TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND - The road to net zero - Addleshaw Goddard LLP

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TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND - The road to net zero - Addleshaw Goddard LLP
TRANSPORT
IN SCOTLAND

The road to net zero
TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND - The road to net zero - Addleshaw Goddard LLP
CONTENTS                                                                                               ABOUT
ABOUT ADDLESHAW GODDARD                                         1
                                                                                                       ADDLESHAW GODDARD
WORKING ACROSS THE TRANSPORT SECTOR                             1
FOREWORD                                                       2                                       IMAGINATIVE SOLUTIONS TO PIVOTAL BUSINESS PROBLEMS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                              4
TECHNOLOGY                                                     6                                       Good business depends on good advice. Which, ultimately, comes down to four words. Yes. No. Stop. Go. Many
                                                                                                       of the world’s most recognised and respected businesses – including 43 FTSE100 clients in the last two years
INVESTMENT                                                 10                                          – come to Addleshaw Goddard to deliver just that kind of simple answer. They rely on our lawyers around the
                                                                                                       world to find imaginative solutions to their pivotal business problems, and to get things done.
POLICY FRAMEWORK                                               12
SOCIAL CHANGE                                              14
CONCLUSION
CURRENT EMISSIONS
                                                           16
                                                           18                                          WORKING ACROSS THE
THE AMBITION
EMMISIONS GRAPHS
                                                           19
                                                           20
                                                                                                       TRANSPORT SECTOR
                                                                                                       The Addleshaw Goddard Transport practice is widely      Our clients include many of the primary industry
                                                                                                       regarded as among the leading practices in the UK       stakeholders, across both the public and private
                                                                                                       and we are proud of the breadth of expertise.           sector, and our work covers major projects across the
                                                                                                                                                               transport sector.
                                                                                                       We have a large, expanding team of sector specialist
                                                                                                       lawyers working regularly on a wide range of matters,
                                                                                                       and have indepth and current knowledge of the
                                                                                                       regulatory, contractual, operational and commercial
                                                                                                       aspects of the industry.

                                                                                                       AREAS OF EXPERTISE

                                                                                                       Rail                   Shipping

                                                                                                       Light rail         Transport Logistics

  THANK YOU TO OUR CONTRIBUTORS:
  AGS Airports                   Glasgow Chamber of Commerce        Scottish Enterprise
                                                                                                       Airports                  Bus
  CMAL                           Glasgow City Council               South East of Scotland Transport
                                                                    Partnership
  Committee for Climate Change   Hitachi Rail
                                                                    Stagecoach
  Edinburgh Airport              HIAL
                                                                                                       Aviation                  Tram
                                                                    Strathclyde Partnership for
  Edinburgh City Council         Loganair
                                                                    Transport
  Eversholt Rail                 Midlothian Council
                                                                    Transport Scotland
  Forth Ports                    Network Rail
                                                                                                       Ports                 Electric Vehicles
  Fraser of Allander             Professor David Begg

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1
TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND - The road to net zero - Addleshaw Goddard LLP
FOREWORD

                                  The Committee on Climate Change progress report to the                       On the flipside, there is also huge
                                  Scottish Government, published in December 2019, called                      optimism among those in senior
                                                                                                               positions in Scotland’s transport
                                  setting a net zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2045
                                                                                                               industry and a will to recognise the
                                  ‘a step change in ambition for Scotland’. It also noted the                  enormous economic opportunity
                                  need for ‘urgent action’ if the country is to meet this target,              that net zero offers. Several people
                                  and ahead of it, the ‘extremely challenging’ 75 per cent                     interviewed raised opportunities
                                  reduction target by 2030, a deadline that is now under 10                    to reskill existing workforces,
                                  years away.                                                                  to promote international
                                                                                                               investment into carbon reduction
                                  The scale of the challenge is         With the Scottish Government           technology and infrastructure in
                                  underlined by the fact that surface   calling climate change a ‘national     Scotland, to redeploy Scotland’s
                                  transport emissions have risen for    emergency’ there seems to have         already significant experience in
                                  the fourth consecutive year and       been a very tangible shift in          engineering, onshore and offshore
                                                                                                               fuel extraction and renewables into
PAUL HIRST                        have increased by 9 per cent since    both corporate and public sector
                                  2012. When including aviation and     mindsets recently when it comes to     the development of new clean fuels,
Head of Transport                 shipping, transport is the highest    setting all strategy for the future.   mass hydrogen production and the
paul.hirst@addleshawgoddard.com   emitting sector in Scotland, at 37    During the evidence gathering          development of battery storage
                                  per cent of total carbon emissions.   for this report, one person went       technology.
                                                                        so far as to say: ‘Since the climate   In this report, we considered just
                                  Across the rail, road, shipping and
                                                                        emergency was declared, all policy     four of the many facets of change
                                  aviation sectors, all contributors to
                                                                        is seen through the prism of how       and focus that will be needed if
                                  this report agreed there is an urgent
                                                                        we reduce carbon emissions. That is    we are to meet Scotland’s net zero
                                  need for a co-ordinated policy
                                                                        very new.’                             targets: technology, investment,
                                  framework that considers not only
                                  the decarbonisation of each sector    Whilst the political and social will   public policy and social change. We
                                  individually, but also reviews how    is now largely there to drive the      spoke to a wide range of experts
                                  transport provision interacts today   change needed to hit net zero          with various perspectives on the
                                  and how these interrelationships      targets, it was noted by several       transport sector and public sector
                                  should be improved to provide a       contributors to this report, that      supporting the road to net zero. We
                                  more efficient integrated transport   the Scottish elections are set for     are thankful for their considered
                                  system.                               2021 and another referendum on         and insightful input.
                                                                        independence remains firmly in         COP26, the United Nations climate
                                  Much of the challenge must be
                                                                        the SNP’s plans. The will to make      change negotiation conference,
                                  about agreeing what modal shifts
                                                                        socially unpopular legislative         is being held in Glasgow on the
                                  are desirable as well as what
                                                                        changes may therefore be               River Clyde in November this year.
                                  blend of technology and access to
                                                                        dampened in the immediate future       This is a very real and imminent
                                  transport is suited to local social
                                                                        at the very point at which tough       opportunity to showcase what
                                  and economic needs.
                                                                        choices need to be made to deliver     Scottish policy makers have done,
                                                                        the radical changes required to        and are committed to doing, to
                                                                        deliver the net zero promises.         support real action to decarbonise
                                                                                                               the transport sector.

2                                                                                                                                                     3
TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND - The road to net zero - Addleshaw Goddard LLP
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    Set out below is a summary of the key insights and proposals arising from our
    discussions with a panel of industry experts.
    z   Interconnectivity between different modes of         z   Net zero offers a huge economic development
        transport is critical                                    opportunity
    z   A politically independent and international          z   Scotland should develop a skills centre to
        body is needed with sufficient powers to push            upskill its existing workforce to deliver the
        through radical change – akin to the World               change needed
        Bank
                                                             z   Environmental visas akin to Tier One Investor
    z   There is still some hesitation among private             visas could be introduced to encourage
        companies to commit sufficient investment                international investment into businesses and
        into the development of new technologies,                technology that helps to deliver net zero
        fuel sources etc at the scale required and fast
                                                             z   Much more data is needed to support business
        enough
                                                                 cases to invest: Government must work with
    z   Hindering this investment is a lack of clarity           academia and business to model forward how
        on specific infrastructure plans including               different strategic approaches and technology
        questions such as the extent to which the                will impact society, the economy and the
        railways can be electrified, the extent to which         environment
        electric vehicle charging points will be installed
                                                             z   Britain’s flight paths are outdated and unfit for
        and how the grid is to be upgraded sufficiently
                                                                 delivering more carbon efficient travel. This
        to support the transition of air, shipping,
                                                                 must be reviewed and flight paths changed
        rail and road vehicles to battery power for
                                                                 urgently using bold legislation to overcome
        example
                                                                 local objections
    z   There has to be a balance of incentives to
                                                             z   Councils and regional partnerships will need
        change behaviour and penalties for failing
                                                                 to work together much more closely than
        to comply: these include the introduction
                                                                 has previously been the case to co-ordinate
        of low emissions zones, workplace parking
                                                                 connections across the country
        charges, potentially banning private car
        use from congested areas, taxing road use            z   All sectors would welcome better cross-sector
        more aggressively and introducing better                 communication and data sharing
        interconnectivity of ticketing for all forms of
        public transport to make journeys easier and
        potentially cheaper
    z   A review is needed of the taxation regimes
        across all modes of transport; currently and
        historically tax has encouraged certain modes
        – principally private car use. This must change
        to create a bias towards public transport and
        active modes of transport including walking
        and cycling

4                                                                                                                    5
TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND - The road to net zero - Addleshaw Goddard LLP
TECHNOLOGY

“
                       Electric vehicles, hydrogen trains and buses, battery-powered                   Two projects are currently running      The challenge of infrastructure
                       planes and ferries are all technologies that exist today. Nearly                looking at the feasibility of using     charging was a point raised
There is a real need                                                                                   hydrogen-powered vessels in the         across sectors. Ferry operators
                       everyone interviewed was optimistic about the rollout of
to promote and                                                                                         Orkney Isles and Western Isles.         in the Highlands and Islands were
                       clean transport across Scotland and the UK, with various                                                                particularly interested in how
possibly mandate                                                                                       Ports reported a good level of
                       pilot projects already underway to build test cases.                                                                    the grid could be extended to
data sharing                                                                                           decarbonising technology has
across all logistics                                                                                                                           support more remote ports and
                       Edinburgh and Glasgow airports        Last year saw British Airways and         already been deployed with
platforms.                                                                                                                                     harbours to allow for recharging.
                       have made leaps forward to reduce     Shell plan Europe’s first commercial      battery-powered and hybrid
                                                                                                                                               The rail sector also raised concerns
                       surface emissions by replacing        waste to jet fuel plant, a further step   technology used to power ship to
                                                                                                                                               about the continuity of supply
                       combustion engine vehicles            towards transitioning to cleaner          shore gantry cranes and straddle
                                                                                                                                               generated from renewable sources
                       with EVs on site. Surface access      fuel, yet contributors highlighted        carriers as well as surface vehicles
                                                                                                                                               if electrification of the railways
                       connections remain an issue for       concern that without significant          being switched to electric.
                                                                                                                                               nationwide is desired, referencing
                       aviation – how people travel to       public funding and incentives, the        Port operators also indicated
                                                                                                                                               the outages experienced in 2019
                       and from the airport. In Edinburgh    cost of this fuel is prohibitively        that pressure is being put on
                                                                                                                                               and consequent disruption to
                       there is the tram link; in Glasgow    high and production scale too low.        plant equipment providers to
                                                                                                                                               services as a major economic and
                       there is no alternative to access by  One person spoken to suggested            decarbonise as well. One operator
                                                                                                                                               social consideration that has to be
                       road. Plans to extend the rail link   incentives should be offered to           cited Brodick on Arran as an
                                                                                                                                               accounted for.
                       were marked as fundamental to the     reskill many of those working in the      example of a port using biomass
                       airport’s ability to reduce carbon    petrochemical industry to develop         heating and solar panels, but said      The cost of electric technology has
                       emissions.                            bio-fuels in Scotland, with this          most port infrastructure needs          also been prohibitive for private
                                                             type of technology fundamental to         major improvement. The long-            companies looking at switching
                       All contributors raised offsetting                                              term lifespan of vessels was also       fleets of buses, ferries or trains
                                                             decarbonising aviation long term.
                       as a possible problem area. Easyjet                                             cited as a challenge to upgrading       over. Currently too little practical
                                                             He also confirmed that without
                       recently announced it will offset                                               sufficiently quickly.                   financial support has been given to
                                                             scale investment in this, offsetting
                       carbon emissions from the fuel used                                                                                     public funding that would subsidise
                                                             would dominate the drive to net           One key discussion around the
                       on all of its flights, making it the                                                                                    this transition and rebalance the
                                                             zero in this sector.                      bus sector pointed to the massive
                       first major airline to operate net-                                                                                     economics of that decision to align
                       zero carbon emission flights across   In shipping, contributors reported        investment already made by bus
                                                                                                                                               with environmental priorities.
                       its fleet.                            a shift away from heavy fuel oil          companies in Scotland to upgrade
                                                             in new build vessels to liquid            buses to Euro 6 ‘clean diesel’, which   This also applies to individuals:
                       The technology to support purely                                                reduces emissions by 90 per cent        according to the Committee for
                                                             natural gas. Battery technology for
                       battery-powered aircraft on any                                                 compared to Euro 3 standards. One       Climate Change, the typical cost
                                                             passenger ferries is also possible,
                       but the shortest haul flights does                                              major transport operator, which has     for a home charge point and
                                                             though range remains an issue. One
                       not yet exist. Commercial short-                                                the biggest fleet of electric buses     installation is approximately £1,000
                                                             contributor also indicated that the
                       haul flights between Orkney                                                     in the UK, has already invested         but this is expected to fall by
                                                             lack of financial incentives to ports
                       Islands are planned by 2022 with                                                £1billion in switching to cleaner       2030. The Scottish Government is
                                                             to invest in the ‘massive’ charging
                       an eight-seater battery-powered                                                 technology over the past 10 years,      already supporting the roll-out of
                                                             infrastructure needed to support
                       plane currently in production                                                   indicated a desire to move its fleet    private charging points through the
                                                             the recharging of electric vessels,
                       and testing planned for 2021.                                                   to electric eventually, but raised      Energy Saving Trust, which provides
                                                             including cruise ships with up to
                       Charging of this plane using entirely                                           the massive challenge of ensuring       grants of up to £300 through its
                                                             4,000 passenger capacity, conflicts
                       renewable sources is also intended,                                             there is a sufficient charging          EV Homecharge scheme on top
                                                             with environmental targets.
                       though due to battery and weight                                                infrastructure in place to support      of funding from the UK Office for
                                                             That said, Scotland does have a
                       constraints, currently this type of                                             this transition.                        Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV), and
                                                             number of hybrid vessels already in
                       aircraft can fly only very short hops                                                                                   almost 90 per cent of EV owners in
                                                             operation, reliant on both battery
                       of 12 to 18 minutes.                                                                                                    Scotland also have home charging
                                                             technology and engines that can
                                                             burn both liquid natural gas and                                                  points.
6                                                                                                                                                                                     7
                                                             diesel.
TECHNOLOGY

    In October 2019, Scotland had            It is also a more practical fuel for
    over 3,600 public charging points,       HGVs and heavy vehicles, at least
    around 50 of which were ultra-           until battery technology has been        ELECTRIFICATION OF RAIL
    rapid chargers. By 2030, 4240            developed sufficiently to produce
    fast chargers (22 kW), 2800 rapid        smaller, lighter batteries with higher   The Scottish Government has a rolling             All rail sector interviewees agreed that this
    chargers (43 kW), 900 ultra-rapid        capacity.                                programme of electrification which forms part     programme of electrification should continue
    chargers at 150 kW and 55 ultra-                                                  of a wider £5billion investment package for       at pace as the fastest and most cost effective
                                             If this is to occur however, there       Scotland’s railway infrastructure. Of the 2,776   means to reduce carbon emissions from rail in
    rapid chargers at 350 kW will be
                                             needs to be significant investment       km of rail track in Scotland, approximately one   the immediate future.
    required for public charging across
                                             in the clean production of               quarter is electrified. The Scottish Government
    Scotland.
                                             hydrogen fuel and its distribution       has pledged to fully decarbonise all passenger
    One contributor raised the potential     and availability around the UK is        rail by 2035.
    for unintended consequences by           imperative and presents another
    encouraging homes to have private        major area of infrastructure
    charge points, however, arguing          investment and development.              COMPLETED ELECTRIFICATION PROJECTS
    that public transport transition had
    to be the priority. Public charge
    points at work and the supermarket,      DATA SHARING
    for example, were also given
    credence as a better strategy than       More than one of our experts
    encouraging home-based charging.         raised the importance of sharing
    This could also alleviate spikes in      data between all transport sectors,
    demand on the grid.                      arguing there is a real need to
                                             promote and possibly mandate data        Airdrie to Bathgate Railway        Cumbernauld electrification         Edinburgh to Glasgow
                                             sharing across all logistics platforms                                              project                         via Falkirk line
    HYDROGEN                                 including HGV, vans, rail, shipping
                                             and aviation in order to understand
    The other major technology in            how distribution can be streamlined
    development is hydrogen, with            and decarbonised most cost-
    some buses in Aberdeen already           effectively.
    running on this new fuel. Germany
                                             Rail network operators and service
    runs several hydrogen trains and
                                             operators also raised the need to
    more than one contributor to this
                                             share data nationally much more
    report expressed real excitement                                                    £12 million Paisley Canal        Stirling, Alloa, Dunblane lines       Shotts line between
                                             effectively and indicated that
    about investing in hydrogen trains                                                   electrification project                                              Holytown Junction and
                                             legislation is required to enforce a
    for Scotland, something that is                                                                                                                            Midcalder Junction
                                             wholesale move to cleaner rolling
    likely in the imminent future.
                                             stock, as well as understanding how
    The advantage of hydrogen is that        the rail network interconnects with
    it has the potential to replace petrol   roads and where upgrades should
    and diesel in more remote areas          be focused to deliver the maximum
    of Scotland where electrification        efficiencies possible.
    is prohibitively expensive or
    unfeasible. This is true of both rail
    and ferries and has the potential to
    open up the Highlands and Islands.

8                                                                                                                                                                                        9
INVESTMENT

“
                       The overwhelming reaction from all contributors to this                      Modes of transport and their
                       report was that billions of pounds would be needed to                        cost is another area that several
                                                                                                    contributors raised as key. Driving     EXISTING FUNDING
More tangible          deliver net zero by the targets set by both the Scottish and
understanding of                                                                                    is the cheapest mode of transport
                       the UK Governments. The public sector argued that private                    for long distances. How freight         z   Scotland already has launched calls to bid for a £3billion green
how to balance the
                       companies would need to ‘put their hands in their pockets’                   distribution is taxed is not equal          investment portfolio
country’s economic
with its environment   while the private sector argued that much more public                        in shipping, road, rail and air. The    z   Scotland’s ‘Growth Accelerator’ programme has been
needs is urgently      funding was needed.                                                          whole structure of how fiscal policy        extended to a ‘Green Growth Accelerator’ that allows local
required.                                                                                           affects private sector choices in           authorities to invest in low-carbon infrastructure
                       All agree a combination of both       This, they argued, must be done        modes of transport needs major
                                                                                                    review with a joined up approach
                                                                                                                                            z   A £500million fund to improve bus services across Scotland
                       private and public money would        immediately with Government
                                                                                                    across the entire transport sector in       has been confirmed
                       be fundamental to delivering net      urged to commission this work
                       zero, but almost all raised genuine   from independent sources. A more       order to encourage the behavioural      z   £17million available for zero interest loans to support the
                       concern as to whether there is        tangible understanding of how to       change needed to deliver net zero.          purchase of ultra-low emission vehicles
                       enough available to support the       balance the country’s economic         The Government’s priority must be
                                                                                                    to redress this balance using all of
                                                                                                                                            z   £7.5million of private and public funding for expanding public
                       scale of investment required.         with its environment needs is
                                                                                                    the tools at its disposal.                  charging infrastructure and electricity networks
                                                             urgently required.
                       Several people raised the lack of
                                                                                                                                            z   Two significant decarbonisation funds for capital expenditure
                       practical academic and financial      In terms of practical investment,
                                                                                                                                                were announced in the past year: the £315million Industrial
                       modelling and analysis that had       areas of priority included upgrading
                                                                                                                                                Energy Transformation Fund (IEFT) and the £170million
                       been undertaken to assess the         the grid as number one, to support
                                                                                                                                                Industrial Decarbonisation programme delivered through the
                       economic impact of delivering         the massive rise in demand for
                                                                                                                                                Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund (ISCF)
                       net zero. The cost of regulation,     electricity that would result in a
                       supervision, practical delivery       wholesale move to electric trains,
                       costs, the infrastructure required,   planes, ferries, buses, cars, vans,
                       reskilling the workforce among        heavy goods vehicles and bikes.
                       many other considerations must be
                                                             Another call that many repeated
                       looked at.
                                                             was public support to make the
                       One area of economic concern          commercial case for investing
                       raised, for example, was the impact   in cleaner technology more
                       of discouraging international         aligned with the environmental
                       flights in Scotland on the Scottish   case. Electric buses and trains
                       economy. This comes down not          are currently far more expensive
                       just to passenger traffic but         than diesel, hybrid aircraft and
                       also Scottish airports’ hubbing       clean sustainable fuel production
                       potential and international freight   for planes are disproportionately
                       distribution. Assessing the           expensive compared to diesel.
                       economic impact of discouraging       Older cars and petrol and diesel are
                       this type of transport must also      cheaper than a brand new electric
                       consider what other countries         car.
                       are doing so as to account for
                       Scotland’s competitiveness in
                       the UK, European and global
                       economies.

10                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11
POLICY
                       FRAMEWORK

“
                       Scottish Government has set itself a series of highly
                       ambitious targets, from ending the sale of petrol and diesel
Since the climate      cars and vans in the next 12 years to decarbonising all
emergency was          passenger rail services by 2035 and flights within Scotland
declared, all policy
                       between two Scottish airports by 2040.
is seen through the
prism of how           Contributors to this report raised    One discussion explored ‘mobility
we reduce carbon       the potential challenge for the       as a service’ as a successful model
emissions. That is     Scottish Government of achieving      to encourage households to give
very new.              this given its lack of control over   up private vehicle ownership
                       fiscal levers including vehicle and   altogether. Pilots are already
                       fuel taxation, excise duty and        being run - however this should
                       company car tax. However, it is       be extended nationwide to allow
                       likely to use congestion charging,    for practical usage by individuals
                       workplace parking levies, public      needing to travel longer distances     The Committee on Climate Change         While the UK government has             Bus lane priority was also raised as
                       transport and EV priority on the      by car.                                warned in its December report that      committed to addressing this,           a key driver of behaviour change.
                       roads to influence behaviour.                                                there is limited power at Scottish      hard decisions must be taken,           Transponders that prioritise buses,
                                                             How regional partnerships are          Government level in aviation.           even where new flight paths over        enabling faster more efficient
                       Penalties imposed on companies
                                                             awarded status to make decisions       However, there are significant          residential areas create obstruction.   journeys are already in use in Perth
                       that fail to upgrade fleets should
                                                             about how and where to invest          challenges that must be met to          A balance must be struck between        city centre and must be rolled out
                       also be considered.
                                                             in local infrastructure is also a      reduce carbon emissions from air        environmental priorities and social     on a national basis, argued one
                       It is also within the Scottish        hotchpotch currently. This needs       travel. According to one expert in      ones.                                   contributor. Broadening out bus
                       Government’s gift to offer            urgent review to award local public    this area, Britain’s flight paths are                                           lanes was also encouraged, though
                       scrappage schemes and other           sector bodies the ability to make                                              We found there was a distinct call
                                                                                                    outdated and unfit for delivering                                               one person labelled the policy
                       forms of financial support to         decisions and take action to deliver                                           for support from the government
                                                                                                    more carbon efficient travel.                                                   debate around this ‘all a bit ad
                       those wishing to switch to electric   on their own net zero targets.                                                 to upscale the development and
                                                                                                    Existing flight paths were designed                                             hoc’ and warned that not enough
                       vehicles. One such scheme is                                                                                         production of sustainable aviation
                                                                                                    in the 1960s for aircraft designed                                              thought had gone into how bus
                       already in place with interest-free                                                                                  fuels, airspace modernisation and
                                                                                                    60 years ago using ground-based                                                 lanes would affect local business
                       loans of up to £35,000 currently                                                                                     infrastructure support for surface
                                                                                                    beacons to navigate. This results                                               deliveries for example.
                       offered by Transport Scotland and                                                                                    access.
                                                                                                    in congestion, aircraft having
                       the Energy Savings Trust, on top of                                                                                                                          Several public sector contributors
                                                                                                    to remain in the air longer than
                       grants from OLEV.                                                                                                                                            indicated that road prioritisation
                                                                                                    needed and has not evolved to
                                                                                                                                                                                    would change significantly
                       Transport Scotland also currently                                            reflect satellite navigation and the
                                                                                                                                                                                    with cyclists given top priority,
                       provides funding for housing                                                 efficiencies that offers.
                                                                                                                                                                                    pavements widened to promote
                       associations to provide electric                                                                                                                             walking, more investment in trams
                       vehicles as part of a car club,                                                                                                                              and metro systems and bus lane
                       widening access to the benefits                                                                                                                              extensions.
                       of driving electric vehicles.

12                                                                                                                                                                                                                       13
SOCIAL CHANGE

“                                                                                                                                                                                            “
                       The Scottish Household Survey          We were pointed to figures that             The financial impact of forcing         How easy using public transport is
                       2018 confirmed that people in          showed passenger numbers rising             change using low emissions zones        for individuals is going to be critical.
The public must        Scotland are more concerned by         25 per cent between 2010 and 2016,          on households is still poorly           Schemes to introduce single fare
                                                                                                                                                                                             We are getting
be engaged in the      climate change than ever before        while aviation emissions rose just 5        understood, though it seems             passes and charging structures
                                                                                                                                                                                             much more efficient,
challenge and policy   but research from online investment    per cent over the same period. ‘We          logical that poorer households will     that allow passengers to move
                                                                                                                                                                                             aircraft are using
should be designed     platform Charles Stanley Direct        are getting much more efficient,            be disproportionately hit where         seamlessly from one operator
                                                                                                                                                                                             much cleaner,
to put people at the   recently suggested that just 5 per     aircraft are using much cleaner,            Government does not devise              to another without the need for
                                                                                                                                                                                             greener technology
heart of it.           cent of UK adults have changed         greener technology and fuels and            grant schemes to support the            separate tickets are needed. They
                                                                                                                                                                                             and fuels and
                       their day-to-day behaviour as a        surface emissions have come down            technological upgrades that are         have been trialled in some parts
                                                                                                                                                                                             surface emissions
                       result of the global climate strike    significantly. We haven’t been              required to millions of homes and       of the country, but there is a need
                                                                                                                                                                                             have come down
                       campaign led by Greta Thunberg.        great at communicating this as an           cars across the country. In Scotland,   to roll this out on a co-ordinated
                                                                                                                                                                                             significantly. We
                                                              industry though.’                           and its major cities particularly,      national scale, which will require
                       However, the move towards flight-                                                                                                                                     haven’t been great
                                                                                                          these schemes and incentives            centralised administration by an
                       shaming, spearheaded by Greta          The Committee on Climate                                                                                                       at communicating
                                                                                                          must be considered, agreed and          independent party. Transport
                       Thunberg has already impacted          Change progress report to the                                                                                                  this as an industry
                                                                                                          delivered very quickly if they are      Scotland is cognisant of this
                       on usage in her home country.          Scottish Government, published                                                                                                 though.
                                                                                                          to filter into a manageable rate of     and seems minded to support
                       The number of passengers flying        in December 2019, advised that
                                                                                                          changeover.                             integrated ticketing.
                       through Swedish airports dropped       ‘the public must be engaged in
                       4 per cent in 2019, according          the challenge and policy should be          There is broad agreement amongst        Active travel – walking and
                       to Swedish state-owned airport         designed to put people at the heart         the sector that dependence on the       cycling – need to become more
                       operator Swedavia, led by a decline    of it’. The shift in lifestyles that will   road network in Scotland should be      commonplace as do electric bikes.
                       in domestic traffic.                   be needed if we are to hit net zero         reduced, with priority on the roads     But despite policies such as Smarter
                                                              are enormous. How we travel is just         given to public modes of transport      Choices Smarter Places and the
                       Britain, an island nation, has no
                                                              as important a consideration in this        including both buses and trams.         Cycling Action Plan, there has been
                       land link and just one rail link to
                                                              transition as what we travel in.                                                    no significant behavioural shift
                       the continent and therefore has                                                    Bill Reeve, of Transport Scotland,
                                                                                                                                                  away from cars towards public
                       fewer options when it comes to         Currently, the public consensus sees        told us that a priority for them is
                                                                                                                                                  transport, walking and cycling in
                       international travel.                  a shift from privately owned cars           now ‘how to persuade passengers
                                                                                                                                                  Scotland in the last decade.
                                                              with combustion engines towards             out of their cars and freight
                       The point was raised during one
                                                              privately owned electric vehicles.          customers out of HGVs and onto
                       of the discussions on this sector:
                                                              But who pays for this remains a             railways’ indicating that policy
                       ‘People are questioning the
                                                              tricky subject. At the moment               already supports this shift. He also
                       merits of flying ethically but we
                                                              individuals are largely footing the         suggested that the management
                       in the aviation industry feel we
                                                              bill but it was felt that there needs       of Network Rail in Scotland needs
                       have been on top of reducing our
                                                              to be a debate about whether or             to be devolved to the Scottish
                       environmental impact for a while.
                                                              not a form of scrappage scheme              Government to facilitate the
                       £15billion has been invested by
                                                              should be introduced and funded             upgrades needed.
                       airlines and the aerospace industry
                                                              publicly in order to encourage
                       a year and aviation now accounts
                                                              individuals to switch to cleaner cars.
                       for just 2 per cent of global carbon
                       emissions.’

14                                                                                                                                                                                                              15
CONCLUSION

“
                     Contributors to the report were on       Experts in the aviation sector felt
                     balance, hugely optimistic about         broadly that they had already
Concerted,           committing to decarbonising              invested heavily in carbon reduction
coordinated          Scotland’s transport sector.             technologies and strategies but
and well-funded                                               had failed to communicate their
                     Delivering the required reduction
action is required                                            successes to the public. Flight paths
                     in carbon emissions in the desired
now.                                                          to improve fuel consumption and
                     timeframe elicited a more mixed
                                                              efficiency, was singled out as a
                     response. Dependent on sector,
                                                              priority for governments.
                     there was a varying degree
                     of pessimism that the level of           The question of offsetting emissions
                     investment in infrastructure would       was raised frequently, pointing out
                     be sufficient to meet targets.           that while the majority of industry’s
                                                              focus must be on carbon emission
                     ‘The money just isn’t there,’ said one
                                                              reduction, true zero emissions are
                     executive.
                                                              further off than 2045 in Scotland.
                     Broadly speaking, those operating        There needs to be some agreement
                     bus companies and ferry operators        on acceptable levels of offsetting
                     were most positive about their           / phased reduction in offsetting
                     ability to meet targets.                 allowances.
                     Rail operators had more mixed            Time was the biggest concern
                     views – some rolling stock providers     for all parties, with the consensus
                     displayed real excitement to invest      being that ambitious deadlines
                     privately into developing battery        were needed to create impetus for
                     operated trains, hybrid trains           action but scepticism expressed on
                     powered by a mix of battery and          how realistic delivery would be in
                     hydrogen and pure hydrogen-              practice. Concerted, coordinated
                     powered trains. Government               and well-funded action is required
                     contracts, rolling stock lifespans       now.
                     and renewal timeframes require
                     review however if operators are
                     to be incentivised or forced to
                     replace entire fleets quickly enough.
                     There will be a commercial cost
                     to be borne: whether government
                     provides scrappage schemes or
                     simply legislates will have an effect
                     on the cost of rail travel ultimately
                     passed to passengers.

16                                                                                                    17
CURRENT EMISSIONS                                                                                     THE AMBITION

Surface transport emissions    Emissions from surface              Cars, vans and heavy goods         The Climate Change               According to the Committee        Scottish Government has
increased by 3 per cent in     transport in Scotland were          vehicles (HGVs) account for        (Emissions Reduction             on Climate Change, emissions      also pledged to decarbonise
2017, the fourth consecutive   12 per cent higher in 2017          65 per cent of total               Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019     will need to fall by an average   passenger rail services by
annual increase, to            than in 1990, and were just 1       transport emissions in Scotland    (“2019 Act”) introduced new      of 1.8 MtCO2e each year           2035, and all flights between
10.5 MtCO2e                    per cent lower than the peak                                           emissions reduction targets      between now and 2050,             Scottish airports by 2040
                               in 2007                                                                for 2020, 2030 and 2040          equivalent to 3.6 per cent of
                                                                                                      of 56 per cent, 75 per cent      emissions in 2017
                                                                                                      and 90 per cent respectively
                                                                                                      against 1990 levels.

The total distance travelled   Car traffic has increased by        Vehicle ownership in the
by road vehicles in Scotland   5 per cent since 2007,              Highlands and Islands
has increased steadily since   broadly in line with the increase   Transport Partnership region
2011 at an average rate of     seen in car travel for the UK       is 18 per cent higher, and
1.7 per cent per year          as a whole                          average distances travelled        Scotland will consult on zero-
                                                                   by road are estimated to be        or ultra-low-emission city
                                                                   around 20 per cent higher          centres by 2030, and aims to
                                                                   than the Scottish average          end the need for new petrol
                                                                                                      or diesel cars in the public
                                                                                                      sector fleet by 2025

The distance travelled by      The distance travelled by HGVs      Aviation emissions grew
vans has increased by over     fell from 2007 to a low in 2012,    6 per cent in 2017 to 2.1 MtCO2e
30 per cent in the past        though it has since risen at an     and are now 56 per cent
ten years                      average of around 1 per cent        higher than 1990 levels            The cities of Glasgow and
                               per year for the past five years    largely due to an increase         Edinburgh have both set
                                                                   in emissions from                  themselves even more
                                                                   international flights              ambitious targets of reaching
                                                                                                      net zero carbon emissions by
                                                                                                      2030.

Emissions from domestic        Shipping emissions fell by          Domestic shipping was the
flights increased by 2 per     5 per cent in 2017 to 2.3           major source of shipping
cent to 0.6 MtCO2e, and        MtCO2e, following three             emissions in Scotland,
were 27 per cent below         successive annual increases         responsible for more than
1990 levels                    from 2013 to 2016, and are now      five times the greenhouse
                               44 per cent below 1990 levels       gas emissions than from
                                                                   international shipping

18                                                                                                                                                                                                       19
CHANGE IN EMISSIONS

         20%

         0%

     -20%

     -40%

     -60%

     -80%                                                                                                                                                            Source: The Committee on Climate
                                                                                                                                                                     Change progress report to the Scottish
   -100%                                                                                                                                                             Government, published in December 2019
                           Power

                                           Waste

                                                    Agriculture &
                                                         LULUCF

                                                                           Buildings

                                                                                          F-gases

                                                                                                       Industry

                                                                                                                         Shipping

                                                                                                                                      Surface
                                                                                                                                    transport

                                                                                                                                                       Aviation

EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND (1990-2017)

          12

                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: The Committee on Climate
         10
                                                                                                                                                                                         Change progress report to the
                                                                                                                                                                                         Scottish Government, published in
             8
                                                                                                                                                                                         December 2019
MtCO2e

             6
                                                                                                                                                                                         Notes: No emissions data
                                                                                                                                                                       Surface
             4                                                                                                                                                                           are available for devolved
                                                                                                                                                                       transport
                                                                                                                                                                                         administrations for 1991-1994 or
             2                                                                                                                                                         Shipping          1996-1997. Includes Scotland’s share
                                                                                                                                                                                         of emissions from international
             0                                                                                                                                                         Aviation          aviation and shipping
                 1990

                                                                                                                             2010
                                    1994

                                             1996

                                                     1998

                                                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                                                             2016
                         1992

                                                                                                                                    2012
                                                                    2000

                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                    2006

                                                                                                                  2008
                                                                                   2002

EMISSIONS FROM SURFACE TRANSPORT IN SCOTLAND (1990-2017)

         7

         6

         5                                                                                                                                                              Cars
                                                                                                                                                                        Heavy goods vehicles
MtCO2e

         4

         3                                                                                                                                                              Light goods vehicles

         2
                                                                                                                                                                        Busses and coaches

         1
                                                                                                                                                                        Rail
                                                                                                                                                                        Motorcycles
         0
                                                                                                                                                                        Other               Source: NAEI (2019)
             1990

                                                                                                                             2010
                                   1994

                                            1996

                                                    1998

                                                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                                                              2016
                        1992

                                                                                                                                     2012
                                                                2000

                                                                                          2004

                                                                                                    2006

                                                                                                                  2008
                                                                                  2002

20                                                                                                                                                                                                                              21
PROBLEMS. POSSIBILITIES.
COMPLEXITY. CLARITY.
OBSTACLES. OPPORTUNITIES.
THE DIFFERENCE IS IMAGINATION.
THE DIFFERENCE IS AG.

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