TRENDING 2021 FROM WILLIAM GRANT & SONS UK - William Grant & Sons
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Welcome to Trending 2021 – a William Grant & Sons Report 2 In such an extraordinary year, we are pleased to bring you the tenth edition of our drinks industry analysis and key consumer trends which are driving change CONTENTS and will continue to influence in 2021 and beyond. 06 Trending 2021 provides our partners with At William Grant & Sons we build examples and data to help them drive their brands. Brands build a longer term CHAPTER 1 businesses forward post-pandemic. Never emotional connection with consumers before has the world we navigate been so volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. that exist beyond price. Brands and liquid credentials build advocacy that MARKET OVERVIEW endures. We build brands dram-by-dram, In the last 12 months the world has bar-by-bar, spending decades of care 10 witnessed catastrophic natural disasters, creating the world’s best liquids – a fact significant political turbulence, civil reflected by our recent Distiller of the unrests, protests and activism, widespread Year Award at the 2020 International CHAPTER 2 economic and financial uncertainty, Spirits Competition, for the fifth year in personal and community loss, and the a row. Our liquids are nurtured by true TRENDING 2021 colossal global impact of the pandemic, craftsmen, from our Master Distillers to which is everywhere and has personally our coopers with decades of experience. affected almost everyone. Our stories are told by the UK’s leading 38 Brand Ambassadors. We don’t create No doubt accelerated by the pandemic, commodities – we create brands that what’s evident is the rapid pace of bring people together, that create lasting CHAPTER 3 change in consumer trends and their memories and unique experiences. significant behavioural shifts in 2020. CATEGORY FOCUS - GIN The has resulted in a decentralisation, In 2021 and beyond, we continue to be humanisation and democratisation of wholeheartedly committed to working luxury, extending from the product we with our partners to understand the 44 see on shelf to parent company values. premium and luxury drinks market, stabilising and supporting the UK Brands, particularly those luxury players, hospitality industry, and unlocking the CHAPTER 4 are now faced with unique challenges. opportunities available for growth to They must divulge their own renewed meet consumers’ changing needs. CATEGORY FOCUS - WHISKY sense of purpose, place and community which all must align with changing I hope you find our Trending 2021 Report consumer habits, evolving the way many valuable as we navigate the next 12 50 luxury brands act now and into the future. months together. However, to find their place within local CHAPTER 5 communities brands need to be invited to do so. They need to add value to people’s MARKET OVERVIEW lives and experiences in a way that is both natural and personal, taking into account Neil Barker, people’s belief systems, while innovating Managing Director, and enriching the end-to-end experience. UK and Ireland William Grant & Sons UK
About Trending 2021 4 The William Grant & Sons UK Trending 2021 Report is based on Great Britain (GB) data. Certain data covers the UK – in those instances, the copy will CONTRIBUTORS mention the UK specifically. A HUGE THANK YOU TO ALL OF OUR CONTRIBUTORS The consumer trends in this report were developed in partnership with Kantar IAN BAINES AARON LEE Consulting and demonstrate the evolving Senior Category Manager Business Account Manager, consumption habits and lifestyles of UK consumers based on fundamental consumer On Trade Nationals values and attitudinal shifts. SERENA BANSAL The Covid-19 pandemic has had a Insights Executive BRYONY RITCHIE significant impact on the UK hospitality Events & Advocacy Manager industry throughout 2020. In this report, we are including a channel overview across LUCY EMERY both the On Trade and the Off Trade. Senior PR, Events & Advocacy Manager CHARLIE WARWICK Premium spirits brands are identified in Associate Director this report as those that retail from £23+ per 70cl in the GB Off Trade, which closely TOM GREATOREX European Head of Futures Practice, aligns to the IWSR definition. (Nielsen, Category Manager, Off Trade Consulting Division Kantar MAT w/e 02.11.2019). They can show strong brand equity, as well as credentials based on the brand’s uniqueness in its HARRY GREENHALGH BEN WULLEPIT category, quality and ingredients. Category Manager, Off Trade & eCommerce Category Manager, On Trade Consumer data is taken from CGA Brand Track and Kantar Worldpanel to September 2020. IRINA JACKSON KANTAR CONSULTING Category Manager, Off Trade The valued team at our insights and trends Unless otherwise stated, all figures that highlight percentage growth or decline are agency partner based on year-on-year moving annual total TAMARA LAWSON value data. Head of Strategic Planning & Insights W COMMUNICATIONS We have selected to use ‘Whisky’ without The valued team at our communications an ‘e’ in order to be consistent and avoid confusion. We are aware that there are agency partner regional variations, but we have opted to use ‘Whisky’ throughout for simplicity.
Trending 2021 Market Overview 6 MARKET OVERVIEW SPIRITS ALCOHOL GB BEER, WINE & SPIRITS The Spirits sector is worth £9.9bn, DOWN The On Trade now accounts for less than £37.2bn | DOWN -15.3% -16.0%, driven by the closure of the On Trade between late March – July 2020. half (45.5%) of BWS value sales, with the Off Trade now accounting for 54.5% of BWS value sales, with share up +14.1%. £37.2bn (15.3%) 45.5% 54.5% However this hasn’t stopped consumers shifting their alcohol spend to the Off Trade: TOTAL SPIRITS +14.1% 5.3bn, UP +12% PREMIUM SPIRITS On-Trade Off-Trade 41.5m (7.3%) BW value sales BW value sales Total Spirits in the Off Trade is now worth £5.3BN, UP +12.0% Premium Spirits account for 7.3% of value 2019 2020 2019 2020 growth in the Off-Trade, adding £41.5m to the category GB ON TRADE GB OFF TRADE £16.9bn, DOWN -35.4% £20.3bn, UP +14.3% Flavoured categories have seen strong value Managed: £6.8bn, DOWN -34.5% Multiples: £15.2bn, UP +11.6% growth in the Off Trade: IFT: £6.8bn, DOWN -36.5% Convenience: £5.1bn, UP +23.4% Other: £3.4bn, DOWN -35.0% FLAVOURED VODKA +22% GB SPIRITS CATEGORIES FLAVOURED GIN +32% TOP 5 BY VALUE TOP 5 VOLUME FLAVOURED / SPICED RUM +36% 1. Non-flavoured Vodka 1. Non-flavoured Vodka 2. Non-flavoured Gin 2. Blended Scotch Other emerging categories – Tequila 3. Blended Scotch 3. Non-flavoured Gin (+45%), Irish Whiskey (+25%), and Low/ 4. Flavoured Gin **NEW 4. Flavoured Gin **NEW No Alcohol Spirits (+26%) – are also seeing value growth. 5. Non-cream Liqueurs 5. Non-cream Liqueurs Nielsen data to 05.09.20 + CGA data to 08.08.20
Year in Review 8 The impact on the On Trade and Hospitality Industry 16 MARCH JULY AUGUST OCTOBER DECEMBER Prime Minister Boris Johnson Saw the reopening of the On Trade The Eat Out to Help Out Scheme Tightened restrictions introduced England exits lockdown and moves advises the public to stay away from at different dates and with different is launched, offering £10 off per across the UK with Scottish pubs into tier system. Wales imposes pubs and other social venues, and restrictions across the UK regions. person between Monday and and bars in the central belt closed. more stringent restrictions with to work from home where possible. Strict social distancing measures Wednesday. More than 160m England introduces a three tier outlets told to close at 6pm and were put in place such as screens, meals were claimed during the system with Liverpool put into the not serve alcohol. sanitiser stations and reduced scheme, with participation from highest tier followed by Lancashire. WORK capacity. On the opening weekend trade was down 45% vs. same 85,000 outlets (UK Gov). By the end of August, 72% of UK Northern Ireland pubs are restricted to takeaway only. As of 16 December 60% of England’s population – 34m FROM HOME period prior year (CGA RISE) with big cities seeing the lowest footfall outlets had reopened their doors. Seaside communities were the In England, businesses in the people – will live in Tier 3 areas, with strict restrictions on almost (Wireless Social). biggest benefactors of the scheme. ‘Very High’ alert tier in England all socialising. On 21 December Meanwhile, city centres continued saw Total Drinks sales drop 73% the government announced a Tier to experience difficult trading year-on-year from 15 – 17 October. 4 lockdown for Greater London (centreforcities.org). The last week Spirits were down by 83% in and the South East regions, further of August saw the highest footfall ‘Very High’ areas. Welsh On Trade tightening restrictions around the across the UK since lockdown is closed for 17 days from 23 Christmas period. began, fuelled by the Eat Out to October for a ‘firebreak’ lockdown. 45% Help Out scheme. The scheme At the end of October, 78,261 was seen as a great success with outlets were open. Restrictions in Managed sector like-for-likes Scotland during October resulted vs. same period prior year bouncing back to 2019 levels. in 35% of sites being open. Hospitality sales dropped by 48% 6PM in the third quarter of 2020 (UK Hospitality Quarterly Tracker). 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 20 MARCH 15 JULY SEPTEMBER NOVEMBER UK On Trade is instructed to close VAT on hospitality and tourism is As cases start to rise again, social Five level tier system introduced in after Friday 20 March. Outlets are dropped from 20% to 5% on eat-in gatherings above six people are Scotland. Rule of four introduced allowed to serve takeaway food or hot takeaway food and non- banned from 14 September in in Wales after ‘firebreak’, maximum and drinks. alcoholic drinks. Some operators England which has an immediate of four people from different use this to discount alcoholic drinks. impact on consumer confidence. households allowed to mix indoors. At the end of September, outlets England enters a four week By mid-July, 33% of outlets in in England, Scotland and Wales lockdown with On Trade closed the UK had opened their doors, are given a curfew. As well as except for takeaway. however Spirits ROS was down by having to close at 10pm, outlets 43% vs. prior year (CGA Drinks have to provide table service and Consumer confidence remains high Recovery Tracker). Pubs lead customers must wear facemasks with 76% of consumers planning recovery in openings and drink unless sat at a table. to go out when venues reopen and sales, nearly two thirds (64%) of a similar number (74%) say they pubs that closed in March reopen By the end of September, 16.6m are missing their visits to the On again, compared to around two people were in local lockdowns in Trade during lockdown (CGA Pulse in five restaurants (42%) and bars the UK, the equivalent to about one Survey 2020). (41%) (CGA Outlet Index). in four people. This was made up of: 12.4m people in England, 2.3m in Wales and 1.8m in Scotland.
Trends Chapter 12 2020 has been a year of major change and disruption. The horizon scanning pillars below help us to make As consumers, what we do, who we do it with, and sense of these shifts: how we do it has been transformed. This has resulted in the emergence of new trends, as well as an acceleration THE UK MACRO TRENDS SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL of existing ones, creating an unfamiliar High-level (macro) changes tend to have a Our physical and social worlds have From a technological standpoint, the UK business environment and an outlook that lifespan of a decade or more; they are much shrunk dramatically in 2020, with nearly is on the verge of rapid advancements in is both challenging and dynamic for the slower to evolve, and they shape the overall half of us working from home, and one in connectivity thanks to the 5G network drinks industry. William Grant & Sons context for UK consumer trends. However, three of us planning to continue doing so rollout. Our newly remote businesses and partnered with Kantar’s Consulting team shorter periods of intense disruption, such in future. ‘Home’ takes on new meaning as lifestyles mean redoubled investment in to better understand this new environment, as the period we’re living through now, ‘cocooning’ habits solidify for households building the UK’s digital infrastructure along with the consumer trends that shape have the power to accelerate macro change – from the explosion of streaming video on in the longer term. At a household level, it, to help the industry better understand that was slow-moving, or cause it to run demand services to increased investment digital and technology inequality has been the now, and anticipate the next. off-course in the short-term. in the home, cooking, DIY, and decor highlighted, with internet access and data categories, shopping local, as well as becoming the hottest commodities. There is no doubt that Covid-19 has had parents and carers turning into teachers an enormous impact on the forecast for for quite a few months and having more We’ve spent 30% more time on mobile 2021. An intriguing thread however, is In the case of Covid-19, we must bear in time with children. devices this year compared to last, consumer’s adoption and access to luxury. mind two aspects: generating more first party data and That the concept of luxury has remained Prior to 2020 we witnessed the UK’s ageing viewing 70% more online ads as a result unchanged for hundreds of years will come as no surprise, however the comfort of this consistency and complacency has caused 1 Living with Covid-19: this is the short-term pressure and disruption caused by the virus itself, which population becoming less restricted and more mobile. But with the vulnerabilities of age now highlighted, those most at risk of (Forbes). Unsurprisingly, digital commerce (including social and voice commerce) continues to be the fastest growing an enormous shift in brand and consumer government, people, and industry the virus are some of the worst affected by channel in the UK (+79.7% YoY) People activity – a trend that will irrevocably must manage and adapt to. Or at loneliness and depression. All cohorts are have access to information and have used impact the industry for good. least until long-term solutions are impacted, however 69% of adults report opportunities during 2020 to learn new universally available, with heath and care workers, and older age groups, feeling somewhat or very worried about the skills via online learning and the internet. Where high earning city-dwellers decamped being prioritised first. effect the pandemic will have on their life. 38% of shoppers new to digital commerce to country retreats for lockdown, they are retirees, who embrace these convenient took their money with them, creating a number of noteworthy trends that are likely to continue in the medium term. This 2 Life after Covid-19: While many parts of life will eventually return to normal, the longer we live with the Indirectly, this period has highlighted many weaknesses in our systems and has arguably exacerbated certain socio-cultural technologies for connection and order fulfilment in times of adversity. ‘decentralisation of luxury’ is the theme of disruption, we expect ‘legacy’ impacts divides, accelerating the progress agenda Better understanding of omnichannel our Trending 2021 report. to our society, economy, and mindset. for race and gender, for example. touchpoints and journeys in a world of The longer we live with the virus, accelerated remote connection is essential Luxury consumers may not be where they the more extended the ‘scarring’ or UK citizens feel an interesting tension for brands across all categories. once were, nor buying the same products, permanent shifts in behaviour will be. We’ll see these impacts evident for the emerging, at once insular and connected to or seeking the same experiences. They may short term (two to three years) and the people in their home and surrounding be new, more actualised people, following even decades. community, while passionately engaging a year of introspection. Their social circles with broader social, even global, issues at may have shrunk and their priorities shifted. a distance. Brands must carefully select the But the opportunity remains for those level at which they choose to engage in the brands which reintroduce themselves to conversation, adding value to consumers’ audiences – with a human touch. reduced spheres of work and living space.
Trends Chapter Trends Chapter 14 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL & REGULATORY The first two quarters of 2020 saw Gross Industry and people have been suffering Domestic Product falling sharply, making it from the tension between environmental The preexisting trust gap has widened the worst recession on record, and the first protectionism and hygiene in 2020. At further in 2020, with most consumers in the UK since 2009. July to September the height of the pandemic the notable distrusting traditional sources of authority 2020 then saw the fastest three-month drop in pollution was a real positive. and seeking new sources of objective growth on record – 15.5% – which would Plastic has had a renaissance as the most information (such as peer rating and be extraordinary in ‘normal’ times. There hygienic option for personal protective review). Exacerbated by more time spent remains a gap between how the economy equipment (PPE) and packaging, whilst online, echo chambers have strengthened, was doing in 2019, and where it currently popular culture sees the rise and rise of causing political and cultural tensions to stands at the ends of 2020 – it is 9.7% ‘eco-activists’ that push UK households become sharper. Governments and groups smaller than it was before the pandemic, to question consumption decisions.. Asda of lobbyists are questioning the cultural and many businesses still have far less and Waitrose are players at either end of and political power of digital platforms and trade. Many sectors will contend with the value spectrum trialing new models for social media, but regulation is slow to catch reduced demand in the short term, and hygienic in-store refill and return schemes. up with technological advancements. struggle to recover in the longer-term, for The dominant message from both example in the creative industries, which is politicians and businesspeople is that projected to lose £1.5bn a week in 2021. Other regulatory and political moves have this disruption presents an opportunity taken a back seat due to the pandemic. For hospitality, an estimated half a million to ‘reset’ and ‘build back better’, but Longer-term budgetary pressures will force jobs have or/will be at risk by the end investment is required to make that a reevaluation of priorities for those in of 2020, with closer to 1m hospitality sustainable transition. power but sure enough, public health will workers supported by the government An interesting, positive idea emerging from continue to sit top of the political agenda furlough scheme. the crisis in the longer-term is the rise of for some time yet. Brands need to stay We can expect to see decreases in the ‘15 minute city’. Larger urban areas ahead of the curve as governments regulate disposable income for most people across may fragment into tighter boroughs or and incentivise consumers and brands to the country which may reignite a period communities with all amenities accessible establish a ‘healthier’ society. of ‘considered consumption’ – the likes of within a 15 minute walk, with beneficial which we saw in the last recession. What’s outcomes for liveability and public health. different on this occasion is the nature of that consumption: ‘mass’ or ‘mass source: @globalbartending premium’ may suffer as people seek either local options that represent convenience and/or support to the community, or seek the best value for money from discounters and booming international suppliers.
The Consumer Trends My Identity The Consumer Trends My Identity 16 WG&S has been following five key consumer trends, first identified in 2017, representing fundamental human motivations. We revisited these in 2019, early in 2020, and do so again today in the context of pandemic disruption. These human truths played a crucial role in educating people worldwide about the discrimination faced ‘unapologetically me’ approach, while those who showcase social events or travel are remain valid, but their by ethnic minorities. susceptible to shaming and criticism. narratives and expressions These factors have resulted in people Self-expression is a critical topic for have evolved. associating with more traditional definitions consumers with 94% believing it of tribes based around class, race, age and is important to feel comfortable to political persuasion, for example, causing express who you are in your personal #1: MY IDENTITY tribes to become less flexible. This is life. Budweiser, having understood the characterised by the fact that the likelihood importance of expressing individuality, The limits on social interactions and a of dying from Covid among people living decided to host a series of events during universal change of pace has given people in the most deprived areas of the country is London Pride and also launched limited time and space to reflect on their identity. twice as high as the least deprived, putting edition cups with flags from nine individual Spending more time in social media echo the importance of one’s socio-economic LGBTQ+ communities to be handed out chambers whilst being exposed to social identity above that of tribes. during the event. Overall, this period offers inequalities that exist through varying a chance for reflection and expression contraction rates amongst different In hospitality, widespread redundancies, of truer, joyful identities in the midst of groups in the population has put the lay-offs and furlough uptake fomented turbulence, and brands will be expected to socio-economic identity above a sense of heightened community values among speak, act and serve consumers in a way community through habit or hobby, making major corporations and individuals that prioritises authenticity. them less relevant and flexible. At the same alike. At William Grant & Sons, what time, the uncertainties brought on by the started as mass hand sanitiser production SUB-TREND #3: virus have taken a toll on everybody, with through our distilleries evolved into an CURATION & CONTROL more of us showing a more vulnerable enduring initiative called #STANDFAST. and authentic side, as well as expressing While enhancing solidarity within While on the one hand we look to express ourselves through our newfound hobbies internal and stakeholder communities our true physical identity, on the other, WHAT’S NEXT FOR MY IDENTITY? and pastimes. Awareness of how our digital through donations, fundraising, provision we are trying to protect our digital one. identities are created and used has never of essential goods and shared team Conversations around the use of data In a context of rising surveillance and been greater, yet consumers are more willing experiences, #STANDFAST enriched our are ongoing with consumers of varying personal data analytics, anonymity and than previously to share this identity for the ‘tribe’ enabling us to connect with and ages and technical know-how becoming identity protection may be the luxury of greater good. support thousands of those affected by increasingly aware of how our data is being the few who can afford it. For the majority, hardship in the hospitality industry. used. At the same time, we are witnessing we can expect more time to be lived online, SUB-TREND #1: new benefits of sharing that data through and more of our identity influenced by FLEXIBLE TRIBES SUB-TREND #2: time-saving recommendations and national that time, which we first saw the impacts AUTHENTIC IDENTITIES Track & Trace apps. Despite 80% of of in mainstream media through the 2014 As the impacts of the virus spread and the consumers agreeing with the statement Cambridge Analytica scandal. As we look UK went into its first lockdown in March, Covid has been a ‘leveller’ when it comes to “I am concerned about data protection forward, this idea extends to our physical existing inequalities have been highlighted self-expression online. Everyone spending and privacy on the internet”, up 6% spaces, which will be smarter and more and deepened, having the biggest impact on more time in smaller spaces lends itself from 2016, this sub-trend is somewhat in connected, capturing data on our daily the most vulnerable in society. The killing to greater humanity, vulnerability and tension. This is especially true given that as lives. The ownership, management, and of George Floyd in May triggered global ‘realness’ in the face of shared challenges. of 26 November 2020, the NHS Track and shareability of this data will be a defining Black Lives Matter protests which have Younger consumers in particular take an Trace app had more than 20m downloads. ethical issue in the coming years.
The Consumer Trends My Health The Consumer Trends My Health 18 Beers (0.5% abv) are looking to evolve the SUB-TREND #4: #2: MY HEALTH functional proposition of beers and double HYGIENE OBSESSION down on the gut health aspect by combining Covid-19 has had the most significant it with kombucha to provide a health This consumer trend has manifested as become unremarkable to us in the longer impact on ‘My Health’ as a consumer benefit while unwinding. Similarly, the low/ a direct result of 2020 disruption. As term. There was a sharp uptake on brand trend and motivation. The direct biological no category has boomed, with Seedlip, we’ve learned to ‘live with Covid, the provision of hand sanitiser from March impact of the disease is one of the many Aecorn, and Atopia distilled low and non- UK has established a hygiene ‘subsector’ 2020, and it is something that has almost ways that our health has been impacted. alcoholic spirits creating flavourful, non- that underpins all industry and consumer become second nature, with the likes of The mental strain caused by uncertainty, compromising choices for latent, infrequent activity, as well as physical infrastructure LVMH, BrewDog and William Grant & whether regarding the health status of a or ‘ABVarious’ drinkers that rival their (temperature screens, sanitiser stations, Sons all producing millions of litres to family member or one’s financial future, is alcoholic counterparts. shields) that are likely to remain and alleviate the shortage. impacting society at large. The economic downturn as a result of the virus may SUB-TREND #2: reduce spending on premium health HEALTH AS SYSTEMS goods, although hygiene will be seen as an essential, expected of brands, retailers and As well as focusing on explicit ways in venues alike – in both its simplest form which we can look after our health, our (face coverings and hand sanitiser) to how understanding of health systems and the we verify our ‘health status’ as we re-emerge impact of external factors on our health from isolation. Health inequalities have also has also evolved. This has been emphasised been emphasised by the virus, highlighting by covid. One ONS study showed that the role external factors play in our health. the likelihood of a male working in Not everyone will be able to take advantage an ‘elementary occupation’ dying of of this period to focus on better nutrition, Covid was four times greater than one more exercise and mindfulness. Opportunity working in a ‘professional occupation’. exists for brands to democratise wellbeing Living and working environments can in a financially pressured society. drastically shape wellbeing. The Vitality life insurance programme leverages this new SUB-TREND #1: understanding of the connectivity of health, WELLBEING FIRST offering benefits such as Apple watches and cinema tickets for keeping fit to promote Putting our wellbeing first has become the healthier lifestyles, and ultimately reducing main concern for consumers across the insurance premiums. globe as Covid placed greater emphasis on hygiene to prevent virus spread. Many SUB-TREND #3: more indirect implications exist, such as MOOD MANAGEMENT exercising while working from home or WHAT’S NEXT FOR in an agile working (out of office but still A flurry of new tech gadgets has improved MY HEALTH? online) model, coping with unemployment our ability to measure the various rhythmic or redundancies, and finding new ways to flows of the body such as circadian While we have witnessed socialise and connect. (sleeping) rhythms and metabolism the rise of the wellness throughout the day, allowing us to economy for years, its The economic consequences of the optimise our health in accordance to these centre of gravity will pandemic will mean fewer people are able rhythms. In the past 10 years, we have pivot towards hygiene, to afford health goods due to their premium witnessed a 49% increase in market size immunity, and resilience pricing. Despite this, 23% of Brits said they for sleep aids. Baze, an online vitamin in a future where most are focusing on healthier eating since the subscription service, provides vitamins people’s minds and wallets first lockdown. A number of kombucha based on a quarterly blood test that is will be heavily pressured. beer brands such as Nirvana Twisted Bucha used to analyse your nutrients levels.
The Consumer Trends My Expectations The Consumer Trends My Expectations 20 SUB-TREND #2: SUB-TREND #4: #3: MY EXPECTATIONS STREAMLINING CHOICES PREMIUM COMES HOME Never before has so much online A simplified consumer journey was already The hospitality industry has quickly food delivery sites. In the alcohol category, behavioural data been collected on so evolving until lockdown and furlough gave found innovative ways to reach consumers Pernod Ricard launched its own home many. Every generation and type of consumers more time for discovery and and bring the experience of out-of- cocktail maker which features 7cl cartridges household is building new found reliance exploration, resulting in more time being home occasions into the home. With of spirits from the brand’s portfolio allowing on digital ecosystems at home – whether spent on devices. It further allowed brands the ‘shrinking’ of their physical worlds, consumers to enjoy a cocktail experience at for work, shopping, or leisure and access to more data to provide the most consumers look to turn the home into home. Similarly, The Balvenie hosted its first connections. The result: Greater knowledge relevant recommendations, resulting in the a more exciting, multi-functional space virtual product launch, engaging consumers about individuals across channels, more overall direction of this trend being unclear. with a rise in spending across categories directly with its Malt Master, industry opportunities to personalise, and more Having said that, consumers are increasingly from premium DIY and homeware, to legend David C. Stewart MBE, through an sophisticated algorithms to pre-empt and valuing their time more, with a 5% increase local delicatessens. Takeaway orders saw a authentic storytelling experience celebrating streamline. Expectations are for speed and in people agreeing with the statement “I am 245% year-on-year increase, pushing even its 19-Year-Old Stories Edge of Burnhead responsiveness from brands and services. willing to spend money to save time” since the most prestigious restaurants to list on Wood product release. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean a 2017. Pinterest has responded to this by complete digital takeover. With more time only providing reliable information from on our hands and a slower pace of living, leading public health organisations and time is invested into discovery, planning, removing any recommendations, comments, and experimentation. Home is our new or ads when users search for health terms hybrid playground in the short-term. like ‘vaccine safety’. SUB-TREND #1: SUB-TREND #3: INTUITIVE CONNECTIVITY HYBRID SOCIAL SPACES Businesses have been exploring ways to Hybrid social spaces have suffered as a simplify the consumer journey by providing result of the government guidance to anticipatory services and algorithm-enabled ‘work from home if possible’. With the offers. Intuitive connectivity has grown in mass adoption of flexible working and importance as a result of a greater share of many businesses realising there is less need our purchases being made online, especially for permanent office space, hybrid social for a large number of older and less spaces are due to see a surge in demand digitally literate consumers. As much as post-pandemic when workers look for 75% of global consumers agree that functional places to work from. Prior to “it is important to have products and lockdown, London saw a new coworking services that can anticipate my needs”, space open every five days. Now, apps like a significant jump of 8% on 2018. Tesco TALLY work for employers who want to responded to this need by launching a beta save on office space, enabling them to gift The Balvenie Tun 1509 Batch 7 Virtual Launch, October 2020 Google Assistant which allows consumers ‘tokens’ to employees to work at cafes, to do their shopping via their voice restaurants and bars during the day, with assistant, skipping the need to browse on lunch, drinks or unlimited coffee as a perk. WHAT’S NEXT FOR MY EXPECTATIONS? a laptop. Waitrose allowed shoppers to As we emerge from the 2020 model, we’ll create their favourite cocktails at home undoubtedly see flexibility in workplace Expectations for convenience and reliance and delivery. Cross-category and even cross- with an online cocktail hub, partnering conditions, the re-entry of co-working and on delivery will be a legacy effect of Covid sector partnerships will create efficiencies with De Kuyper to streamline the shopping uptake of personal memberships allowing disruption. However, with impending and fulfil multiple consumer needs across experience for novice at-home bartenders. individuals to curate and shift their economic pressures, businesses and brands fewer touchpoints. working environment. will have to be smarter with discovery, sales
The Consumer Trends My Experiences 22 platform for brands to capture consumer’s #4: MY EXPERIENCES attention and stimulate desire for their products through sound – from Ikea’s Time away from friends and family has ASMR ‘soundscapes’ to Lay’s crisps ‘sonic made us reassess the importance of those challenges’ on TikTok. relationships, emphasising the need to spend more quality time with loved ones, whether With Magnum’s Pleasure store closing physically or virtually. With physical aspects due to Covid, the brand decided to bring of experiences being put on hold, brands the Pleasure store to the people. Magnum have had to explore new ways of engaging partnered with Deliveroo to give several with consumers. Current technological lucky customers a decoration kit with capabilities have allowed brands to which they could recreate classic British creatively do so, though the limitations we summertime flavours such as Strawberries are currently facing only highlight how and Cream and Ice Cream Sundae. strong our desire for novel experiences and ‘micro moments’ has become. SUB-TREND #3: IMMERSIVE EXPERIENCES SUB-TREND #1: PURPOSEFUL PAIRING & SHARING Brands have had to explore innovative ways of providing immersive experiences Purposeful pairing and sharing has been to reach consumers and engage with them negatively impacted because our ability to while they are spending large parts of share has been limited to a much smaller their day at home. The aspect of novel space – the home and a much smaller ways to engage with consumers has made group, our support bubbles. Despite these immersive experiences, in the virtual sense, limitations, we have developed a better more important. However the inability to understanding of who we want to share travel to a venue and be surrounded by with and what, leading to pent-up desire the experience in-person put this trend in that is likely to show itself post-pandemic. tension. Even with immersive experiences This is supported by the fact that ‘making being largely limited to the virtual world, loved ones a greater priority’ ranked the demand from consumers still exists, first when consumers were asked which with 21% of consumers saying they paid to statement was most relevant to them(Kantar). watch or participate in online experiences during lockdown, whether a virtual cocktail SUB-TREND #2: masterclass from premium mixer brand SHIFT THE SENSES Fever-Tree, to a live-streamed performance through Old Vic theatre. The increased time consumers are spending at home as a result of covid has put WHAT’S NEXT FOR MY EXPERIENCES? pressure on brands to find alternative ways to capture the attention of consumers by Lower-touch or no touch experiences will targeting senses which aren’t as common continue to dominate as a symptom of as sight, such as sound, smell, and touch. covid’s ‘psychological scarring’. Innovation This trend is represented by the steady rise in this space from players like Ultraleap in the weekly number of podcast listeners, and Teslasuit will begin to influence which increased by 24% since 2018. Spotify home entertainment and telecoms sectors, reported more than a third of overall creating new potential for interactivity and listeners are consuming podcasts as a way to convincing mixed realities that create a boost their mood. This naturally provided a sense of physical presence.
The Consumer Trends My Experiences diverting waste issues by giving ingredient #5: MY VALUES by-products a second life, using banana peels to flavour its rum, for example. The turbulence caused by covid has put brands and consumers in unprecedented SUB-TREND #2: situations, somewhat clouding our moral COGNITIVE DIVERSITY compasses. Yet at the same time, we are feeling more empathetic because we are all Our scrutiny of businesses was then turned sharing a common experience of navigating to the scrutiny of our governments and through a global pandemic, giving us even ourselves. The global Black Lives the impetus to contribute to our local Matter protests and the disproportionate communities. This situation has presented impact of covid on ethnic minorities brands with new opportunities to prove that exposed the world to other perspectives they stand for what they claim to believe. In like never before. At the same time, the UK terms of cognitive diversity, the Diversity & government imposed rules and measures on Inclusion agenda has been brought even more boroughs and regions with tiers, restricting strongly to light by the fact that Black, Asian their ability to govern themselves and and Minority Ethnic groups and women are reducing the diversity of voices. Consumers most impacted as carers – 70% of caregiving largely understand the importance of having hours are provided by women (Cambridge cognitive diversity with 81% believing it is Journal of Economics, Vol 39:3, 2015). important “to be exposed to people with different backgrounds”. Understanding this SUB-TREND #1: trend, dating app Bumble launched a Covid OPENLY DEMOCRATIC campaign to celebrate and showcase images of Black love. Though racially led, this also Consumers are expecting brands to act heightened consumer cognisance for gender ethically and be transparent. This has disparity in the workplace, at home and in become especially important amid a global brand action. Many chose to take a stand, pandemic which has devastated the lives of aligning their company values to those of ms, putting brands under greater scrutiny their consumers. since any unethical behaviour during such times carries a greater penalty than SUB-TREND #3: normal. With 55% of consumers believing CONSUMPTION TO CONTRIBUTION that “it’s important to me that the brands I buy from are committed to making our While consumers learned about the WHAT’S NEXT FOR society better”, ethical behavior has never experiences of others, the common been more important. Fashion retailer experience of dealing with the pandemic MY VALUES? the Arcadia Group paid the price of had evoked a strong community spirit. damaging its brand image as the public People were not only consuming local We’re entering the ‘era of public’, became aware of them cancelling £100m to keep local businesses afloat, but where private companies will worth of orders from Bangladesh as the also contributing to supporting local need to prove their involvement UK went into lockdown. Oatly, a popular communities and businesses with a fifth in the civic agenda to build or Swedish dairy-free alternative brand, faced of UK adults volunteering their time for retain brand value. ‘Consumers’, protests and criticism after a stake was community activities since the start of particularly the younger sold to Blackstone group, known to have lockdown. Morrisons introduced Kids Meal generation with pressured spending US political ties, while Ben & Jerry’s was Packs to self-isolating school kids in place power, will want to be treated as applauded for its firm stance on racism of free school meals, while the government ‘contributors’ to increasingly local issues by a global audience. Within the made up to 400,000 weekly food parcels and tangible initiatives – while spirits industry, brands like Discarded are available for shielding individuals. remaining globally connected and internationally minded. [1] As warned by SAGE in Summer 2020, for example [4] Creative industries foundation, July 2020 [2] ONS & The Telegraph, July 2020 [5] Metro.co.uk, The Guardian, October 2020 [3] health.org.uk, Q3 2020
The Consumer Trends My Experiences The transformation of luxury 26 In 2019 the luxury market grew by 4% to an estimated €1.3 trillion globally, with positive performance across most segments (Bain & Company, 2020). As part of this growth, fine wines and clothing and footwear to entertainment and spirits both saw 5% market increases, with travel are notable purchase areas for millennial spirits continuing the significant upward ‘HENRY’ Y consumers, with the majority of trend seen in recent years, and gin, in purchases being made online. particular, outperforming. And then, as the global pandemic started to The luxury hospitality segment was take its hold in early 2020, global travel was experiencing lower growth than previously grounded and many of the foundational aspects seen (up only 2%, compared with 5% of the luxury industry as we knew it were last year), with a consumption shift back challenged to change. to luxury products, rather than luxury experiences, as these have been seen to be growing less than previously. Also at “ This crisis may be this time, the online, off-price and airport channels continued to outperform, growing transforming the THE TRANSFORMATION OF respectively at 22%, 11% and 11% in luxury industry for current exchange rates. Throughout 2019, good, but it could also LUXURY the online channel continued to gain share, and ended the year accounting for 12% be a transformation of the global market. As part of this, we for the good.” have seen a significant amount of luxury transactions influenced by the online Bain & Company channel, and up to 25% of purchases were digitally enabled. In line with the growing market trend, we have seen a rise in the number of luxury consumers globally – there are around 15m High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs), with more than half of these people living in the United States. And, more recently, a new wave of luxury consumers have emerged who, for them, luxury is a mindset – they are experience seekers, influenced by social media, and constantly searching for meaning and purpose. And whilst the HENRYs (high earning, not rich yet) have been around for almost two decades, with the term first coined in 2003, within the last few years we have seen 100% of market growth coming from Gen Y and Gen Z (Bain & Company, 2018). Indeed,
The transformation of luxury The transformation of luxury 28 Resilient under pressure. The luxury industry has already shown significant resilience in crises, and has previous proven experience of thriving in eras of major cultural and societal change. So while the S&P Global Luxury Index – of our people to produce ethanol and hand comprising the 80 largest publicly-traded sanitiser across five of our sites in Scotland, companies engaged in the production Ireland and New York State. Overall, we or distribution of luxury goods, or the will produce at least 20 million 500ml provision of luxury services, including bottles and, so far, have donated hand Daimler, Nike, LVMH-Moet, and BMW – sanitiser to more than 1,000 organisations reached a three-year low in March 2020, including hospitals, churches, nursing down by 15% on the year prior, it will close homes, personal protective equipment the year at a 10-year high. suppliers and many more. With over 200 years of experience, and despite 2020 challenging the definition of THE CHANGING what luxury is, staggering records were set ‘TRUE LUXURY’ in the eye of the pandemic storm. Reuters reported that Tesla’s car sales in China Luxury has always been an emotionally- were 450% up during March, as the overall driven industry. While we talk about car market rapidly declined, and fashion HNWIs and HENRYs, there is not one industry trade journal WWD reported that type of luxury consumer, because luxury Hermès took a colossal $2.7m of sales at its means many things to many different second largest flagship store in the Chinese people. At the heart of it, luxury enables city of Guangzhou on the day the store people to celebrate and to treat themselves reopened after the pandemic. and others. But there are also consistent, core values which resonate with people: an Some luxury brands have been quick to element or rarity and limited access; quality adapt, evolved their positions and embraced and attention to detail; and the ability values that resonate with customers. to grow in value and create long-lasting The brands that have demonstrated real memories over time. And actually, in 2020, the beautiful packaging. connection with their customers and the true luxury suddenly became about And, for those needing continued to provide perceived ‘value’ doing the simple things we liked to do some additional thinking without interruption will undoubtedly pre-pandemic and how much we can time before they purchase, emerge stronger. Gucci stood with its global connect and build our own experiences. they’re able to head up community to fight the Covid-19 pandemic to ‘Glenfiddich Grand by making two separate donations of €1m Ready for its reopening in December 2020, Cru Celebration Terrace’ each to crowdfunding campaigns. Glenfiddich Grand Cru created an end- on the fifth floor to try to-end experience with Harvey Nichols an amazing Grand Cru At William Grant & Sons, we continue to in London’s Knightsbridge, built around cocktail for themselves. The be proud to play our part in the worldwide shopping, gifting, tasting and treating. A Fig Fashioned, created by fight against coronavirus. As the situation custom-designed personalisation station Anna Sebastian from The unfolded, it became clear to us that we had has been set up for people looking for the Langham’s Artesian Bar, the ability and capacity to make a difference perfect gift this Christmas and New Year, recently featured in Vogue, so we diverted our technology and the skills with an individual gold plaque added to comes highly recommended. source: @leonardo_filippini
The transformation of luxury The transformation of luxury 30 Pivot, please. We all had to pivot: brands, companies and individuals. In the past six months alone, most of the luxury houses have pivoted to accelerate their e-commerce presence, bringing a range of new opportunities for luxury, for those brands and organisations brave enough to accept the challenge. NAVIGATING A NEW ERA In a move to excite and unite fashion and tattoo fans worldwide, William Grant & “ Our customers share with us Sons’ spiced Rum brand Sailor Jerry and that when they’re shopping We are moving into a new era of luxury reuse the bottle after the product has been London-based jewellery brand Hatton for luxury that they’d like it which has undeniably been shaped by Labs revealed a brand new, limited consumed means that not only can people edition six piece capsule collection, to be an immersive, inspiring the pandemic. But it is also a response to enjoy creating more memories by upcycling, honouring the legacy of Norman ‘Sailor experience. Increasingly changing consumer needs – from price it is waste efficient. The beautiful bottles are Jerry’ Collins, in December. points to mindset, and a cult status of made in the mountainous Mexican town they’re looking to understand ‘having’ to experiential and ‘being’. of Santa Maria Canchesda and 80% of the Available exclusively online, Sailor Jerry’s not only the product itself, employees are female artisans who grew vivid colour, bold iconography and sheer Luxury is a time and a place for me up in poverty with little formal schooling. artistic ambition to create a new type of but the story of the brand, Every day the employees are provided with Luxury is indulgence for me tattooing has been emulated by the Hatton the craftsmanship, the make.” Luxury is meaningful to me two meals, transport, childcare and school Garden-based jewellery house in the set of tuition, supporting Clase Azul’s ultimate unisex pendants and rings, featuring five purpose of celebrating the magic of Mexican Christine Beauchamp For centuries, the ‘traditional’ value of of Sailor Jerry flash icons cast in precious culture and artistry, while transforming lives President luxury has been in perceived exclusivity, metals and set with opulent coloured through positive engagement. Amazon Fashion both in price and location. And now purpose gemstones. Each flash icon in the jewellery collection has been meticulously selected is emerging as a hygiene factor because by Hatton Labs Encapsulating classic consumers, especially the rise of a younger Americana culture, while also nodding to luxury market, are expecting more from “Our measure of success is brands. They expect them to step up and do “happiness. Our measure the underground, modern day subcultures that are prevalent today. The range is more, being clear about who they are and priced from £185 to £7,500. what they stand for, moving away from just of success of sharing. product to product with action. In these unprecedented times people align with and Our measure of success is IIn September, after months of speculation, will be loyal to brands which display values creating. And because of Amazon launched its Luxury Stores and outlooks resonating with their own. that we’re going to make it, experience, partnering with Oscar de la Renta to create a ‘shop in a shop’ on its Premium tequila brand Clase Azul, of Clase and I know that once we mobile app for eligible Prime customers Azul Spirits, is just over 20 years old and have that done, there’s going (of which there are 150m). With Amazon the fastest growing luxury tequila in the customers ordering over one bn fashion US. Each bottle of spirit is packaged in a to be just one luxury tequila items on mobile in the last 12 months, the handcrafted ceramic decanter which is a and the rest.” concept from the world’s largest online key point of difference for the brand. The retailer was built on customer feedback, hand painted bottle provides uniqueness and quality attributes, and the ability to Arturo Lomeli, and focuses on being able to engage with CEO and founder, customers wherever they are comfortable Clase Azul shopping, creating an elevated and inspiring experience.
The transformation of luxury 32 LUXURY CONSUMER SUB-TRENDS SELF-ACTUALISATION ARE ACCELERATING INFLUENCING LONG-TERM SHIFTS IN PURCHASING With the pandemic forcing radical shifts in individuals’ DECISIONS routines and work patterns, decreasing social spheres, and increasing adoption of ‘local, community’ values, the new expectation is for individualised luxury omnichannel The pandemic has been a shared experience experiences at people’s fingertips – wherever they may be. with a democratising effect. Regardless The rapid manifestation of a number of luxury consumer of pre-existing social structures, everyone sub-trends has occurred throughout 2020, which all have has been subject to restricted movement positive implications for brands to enjoy an extended reach and many have had time to get in touch into their markets. with ‘who they are’. Accelerated by social media, purchase habits are no longer necessarily a reflection of what one can afford, but reflect who they perceive FEWER, MORE MEANINGFUL themselves to be. Personalisation rose in CONNECTIONS popularity and demand years ago, but true product customisation grows more pertinent every year. With the non-essential workforce staying at home and metropolitan consumers retreating to countryside homes What’s evident is the changing consumer or rental properties, social circles and spheres of influence and significant behavioural shifts in have shrunk to a community level. Social interactions have 2020 has resulted in a decentralisation, greatly diminished and the limited time spent with friends humanisation and democratisation of and neighbours within these spheres has become incredibly luxury, extending from the products we valuable. This has accelerated the home premium category, see to purpose and values. Today’s luxury as consumers aim to replicate luxury experiences in their consumers want it all: inclusivity, cultural own homes. relevance, transparency, a point of view, online presence. For those brands prepared to continuously reinvent and adapt, the INDIVIDUALISED, IMMERSIVE AND future of luxury is an exciting path to travel. INNOVATIVE DIGITAL EXPERIENCES Luxury consumers are prioritising their health and that of others, so are unlikely to rush back to cities until ‘normal life’ is within grasp. Inaccessibility to consumers through established routes paved the way for shareable, virtual experiences for consumers to enjoy within their communities. Brands providing infrastructure, products and entertainment to reach consumers in their homes have added considerable value to peoples’ lives, and deliver brand presence at a relevant local, community level.
The transformation of luxury The transformation of luxury 34 ECOMMERCE POWER 7.1% At the end of 2019 and prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, How the channel will perform in 2021 and post-pandemic is the online channel represented 7.1% of all FMCG sales and still unknown but the online channel is now a major priority was growing at an impressive (at the time) +9% year-on- for retailers, suppliers and shoppers alike. For shoppers, year, over four times the rate of the overall grocery category. online has now become an essential shopping channel for Online also attracted 25% of the population to shop through FMCG SALES even more households. Retailers have increased their focus SELL and investment to drive the channel forward as a core part of the channel, again impressive considering where the channel had come from over previous years. their offering. Suppliers view e-commerce as a critical channel DISTRIBUTE to sell, market and distribute brands. MARKET When the pandemic hit the online channel moved from being just part of the shoppers channel ‘repertoire’ to an essential, HYPER CONNECTIVITY 7.9M core channel. While shoppers were ‘staying local’ and only visiting large supermarkets if they absolutely had to, most moved their grocery shopping online. Further to the rise in online spending, more than eight a $325bn industry by 2025. Many people out of 10 mobile phone users surveyed by Ericsson found were becoming accustomed to e-everything. ONLINE Over the first wave of the lockdown, 7.9m households shopped online over the month of March, +66% compared that internet-connected technologies have helped them cope during the pandemic, enabling them to support their Covid-19 has expedited the journey to where we were already heading. SHOPPERS to last year. The significant growth in penetration saw the channel grow by +103% and helped the online channel children’s education, stay in touch with friends and family and even improve their mental health and wellbeing. We The disruption of social isolation has broken achieve an all-time high market share of FMCG of 12.7%. have seen market entrants facilitating connections across down previous habits and psychological platforms such as Houseparty, and B2B conferencing perceptions towards digital. Many people platform Zoom reporting 200 million users per day in April have been brought into a world of e-living – up from 10 million in December 2019. they had previously not considered, or Retailers were quick to adapt to this changing shopping actively resisted. Home entertainment behaviour, doubling online slots, and hiring additional But many of these ‘new’ digitised behaviours existed prior adoption accelerated, highlighted by employees in order to meet the demand. This was not, MARCH: 590,000 to Covid-19. Brands such as Peloton had spearheaded the growth of in-home cycling and gym classes while online or the launch of Disney+ which achieved subscription numbers in five months that however, without its challenges. Retailers had capacity issues which saw the likes of Ocado having to limit new shoppers APRIL: 1,000,000 app-based learning had already been predicted to grow to took Netflix seven years. to its website as systems were struggling to keep up. MAY: 1,200,000 However, most, Ocado included, quickly adapted to meet the surge in online demand. In March, Tesco only offered MONTHS VS YEARS 590,000 slots but this rose to 1 million in April and then to 1.2 million in May. In just over two months the UK’s largest According to McKinsey, the astonishing growth in e-commerce during the few months of lock-down retailer doubled its number of online delivery slots. Aldi, has reached levels that were expected to take 10 years pre-COVID-19. known for having no online store, pivoted to offer an online service to sell food parcels for the vulnerable. Adapting to a significant pace of change and changing shopping behaviour undoubtedly helped them to achieve the triple-digit growth +20% +21.6% +10.3BN E-COMMERCE TRANSACTIONS E-COMMERCE CONVERSION EXPECTED IN RETIAL seen over the period. RATES VS PRE COVID-19 IN JULY VS PRE COVID-19 E-COMMERCE FOR WESTERN BENCHMARKS BENCHMARKS EUROPE VS PRE-COVID 2020 FORECASTS Up to mid-July, the retail categories winning out in the e-commerce boom were in those Despite slowing down slightly over the second wave, areas where lockdown drove a dramatic shift in how we conduct our daily lives. 87% the online channel still grew at +87% over the month of October, a mere 12 times faster than the grocery market average. Online is still the only Off Trade channel to be growing in attracting more shoppers, +83.4% +66% +42% INCREASE purchasing more frequently, and spending more per SPORTS EQUIPMENT DRIVEN SUPERMARKETS DRIVEN BY HOME FURNISHING AND DIY BY THE CLOSURE OF GYMS THE CLOSURE OF BRICK AND DRIVEN BY THE INCREASED visit, highlighting ‘healthy’ growth. AND FITNESS STUDIOS MORTAR STORES TIME SPENT IN OUR HOMES
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