UNESCO Science Report (2015) - Towards 2030 Global overview Luc Soete
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UNESCO Science Report (2015) Towards 2030 Global overview Luc Soete Maastricht University Presentation prepared for the Round Table Discussion on Monitoring STI for SDG, United Nations Headquarters, Conference Room 8, 11 March 2016
Outline
• Global overview and reflections based on the UNESCO Science Report
published end of last year.
• Most comprehensive report on Science and Innovation indicators at global
level with data from 108 countries, thanks to collaboration between
UNESCO Statistical Institute, OECD and Eurostat.
• It is good though that UNESCO is back in the business of indicators. Will be
essential in view of the new Sustainable Development Goals and their
monitoring.
• Fascinating to see how countries are all pursuing S&I growth strategies:
each though from the perspective of their own national science and
innovation system.
2
1. Convergence – Divergence: the data
• The share of low and middle-income economies in global expenditure on R&D rose
from 20.3% to 30.7% over the same period.
• Since 2007, the share of low and middle-income economies among world
researchers has increased by 5 percentage points to 35.6% in 2013; China is
responsible for about half this rise.
• Between 2008 and 2014, the number scientific articles included in the Thomson
Reuters’ Web of Science – Science Citation Index grew by 23. Growth was
strongest among the upper middle-income economies (94%) and low-income ones
(68%).
• The availability of STI data to inform policy-making has improved moderately: 108
countries have recent data on research expenditure (up from 102 in the 2010
edition), thanks in part to new observatories of STI, such as in Africa and some
Arab States. Many countries do not yet survey business R&D, however.
3
Greater interest in Africa in science and technology
There are three main thrusts for many African ‘vision’ planning documents to 2020 or 2030:
• better governance ;
• more inclusive growth ;
• sustainable development.
Both national and subregional ‘vision’ documents acknowledge the importance of science,
technology and innovation for sustainable development.
Many African countries now have STI policies (e.g. 11 out of 15 SADC countries). Several have
increased their financial commitment to R&D substantially since 2009, including:
Egypt: 0.43% 0.68% of GDP
Ethiopia: 0.24% 0.61% of GDP
Kenya: 0.36% 0.79% of GDP
Mali: 0.25% 0.66% of GDP
Senegal: 0.37% 0.54% of GDP
Uganda: 0.36% 0.48% of GDP
From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016 4
R&D positions in the world
7,000
Korea, Rep.
6,000
Japan
Researchers per million population
5,000
Canada France Germany
UK
4,000
USA
EU
3,000 Russian
Fed.
2,000
Turkey China
1,000 South
Iran
Africa Brazil
LCDs
India
0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
GERD as a % of GDP
5
1. (Cont’d) Convergence – Divergence: Researchers
• The number of researchers grew by 21% between 2007 and 2013, to
7.8 million. Few of them work in low-income countries (Figure A – left
side).
• Researchers represent 0.11% of the world population, or, roughly 0.2% of its
labour force.
• Germany is the only major advanced economy that has maintained its world share
of researchers (Figure 1.7).
• The rising world share of middle-income countries is primarily driven by China,
despite a major downward revision of researcher statistics in China in 2009. There
has also been strong progress in the Republic of Korea.
• The number of researchers per million inhabitants (Figure A, right side) in high-
income countries is still 9 times higher than in the upper-middle income countries
and 20 times higher than in lower-middle income countries.
6
Figure A: Researchers and researcher intensity, 2007 and 2013
Researchers: Absolute number (‘000s) and world share (%) Researchers per million inhabitants
8000 4000 3814
1.3%
6.4% 3517
7000 3500
1.2%
6000 6.9% 28.0% 3000
5000 22.5% 2500
4000 2000
3000 1500
64.4%
69.5% 888
2000 1000
621
1000 500
188 193
99 121
0 0
2007 2013 High-income Upper middle- Lower middle- Low income
income income
High-income Upper middle-income
Lower middle-income Low income 2007 2013
Note: Upper middle-income includes China (19.1% of world researchers in 2013)
Based on Table 1.3 in the report 7
Economic diversification in Africa hampered by a skills shortage
Africa needs more scientists, engineers, technicians, agronomists, etc to achieve its development goals
Researchers: 91 (FTE) researchers per million inhabitants in sub-Saharan Africa, 495 in North Africa; this is up from
77 in 2007 (sub-Saharan Africa) and 474 in North Africa but still well below the world average of 1 083
From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016 8
2. A shifting public commitment towards R&D
• A de facto convergence, due to declining government investment in R&D in a
number of advanced economies, and strong growth in a few “emerging” ones.
• Government funding for R&D has been weaker (as a % share of GDP) in most G7 countries
since the 2008 crisis (Figure 1.1)
• Nearly all countries are striving to increase the share of innovation undertaken
by business enterprises, with varying levels of success (Figure 1.2).
• Globally, China and India account for most of the convergence in R&D performed by
businesses (Figure 2.1).
• But significant growth in R&D intensity is found in economies at different stages of
development: GERD-GDP ratio has reached 0.79% in Kenya in 2010, well above the average
of lower middle income economies (0.50%), or, for instance, Latin America (around 0.65% –
0.67%).
• Several middle-income economies are becoming hubs for nanotechnologies – or harbour this
ambition –, including Brazil, China, India, Iran and Malaysia.
• Innovation enabled by the technology embedded in acquired machinery or other means
(independent from in-house R&D) is increasingly important for many developing countries.
9US public R&D expenditures
R&D Budget by Agency (Inflation Adjusted), Source AAAS
100,000
90,000
80,000
DOD
70,000 NASA
DOE
Millions 2014 USD
60,000 HHS
NSF
50,000
USDA
40,000 Interior
DOT
30,000 EPA
DOC
20,000
DHS
10,000 VA
Other
0
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014**
2015**
Year
10Figure 1.1: GERD financed by government as a share of GDP, 2005–2013 (%)
11Figure 1.2: GERD performed by business enterprises as a share of GDP, 2005–2013 (%)
12Figure 2.1:
World shares
of business
R&D, 2001–
2011 (in PPP$)
133. Open science and open education: an emerging global
research labour market?
• Open science and international knowledge mobility.
• Publications are an area where convergence is most evident, with strong
growth rates being observed in middle income economies (Figure B,
upper panel).
• Cross-border co-authorship as indicator for international collaboration is
on the rise everywhere (Figure B, lower panel).
• Convergence of the other half of human capital leaves much to be
desired
• Although women have by and large reached parity in higher education,
their share falls as one moves from education to research and plummets
as one approaches the commanding heights of STI governance (Figures
3.1 & 3.2).
• There appears to be a convergence of minds, in the acceptance that
fostering science, technology and innovation is an issue relevant at all
stages of development.
14Figure B: Strong growth in scientific production and cross-border
cooperation
Growth rate of scientific publications between 2008 and 2014
300.0
250.6
250.0
200.0
150.9
150.0 127.6
109.6 103.2
94.4
100.0 67.5 65.9
46.4 50.0 50.3 44.3
50.0 30.0 31.8
11.8 51.0 14.0 11.1 6.1 -4.1
0.0
-50.0
Publications with international co-authors, 2008 and 2014 (%)
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0 2014
20.0 2008
10.0
0.0
15Not much convergence on gender parity
Figure 3.1: Regional shares of Figure 3.2: The leaky pipeline: share of women in
female researchers, 2013 (%) higher education and research, 2013 (%)
Although women have by and large reached parity
in higher education, their share falls as one moves
from education to research and plummets as one
approaches the commanding heights of STI
governance
16Yet, three out of 10 sub-Saharan researchers is a woman
Several governments are putting policies in place to augment the number of women researchers (e.g. Ethiopia)
Share of women
researchers in Africa,
2013 or closest year (%)
(Europe and the Middle East
are shown for comparison)
From: Presentation of UNESCO Science Report, Harare, 1 March 2016 173. Open science and open education: an emerging global
research labour market? (Cont’d)
• Open science and international mobility.
• Growing competition among scientists to secure best jobs; growing
competition among institutions and governments to retain and attract
talent.
• Internet has facilitated international scientific collaboration and online
university courses (MOOCs).
• The number of international students rose by 46% between 2005 and
2013: from 2.8 million to 4.1 million.
• International mobility is higher at the doctoral level than at lower
tertiary levels in science (29% of all mobile doctoral students were
enrolled in science or engineering degrees, compared to 13% of other
tertiary students).
• Increasing pressures in emerging countries to maintain and update
research infrastructure: growing need to share use of such
infrastructure.
184. “Good” governance is good for science: public vs private
science
• At aggregate level it is possible to detect some link between good governance and
scientific productivity
• In Figure 4.1, the “rule of law” index on horizontal axis (Range:-2.5 (weak) to 2.5
(strong)) is linked to the “Quality of Scientific Institutions” (Range: 1 (weak) to 7
(strong)) and to publications per million population.
• Scientific output has increased significantly across the world
• Countries and group of countries show some remarkable differences in science
specialisation, pointing again to the importance of national science specialisation
(Figures 4.2, 4.3, 4.4).
• Patenting remains dominated by a minority of countries
• Taken together, the European Union, China, Japan, Republic of Korea and USA hold
nine out of ten triadic patents in the world (leave it to contributions at this
conference to elaborate much more on this).
• Countries vary though considerably in the relative emphasis they place on
publishing (diffusion of knowledge) vs patenting (appropriation of knowledge)
Figure 4.5
19Figure 4.1 Good governance and scientific productivity go hand
in hand
7.00
Quality of scientific research institutions index (average of 2012-13)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
Rule of law index (average of 2011-13) 20Figure 4.2 Trends in scientific specialization, 2008–2014: High-
Income Countries
Agricultural sciences
0.600
Social Sciences Astronomy
0.400
0.200
Psychology 0.000 Biological science
-0.200
-0.400
Physics -0.600 Chemistry
-0.800
Other Lifes Sciences Computer Sciences
Medical Sciences Engineering
Mathematics Geosciences
United States of America United Kingdom Germany Japan France Canada
21Figure 4.3 (Cont’d) Major emerging countries
Agricultural sciences
0.600
Social Sciences Astronomy
0.400
0.200
0.000
Psychology Biological science
-0.200
-0.400
-0.600
Physics -0.800 Chemistry
-1.000
Other Lifes Sciences Computer Sciences
Medical Sciences Engineering
Mathematics Geosciences
China Russian Federation Brazil India South Africa Korea, Rep.
22Figure 4.4. (Cont’d) Other selected countries
Agricultural sciences
0.800
Social Sciences 0.600
Astronomy
0.400
0.200
Psychology Biological science
0.000
-0.200
-0.400
-0.600
Physics -0.800 Chemistry
-1.000
Other Lifes Sciences Computer Sciences
Medical Sciences Engineering
Mathematics Geosciences
Turkey Malaysia Mexico Arab States Sub-saharan Africa (-South Africa). Latin America (-Brazil)
234. “Good” governance is good for science: public vs. private
science (Cont’d)
• Science powers commerce – but not only: commerce and government power
modern science together.
• With public budgets under pressure in advanced economies especially since the
2008 financial crisis, there is a temptation to divert public research budgets
towards the commercialization end of the innovation cycle. However, the
enterprise sector itself needs
• But it is the combination of high public investment in R&D and availability of
adequate human resources for S&T that underpins high business investment in
research (Figures 4..6a and 4.6b).
• Countries that combine a government investment and a high rate of availability in
S&T human resources invariably achieve a high level of business investment in R&D
• Yet, a “resource curse” appears to stop the wealthiest countries from making the
most out of science and innovation
24Figure 4.6a Links between public and private research
investment
8000
Finland
7000
Total Researchers (FTE) per million population, average of 2010-11
Denmark
Israel
Singapore
6000
Luxembourg
Korea, Rep. of
Japan Norway Sweden
5000
Portugal Canada
Austria
Slovenia UK Germany
4000 Belgium USA
France
New Zealand
Netherlands
Ireland
Russian Fed. Estonia
3000
Slovakia Czech Republic
Lithuania Spain
Hungary
Latvia
2000
Poland
Malta Croatia Italy
Malaysia Bulgaria
Costa Rica Argentina Ukraine
Serbia
1000 Turkey
Kazakhstan
Romania
Brazil China
Colombia Uruguay
0 Mexico
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 25 3.00
GERD funded from non-business sources as a percentage of GDP, average of 2010-11Figure 4.6b: Mutually reinforcing effect of strong government investment in R&D and
researchers, 2010–2011
The size of the bubbles is proportionate to GERD funded by business as a share of GDP
8000
(%)
Finland
7000
Denmark
Singapore
6000
Luxembourg
Korea, Rep. of
Researchers (FTE) per million inhabitants
Japan Norway Sweden
5000
Canada
Portugal
Germany
Slovenia
4000 UK
Belgium USA Austria
France
New Zealand
Netherlands
Ireland
Russian Fed. Estonia
3000
Slovakia Czech Republic
Lithuania Spain
Hungary
Latvia
2000
Croatia Poland
Malta Italy
Malaysia Bulgaria
Costa Rica Argentina Ukraine
Serbia
1000 Romania Turkey
Kazakhstan
Uruguay China Brazil
Colombia Mexico
0
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
GERD funded from non-business sources as a percentage of GDP (%)
265. Science for today’s vs tomorrow’s needs
• Few countries have increased their focus on basic research substantially
• Despite phenomenal growth in total R&D, China’s spending on basic research
remains low, at 4.7% of total research expenditure in 2013.
• The US government traditionally supports basic research but current budgetary
pressures risk reducing the country’s long-term capacity to generate knowledge.
• And yet some countries are making a big effort to support basic research
• The European Research Council (est. 2007), the first pan-European funding body
for frontier research in basic sciences, has been endowed with € 13.1 billion for
the period 2014–2020, equivalent to 17% of Horizon 2020’s overall budget.
• The Republic of Korea increased the share of its research expenditure going to
basic research from 13% in 2001 to 18% in 2011. Malaysia has followed a similar
path (from 11% in 2006 to 17% in 2011).
27Five Key Messages
1. A South-North “convergence” in science, technology and innovation continues
... but remains very uneven.
2. Declining public commitment to science in high-income countries ... Growing
belief in science in emerging and lower income countries... Innovation
occurring across the full spectrum of income levels.
3. Trend towards open science, open innovation and open education...
Emergence of a global labour market for researchers.
4. Good governance is good for science...
Debates on the role of public vs. private science...
Increasing focus on science for productivity and a growing role for business-
driven science.
5. Towards 2030: science for today’s vs tomorrow’s needs. How to achieve the
new Sustainable Development Goals (Agenda 2030)?
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