing the movement
towards the desired future articulated by Wahbung: Our Tomorrows.
Through several resolutions between 2017 and 2019, the Chiefs in
There are 63 Assembly mandated the Grand Chief of the Assembly of Manitoba
Chiefs (AMC) to initiate discussions with the federal and provincial
First Nations governments on the development of a collaborative process
in Manitoba that would lead to tripartite or double bilateral solutions for a
framework on health. The AMC was also mandated with scoping
and 5 distinct the jurisdictional authorities that would result in enabling policy and
legislation and the support of First Nation entities that are legally
Indigenous empowered to exercise these expanded authorities, consistent with
linguistic the inherent right of self-government.
groups.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 4
In order to form effective relationships that would methodology. Through this “braided” approach,
provide First Nations input and involvement in participants contributed their experiences,
the regional redesign of health systems, the AMC creativity, and collaborative spirit to collectively
proposed a two-track discussion approach, with answer four questions:
both tracks being complimentary and simultaneous:
Perspectives: How do we see, from our
Track 1, the Tripartite Planning & Negotiation different perspectives, the complex current
Structure, focused on the formal discussions reality of our lives?
and negotiations between First Nations and
government for a renewed health delivery Scenarios: How could – not will, not should –
system and jurisdictional framework taking a our lives unfold over the decades ahead?
population health approach.
Options: How could we deal with this
Track 2, the Wahbung: Our Tomorrows unpredictable but influenceable situation?
Imagined process, focused on creating a shared
vision and pathway towards Mino Pimatisiwin, Vision: What must we do to build a good life?
or the “good life”, informed by a collaborative
process to articulate the possible scenarios for Following this framework, the participants, which
the future of the First Nations of Manitoba. This included Elders, Knowledge Keepers, youth,
work sought to inform a needs-based health and First Nations leaders in health, education,
strategy and provide supporting evidence for community development, and child welfare
the jurisdictional framework in collaboration representing both rural and urban experiences,
with regional partners. worked together to create four scenarios
about how the next fifty years could unfold for
This document presents the work done in Track First Nations in Manitoba across seven social
2, Wahbung: Our Tomorrows Imagined. Led by determinants of health: Self-Determination,
the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs in partnership Language, Culture and Spirituality; Land and
with Southern Chiefs’ Organization (SCO), Environment; Social Services; Health Systems;
Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakanak (MKO), First Employment, Economic Development and Income,
Nations Health and Social Secretariat of Manitoba and Education.
(FNHSSM), and the Rady Faculty of Health
Sciences at the University of Manitoba (RFHS), These scenarios then supported further
and with support from Reos Partners, this initiative conversations to identify options for what could be
continues the important work that began with done to achieve Mino Pimatisiwin, ranging from
Wahbung: Our Tomorrows. community-level health services to negotiations
with the Government of Canada, and ultimately
With 63 First Nations in Manitoba and 5 distinct to create the shared vision presented in this
Indigenous linguistic groups, it is challenging not document. Both the scenarios and the vision
only to articulate a shared vision for the future that articulated in this document will serve as key
First Nations in Manitoba want to create, but also inputs into future discussions and negotiations
to agree on the path to get there. This process was with federal and provincial governments to
thus designed to work with this diversity to take a collaboratively develop a better way forward for
holistic view of the challenges and opportunities First Nations in Manitoba.
at hand. Together, the First Nations technical
leadership of the process (AMC, MKO, SCO
and FNHSSM) and Reos Partners co-created a
methodology that leveraged the strengths of both
First Nations knowledge and cultural systems with
Reos Partners’ Transformative Scenarios Process
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 5
The History of Wahbung
In 1971, the Manitoba Indian Brotherhood (now the 1. Treaty and Aboriginal rights
Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs) presented Wahbung:
Our Tomorrows to the federal government, 2. Land
outlining an agenda for action that included First
Nations’ inherent right to design and have full 3. Hunting, fishing, trapping and gathering rights
authority over their health, education, and child
4. Indian Act
and family services systems, informed by First
Nations worldviews, laws, and approaches. This 5. Culture
work was part of a national movement in response
to the federal government’s 1969 white paper on 6. Health and social services
Indian Policy. As part of Prime Minister Trudeau’s
plan for a “Just Society”, the Indian Policy was to 7. Education
remove the “special status” of Indians in favour of
supposed equality to everyone else. In essence, 8. Social development
however, it attempted to eradicate certain rights
and recognitions afforded to the original peoples 9. Economic development
of this land. Specifically, the topics in Wahbung:
Our Tomorrows included: 10. Reserve government
All across the country, Provincial and Territorial
Indian Organizations prepared position papers
expressing adamantly their views on the direction
they wanted to go to become self-reliant. The new
Indian Policy clearly was an abrogation of the rights
of Indians, and the Indian leaders, like Chief Dave
Courchene Sr. among many others, took action.
“The history and past Wahbung was a reflection of foundational First
Nation governance principles with the discussion
policies regarding the Indian and recommendations focused around ongoing
people cannot and must not relationships with the federal government.
be ignored, for their effects The work presented in this document owes its
foundations to this important work by the Manitoba
are with us all in the present Indian Brotherhood and their collaborators.
Indian fact. To deny the past
and to refuse to recognize
its implications, is to distort
the present; to distort the
present is to take risks with
the future that are blatantly
irresponsible”
- Wahbung: Our Tomorrows, 1971
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 6
Grand Chief Dave Courchene,
Lower Fort Garry, 1971
“Wahbung is a very significant
document that is part of our
history, where our people were in
a time of resurgence and a time
of struggling to break free.”
- Dave Courchene Jr.
“There was a hope, there was
a dream where things had to
improve and change.”
- Verna Kirkness
“It was a time of self-
determination and rethinking
of where we were and wanting
different, better relationships
with government.”
- Janet Fontaine
Wahbung: Our Tomorrows, 1971
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 7
Perspectives on the Current Reality of
the Health of First Nations in Manitoba
Health Outcomes
While it will be challenging to build a better future The data clearly indicates that the health system,
together, the First Nations of Manitoba must both provincial and federal, is failing First
not remain stuck in the current reality. Almost Nations through its suboptimal performance and
without exception, health and social indicators are investments. First Nations inherited a system that
worsening and call for our urgent attention. was never intended to serve our wellbeing, and
now we have to deconstruct, adapt, and rebuild
The health gap is widening because the underlying something that works for us. Inspired and guided
factors that negatively affect the health of First by Wahbung, we know we have to build a better life
Nation people, including the ongoing trauma of for our people and that we have to work together
colonization, generations of racism, poor housing, to achieve it, despite our diverse perspectives on
lack of clean water and imposed poverty, are not which we may not always agree. This work remains
being adequately addressed. Health inequity connected to our history, the context of the original
persists, and First Nations are being left further Wahbung vision, and is guided by the Elders.
behind while not being meaningfully involved in
decisions on health care. Throughout the Wahbung: Our Tomorrows
Imagined process, participants came together
This inequity is arguably the direct result of in multiple gatherings to build the scenarios
structural inequities. For many First Nations, those and vision presented in this document and to
structures are often colonially violent. It is obvious share their experiences and perspectives on
that contemporary colonization persists and, until what is happening today. An early step in the
interrupted, will never produce programs that process included a discussion about current
meet First Nations’ needs. Health outcomes will realities, a workshop designed to build a shared
not improve unless the system is redesigned and understanding of what influences the current
led by First Nations in all areas of service delivery. state of wellbeing for First Nations in Manitoba.
First Nations in Manitoba call upon both levels of Participants spent time in a circle listening to each
government to prioritize health investments and other share their stories and perspectives to help
self-determination discussions immediately. shed light why things are as they are today, and
they articulated their perspectives using the Events,
Patterns, Structures framework described below.
This framework uses the metaphor of a shoreline
to describe reality in terms of Events, the things
“Every system is we see happening (for example, a wave), Patterns,
the patterns we see in the things that happen (for
perfectly designed to example, a regular series of waves), and Structures,
get the results it gets.” such as power, relationships, geography, rules,
cultures, or mental models, that influence the
- W. Edwards Deming patterns we see (for example, the shore, weather,
and moon that influence the series of waves).
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 8
Structures
The structures - such as power, relationships, geography, rules,
cultures, or mental models- that influence the patterns we see (for
example, the shore and moon which influence the series of waves).
Patterns
The patterns we see in the things that happen
(for example, a regular series of waves).
Events
The things we see happening (for example, a wave).
The figure above summarizes the
perspectives on current reality
using this framework.
Events: Quotes:
Themes:
“The event that started it all was the invasion of our
homeland. It caused a lot of collateral damage and
Invasion of the homeland followed by
trauma we’ve had to endure. Our whole world was
imposed values, religion, and systems,
ripped away. With this came a new way of doing things,
and destruction of our way of life
those of a man ruled by his mind, not his spirit.”
Continued harm
“There has been 150 years of harm. Jurisdiction and
legislation have boxed us in. It’s about time we rise
Drug and alcohol abuse up. We are stepping out of the box and saying to the
government ‘that’s enough’.”
Government control over our lives
“Canada is built on unsolid ground. Two founding
nations is a myth. [It’s] hard to reconcile with false laws,
with 120 years of brainwashing since the Indian Act. We
were told we are no good. People will believe that.”
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 9
Patterns: Systemic Structures:
Themes: Themes:
Negative values associated with white Economic and education structures that were
supremacy built for us by others and do not reflect our
values and way of life
Continued imposition of Western ways onto our
people The challenge of decolonizing the mind
Continued effort by government to control our The power of our spirituality
people
The power and legitimacy of our own traditions
Rejection of traditional values and ways of life and way of life
Discomfort with difference and tension between Structures that enable ‘divide and conquer’
Western ways and our ways tactics by the government and focusing on our
problems rather than our solutions
Danger of continued or accelerated assimilation
Structures that perpetuate dependency
Perceptions that government has all the power
Quotes:
Dependency on the dominant system despite
its inadequacy “Canada is a federal state – there are different
powers at federal and provincial levels. Their
Quotes: Constitution is only half-written. There are words
like traditions, conventions, etc. from England.
“I think we are a strong people. But as we go into Where in the Constitution does it say that those
this work, more and more of these mental models traditions were the only ones? We’ve had those
are going to be clear. It’s going to be harder for thousands of years. When we do our pipe
to challenge them. I don’t think we have much ceremony, that is us invoking our Constitution.
comfort with holding uncomfortable truths.” We have to go back to our own ways.”
“First Nations people have to do a better job of “How do we decolonize the mind? We have
co-existence. We are drawing a hard line between talked about it again and again, but how do you
Western and First Nations, and I’m concerned do it? The challenge is for us to return back to
about how we are transmitting this to our young becoming one with the land. When you walk into
people, who walk the line. Do we tell them, ‘no, the forest in anger, the birds fly away. But if you
don’t play the video game or go on the iPad?’” offer tobacco and kindness, they come to you.”
“There are thousands of our young people across “We are in a system that creates division and
the universities in Canada and beyond, becoming hopelessness. The challenge is, how will we
lawyers, doctors, etc. But there’s only one thing create a vision that will be hopeful? That will
wrong with that: if we don’t listen to our way of be inspired?”
life, we will be the generation that fast-tracks
assimilation.”
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 10Fiscal Context
Funding for First Nations healthcare is very
complex and ever-changing, which makes a
clear-cut picture of who pays for what difficult to
represent. There are examples of time-limited
agreements in which the federal government
contributes to a First Nations health service
normally funded provincially, and vice versa. other factors such as governmental efficiency (or
Given constitutional arrangements, historical inefficiency), is unknown at this time. Considering
agreements, and institutional precedents that this, while a comparison of costs against non-
are constantly in flux, funding and delivery of reserve citizens may provide context for discussion,
healthcare for First Nations ordinarily on-reserve the real value of calculating these figures lies in
is quite different than for all other Canadians. The benchmarking the spending at this time. In this way,
federal government funds many services for First future spending may be measured against this, and
Nations residents on-reserve that is the jurisdiction successes or failures judged with this in mind.
of the province for other Canadians, such as
community health programs and public health Given all this, the first question to consider as
services. For Canadian residents not on-reserve, we move towards the future we want will be:
the federal government has a minimal role in “how much money will First Nations need to
the direct provision and funding of healthcare, operate their own health care system?” The
with the significant exceptions of Canada Health Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs commissioned a
Transfers (which provinces use to help fund their health care analytics study to better understand
healthcare systems), veterans’ healthcare, the current funding and expenditures, health transfer
Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), and payments, and future projections for a need-based
Non-Insured Health Benefits (NIHB) for First health care system. This analysis suggested that
Nations citizens living off-reserve. approximately nine hundred million dollars is spent
on First Nations in Manitoba living on reserve
It is important to recall that the basket of services annually, equating to $9,554 per First Nation on-
provided to First Nations people living on reserve reserve resident (compared to less than $5000
is different from that provided to some or all other for Manitobans living off reserve). This figure,
Manitobans. For example, the federal government which includes both federal and provincial health
provides for prescription drug coverage for the expenditures, suggests that health care costs for
latter through NIHB, a service unavailable to First Nations in Manitoba are approximately twice
others. Additionally, medical air transportation that of the average Manitoban. Yet, despite this
services provided to Northern regions (whether or difference, First Nations people experience poorer
not on reserve) tend to be very costly, significantly health outcomes.
increasing overall northern expenditures. The
extent to which costs for health care for First Whether they live on or off reserve, there are
Nations on reserve are driven by remoteness, significant disparities between First Nations and all
versus differences in provided goods and services, other Manitobans, a fact that points to the need
versus social determinants of health, versus for more funding. Comparable data between First
Nations and non-First Nations is often hard to
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 11come by, but the limited data that exists shows expenditures for healthcare services of Manitobans
significant disparities between the two populations in general and First Nations citizens in particular.
in Manitoba as well as Canada-wide. The 2019 Early estimates for the 2019/2020 CHT indicated
study by the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy a figure of over $97 million associated with on-
(MCHP), The Health Status of and Access to reserve First Nations, while provincial expenditures
Healthcare by Registered First Nation Peoples in are just under $356 million for the same group,
Manitoba, is the most recent scholarly publication a shortfall of approximately $259 million. This
that analyzes on- and off-reserve First Nations suggests that insured health services are currently
health status and healthcare utilization with a broad considerably subsidized by the provincial
array of indicators for Manitoba specifically. government. Even if current CHT payments were
to flow directly to First Nations, the payments
The MCHP analysis identifies deep disparities would remain significantly lower than needed, and
between First Nations and non-First Nation communities would be placed at risk for sizeable
Manitobans in the prevalence for a number of health deficits in purchasing insured health services. The
problems when looking at age and sex adjusted implication is that engagement with both federal
incidence rates. The rate of premature mortality is and provincial governments is necessary in order
over three times as high for on-reserve First Nations to fully fund health care. An overall analysis of on-
compared to non-First Nations Manitobans. Cervical reserve health care expenditures is provided in the
cancer rates are over twice as high for First Nations full consultation document prepared by Validus
on-reserve than non-First Nations Manitobans. Healthcare Analytics.
Furthermore, on-reserve First Nations are five times
as likely as non-First Nations to be hospitalized for Given these complexities and the various factors
ambulatory care sensitive conditions. which need to be considered in moving forward, a
comprehensive tri-partite initiative involving both
In an effort to move forward with First Nations-led levels of government and community partners is
health care delivery, some consideration has been needed to develop a First Nations-led health care
given to First Nations / Government of Canada system with sufficient resources.
bilateral negotiations. The funding provided to the
Province of Manitoba by the federal government
via the Canada Health Transfer (CHT) could, it
may be argued, be redirected to First Nations for
delivery of healthcare services. However, analysis of
on-reserve expenditure reveals that CHT payments
are substantially insufficient to cover provincial
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 12Estimated Annual Expenditures
On-Reserve 2019
CHT amount to Manitoba
Health Care
for On-Reserve First Nations:
2020 $97,626,051
Federal Health Expenditures Total Costs 1% Mental Health and Additions,
Primary Health Care, & Seniors
Contribution Agreements $230,910,000
NIHB $167,957,750 4% Other Health-Related Spending
Jordan’s Principle $77,680,000
Nursing Station Salaries $30,370,000 12% Medical Professionals
Administration $14,714,000
Hospital Salaries $10,780,000 22% Acute Care
Other Salaries $7,830,000
Residential Schools Programs $3,809,824 1% Other salaries
Subtotal $544,051,574
1% Hospital Salaries
Provincial Health Expenditures Total Costs
Acute Care $194,643,404 2% Administration
Medical Professionals $111,380,470
Other Health-Related 3% Nursing Station Salaries
$36,996,881
Spending
Mental Health and
Addictions, Primary Health $7,073,151 26% Contributions Agreements
Care, and Seniors
Long Term Care $2,332,538 19% NIHB
Various Admin $2,333,989
Regional Policies and
Programs
$1,055,700 9 % Jordan’s Priciple
Subtotal $355,816,133
Disclaimer: Prepared for the Assembly of Manitoba Total Annual Expenditures:
$900,006,467
Chiefs. This estimate represents the best current
knowledge of Validus Healthcare Analytics regarding
Provincial and Federal expenditures for on-reserve
First Nations health care delivery in Manitoba, as of
07-Oct-2019. It is very likely that the true expenditures Per capita: All Manitobans living off-
are somewhat different than those stated here. $9,554 reserve, per capita: $4,583
Ongoing research into new and existing data will
contribute to refining this estimate over time.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 13Strategic
Considerations
The scenarios described in the 1. Legal considerations – Treaties, legislation,
next section helped to create a policy and the “division of powers”.
shared vision for the wellbeing
of First Nations in Manitoba 2. Fiscal considerations – current costs and
by helping the First Nations future sustainability, distributed resources,
of Manitoba imagine what the economies of scale and need-based funding
future could be. It is clear that arrangements.
a situation in which the status
quo is carried into the future 3. Workforce considerations – education and
is not the world we want. It training needs, employment standards and
would see worsening health distribution, union agreements, clinical and
outcomes, reduced control, program leadership.
lower satisfaction with health
care, all at increased expense. All 4. Ethical considerations – patient safety,
collective efforts must steer us clinical standards, health equity and quality
away from this potential future. improvement.
The future we want is one 5. Moral considerations – the right and
in which we work towards control over one’s personal decisions and
full self-determination while community priorities.
strengthening existing
partnerships and building on 6. Social determinants considerations – the
technologies that support health of the individual is influenced by more
improved health and wellness than the health care system.
outcomes. In framing the future
authorities and structures
needed to realize this future,
First Nations need to consider
multiple jurisdictions and several
complex health system layers
in collaboration with provincial
and federal governments.
Some examples of important
considerations include:
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 14Up until now, all of these considerations have been justice that looks at the all social determinants
decided for us by one or both levels of Canadian to wellbeing as well the racial and social
government with little to no influence from First inequities in our systems and institutions.
Nations. After fifty years of political advocacy
and leadership, we are finally in a position to The conceptual framework shown below
plan, design and negotiate new arrangements highlights the relationships between structural
in health service provision and control. This, drivers, including colonialism, that influence
coupled with simultaneous federal and provincial the conditions of daily life and ultimately
health transformation projects, presents a timely health outcomes. It also highlights the
opportunity that First Nations have not seen importance of rights-based actions and
before and must act quickly, deliberately, and governance actions including in systems like
in as informed a way as possible to capture. health care. This framework was sourced from
Understanding what it will take to capture this the report, Just Societies: Health Equity and
opportunity will require us to take a population Dignified Lives, produced by the Pan American
health approach informed by a lens of health- Health Organization in 2018.
Social and Economic Inequities, Gender, Sexuality,
Intersectionality: Ethnicity, Disability, Migration
Structural Drivers Conditions of Daily Life Health Equity and
Dignified Life
Political, Social, Cultural Early Life and Education
and Economic Structures
Working Life
Natural Environment, Land Older People
and Climate Change Income and Social
Protection
History and Legacy,
Violence
Ongoing Colonialism,
Structural Racism Environment and Housing
Health Systems
Taking Action
Governance Human Rights
Building off the Wahbung: Our The future we want is one in which we
Tomorrows Imagined process and the work towards full self-determination while
considerations above, the following
pages offer our shared vision for
strengthening existing partnerships and
Mino Pimatisiwin. building on technologies that support
improved health and wellness outcomes.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 15Four Possible Futures
for the Health of First
Nations in Manitoba
Using Scenarios to Create Better Futures
These scenarios are stories about what could Scenarios play a particular role in strategizing.
happen in the future – not what will happen (a Because they are stories – in this case, fictional
forecast) or what should happen (a vision) – in the stories that are rooted in peoples’ experiences
wellbeing of the First Nations of Manitoba. today – and because they come in sets of multiple
different, plausible narratives, they enable informed
These scenarios were constructed by a team of debate without committing anyone to any particular
outstanding individuals representing diverse position. Scenarios enable us to deal with the reality
perspectives from the First Nations of Manitoba. that, although we cannot predict or control the
They created four scenarios based on their future, we can work with and influence it.
own diverse experiences and understandings,
and based on current trends including relevant Scenarios can be used to support the formation of
political, economic, social, cultural, and policy and strategy through the use of scenario-
international developments. based dialogues. The purpose of such dialogues
is not to redo the construction of the scenarios,
These stories of the possible evolution of but rather to use the scenario texts to discover
the current situation are intended to support what we can and must do. The most fruitful
conversations about how to achieve the Mino dialogues of this kind involve a representative
Pimatisiwin, the good life, for the First Nations of group of interested and influential actors from all
Manitoba. The purpose of the stories is to provide across the whole system in question. This system
a common framework and language to support can be a government, city, sector, community,
dialogue, debate, and decision-making. They are nation, or region. Diversity of actors is important –
intended to support an open and constructive not just friends and colleagues but also strangers
search for answers to core questions of strategy: and opponents.
What opportunities and challenges are we facing?
What are our options? What shall we do?
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 16There are four key steps for this kind of scenario-based dialogue.
First, the scenarios are presented through text, slide presentation,
storytelling, or video. Second, for each scenario the group
ad¬dresses the question, “If this scenario occurred, what would
it mean for us?” and works out the opportunities and challenges
that scenario poses. Third, the group deals with the question,
“If this scenario occurred, what could we do?” Finally, the group
steps back to the present and considers the question, “Given
these possible futures, what shall we do next?”
The four scenarios below, Dominion, Dreamcatchers, All
My Relations, and Sun, Grass, and Waters, explore different
possibilities for how the future could unfold in the next 50 years.
Scenarios enable us to deal with the reality
that, although we cannot predict or control
the future, we can work with and influence it.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 17Summary of the Four Scenarios
Dominion Dreamcatchers
Primary The dominant Settler society bulldozes First Upheavals caused by global climate change
Driving Forces Nations people. drive technological and cultural upheavals.
Self- First Nations lose status and become fully First Nations traditions mix with and are
Determination assimilated. Attempts to create unity among appreciated, appropriated, transformed, and
First Nations fail. monetized by other cultures.
Language, Language, culture, and spirituality are lost. Language, culture, and spirituality are practiced
Culture and Western culture dominates, misappropriates, in new and diverse ways and mixed with other
Spirituality and misinterprets First Nations culture. cultures. Tensions arise between those who find
the change invigorating and others who mourn
the loss of traditional ways.
Land and Land is degraded, homogenized, and Environmental crises drive technological
Environment urbanized, and First Nations become change that transforms living environments and
municipalities. Climate change and loss of infrastructure. Mainstream society incorporates
land base destroy traditional land-based First Nations environmental philosophies.
activities. As culture is transformed, First Nations take
different approaches to the land.
Social Services No First Nations-run social services or special Technological change revolutionizes social
services for First Nations people. services through virtual care. Cultural mixing
leads to universalized services without
cultural specificity.
Health All health care is provided by provincially-run, Technology lowers logistical barriers to
Systems Western systems. Health outcomes worsen. primary care access. Traditional healing is
available outside the health care system and
is blended with other teachings, which some
consider inauthentic and unsafe. Health
outcomes improve.
Employment, First Nations migrate to cities; most find Many First Nations gain online employment
Economic, limited employment or education. Colonial and entrepreneurship opportunities.
Development capitalist economic model dominates and de- Some are ill-equipped for a technology-
and Income stroys collective responsibility for community driven economy or are repelled by the
well-being. Tensions rise between the few First commodification of First Nations culture.
Nations people who get ahead economically Tensions rise between those who thrive and
and those who are excluded. those left behind.
Education First Nations attend provincial schools where Provincial curricula with a technology-driven
they experience racism and high drop-out blended pan-Indigenous cultural teachings and
rates, especially for low-income students. other cultural teachings are available. Commu-
nities with low access to technology follow a
provincial curriculum with language and cultural
teachings available only outside the schools.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 18All My Relations Sun, Grass, and Waters
Primary A balance of power between Settlers and First First Nations demand and achieve self-
Driving Forces Nations produces co-existence and constant determination.
negotiation.
Self- First Nations and Canada reach agreements for All five Nations gain sovereignty and assert
Determination respectful co-existence and Treaty implementation. their Nationhood. Different First Nations self-
First Nations gain political influence, but the Crown determine in different ways, and so differences
controls services and status frameworks. and disparities grow.
Language, The Crown makes significant investments in Language, culture, spirituality, and traditional
Culture and language and cultural revitalization. family/community roles return to pre-contact
Spirituality states for many First Nations. Tensions exist over
different communities’ and individuals’ spiritual,
religious, and cultural choices.
Land and Climate impacts reduce and land-based cultural First Nations territories and relationships with land
Environment activities increase as First Nations steward land and are restored or compensated, with a land base
water resources. Land-based cultural activities and large enough for self-sufficiency. Disputes arise
sacred sites are protected. between First Nations over territorial borders and
land rights.
Social Services Outcomes improve as First Nations control many Each First Nation designs and leads its services
services with more equitable funding, with services in its own way through self-sufficient systems.
remaining under control of the Crown. Some First Nation-to-Nation accords and agreements
Nations do not receive equitablev services, face govern how different legal systems harmonize.
racism in services, or are forced to use provincial
systems.
Health First Nations-led primary care systems with both Each Nation provides holistic care using
Systems Traditional and Western medicine on-reserve. Traditional and Western approaches as
Province runs off reserve and non-primary care, appropriate. Secondary, specialist, and
with more First Nations represented in provincial tertiary care occurs through Nation-to-Nation
health governance. Health care quality disparities collaborations and service purchase agreements.
decrease. Health outcomes improve.
Employment, Resource development and sharing agreements Economic self-sufficiency increases through
Economic, enable investments by First Nations in First Nations. increased land base, resource-sharing
Development Capitalism evolves with more progressive policies; agreements, reclaimed sharing economy values,
and Income benefits are unequal among First Nations. and trade with non-First Nations economies.
Different First Nations have different and, in some
cases, competitive economic opportunities and
strategies; economic conditions diverge.
Education Equitably funded, First Nations-led education Each Nation runs its own education system.
serves communities. Provincial schools serve urban Some pursue traditional, land-based education;
First Nations. Curricula improve representation of others go on to university.
First Nations history and perspectives.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 19Dominion
Today’s status quo conditions and trends in First Nations’
wellbeing continue into the future. Canada increasingly
shifts from a “mosaic” to a “melting pot” that is
dominated by Western culture, which erases First Nations
distinctiveness and autonomy. Big oil maintains its strong
influence globally and in Canada. As the dominant Settler
society bulldozes and absorbs minorities, the few First
Nations whose choices fit well with the dominant system
thrive, but most are increasingly marginalized.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 20Dominion
2019
HEALTH INEQUALITY
MEANS MORE CHRONIC
DISEASE IN FIRST NATIONS
In 2020, negotiations with Government over First Nations
self-government fail, and it is discovered that the Canadian
Government had no intention of truly sharing power or
recognizing sovereignty of First Nations. This failure causes
a cascading sequence of losses for First Nations self-
determination and wellbeing.
In 2021, the future of First Nations services is uncertain. Fearing
a further loss of control and resources for services, First Nations
health and social services organizations try to produce a report No Duty to Consult
that clearly demonstrates how underfunded the services are. Indigenous People on
Their aim is to strengthen their position in discussions with the Legislation
Canadian Government by showing unequivocal, comprehensive
evidence of the disparities and garner public attention to this In 2018, the Supreme Court
issue. However, the effort fizzles due to difficulty reaching a ruled that Canada’s lawmakers
common agenda and a lack of resources. do not have a duty to consult
with Indigenous people before
In 2022, the federal government opts out of health introducing legislation that
responsibility for Indigenous communities, and one provincial might affect constitutionally
system is applied for all First Nations. This system includes no protected Indigenous and
access to traditional medicines and teachings or holistic healing Treaty rights. The decision
and no investments in the social determinants of health. ruled against the Mikisew
The system neglects preventative care, and all health care Cree First Nation in Alberta,
expenditures are spent on sickness and hospitalization. Options which had argued that two
for traditional healing are limited and declining, as access to budget bills introduced by the
ceremonial lands and medicine erodes and the knowledge and former Conservative federal
wisdom begin to die out with the Elders. With health systems government in 2012 should
on reserve undermined and urban health systems ill-equipped not have passed before the
to meet First Nations needs’, along with unequal access First Nation was consulted.
to basic needs like housing and income, health status and The Nation argued that, since
disparities in life expectancy worsen. the bills amended regulatory
protections for waterways and
the environment, it threatens
their established rights to hunt,
trap, and fish. They lost the
case in a 7-2 vote.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 21Dominion
2024
RESERVES CONVERTED TO
MUNICIPALITIES TO ALLOW PIPELINES TO
RUN THROUGH TRADITIONAL TERRITORY
By 2023, there is a renewal of the ideas in the 1969 White
Paper, and the federal government seeks a mandate to abolish
the Indian Act, Treaties, Constitutional Recognition and Indian
Status. By 2024, Government begins implementing this mandate
by treating First Nations like municipalities. Despite First Nations
protests, lobbying and influence by the oil industry leads to
accelerated resource exaction and the destruction of the land,
while the effects of climate change compound the damage.
First Nations’ ability to live off the land suffers, and food security
is lost in many communities as natural food sources cannot be
maintained. Income inequality deepens. The Trans Mountain Pipeline
Meanwhile, First Nations education systems are called In 2018, the Supreme
“unsustainable and unaffordable”, funding is reduced drastically Court ruled that the Trans
while Government takes control and cuts off support for land- Mountain Pipeline Expansion
based education. The quality of education becomes further proposal had not been
segregated, and children are not prepared to play a role in appropriately reviewed by
society as adults. With no legislative base or funding authority the National Energy Board
for First Nations control of education, all First Nations students before approval, forcing an
attend provincially operated schools. There are no culture, additional review process,
language or land-based activities since there are no metrics that which the court noted could
show they are beneficial in the ways the government considers be kept short. They also
important. First Nations students who come from wealthier, ruled that that the federal
urban families do well, while low-income students predominantly government had failed in its
drop out by Grade 10. All First Nations students experience high duty to engage in meaningful
levels of racism, with those who attempt to resist the assimilation consultations with First
facing the most. Nations before approving the
project. Despite the ruling,
Federal Finance Minister Bill
Morneau pledged to move
the project forward.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 22Dominion
2029 2035
MORE FIRST NATIONS LIVE CHANGES TO THE INDIAN
IN CITIES AND TOWNS THAN ACT: NO MORE REGISTERED
ON RESERVE FIRST NATIONS
By 2029, a combination of lost economic opportu- By 2035, the First Nations’ voice in legislative circles
nity, food insecurity, ineffective health systems, and is mostly gone, and Government implements the rest
a lack of hope for the land drives First Nations to of its 2023 referendum mandate. Section 35 of the
migrate increasingly to the cities. Relationships with Constitution Act of 1982 is revoked, and there is no
land are undermined along with First Nations’ identity longer any recognized form of collective First Nations
as people. There are few employment or education representation or governance. First Nations lose status,
opportunities for this wave of migration to the cities. and Treaty rights are no longer recognized or affirmed
Homelessness, illness, and poverty increase. Com- by Government, let alone implemented. Meanwhile,
pounded by loss of spiritual identity and competi- non-First Nations companies are taking advantage of
tion over scare resources, lateral violence increases. pipeline expansion, and Western systems that exclude
Apathy among First Nations over the future of their First Nations are allowed to thrive.
self-determination grows, and some First Nations
people convince themselves that their knowledge is Social services for Indigenous people are completely
lesser and completely adopt Western and colonial dissolved. By 2038, practice of First Nations
models of life and thought, becoming colonized by languages, culture, and spirituality are at the
mindsets of individualism and capitalism. lowest levels in 50 years. First Nations children are
apprehended by CFS at increasingly disproportionate
With no funding for language revitalization or the rates, accelerating assimilation as First Nations
preservation of cultural practices nor official recogni- children are placed in non-First Nations homes.
tion, Indigenous language proficiency rates drop, and Social services show no consideration or recognition
First Nations peoples’ sense of identity suffers further. of First Nations cultural identity or the community
First Nations representation in media and the arts connection, and the systems’ architects believe these
declines, misrepresentations increase, and a blended, ideas to be harmful.
homogenous “Canadian” culture dominates. First
Nations culture and symbols are further appropriated With the abolition of the Indian Act and
and influenced by Western interpretations, and by Constitutional Recognition, there are no longer
2030, the meaning and protocols behind First Nations any lands set aside for First Nations people and no
symbols and ceremonies have been largely forgotten. recognition of traditional territories or associated
First Nations youth feel overwhelmed by the burden rights, such as hunting or fishing. These losses further
of preserving the First Nations way of life and have accelerate migration to urban areas.
little support to meet the challenge. Loss of cultural
identity and connection creates increased mental By 2039, traditional medicines,
health distress among First Nations youth. By 2031, ceremonial spaces, and traditional
substance abuse rates, suicide rates, and deaths due foods have essentially disappeared
to addictions all reach record levels. from First Nations lives.
In 2019, Amy Hull, a young woman from Qalipu Mi’kmaq
Lives First Nation in Newfoundland, lost her Indian status and membership
Disrupted by with the Nation after requirements for membership, administered through a
Loss of Status points-based system, were raised. She is among thousands from Qalipu Mi’kmaq
First Nation whose membership has been revoked.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 23Dominion
2040
FIRST NATIONS CANNABIS
INVESTMENTS PAY OFF
By 2040, a minority of First Nations people find
economic and professional success through assimilation;
for example, by growing cannabis or building wealth The History of Residential Schools
through education, employment and home ownership and Today’s Child Welfare System
in the Canadian system. Other First Nations are being
left behind as they struggle with racism, loss of identity, First Nations leaders have
and a lack of support. Some First Nations communities accused the child welfare system
do not agree to extraction and economic development of repeating the history of
on Traditional Territories and set up blockades. Tensions residential schools. While 3%
grow between First Nations who are doing well financially of the population of Canada is
and those who are not, sowing the seeds of deep conflict Indigenous, Indigenous children
over the merits and ethics of assimilation. A “class make up 15% of children in care,
system” based on wealth and influence emerges among with children on reserves over
First Nations. With no capacity to support First Nations eight times more likely that other
ceremonies, teachings, and values to help resolve these children to be taken into care.
conflicts, First Nations’ wellbeing continues to diverge Shawn Atleo, former National
between the “haves” and the “have nots.” There is Chief of the Assembly of First
no sense of collective responsibility for community Nations said in 2018, “There are
wellbeing, and youth who experience mental distress at more First Nation children in care
lost connection are criticized by their more assimilated today than during the height of
peers as needing to “just get over it and adapt”. By 2050, residential schools.”
wellbeing indicators in First Nations communities that
resisted development on Traditional Territories is less than
half of those who did not resist.
2055 2060
SOME FIRST NATIONS MOVE
FIRST NATIONS HAVE LOST
BACK TO LAND, SAYING
TRADITIONAL WAYS OF LIFE
“WE WILL SURVIVE”
By 2055, the First Nations way of life is nearly Some First Nations attempt to go back to the land
extinct. Most First Nations people know nothing in the hopes of finding a better life, but the land
of what it means to be First Nations, and young has degraded and is worse off than when their
people born after 2030 have poorer health and grandparents left it.
wellbeing outcomes than their parents’ generation.
First Nations youth are struggling economically
and socially and have no access to land, culture, or
language to help guide them.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 24Dominion
emergency room care. Continuity of care suffers
and, as disillusionment and chronic disease burden
increase further, the ability for the health care
system to provide high performance care further
erodes. Nonetheless, a few primary care providers
Implications for Mino Pimatisiwin continue to provide care to those most in need, but
they are only able to maintain a low and inequitable
level of health care.
Health
In Dominion, health status and disparities in life
Expenditures
expectancies worsen because health systems on
reserve and urban health systems are ill-equipped On-reserve provision of health care increasingly
to meet First Nations’ needs. Complete federal shifts towards delivering acute care with all
divestment in the direct provision of health care health care expenditures spent on sickness and
results in the Province being primarily responsible hospitalization. Cost of care per First Nations
for delivery of health care services, with a focus on citizen continues to rise as chronic care and
acute rather than preventive care. cultural appropriateness and safety are neglected
and as populations increase. Treatment for many
Culturally unsafe services result in reduced uptake illnesses, including end-stage renal disease by
of primary care, as does a decrease in the provision dialysis, increases dramatically, further increasing
of services available on reserve. The incidence of the cost burden on the provincial government.
chronic illness in adults such as type II diabetes Relocation to major urban centres for increasingly
increases, which results in an increase in secondary extended courses of treatment for cancer, end
complications such as peripheral vascular disease, stage renal disease, and other illnesses further
infection, amputation, chronic kidney disease, and increases the per capita cost burden.
heart disease. The prevalence of these diseases
increases dramatically due to the increase in Self-Determination
disease incidence combined with the medical As the provision of health care services is entirely
establishment’s increasing ability to manage assumed by the provincial government, self-
acute conditions, which would sustain the lives determination over health care provision and
of patients suffering from very advanced disease outcomes is severely compromised. Some
burden without providing the chronic management pushback against the establishment allows
to decrease individuals’ level of complications. for preservation of traditional medicines and
Premature mortality due to injuries and substance healing, allowing for some baseline maintenance
abuse increases as the social determinants of and potentially even some recovery of self-
health and cultural losses worsen. determination over time.
Health Care System Performance Client Satisfaction
Metrics measuring health care system performance Satisfaction with a health care system delivered
incorporating measures of safety, effectiveness, and entirely by the province is very low in this scenario,
access universally decrease due to progressively a function of the insufficient and decreasing chronic
insufficient resources unable to meet the care and preventive medicine services, lack of
increased demand of First Nations citizens on the cultural sensitivity, and fewer resources allocated
provincially run health care system, both on and to traditional healing. Health status and disparities
off reserve. On reserve, access suffers as primary in life expectancies worsen and drive the poor
care appointment slots are completely consumed, opinion of the affected citizens.
resulting in a shunting of primary care visits to
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 25Dreamcatchers
Global forces – including climate change, technology, and
globalization – lead to massive changes in how all cultures are
practiced, how all services are delivered, and how all societal
systems function. Economies and living environments are heavily
disrupted by environmental crises and rapid growth of automation,
artificial intelligence, and internet connectivity. First Nations people
are affected by the same changes, leading to a redrawn picture
of First Nations wellbeing. Cultural mixing in a highly connected
environment leads to First Nations culture being expressed in
completely new ways, while some of the old ways are lost. The
change is rapid. There is tension between those wanting to reinvent
cultural practices and those wanting to preserve the old ways.
Wahbung - Our Tomorrows Imagined 26Dreamcatchers
2029
CLIMATE CHANGE IS
PUSHING CANADA TO THE
BREAKING POINT
By 2029, climate change, unchecked extraction, and
environmental degradation create multiple crises, including
unprecedented levels of species extinction and scores of
climate refugees coming to many countries, including Canada.
Political, social, and economic upheavals follow as water
shortages, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events cause
loss of infrastructure and livelihoods for both First Nations
and non-First Nations people. Canadians lose trust in political
leadership and the capitalist ideology that drives the economy.
This disruption also leads to an increased demand for First
Nations knowledge. There is a growing market of Westerners Just 12 Years to Avoid
disenchanted with the dominant system and willing to pay Climate Catastrophe
First Nations people for their knowledge, and by 2025,
Westerners are paying up to $1000 to participate in Sweat In 2018, the United Nations
Lodge ceremonies. Improper protocols when compensating released a report on the
knowledge keepers also increases. Concerns mount that First climate crisis that warned that
Nations are selling out their spirituality and allowing it to be the world is nearly out of time
colonized, while some First Nations people take advantage of to avoid climate catastrophe.
these opportunities. Guided by the Elders, First Nations user The report warns the world has
their ceremonies and teachings to work through these tensions. only 12 years to avoid warming
Many First Nations people proclaim that they will only pursue beyond 1.5 degrees C and that
opportunities that are true to their values, and they won’t allow failure to act quickly will lead
monetization to corrupt their culture and teachings. to significantly worsened risks
of drought, floods, extreme
In parallel, major advances in technology are occurring. By heat and poverty for hundreds
2030, 90% of First Nations people have access to high-speed of millions of people and force
internet, which further increases selling of First Nations major disruptions to livelihoods
ceremonies and teachings to non-First Nations people. and health.
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